SMM, July 23: PV Aluminum Extrusions: This week, the operating rate among sampled PV frame enterprises continued to hold up well. According to SMM, downstream module enterprises' Q3 production schedules are expected to be slightly higher than Q2 levels, primarily driven by preparations for the year-end installation rush for centralized PV projects in China and the supplement of export orders. However, overall growth remained conservative, with limited MoM increases and no clear signs of significant volume expansion. A leading PV frame enterprise reported it would maintain full capacity through July, while another noted its orders on hand have been scheduled through the end of Q3. Overall, the operating rate of PV frame enterprises is expected to consolidate on a strong note in the short term. Raw Material Prices: During the period (July 20–July 23, 2026), the weekly average price of SMM A00 aluminum ingot was 23,175 yuan/mt, up 0.1% from the previous period. Overall, the macro front sentiment improved slightly recently. Persistent geopolitical risk premium in the Middle East and continuous destocking of aluminum ingots in China jointly underpinned aluminum prices. However, sustained capacity additions for aluminum outside China over the long term, weak end-use demand in China's traditional sectors, and recurring macro-level uncertainties exerted visible pressure on aluminum's upside room. In summary, aluminum prices are expected to maintain a consolidation pattern in the short term. The most-traded SHFE aluminum contract is expected to trade within a range of 22,800–23,500 yuan/mt next week, while LME aluminum is expected to trade within $3,150–$3,220/mt.

[SMM Weekly Survey on Aluminum Downstream: This Week, Aluminum Processing Operating Rate Dropped 0.2 Percentage Point to 61.1%, Off-Season Effect Deepens and Continues] Overall, as the off-season effect deepens, downward pressure on the industry's operating rate remains unabated. Export orders for aluminum plate/sheet and strip and aluminum foil provide some temporary support, while other sub-sectors are expected to remain in the doldrums in the short term.

In H1 2026, China’s sulphur market experienced a full transmission chain of “import collapse – output pressure – export stagnation”. Key figures: Production: National sulphuric acid output in January–May fell 1.6% y‑o‑y, with significant declines in traditional phosphate fertiliser producing provinces like Hubei, Guizhou, and Yunnan, while Anhui and other smelter‑acid‑concentrated regions saw growth. Exports: Sulphuric acid exports practically halted in June......

This week, spot lithium carbonate prices moved sideways in a narrow range. The futures market saw intensifying volatility, with the most-traded contract 2609's price range consolidating from 141,400-154,800 yuan/mt at the week's start to 137,200-148,500 yuan/mt. After hitting a weekly low of 136,800 yuan/mt mid-week, prices rebounded, while open interest continued to decline. Market transactions reflected a pattern of downstream users buying the dip and purchasing as needed, while upstream producers held prices firm and held back from selling. Upstream lithium chemical plants showed strong sentiment to hold prices firm and hold back from selling spot orders, with persistently weak willingness to sell and firm quotes, keeping in-factory inventory at low levels. Downstream material plants continued their strategy of dip-buying and purchasing as needed, with purchase willingness strengthening when prices fell to relatively low levels, though large-scale restocking had yet to emerge. Trader inventories continued to destock due to downstream just-in-time procurement and lithium chemical plants holding back from selling. Overall, market inquiries and actual transactions remained relatively stable, while the spot-futures price spread continued to strengthen. Supply-side production maintained a decreasing trend, with upstream inventory staying low. This week, lithium carbonate production continued its decreasing trend, mainly because some spodumene and lepidolite-based smelters underwent maintenance, coupled with gradually tightening circulation of spodumene ore, leading to a decline in the overall operating rate of lithium chemical plants. Looking at inventory changes: upstream lithium chemical plants showed noticeable sentiment to hold back from selling, keeping in-factory inventory at low levels; downstream material plants continued their just-in-time procurement strategy by buying the dip, with inventory remaining largely stable; traders' inventory continued to destock under the impact of downstream purchasing as needed and lithium chemical plants holding back from selling. Looking ahead, short-term lithium carbonate prices are expected to maintain a slight upward consolidation trend within a range. Supply-side, ongoing maintenance at some lithium chemical plants and tightening spodumene ore circulation will lend support to prices; demand-side, downstream dip-buying continues, but large-scale centralized stockpiling has yet to appear. Currently, tightening spot circulation and a strengthening spot-futures price spread provide bottom support for prices. Close attention should still be paid to the August production schedule expectations of downstream players and whether there are expectations of further tightening in spot lithium carbonate circulation.

