SMM, March 4: Aluminum ingot: Today, Foshan A00 spot aluminum was affected by the geopolitical situation in Iran, with heightened fluctuations in market sentiment. Discounts edged down slightly before recovering. Mainstream quotations against the front-month contract were -170 yuan/mt, with some cargoes quoted at -180 yuan/mt, down 10-20 yuan/mt WoW from last Friday. Intraday transactions were concentrated at -20~-10 yuan/mt. A major buyer in Foshan swept up cargoes at -10 yuan/mt. Lower-priced cargoes were relatively abundant, and a small number of quotations rebounded to near parity. Downstream purchases were mainly driven by rigid demand, with deliveries to plants at -10 yuan/mt, and overall purchasing sentiment remained sluggish. Aluminum billet: Today, the average processing fee for SMM 6063 aluminum billet (Guangdong) was 180 yuan/mt for Φ90/100, and 130 yuan/mt for Φ120 and above, down 20 yuan/mt from yesterday. Affected by expectations of tightening overseas supply, the base price rose significantly, and aluminum billet processing fees were somewhat under pressure. Meanwhile, downstream post-holiday resumption progressed slowly, and purchases were mainly driven by rigid demand, with buyers pushing for lower prices. If aluminum futures prices continued to rise, suppliers would continue to raise processing fees, while market trading sentiment was relatively average.

[SMM Silicon-Based PV Morning Meeting Minutes] Silicon metal: Yesterday, SMM oxygen-blown #553 silicon in east China was at 9,000-9,200 yuan/mt, and 441# silicon was at 9,200-9,500 yuan/mt. Yesterday afternoon, silicon metal futures prices fluctuated sharply due to macro disruptions; the most-traded contract fell below 8,200 yuan/mt at its low and closed at 8,205 yuan/mt in late trading. Some silicon enterprises in northern China lowered their quoted prices, but they still did not match the price advantage of spot-futures traders, and downstream users mainly bought the dip. Polysilicon: N-type recharging polysilicon was quoted at 46-53 yuan/kg, the polysilicon price index was 49.17 yuan/kg, and polysilicon prices have declined significantly recently, mainly due to pressure from wafer price cuts and the impact of related meetings. At present, as the wafer segment has yet to stop falling, market sentiment is weak, and there may still be some downside room going forward.

SMM Morning Meeting Minutes: Overnight, LME copper opened at $12,843/mt, fluctuated downward in early trading to a low of $12,722/mt, then rose in a stepwise manner and climbed to $12,987/mt near the close, finally settling at $12,964.5/mt, down 0.92%. Trading volume reached 40,500 lots, and open interest reached 307,000 lots, down 4,847 lots from the previous trading day, mainly due to long position reductions. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE copper 2704 contract opened at 100,530 yuan/mt, then fluctuated downward to a low of 100,200 yuan/mt. Subsequently, the center of copper prices gradually moved higher and hit a high of 101,530 yuan/mt near the close, finally settling at 101,330 yuan/mt, down 1.05%. Trading volume reached 92,000 lots, and open interest reached 194,000 lots, down 3,792 lots from the previous trading day, mainly due to long position reductions.

[SMM Shanghai Spot Copper] Looking ahead to tomorrow, Shanghai spot copper discounts are expected to continue a mild recovery. Futures prices declined somewhat, and downstream enterprise orders increased. From the market structure perspective, the price spread between futures contracts for the next month and the C contract narrowed, and suppliers’ willingness to ship to delivery warehouse may decline. Supply side, domestic copper and previously price-locked imported cargoes continued to arrive; coupled with social inventory remaining at high levels, overall circulating supply in the market is ample. Demand side, downstream enterprises continued to advance work and production resumptions, providing some support to spot premiums. Overall, spot premiums showed a pattern of slow recovery and gradual stabilization.

Influenced by the Iran incident, gold prices gapped up at the opening of the Asian market yesterday (2nd), according to a report from HSBC Global Research. It is believed that rising oil prices pushed up gold prices, with the premium on the Shanghai Gold Exchange turning positive and reaching USD10 per ounce.

