Gold is doing the opposite of what it should. The metal is falling for a reason most investors did not see coming. Wall Street's biggest banks have not changed their outlook. Here is why that matters.

The gold price is currently causing nervousness once again. Since the start of the war involving the USA and Israel against Iran, the precious metal has recorded a daily loss of 4% for the second time.

SMM News: As of March 20, 2026, the market price for Praseodymium-Neodymium (Pr-Nd) metal in China stabilized temporarily at 890,000–910,000 RMB/ton. This article utilizes the SMM Pr-Nd Terminal Demand Calculation Model to dissect the demand logic for 2026 across three core sectors—New Energy Vehicles (NEVs), Internal Combustion Engine (ICE) vehicles, and Wind Power—explaining the current supply-demand dilemma facing the NdFeB magnet and broader Pr-Nd markets.

“Gold’s status as a haven may now be tarnished in the eyes of some as the precious metal is falling in price even as war roils the Middle East and financial markets alike, and some may even be tempted to say that the third major bull run in the commodity since 1971 is now over,” says AJ Bell investment director Russ Mould.

After the Chinese New Year holiday, China’s aluminum market continued to see an inventory buildup, with social inventory rising लगातार and repeatedly hitting highs for recent years. However, as the traditional peak consumption season gradually got underway, downstream pickup enthusiasm rebounded, pressure from aluminum ingot backlogs eased significantly, and the pace of inventory buildup has already shown signs of slowing...

[SMM Analysis]Analysis of Import and Export Data for Unwrought Aluminum Alloy, January-February 2026

Nickel Ore " Sluggish RKAB Approvals Drive Potential for Ore Price Hikes" Indonesian domestic nickel ore prices have risen significantly increase this week. For the first half of March, the Indonesian Nickel Ore Benchmark Price (HPM) was set at $17.329/dmt, an increase of 1.32%. However, according to SMM data, average premiums has increased for 1.4%, 1.5%, and 1.6% grade laterite nickel ore were reported at $35, $39, and $39.5/wmt, respectively, with 1.6% grade reaching a delivered price of $65.6–$74.6/wmt. This strengthening of premiums reflects both the release of restocking demand from smelters and pessimistic expectations regarding RKAB quota reductions. Simultaneously, the delivery price for 1.2% grade limonite has edged up to $24–$26/wmt. Pyrometallurgical Ore: From a supply and demand perspective, Sulawesi is transitioning into the dry season; Konawe has reached optimal production levels, while Morowali is recovering from previous floods. However, Halmahera continues to be hampered by thunderstorms, resulting in high moisture content and dragging down mining efficiency. The market is facing a clear trend of declining ore grades. While some NPI smelters have begun accepting grades of 1.45% or lower, the supply of high-grade saprolite remains tight. As of mid-March, the ESDM has approved approximately 100 million tons of RKAB quotas. The remaining 160 to 170 million tons are expected to be processed by the end of March. However, due to the Eid al-Fitr (Lebaran) holidays (March 18–24), approval progress is expected to lag, exacerbating short-term supply tightness. Faced with resource uncertainty, some smelters have increased trade bonuses to secure raw materials. Transactions for low-grade saprolite are emerging at fixed prices lower than high-grade ores. Conversely, Limonite prices remain low due to a tailings dam landslide at a major MHP project, which has forced production lines to operate at low loads, hindering demand recovery. However, Limonite prices are expected to eventually follow Saprolite upward due to new project stockpiling and external island demand. Hydrometallurgical Ore Although the spot supply of hydrometallurgical ore is relatively sufficient, a tailings dam landslide at an MHP project in a certain industrial park has forced related production lines to operate at low loads, leading to a temporary weakness in demand. However, given the concerns over RKAB approval uncertainty, the stockpiling needs of newly commissioned projects, and the growing demand from outer islands, hydrometallurgical ore prices are expected to follow the trend of pyrometallurgical ore and remain elevated. On March 3, 2026, Tri Winarno, Director General of Mineral and Coal, clarified that rumors of a "25%–30% universal increase in RKAB quotas" are false. Quota supplements will be based on individualized assessments of production capacity and compliance, with the approval process not expected to start until the second half of 2026. Market Outlook: Due to the overall delay in RKAB approvals, nickel ore prices in April are expected to remain resilient with a strong "easy to rise, hard to fall" trend. Nickel Pig Iron "NPI Prices See Periodic Retracement as Tug-of-War Intensifies Between Cost Support and Downstream Pressure​​​​​​​" The average price of SMM 10-12% NPI average price rose by RMB 0.3 per nickel unit week-on-week to RMB 1090.2 per nickel unit (ex-works, tax included), while the Indonesia NPI FOB index decreased by USD 0.65 per nickel unit to an average of USD 138.28 per nickel unit. This week, following consecutive price drops in stainless steel finished products and LME/SHFE nickel, the High-Grade NPI market experienced panic selling and low-price liquidation, entering a phase of periodic decline. From the supply side, With ore prices remaining elevated, smelter production costs continue to rise. However, triggered by the sharp decline in futures markets, some traders began offloading arbitrage stocks at low prices, leading to a general softening of upstream quotes.From the demand side, Weighed down by falling stainless steel prices and the influx of low-priced spot goods, most steel mills have lowered their bid intentions, exerting downward pressure on NPI prices. Overall, while cost support for smelters remains, downstream suppression is evident. The combination of futures-driven market sentiment and loosening upstream quotes has led to a periodic retracement in High-Grade NPI Overall outlook, market transactions will remain under pressure in the short term as the cost-tug-of-war between upstream and downstream continues. However, the downward room for NPI prices is expected to be limited.

According to data from the General Administration of Customs, China exported 12,052.46 mt of copper enamelled wire in January 2026, down 1.19% YoY; exports were 10,239.85 mt in February, up 39.64% YoY; cumulative exports in January-February 2026 reached 22,292.31 mt, up 14.14% YoY on a cumulative basis. (HS code 85441100)

Delaware Depository, a COMEX/NYMEX Depository for the storage and delivery of gold, gold (enhanced delivery), silver, platinum, and palladium deliverable against the Exchange’s respective futures contracts, will implement new rates in connection with Storage of Gold, Gold (Enhanced Delivery), and Silver at its facilities located in Delaware. The new rates reflect the maximum amounts of fees that can be charged and will be effective July 1, 2026.

National Bureau of Statistics (NBS): In January-February, the national economy got off to a strong start and achieved a good opening. Value-added industrial output of enterprises above designated size rose 6.3% YoY, total retail sales of consumer goods increased 2.8%, and real estate development investment fell 11.1% YoY.