Africa’s PGM industry remains highly concentrated in South Africa and Zimbabwe, which account for all 51 identified mining assets. South Africa dominates both active operations and the development pipeline, while Zimbabwe provides a smaller but strategically important second centre. Future supply growth is likely to be gradual and driven by a limited group of expansions and new mines.

[SMM Express] Southern Palladium has secured a 30-year mining right for its Bengwenyama PGM-chrome project on the Eastern Limb of South Africa's Bushveld Complex. The right was granted by the Department of Mineral and Petroleum Resources on August 7, 2026, marking a key regulatory milestone for the development, which is planned to recover both PGMs and chrome from UG2 ore. The development is particularly relevant to the chrome market following recent metallurgical testwork that lifted expected chromite recovery to 85.6%, from the 30%assumption in the earlier pre-feasibility study, potentially raising chrome concentrate production to about 1.054 million mt/y at the planned Stage 2 expansion. The mining right therefore strengthens the pathway for a future additional chrome supply source from South Africa's Bushveld Complex, although the project remains subject to further development and financing milestones.

[SMM Express] Zimplats shares have come under pressure as weakness in the platinum market weighs on investor sentiment towards the Zimbabwe-focused PGM producer. The decline reflects broader concerns over the impact of platinum-price movements on mining revenues and profitability. The pressure comes despite Zimplats continuing to advance its long-term investment programme in Zimbabwe, including mine development and processing capacity. The company’s latest disclosures show continued progress on expansion and local processing projects, highlighting its longer-term commitment to Zimbabwe’s PGM industry. For the broader PGM market, the development illustrates the sensitivity of producers to commodity-price volatility, with weaker prices potentially affecting cash flows, investment decisions and shareholder returns. At the same time, sustained investment in production and processing capacity could provide longer-term support if platinum-market conditions improve.

Zimbabwe's first lithium sulfate plant, built by China owned Prospect Lithium Zimbabwe (PLZ) at Goromonzi, became fully operational in May 2026, mines minister Polite Kambamura confirmed last week. The $400 million facility is Africa's first lithium sulfate plant. Carbonate unit nearing completion, per Kambamura; more sulfate capacity expected sector-wide ahead of the January 2027 concentrate export ban. Policy backdrop: Zimbabwe froze raw mineral exports in February 2026 ahead of the 2027 ban. President Mnangagwa reiterated the stance this week, citing zero tolerance for raw mineral exports going forward. Investment: Over $1 billion in lithium-sector investment logged since February 2026, per policy expert Tedious Ncube figure undisaggregated by project. Scope widens: 13 additional minerals (cobalt, PGMs, rare earths) join the export restriction from January 2027. Kambamura also flagged domestic battery/solar panel manufacturing as a longer-term goal, with no timeline attached. SMM View: Goromonzi's "fully operational" status (May 2026) is confirmed processing capacity log as verified, distinct from the carbonate unit (unconfirmed) and the $1bn investment figure (unverified, project-level breakdown pending).

Zimbabwe's first lithium sulfate plant, built by China-owned Prospect Lithium Zimbabwe at Goromonzi, reached full operational status in May 2026, mines minister Polite Kambamura confirmed last week. The $400 million facility is Africa's first lithium sulfate plant the first beneficiation announcement in Zimbabwe's sector to convert from construction to verified operating capacity. Carbonate unit still pre-commercial. PLZ's lithium carbonate refining facility is reported near completion but unconfirmed operational; more sulfate capacity is expected sector-wide ahead of Zimbabwe's full concentrate export ban, effective January 2027. Policy driver. Zimbabwe froze raw mineral exports in February 2026 ahead of the 2027 ban, forcing producers to build domestic processing capacity or lose export access. The restriction extends to 13 minerals beyond lithium, including cobalt, PGMs, and rare earths, from January 2027. Investment context. Over $1 billion in lithium sector investment has been logged since February 2026, per policy expert Tedious Ncube though the figure is undisaggregated by project and may blend processing and upstream mining capex. Battery manufacturing remains aspirational. Kambamura flagged domestic battery and solar panel production as a longer-term goal, with no capex, partner, or timeline attached. South Africa currently leads Africa's nascent battery-manufacturing capacity. SMM View: Goromonzi is the first verified beneficiation capacity milestone in Zimbabwe's lithium sector log as confirmed, distinct from carbonate and the $1bn aggregate unverified, project-level breakdown pending). Key watch point: whether sulfate or carbonate capacity build keeps pace with the January 2027 export cutoff or risks a supply disruption relevant to our Zimbabwe ban scenario model.

