Nickel Ore " Indonesia Officially Issues Presidential Decree Requiring Designated State-Owned Enterprises to Monopolize Strategic Resource Exports Starting This June " 1. Price Dynamics and HMA Revisions The Indonesian nickel ore price remained stable this week. The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (ESDM) has officially released the Nickel Mineral Benchmark Price (HMA) for the second half of May 2026. Nickel HMA: $18,849.3/dmt (up $1047.15 or 5.88% from $17,802.14 in early May). Cobalt HMA: $55,854/dmt. Iron Ore HMA: $1.58/dmt. Chrome Ore HMA: $6.37/dmt. Current port-delivered prices for 1.6% grade pyrometallurgical ore (saprolite) stand at $77.8-80.8/wmt. In contrast, 1.2% grade hydrometallurgical ore (limonite) is priced at approximately $28-33/wm.. 2. Supply-Demand Fundamentals and Weather Impacts For pyrometallurgical ore, unseasonal, abnormally heavy rainfall in the Central and South Sulawesi regions (Morowali and surrounding mining areas) has severely disrupted land transportation and barge transshipment. A series of micro-earthquakes (reaching up to magnitude M$1.9$) that occurred near Morowali between May 17 and 18 further exacerbated this impact. The combination of highly saturated soil moisture and minor crustal tremors has significantly increased the risk of landslides and slope instability, forcing mines to slow down their extraction and heavy-truck transportation pace for safety reasons. Therefore, even though the approval rate of regulatory quotas (RKAB) has reached approximately 90%, the spot supply of high-grade ore remains tight. To cope with exorbitant costs and tight supply, smelters are actively adopting cost-reduction strategies. These include blending low-grade ores into raw materials to lower the overall grade, promoting a unified premium pricing model of "HPM + USD $7–$10/wmt," and implementing standardized benchmarks for the chemical specifications of pyrometallurgical ore (Cobalt 0.05%, Iron 20%, Chrome 1%) to eliminate additional premiums for individual ore components. Meanwhile, the hydrometallurgical nickel ore market continues to suffer a severe disconnect from official pricing. The price of low-grade hydrometallurgical ore is under severe pressure and has completely failed to follow the upward trend of the new HPM. This price depression is primarily driven by the dual contraction of smelter operating rates and immediate raw material demand, with the core trigger being a potential production cut in Mixed Hydroxide Precipitate (MHP) caused by a sulfuric acid supply shortage in May. Against a backdrop of relatively stable inventory levels, MHP refineries are leveraging this low-capacity operating environment to aggressively suppress procurement bids, causing hydrometallurgical ore prices to continue hovering at low levels. 3. SMM Internal Estimates The new pricing formula has led to increased price divergence and amplified volatility, particularly influenced by higher associated cobalt content in certain ores. SMM calculations show that the new HPM for 1.2% grade limonite is approximately $49.95, significantly higher than current market assessments. The new HPM for 1.6% grade saprolite is $70.83; the inclusion of higher cobalt content in the new formula has markedly amplified price fluctuations. While actual market transaction prices currently remain above this benchmark, the gap is steadily narrowing. 4. Regulatory Quotas (RKAB) and Market Outlook According to the ESDM, RKAB approvals for 2026 have reached approximately 90%. SMM statistics indicate that the total approved quota for Indonesian nickel ore stands at roughly 240 million wmt. The macroeconomic and policy focus of the market has recently shifted, primarily concentrating on the following two major export and contract regulatory policies: DSI's Full Takeover of the Export Mechanism: The Indonesian government has confirmed that starting January 1, 2027, DSI will fully take over the export business of coal, palm oil, and ferroalloys. This policy will facilitate a smooth transition of the export mechanism in two phases. Since ferroalloys (including ferronickel, NPI, etc.) fall within the scope of this takeover, the market is closely evaluating the impact of this transition period on the export logistics and compliance costs of Chinese-funded smelters. Crackdown on Under-Invoiced Long-Term Contracts: The Indonesian government emphasized that it will honor existing, valid long-term export contracts to maintain commercial credit. However, at the same time, the government will strictly investigate and punish long-term