Philippines Market: Tight Supply and Surging Freight Rates Supported Ore Prices to Fluctuate at Highs Philippine nickel ore prices rose sharply this week. In terms of prices, Philippine nickel ore CIF China quotes were $64-68/wmt for Ni 1.3% grade, $71-75/wmt for Ni 1.4% grade, and $78-82/wmt for Ni 1.5% grade, up $6 WoW. The average CIF price from the Philippines to Indonesia was $65.5/wmt for 1.3% grade and $72.5/wmt for 1.4% grade. Supply side, although the Philippines was transitioning into the dry season, mining hubs such as Surigao and Homonhon continued to see heavy rainfall due to a low-pressure area (LPA) east of Mindanao. Although Metro Manila and most parts of Luzon saw hot and sunny weather, the probability of rainfall exceeding 50 mm in Surigao and Caraga remained “very high.” Strong thunderstorms and scattered precipitation were expected to further intensify during March 9 to 13. Affected by the trough of the low-pressure area and the easterlies, persistent rainfall may continue to disrupt open-pit mining and vessel loading operations in southern regions. Market supply remained scarce. Driven by both supply tightness caused by cuts in Indonesia’s RKAB quotas and expected supply gaps, mainstream prices for Philippine nickel ore have surged recently. As of Friday, March 13, nickel ore inventory at Chinese ports stood at 5.23 million mt, down 500,000 mt WoW. Current total port inventory was equivalent to about 41,100 mt Ni in metal content. Demand side, China’s NPI prices rose this week, with spot transaction prices up about 1,089.9 yuan per nickel unit. As smelters had sufficient stockpiling earlier and showed limited acceptance of recently high-priced nickel ore, most were currently taking a wait-and-see stance. In terms of ocean freight rates, affected by a sharp jump in oil prices, nickel ore freight rates climbed, with the ocean freight rate from the Philippines to Lianyungang reaching $15/mt or above. Looking ahead, Philippine nickel ore prices are expected to continue fluctuating at highs. Indonesia Market: Under Weather Disruptions and RKAB Policy Clarification, Tight Supply Continued Indonesia's local nickel ore prices rose somewhat this week. Indonesia’s nickel ore benchmark price (HPM) for the first half of March was set at $17,104/dmt, down 3.21% MoM. According to SMM Indonesia nickel ore premium data, average premiums for 1.4%, 1.5%, and 1.6% grade laterite nickel ore were reported at $35, $39, and $39.5/wmt, respectively. Among them, the port arrivals under domestic trade price for 1.6% grade was $65.2-74.2/wmt. The simultaneous strengthening in premiums this month reflected both the release of smelters’ restocking demand and pessimistic expectations over RKAB quota cuts, while the delivered price of 1.2% grade limonite ore also edged up to $24-26/wmt. From the supply and demand fundamentals, as of March 13, Indonesia’s key nickel ore producing areas of Morowali, Konawe, and Halmahera were affected this week by strong thunderstorms and extremely high humidity of up to 94%. Weather continued to fluctuate, causing soil to become highly saturated and seriously hindering mine drying and transport operations. Morowali and Konawe will face a heavy rainfall system over the weekend with precipitation probability as high as 80%, while Halmahera, under high-humidity conditions, is expected to see rainfall intensity rebound again next Friday, with overall logistics capacity remaining constrained. At present, RKAB approvals for most small- and medium-sized mines remained pending. As existing quotas could no longer be used for next month’s production and sales, rising supply uncertainty was pushing nickel ore prices higher. Demand side, as some Indonesian smelters faced uncertainty over nickel ore resources and found it difficult to secure high-grade saprolite ore, nickel ore prices remained firm. To secure raw material supply, some smelters even raised trading bonuses. Overall, although the impact of the current MOMS system failure on mines had largely faded, overall nickel ore supply remained tight. Although spot supply of limonite ore was relatively sufficient, some related production lines were currently running at low load due to a tailings dam landslide accident at some MHP projects in an Indonesian industrial park, leading to temporary weakness in overall demand. However, considering concerns among some Indonesian smelters over RKAB approval uncertainty, raw material stockpiling demand from newly commissioned projects, and continued growth in demand from outer islands, limonite ore prices are expected to closely track saprolite ore and remain high. On the policy side, in response to recent market rumors that “production quotas (RKAB) will be uniformly supplemented by an additional 25%-30%,” Tri Winarno, Director General of Minerals and Coal at Indonesia’s Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (ESDM), clarified on March 3, 2026, that RKAB supplements would be based on individual assessments of enterprise production capacity and compliance, rather than a uniform proportional increase, and indicated that the approval process would start in H2 2026. Officials emphasized that this was a routine regulatory process for resource optimization, rather than a passive countermeasure to the previous output cap policy. Looking ahead, affected by the relatively slow progress of RKAB approvals, nickel ore prices are expected to remain more likely to rise than fall in April.

