The iron ore market is currently locked in a supply-heavy, demand-weak stalemate. While fundamental pressure is pushing for lower prices, strong resistance from high-cost producers is creating a floor, suggesting a range-bound, sideways treading market for the week ahead. Here’s a breakdown of the key factors: Supply: Global Market Remains Loose Arrivals Surge: This week, iron ore arrivals on China port reached 29.33 million tons, a notable 6% increase both week-on-week and year-on-year. Global shipments to China are arriving steadily and in significant volumes. Persistent Inventory: Port inventories continue to be a significant drag. SMM data places 35-port stocks at ~148 million tons, while more source reports up to 170 million tons. Despite high volumes, there is little to no progress on destocking. Demand: Downstream Weakening, Mills Squeezed External Competition: Downstream steel demand continues to soften. The China domestic market is facing further pressure from low-priced steel billet imports from Indonesia, which are grabbing market share. Profit Squeeze: Steel mills are caught in a vise. Upstream, coal and coke prices remain strong and resilient, while downstream demand is absent, continuously eroding steelmaking profits. Production Cuts Expected: Market sentiment is overwhelmingly pessimistic regarding near-term demand. We anticipate both steel mill purchase intent and molten iron production to move lower in tandem. Spot traders report extreme difficulty in securing profitable transactions. News & Negotiations: Stalled Talks & Tangled Factors The coal and coke sectors continue to trended upward sentiment from breaking news, supporting strong price expectations. Meanwhile, the outcomes of the recent closed-door meeting between major steel mills and traders are split between two major market narratives. Price Floor: Resistance from High-Cost Producers Crucially, the current iron ore price has corrected to a very sensitive level—effectively the cost line for many high-cost mines and a significant psychological support point for traders. Both groups are now actively resisting any further price declines.

JFE Steel commenced operations of its new electric furnace at the Chiba District of East Japan Works. The 15-billion-yen facility is designed to significantly increase scrap metal utilization in stainless steel production, replacing blast furnace molten iron. The upgrade expands JFE’s scrap melting capacity sixfold to 300,000 tons per year, which is expected to slash annual greenhouse gas emissions by approximately 450,000 tons. This project represents a pivotal step in JFE Steel's roadmap toward achieving carbon neutrality by 2030 through innovative, low-carbon manufacturing processes.

【SMM Steel】Hyundai Steel has commenced construction of a pilot facility for direct reduced iron (DRI) production at its Dangjin Steelworks in South Chungcheong Province. DRI is a form of iron produced in a solid state without undergoing the traditional iron ore melting process. The pilot plant, designed with a production capacity of 30 kilograms of molten iron per hour, will serve as a testing ground for various DRI manufacturing techniques. Hyundai Steel plans to begin operating the facility next year to validate production processes and gather operational data. The experience and technical knowledge gained from this pilot project will be applied to the development and operation of the company's planned steel mill in Louisiana, United States.

【SMM Steel】POSCO announced on December 14 that its No. 3 FINEX plant has completed maintenance and resumed production. The restart, originally scheduled for September this year, was delayed due to replacement of aging facilities. The plant experienced explosions and fires on November 10 and 24 last year, with damage contained within hours but causing equipment burn-out. POSCO immediately initiated repairs including redesign of old facilities and preparation of materials and equipment. The plant, built in 2014, has annual capacity of 2 million tons of molten iron, representing approximately 10% of POSCO's total capacity. FINEX is POSCO's proprietary technology enabling direct use of iron ore fines and bituminous coal to produce molten iron without preprocessing into sinter or coke.

As of November, the SGX iron ore December futures price rebounded after a brief decline at the beginning of the month. The fluctuation in iron ore prices was mainly due to unmet market expectations regarding the reduction in hot metal output, coupled with a slight recent improvement in the fundamental supply-demand relationship.

Cold rolling capacity increased by 60% over the past decade. From 2015 to 2020, cold rolling capacity grew steadily and rapidly, with an average annual growth rate of 9.7%, peaking at around 11% in 2020. Starting in 2021, the Implementation Measures for Capacity Replacement in the Steel Industry promoted an increase in the cold rolling capacity utilization rate, leading to a significant rise in cold rolling production, while the growth rate of cold rolling capacity slowed down, with the average annual growth rate from 2021 to 2024 slowing to 2.9%.