[Oxide downtrend drags metals lower, medium-heavy rare earths firm but transactions stagnant] Last week, nearing the weekend, downstream enterprises’ inquiry activity was low; some traders slightly lowered their quotes, but most factories held firm offers, resulting in few actual transactions; on the medium-heavy rare earth front, upstream supply was tight, market quotes remained firm, but metal plants’ purchase willingness was low.

[7.2 Morning Meeting Minutes] Iran claims the Strait of Hormuz will not reopen under US pressure; meanwhile, according to foreign media reports, Iran has secretly ordered the Houthis to blockade the Bab el-Mandeb Strait if the US attacks power facilities. The most-traded SHFE nickel 2609 contract plunged sharply in early trading, closing the morning session at 129,450 yuan/mt, down 1.14%. Bullish macro, policy, and cost-side factors, combined with strengthening technicals, give nickel prices rebound momentum, but weak demand and high inventories continue to cap the upside room. In the short term, the most-traded SHFE nickel contract is expected to trade in the range of 127,000-133,000 yuan/mt.

[SMM Cast Aluminum Alloy Morning Comment: Aluminum Alloy Futures Drift Higher, Spot Market Stable in Narrow Range Amid Tug-of-War Between Sellers and Buyers] Last Friday night, the aluminum alloy 2609 contract drifted higher overall in the night session, closing at 23,175 yuan/mt, up 150 yuan/mt from the previous settlement price, a gain of 0.65%.

SMM Morning Meeting Summary: Last Friday night, LME copper opened at $13,413/mt, dipped to an early low of $13,382/mt, then the center of copper prices drifted higher, climbing to $13,533/mt near the close, and finally settled at $13,528/mt, down 0.11%. Trading volume reached 19,600 lots, and open interest stood at 245,000 lots, an increase of 3,041 lots from the previous trading day, indicating bearish position-building. Last Friday night, the most-traded SHFE copper 2609 contract opened at 103,100 yuan/mt, dipped to 103,000 yuan/mt early in the session, then drifted higher to hit a high of 103,990 yuan/mt near the close, finally closing at 103,880 yuan/mt, up 0.15%. Trading volume was 31,000 lots, and open interest was 184,000 lots, up 3,839 lots from the previous trading day, reflecting bullish position additions.

SMM, July 20: Last Friday night, LME copper opened at $13,413/mt, fell to a low of $13,382/mt early in the session, then the price center drifted higher, rising to $13,533/mt near the end, and finally settled at $13,528/mt, down 0.11%. Trading volume reached 19,600 lots, and open interest reached 245,000 lots, up 3,041 lots from the previous trading day, indicating bears added to their positions. Last Friday night, the most-traded SHFE copper 2609 contract opened at 103,100 yuan/mt, dipped to 103,000 yuan/mt early on, then copper prices drifted higher, touching a high of 103,990 yuan/mt near the end, and finally settled at 103,880 yuan/mt, up 0.15%. Trading volume reached 31,000 lots, and open interest reached 184,000 lots, up 3,839 lots from the previous trading day, indicating bulls added to their positions. On the macro front, Iran ceased implementing the Iran-US memorandum of understanding, and Trump responded that he "doesn't care at all." Iran then warned that if US forces continued their operations, it would shift to a full-scale offensive, and had already used drones and missiles to attack US military targets in Kuwait, Bahrain, and Jordan. The US military confirmed two soldiers dead and one missing. Facing escalating conflict, the US accelerated the deployment of additional fighter jets to the Middle East and warned Gulf states, while Iran declared that shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz had dropped to zero, and threatened to target Gulf facilities, including airports in Dubai and Abu Dhabi. Escalating tensions in the Middle East weighed on copper prices. On the fundamentals side, the supply side saw persistently tight availability of spot cargoes, with inventories at lows for the year, maintaining an overall tight situation. On the demand side, the market was in the off-season for consumption, downstream procurement was sluggish, and overall performance was weak. Overall, copper prices are expected to drift higher today.

