In May, the global aluminum market continued the core pattern of LME outperforming SHFE with divergent trends. The most-traded SHFE aluminum contract moved sideways in the doldrums, while LME aluminum maintained strength supported by low inventory and geopolitical premiums, with both seeing slight corrections at month-end. This month's market-driving logic revolved around Middle East ceasefire negotiations, rising expectations for US Fed interest rate hikes, divergence in inventory in and outside China, and accelerating export transmission, further highlighting the divergence between domestic and overseas aluminum price trends. The SHFE/LME aluminum price ratio declined further from the April average of 7.03 to the May average of 6.66, with the inverted price spread between domestic and overseas markets widening, as the trend of overseas aluminum prices outperforming SHFE aluminum continued to deepen. May Aluminum Price Review: Similar Pace but Intensifying Divergence in Strength China · The Most-Traded SHFE Aluminum Contract The contract opened low at around 24,800 yuan/mt at the beginning of the month. After the holiday, it pulled back rapidly due to high domestic inventory and weaker-than-expected downstream demand, hitting the monthly low of 24,075 yuan/mt on May 7. In mid-month, it rebounded to 24,620 yuan/mt driven by positive signals from the China-US meeting. In the latter part of the month, it pulled back to 24,375 yuan/mt as ceasefire expectations heated up combined with off-season drag. Ex-China · LME Aluminum The contract opened at $3,480/mt at the beginning of the month. In mid-month, it rallied to $3,680/mt (the monthly high and a four-year high) supported by supply disruptions and continued destocking. At month-end, it corrected to $3,628/mt, impacted by news that a US-Iran ceasefire agreement was 95% reached. In terms of price-driving factors, geopolitics remained the core common variable for aluminum prices in and outside China this month. Production cuts in the Middle East and shipping disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz continued to provide a shortage premium for LME aluminum. The price divergence stemmed from dual differences in macro policy and fundamentals—slow destocking from high inventory levels in China constrained SHFE aluminum's rebound space, while historically low inventory and a high premium structure outside China provided strong support for LME aluminum prices. Core Inventory Indicators: Extreme Divergence Between Domestic and Overseas Inventory with Contrasting Destocking Pace China · Gradual Decline from High Levels, Pressure Persists Social inventory began to pull back from the high of 1.456 million mt at the beginning of May, reaching approximately 1.401 million mt by month-end, with only about 55,000 mt destocked over the entire month. The destocking pace was slow, with inventory remaining at a near six-year high for the same period. SHFE warrants recorded 485,500 mt on May 29, still showing inventory buildup on a weekly basis, confirming ample spot supply in China. Ex-China · 20-Year Low, Structural Deficit Becomes Evident LME total inventory declined from approximately 363,000 mt at the beginning of the month to 338,000 mt at month-end, a decrease of approximately 25,000 mt over the month, with inventory levels at historically extreme lows. LME aluminum Cash-3M premiums closed at $92.53/mt at month-end, widening significantly from approximately $29/mt at the beginning of the month. Japan's Q3 spot premiums rose, premiums in Europe and the US continued to climb, and the rigid supply gap outside China provided sustained and strong support for LME aluminum. Macro and Fundamentals Intertwined: Geopolitical Dynamics and Rate Hike Expectations Dominating Sentiment Geopolitical Variables: Repeated Ceasefire Negotiations At the beginning of the month, the US military launched airstrikes on southern Iran, with military frictions between the two sides recurring. Shipping through the Strait of Hormuz remained disrupted, and geopolitical risk premiums climbed. At month-end, a US-Iran framework agreement was reportedly 95% complete, and a 60-day temporary ceasefire draft emerged. Expectations for the resumption of strait navigation warmed, and geopolitical premiums converged significantly. On the morning of May 28, both SHFE aluminum and LME aluminum plunged. US Fed Expectations: Hawkish Pressure US April CPI came in at 3.4% YoY, with core PCE reaching 2.8%. Inflation stickiness, compounded by Middle East conflicts pushing oil prices above $90/barrel, led hawkish US Fed officials to release signals of "raising rates at any time." Market expectations for a 25bp rate hike within the year surged abruptly, and a stronger US dollar continued to weigh on the demand outlook for non-ferrous metals. IV. Current Core Market Trades and Arbitrage Strategies (Including Divergence in Capital Behavior) Based on the current SHFE and LME fundamentals, inventory pace, and LME curve structure, the aluminum market overall exhibits a cautious unidirectional and arbitrage-dominated trading pattern. In particular, SHFE-LME cross-market reverse arbitrage (selling SHFE and buying LME) has become the core market play. Capital behavior among market participants has shown clear divergence, mainly falling into three categories: 1. Early-positioning capital (light long positions in reverse arbitrage) Some trading capital has positioned reverse arbitrage ahead of time based on the logic that China's inventory inflection point has already appeared. The core expectation of such capital is that as China's inventory gradually enters a destocking channel, accelerated destocking is highly likely to follow, rapidly easing China's high inventory pressure. The weak SHFE aluminum pattern is expected to be corrected, and the depressed SHFE-LME ratio has clear room for recovery, warranting early light positioning to capture the ratio rebound. 2. Wait-and-see cautious capital (staying on the sidelines for now) The majority of market capital has maintained a wait-and-see stance, with two core concerns: First, China is currently only experiencing slow destocking, and its sustainability is questionable during the off-season, as inventory pressure has not been substantially cleared and SHFE aluminum lacks sufficient rebound momentum. Second, LME is currently in a deep backwardation structure, making roll and extension costs for LME aluminum bulls extremely high, with significant cost erosion and high open interest pressure for holding long-term reverse arbitrage positions. Combined with the entrenched short-term pattern of LME outperforming SHFE, the price spread still risks further widening. Therefore, this segment of capital has chosen to wait for confirmed signals of accelerated destocking in China before entering the market. 3. Previously trapped capital (open interest under pressure, caught in a dilemma) Some positions that were established earlier to set up SHFE-LME reverse arbitrage are currently slightly underwater. Recently, LME has been continuously driven higher by geopolitical risks while SHFE has been range-bound and weak, with the divergence between LME outperforms SHFE intensifying, causing the ratio to remain persistently low and unrealized losses to emerge. Meanwhile, LME contango fees have risen sharply, long positions carrying costs continue to increase, and the pressure of holding trapped positions has further intensified. In the short term, these positions are caught in a dilemma, highly dependent on the subsequent pace of China's inventory destocking to restore the spread. Overall, the sole core inflection variable for SHFE-LME reverse arbitrage is currently the pace of domestic inventory destocking. Once weekly inventory drawdowns continue to widen and accelerated destocking is confirmed, it will directly drive a reversal in three types of capital behavior: sidelined capital entering the market en masse, trapped positions getting unwound, and early-entry positions realizing profits, triggering a rapid recovery in the ratio. Looking ahead to June, the aluminum market's core focus centers on three dimensions: first, whether the US-Iran ceasefire agreement can be formally signed and the pace of resuming navigation through the Strait of Hormuz, which will directly determine the extent of geopolitical premium convergence — if the agreement materializes and Middle Eastern aluminum supply gradually recovers, the prior support logic for LME aluminum faces correction risk; second, whether domestic inventory destocking can accelerate — continued export growth and import suppression will keep driving destocking, and the magnitude of destocking will determine SHFE aluminum's upside elasticity. The US Fed's June FOMC meeting is highly likely to keep rates unchanged, but a hawkish tone and sticky inflation will continue to suppress interest rate cut expectations, with a stronger US dollar maintaining sustained pressure on non-ferrous metals. Overall, the aluminum market in June is expected to continue the pattern where LME outperforms SHFE, though the degree of divergence is likely to narrow. LME aluminum is expected to hover at highs amid the tug-of-war between geopolitical premium convergence and rigid ex-China supply deficits, with downside room constrained by low inventory and high premiums. [ Data source disclaimer: Data other than publicly available information is derived from public information, market communication, and SMM's internal database models, processed by SMM for reference only and does not constitute decision-making advice. ] Data source: SMM

At the beginning of this week, the market continued to trade around developments in the US-Iran agreement and the Strait of Hormuz passage issue. Early in the week, the US-Iran agreement had not yet been finalized, with Trump stating that the deal was largely done but there was no rush to sign it. Market expectations for peace talks warmed, and the copper price center edged higher. Subsequently, Iran denied imposing transit fees on the Strait of Hormuz, but divergences remained between the US and Iran on issues such as highly enriched uranium disposal, asset unfreezing, and strait passage, with Middle Eastern geopolitical developments repeatedly disrupting market sentiment. Mid-week, the US Fed signaled it would maintain stable interest rates, with the subsequent policy path still depending on inflation and employment data. Toward the end of the week, the US April core PCE rose to 3.3% YoY, and US Fed officials maintained an open stance on rate hikes. However, the overall PCE was in line with market expectations, and combined with renewed warming of expectations for a US-Iran agreement, copper prices staged a phased rebound. Overall, the macro theme this week remained the intertwining of US-Iran peace talk expectations and recurring geopolitical conflicts, with copper prices staying high and moving sideways. Fundamentals side, the tight supply pattern in the copper market eased marginally this week. Supply side, imported copper arrivals remained relatively low, but domestic supply arrivals edged up slightly, and the spot tightness improved compared to the previous period, though high-quality copper circulation remained relatively tight. Demand side, elevated copper prices continued to suppress downstream purchase willingness, and downstream buyers mostly made just-in-time procurement for most of the week, with market trading activity remaining sluggish. However, after a phased pullback in copper prices, downstream stocking willingness improved, and spot transactions recovered marginally. Inventory side, as of Thursday, May 28, inventory increased by 1,000 mt WoW from the previous Thursday to 245,200 mt, with total inventory still significantly higher than the same period last year. Overall, the current fundamentals showed a pattern of marginally easing supply, weak demand recovery, and slight inventory accumulation, providing limited upside momentum for copper prices. Looking ahead to next week, macro logic is expected to continue revolving around the US-Iran agreement implementation, Strait of Hormuz passage, and US Fed policy expectations. If US-Iran peace talks continue to advance, easing geopolitical risks will continue to support market risk appetite; however, if the two sides remain in a stalemate on nuclear issues, asset unfreezing, and strait passage, oil prices and inflation expectations may continue to intermittently disrupt copper prices. Fundamentals side, the rebound in domestic arrivals and slight inventory accumulation are expected to exert some downward pressure on prices, but tight import arrivals and limited high-quality copper circulation still provide support to the downside. Copper prices are expected to continue moving sideways at elevated levels in the near term. LME copper is expected to fluctuate within $13,450-13,850/mt, and SHFE copper within 103,500-106,500 yuan/mt. Spot side, against the backdrop of high copper prices suppressing procurement while low-priced supply remains limited, premiums are expected to move sideways, with actual transactions still depending on downstream restocking willingness after futures pull back.