In the short term, a stronger US dollar weighed on precious metals prices. Silver prices remained in the doldrums today; the spot-futures price spread between TD and the most-traded SHFE silver contract narrowed, and spot premiums still showed signs of further declines. In Shanghai, suppliers of national-standard silver ingots lowered their premiums over TD to quotes of 900-1,100 yuan/kg, but mainstream bulk deals were concentrated at TD+900-1,000 yuan/kg. High-premium quotes saw only small volumes of less than 1 mt, yet trading volume remained moderate. In some regions, cargoes self-picked up from production site at smelters were quoted at premiums of 850-1,000 yuan/kg over TD and were concluded on rigid demand. Quoted prices for silver ingots in the market still varied significantly, with large differences across different deal sizes and brands. After silver prices weakened, downstream buyers feared further declines and purchased cautiously, staying on the sidelines; deals were generally concluded after negotiating and adjusting prices with suppliers, and market trading turned slightly quieter.

[SMM Stainless Steel Daily Review] SS Futures Fluctuate Rangebound; Bullish Sentiment for Spot Stainless Steel Set Back SMM News on March 4: SS futures showed a fluctuate upward trend, overall fluctuating rangebound with limited upside momentum, and closed at 14,205 yuan/mt before noon. In the spot market, affected by factors including weakening momentum for further upside in SS futures, unchanged guidance prices from major mainstream stainless steel mills yesterday, a sharp increase in expected stainless steel production schedules within the month, and the buildup of social inventory, bullish sentiment was set back and quotes loosened. The most-traded SS futures contract fluctuated downward. At 10:30 a.m., SS2604 was quoted at 14,245 yuan/mt, up 80 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Spot premiums for 304/2B in Wuxi were in the 275-475 yuan/mt range. In the spot market, Wuxi cold-rolled 201/2B coils were generally stable; for cold-rolled trimmed-edge 304/2B coils, the average price in Wuxi was stable while the average price in Foshan fell by 50 yuan/mt; cold-rolled 316L/2B coils in Wuxi were stable; for hot-rolled 316L/NO.1 coils, Wuxi quotes rose by 100 yuan/mt; cold-rolled 430/2B coils in both Wuxi and Foshan were stable. The stainless steel market is gradually recovering, and SS futures strengthened and moved higher. Driven by warming expectations for the traditional peak consumption season of “Golden March and Silver April” and the continued fermentation of news on Indonesian nickel ore, market participants’ bullish sentiment was strong. However, the recovery pace on the spot side was slow. Some traders and downstream end-users have not yet resumed operations, market trading activity has not fully recovered, and only a small number of rigid-demand orders were concluded during the week, presenting a clear pattern of “strong futures, weak spot.” On the inventory side, ...

As of now, the FOB price of Indonesian MHP nickel was $15,549/mt Ni, and the FOB price of Indonesian MHP cobalt was $49,819/mt Co. MHP payables (against the SMM battery-grade nickel sulphate index) were 85-86, and the MHP cobalt element payable indicator (against SMM refined cobalt (Rotterdam warehouse)) was 91. The FOB price of Indonesian high-grade nickel matte was $15,910/mt Ni.

SMM Nickel News, March 4: Macro and Market Updates: (1) Trump: After the 15% tariff deadline, we will gradually announce tariffs for different countries; we will raise tariff agreements for certain countries. (2) US Fed—① Kashkari: With the clouds of war looming, we originally expected one interest rate cut in 2026, but now it is uncertain. ② Williams: The US Fed will have to consider the spillover effects of the Iran issue on foreign markets and trading partners. He still believed rates were slightly above the neutral rate. Spot Market: On March 4, SMM #1 refined nickel prices rose 450 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. For spot premiums, the average for Jinchuan #1 refined nickel was 6,900 yuan/mt, down 50 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; the range for domestically mainstream brands of electrodeposited nickel was -300-400 yuan/mt. Futures Market: The most-traded SHFE nickel contract (2605) fluctuated and strengthened in early trading, and closed at 137,410 yuan/mt, up 0.12%. After a consecutive pullback, nickel prices showed initial signs of stabilizing. News that Indonesia may additionally supplement quotas weakened the earlier supply tightens narrative, but cost support remained solid. In the short term, the most-traded SHFE nickel contract was expected to fluctuate around 140,000 yuan/mt.

[SMM Daily Chrome Review: Ore-Side Uptrend Continued, with Cost Support for Ferrochrome] News on March 4, 2026: The ex-factory price of high-carbon ferrochrome in Inner Mongolia was flat MoM from the previous trading day…