Philippine Ore Prices Strengthened Sharply, With Multiple Supply-Side Risks Supporting the Cost Floor Philippine nickel ore prices rose sharply this week. In terms of pricing, Philippine nickel ore CIF China: NI 1.3% grade at $58-63/wmt, NI 1.4% grade at $65-69/wmt, and NI 1.5% grade at $72-76/wmt, up $4 from the previous week. The average CIF price from the Philippines to Indonesia was $62.5/wmt for 1.3% grade and $69.5/wmt for 1.4% grade. Supply side, the Philippines was in a transition to the dry season, but affected by a developing low-pressure area (LPA) east of Mindanao, heavy rainfall continued in mining hubs such as Surigao and Homonhon Island. Although Metro Manila and most of Luzon had sunny and hot weather, the probability of weekly rainfall exceeding 50 mm in Surigao and the Caraga region was “high to extremely high,” and strong thunderstorms and scattered rainfall were expected to further intensify from March 9 to 13. Influenced by the LPA trough and the Dongfeng, this persistent rainy weather could continue to disrupt open-pit mining and vessel loading operations in the southern regions mentioned above. Currently, available spot cargo in the market was limited; coupled with the tightness in nickel ore supply and a potential demand gap driven by expectations of RKAB quota cuts in Indonesia, mainstream prices for Philippine nickel ore have risen markedly in recent periods. As of Friday, March 6, China’s port nickel ore inventory stood at 5.73 million mt, down 370,000 mt WoW. Current total port nickel ore inventory was equivalent to metal content of about 45,000 mt Ni. Demand side, domestic NPI prices rose this week, while spot transaction prices fell by about 1,092.6 yuan/nickel unit. From the perspective of smelters’ procurement departments, given ample earlier stockpiling and limited acceptance of recently extremely high-priced ore, most were currently staying on the sidelines. In terms of ocean freight rates, ocean freight rates rose sharply recently due to the situation in Iran, with the ocean freight rate from the Philippines to Tianjin Port at $11/mt. Looking ahead, Philippine nickel ore prices are expected to fluctuate at highs. Indonesia Market: Tight Supply and Demand Drove Premiums Higher; Authorities Clarified the RKAB Supplement Mechanism Indonesia's local nickel ore prices rose significantly this month. For the first half of March, the Indonesian nickel ore benchmark price (HPM) was set at $17,104/dmt, down 3.21% MoM. According to SMM data on Indonesia nickel ore premiums, the average premiums for 1.4%, 1.5%, and 1.6% grade laterite nickel ore were reported at $34, $38, and $38.5/dmt, respectively. Among them, the port arrivals under domestic trade price for 1.6% grade was $65.2–72.2/wmt. The dual strengthening of premiums this month reflected the release of smelters’ restocking demand and pessimistic expectations over RKAB quota reductions; meanwhile, the delivered price of 1.2% grade limonite ore also edged up in tandem to $24–26/wmt. Supply and demand fundamentals, as of March 6, Sulawesi and Halmahera were in a period of wild swings at the tail end of the rainy season, and intermittent heavy rainfall continued to hinder mine logistics. Morowali was currently overcast with extremely high humidity (94%); although rainfall remained light for now, a strong rainfall system was expected around March 13, with precipitation reaching 48 mm. Konawe likewise remained mostly cloudy with daily thunderstorms. Meanwhile, Halmahera was set to face a high-precipitation weekend, with the probability of thunderstorms as high as 65% on March 7–8. Although Indonesia’s Meteorology, Climatology, and Geophysics Agency (BMKG) forecast that the dry season would arrive earlier in April, the above areas were still unable to reach full-load mining and loading capacity due to highly saturated soil moisture and localized gusts. Under the dual pressure of tight tradable availability and uncertainty over RKAB quotas, some NPI smelters were forced to significantly step up procurement this month to secure raw material supply. While spot supply of limonite ore was relatively ample, a tailings dam landslide incident at certain MHP projects in an Indonesian industrial park kept the relevant production lines operating at low load, resulting in a phase of overall demand weakness. However, considering concerns among some Indonesian smelters over uncertainty in RKAB approvals, raw material stockpiling needs for newly commissioned projects, and continued growth in demand from outer islands, limonite ore prices were expected to closely track saprolite ore and remain elevated. Policy side, regarding recent widespread market rumors that “production quotas (RKAB) will be uniformly increased by an additional 25%–30%,” Tri Winarno, Director General of Minerals and Coal at Indonesia’s Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (ESDM), clarified on March 3, 2026 that RKAB increases would be based on individual assessments of enterprises’ production capability and compliance, rather than a uniform proportional increase, and indicated that the approval process would begin in H2 2026. Officials emphasized that this move was a routine regulatory process to optimize resources, not a passive offset against the previous production cap policy.

