[SMM Analysis: Samsung SDI’s “Contrarian Big Bet” — 25 Trillion Won Staked on Next-Generation Batteries Could Rewrite Global Energy Landscape] Samsung SDI disclosed a regulatory filing on July 3, announcing an investment of approximately 16 trillion won (about 88 billion yuan) into its Ulsan plant by 2040, to build large-scale production sites for all-solid-state batteries, LFP batteries for ESS, and sodium-ion batteries. A day earlier (July 2), the company had announced an investment of 9 trillion won into its Cheonan plant, for setting up a mother production line for next-generation battery technology verification and R&D facilities. Combined, the two investments total 25 trillion won, spanning a period of 14 years and lasting until 2040.

This week, rare earth oxide and metal prices outside China remained largely stable amid sluggish trading, while price fluctuations in China had not yet been transmitted. Industrial developments were intensive: India’s Mecwin teamed up with Germany’s Fraunhofer to lay out the entire NdFeB industry chain; Sweden approved a 25-year lease for the North Kärr rare earth mine, and Namibia’s Kieshoehe project verified deep potential. Iluka obtained an Australian government loan to advance the Eneabba refinery, and ULVAC, driven by surging demand in Europe and the United States, planned to build a new melting furnace production line in Japan. U.S. and Australian enterprises achieved breakthroughs in high-purity rare earth refining and hard disk recycling technologies, while Canada and Japan actively promoted cooperation on the critical minerals supply chain.

Canadian International Trade Minister Sidhu Maninder revealed in an interview that Ottawa and Tokyo are negotiating cooperation options, including joint mining projects, offtake agreements, and joint stockpiling for minerals such as graphite and gallium. "We are providing Japan with opportunities to develop Canada's critical minerals." He cited the graphite offtake agreement between Nouveau Monde Graphite and Panasonic as an example to illustrate this point, noting that graphite is a critical material for batteries. Sidhu is leading a large delegation to Tokyo, which includes nearly 300 representatives from 180 enterprises and organizations, marking the largest such mission by this North American country in the Asia-Pacific region. Japan and Western governments and manufacturers have been seeking secure supplies of rare earth minerals.

Panasonic announced at its Investor Day event held in Tokyo on June 8 that it will invest JPY 350 billion, or about KRW 3.323 trillion, to capture battery demand driven by the growth of AI data centers. Panasonic said it will use the investment to expand its supply chain not only in Japan but also in North America.

In 1983, Goodenough and Thackeray developed lithium manganate (LiMn₂O₄, LMO) on the basis of the lithium cobalt oxide system. With a unique spinel structure and three-dimensional lithium-ion diffusion channels, LMO delivers excellent rate capability, along with simple production procedures and high safety performance. Its core advantage lies in abundant manganese resources and extremely low costs, which are far superior to cobalt-based precious materials, making LMO a key material for the cost reduction of lithium-ion batteries. After four decades of industrial iteration, LMO has been phased out of high-end passenger vehicle power batteries by ternary materials. However, relying on outstanding cost performance, it has firmly occupied segmented markets such as electric two-wheelers, power tools and low-speed electrical equipment. The industry currently presents a structural divergence, with tight supply of high-end modified LMO products and intense homogenized competition among low-end products. 1. Technical Origin: Distinct Performance Advantages and Incurable High-Temperature Defects LMO has a theoretical specific capacity of 148mAh/g and a practical mass-production capacity of around 120mAh/g, with a working voltage of approximately 4.0V. Japanese enterprises took the lead in commercializing LMO in the 1990s. Early manufacturers including Sanyo and Panasonic widely applied LMO to power tools and household devices that prioritize safety. In 2010, the Nissan Leaf adopted a modified LMO cathode system, becoming one of the early large-scale mass-produced pure electric vehicles. It entered the entry-level new energy vehicle market with its cobalt-free, high-safety and low-cost characteristics. Nevertheless, LMO has inherent technical bottlenecks, primarily weak high-temperature cycling stability. When the ambient temperature exceeds 55℃, manganese dissolution and disproportionation reactions easily occur, leading to rapid capacity decay. The dissolved manganese ions also damage the solid electrolyte interphase (SEI) film on the negative electrode, continuously impairing battery service life. The industry has adopted modification methods such as element doping and surface coating to optimize performance, which can only alleviate capacity attenuation rather than completely solve the problem. With the rapid popularization of high-energy-density ternary materials, LMO has gradually withdrawn from the mainstream passenger vehicle power battery track, and shifted to low-speed lithium batteries and consumer electronics fields that prioritize cost and safety over extreme energy density. 2. 2026 Market Status: Cost-Driven Pricing and Sustained Structural Differentiation Currently, LMO prices are highly correlated with lithium carbonate quotations, which account for 60% to 70% of the total production cost of LMO. Fluctuations in lithium carbonate prices directly drive synchronous adjustments in the LMO market. The overall operating rate of the industry remains stable, while internal differentiation is prominent. High-end modified LMO products with long-cycle and high-voltage performance enjoy stable demand and tight supply. By contrast, ordinary low-end LMO products face severe homogenization and fierce market competition, squeezing profit margins of small and medium-sized manufacturers, most of whom maintain slim profits or break-even operations. The demand structure is clear and stable. Electric two-wheelers serve as the largest downstream application scenario, accounting for over 60% of total demand and forming the fundamental support of the LMO industry. Demand for power tools remains rigid and steady. Benefiting from high safety and low cost, LMO demand in small and medium-sized energy storage sectors is expanding steadily, becoming a major growth driver for the industry. Overall downstream demand maintains stable operation without significant fluctuations. 3. Market Outlook: Consolidate Segmented Market Foundation and Expand Manganese-Based Material Layout In the short term, LMO prices will continue to fluctuate in line with lithium carbonate trends and downstream restocking rhythms. High-end modified products are expected to maintain structural premiums due to high production and technical barriers. In the medium term, the industry pattern will continue to optimize. Leading enterprises will dominate the market relying on advantages in technology, production capacity and cost, while backward low-end capacity will be gradually eliminated, further increasing industrial concentration. In the long run, conventional LMO is unlikely to re-enter the high-end passenger vehicle power battery track, but its rigid demand in four core segmented fields including electric two-wheelers, low-speed vehicles, power tools and small-to-medium energy storage will remain solid. Meanwhile, the manganese-based industry keeps iterating. Manganese elements continue to penetrate the mainstream new energy market through lithium manganese iron phosphate and ternary materials. The overall importance of manganese-based materials in the lithium battery industrial chain continues to rise.