contracts suspected of "under-invoicing" (low-price customs declarations). It is reported that relevant Indonesian departments will soon hold consultations with major industry associations to ensure a smooth policy transition while plugging loopholes that lead to tax revenue losses from underpricing. Nickel Pig Iron " Supply-Demand Price Gap Widens; Short-Term Prices to Fluctuate within a Range " The average price of SMM 10-12% NPI average price fell by RMB 5.7 per nickel unit week-on-week to RMB 1140.3 per nickel unit (ex-works, tax included), while the Indonesia NPI FOB index dipped by USD 1.37 USD per nickel unit to an average of USD 146.52 per nickel unit. Downstream purchasing sentiment dropped even more visibly, intensifying the divide in market mindsets between buyers and sellers. On the supply side, existing NPI production cutbacks, coupled with recent disruptions from Indonesian export policy updates, have gradually tightened spot availability. Consequently, upstream producers are holding back cargo to defend their asking prices, generally keeping their offers firm. Sellers only slightly softened their quotes under the weight of weak futures markets, and their willingness to offload cargo at lower price levels remains low. This expectation of tighter market supply provides a solid floor for prices. On the demand side, pressure remains acute. The stainless steel market lacks upward momentum, forcing steel mills to adopt a highly cautious procurement stance centered strictly around hand-to-mouth restocking. Furthermore, as the price-to-performance advantage of stainless steel scrap expands, downstream buyers are pushing hard for discounts. Target buying prices remain heavily clustered between RMB 1,120 and 1,130/mtu, leaving a massive spread against upstream asking prices that makes reconciling the two sides very difficult. Market Outlook: While expectations of tightening supply will support spot prices, the weak futures market and competitive pricing from alternative raw materials will continue to cap upside gains. Accordingly, high-nickel pig iron prices are expected to exhibit a high-level, range-bound volatile trend next week.

Philippine Nickel Ore Market: Ample Inventories at Chinese and Indonesian Smelters, Tug-of-War between Sellers and Buyers Driving Nickel Ore Prices Under Pressure Philippine nickel ore prices declined this week. Price-wise, Philippine nickel ore CIF China quotes: Ni 1.3% grade at $53-56/wmt, Ni 1.4% grade at $61-64/wmt, Ni 1.5% grade at $68-71/wmt. In addition, the 1.3% grade CIF average price from the Philippines to Indonesia was quoted at $48-50/wmt, and the 1.4% grade CIF average price at $56-58/wmt. Recently, Philippine nickel ore prices have generally faced downward pressure. In terms of supply, as the rainy season ended in major producing areas, shipments of Philippine nickel ore increased significantly. Most mines resumed normal shipping, effectively easing the previously tight supply situation. Meanwhile, demand side, large smelters from China and Indonesia were leveraging ample inventories and favorable supply availability in the market to push for lower prices. As buyers on both sides only accepted lower prices, miners had to compromise. In terms of export flows, nickel ore shipments to Indonesia were relatively low this week, indicating a slow procurement pace in the Indonesian market. Given the still-weak recovery in nickel ore shipments to Indonesia, bearish market sentiment is expected to drag nickel ore prices further down. Inventory side, as of May 8 (Friday), nickel ore inventory at Chinese ports stood at 4.55 million mt, up 150,000 mt WoW, with total port inventory equivalent to approximately 35,700 mt Ni in metal content. Demand side, China's NPI prices continued to rise overall this week, while spot transaction prices edged down to 1,146 yuan/nickel unit. The high-grade NPI market overall hovered at highs this week, with significant divergence between sellers and buyers. The price center shifted slightly lower amid the tug-of-war between cost support and weak demand, and overall market sentiment remained subdued. Smelters' continued push for lower prices on the raw material side caused the nickel ore CIF price center to shift further downward. As a result, Philippine ore FOB price support was extremely lacking. Considering destocking and maintaining trade turnover, miners are expected to make concessions in subsequent quotes. Currently, bearish sentiment dominates the market, and there remains room for further downside in prices in the short term. Prices are expected to