[SMM Aluminum Bulletin] This week, the coal tar pitch market continued to weaken. As of Thursday, the average price of coal tar pitch was 4,705 yuan/mt, down 3.35% WoW. On the cost side, high-temperature coal tar remained weak; operating rates at coal tar deep-processing enterprises increased, leaving ample commercial pitch supply in circulation and an overall loose supply picture. Downstream, prebaked anode consumption stayed rigid, supported by high aluminum capacity, but with raw material inventories at high levels, buyers pushed for lower prices and insisted on need-based purchasing. Weak demand from secondary downstream sectors such as carbon black failed to provide a boost, and trading was thin. In the near term, under loose supply-demand conditions, coal tar pitch will likely consolidate at lows on a weak note.

This week (7.17-7.23), the machine operating rate of the enamelled wire industry declined WoW...

SMM July 23: Raw material side: This week, trading in China’s petroleum coke market was slightly divergent, with the low-sulphur petroleum coke market performing well while mid- and high-sulphur petroleum coke came under some pressure. On the refinery side, major refineries collectively held prices firm to support the market. CNOOC raised its petroleum coke offers steadily across its refineries, with overall trading activity markedly improving; PetroChina’s in-factory inventory of low-sulphur petroleum coke in north-east China was at a low level, and with centralized release of downstream rigid demand, EXW prices climbed steadily, completing staggered price increases at multiple sites on July 22. For refineries under Sinopec, downstream purchasing enthusiasm improved recently, providing some support to coke prices, which were raised slightly by 20-100 yuan/mt. Local refineries, on the other hand, saw divergent overall shipment performance. For low-sulphur petroleum coke, driven by price increases from major refineries, prices edged up; for mid- and high-sulphur petroleum coke, downstream purchasing willingness was moderate, and the market was mainly under pressure. The latest SMM data showed that the NE China #1 petroleum coke spot price index was recorded at 4,415.73 yuan/mt, up 2.04% WoW; the Shandong #2 petroleum coke spot price index was recorded at 4,237.31 yuan/mt, up 1.13% WoW; the Shandong #3 petroleum coke spot price index was recorded at 3,696.83 yuan/mt, down 1.87% WoW; and the Shandong #4 petroleum coke spot price index was recorded at 2,003.69 yuan/mt, down 0.74% WoW. On the supply side, some units that were under maintenance earlier gradually resumed production this week, and coking operating rates slowly recovered. On the demand side, increased purchasing enthusiasm in the downstream anode material market supported the low-sulphur petroleum coke market, which held up well. The market for carbon used in aluminum production still held a wait-and-see sentiment, and high-priced products saw insufficient downstream purchasing willingness, hindering the transmission of price increases. Coupled with geopolitical instability, continuously climbing crude oil prices provided cost support. In the short term, petroleum coke prices are expected to consolidate, with continuing divergence across grades. The coal tar pitch market trend remained subdued this week. As of Thursday this week, the average price of coal tar pitch was 4,705 yuan/mt, down 3.35% WoW. On the cost side, high-temperature coal tar continued to weaken, tar deep-processing enterprises raised operating rates, commercial pitch was in ample supply, and overall supply was loose. Downstream, although prebaked anode consumption remained rigid supported by high aluminum capacity, raw material inventory was at high levels, and buyers pushed for lower prices while sticking to need-based purchases. Demand from secondary downstream sectors such as carbon black was sluggish and failed to provide a boost, resulting in thin trading. In the short term, under a loose supply-demand balance, coal tar pitch is likely to consolidate at lows on a weak note. Overall, cost support for prebaked anode held firm this week. Supply side, prebaked anode enterprises maintained a production pace of producing based on sales. New anode projects in regions such as Xinjiang and Guangxi came on stream successively, with new capacity being released continuously. Meanwhile, some enterprises saw their operating rates pull back slightly due to maintenance, but overall, the industry’s supply capability improved steadily, and supply flexibility further increased. Demand side, China’s operating aluminum capacity stayed high, providing stable rigid support for prebaked anode consumption. On the export front, new aluminum projects in Indonesia continued to come on stream, driving sustained improvement in China’s anode exports. Overall, new prebaked anode supply in China was continuously realized, high operating rates in downstream aluminum effectively underpinned domestic demand, and the export market saw marginal improvement. The industry’s supply-demand balance remained generally stable, but with continuous release of new capacity, supply growth slightly outpaced demand growth, and the competitive landscape tended to intensify. Brief Comment: This week, the raw material market trends for prebaked anode in China showed intensified divergence: the petroleum coke market saw varying regional performance but overall fundamentals remained supportive, while the pullback in coal tar pitch prices slightly dragged on anode costs, and overall production costs remained stable. According to SMM data, as of July 23, China’s prebaked anode production cost was 5,556.7 yuan/mt, down 0.20% from last Thursday. Looking ahead, on the cost side, petroleum coke is expected to have strong bottom support, coal tar pitch is likely to consolidate on a subdued note, and overall raw material support for anode costs will be moderate. On the supply-demand front, high operating rates at domestic aluminum enterprises will continue to support anode domestic demand, and marginal recovery in export orders brings growth; however, the concentrated release of new capacity and continuous supply expansion intensify market competition. Going forward, attention should be paid to the pace of new capacity releases and the divergence between petroleum coke and coal tar pitch on the cost side.