SMM News, May 29: Metals market: As of the midday close, domestic base metals rose nearly across the board. SHFE copper was up 0.86%, SHFE aluminum up 0.19%, SHFE lead down 0.45%, SHFE zinc up 1.05%, SHFE tin up 1.31%, and SHFE nickel edged down. In addition, the most-traded casting aluminum futures edged up, the most-traded alumina contract was up 1.08%, the most-traded lithium carbonate contract up 0.9%, the most-traded silicon metal contract up 0.12%, and the most-traded polysilicon futures contract up 0.45%. Ferrous metals mostly rose. Iron ore was up 0.77%, rebar up 0.38%, hot-rolled coil up 0.47%, and stainless steel down 0.57%. Coking coal and coke: coking coal edged up, and the most-traded coke contract was up 0.42%. Overseas base metals, as of 11:41, LME metals fell nearly across the board. LME copper was down 0.41%, LME aluminum down 0.68%, LME lead down 0.12%, LME zinc up 0.18%, LME tin down 1.61%, and LME nickel down 0.52%. Precious metals, as of 11:41, COMEX gold was down 0.1% and COMEX silver down 0.26%. Domestic precious metals: the most-traded SHFE gold contract was up 1.59% and the most-traded SHFE silver contract up 1.86%. In addition, as of the midday close, the most-traded platinum futures contract was up 0.89% and the most-traded palladium futures contract down 1.45%. As of the midday close, the most-traded Europe containerized freight contract was up 0.62%, closing at 3,016 points. As of 11:41 on May 29, midday futures quotes for selected contracts: Spot cargo and fundamentals Aluminum: On May 29, SMM A00 aluminum (Foshan) was quoted at 24,060, up 50, at a discount of 225 to the current-month contract, narrowing by 5. Futures edged up today, and spot cargo in South China was generally stable with slight fall. Absolute prices remained at relatively low levels and inventory saw significant drawdowns. In the morning, most holders continued to hold prices firm for shipments... Macro front China: [ CCPIT: Global Trade Friction Index Remained at High Level in March ] This morning (May 29), the China Council for the Promotion of International Trade (CCPIT) held a press conference to release the latest Global Trade Friction Index. Data showed that in March this year, the global trade friction index remained at a high level. Composite index, the global trade friction index stood at 104 in March 2026, remaining at a high level. The value of trade involved in global trade friction measures fell 29.1% YoY but rose 2.8% MoM. Country-specific indices, among the 20 countries (regions) monitored, the top 3 were the US, India, and the EU. The US accounted for the largest amount involved in global trade friction measures, ranking first in 11 out of the past 12 months. Wang Yifei, spokesperson of the China Council for the Promotion of International Trade (CCPIT), stated that in terms of industry indices, among the 13 major industries within the monitoring scope, trade friction measures were concentrated in the electronics, chemicals, transportation equipment, and machinery equipment industries, with the electronics industry ranking first in the trade friction index. (CCTV News) [PBOC Reverse Repo Operations Recorded a Net Withdrawal of 30 Billion Yuan for the Day and a Net Injection of 104.4 Billion Yuan for the Week] The PBOC conducted 123 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repo operations today. As 153 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repos matured today, a net withdrawal of 30 billion yuan was achieved for the day. This week, the PBOC conducted 908.9 billion yuan of reverse repo operations. As a total of 500 billion yuan of 1-year MLF and 304.5 billion yuan of reverse repos matured this week, a net injection of 104.4 billion yuan was achieved for the week. (Jin10 Data APP)(Jin10 Data APP) US Dollar: As of 11:41, the US dollar index rose 0.1% to 99.1. Fed's Musalem said on Thursday that, like several other Fed policymakers, he believed the "easing bias" language should have been removed from the post-meeting statement last month, thereby creating the possibility of an interest rate hike. "I supported the rate decision, but I believe the easing bias no longer aligns with the economic outlook and the balance of risks," Musalem said. Blerina Uruci, chief US economist at T. Rowe Price, said the market may still be underestimating the likelihood of further policy tightening by the US Fed. In her report, Uruci noted that since early May, the Iran conflict has lasted longer than expected, oil prices have risen, and US economic growth has remained resilient. While the US Fed can look through a temporary energy shock, sustained oil and import price pressures could affect inflation expectations, wage dynamics, and enterprise pricing behavior. Uruci shifted her base case to the federal funds rate remaining unchanged over the next 12 months. She assigned a 45% probability to rates staying unchanged, a 35% probability of a rate hike by year-end or early 2027, and a 20% probability of an interest rate cut. According to the CME "FedWatch": the probability of the US Fed keeping rates unchanged through June was 99.4%, with a 0.6% probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point rate hike. The probability of the US Fed keeping rates unchanged through July was 93%, with a 6.9% probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point rate hike. (Jin10 Data APP) A series of economic data confirmed market concerns about US inflation, while economic activity sent mixed signals. US durable goods orders rose 7.9% in April, easily surpassing the Wall Street Journal's market consensus expectations of 3.5%; however, this figure was largely driven by a surge in non-defense aircraft equipment orders. The second estimate of Q1 GDP growth was unexpectedly revised down from 2% to 1.6%. Weekly initial jobless claims rose more than expected, increasing from an upwardly revised 210,000 to 215,000, suggesting an acceleration in the pace of enterprise layoffs. PCE inflation accelerated as expected, rising from 3.5% to 3.8%. (Jin10 Data APP) Data: Today will see the release of France's preliminary May CPI m/m, France's final Q1 GDP y/y, Germany's seasonally adjusted May unemployment change, Germany's seasonally adjusted May unemployment rate, Germany's preliminary May CPI m/m, Canada's March GDP m/m, and the US May Chicago PMI, among other data. In addition, attention should be paid to: 2027 FOMC voter and Richmond Fed President Barkin participating in a fireside chat at a conference hosted by Johns Hopkins University Carey Business School; 2026 FOMC voter and Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari participating in an exchange event at Korea University; Bank of England Governor Bailey delivering a speech; 2028 FOMC voter and Kansas City Fed President Schmid delivering a speech; US Fed Governor Bowman delivering a speech; and 2026 FOMC voter and Philadelphia Fed President Paulsen delivering a speech on the economic outlook. Crude oil: As of 11:41, both benchmarks declined, with WTI down 1.26% and Brent down 0.85%. The market expected a possible US-Iran ceasefire extension agreement, putting oil prices under pressure. Meanwhile, the back-and-forth nature of bilateral agreement negotiations also led to heightened volatility in oil prices. The US and Iran are nearing a historic 60-day ceasefire and maritime corridor unblocking agreement, but contradictory statements from senior officials on both sides indicate that core disagreements over Iran's nuclear plan and control of the Strait of Hormuz persist, leaving significant uncertainty over whether a final deal can be reached. According to Xinhua News Agency, US officials stated that US-Iran negotiators had largely reached agreement on the terms of a memorandum of understanding on the 26th, pending approval from senior leadership on both sides. The Iranian side stated it had obtained the necessary approval and was ready to sign. US negotiators briefed Trump on the details of the memorandum of understanding. "The President told the mediators that he would like to take a few days to consider the matter." Meanwhile, according to CCTV News, the Iranian side stated that as of now, Iran has not agreed to any memorandum of understanding, nor has it confirmed to Pakistani mediators that it has approved the memorandum. In addition, Iran explicitly stated that it had not made any commitments on the nuclear issue during negotiations with the US. (Wallstreetcn) US Treasury Secretary Bessent: Oil prices will be lower than pre-conflict levels. Nearly 2,000 ships are waiting for port departures in the Gulf, and supply on the other end of the oil market will be very ample. (Jin10 Data APP) South Korean government officials said on the 28th that the South Korean government decided to ease mandatory oil reserve requirements for private enterprises starting from the 29th to release private oil reserves to the market. The country has not yet decided when to release national oil reserves, keeping them as a "last card" to deal with potential oil crises. Yang Ki-wook, an official from South Korea's Ministry of Trade, Industry and Energy, announced on the same day that starting from the 29th, the government will reduce the mandatory oil reserve requirement for private oil companies from 40 days to 20 days, releasing oil reserves equivalent to 20 days of consumption. He stated that this measure was to fulfill commitments made to the International Energy Agency. (Jin10 Data APP) Spot market overview: ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ►

SMM News, May 29: Metals market: Overnight, domestic base metals mostly rose. SHFE copper was up 1.17%. SHFE aluminum was up 0.39%, SHFE lead was down 0.24%. SHFE zinc was up 0.89%. SHFE tin was up 2.66%. SHFE nickel was up 0.61%. In addition, the most-traded alumina futures contract was up 0.63%, and the most-traded casting aluminum futures contract was up 0.39%. Overnight, ferrous metals mostly fell. Iron ore and hot-rolled coil edged down, stainless steel edged up 0.03%, and rebar was down 0.1%. Coking coal and coke: the most-traded coking coal futures contract was down 0.23%, and the most-traded coke futures contract was up 0.08%. Overnight, overseas market metals saw LME base metals rise across the board. LME copper was up 1.71%. LME aluminum was up 1.47%, LME lead was up 0.9%. LME zinc was up 1.44%. LME tin was up 2.47%. LME nickel was up 1.06%. Overnight precious metals : A weaker US dollar drove gold to reverse from losses to gains. Overnight COMEX gold ultimately rose 1.02%, and COMEX silver was up 1.36%. Overnight the most-traded SHFE gold contract was up 1.91%, and the most-traded SHFE silver contract was up 2.71%. As of 7:24 AM on May 29, overnight closing prices: Macro front China: [The State Council issued the Urban Renewal 15th Five-Year Plan: increasing improvement-oriented housing supply based on city-specific policies and regulating the development of the housing rental market] The State Council issued the Urban Renewal 15th Five-Year Plan. The plan proposed conducting a comprehensive survey of existing urban asset resources, promoting classified disposal of supplied but undeveloped land and projects under construction, and revitalizing idle and inefficient old factory buildings, commercial office spaces, commodity