maintain a downward trend in May. Indonesian Nickel Ore Market: Indonesian Nickel Benchmark Price Breaks Through $18,000, Extreme Weather and Policy Dynamics Intensify Price Divergence Indonesian nickel ore market prices fluctuated overall this week. Indonesia's Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (ESDM) officially released the nickel mineral benchmark price (HMA) for the second half of May 2026. The HMA for the first half of May was: nickel at $18,849.3/mt (up $1,047.15 from the first period of May 2026 at $17,802.14, a 5.88% increase); cobalt at $55,854/mt; iron ore at $1.58/mt; chrome ore at $6.37/mt. Currently, the CIF price of 1.6%-grade saprolite ore reached $77.8–80.8/wmt, up $3.3 from last week. The price of 1.2%-grade limonite ore was approximately $28.33/wmt, flat from last week. 2. Supply-Demand Fundamentals and Weather Impact Saprolite ore: Production from major mines is expected to edge up in May. Although Indonesia has largely entered the dry season, abnormally heavy rainfall hit the central and southern Sulawesi region mid-week. As a result, land transportation and barge transshipment plans at some small and medium-sized mines were forced to halt. Despite RKAB approval progress reaching 90%, spot supply of high-grade saprolite ore remains tight; nevertheless, market expectations for easing supply have strengthened notably compared to earlier periods. Notably, the average grade of ore accepted by smelters has begun to trend downward. Although the decline is not yet significant, some smelters have started blending low-grade ore into their raw materials to alleviate the pressure from high-grade ore shortages and surging costs. Pricing side, smelters currently primarily adopt fixed pricing or a "HPM + $7–10 premium" model. Additionally, some smelters have begun implementing uniform saprolite ore benchmark specifications (cobalt 0.05%, iron 20%, chromium 1%), regardless of differences in actual ore output from individual mines. Furthermore, composition bonuses in the market have been reduced to minimal levels, as most bonuses are already incorporated into the fixed premium. Overall, as HMA has already breached the $18,000/mt threshold and the nickel ore royalty has risen to 15%, downside room for Indonesian nickel ore prices is limited in the short term. Limonite ore: Limonite ore prices declined and did not follow the increase in the new HPM. Affected by a potential sulphuric acid supply deficit in May that could lead to MHP production cuts, limonite ore demand was under pressure. Against a backdrop of relatively stable inventory, smelters continued to push for lower prices aggressively. 3. SMM Internal Estimates: The new formula led to ore price divergence and amplified fluctuations (particularly affected by the relatively high associated cobalt content in certain ores). SMM estimates showed that the new HPM for 1.2%-grade limonite ore was approximately $49.95, already significantly higher than actual market assessed prices; the new HPM for 1.6%-grade saprolite ore was $70.83, and under the new pricing formula, price fluctuations were notably amplified due to the higher cobalt content in certain ores. Although current actual market transaction prices remain above this benchmark, the gap between the two is steadily narrowing. 4. Regulatory Quota (RKAB) and Market Outlook: Indonesia's ESDM indicated that the 2026 RKAB approval progress has reached approximately 90%. According to SMM statistics, the cumulative approved RKAB quota for Indonesian nickel ore totalled approximately 230–240 million wmt. The market widely expects the final quota to be officially finalised by month-end of April. Affected by the combined impact of expectations of RKAB quota reductions, resource uncertainty, and the shortage of high-grade ore, some smelters have already begun raising trade premiums and surcharges to secure supply sources. The market has recently been closely watching the announcement by Indonesia's Minister of Energy and Mineral Resources (ESDM) Bahlil Lahadalia on Monday (May 11, 2026) that the government will postpone its plan to impose export duties (bea keluar) on nickel downstream products in order to formulate a reasonable pricing formula that is a "win-win" for both the country and enterprises. Although this tariff is intended to drive the transformation of the nickel industry, which currently achieves only 40% deep processing, toward higher value-added products (such as moving beyond merely producing NPI), the government decided to temporarily "shelve" the proposal after hearing industry opinions.