South Africa's chrome ore exports totalled 2,403.95kt in June 2026, easing a marginal 0.90% month-on-month but still standing 38.86% higher than a year earlier — the latest data point in a trend that has defined the country's chromium sector for well over a year: raw ore volumes holding firm or growing, even as the health of domestic ferrochrome smelting remains under separate and distinct pressure. Figure 1: South Africa chrome ore export volume and destination breakdown, June 2026 A Moderating, but Still Elevated, Trend June's figure sits within a narrow band that has now persisted for three consecutive months. Exports measured 2.47 million tonnes in April and 2.43 million tonnes in May, before easing further to 2.404 million tonnes in June — a gentle, incremental decline of roughly 2.7% across the quarter. Read in isolation, that could look like softening demand. Read against the year-on-year comparison, it looks more like a plateau at an unusually high level: April, May and June 2026 volumes have all come in well above 2025's equivalent months, with year-on-year growth running as high as 43% in May and still near 39% in June. In other words, the market has not cooled — it has simply stopped accelerating after an extended period of outsized growth. China's Grip on the Trade Tightens Further China absorbed 67.61% of South Africa's total June export volume, reaffirming its position as by far the largest buyer of South African chrome ore. That concentration is consistent with — and arguably an intensification of — the pattern seen through 2025, when China absorbed a record 12.5 million tonnes of South African chrome ore across the full year, up 23.8% year-on-year, driven by high operating rates at Chinese ferrochrome smelters feeding the country's stainless steel industry. With Chinese buyers taking more than two-thirds of a single month's exports, South Africa's chrome ore trade is now more dependent than ever on the health of one downstream market: Chinese ferrochrome production and, by extension, Chinese stainless steel demand. That concentration cuts both ways — it has underpinned South Africa's export volumes through a period of domestic smelting weakness, but it also leaves the country's ore exporters unusually exposed to any slowdown in Chinese furnace utilisation or stainless steel output. Singapore and the UAE: Trading Gateways, Not End-Use Markets Singapore (7.85%) and the UAE (7.82%) rounded out the top three destinations in June, together accounting for close to a sixth of total export volume. Neither country is a meaningful chrome ore consumer or ferrochrome producer in its own right; both are established global commodity trading and logistics hubs. The UAE in particular is widely positioned — including in the government's own economic development literature — as a re-export and re-distribution gateway to the wider Middle East and African markets, leveraging its logistics infrastructure rather than domestic industrial demand. Singapore plays a broadly similar role in Asian commodity trading flows. Their appearance in the top three is therefore best read as a signal of trading and blending activity — ore passing through intermediary hubs before final delivery — rather than genuine new demand centres competing with China for South African tonnage. The Structural Story Underneath the Numbers The persistence of strong ore exports alongside continued weakness in South Africa's own ferrochrome smelting capacity reflects a structural realignment in the country's chromium value chain rather than a short-term fluctuation. High grid electricity costs, an ageing domestic furnace fleet, and persistent logistics bottlenecks have steadily eroded the competitiveness of local beneficiation, encouraging producers to route an increasing share of mined chrome toward raw-ore export instead. That dynamic was starkly illustrated at the company level in Merafe Resources' H1 2026 production report, released in late July, which showed attributable ferrochrome production collapsing 75% to just 28,000 tonnes on extended smelter suspensions at Wonderkop and Boshoek, while chrome ore production held almost steady at 425,000 tonnes — the ore side of the business continuing to perform even as the alloy side went largely idle. At the same time, South Africa's supply base for chrome ore is arguably broadening rather than narrowing, even as dedicated ferrochrome capacity struggles. Several major platinum group metals producers — Sibanye-Stillwater, Northam Platinum, Eastplats, and project developer Southern Palladium at its Bengwenyama development — have all disclosed plans or results this year showing deliberate growth in chromite by-product recovery from their UG2 orebodies, treating chrome increasingly as a strategic parallel revenue stream rather than an incidental credit. That PGM-sector diversification adds a further source of tonnage to the ore-export pool, reinforcing the same pattern visible in the national trade data: more ore reaching the market, less of it being converted to ferrochrome domestically before it leaves the country. A Policy Response Still Working Through the System This is not an unnoticed trend within South Africa. In June 2025, Cabinet approved a coordinated set of interventions specifically aimed at curbing this shift — including realigning electricity tariffs for the ferrochrome industry, placing chrome ore under export control requiring an ITAC-administered export permit, and developing a chrome ore export tax alongside expanded Special Economic Zone incentives for smelters. The Department of Trade, Industry and Competition subsequently opened the export-tax and permitting framework for public comment in November 2025. More than six months on, June's trade data — still showing raw ore exports running nearly 39% above year-ago levels — suggests that whatever combination of permitting and tariff relief has been implemented so far has not yet meaningfully redirected material away from export and back into domestic beneficiation. Whether the fuller export tax framework, once finalised, changes that balance is likely to be one of the more consequential open questions for South Africa's chrome value chain over the remainder of 2026. Bottom Line June's export data confirms that South Africa's chrome ore trade remains structurally tilted toward raw shipments rather than domestic beneficiation, with China's share of that trade deepening rather than diversifying, and Singapore and the UAE functioning as trading conduits rather than genuine alternative markets. With PGM producers adding to the ore supply base even as ferrochrome smelters remain constrained, and government's export-control measures still working through implementation, the divergence between chrome ore and ferrochrome trade flows looks set to remain a defining feature of South Africa's chromium sector through the rest of 2026.