housing, and public housing. It called for accelerating the construction of a new model for real estate development, improving fundamental systems for commodity housing development, financing, and sales. The plan aims to optimize the supply of affordable housing, strengthen housing security for low-income urban families with housing difficulties, better meet the basic housing needs of working-class groups with housing difficulties and modest incomes, and gradually address the transitional housing difficulties of new urban residents and young people. It will increase improvement-oriented housing supply based on city-specific policies and regulate the development of the housing rental market. The plan promotes the transformation and development of real estate developers and their participation in urban renewal. It will deepen the reform of the housing provident fund system, expand its scope of use, strive to meet the diversified housing needs of contributors at different stages, and support flexible employment workers in participating in the housing provident fund system. It will also strengthen and regulate the management of existing urban infrastructure assets. [The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) organized a video conference to arrange and deploy national energy supply assurance work for the summer peak] Recently, the NDRC organized the 2026 national video conference on energy supply assurance for the summer peak, thoroughly studying and implementing the spirit of the 20th National Congress of the CPC and all plenary sessions of the 20th Central Committee, earnestly implementing the decisions and deployments of the CPC Central Committee and the State Council, and arranging energy supply assurance work for the summer peak. The meeting required that all regions and relevant enterprises fully recognize the importance, complexity, and long-term nature of summer peak energy supply assurance tasks, closely monitor key regions and critical periods, conduct rolling assessments, strengthen dispatching, fully implement all supply assurance measures, prepare and utilize supply assurance contingency plans, and ensure safe and stable energy operations during the summer peak. It called for ensuring stable generation and supply, securing the production and supply of primary energy sources such as coal and natural gas, strengthening coal transportation for power generation, and meeting peak power generation demand. It urged continued promotion of efficient fulfillment of medium and long-term contracts for electricity, thermal coal, and natural gas. It emphasized strengthening power equipment operation and maintenance management to achieve stable and reliable output, optimizing power dispatching, and fully leveraging the peak-shaving capacity of various power supply sources. (NDRC) [Two departments jointly lay out systematic plans for AI metrology capacity building] The State Administration for Market Regulation and the NDRC jointly issued the Guidelines for AI Metrology System and Capacity Building (2026 Edition), systematically laying out AI metrology capacity building. The Guidelines are organized around six major sections—basic support, general technology, core technology, metrology technical specifications, metrology services for industry, and intelligent empowerment of metrology—bridging the "last mile" between laboratory innovation and industry application. Focusing on the challenge of "measurement inaccuracy" to make AI more trustworthy, the Guidelines deploy key technology research on AI system internal state monitoring and characterization to address pain points such as algorithmic "black boxes" and poor decision explainability, promoting the establishment of reliable, safe, and trustworthy metrology standards for AI, achieving "measurable, comparable, and traceable" AI technical performance. (CCTV News) [SHFE takes restrictive position-opening regulatory measures against certain clients] SHFE announced that on May 28, 2026, three groups of accounts with actual control relationships exceeded the intraday position-opening trading volume limits on relevant contracts, reaching the exchange's action threshold. The trading behavior of the above clients violated Article 16 of the Shanghai Futures Exchange Measures for the Administration of Abnormal Trading Behavior. The exchange decided to impose restrictive position-opening regulatory measures on the relevant clients in the corresponding products. (Jin10 Data APP) [Chinese automakers surpass the 100 million cumulative production and sales milestone for the first time] On the afternoon of May 28, SAIC delivered its 100 millionth vehicle, marking the birth of the first auto group in Chinese automotive history to surpass 100 million units in cumulative production and sales, in Shanghai. The emergence of China's first "100-million-unit automaker" is a vivid testament to over 70 years of Chinese automotive industry development from nothing to something, from weak to strong, and represents an important milestone for "Made in China." (Xinhua) US dollar: Overnight, the US dollar index fell 0.22% to 99.01. According to Wallstreetcn, April PCE inflation came in below expectations MoM, Q1 GDP annualized growth was revised down to 1.6%, new home sales declined sharply, and initial jobless claims also slightly exceeded expectations. Weak US data combined with ceasefire hopes jointly boosted interest rate cut expectations. According to data released Thursday by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), the US April PCE price index was 3.8% YoY, in line with expectations, the highest level since May 2023, with the Iran war driving energy prices higher as the main factor. The Fed's preferred inflation gauge—the core PCE price index (excluding food and energy)—rose 3.3% YoY in April, hitting a new high since November 2023. Meanwhile, another BEA report showed that US Q1 GDP annualized growth was revised down to 1.6%, below the initial estimate of 2.0%. The coexistence of weak consumption and elevated inflation made the market's judgment on the Fed's monetary policy direction increasingly complex. (Wallstreetcn) Other currencies: Meeting minutes released Thursday showed that the European Central Bank's decision to hold rates unchanged last month was a "difficult choice" for some policymakers; given signs of persistently high inflation, they found it hard to ignore the shock triggered by energy factors. The ECB noted in the minutes: "Several members indicated that this decision was a difficult choice; had a rate hike proposal been on the agenda for this meeting, they would not have opposed it." The ECB also stated: "Since the last meeting, the value of 'pausing rate hikes to preserve policy options' has diminished; at the same time, the approach of taking no monetary policy action and merely adopting a 'temporary disregard' attitude toward the current situation has become increasingly less appropriate." (Jin10 Data APP) Macro: Today will see the release of France's May CPI monthly preliminary reading, France's Q1 GDP annual final reading, Germany's May seasonally adjusted unemployment figures, Germany's May seasonally adjusted unemployment rate, Germany's May CPI monthly preliminary reading, Canada's March GDP monthly rate, and the US May Chicago PMI, among other data. In addition, attention should be paid to: 2027 FOMC voter and Richmond Fed President Barkin participating in a fireside chat at a conference hosted by Johns Hopkins University Carey Business School; 2026 FOMC voter and Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari participating in an exchange event at Korea University; Bank of England Governor Bailey delivering a speech; 2028 FOMC voter and Kansas City Fed President Schmid delivering a speech; Fed Governor Bowman delivering a speech; and 2026 FOMC voter and Philadelphia Fed President Paulsen delivering a speech on the economic outlook. Crude oil: Thursday saw US-Iran ceasefire rumors flip-flopping, with oil prices swinging wildly throughout the day before closing flat. Reports of a memorandum of understanding between the US and Iran sent WTI futures plunging from $91 to near $87—before instantly rebounding to near $90. Ultimately, overnight WTI was down 0.17% and Brent was up 0.16%. (Wallstreetcn) According to CCTV, on May 28 local time, US and Iranian negotiators reached an agreement framework on a 60-day memorandum of understanding, intended to extend the ceasefire and launch negotiations on Iran's nuclear issue, but still requiring final approval from US President Trump. US officials said the terms of the agreement were largely finalised before the 26th, but both sides still needed approval from their respective top leadership. The US side said Iran subsequently indicated it had obtained the necessary authorization and was ready to sign, but Iranian officials had not yet confirmed this. US officials said negotiators had briefed Trump on the final agreement, but he did not immediately approve it, stating he "needed a few days to consider." According to CCTV, on May 28 local time, Saeed Aghalou, a member of the Iranian negotiating delegation's media team, stated that as of now, Iran has not agreed to any memorandum of understanding, nor has it confirmed to Pakistani mediators that it has approved the memorandum. Furthermore, he explicitly stated that Iran made no commitments on nuclear issues during negotiations with the US. A source close to the negotiating team said the text of the potential memorandum of understanding has not been finalised or confirmed. Western media reports claiming that an agreement between Iran and the US has been finalised are not true. Iran has not informed Pakistani mediators that the text has been finalised. Once finalised, Iran will announce the matter to Pakistani mediators and the public. Until then, any claims by Western sources that the matter has been "finalised" are not credible. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Navy said on social media on the 28th that 23 ships passed through the Strait of Hormuz in the past 24 hours. (Xinhua) US Energy Information Administration (EIA) data showed: US crude oil imports from Iraq fell to zero last week, hitting a record low. For the week ending May 22, US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) inventory decreased by 9.063 million barrels to 365.1 million barrels, a decline of 2.42%. Commercial crude oil inventory excluding strategic reserves decreased by 3.327 million barrels to 442 million barrels, a decline of 0.75%. US commercial crude oil inventory excluding strategic reserves for the week ending May 22 was at its lowest since the week of February 27, 2026. US EIA Strategic Petroleum Reserve inventory for the week ending May 22 was at its lowest since the week of April 12, 2024. (Jin10 Data APP)

[SMM Silicone Weekly Review: DMC Seemingly Stable but Quietly Declining, Silicone Market Tug-of-War Intensifies] This week, China's silicone DMC market appeared stable on the surface but declined underneath, with the trading range shifting down to 14,300-14,800 yuan/mt, an average price of 14,550 yuan/mt, down approximately 350 yuan/mt WoW. In terms of regional quotations, mainstream quotations in Shandong and other regions all reached 14,800 yuan/mt.