In 1983, Goodenough and Thackeray developed LMO (LiMn₂O₄) based on the LCO system. With its unique spinel structure and three-dimensional lithium-ion diffusion channels, LMO exhibits excellent C-rate performance and offers simple processing and high safety. Its core advantage lies in the abundant reserves and extremely low cost of manganese resources, far superior to refined cobalt, making it a key material for the cost reduction of lithium batteries. After four decades of industry iteration, LMO has been replaced by ternary cathode materials in the high-end EV power battery sector, yet thanks to its cost-effectiveness, it remains firmly rooted in niche markets such as electric two-wheelers, power tools, and low-speed equipment. The overall industry presents a structural landscape characterized by tight supply of high-end modified products and involution among low-end competitors.

[Client Orders Stalled, Panasonic EV Battery Production Delayed Again] Panasonic Holdings' subsidiary Panasonic Energy once again postponed its mass production plan for a new-type EV battery, as it is currently awaiting formal purchase orders from its major client. Panasonic Energy stated in July last year that it was waiting for the client's final feedback on the battery and planned to begin mass production by month-end of March. According to people familiar with the matter, as of now, Panasonic Energy has still not received production approval from the client.

[SMM Analysis: Solid-State Batteries at InterBattery 2026: A "Three-Kingdom Showdown" Unfolded, and Robots Became the New Battleground] From March 11 to 13, 2026, the 14th InterBattery 2026 was held at the COEX Convention & Exhibition Center in Seoul, South Korea. This exhibition was the largest and most representative battery industry trade show in South Korea, on par with China's CIBF and CLNB. A total of 667 enterprises from 14 countries, including China, the US, Germany, and Japan, participated in this year's event, with 2,382 booths. Against the backdrop of a temporary adjustment in global power battery demand, all-solid-state batteries became the undisputed technological focal point, while the explosive potential of emerging application scenarios such as humanoid robots and urban air mobility (UAM) was redefining the evolutionary direction of next-generation battery technologies.

Frontier Lithium announced that it has signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) with Panasonic Energy and Mitsubishi Corporation to explore potential collaboration in developing the North American battery supply chain. Under the agreement, Panasonic Energy has expressed interest in procuring lithium hydroxide from the PAK Lithium Project in Ontario, Canada. The project, which is being advanced through a joint venture between Frontier and Mitsubishi, plans to develop an upstream lithium mine and mill as well as a downstream lithium conversion facility. The project is expected to begin producing approximately 20,000 tonnes of battery-grade lithium salts annually starting in 2030.

Panasonic has launched a new home fuel cell system for detached houses, designed to boost solar self-consumption through HEMS‑based smart scheduling. The unit generates electricity and heat from gas, supports demand response, and can supply emergency power during outages.