SMM Nickel, March 20: Macro and Market News: (1) The Party Committee of the People's Bank of China held an enlarged meeting on March 18, which stated that it would continue to effectively implement a moderately accommodative monetary policy, firmly safeguard the stable operation of financial markets such as equities, bonds, and foreign exchange, and advance legislative formulation and amendments including the People's Bank of China Law and the Financial Stability Law. (2) The interest rate futures market priced in only 5.5 basis points of US Fed interest rate cuts this year, and bets on rate hikes began to emerge. Spot Market: On March 20, the SMM price of #1 refined nickel rose by 3,000 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. In terms of spot premiums, the average price of Jinchuan #1 refined nickel was 6,550 yuan/mt, down 200 yuan/mt from the previous trading day, while the mainstream China electrodeposited nickel brands were quoted at -300-400 yuan/mt. Futures Market: The most-traded SHFE nickel contract (2605) staged a sharp rebound, closing the morning session at 134,780 yuan/mt, up 1.50. Yesterday, nickel prices once fell below the 130,000 yuan mark, as trades on expectations of a global economic recession triggered by escalating geopolitical conflict in the Middle East put the metals complex under pressure overall. Nickel prices then took the lead in rebounding sharply, recovering to around 135,000 yuan/mt in the morning session. Short term, sentiment from the macro perspective may continue to dominate the market, and nickel prices may maintain wide swings.

Downstream Purchasing Activity for Nickel Intermediate Products Increased, Tight Supply and Demand Drove Prices Higher

[SMM Daily Review: Low-Priced Sell-Offs Fueled Panic Sentiment, Triggering a Phased Decline in High-Grade NPI] March 20 News: SMM's upstream sentiment factor for high-grade NPI was 2.84, down 0.04 MoM, while the downstream sentiment factor for high-grade NPI was 1.63, up 0.04 MoM.

As of Thursday this week, the average SMM battery-grade nickel sulphate price edged down slightly WoW. Demand side, trading sentiment was weak in mid-month, and some producers made inquiries recently, but as downstream orders remained unclear, acceptance of high-priced nickel salt was weak; supply side, due to uncertainty in Indonesia's recent MHP supply, MHP payables moved higher, driving up raw material costs for some producers and correspondingly lifting their quotes. Looking ahead, with the month-end procurement period approaching, attention should be paid to support from the raw material side for nickel sulphate prices. Inventory, this week upstream nickel salt smelter inventory index held at 4.7 days, downstream precursor plant inventory index fell from 7.1 days to 6.8 days, and integrated enterprises' inventory index held at 6.8 days; in terms of buyer-seller strength, this week the upstream nickel salt smelters' Willingness to Sell Sentiment Factor held at 1.8, the downstream precursor plants' procurement sentiment factor fell from 2.7 to 2.6, and integrated enterprises' sentiment factor held at 2.4. (Historical data is available in the database.)

Raw material side, spot lithium carbonate prices fluctuated this week, cobalt sulphate prices remained temporarily stable, and nickel sulphate prices dropped slightly.

Current manufacturer expectations for this month and April remain cautious, with some companies having already lowered their April production forecasts.

This week, the second-life battery market showed clear structural divergence. On the cost side, although lithium carbonate prices saw a temporary uptick this week, they trended downward overall; nickel sulphate prices edged down slightly, while cobalt sulphate prices remained stable. The cost side was mainly affected by fluctuations in lithium carbonate prices. On the supply side, driven by terminal energy storage demand, inventories of new battery cells at battery cell manufacturers were critically low, and the supply of Grade A battery cells was heavily diverted, causing supply in the second-life battery market to remain tight. On the demand side, 280Ah and 314Ah energy storage battery cells were subject to concentrated procurement in the market, resulting in severe shortages and noticeably rising prices. Meanwhile, demand in the EV sector remained weak, inventory was relatively sufficient, and second-life power battery cell prices stayed stable.

On March 18, the SMM average price of battery-grade nickel sulphate remained unchanged.

[SMM Daily Review: Sharp Drop in Nickel Prices Dragged Down Market Confidence, High-Grade NPI Price Center Pulled Back] March 19 News: SMM's upstream sentiment factor for high-grade NPI was 2.88, up 0.07 MoM, and the downstream sentiment factor for high-grade NPI was 1.59, up 0.02 MoM.

SMM Nickel News, March 19: Macro and Market News: (1) The US Fed kept interest rates unchanged at 3.5%-3.75%, while Governor Milan believed rates should be cut by 25 basis points. The impact of developments in the Middle East on the US economy remained uncertain. The dot plot maintained expectations for one interest rate cut in each of the next two years, but the distribution turned more hawkish. Market bets on the US Fed's rate cuts for the full year were reduced from about 20 basis points to less than 11 basis points. (2) Powell believed interest rates were at the high end of the neutral range, or slightly restrictive, leaving policy in a favorable position, and said the current situation was not stagflation. This energy supply disruption was a one-off event. Regarding whether he would remain in office, Powell stressed that he would not leave before the investigation concluded, and might not leave even after it concluded. If no successor was confirmed, he would continue to serve as acting chair. Spot Market: On March 19, the SMM price of #1 refined nickel fell by 3,100 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. In terms of spot premiums, the average price of Jinchuan #1 refined nickel was 6,750 yuan/mt, up 200 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; mainstream electrodeposited nickel brands in China were quoted at -300-400 yuan/mt. Futures Market: The most-traded SHFE nickel contract (2605) plunged sharply during the session and closed the morning session at 131,760 yuan/mt, down 2.79%. Tensions in the Middle East remained elevated, and the escalating conflict between Iran and Israel triggered market concerns over rising energy prices, intensifying inflation, and economic slowdown. Safe-haven sentiment heated up. Combined with the US Fed keeping interest rates unchanged while raising inflation expectations, expectations for interest rate cuts were revised down, causing metal prices to fall sharply across the board. Pressure from the macro perspective may continue to dominate market sentiment, and nickel prices are expected to remain in the doldrums.