[SMM Lithium Battery Anode Raw Material Market Weekly Review: Weakening Costs Dragged Petroleum Coke Lower, Needle Coke Prices Held Steady Amid Tug-of-War Between Sellers and Buyers] May 28: China's low-sulphur petroleum coke market weakened overall this week, with prices declining significantly, down over 6% WoW.

SMM May 28: Metals market: As of the midday close, domestic base metals fell across the board. SHFE copper dropped 1%, SHFE aluminum fell 1.08%, SHFE lead declined 0.99%, SHFE zinc lost 0.54%, SHFE tin slid 1.05%, and SHFE nickel fell 1.07%. In addition, the most-traded foundry aluminum futures fell 0.82%, while the most-traded alumina contract rose 0.14%. The most-traded lithium carbonate contract gained 0.27%. The most-traded silicon metal contract dropped 0.64%. The most-traded polysilicon futures fell 0.9%. Ferrous metals mostly rose. Iron ore edged up, rebar and hot-rolled coil each gained less than 0.5%, and stainless steel fell 0.5%. Coking coal and coke: the most-traded coking coal contract rose 2.09%, and the most-traded coke contract gained 2.44%. Overseas base metals, as of 11:39, LME metals fell nearly across the board. LME copper dropped 0.2%. LME aluminum and LME lead both fell 0.15%. LME zinc was flat at $3,507.5/mt. LME tin declined 0.55%. LME nickel lost 0.45%. Precious metals, as of 11:39, COMEX gold fell 1.47% and COMEX silver dropped 2.6%. Domestic precious metals: the most-traded SHFE gold contract fell 2.75%, and the most-traded SHFE silver contract dropped 4.97%. In addition, as of the midday close, the most-traded platinum futures fell 3.78%, and the most-traded palladium futures declined 3.75%. As of the midday close, the most-traded Europe containerized freight index contract rose 1.22% to 2,995.5 points. As of 11:39 on May 28, midday futures quotes for selected contracts: Spot Prices and Fundamentals Copper: Today in Guangdong, #1 copper cathode spot prices against the front-month contract: high-quality copper was quoted at a premium of 120 yuan/mt, down 10 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; standard-quality copper was quoted at a premium of 50 yuan/mt, down 10 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; SX-EW copper was quoted at a discount of 20 yuan/mt, down 10 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The average price of Guangdong #1 copper cathode was 103,695 yuan/mt, down 1,395 yuan/mt from the previous trading day, and the average price of SX-EW copper was 103,590 yuan/mt, down 1,395 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Spot market: Guangdong inventory increased again, mainly driven by rising arrivals and weakening consumption... Macro Front China: [CSRC Vice Chairman Liu Haoling: Foreign investors' willingness to allocate to China's quality assets continues to rise] On May 28, the 2026 Global Investor Conference hosted by the Shenzhen Stock Exchange was held in Shenzhen. CSRC Vice Chairman Liu Haoling stated in his address that China's capital market reforms integrating investment and financing had progressed steadily and continued to deliver results, overall market valuations were within a reasonable range, and foreign investors' willingness to allocate to China's quality assets continued to rise. In his address, Liu Haolin stated that China is a major contributor to and stabilizing anchor for global economic growth, and a fertile ground for foreign enterprises to invest and do business. Since the beginning of this year, foreign capital has been flowing steadily into China's stock market through various channels. As of now, various overseas investors hold over 4 trillion yuan in A-share tradable market capitalization, making them important participants in China's capital market. (Wallstreetcn) PBOC conducted 101.3 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repo operations in the open market, with the operation rate at 1.40%, unchanged from the previous day. Today, 100 billion yuan of reverse repos matured. US dollar: As of 11:39, the US dollar index rose 0.25% to 99.48. Persistently high energy prices intensified market concerns about a resurgence in inflation. Chicago Fed President Goolsbee on Thursday further reinforced his warning: rising market expectations for AI's potential to boost productivity could push up inflation and force the US Fed and other central banks to raise interest rates. Goolsbee said: "The more hype there is about future productivity, the higher rates may need to go to prevent the economy from overheating. More importantly, facing supply shocks in the short term—whether from oil prices, supply chain disruptions, or other factors—makes the problem even worse." The above remarks further expanded on the views Goolsbee first publicly raised earlier this month. He questioned the notion that AI could suppress inflation and thereby create room for central banks to cut interest rates—a view championed by many officials in the Trump administration as well as new US Fed Chair Warsh. In the 1990s, as computers became more widely adopted, US productivity rose unexpectedly, driving rapid economic growth without triggering inflation. However, Goolsbee argued that if productivity gains are anticipated by the market, the situation would be different. Markets could trigger a spending boom in advance, pushing up prices before actual productivity gains materialize. US Fed Vice Chair Jefferson said he expected inflation to cool later this year as the effects of tariffs and rising energy costs fade, but he warned that inflation risks remain tilted to the upside. In remarks prepared for delivery at a Bank of Japan-hosted conference in Tokyo on Thursday morning, Jefferson said he is watching for signs that rising energy costs from the Iran war are weighing on consumer spending. He also warned that he continued to see signs of weakness in the labour market. Jefferson reiterated his view that the central bank's current policy stance was well positioned to respond to any developments. Jefferson stated, "I am not prejudging the next meeting and look forward to engaging with my colleagues on the best policy to achieve our dual mandate goals." (Jin10 Data) Other currencies: The Bank of Korea's six-month dot plot showed that among 21 dots, 7 were at 2.75%, 10 at 3%, 2 at 3.25%, and 2 at 2.5%. (From Wallstreetcn APP) Data: Data to be released today include the eurozone May industrial confidence index, eurozone May economic sentiment index, Canada Q1 current account, US initial jobless claims for the week ending May 23, US April core PCE price index YoY, US April personal spending MoM, US Q1 real GDP annualized QoQ revised, US April core PCE price index MoM, and US April durable goods orders MoM. In addition, attention should be paid to: the ECB publishing the minutes of its April monetary policy meeting; permanent FOMC voter and New York Fed President Williams delivering a keynote speech at a conference co-organized by the Central Bank of Iceland; 2028 FOMC voter and St. Louis Fed President Musalem delivering a speech. Crude oil: As of 11:39, both benchmarks rose, with WTI up 3.1% and Brent up 3.07%. US-Iran tensions escalated again, driving crude oil higher. US President Trump expressed dissatisfaction with negotiations with Iran, and the White House subsequently denied Iranian media reports of progress in peace talks, quickly dampening earlier market optimism about a ceasefire agreement. The US-Iran conflict entered its fourth month, with ceasefire prospects remaining uncertain. According to Xinhua News Agency, US President Trump said at a cabinet meeting at the White House on the 27th that the US and Iran had not yet reached a deal and the US was "dissatisfied" with this, fully rejecting the potential mechanism for joint US-Iran-Oman management of the Strait of Hormuz. (Wallstreetcn) The American Petroleum Institute (API) released data showing that US crude oil and gasoline inventories both declined last week. US API crude oil inventory for the week ending May 22 was -2.819 million barrels, versus expectations of -4.367 million barrels and a prior value of -9.11 million barrels. US API gasoline inventory for the week ending May 22 was -3.199 million barrels, versus expectations of -2.896 million barrels and a prior value of -5.795 million barrels. (Jin10 Data APP) Spot market overview: ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ►

SMM May 28 News: Metals market: Overnight, domestic market base metals fell across the board. SHFE copper fell 0.9%. SHFE aluminum fell 1.24%, SHFE lead fell 0.81%. SHFE zinc fell 0.48%. SHFE tin fell 0.64%. SHFE nickel fell 0.48%. In addition, the most-traded alumina futures contract rose 0.17%, and the most-traded foundry aluminum futures contract fell 1.02%. Overnight, ferrous metals mostly rose. Iron ore fell 0.13%, stainless steel rose 0.23%, rebar rose 0.32%, and hot-rolled coil rose 0.36%. Coking coal and coke: the most-traded coking coal futures contract rose 2.13%, and the most-traded coke futures contract rose 1.88%. Overnight, overseas market metals saw broad declines in LME base metals. LME copper fell 0.69%. LME aluminum fell 1.28%, LME lead fell 0.72%. LME zinc fell 0.58%. LME tin rose 0.08%. LME nickel fell 0.63%. Overnight precious metals : COMEX gold fell 1.03%, COMEX silver fell 2.25%. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE gold contract fell 1.26%, and the most-traded SHFE silver contract fell 2.28%. As of 7:11 am on May 28, overnight closing prices: Macro front China: [Li Qiang: Accelerate the construction of commodity resource allocation hubs to provide reliable support for coordinating development and security] Li Qiang, member of the Standing Committee of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee and Premier of the State Council, conducted a survey in Zhoushan and Ningbo, Zhejiang Province from May 25 to 27. He emphasized the need to thoroughly implement General Secretary's important remarks and instructions on building a major-country reserve system, adhere to government leadership, social co-construction, and diversified complementarity, manage commodity and important material reserve adjustments, strengthen strategic security, macroeconomic regulation, and emergency response functions, continuously enhance industry chain and supply chain resilience, and accelerate the construction of commodity resource allocation hubs to provide reliable support for coordinating development and security. (Xinhua News Agency) [Ministry of Industry and Information Technology: Strengthen top-level design of automotive standards system] According to the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the 2026 automotive standardization system has been completed. This system covers many aspects, strengthens the top-level design of the standards system, and empowers high-quality development of the automotive industry. In promoting innovative development in emerging fields, it focuses on accelerating standard development and iteration in areas such as driving automation, connected functions and applications, information security and data security, resource management and information services, automotive software, automotive data, and "vehicle-road-cloud integration." It efficiently carries out the development and revision of standards for key system components such as automotive electronics and automotive chips. In addition, targeting future industry directions such as automotive artificial intelligence and new-form vehicles, it conducts forward-looking standard breakthrough actions and advances standard planning and layout. (CCTV News) US dollar: Overnight, the US dollar index rose 0.08% to 99.23. US Fed Vice Chair Jefferson said he expected inflation to cool later this year as the effects of tariffs and rising energy costs fade, but warned that inflation risks remain tilted