African Rainbow Minerals (ARM) plans to reopen Bokoni Platinum in South Africa with R15.2 billion in investment over seven years, targeting annual PGM production of up to 400,000 ounces from around 2030. The project follows a new feasibility study and a previous R2.2 billion impairment in ARM’s 2025 financial year. The restart has raised investor concerns over capital intensity and near-term cash generation, particularly if ARM also proceeds with the Two Rivers Merensky project. RMB Morgan Stanley estimates that funding both projects could push ARM into negative free cash flow for two to three years. ARM shares reportedly fell sharply following the Bokoni announcement. However, the project could benefit from improving PGM market fundamentals. South African PGM production is declining while renewed automotive demand, supported by slower-than-expected EV adoption, could strengthen prices. ARM entered the project with a strong balance sheet, including R9.5 billion in net cash at end-June. Bokoni's restart could add significant future PGM supply, but its high capital requirements and challenging mining history create execution and cash-flow risks for ARM.

[SMM Express] AI-driven data centre expansion is emerging as a new source of platinum group metals (PGMs) demand that could further tighten markets already facing supply deficits. Valterra Platinum reportedly estimates AI-linked data centre demand for PGMs at 200,000–400,000 ounces, with potential to increase fivefold by 2030. The additional demand is particularly relevant for platinum and ruthenium, which are already forecast to remain in deficit in 2026. Platinum's full-year deficit forecast has been raised to 297,000 ounces, while above-ground stocks are expected to fall below three months of global demand cover by year-end. Meanwhile, hybrid vehicle growth is helping sustain automotive PGM demand despite rising battery-electric vehicle adoption. However, palladium remains an exception, with its weaker performance linked largely to an unresolved US trade dispute rather than AI-related demand.

