As of now, the Indonesia MHP nickel FOB price stood at $15,348/mt Ni, and the Indonesia MHP cobalt FOB price was $49,311/mt Co. The MHP payables for SMM battery-grade nickel sulphate index were 85-86%, while the MHP cobalt element payable indicator for SMM refined cobalt (Rotterdam warehouse) was 92%. The Indonesia high-grade nickel matte FOB price was $15,731/mt Ni.

SMM Nickel News, August 4: Macro and Market News: (1) The US and Iran give conflicting accounts of negotiations: Trump insists talks with Iran are underway, divided into two phases—separate discussions on the Strait of Hormuz reopening and denuclearization—and claims the strait will reopen by August 4 at the latest; Iran denies talks with the US, stating it is only advancing related negotiations with Oman. (2) US Fed's Williams: Optimistic that inflationary pressures will gradually ease. The Fed will act to achieve price stability if inflation does not return to the 2% path as expected. Spot Market: On August 4, the average price of SMM #1 refined nickel was 133,400 yuan/mt, up 2,000 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. In terms of spot premiums, the average for Jinchuan #1 refined nickel was 1,150 yuan/mt, flat from the previous trading day, and the range for mainstream domestic brands of electrodeposited nickel was -300 to 400 yuan/mt. Futures Market: The most-traded SHFE nickel contract (2609) surged in early trading, closing the morning session at 132,650 yuan/mt, up 1.55%. Nickel prices rallied sharply today, driven by market rumors of quota tightening as the period enters a critical phase for approving Indonesia's supplementary RKAB nickel ore quotas. Indonesia's Minister of Energy and Mineral Resources, Bahlil Lahadalia, stated on August 3 that the government will implement a "measured relaxation" of the RKAB, with additional quotas expected to be released gradually while maintaining the market supply-demand balance. The most-traded SHFE nickel contract is expected to trade in the 128,000-135,000 yuan/mt range in the near term.

Indonesia’s Minister of Energy and Mineral Resources (ESDM) Bahlil Lahadalia stated that the royalty contributions paid by enterprises will become one of the key considerations in the evaluation for the approval of the Mining Work Plan and Budget (RKAB). Bahlil stated on August 3: "If some companies pay higher royalties while others pay lower ones, who should be given priority? Naturally, I must prioritize those that pay higher royalties. " This policy means that mining enterprises' contribution to state revenue may become an additional evaluation factor in future RKAB quota allocation. In addition to production capacity, market conditions and domestic downstream industry demand, royalty contributions may also affect approval priorities. At present, the Indonesian government is still reviewing the RKAB applications submitted by mining enterprises, and will determine the scale of additional production quotas based on market supply and demand. The final quota allocation has not yet been announced, and relevant data is still under calculation. SMM believes that the inclusion of royalty contributions in the RKAB evaluation criteria may lead to more selective quota approvals in the future, giving priority to mining enterprises with higher contributions to state revenue. We will continue to monitor the specific implementation of this criterion and its potential impact on the allocation of Indonesia's future nickel ore supply.

On August 4, the SMM battery-grade nickel sulphate average price remained stable.

Indonesia’s Minister of Energy and Mineral Resources (ESDM) Bahlil Lahadalia said on August 3 that the government will implement a “measured relaxation” of RKAB, with additional mining quotas to be approved gradually while maintaining supply-demand balance. “We will relax it, but in a measured way,” Bahlil said, adding that the government “doesn’t want production to exceed market demand.” The adjustment aims to improve production management flexibility based on market conditions and downstream industry requirements. Bahlil noted that royalty contributions will be considered in the RKAB evaluation process, with higher royalty-paying companies receiving priority consideration. The government is still reviewing miners’ RKAB submissions and has not disclosed the potential quota increase, stating that figures are still under calculation. SMM expects additional RKAB approvals to gradually improve Indonesia’s nickel ore availability in H2 2026. However, uncertainty remains over the final quota size, approval timeline, and allocation criteria, keeping miners and smelters focused on further policy developments.

[8.4 Morning Briefing] Trump stated that an agreement has been reached regarding the Strait of Hormuz, and an agreement on denuclearization will also be reached, with negotiations scheduled to begin on Monday afternoon; Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Baghaei stated that the situation in the Strait of Hormuz will not return to the pre-conflict state, and the new shipping lane agreed with Oman will be determined through mutual consultations. The most-traded SHFE nickel 2609 contract plunged below 130,000 yuan in the morning session, closing at 129,520 yuan/mt at the end of the morning session, down 1.91%. As U.S.-Iran negotiations begin, the Strait of Hormuz is expected to resume navigation, sulfur cost support has weakened, and nickel prices have fallen sharply. In the short term, the most-traded SHFE nickel contract is expected to trade in the range of 128,000-135,000 yuan/mt.

Northern Philippines is experiencing adverse weather conditions as Tropical Depression Luis moves across Northern Luzon, bringing heavy rainfall, strong winds, and rough seas to affected areas. The system is forecast to remain a tropical depression before weakening into a remnant low by 5 August. For the nickel industry, intermittent heavy rainfall and localized flooding may temporarily disrupt mining operations in northern producing regions, while rough sea conditions could delay ore loading and vessel departures at ports serving Northern Luzon. We will continue to monitor the storm's development and assess any potential impact on mining operations, port activities, and nickel ore shipments.

Indonesia's nickel industry is facing depletion of high-grade laterite resources continues to reduce average ore quality. It is expected that the country's average nickel ore grade will decline by a further 4–5% in 2026. For example, although transactions may be priced as 1.50% Ni ore, the actual delivered ore grade may average only around 1.43–1.44% Ni. Although the decline appears modest, lower ore grades require miners to process significantly more material to produce the same amount of contained nickel, increasing stripping ratios, raising mining costs, and tightening the supply of premium-grade ore for both RKEF and HPAL smelters.

In its official H1 2026 release, PT Trimegah Bangun Persada (Harita Nickel, IDX: NCKL) said its Rp17.1tn revenue was supported by operational discipline and capacity optimization amid a still-challenging global nickel market. CFO Suparsin Darmo Liwan said nickel ore sales volumes rose YoY, helped by the new PT Gane Tambang Sentosa (GTS) mine running since Q3 2025 and added lines at the KPS pyrometallurgy plant. Ferronickel sales rose notably on higher KPS RKEF output, while HPAL (MHP) sales were stable, shaped by delivery scheduling. Harita is also building a 50 MW HPAL waste-heat plant (Q4 2026) and a 40 MW solar plant (99% built).

As of now, the FOB price of Indonesian MHP nickel is $15,418/mt Ni, and the FOB price of Indonesian MHP cobalt is $49,331/mt Co. The MHP payables (against SMM battery-grade nickel sulphate index) are 85-86, and the MHP cobalt payables (against SMM refined cobalt (Rotterdam warehouse)) is 92. The FOB price of Indonesian high-grade nickel matte is $15,802/mt Ni.