Philippines Market: Seasonal Downturn and Supply Constraints During the Chinese New Year holiday, nickel ore trading activity in the Philippines remained sluggish, with trading volume being scarce. This stagnation was primarily due to Chinese buyers being away during the holiday. Supply side, shipments are still concentrated in the northern regions, while shipments from Surigao and other southern areas remain at low levels. Although port inventory in China dropped slightly, smelter demand for Philippine ore remained weak during the holiday. This weak demand is attributed to the persistently high prices of Philippine nickel ore and the fact that many smelters built up sufficient inventory by the end of last year. Furthermore, the ongoing rainy season, which started in December, continues to impose supply constraints, providing steady upward pressure on prices. These high prices are further supported by increased market uncertainty regarding domestic supply from Indonesia in the coming months. Indonesia Market: Policy Uncertainty and RKAB Quota Constraints In the Indonesian market, participants remain in a "wait-and-see" mode, awaiting the full implementation of RKAB (mining quota) approvals. While several major miners have received approvals, many mines face quotas that are significantly reduced YoY. This trend supports the possibility that the government will enforce a stricter annual RKAB system in the short term, capping the national annual quota at approximately 260 million to 270 million wmt. As a result, many smelters now face urgent ore shortages, with only a few enterprises having sufficient inventory to sustain long-term operations. Although the domestic trade benchmark price (HPM) dropped slightly by 0.58% to $17,670/mt Ni in the second half of February due to the holiday impact, considering that the current rainy season in Indonesia persists in some regions, the approaching Ramadan will further limit production efficiency, and government approval uncertainties continue to block supply increases, the market generally expects that RKAB approval obstacles will be difficult to resolve in the short term. Intertwined with these multiple bullish factors, domestic Indonesian nickel ore prices and premiums are likely to show an upward trend.

【SMM Morning Brief Nickel 2.24】During the 2026 Chinese New Year holiday (February 15 to February 23), the domestic SHFE nickel market was closed, while LME nickel prices showed a rebound. The nickel sulphate market was relatively quiet during the holiday, with purchasing and sales activities largely halted. On the production side, some producers maintained operations, while others suspended production for maintenance.

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[6.18 Morning Meeting Minutes] Recently, the premium for saprolite ore in Indonesia's nickel ore market remained high, and the cost line of nickel ore for smelters remained firm. Additionally, the drive to switch production to high-grade nickel matte was not met. Currently, the main product of RKEF capacity is still high-grade NPI, and overall production may increase MoM from last month. Demand side, the proportion of long-term agreements for raw materials among major stainless steel mills is relatively high, and there has been a considerable trading volume of spot orders on the eve of this month. Currently, the demand for external purchases is weak.

[6.17 Morning Meeting Minutes] LME nickel prices declined slightly this week. Demand side, despite signs of recovery in nickel salt demand MoM in June, the overall demand remained in a sluggish phase. Affected by the presence of some raw material inventory and weak order demand, the inquiry and transaction activity of precursor companies for nickel salt were low during the traditional procurement period this week.

[Morning Meeting Minutes on June 16] Last week, nickel ore prices in the Philippines remained stable. The CIF prices of Philippine laterite nickel ore (NI1.3%) from the Philippines to China were $44-45/wmt, and the FOB prices were $34-36/wmt. The CIF prices of laterite nickel ore (NI1.5%) were $59-60/wmt, and the FOB prices were $49-51/wmt. In terms of supply and demand, in terms of supply, although there was precipitation at major nickel ore loading points in the Philippines, the continuous rainfall during the week significantly impacted the loading progress of nickel mines, and the loading progress was generally delayed compared to expectations.

This week, the average price of SMM 8-12% high-grade NPI was 942.3 yuan/mtu (ex-factory price, tax included), up 12.3 yuan/mtu MoM. However, the overall market price of high-grade NPI showed a weakening trend this week.

This week, Indonesian nickel ore limonite prices saw an increase. NPI prices still faces pressure from stainless steel market