[SMM Express] UBS has identified improving medium-term prospects for platinum group metals (PGMs), citing constrained primary supply, ongoing industry restructuring and stronger-than-expected demand from hybrid vehicles. Although PGM prices have softened in recent months amid weaker investor sentiment and demand concerns, the bank expects supply-side constraints to provide underlying support to the market. The investment bank noted that hybrid vehicle adoption could sustain autocatalyst demand for platinum, palladium and rhodium for longer than many market participants currently anticipate. While PGM prices are expected to remain range-bound in the near term, improving market fundamentals could support a gradual recovery. Against this backdrop, UBS named Valterra as its preferred PGM mining investment, highlighting the company's strong balance sheet, high-quality asset portfolio and leverage to a potential recovery in metal prices. The bank believes producers with resilient operations and financial strength are best positioned to benefit as supply tightens and market conditions improve.

[Platinum and Palladium Price Review and Forecast] This week (from July 31 to August 6), platinum and palladium prices moved sideways before breaking out and rebounding strongly, ending the week with a sharp overall gain. At the start of the week, signals from US-Iran negotiations showed renewed divergence, with Trump and the Iranian military each holding their own stance on navigation in the Strait of Hormuz. The Middle East situation remained in a stalemate. This, combined with the continuation of a hawkish tone from the US Fed's July FOMC meeting, where rates were held steady but internal division intensified (9:3 vote, with three voters advocating a rate hike), kept the US dollar and Treasury yields high. As a result, platinum and palladium futures mainly consolidated. Mid-week, US Treasury Secretary Bessent signaled that a deal between the US and Iran, including the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, was likely on August 4 or 5. International oil prices plummeted overnight, easing inflation expectations and driving down expectations for US Fed rate hikes (the probability of a September rate hike fell from around 72% to near 58%). Additionally, the US Commerce Department's plan to add 14 downstream derivatives of steel, aluminum, and copper to the Section 232 tariff scope raised the tail-end premium for platinum group metals (PGMs) trade protection. Combined with the release of oversold short positions and the return of safe-haven funds after platinum and palladium had cumulatively plunged over 45% year-to-date, the most-traded NYMEX platinum and palladium contracts both surged about 7.4% in the night session on August 4, marking their largest single-day gain since February 2026. This directly drove the domestic market to open higher with a gap and rally strongly on August 5, with the GFEX most-traded platinum contract settling at 441.15 yuan/g and the palladium contract at 329.65 yuan/g, both hitting new highs since early July. At the end of the week (August 6), the US ADP employment data for July showed only 44,000 new jobs, below expectations and the lowest this year. The weakness in small nonfarm data further dampened rate hike expectations. This, along with Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister's statement that the Hormuz navigation agreement with Oman was near finalization (with the new temporary route expected to be available for 2-4 months) and continued easing US-Iran tensions, kept platinum and palladium slightly higher, consolidating at highs. However, on the same day, US Fed Governor Cook reiterated readiness to raise rates if inflation didn't slow, signaling that hawkish cues remained. Platinum and palladium continued to consolidate at highs for the short term. The GFEX most-traded platinum contract hit a weekly high of 444.5 yuan/g and a low of 398.7 yuan/g, closing at 433.5 yuan/g as of August 6, for a weekly gain of about 8.4% for platinum. The most-traded palladium contract hit a weekly high of 333.75 yuan/g and a low of about 300.4 yuan/g, closing at 325.75 yuan/g as of August 6, for a weekly gain of about 6.5% for palladium. In the spot market, driven by the sharp single-day futures rally on August 5, spot discounts for platinum and palladium widened slightly compared to the previous week. Spot prices lagged behind in the rally due to the spot-futures linkage. Mainstream quotations for platinum were quoted at discounts of about 4-2 yuan/g against the most-traded contract, and palladium discounts were about 3.5-1.5 yuan/g. As futures prices kept rising, downstream buying interest remained low, with bid-ask spreads widening. Trader warehouse warrant quotes were relatively firm, concentrated around discounts of 2 yuan/g against the GFEX most-traded contract. Consumption in automotive catalysts and industrial sectors stayed weak, with end-users