to the upside. In prepared remarks for a speech at a Bank of Japan-hosted conference in Tokyo on Thursday morning, Jefferson said he was watching for signs that rising energy costs from the Iran war were dragging on consumer spending. He also warned that he continued to see signs of labour market weakness. Jefferson reiterated his view that the central bank's current policy stance is well positioned to respond to any developments. Jefferson said, "I am not prejudging the next meeting and look forward to engaging with my colleagues on the best policy to achieve our dual mandate goals." According to CME "FedWatch": the probability of the US Fed maintaining rates unchanged through June is 99.9%, with a 0.1% probability of a cumulative 25 basis point interest rate cut. The probability of the US Fed maintaining rates unchanged through July is 91.4%, with an 8.5% probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate hike. US Fed Governor Lisa Cook said in a speech at a Stanford University event on Wednesday local time that inflation is moving in the wrong direction, and she is prepared to raise interest rates if this continues. While Cook said she currently favors keeping borrowing costs unchanged and expects price growth to cool again in the coming months, her remarks align her with many US Fed officials' view that accelerating inflation is now a bigger policy concern than the labour market. Cook said: "I want to be clear about my risk assessment: risks remain tilted toward higher inflation." Cook said that inflation above the US Fed's 2% target for five years poses the risk of price pressures becoming embedded in price and wage-setting behavior. "Therefore, if the expected inflation pullback does not materialize in a timely manner, I am prepared to raise interest rates," she said. (Jin10 Data APP) Macro: Data to be released today include the eurozone May industrial confidence index, eurozone May economic sentiment index, Canada Q1 current account, US initial jobless claims for the week ending May 23, US April core PCE price index YoY, US April personal spending MoM, US Q1 real GDP annualized QoQ revised, US April core PCE price index MoM, and US April durable goods orders MoM. In addition, attention should be paid to: the ECB publishing the minutes of its April monetary policy meeting; FOMC permanent voting member and New York Fed President Williams delivering a keynote speech at a conference co-organized by the Central Bank of Iceland; 2028 FOMC voting member and St. Louis Fed President Musalem delivering a speech. Crude oil: Overnight, both oil futures fell, with WTI down 4.77% and Brent down 3.92%. The prospects for US-Iran talks remain uncertain. After the decline on the 27th, WTI crude oil edged up at the open on May 28, as the US and Iran still have disagreements on how to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Trump said he was "not satisfied" with the negotiations. The White House denied Iranian reports of a draft agreement that said Iran and Oman would oversee strait shipping. Despite the challenges, crude oil prices are still on track for a second consecutive weekly decline due to optimism that the warring parties can at least reach an interim agreement. The sticking points in these protracted negotiations include Iran's desire to retain control over the Strait of Hormuz and the fate of the country's nuclear program. (Jin10 Data APP) According to CCTV News, earlier on Wednesday, Iranian media disclosed a "preliminary informal document" regarding the framework of a memorandum of understanding between Iran and the US, covering issues such as the Strait of Hormuz, regional military deployments, and future agreement arrangements. Data released by the American Petroleum Institute (API) showed that US crude oil and gasoline inventories both declined last week. US API crude oil inventory for the week ending May 22 was -2.819 million barrels, versus expectations of -4.367 million barrels and a prior value of -9.11 million barrels. US API gasoline inventory for the week ending May 22 was -3.199 million barrels, versus expectations of -2.896 million barrels and a prior value of -5.795 million barrels. (Jin10 Data APP)

The minutes of Xingye Silver&Tin's investor briefing announced on May 27 show: 1. Question: Mr. Sun! After the commissioning of Yinman Phase II, the plan is to mainly process lead-zinc-silver series ore, and the ore type and grade are expected to show relatively small changes compared to the Phase I lead-zinc system. Simply put, Zone 1 and Zone 4 are important resource replacement areas for Yinman Mining in the future, but currently they still belong to "potential zones" and cannot be directly classified into the "core rich ore" category like Orebody No. 17. Xingye Silver&Tin's response: Thank you for your attention! As of now, Orebody No. 17 is the main orebody that has been proven at Yinman. 2. Question: Hello, could you share the company's outlook on its own resources going forward and its assessment of the future market? Xingye Silver&Tin's response: Thank you for your attention! As an important participant in China's mineral resources sector and one of the world's leading silver-tin polymetallic mining enterprises, the company is firmly optimistic about its strategic layout, resource reserves, and industry prospects. 3. Question: Mr. Sun, over the past two years, the company has continuously pursued project acquisitions with an expanding financing scale. Can talent and technology be guaranteed? Can timely operations and safety be ensured? Xingye Silver&Tin's response: Thank you for your attention! In recent years, the company has prudently conducted project acquisitions and financing activities centered on its core business, with the overall expansion pace being controllable. Currently, the company has a complete talent pipeline and mature core technologies, and has established a standardized operational management and safety and environmental protection-related controls system, which can fully ensure the stable operation of all acquired projects and effectively prevent various risks. 4. Question: Mr. Sun, was your increase in shareholding in 2026 because you are optimistic about the company's several major projects this year? Xingye Silver&Tin's response: Thank you for your attention! Like other small and medium investors of the company, I am firmly optimistic about the company's potential investment value and plan to hold for the long term. 5. Question: @Director, Vice President and Board Secretary Sun Kai. Dear Secretary Sun, the company's Hong Kong IPO prospectus disclosed a 2026 tin production guidance of 5,500 mt, but Q1 production was only 777 mt, annualized at only 3,100 mt, far below the full-year guidance. May I ask: 1) Was the low Q1 production due to the technological transformation ramp-up of Yinman's copper-tin system, equipment commissioning, or low recovery rates? 2) What is the capacity release pace in subsequent quarters, and can the full-year guidance of 5,500 mt be achieved? 3) What are the timetable for reaching full production after technological transformation and the recovery rate improvement targets? Xingye Silver&Tin's response: Thank you for your attention! Based on the principles of comprehensive resource recovery and safe and efficient mining, the company simultaneously mines Orebody No. 17 and other copper-tin orebodies. For the company's production data, please refer to the periodic reports published on the company's designated information disclosure media. 6. Question: After the acquisition of Weiling Co., the company's related resources will inevitably be tilted toward that company. Please terminate the acquisition of Weiling Co. Xingye Silver&Tin's response: Thank you for your attention! Regarding the progress of the Weiling Co. project, please follow the relevant announcements disclosed by the company on designated media. 7. Question: What are the respective positioning of Xingye Silver&Tin A-shares, Xingye Silver&Tin H-shares, and Weiling Co.? Xingye Silver&Tin's response: Thank you for your attention! Regarding the progress of the Weiling Co. project, please follow the relevant announcements disclosed by the company on designated media. 8. Question: Dear Board Secretary, is the Q1 performance sustainable? What are the current capacity and inventory of silver and tin respectively? Xingye Silver&Tin's response: Thank you for your attention! In Q1 2026, the company's mined silver production was 78.95 mt and mined tin production was 777.33 mt. As of the end of Q1 2026, silver inventory was 15.04 mt and tin inventory was 83.67 mt. 9. Question: Is there a preliminary timetable for the Hong Kong listing? Can it be completed before the end of December this year? Among the company's plans, no projects have been implemented in Xinjiang yet. What kind of resources is the company planning for in the Xinjiang segment? Xingye Silver&Tin's response: Thank you for your attention! The company will release progress announcements on designated media in a timely manner based on project developments. Please stay tuned! 10. Question: Dear Board Secretary, how does the company view the sustained growth in silver and tin demand driven by AI and new energy? Tin production was 8,900 mt in 2024, but the 2026 guidance was lowered to 5,500 mt. What is the core reason? What is the pace of subsequent capacity release for the Yinman technological transformation and the Morocco project? Xingye Silver&Tin's response: Thank you for your attention! The materials related to the Hong Kong listing adopt the JORC Code, a technical standard developed by Australia. For example, the JORC Code defines "ore reserves" as the economically mineable part of measured and/or indicated mineral resources. The above standard differs to some extent from China's standards, resulting in certain deviations between the relevant data under planning and actual production and operations. Specific production data shall be subject to the data disclosed in the company's periodic reports. 11. Question: Has the land certificate and construction permit for Yinman Phase II been obtained? Please do not respond with "please follow the relevant announcements disclosed by the company on designated media." Xingye Silver&Tin's response: Thank you for your attention! Yinman Phase II is expected to commence construction on July 1. After construction begins, the company will promptly disclose relevant progress announcements. Please stay tuned! 12. Question: Last year, the company was bullish on silver prices continuing to rise and chose to stockpile. Now silver prices are under pressure and the company did not hedge. Is the company still bullish on silver?The stock price has been continuously under pressure. Will the company proactively manage this? Xingye Silver&Tin replied: Thank you for your attention! As of now, the company has not conducted any futures hedging business. The company's hedging is carried out prudently at appropriate times based on actual production and operations as well as market conditions, with strict control over transaction risks. 13. Question: What is the current tin recovery rate at Yinman? The report for the Hong Kong listing shows a significant decline in grade. Is this in line with the company's current situation? If based on that report, it seems the company does not need to proceed with the Phase II expansion of Yinman, which appears somewhat contradictory. When will all of the company's capacity reach full production? After all capacity reaches full production, what will be the approximate production of silver and tin? Atlantic Tin has a gold exploration right. Could you briefly introduce the situation of that mine? Does the company have any plans to increase its equity stake in Far East Gold in the future? Xingye Silver&Tin replied: Thank you for your attention! The technical standards used in the Hong Kong listing materials are based on the JORC Code formulated by Australia. For example, the JORC Code defines "Ore Reserves" as the economically mineable part of Measured and/or Indicated Mineral Resources. The above standards differ to some extent from China's standards, resulting in certain deviations between the relevant data in the long-term planning and actual production and operations. Specific production data shall be subject to the data disclosed in the company's periodic reports. 