[SMM Aluminum Price Weekly Review: Domestic and International Aluminum Prices Weakened in Tandem, Weak Macro Sentiment Dragged Down Pre-Holiday Market]

As the core of the global magnet supply chain, China's export data reflects geopolitical shifts. From 2022 to 2025, export volumes tracked the move from decoupling to export controls. Now in 2026, changing geopolitics is driving a new export cycle.

It has become a consensus that domestic demand for new energy vehicles will be under periodic pressure in 2026. However, the industry has not lost its growth momentum but is shifting from past expansion driven by pricing and policy to a growth model supported by products, structural optimization, and markets outside China. At the same time, the rise on the cost side is squeezing profit margins, making the issue of "growing but not profiting" increasingly visible.

Starting from the panic low of $4,099 on March 23, the gold price has slowly but steadily worked its way upward over the past four weeks. Even though momentum is gradually fading and geopolitical tensions continue to act as a disruptive factor, the persistence of the recovery movement remains remarkable. Higher price targets in the range between $4,900 and $5,100 remain active and could be reached soon.

Wells Fargo Securities' bull-case forecast for gold suggests that after last month's pullback in gold prices, gold prices could surge remarkably to $8,000 per ounce . Before the US-Iran war broke out on February 28 this year, gold had been one of the hottest market momentum plays of the year. However, after the war began, gold prices declined. In March, gold futures prices fell nearly 11%, marking the largest single-month decline since June 2013. But the Wall Street investment bank expects the "debasement trade" — in which central banks around the world sell fiat currencies such as the US dollar in favor of more neutral safe-haven assets — could push the precious metal to new heights. Wells Fargo Securities' chief equity strategist Ohsung Kwon wrote: "We are in the fourth currency debasement cycle, which started in 2022." Kwon added: "After the recent pullback in gold prices, prices are now closer to our model's fair value of $4,500 per ounce. Looking at the three drivers, all of them suggest that currency debasement will deepen further from current levels." The strategist said that four out of five economic scenarios point to further currency debasement, and gold prices could rise to $8,000 per ounce by 2027 as a result . Spot gold and gold futures were last trading near $4,800 per ounce, implying more than 66% upside room . Conversely, Kwon's bear-case forecast shows gold prices falling to $4,000 per ounce by the end of 2027, a decline of about 17% from current levels. Kwon uses the M2/gold ratio — M2 money supply divided by the gold price per ounce — to identify the current cycle. The analyst said the ratio shows that the latest debasement cycle began in 2022, when Russia launched its military operation against Ukraine and the US entered a rate-hiking cycle, prompting central banks worldwide to ramp up gold purchases. Previous currency debasement cycles for gold occurred during: the Great Depression; the "Nixon Shock" — when then-President Richard Nixon ended the convertibility of the US dollar into gold — and the subsequent stagflation era; the War on Terror in the early 2000s; and the subprime mortgage crisis. Kwon added that currency debasement cycles last an average of 8.5 years, and the current cycle, at 3.5 years in, has not yet reached its halfway point.

The gold price reached a four-week high on Wednesday morning before giving up those gains and falling back to a level just above $4,800.

According to preliminary statistics from the People's Bank of China, the cumulative increase in aggregate social financing in Q1 2026 was 14.83 trillion yuan, down 354.5 billion yuan YoY. At the end of March, the broad money (M2) balance stood at 353.86 trillion yuan, up 8.5% YoY. RMB loans increased by 8.6 trillion yuan in Q1.

SMM Nickel News, April 14: Macro and Market News: (1) Data released by the General Administration of Customs on April 14 showed that China's total goods trade import and export value in Q1 2026 reached 11.84 trillion yuan, exceeding 11 trillion yuan for the first time in the same period historically, with the YoY growth rate maintaining double-digit growth at 15%. (2) According to preliminary statistics from the People's Bank of China, the cumulative increase in aggregate social financing in Q1 2026 was 14.83 trillion yuan, 354.5 billion yuan less than the same period last year. At the end of March, the broad money (M2) balance stood at 353.86 trillion yuan, up 8.5% YoY. RMB loans increased by 8.6 trillion yuan in Q1. Spot Market: On April 14, SMM #1 refined nickel prices rose by 3,900 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Spot premiums: Jinchuan #1 refined nickel averaged 2,900 yuan/mt, down 450 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; domestic mainstream brand electrodeposited nickel ranged from -500 to 600 yuan/mt. Futures Market: The most-traded SHFE nickel 2605 contract surged significantly today, rising over 3% at one point during the morning session, and closed the morning session at 137,810 yuan/mt, up 2.67%. Indonesia's Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (ESDM) officially confirmed that the revised nickel ore benchmark price (HPM) calculation formula will take effect from April 15, 2026. This is expected to significantly raise the floor support for nickel prices, driving a sharp rally in nickel prices. In the short term, nickel prices are expected to hold up well on sentiment following the release of the new pricing formula. Going forward, attention should be paid to the actual extent of cost increases after the implementation of Indonesia's new HPM formula.