[SMM Analysis] Reassessing the Logic Behind Sulfur's "Surge" Driving Nickel Prices Higher

Nickel Ore " Transition in Pricing Systems and Standardization of Pyrometallurgical Ore Benchmarks; Convergence of Iron, Cobalt, and Chrome Elements " 1. Price Dynamics and HMA Revisions The Indonesian nickel market experienced overall price volatility this week. The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (ESDM) has officially released the Nickel Mineral Benchmark Price (HMA) for the first half of May 2026. Nickel HMA: $17,802/dmt (up $868.57 or 5.13% from $16,933.57 in late April). Cobalt HMA: $55,854/dmt. Iron Ore HMA: $1.56/dmt. Chrome Ore HMA: $6.37/dmt. Current port-delivered prices for 1.6% grade pyrometallurgical ore (saprolite) stand at $74.5–$77.5/wmt, an increase of $1 from last week, remaining largely stable. In contrast, 1.2% grade hydrometallurgical ore (limonite) is priced at approximately $28.33/wmt, down $2 from the previous week. 2. Supply-Demand Fundamentals and Weather Impacts Pyrometallurgical Ore: As the rainy season concludes in Halmahera and Sulawesi, mine production is expected to rebound significantly in May. Despite RKAB approvals reaching 90%, spot supply for high-grade saprolite remains tight. However, market expectations for easing supply have strengthened. Notably, the average grade of ore accepted by smelters has begun to trend downward. While the decline is not yet significant, some smelters have started blending low-grade ore to mitigate the pressure of high-grade shortages and surging costs. Current pricing follows either a "fixed price" or "HPM + $7–$10 premium" model. Furthermore, some smelters are implementing standardized benchmarks for pyrometallurgical ore (Cobalt 0.05%, Iron 20%, Chrome 1%), regardless of actual ore variations. Bon have shrunk to minimal levels as most are now covered by fixed premiums. Hydrometallurgical Ore: Limonite prices have trended downward, failing to follow the uptick in the new HPM. Demand is under pressure due to potential MHP production cuts caused by a sulfuric acid shortage in May. With relatively stable inventories, smelters continue to exert strong downward pressure on prices. 3. SMM Internal Estimates The new pricing formula has led to increased price divergence and amplified volatility, particularly influenced by higher associated cobalt content in certain ores. SMM calculations show that the new HPM for 1.2% grade limonite is approximately $47.82, significantly higher than current market assessments. The new HPM for 1.6% grade saprolite is $64.85; the inclusion of higher cobalt content in the new formula has markedly amplified price fluctuations. While actual market transaction prices currently remain above this benchmark, the gap is steadily narrowing. 4. Regulatory Quotas (RKAB) and Market Outlook According to the ESDM, RKAB approvals for 2026 have reached approximately 90%. SMM statistics indicate that the total approved quota for Indonesian nickel ore stands at roughly 230–240 million wmt. The final quota is widely expected to be finalized by the end of April. Due to the convergence of reduced RKAB expectations, resource uncertainty, and high-grade ore shortages, some smelters have increased trade dividends and premiums to secure supply. The market is closely monitoring Weda Bay Nickel (WBN) . Due to a severely depleted RKAB quota for 2026, WBN plans to enter a "maintenance and care" phase starting in May. The company is actively pursuing a quota increase to alleviate the ore shortage at the IWIP industrial park. During this period, its downstream NPI plants will consume existing strategic inventories to maintain operations. 5. Regulatory Revisions: PP 19/2025 On May 8, the Directorate General of Mineral and Coal held a public hearing on the revision of PP 19/2025 , seeking feedback on adjustments to mineral royalty rates. Nickel Ore: The revision proposes lowering the minimum HMA threshold from <$18,000/t to <$16,000/t, and the maximum threshold from ≥$31,000/t to ≥$26,000/t. The tax tiers would be refined from 5 to 6 levels, with rates ranging from 14% to 19%. Impact: Based on today’s Nickel HMA of $17,802, the applicable royalty rate would rise from 14% to 15% if the revision is implemented. Additional Provisions: A 2% independent levy is proposed for cobalt in nickel matte and non-nickel smelting products, while a 2.5% tax rate is proposed for alloy pig iron. The impact on mainstream NPI projects will depend on Indonesia’s final product classification criteria. Nickel Pig Iron " NPI Average Prices Rally Strongly; Market Enters High-Level Deadlock " The average price of SMM 10-12% NPI average price increased by RMB 30.5 per nickel unit week-on-week to RMB 1150.5 per nickel unit (ex-works, tax included), while the Indonesia NPI FOB index increased by USD 3.58 USD per nickel unit to an average of USD 146.78 per nickel unit. This week, the high-nickel pig iron market first declined and then rose. This week, favorable policies and exchange movements drove prices steadily higher, pushing