14. Question: Hello, Secretary of the Board. The resource volumes and capacity plans for Yinman and Yubang Mining disclosed in the Hong Kong IPO prospectus are lower than the company's previous communication figures. What is the core reason? Is it due to differences in the JORC Code methodology (only including Measured and Indicated Resources, excluding Inferred Resources)? Does it involve resource reductions, grade downgrades, or mining plan adjustments? Is there room for future resource additions or upward revisions? Xingye Silver&Tin replied: Thank you for your attention! The technical standards used in the Hong Kong listing materials are based on the JORC Code formulated by Australia. For example, the JORC Code defines "Ore Reserves" as the economically mineable part of Measured and/or Indicated Mineral Resources. The above standards differ to some extent from China's standards, resulting in certain deviations between the relevant data in the long-term planning and actual production and operations. Specific production data shall be subject to the data disclosed in the company's periodic reports. 15. Question: Mr. Sun, based on the materials disclosed for the company's Hong Kong listing, the company's production of silver and especially tin is significantly lower than previous expectations. Is this estimate, this guidance, the company's true guidance, or a theoretical guidance made by SRK based on their assessment? Does the company plan to issue a medium and long-term guidance that is in line with the company's actual production plans to clarify these expectations?Otherwise, these expectations may have a significant negative impact on the company and noticeably undermine investor confidence. In fact, this is also unfavorable for the company's listing on international capital markets for financing and further development. Xingye Silver&Tin's response: Thank you for your attention! The Hong Kong listing-related materials adopt the JORC Code established by Australia as the technical standard. For example, the JORC Code defines "Ore Reserves" as the economically mineable part of Measured and/or Indicated Mineral Resources. The above standards differ to some extent from China's standards, resulting in certain deviations between the relevant data in the long-term plan and actual production and operations. Specific production data shall be subject to the data disclosed in the company's periodic reports. 16. Question: Mr. Sun, hello. The prospectus explains that there will be discrepancies between the Competent Person's planned mineral processing production schedule and the enterprise's actual situation. Could Mr. Sun please introduce the production plan for silver and tin from 2028 to 2030? Xingye Silver&Tin's response: Thank you for your attention! The Hong Kong listing-related materials adopt the JORC Code established by Australia as the technical standard. For example, the JORC Code defines "Ore Reserves" as the economically mineable part of Measured and/or Indicated Mineral Resources. The above standards differ to some extent from China's standards, resulting in certain deviations between the relevant data in the long-term plan and actual production and operations. Specific production data shall be subject to the data disclosed in the company's periodic reports. 17. Question: Specifically regarding Yinman Mining: according to SRK's data, there will be significant grade decline in the future. In addition, the feed grade differs considerably from the company's disclosures in the 2025 annual report and previous annual reports. Is it necessary to issue a specific announcement to provide an explanation based on the different mining standards? Xingye Silver&Tin's response: Thank you for your attention! The Hong Kong listing-related materials adopt the JORC Code established by Australia as the technical standard. For example, the JORC Code defines "Ore Reserves" as the economically mineable part of Measured and/or Indicated Mineral Resources. The above standards differ to some extent from China's standards, resulting in certain deviations between the relevant data in the long-term plan and actual production and operations. Specific production data shall be subject to the data disclosed in the company's periodic reports. 18. Question: Have the specific construction commencement dates been confirmed for Yinman Phase II, Yubang Phase II, the Morocco tin mine, and the Budun Yingen mine managed by the controlling shareholder? Could you also provide the commissioning and full production timelines? Thank you. Xingye Silver&Tin's response: Thank you for your attention! Yinman Phase II is expected to commence construction on July 1; the Yubang 8.25 million mt/year project is expected to commence construction in Q3; the Atlantic Tin project has obtained all construction permits and is currently carrying out preliminary preparation work including contractor tender and equipment transportation, with construction expected to commence in mid-July; all the above projects are expected to achieve commissioning with feed materials in Q4 2028. The managed company Budun Yingen plans to commence construction in Q4, with production expected to begin in 2029. 19. Question: Director Sun, in a previous institutional survey, you clearly stated that the company's quarterly tin production of 3,600 mt can be achieved on a regular basis. Is there an opportunity to achieve this quarterly target this year? Xingye Silver&Tin's response: Thank you for your attention! Adhering to the principles of comprehensive resource recovery and safe, efficient mining, the company simultaneously mines Orebody No. 17 and other copper-tin orebodies. For the company's production data, please refer to the periodic reports published by the company on designated information disclosure media. 20. Question: Does the company have the right to abandon the acquisition of the relevant equity in Weiling Shares? Xingye Silver&Tin's response: Thank you for your attention! For the progress of the Weiling Shares project, please refer to the relevant announcements disclosed by the company on designated media. 21. Question: Director Sun, in the records of a previous institutional survey, the company responded that Yinman's quarterly tin production of 3,600 mt can be achieved on a regular basis, but it seems this has not been realized subsequently. Is there a possibility of attempting to reach this record this year? Xingye Silver&Tin's response: Thank you for your attention! Adhering to the principles of comprehensive resource recovery and safe, efficient mining, the company simultaneously mines Orebody No. 17 and other copper-tin orebodies. For the company's production data, please refer to the periodic reports published by the company on designated information disclosure media. 22. Question: Is there a plan to spin off minor metals other than silver and tin to Weiling Shares? Xingye Silver&Tin's response: Thank you for your attention! For the progress of the Weiling Shares project, please refer to the relevant announcements disclosed by the company on designated media. 23. Question: Has the matter of acquiring Weiling been terminated? Xingye Silver&Tin's response: Thank you for your attention! For the progress of the Weiling Shares project, please refer to the relevant announcements disclosed by the company on designated media. 24. Question: Has the company already dispatched personnel to take over the production and operations of Jiayu Mining? Xingye Silver&Tin's response: Thank you for your attention! For the progress of the Weiling Shares project, please refer to the relevant announcements disclosed by the company on designated media. 25. Question: After acquiring Weiling Shares, our company will become an AAH (Xingye Weiling H) publicly listed firm. What is the company's positioning for the three listing platforms? Xingye Silver&Tin's response: Thank you for your attention! For the progress of the Weiling Shares project, please refer to the relevant announcements disclosed by the company on designated media. 26. Question: In the company's 2025 annual report, the company stated "solidly advancing the subsequent acquisition and integration of Weiling Shares," but Weiling Shares has been subject to a delisting risk warning. What is the purpose of our acquisition of Weiling? Xingye Silver&Tin's response: Thank you for your attention!For updates on the progress of Weiling shares project, please refer to the relevant announcements disclosed by the company on designated media. Xingye Silver&Tin's Q1 report showed that from January to March 2026, the company achieved operating revenue of 2.13 billion yuan, up 85.32% YoY; net profit attributable to shareholders of the publicly listed firm was 1.338 billion yuan, up 257.32% YoY. As of March 31, 2026, the company's total assets were 19.689 billion yuan, and net assets attributable to shareholders of the publicly listed firm were 10.825 billion yuan. Operating revenue breakdown: From January to March 2026, the proportion of operating revenue from the company's main mineral products to total operating revenue was as follows: ore-derived silver (1.41 billion yuan, 66.21%), ore-derived tin (234 million yuan, 10.99%), ore-derived zinc (228.12 million yuan, 10.71%), ore-derived lead (71.85 million yuan, 3.37%), ore-derived antimony (53.1 million yuan, 2.49%), ore-derived gold (51.02 million yuan, 2.40%), ore-derived iron (44.17 million yuan, 2.07%), ore-derived copper (35.65 million yuan, 1.67%), and ore-derived indium (524,100 yuan, 0.02%). Among them, ore-derived tin and ore-derived silver combined accounted for 77.19% of total operating revenue. Xingye Silver&Tin's Q1 report stated that operating profit for the current period increased 238.16% compared with the previous period, total profit increased 236.36%, and net profit attributable to the parent company's shareholders increased 257.32%. The main reasons were: During the reporting period, the selling prices of the company's main mineral products such as silver and tin rose YoY; Yubang Mining's capacity was gradually released, with ore-derived silver production and sales increasing significantly YoY; and the transfer of 60% equity in Shuangyuan Non-ferrous realized investment income of 321 million yuan. Xingye Silver&Tin's 2025 annual report showed that in 2025, the company achieved operating revenue of 5.555 billion yuan, up 30.09% YoY; total profit of 2.096 billion yuan, up 18.75% YoY; and net profit attributable to shareholders of the publicly listed firm of 1.704 billion yuan, up 11.40% YoY. Xingye Silver&Tin's announcement showed that in 2025, the proportion of operating revenue from the company's main mineral products to total operating revenue was as follows: ore-derived silver (2.176 billion yuan, 39.17%), ore-derived tin (1.65 billion yuan, 29.70%), ore-derived zinc (975.87 million yuan, 17.57%), ore-derived lead (220.95 million yuan, 3.98%), ore-derived iron (180.38 million yuan, 3.25%), ore-derived copper (133 million yuan, 2.39%), ore-derived antimony (100.36 million yuan, 1.81%), ore-derived gold (82.34 million yuan, 1.48%), and ore-derived bismuth (16.67 million yuan, 0.30%). Among them, ore-derived tin and ore-derived silver combined accounted for 68.86% of total