mainly restocking on a need basis. Overall, spot market consumption for platinum and palladium continued to be sluggish throughout the week. Looking ahead, platinum and palladium prices are currently in a rebound phase following oversold corrections, with both short-term upward drivers and downward constraints coexisting. On the bullish side, after deep corrections, short positions have been partially released, and the logic of fund inflows and oversold recovery remains in place. If the US-Iran navigation agreement is substantively finalized, oil prices and inflation expectations retreat further, and expectations for US Fed rate hikes converge, the valuation recovery for precious metals will continue. Trade protection expectations from Section 232 tariffs form a mid-term support floor. However, excessive optimism about the upside room and sustainability is not warranted. The core constraints are: first, this rebound is mainly driven by "international price correlations + oversold recovery fund flows," and the supply-demand fundamentals haven't undergone a reversal, with institutions widely questioning sustainability; second, the US Fed's hawkish stance remains unshaken, and the 9:3 divide in the July FOMC shows rate hike expectations for this year have not reversed, with the probability of a September rate hike still high, capping rates; third, doubts about the US-Iran agreement's implementation and escalating Houthi blockades in the Red Sea mean oil prices and inflation expectations could fluctuate again, potentially restarting a negative feedback loop. Future price direction still awaits further guidance from the evolution of US-Iran tensions, actual navigation in the Strait of Hormuz, US inflation data for August, and the US Fed's policy path. [Platinum and Palladium Weekly Data Comments] COMEX platinum and palladium inventories showed divergent trends this week. The earlier consistent destocking trend for platinum inventories slowed down temporarily. Total inventory remained around 399,000 oz (August 6), with registered inventory accounting for about 48%, indicating significantly weakened destocking momentum. The key reason was that after a sharp price rebound (over 7% in a single day), industrial buying turned cautious, with market entry pace slowing down and low-price restocking demand receding. For palladium, the inventory buildup trend continued, with total inventory at about 255,000 oz (August 5), with registered inventory accounting for nearly 80%. Buffer stocks in US warehouses were near a one-year high, keeping the supply oversupply pattern unchanged. In terms of imports, platinum imports in June rose YoY again; palladium imports also picked up slightly, with the overall level significantly higher than from 2023 to 2025. China's platinum and palladium imports have grown rapidly since early 2026, and currently, domestic supply is relatively ample. Additionally, export restrictions on platinum and palladium make it hard to absorb the domestic surplus through exports. [Platinum Group Compounds] This week, chloroplatinic acid and palladium chloride were stable at first before rising sharply. In the early part, trading was weak due to downstream maintenance, but hydrogen energy demand provided some support for platinum-based compounds. Driven by soaring platinum and palladium prices overseas, domestic compound prices surged and hit recent highs, but actual downstream demand remained weak. Chloroplatinic acid and palladium chloride prices followed a two-stage trajectory this week, stable initially before surging. In the first stage, from July 30 to August 4, they mainly moved sideways in a narrow range. Chloroplatinic acid fluctuated narrowly around 162-167 yuan/g, and palladium chloride consolidated in the 187-191.5 yuan/g range. Spot market trading was sluggish, with high temperatures causing concentrated maintenance in automotive, pharmaceutical, and petrochemical sectors, which dragged down spot transactions. In the hydrogen energy sector, peak deliveries of hydrogen production equipment provided some support for platinum-based catalyst demand, with platinum compound deliveries slightly outperforming palladium. In the second stage, from August 5 to 6, prices surged violently. On August 5, chloroplatinic acid jumped to 177 yuan/g, and on August 6, it extended gains to 180 yuan/g, for a weekly change of 18 yuan/g, or a 11.11% weekly gain. Palladium chloride rose to 195.5 yuan/g on August 5, up 7 yuan/g, and then broke through 200 yuan/g to reach 204 yuan/g, for a weekly change of 17 yuan/g, or a 9.09% weekly gain, both hitting recent highs. This was mainly driven by the surge in overseas platinum and palladium, which transmitted to higher domestic raw material prices, boosting short-term bullish sentiment and pulling up compound raw material prices. However, from the overall downstream demand perspective, trading was quite sluggish, and demand continued to show a weak trend.