Futures: Overnight, LME lead opened at $1,919/mt, fluctuated downward to a low of $1,913/mt during the Asian session; it rebounded during the European session, reaching a high of $1,931/mt near the close, and finally settled at $1,928/mt, down 0.13%. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE lead 2605 contract opened at 16,600 yuan/mt, fluctuated downward to a low of 16,545 yuan/mt after the opening, then rebounded as bears reduced positions, finally settling at a high of 16,610 yuan/mt, up 0.24%. On the macro front: On Monday, Trump said Iran wanted to reach a deal, after the US responded to the collapse of weekend peace talks by blockading Iranian ports. US Fed's Goolsbee: if oil prices stay at $90 per barrel for several consecutive months, it will start to pass through to other prices. Von der Leyen: the European Commission will unveil an energy price measures proposal on April 22 and plans to propose lower energy taxes in May. OPEC crude oil production in March fell by 7.88 million barrels per day to 20.79 million barrels per day, the largest single-month decline since data became available in the 1980s. Trump threatened to impose additional tariffs if China supplied weapons to Iran. China's Ministry of Foreign Affairs: there are no winners in a tariff war. The People's Bank of China: the outstanding aggregate social financing stood at 456.46 trillion yuan at the end of March, up 7.9% YoY. At the end of March, broad money (M2) balance was 353.86 trillion yuan, up 8.5% YoY. : SHFE lead's decline widened compared to last Friday. Some suppliers held prices firm while shipping, raising quoted premiums. Cargoes of primary lead self-picked up from production sites also saw narrowed discounts. Mainstream production areas quoted at discounts of 30 yuan/mt to premiums of 50 yuan/mt against SMM #1 lead on an ex-factory basis, with a few regions quoting at premiums of 100 yuan/mt. Secondary lead side, smelters held back from selling at low prices, and discounted cargoes decreased notably. Secondary refined lead was quoted at around parity against SMM #1 lead average price on an ex-factory basis, with some quoted at premiums of 25-75 yuan/mt. Downstream enterprises showed relatively improved purchasing enthusiasm, with more inquiries. Some purchased on demand at lower prices, and spot market transactions improved regionally. Inventory: on April 13, LME lead inventory decreased by 900 mt to 277,325 mt; SMM lead ingot social inventory across five regions edged up. Lead Price Forecast for Today: In April, the lead-acid battery market entered the traditional consumption off-season, with some medium and large enterprises announcing production cut plans, weakening procurement demand for lead ingots. Meanwhile, this week entered the delivery week, and lead ingot social warehouse inventory increased WoW; coupled with continued inflows of imported lead ingots into China in April, market circulating supply was ample, which was bearish for lead prices. Data Source Statement: Data other than public information is SMM processed data based on public information, market communication, and SMM's internal database model, for reference only and does not constitute decision-making advice.

Futures: Overnight, LME lead opened at $1,996.5/mt, touched a high of $1,998.5/mt during the Asian session before moving downward; during the European session, it first rose then fell, with a late-session dive to a low of $1,970/mt, ultimately closing at $1,984/mt, down 0.53%. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE lead 2604 contract opened at 16,700 yuan/mt, fluctuated upward to a high of 16,765 yuan/mt in early trading before weakening, touched a low of 16,670 yuan/mt in late trading, and ultimately closed at 16,705 yuan/mt, up 0.03%. On the macro front: Last Friday, the market awaited the results of US-Iran negotiations, and Israel had sought to negotiate with Lebanon, which brought hope for the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. Trump said the US would not allow Iran to make money by selling oil. An Iranian oil ministry official said the damaged refineries were expected to restore at least 70% of their previous capacity within one to two months. Li Qiang chaired a symposium on the economic situation with experts and entrepreneurs. The second batch of 62.5 billion yuan in ultra-long-term special government bonds this year to support trade-in policies for consumer goods was recently disbursed. NBS: CPI rose 1.0% YoY in March, and PPI turned from a YoY decline to an increase. Shanghai Stock Exchange: the price change limit for risk-warning stocks on the main board was adjusted from 5% to 10%. : In the Shanghai market, Hongli lead was quoted at 16,700-16,800 yuan/mt, quoted at premiums of 0-50 yuan/mt against the SHFE lead 2605 contract. Last Friday, SHFE lead continued to fluctuate downward, and due to limited circulating cargoes in the Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Shanghai market, suppliers held prices firm and shipped at premiums. Meanwhile, quotations for cargoes self-picked up from primary lead smelters were chaotic, with large price spreads between high and low prices in north China, while south China generally shipped at discounts. Mainstream production areas quoted at discounts of 60 yuan/mt to premiums of 50 yuan/mt against SMM #1 lead ex-works. Secondary lead side, smelters shipped following the market, with secondary refined lead quoted at discounts of 50-0 yuan/mt against SMM #1 lead average price ex-works, among which tax-exclusive cargoes saw more shipments than tax-inclusive ones. In addition, downstream enterprises showed strong wait-and-see sentiment with few inquiries, and some made just-in-time procurement. The spot market showed no signs of improvement in transactions for the time being. Inventory: On April 10, LME lead inventory decreased by 550 mt to 278,225 mt. As of April 9, SMM five-region lead ingot social inventory pulled back slightly. Lead price forecast for today: Weakening lead consumption in China and inflows of imported lead became the main factors dragging down lead prices. As SHFE lead enters the delivery week, suppliers are transferring inventory and shipping to delivery warehouses, converting it into visible inventory, and lead prices may come under pressure and weaken. At the same time, we need to monitor whether secondary lead enterprises fulfill their maintenance plans. If production cuts proceed as scheduled, lead prices may have the possibility of bottoming out and rebounding. Data Source Disclaimer: Data other than public information is derived from public information, market communication, and SMM's internal database models, processed by SMM for reference only and does not constitute decision-making advice.