operating revenue. Regarding the company's main business and key performance drivers, Xingye Silver&Tin stated in its 2025 annual report: The company is a large mining group primarily engaged in the exploration, mining, and ore processing of non-ferrous metals and precious metals. As of the disclosure date of this report, the company had over 20 subsidiaries, of which 8 were operating mining companies, namely Yinman Mining, Qianjinda Mining, Yubang Mining, Rongguan Mining, Xilin Mining, Rongbang Mining, Ruineng Mining, and Bosheng Mining. Atlas Tin SAS under Atlantic Tin was in the construction phase for the Achmmach tin mine. Tanghe Times Mining was in a suspended construction phase, while Yitong Mining and Yunnan Xigui were in the exploration phase. Hainan Fund was primarily engaged in equity investment management; Xingye Gold (Hong Kong) was primarily engaged in metals and mining trading, corporate M&A, and was responsible for expanding markets outside China and acquiring quality mineral resources ex-China; Hainan Guomao and Tianjin Guomao were primarily engaged in non-ferrous metal mineral product sales and partial raw material procurement; Xingye Ruijin was primarily engaged in process research, technology R&D and upgrading in areas such as exploration, mining and processing, and comprehensive tailings recovery and utilization. Tibet Shannan Antimony Gold, Tibet Xinda Mining, and Xing'an League Fuxingtun Mining served as the company's regional resource integration platforms. During the reporting period, the company successfully acquired 85% equity in Yubang Mining. According to data compiled by the Silver Institute as of the end of 2023, Yubang Mining's monomer silver mine ranked first in Asia and fifth globally. This acquisition further strengthened the company's resource advantages and laid a solid resource foundation for sustainable development. Meanwhile, using its subsidiary Xingye Gold (Hong Kong) as the investment vehicle, the company increased investment in mineral resources outside China and successfully acquired 100% equity in Atlantic Tin. This acquisition was an important step in implementing the company's "going global" strategy. According to the classification standards for large-scale tin mines in the "Standards for Classification of Mineral Resource Reserve Scales" (DZ/T 0400-2022), the Achmmach tin mine owned by Atlantic Tin currently amounts to the equivalent of 5 large deposits. Through this integration of tin ore resources outside China, the company further improved its international tin ore layout and also reserved important strategic resources for long-term development. The company's main performance was derived from non-ferrous metal mining and processing operations. During the reporting period, revenue from non-ferrous metal mining and processing accounted for 99.64% of total operating revenue in 2025. Key factors affecting the operating performance of the mining and processing segment included production and sales volumes of major products, market prices, and costs of non-ferrous metal and precious metal mining and processing operations. Regarding the business plan, Xingye Silver&Tin stated in its 2025 annual report: 2026 is the concluding year of the company's "Second Three-Year" plan. The Board of Directors will closely focus on the theme of high-quality development, fully implement established work objectives, continue to deepen the philosophy of "Trust and Collaboration," and make an all-out push to achieve the closing targets of the "Second Three-Year" plan, with emphasis on the following areas of work: 1. Uphold the bottom line of safety and environmental protection. Using 2026 as the "Year of Safety Management Implementation," the company will comprehensively enforce safety responsibilities, consolidate the achievements of the "Year of Collective Safety Vigilance," strengthen risk anticipation and process control, resolutely prevent all types of safety and environmental protection incidents, and achieve safe, steady, green, and low-carbon development. 2. Advance key project construction at full speed, strengthen full-process management of project budgets, schedules, and quality, and coordinate the implementation of projects including the 2.97 million mt expansion of Yinman Mining, the 8.25 million mt expansion of Yubang Mining, the Morocco project, and the Budun Yingen Mining (under trusteeship) project, ensuring on-schedule completion, reaching full production, and releasing capacity benefits. 3. Continue to intensify exploration and reserve expansion efforts, properly balance production operations with geological exploration, steadily advance exploration of existing mines and surrounding areas, accelerate the conversion and upgrading of resource volumes, and continuously strengthen the resource foundation. 4. Deepen industrial synergy and resource integration. Leveraging the core regional advantages in Inner Mongolia, the company will steadily expand its resource layout outside China; adhering to silver and tin as the main business direction, it will enrich and optimize resource varieties. The company will solidly advance the subsequent acquisition and integration of Weiling shares, actively track quality mineral project opportunities in and outside China, and enhance overall competitiveness through synergistic industrial M&A. 5. Further strengthen institutional enforcement and internal control management, drive the effective implementation of various systems, processes, and control requirements, and enhance the company's refined management capabilities; strengthen enforcement capacity building to ensure production plans, comprehensive budgets, and various work deployments are fully implemented, and promote deep integration of corporate culture with business management. 6. Advance Hong Kong stock listing preparations at full speed, accelerate the establishment of a dual capital market platform at home and abroad, enhance cross-border capital operation capabilities, provide stronger financial support for the company's resource integration and strategy implementation, and drive the company's high-quality sustainable development to new heights. Reviewing the 2025 price performance of spot silver: the average price of SMM 1# silver (Ag99.99%) on December 31, 2025 was 18,430 yuan/kg, compared with 7,440 yuan/kg on December 31, 2024, representing an increase of 10,990 yuan/kg, or 147.71%. Recently, spot silver prices have been fluctuating. On May 27, the morning quote for SMM 1# silver (Ag99.99%) was 18,654–18,684 yuan/kg, with an average price of 18,669 yuan/kg, up 0.54% from the previous trading day. Compared with the average price of 18,430 yuan/kg on December 31, 2025, the price edged up by 239 yuan/kg, a gain of 1.3%. Regarding the outlook for precious metals, some institutions' views are as follows: FXTM Senior Research Analyst Lukman Otunuga stated: "As hopes for a US-Iran peace deal waver, gold prices have pulled back and are approaching the $4,450 support level. In addition, market expectations for a US Fed rate hike are steadily building amid conflict-driven price pressures, which is also exerting further downward pressure on gold prices." "Ultimately, if more signs emerge that price pressures are rising, it could further reinforce market bets that the US Fed will keep interest rates higher for longer, which would expose gold to greater downside risk." (Jin10 Data APP) CITIC Futures stated: Renewed tensions in US-Iran geopolitics have dampened risk appetite, while rising oil prices have reignited inflation concerns and strengthened market bets on a US Fed rate hike within the year, with multiple factors dragging silver prices lower. On one hand, US economic data still showed resilience, with the latest Chicago Fed National Activity Index for April at 0.14, significantly better than the previous reading of -0.15. The US May Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index and Present Situation Index both pulled back from prior readings, but the confidence index still beat market expectations. Combined with renewed US-Iran tensions pushing oil prices higher and sparking inflation concerns, market pricing for a year-end US Fed rate hike has strengthened. On the other hand, spot silver's fundamental drivers remained weak, with London market silver lease rates running at persistently low levels. In the short term, silver is expected to maintain a fluctuating trend, with overall capital interest still relatively low. Attention should be paid to US-Iran negotiation progress and strait navigation resumption. If US-Iran negotiations progress smoothly, this could drive a short-term silver rebound, but interest rate expectations will continue to suppress the trend. If geopolitical tensions escalate again and push oil prices higher, caution is warranted regarding further medium-term suppression of silver's industrial products elasticity and potential supply disruptions. Over the long term, weakening US dollar credibility, safe-haven demand, and investment demand provide solid support for silver prices. (Jin10 Data APP) A CITIC Securities research report noted that the resilience of the global economy is being tested by the Middle East conflict, with a glimmer of hope for the resumption of navigation through the Strait of Hormuz. The US economy may continue to grow mildly but unevenly this year, the pace of the EU's weak recovery is being delayed, and Japan's private-sector demand will inevitably be disrupted by energy shortages. High oil prices are already pushing up global inflation, with headline inflation rates in Europe and the US likely to fluctuate at highs this year, while Japan's headline inflation rate may continue its mild performance. The US Fed may not cut interest rates at all this year, while potential rate hikes by the ECB and BOJ are imminent, and the "unrestrained" fiscal stance of Japanese and European political circles may constitute a source of market risk this year. We maintain our view that US equities will outperform US bonds and that the US dollar index has support, and gold prices are expected to break free from their predicament as tail risks of inflation dissipate. ANZ analyst Kumar, Soni recently stated that inflation expectations, rising US Treasury yield, and a stronger US dollar are unfavourable factors putting gold prices under pressure. These factors will persist until we can clearly determine how long this conflict will last. Gold has fallen more than 14% since the outbreak of war in late February. OANDA Senior Market Analyst Kelvin Wong stated that since early March, the overall trend of the 10-year US Treasury yield has remained in a medium-term upward phase. Therefore, at this juncture, gold bulls may not be as aggressive in pushing prices higher. Gold is expected to continue weakening over the next few trading days, with resistance at $4,645 and support at $4,456. (Jin10 Data) Goldman Sachs stated that central banks are expected to increase gold purchases, helping gold prices rebound by year-end. Analysts Thomas, Lina and Struyven, Daan stated in a research report published on May 15 that the average monthly central bank gold purchases in 2026 are expected to rise to 60 mt. Based on the revised accumulation model, the 12-month average of central bank gold purchases in March reached 50 mt, compared with a previous figure of 29 mt. Citing internal surveys, the analysts noted that central banks have long-term rigid allocation demand for gold, and recent changes in the geopolitical landscape are likely to continue driving countries to accelerate asset diversification. JPMorgan lowered its 2026 average gold price forecast from $5,708 per ounce to $5,243 per ounce. As demand is expected to re-accelerate in H2 2026, the base case still projects gold prices reaching $6,000/ounce by year-end.