the price center further up. However, by the end of the week, the market transitioned from a unilateral uptrend into a high-level deadlock. Upstream producers maintained a strong stance on pricing, with some anchoring their target at RMB 1,200/nickel unit and showing a high reluctance to sell. Conversely, downstream stainless steel mills showed weak acceptance of these high prices. Having completed their initial restocking, these mills saw a decline in procurement appetite, with the maximum acceptable price being limited. Additionally, a correction in the exchange market fueled "fear of heights" (market caution); despite active inquiries, actual transaction volumes were significantly lower than those seen before the holiday. The price gap between high and low-grade materials widened further, intensifying the structural divergence of supply. Looking ahead, while cost support remains, demand follow-through is insufficient. NPI prices are expected to remain in a high-level tug-of-war in the short term. Based on high-nickel pig iron cash costs calculated from nickel ore prices 25 days ago, smelter profit margins continued to recover this week, with many operations returning to profitability. On the raw material side, auxiliary material prices rose, while ore prices remained stable in the Philippines and saw a slight correction in Indonesia. Overall, the expansion of domestic smelter profits this week was primarily driven by the upward shift in NPI prices coupled with lower raw material costs. For next week, raw material prices are unlikely to see significant increases, and NPI prices are expected to remain at high levels, which should lead to further improvements in smelter profit margins. ​​​​​​​

Nickel prices continued to rise sharply this week, with the market narrative shifting from last week's "fluctuating at highs after policy materialization" to "full fermentation of substantive supply-side shocks." Indonesia's Weda Bay nickel mine announced a May production halt for maintenance due to exhausted RKAB quotas, Huayou Cobalt's subsidiary Huafei Nickel & Cobalt announced partial production line shutdowns from May 1 due to sulfur shortages, and the continued blockade of the Strait of Hormuz in the Middle East deepened the sulfur supply crisis. The three supply-side shocks combined to push nickel price centers sharply higher. The most-traded SHFE nickel contract broke through the 150,000 yuan/mt mark this week, while LME nickel briefly surpassed $19,500/mt intraday. Spot market, SMM #1 refined nickel averaged 150,000 yuan/mt this week, up 5,000 yuan/mt WoW. Spot premiums remained low as futures surged rapidly, with Jinchuan nickel premiums declining to 1,300 yuan/mt. Domestic mainstream electrodeposited nickel maintained significant discounts, further highlighting the structural feature of "strong futures, weak spot" in supply-demand fundamentals. On the macro front, US-Iran negotiations reached a complete impasse this week, with expectations of prolonged geopolitical risks rising. The two sides diverged sharply on the Strait of Hormuz issue: Trump claimed Iran was "on the verge of collapse and requesting the strait be opened," demanding Iran hand over all enriched uranium; Iran emphasized its "absolute control" over the strait and demanded transit fees from passing vessels. Fed Chairman nominee Warsh explicitly refused to commit to interest rate cuts at last week's hearing, and the market continued to digest this stance this week — CME Fed Watch showed a 99% probability of rates remaining unchanged in April and only about 3% probability of a cumulative 25bp cut by June, with monetary easing expectations virtually disappearing. Inventory, Shanghai Bonded Zone inventory was approximately 1,700 mt this week, flat WoW. China's social inventory was approximately 101,000 mt, with an inventory buildup of approximately 3,200 mt WoW. Looking ahead, although persistently high domestic inventory continued to pressure prices, Indonesia's Q2 triple shock of "ore tightening + sulfur supply disruption + MHP production cuts" is accelerating from expectations toward reality. After the Labour Day holiday, the most-traded SHFE nickel contract is expected to trade in the range of 145,000-155,000 yuan/mt.

African Rainbow Minerals is evaluating the restart of open-pit operations at its fully-owned Nkomati nickel mine in South Africa after securing a conditional off-take agreement with Sweden's Boliden AB. The mine, which was placed on care and maintenance in 2021 due to high costs and weak prices, became wholly owned by ARM after it acquired Nornickel's 50% stake in July 2025. Under the new agreement, which remains subject to board approval and responsible sourcing due diligence, Nkomati will supply nickel concentrate to Boliden's Harjavalta smelter in Finland, Europe's only large-scale nickel smelter. This potential restart business case is further bolstered by recent market trends, as nickel prices approach two-year highs driven by policy-related supply cuts in top producer Indonesia.