SMM July 23 News: This week, trading sentiment in China's aluminum fluoride market weakened, and prices held steady overall. As of now, SMM's mainstream quotation for aluminum fluoride was 10,950-11,400 yuan/mt; the cryolite market also stayed stable, with SMM's cryolite quotation at 7,000-9,000 yuan/mt, showing no significant fluctuations. Raw material side: This week, aluminum fluoride raw material prices diverged, while comprehensive production costs stayed high. The upstream 97% fluorite wet powder market consolidated on a strong note, with mainstream delivered prices of 3,150-3,500 yuan/mt and persistent regional price spreads. Supply side, domestic mine safety supervision tightened, standardized controls on underground mining operations were implemented, and technological transformation and rectification cycles extended, chronically constraining effective capacity release. Combined with port freight restrictions during Mongolia's Naadam festival, imported fluorite ore supply saw periodic reductions, widening the domestic raw material supply gap and providing strong support for fluorite prices. Meanwhile, downstream hydrofluoric acid enterprises' procurement enthusiasm recovered slightly, with restocking for rigid demand increasing. Supply-demand dual positives reinforced fluorite's upward trend. For supporting raw materials, the domestic aluminum hydroxide market drifted lower, with a weighted average price of 1,687 yuan/mt, down 0.18% MoM; the sulphuric acid market high-end prices loosened, and the transaction center moved lower steadily. After offsetting the mixed raw material changes, aluminum fluoride's comprehensive production cost remained elevated. Supply side: The industry remained stuck in a negative cycle of high costs, production losses, and low operating rates. Rising fluorite prices further worsened enterprises' losses on production, with losses across the industry continuing to widen. Most enterprises stepped up equipment maintenance and flexible production cuts, and the overall operating rate kept falling. Currently, enterprises mostly adopted strategies to contract operations, prioritizing delivery of long-term contract orders, with no new production schedules planned. Effective supply growth in the market was limited, and spot cargo was tight overall. Demand side: Downstream aluminum industry's operating capacity stayed high, providing rigid demand support for aluminum fluoride and underpinning market bottom prices. However, aluminum enterprises' overall procurement sentiment remained cautious and conservative, mainly restocking in small quantities for rigid demand. Strong sentiment to push for lower prices and wait-and-see prevailed, with no concentrated restocking or additional procurement, which was insufficient to drive market prices higher. Brief review: This week, aluminum fluoride raw material trends diverged. Fluorite strengthened and lifted the cost floor, while aluminum hydroxide and sulphuric acid pulled back slightly, offsetting some pressure. Industry overall cost remained elevated, enterprise profit margins were hard to recover, and production motivation stayed weak. Currently, tug-of-war between upstream and downstream was intense, lacking drivers for one-sided price moves, and market transactions were mainly sporadic rigid demand orders. Short-term aluminum fluoride and cryolite prices are expected to continue the stalemate with stable quotes. Subsequent focus will be on tracking trends in raw material cost fluctuations such as fluorite, as well as marginal changes in downstream aluminum enterprises' procurement pace.

[Secondary Aluminum and Aluminum Scrap Weekly Review: Cost Support and Weak Demand in a Tug-of-War; Short-Term ADC12 Prices Maintain Sideways Movement] This week, ADC12 prices continued to move sideways. As of today, the SMM ADC12 quotation was adjusted down by 100 yuan/mt from last Thursday to 24,000 yuan/mt. During the week, cost support from aluminum scrap remained, and enterprises showed little willingness to voluntarily cut prices. However, constrained by weak off-season demand, prices lacked upward momentum. The overall market exhibited a tug-of-war pattern characterized by "selling at stable prices and transacting based on orders.

[SMM Tungsten Analysis: Tug-of-war Between Mine-side Price Holding and End-user Off-season, Short-term Tungsten Market Likely to Move Sideways] SMM July 23 News: This week, the tungsten market center rebounded slightly. At the beginning of the week, upstream raw material transactions turned active, and the market transaction center edged up slightly. Mine-side suppliers’ sentiment of holding back from selling intensified, and prices held firm. However, there was ample supply of low and medium-grade ore in the market, and the price spread between high-grade and low-grade ore transaction prices widened. At the start of the week, a tungsten enterprise in Jiangxi published its long-term contract prices, which were generally close to the spot order transaction prices of that day. The price spread between long-term contracts and spot orders narrowed. As the weekend approached, market sentiment diverged,