This week, the weekly operating rate of leading downstream aluminum processing enterprises in China was flat MoM at 64.7%. such as can stock, energy storage, and automobiles. However, aluminum prices fluctuated at highs, exports to the Middle East were impeded, and some end-use consumption recovered less than expected, limiting upside room for the operating rate. The industry exhibited the characteristics of “steady with progress and structural divergence.”

[SMM Aluminum Price Weekly Review: Supply Shortages Outside China Supported Prices to Hold Up Well, China Focused on the Turning Point of Aluminum Ingot Social Inventory]

SMM, April 16: Dealers in Hunan reported that end-use consumption in the e-bike lead-acid battery market remained sluggish, with retailers purchasing cautiously. Current battery inventory stood at approximately one month. There were no signs of sales promotions in the battery wholesale market, with the mainstream model 48V20Ah priced at 380-400 yuan/set. Manufacturers in Jiangxi reported that the e-bike lead-acid battery market was in the off-season, with finished product orders continuing to weaken and battery inventory accumulating. Factory operating rates had dropped to 60-70%. Additionally, lead prices surged significantly today, and raw material lead procurement remained on the sidelines. Manufacturers in Jiangsu reported that e-bike replacement demand was weakening, while OEM orders for complete vehicles were moderate. Factory operating rates were maintained at around 90%, with raw material lead procurement primarily through long-term contracts.

[SMM Aluminum News Flash] This week, the operating rate of leading secondary aluminum enterprises pulled back slightly WoW, mainly dragged down by weakening demand. Currently, downstream enterprises generally maintain just-needed restocking with low willingness to accept high-priced supplies, and the overall market trading atmosphere remains subdued. On the cost side, primary aluminum prices held up well this week, pushing up production costs for enterprises. Some producers raised their quotes accordingly; however, constrained by lackluster demand follow-through, the price increase of finished products was notably weaker than that on the aluminum scrap side, and industry profit margins remained under pressure and continued to narrow. In the short term, operating rates still face downward p

[SMM Coking Coal and Coke Daily Brief] Supply side, coking enterprises saw moderate shipments, coke inventory remained at low levels, and most coking enterprises maintained normal production levels, keeping coke supply relatively stable. Demand side, downstream steel mills operated at a good pace, daily average hot metal production increased, and some steel mills with low inventory showed relatively strong willingness to restock coke. In summary, the coke supply-demand pattern was basically balanced, but cost declines were limited. The second round of coke price increase is still expected to materialize, and the short-term coke market is expected to hold up as generally stable with slight rise.

[SMM Magnesium Weekly Review: Magnesium Market Pulled Back on Weakness, Export Prices Rose Against the Trend on Policy Impact] The magnesium market was overall in the doldrums this week. Magnesium ingot quotes in major producing areas fell 350 yuan/mt WoW to 17,000-17,150 yuan/mt. Downstream buyers showed strong wait-and-see sentiment, and panic selling accelerated the price decline, with the market entering a phase of rational pullback. Export side, affected by tightened customs supervision on non-compliant exports and dual-use items, FOB quotes rose against the trend by $50/mt on Thursday to $2,500-2,600/mt, with domestic and overseas market trends clearly diverging. Magnesium powder and magnesium alloy prices pulled back along with raw materials, while processing fees remained stable, and the market overall showed strong supply and weak demand. Magnesium prices are expected to see gradually narrowing declines in the short term, with subsequent attention needed on changes in export policies and downstream purchase willingness.

As of April 14, the operating rate of 50 major construction material-producing electric furnace steel mills nationwide was 42%, up 0.58% WoW; the capacity utilization rate was 42.8%, up 0.2% WoW; daily average production of construction materials was 95,300 mt, up 400 mt WoW. During the survey period (April 7–April 14), operating rates of electric furnace mills nationwide showed mixed changes. One electric furnace mill in southwest China resumed production as planned, driving the overall operating rate to edge up. However, two electric furnace mills in east China and south China saw their profitability fall into loss territory due to steel scrap costs continuing to fluctuate at highs while finished product prices weakened, leading to increased pressure on production and operations, with some actively reducing operating hours. Overall, the overall profitability of electric furnace steel mills pulled back WoW, and finished product shipments were lukewarm. If profitability continues to deteriorate going forward, more electric furnace enterprises are expected to reduce operating hours or lower production loads, and the electric furnace operating rate may see a phased pullback.

Futures: Overnight, LME lead opened at $1,936.5/mt, fluctuated upward during the Asian session with a low of $1,935.5/mt, and continued to rise firmly into the European session, ultimately closing at $1,966.5/mt, up 1.65%. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE lead 2605 contract opened higher with a gap at 16,750 yuan/mt, briefly touched a low of 16,745 yuan/mt before fluctuating upward to a high of 16,860 yuan/mt, and ultimately closed at 16,840 yuan/mt, up 1.05%. Macro front: On Wednesday, Trump said the war he launched with Israel was "nearing its end," and the White House was also optimistic about reaching a deal. Bessent said the US would no longer extend sanctions exemptions on Iranian and Russian oil. Foreign media: Iran proposed allowing free passage for ships on the Omani side of the Strait of Hormuz. China's Ministry of Commerce: Since the beginning of this year, trade-in sales of consumer goods exceeded 500 billion yuan. China's Ministry of Foreign Affairs: China and the US maintained communication on US President Trump's visit to China. The PBOC and the State Administration of Foreign Exchange: The overseas lending leverage ratio for wholly foreign-owned banks in China, Sino-foreign joint venture banks in China, and branches of foreign banks in China was raised from 0.5 to 1.5. : Yesterday, SHFE lead showed a fluctuating upward trend. Suppliers had slight divergences in shipments—some maintained discounts for shipments, while others quoted relatively firmly as delivery inventory pressure eased. Mainstream origin quotes were at -25 yuan/mt to +100 yuan/mt against SMM #1 lead, ex-works. Secondary lead side, smelters concentrated on production cuts and suspensions, with regional supply limited. After lead prices rose, smelters showed slightly better shipment sentiment. Secondary refined lead was quoted at -25 yuan/mt to +25 yuan/mt against the SMM #1 lead average price, ex-works. Downstream enterprises had limited rigid demand, and some shifted to a wait-and-see attitude yesterday after purchasing on dips the previous day, leading to decreased trading activity in the spot market. Inventory: On April 15, LME lead inventory decreased by 875 mt to 275,975 mt. As of April 13, SMM five-region lead ingot social inventory edged up. Lead Price Forecast for Today: Supply and demand in the spot lead market were both tepid. Downstream battery producers had poor orders, and enthusiasm for lead ingot procurement was weak. Primary lead smelters maintained relatively stable production, but secondary lead enterprises saw declining operating rates due to loss pressure. In addition, overseas geopolitical issues persisted and remained volatile. If a ceasefire between the US and Iran is successfully reached, it is expected to have a positive impact on base metals; otherwise, lead prices are expected to continue consolidating. Data source statement: Data other than public information is derived from public information, market communication, and SMM's internal database models, processed by SMM for reference only and does not constitute decision-making advice.

Premiums in the Tianjin region have consistently remained at a discount. How will premiums trend going forward?

[SMM Analysis]Return to Work Drove a Sharp Rise in the Operating Rate of Secondary Aluminum Producers in March, Expected to Decline in April