LME nickel futures edged down just USD3 on June 2 to close at USD19,248/ton, firmly defending the USD19,200 threshold despite a minor pullback from a recent one-month high. Nickel is up USD186 this month and 15.6% year-to-date. LME inventories fell 1104 tons to 275,340 tons (-0.15% MTD), with Indonesian MHP output declines adding to supply tightness. While firm US labor data rekindled Fed inflation concerns, steady Chinese stainless steel demand and declining stockpiles offset seasonal supply increases from the Philippines, keeping nickel positioned for narrow-range stability.

LME nickel futures rebounded above US$19,200/ton on une 1, closing at US$19,251/to, a one-month high, on the back of consecutive weekly gains. The rally was driven by declining pure nickel inventories and fresh mining disruptions, including Zimbabwe's restriction on nickel exports, offsetting a stronger US dollar amid rising Middle East tensions. Spot prices rose US$172 to US$19,039/ton, Nickel increase US$2,605 or 15.6% year-to-date.

May high-grade NPI prices fell despite tighter costs, as nickel futures retreated, stainless margins weakened, and scrap regained its cost advantage. Indonesian policy and production-cut expectations built a floor, but weak downstream demand capped any rebound.

LME nickel futures closed at USD18,913/ton on May 22, gaining 2.3% on the week and snapping a two-week losing streak, supported by a stabilizing US dollar and Trump's persistent calls for Fed rate cuts. LME inventories dipped 600 tons to 279,072 tons, with May's average price of USD18,815 remaining above April levels. Near-term outlook stays uncertain, however, as record-low US consumer confidence and weak Chinese stainless steel demand during the late-May rainy season create headwinds. Market participants expect subdued and volatile trading ahead, though tight nickel ore supplies should provide a price floor.

Indonesian mills in Weda Bay Industrial Park cutting high-grade NPI production by 10–15% over coming months drove LME nickel futures to close at USD18,806/ton, with an intraday peak of USD19,165 and a price swing of USD745. Spot prices rose USD243 to USD18,609/ton. The rally came despite a stronger US dollar and Fed rate hike fears weighing on other base metals. LME inventories edged up 534 tons to 276,096 tons, while May's average price of USD18,854 already exceeds April's. Short-term volatility is expected as weak Chinese stainless steel demand and improving Philippine ore supplies cap further upside.

[SMM Nickel Flash] On May 18, futures continued to decline, and market pessimism spread. Upstream suppliers mostly maintained high offer prices, but actual transactions were scarce, with some softening in quoted prices. Downstream steel mills adopted a more cautious purchasing stance, mostly referencing steel scrap price ratios, with mainstream intended bids concentrated at 1120-1130 yuan/nickel unit, showing a clear divergence from upstream offers. Under the short-term downward trend, both upstream and downstream pricing sentiment remained cautious, further suppressing spot transaction activity.

After pushing to fresh highs in early May, Chinese Nickel Pig Iron prices have begun retreating as every pillar that supported the late-April surge — refined nickel, stainless margins, and scrap economics — starts to weaken simultaneously.

The Indonesian government reaffirmed plans to implement export duties and a windfall profit tax on low-processed nickel products, triggering a sharp rally in global metal markets. The policy aims to curb under-invoicing and smuggling while recouping state subsidies used to build the nation’s downstream industry. Following the announcement, SHFE nickel futures surged over 3.5% today, while LME nickel jumped to approximately $19,900/mt, a 2.1% daily gain. With the cost floor rising, Asian stainless steel futures have now gained over 10% since early April, reflecting a broader bullish trend across base metals.

[SMM Stainless Steel Daily Review] Stainless Steel Futures Surged and Spot Prices Remained Firm, Trading Sluggish as Labour Day Holiday Approached On April 29, SMM reported that SS futures fluctuated upward strongly. Driven by the continued strengthening of SHFE nickel, SS futures maintained a strong trend. As of the morning close, the most-traded SS contract was quoted at 15,505 yuan/mt. Spot market side, SS futures continued to fluctuate at highs, boosting stainless steel traders' confidence. Spot offers were generally at relatively high levels, with low-priced resources hard to find. Although the holiday was approaching and rapid price increases made downstream buyers cautious and wait-and-see, with most making just-in-time procurement, trading was slightly sluggish. However, supported by the strong performance of SS futures, spot prices were unlikely to pull back. The most-traded SS contract strengthened and tested higher levels. At 10:15 AM, SS2605 was quoted at 15,475 yuan/mt, up 55 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Spot premiums for 304/2B in Wuxi ranged from -5 to 195 yuan/mt. In the spot market, the average price of cold-rolled 201/2B coils in Wuxi remained flat; for cold-rolled trimmed-edge 304/2B coils, the average price in Wuxi rose 50 yuan/mt and in Foshan rose 125 yuan/mt; cold-rolled 316L/2B coils in Wuxi held steady; for hot-rolled 316L/NO.1 coils, Wuxi offers rose 50 yuan/mt; cold-rolled 430/2B coils in both Wuxi and Foshan held steady. Currently, the stainless steel market was driven higher by the surge in SS futures, with spot offers strengthening in tandem and rising to highs not seen since 2023. However, the short-term price increase was relatively rapid and had limited correlation with changes in stainless steel fundamentals, and end-user acceptance remained limited...

[SMM Stainless Steel Daily Review] SS Futures Hit New Stage High Again, Stainless Steel Spot Transactions Cooled Before Labour Day Holiday SMM, April 28: SS futures showed a strong upward momentum. Driven by the continued strength of SHFE nickel, SS futures rose further, breaking through the high since 2023 again, once reaching 15,670 yuan/mt. As of the morning close, the most-traded SS contract was quoted at 15,630 yuan/mt. Spot market, as SS futures successively broke stage highs, spot stainless steel prices stayed high. Although the Labour Day holiday was approaching, end-user downstream mostly held a cautious wait-and-see attitude, and overall transactions were relatively sluggish. The most-traded SS futures contract strengthened and probed higher. At 10:15 AM, SS2605 was quoted at 15,420 yuan/mt, up 45 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Spot premiums for 304/2B in Wuxi ranged from 0 to 200 yuan/mt. In the spot market, the average price of cold-rolled 201/2B coils in Wuxi rose by 50 yuan/mt; cold-rolled trimmed-edge 304/2B coils fell by 50 yuan/mt in Wuxi and 100 yuan/mt in Foshan; cold-rolled 316L/2B coils in Wuxi held stable; hot-rolled 316L/NO.1 coils in Wuxi held stable; cold-rolled 430/2B coils in both Wuxi and Foshan held stable. Currently, the stainless steel market saw spot prices hold up well, driven by the surge in futures, but end-user wait-and-see sentiment persisted. Actual transactions remained generally weak and were significantly influenced by futures changes, showing phased concentrated transaction patterns, with overall demand not fully matching the price gains. Futures, this week...