[SMM Stainless Steel Daily Review] SS Futures Hit New Stage High Again, Stainless Steel Spot Transactions Cooled Before Labour Day Holiday SMM, April 28: SS futures showed a strong upward momentum. Driven by the continued strength of SHFE nickel, SS futures rose further, breaking through the high since 2023 again, once reaching 15,670 yuan/mt. As of the morning close, the most-traded SS contract was quoted at 15,630 yuan/mt. Spot market, as SS futures successively broke stage highs, spot stainless steel prices stayed high. Although the Labour Day holiday was approaching, end-user downstream mostly held a cautious wait-and-see attitude, and overall transactions were relatively sluggish. The most-traded SS futures contract strengthened and probed higher. At 10:15 AM, SS2605 was quoted at 15,420 yuan/mt, up 45 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Spot premiums for 304/2B in Wuxi ranged from 0 to 200 yuan/mt. In the spot market, the average price of cold-rolled 201/2B coils in Wuxi rose by 50 yuan/mt; cold-rolled trimmed-edge 304/2B coils fell by 50 yuan/mt in Wuxi and 100 yuan/mt in Foshan; cold-rolled 316L/2B coils in Wuxi held stable; hot-rolled 316L/NO.1 coils in Wuxi held stable; cold-rolled 430/2B coils in both Wuxi and Foshan held stable. Currently, the stainless steel market saw spot prices hold up well, driven by the surge in futures, but end-user wait-and-see sentiment persisted. Actual transactions remained generally weak and were significantly influenced by futures changes, showing phased concentrated transaction patterns, with overall demand not fully matching the price gains. Futures, this week...

Based on SMM research, the week of April 20 to April 24, 2026, Indonesian stainless steel export prices followed a stable then surging trend. While quotations remained steady early in the week due to prevailing market caution, they collectively rose by USD30/mt by Friday (April 24). This increase was driven by rising nickel ore prices, which pushed NPI (Nickel Pig Iron) production costs higher, lifting FOB Indonesia 300-series prices. Notably, driven by rising global molybdenum costs, 316-series prices are now approaching the USD4,000/mt threshold. Image 1: Review of FOB Indonesia 304 Stainless Steel Prices in April Image 2: Review of FOB Indonesia 316 Stainless Steel Prices in April The upward momentum in overseas stainless steel prices stems from structural tightening at the raw material end. The official implementation of Indonesia’s new Nickel Ore Pricing Formula (HPM), coupled with the announced suspension of operations for maintenance at a major Indonesian nickel mine starting in May, has caused an abrupt tightening of ore supply. This supply crunch is propagating down the value chain, supporting firm NPI quotations and directly inflating the immediate steelmaking costs for mills. On the demand side, the Southeast Asian downstream market is currently in an inventory depletion phase. Upstream mills maintain a strong stance on pricing, pushing for further hikes toward the end of the week. Conversely, downstream buyers remain resistant to these high price levels, restricting procurement to hand-to-mouth replenishment. According to SMM research, local DDP 304 stainless steel cold-rolled coil (CRC) prices in Malaysia are currently ranging between RM 9.50 and RM 10.50/kg . The European market has witnessed a slight trend of defensive restocking. The core driver is the impending expiry of the current EU TRQ (Tariff Rate Quota) on June 30 . Starting July 1 , the updated policy is expected to see quotas slashed by nearly half and potential tax rates doubled. To hedge against high tariff risks in the second half of the year, European traders have recently concentrated purchases on cargoes arriving before the end of June, triggering a counter-seasonal inventory buildup. SMM reports that local DDP 304 CRC prices in Europe are hovering between €2,700 and €2,900/mt . Market activity in Taiwan, China remains relatively subdued, with buyers prioritizing the consumption of existing stocks and showing little appetite for restocking. Although upstream mills continue to raise April ex-factory prices, pushing local 304 CRC prices to a range of NT$ 69,300 to NT$ 74,000/mt, the wait-and-see sentiment among downstream buyers has overshadowed replenishment needs now that prices have hit historical highs, significantly limiting market liquidity. Overall transaction dynamics this week reflect a stark imbalance between the upstream and downstream sectors. Upstream mills, driven by cost pressures, remain firm in their pricing strategies, while downstream buyers maintain a cautious stance, sticking to essential-only purchasing. Given that May list prices have been released and mills remain resolute in their pricing, coupled with the pre-June 30 policy-driven hedging demand in Europe, overseas prices are expected to remain elevated in the short term. SMM anticipates that overseas stainless steel quotations will continue to fluctuate within a high-side range.