SMM News, May 27: Metals market: As of the midday close, most domestic base metals rose, while SHFE copper edged down. SHFE aluminum rose 0.8%. SHFE lead rose 0.33%, SHFE zinc fell 0.72%. SHFE tin rose 0.63%. SHFE nickel rose 1.91%. In addition, the most-traded casting aluminum futures rose 0.52%, the most-traded alumina contract rose 0.96%. The most-traded lithium carbonate contract fell 1.09%. The most-traded silicon metal contract rose 0.47%. The most-traded polysilicon futures contract fell 2.17%. Ferrous metals mostly fell. Iron ore fell 0.19%, rebar fell 0.69%, hot-rolled coil fell 0.44%, and stainless steel rose 1.49%. Coking coal and coke: the most-traded coking coal contract fell 1.48%, and the most-traded coke contract fell 1.77%. Overseas base metals, as of 11:38, LME metals rose across the board. LME copper rose 0.6%. LME aluminum rose 0.39%. LME lead rose 0.05%. LME zinc rose 0.4%. LME tin rose 1.24%. LME nickel rose 0.32%. Precious metals, as of 11:38, COMEX gold rose 0.08%, COMEX silver rose 0.63%. Domestic precious metals: the most-traded SHFE gold contract fell 1.05%, the most-traded SHFE silver contract fell 0.73%. In addition, as of the midday close, the most-traded platinum futures contract fell 1.15%, and the most-traded palladium futures contract fell 0.98%. As of the midday close, the most-traded Europe containerized freight index contract rose 0.77%, closing at 2,949 points. As of 11:38 on May 27, midday futures quotes for selected contracts: Spot Cargo and Fundamentals Alumina: SMM statistics show that the scale of alumina projects under construction and under planning in Guinea has exceeded... Macro Front China: [NBS: From January to April, profits of China's above-scale industrial enterprises rose 18.2%; non-ferrous metals sector profits surged 117.8%] NBS data showed that from January to April, total profits of China's above-scale industrial enterprises reached 2.44 trillion yuan, up 18.2% YoY. From January to April, the mining sector posted profits of 361.84 billion yuan, up 26.0% YoY; the manufacturing sector posted profits of 1.80 trillion yuan, up 20.4%; and the electricity, heat, gas, and water production and supply sector posted profits of 272.01 billion yuan, down 1.9%. From January to April, profitability of major industries was as follows: non-ferrous metals smelting and rolling processing (up 1.2x YoY), computer, communications, and other electronic equipment manufacturing (up 1.1x), chemical raw materials and chemical products manufacturing (up 73.4%), coal mining and washing (up 21.0%), textile (up 11.2%), petroleum and natural gas extraction (up 8.1%), petroleum, coal, and other fuel processing (turned from loss to profit), general equipment manufacturing (down 0.6%), electricity and heat production and supply (down 2.5%), special equipment manufacturing (down 7.2%), electrical machinery and equipment manufacturing (down 11.4%), agricultural and sideline food processing (down 11.8%), automobile manufacturing (down 16.8%), non-metallic minerals products (down 50.7%), and ferrous metals smelting and rolling processing (down 51.5%). [PBOC Conducts 177.6 Billion Yuan in Open Market Reverse Repo Operations with Net Injection of 127.6 Billion Yuan in a Single Day] The PBOC conducted 177.6 billion yuan in 7-day reverse repo operations in the open market at an operation rate of 1.40%, unchanged from the previous day. 50 billion yuan in reverse repos matured today. US Dollar: As of 11:38, the US dollar index fell 0.05% to 99.1. According to Nikkei, Fed's Kashkari stated that the US Fed may implement a "series" of interest rate hikes in response to inflation concerns triggered by the Middle East situation. During the late-April FOMC meeting, the US Fed kept interest rates unchanged. Kashkari and two other officials dissented against the decision to include language in the Fed's statement hinting at future monetary easing. In a written interview, Kashkari said: "I think the next rate adjustment could be an interest rate cut, or it could be a rate hike." He used this to express his differing views. Kashkari said the outcome would depend on inflation trends, which depend on whether the Strait of Hormuz would reopen soon or remain effectively closed due to further damage to infrastructure in the region, the latter of which would exacerbate the global energy shortage. Kashkari said the concern was that long-term inflation expectations of enterprises and households "could become unanchored." He said the FOMC "may well need to respond forcefully," and rate hikes, or even a series of rate hikes, could be necessary measures. According to CME "FedWatch": the probability of the US Fed keeping rates unchanged through June was 99.2%, with a 0.8% probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point interest rate cut. The probability of the US Fed keeping rates unchanged through July was 88.6%, with an 11.3% probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point rate hike and a 0% probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point interest rate cut. (Jin10 Data) A CITIC Securities research report noted that the resilience of the global economy is being tested by the Middle East conflict, while a glimmer of hope for the resumption of navigation through the Strait of Hormuz has emerged. The US economy is likely to continue growing mildly but unevenly this year, the pace of the EU's weak recovery is being delayed, and Japan's private-sector demand is inevitably subject to disruptions from energy shortages. High oil prices are already pushing up global inflation, with headline inflation rates in Europe and the US likely to fluctuate at highs this year, while Japan's headline inflation rate may continue its mild performance. The US Fed may not cut interest rates at all this year, while potential rate hikes by the European and Japanese central banks are imminent, and the "unrestrained" fiscal stances of Japanese and European political circles could constitute a source of market risk this year. We maintain our view that US equities will outperform US Treasuries and the US dollar index will find support, while gold prices are expected to break out of their current range as tail risks to inflation dissipate. Other currencies: The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) kept rates unchanged for the third consecutive meeting, opting to continue observing the impact of the global energy shock on domestic consumption and medium-term inflation. The RBNZ's Monetary Policy Committee on Wednesday held the Official Cash Rate (OCR) at 2.25%, in line with market expectations. The RBNZ's latest projections show a rising likelihood of at least two 25bp rate hikes before year-end. In its post-meeting statement, the RBNZ said: "Taken together, the OCR will likely need to be raised sooner and by more than projected in the February Monetary Policy Statement." "The pace of hikes will depend on the relative impact of persistent wage and pricing behavior versus weakening economic activity on medium-term inflation pressures." Following the statement, NZD/USD rose. (Jin10 Data) Bank of Japan (BoJ) Governor Ueda Kazuo said vigilance is needed regarding the impact of surging oil prices on underlying inflation trends, but did not clearly signal how this factor would influence next month's policy meeting outcome. Ueda said on Wednesday: "Japan's experience shows that oil price shocks are never just oil price shocks; they actually test the entire inflation mechanism." Reviewing the impact of oil crises since the 1970s, he noted: "We are in fact experiencing the fifth oil price shock." "If a temporary shock alters wages, inflation expectations, and corporate pricing behavior, it may evolve into persistent inflation." Ueda did not directly signal the future policy path, but as his remarks reflected concerns over the impact of high oil prices, markets may further strengthen speculation about the prospect of a rate hike at the BoJ's June meeting. Overnight swap market pricing shows traders currently assign roughly a 75% probability to a 25bp rate hike by the BoJ next month. (Jin10 Data) Australia's April core inflation rate remained above the upper bound of the Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) target range, further reinforcing market expectations that the RBA will maintain its hawkish stance after consecutive rate hikes this year. Data on Wednesday showed the closely watched core inflation gauge—the annual trimmed mean inflation rate excluding volatile items—rose 3.4% YoY, in line with economists' expectations. The RBA targets keeping inflation near the midpoint of its 2%-3% target band. Interest rate swap markets currently price the probability of another rate hike in August at around 50%, down from 64% before the data release. Under the dual pressure of high borrowing costs and surging fuel prices driven by the Iran war, the Australian economy is beginning to show signs of weakness. The unemployment rate in April rose to a four-and-a-half-year high, while approximately one-third of enterprises reported declining revenue over the past four weeks, and half reported rising operating costs. The market widely expects that after raising rates at all three meetings earlier this year, the Reserve Bank of Australia will hold the cash rate unchanged at 4.35% in June. Sue-Ellen Luke, head of price statistics at the Australian Bureau of Statistics, said: "Automotive fuel prices currently remain 23.5% higher than before the outbreak of the Middle East conflict. The impact of rising oil prices is also reflected in goods and services with higher transportation and logistics costs." (Jin10 Data) Data: Today will see the release of the RBNZ interest rate decision as of May 27, Switzerland's May ZEW Investor Confidence Index, US weekly ADP employment change for the week ending May 9, and the US May Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index, among other data. In addition, attention should be paid to: Bank of Japan Governor Ueda Kazuo delivering a speech at a monetary policy conference hosted by the BOJ; the RBNZ releasing its interest rate decision and monetary policy statement; RBNZ Governor Breman holding a monetary policy press conference. Crude oil: As of 11:38, both benchmarks declined, with WTI down 2.03% and Brent down 1.75%. Oil prices fell in Asian early trading as traders weighed the prospects of a US-Iran deal. Front-month Brent crude declined. Despite a resurgence in hostilities, hopes remain for an agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Tehran signaled that the attacks would not derail negotiations, while US Secretary of State Rubio said it would take a few days to finalise a potential deal. Uncertainty remains high. Kieran Tomkins of Capital Economics noted that while crude oil options data suggest investors expect prices to pull back over the next three months, their conviction is unusually low. He said options indicate investors see a swift resumption of supply through the strait as the most likely outcome, but their implied expectations suggest a 37% probability that oil prices will exceed $100 per barrel in three months. (Zhitong Finance) On the evening of May 26 local time, the Public Relations Department of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) Navy announced that over the past 24 hours, 25 vessels including oil tankers, container ships, and other commercial vessels passed through the Strait of Hormuz with permission, under the coordination and security guarantee of the IRGC Navy. Meanwhile, the IRGC Navy stated that it is exercising "effective and authoritative" control over the Strait of Hormuz, and any act of aggression will be met with a severe response. (CCTV News) (Jin10 Data APP) Spot market overview: ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ►