[Worsening Supply Concerns and Gradual Demand Recovery Stabilize the Center of Aluminum Prices with Geopolitical Premiums ]Overall, the market's core focus in the period ahead is on whether key aluminum smelters in the Middle East will further expand production cuts. If the cuts continue to materialize, they will provide strong upward momentum for global aluminum prices, coupled with support from expectations of a gradual release of demand during China’s peak season. In the short term, aluminum prices are expected to remain in a high-level consolidation pattern.

Iron ore futures showed a stronger trend in the morning session today but weakened in the afternoon. The main contract I2605 eventually closed at 805 yuan/ton, down 1.29% from the previous trading session.

Dalian iron ore was stronger in the morning session today, but pulled back in the afternoon. The most-traded contract, I2605, finally closed at 805 yuan/mt, down 1.29% from the previous trading session. Spot prices fell by about 3-7 yuan from the previous trading day. Traders were moderately active in offering quotes, while steel mills made fewer inquiries; as of now, spot market transactions were average. Fundamentals, inventory at the 10-port sample showed clear structural divergence this week. Among them, mainstream mid-grade ores such as PB fines and blended fines saw a notable inventory buildup, with PB fines surging 1.24 million WoW to nearly 9 million. In contrast, IOCJ fines, super special fines, and high-silicon Brazilian coarse ore bucked the trend and posted destocking. This divergence indicated that, against the backdrop of steel mill profits coming under pressure, the consumption side was accelerating toward extreme cost reduction. Steel mills generally adopted a barbell-style ore blending strategy of pairing high- and low-grade materials, significantly squeezing demand for mainstream mid-grade ore and putting further pressure on iron ore's upward momentum. On the macro front, driven by persistently high inflation outside China and fading expectations for US Fed interest rate cuts, tighter US dollar liquidity further weighed on bullish sentiment in commodities. Combined with pressure from elevated inventory on the micro side and weak demand for mid-grade ore, iron ore prices lacked drivers for an upward breakout in the short term and are expected to remain in the doldrums within a narrow range.

This afternoon, gold and silver plunged rapidly. Among them, spot silver extended its intraday decline to 6%, quoted at $70.37 per ounce. Spot gold fell below $4,600 per ounce, down more than 3%.

[China’s Aluminum Ingot Inventory Continues to Build Up, Aluminum Prices Remain in a High-Level Consolidation Pattern ]Overall, the geopolitical situation in the Middle East remained the core factor affecting the global aluminum market. A series of production cuts and damage incidents at Middle Eastern aluminum plants is expected to provide strong upward momentum for aluminum prices in and outside China, coupled with support from expectations of a gradual release of peak-season demand in China. In the short term, aluminum prices are expected to remain in a high-level consolidation pattern.

Iron phosphate negotiations in April were deadlocked, with offers hitting 13,000 yuan/mt. The price surge appeared raw-material driven, but in fact reflected pricing power shifting upstream after a reversal in supply-demand fundamentals. Downstream buyers cited “cost increases” to push back, yet conveniently forgot the upstream losses quietly absorbed over the past three years. This was never about simple cost pass-through—it was a restructuring of profit distribution across the chain.

The iron ore market showed a volatile pattern today, with prices fluctuating upward in the morning before retreating in the afternoon. The main contract I2605 closed at 812 yuan/ton, up 0.12% from the previous trading session.

Dalian iron ore futures held up well in morning trading today before pulling back in the afternoon. The most-traded contract, I2605, finally closed at 812 yuan/mt, up 0.12% from the previous trading session. Spot prices rose by about 2 yuan from the previous trading day. Traders were moderately active in offering quotes, while steel mills mainly purchased to restock for immediate needs, with inquiries remaining cautious; as of now, transactions in the spot market were relatively sluggish. As for this week’s fundamental data, according to SMM monitoring data on daily average hot metal production, the blast furnace operating rate recently rose 1.05% WoW to 89.71%; daily average hot metal production reached 2.436 million mt, an increase of 25,700 mt WoW. The continued stable resumption of blast furnace production over the past three weeks effectively boosted rigid demand for iron ore raw material, providing solid bottom support for ore prices. Overall, iron ore fundamentals showed a pattern of strong downside support and upside pressure from inventory. In the short term, ore prices were expected to move sideways in a narrow range, until new information or changes emerged in the market, which could trigger corresponding fluctuations.

[SHFE Aluminum Night Session Closed Higher, with Geopolitics and Fundamentals Jointly Supporting Aluminum Prices] Overall, the geopolitical situation in the Middle East remained the core factor affecting the global aluminum market. A series of production cuts and damage incidents at Middle Eastern aluminum plants is expected to provide strong upward momentum for aluminum prices in and outside China, together with support from expectations of the gradual release of peak-season demand in China. In the short term, aluminum prices are expected to remain in a high-level consolidation pattern.

SMM News, March 30: During the day, the most-traded SHFE lead 2605 contract opened at 16,460 yuan/mt. Prices edged lower in early trading, then gradually moved higher in choppy trading, supported by destocking of lead ingot inventory in China. In the afternoon, it maintained a relatively firm consolidation range of 16,490-16,510 yuan/mt, and briefly climbed to 16,535 yuan/mt near the close, before finally closing at 16,495 yuan/mt, forming a bearish candlestick with no upper shadow, down 60 yuan/mt, or 0.36%. For primary lead, inventory drawdowns at lead smelters and social warehouses provided some support to lead prices. For secondary lead, production resumptions at some secondary lead smelters and maintenance expectations at some enterprises coexisted in April. On the downstream demand side, producers purchased as needed, with relatively more bargaining in some cases, and transactions were relatively scattered due to the wider range of procurement options. Overall market supply and demand remained in a tug-of-war, and lead prices are expected to continue moving sideways within a range. Data source disclaimer: Except for publicly available information, all other data is processed and derived by SMM based on publicly available information, market communication, and SMM's internal database models, and is for reference only and does not constitute decision-making advice.