This week, stainless steel spot prices and production costs rose in tandem, while smelting profits at stainless steel mills remained basically stable. Taking 304 cold-rolled products as an example, based on same-day raw material prices, the full cost profit margin reached 1.79% this week; calculated on inventory raw material costs, the profit margin stood at 2.54%. Nickel raw material cost side, high-grade NPI prices rose sharply this week. Stimulated by news related to Indonesian nickel mines, SHFE nickel and SS futures rose in tandem, driving up high-grade NPI prices. Although downstream stainless steel mills still showed a tendency to push for lower prices, stainless steel mill profits have recovered somewhat, and coupled with the cost pressure of high-grade NPI itself, the upward trend in prices may continue. As of this Friday, mainstream 10-12% grade high-grade NPI rose 7 yuan per nickel unit, closing at 1,097 yuan/nickel unit. Stainless steel scrap market, stainless steel scrap prices edged up this week. The strengthening of SS futures drove up finished product prices, while the continued fermentation of news on Indonesian nickel mine production halts boosted market sentiment, pushing high-grade NPI prices higher, with stainless steel scrap rising in tandem due to the linkage effect. Supporting factors are clear; although its economic advantage over NPI has narrowed, it remains competitive, and steel mills have strong purchase willingness; the easing of tax invoice shortages has also improved the trading environment. The market presents a pattern of "futures-spot linkage and demand support" with no obvious bearish factors for now, and stainless steel scrap prices are expected to hold up well in the short term. As of this Friday, mainstream 304 off-cuts prices in the Shanghai region rose by 50 yuan/mt, with the latest quotation at around 10,400 yuan/mt. Chromium raw material cost side, high-carbon ferrochrome prices remained broadly stable this week. During the week, TISCO took the lead in announcing its May steel mill tender price for high-carbon ferrochrome, up 100 yuan/mt (50% metal content) MoM, which boosted confidence in the ferrochrome market and eased the downward trend in retail quotations. However, as May tender prices from other mainstream stainless steel mills have yet to be finalised, the market remains uncertain about whether follow-up price increases will materialise, and the stable trend in short-term high-carbon ferrochrome prices is unlikely to change. As of this Friday, mainstream high-carbon ferrochrome prices in Inner Mongolia were stable WoW, closing at 8,475 yuan/mt (50% metal content).

[SMM Stainless Steel Daily Review] Firm Raw Material Costs Combined with Low Inventory, Stainless Steel Prices Fluctuate at Highs SMM, April 24: SS futures surged higher. Driven by news related to Indonesian nickel ore, SHFE nickel and SS futures rallied sharply. SS broke through its highs since 2023 again, briefly touching 15,230 yuan/mt. As of the morning close, the most-traded SS contract was quoted at 15,160 yuan/mt. Spot market side, stainless steel spot prices rose in tandem, driven by the strengthening of SS futures. Although prices rose in the short term, downstream end-users had not fully accepted them due to a wait-and-see sentiment. However, low-priced cargoes were already hard to find in the market. In addition, stainless steel social inventory continued to decline, and traders faced relatively low inventory pressure. The most-traded SS contract strengthened and probed higher. At 10:15 AM, SS2605 was quoted at 15,165 yuan/mt, up 320 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Spot premiums for 304/2B in Wuxi were in the range of -145-55 yuan/mt. In the spot market, the average price of cold-rolled 201/2B coils in Wuxi remained flat; for cold-rolled trimmed-edge 304/2B coils, the average price in Wuxi rose by 50 yuan/mt, and the average price in Foshan rose by 50 yuan/mt; cold-rolled 316L/2B coils in Wuxi rose by 200 yuan/mt; hot-rolled 316L/NO.1 coils in Wuxi rose by 100 yuan/mt; cold-rolled 430/2B coils in both Wuxi and Foshan remained stable. Currently, the stainless steel market saw spot prices hold up well, driven by the surge in SS futures. However, downstream end-users' wait-and-see sentiment persisted, with actual transaction volumes remaining generally weak and influenced by futures changes...