According to a report by Mining.com citing Bloomberg, NGEx Minerals has expanded the high-grade Jupiter zone at its Lunahuasi copper-gold-silver project in northern Argentina, while the Saturn zone has also expanded in scale. Drillhole DPDH077 in the Jupiter zone intersected 10 m at a depth of 89 m, grading 0.88% copper, 3.14 g/mt gold and 12.2 g/mt silver, including a 7.6 m interval grading 18.84% copper, 5.54 g/mt gold and 336.7 g/mt silver. Company CEO Wojtek Wodzicki said, "The results from hole DPDH077 show that the Jupiter zone cannot be overlooked; this zone was the first orebody intersected in the Lunahuasi discovery hole." Although the number of drillholes in Jupiter is less than in the Saturn and Mars targets, the mineralization intersected over an area of 400 m by 500 m at Jupiter indicates the potential of this main zone, Wodzicki added. Recent sample assay results once again demonstrate the strength of Lunahuasi as one of the highest-grade new copper-gold-silver discoveries in the world. Drilling is continuing to expand and connect zones to increase resource potential. The mineralization intersected at Jupiter demonstrates the significant potential of this zone, and it will be a priority target for the Phase 5 plan. The company has not specified when Phase 5 will begin. In the Saturn zone, drillhole DPDH069 intersected 13 m at a depth of 437 m, grading 1.07% copper, 1.31 g/mt gold and 37.6 g/mt silver. Hole DPDH072 intersected 34 m at a depth of 193 m, grading 1.43% copper, 1.8 g/mt gold and 40.2 g/mt silver, including a 6 m interval grading 3.75% copper, 4.82 g/mt gold and 93.1 g/mt silver. This intersection may indicate the presence of a new zone to the east of Saturn, NGEx said. Saturn may be a large, structurally controlled disseminated and stockwork orebody cut by high- to extremely high-grade veins. These results are from the Phase 4 drilling program of the Lunahuasi project, comprising 32 drillholes for a total of 27,318 m. Lunahuasi is located approximately 1,300 km northwest of Buenos Aires.

[SMM Morning Meeting Minutes: Bulls Exit, LME Zinc Drifts Lower] Last Friday, LME zinc recorded a bearish candlestick with a long lower shadow, the 60-day moving average below provided support, and the MACD turned into a bearish candlestick. Last Friday, the US dollar strengthened, LME zinc bulls exited, and it was overall in the doldrums. Subsequently......

In H1 this year, Anhui's vehicle exports surpassed one million units, five months earlier than last year," said Jiang Kaiyuan, deputy director of Hefei Customs, recently. It is reported that last year, Anhui province became the first province in China to exceed one million units in annual vehicle exports; in just six months this year, the province's vehicle exports reached 1.006 million units, up 1.2x YoY. During the same period, China's vehicle exports reached 5.096 million units, up 65.3% YoY, exceeding 5 million units for the first time in a half-year period.

SMM July 17 News: This week, secondary refined lead EXW transaction prices were mainly at a discount to the SMM #1 lead average price. Smelters held back from selling due to losses, and price fluctuations during the week caused the discount/premium range to fluctuate between a discount of 50 yuan/mt and a premium of 30 yuan/mt. Industry losses widened first and then narrowed. As of July 17, 2026, the theoretical comprehensive profit/loss for secondary lead enterprises stood at -317 yuan/mt for large-scale producers and -497 yuan/mt for small and medium-scale producers. Next week, expectations for production cuts in secondary lead will support lead prices, and premiums/discounts may return to parity territory. However, the battery off-season combined with high scrap battery costs will make it difficult for losses to improve.

Huahong Technology’s semi-annual results forecast disclosed on the evening of July 13 shows that attributable net profit in H1 2026 is expected to be 320 million yuan to 360 million yuan, up 301.84%–352.08% YoY. As for the reasons for the performance change, Huahong Technology said: In H1 2026, driven by industry policies and improved downstream demand, prices of major rare earth products in China climbed steadily. The company’s rare earth comprehensive utilization segment seized market opportunities, fully leveraged its comprehensive advantages in capacity scale, cost control and process technology, and continuously optimized its supply, production and sales coordination and inventory management strategies, effectively driving the full release of the segment’s profitability. The company continued to deepen its rare earth industry chain layout, steadily expanding its downstream rare earth permanent magnet materials business. Driven by steady demand from end-use sectors such as NEVs, wind power and industrial automation, the segment’s business scale kept expanding, its revenue and product mix continued to improve and it became an important supplement to performance growth. A review of SMM’s Pr-Nd oxide price trend in H1 shows that the Pr-Nd oxide price stood at 609,000 yuan/mt at the start of the year, hit its H1 high of 890,000 yuan/mt by late February, a cumulative gain of up to 46.7% from the start of the year. The key driver was the supply side: spot Pr-Nd oxide supply remained tight, futures surged sharply, suppliers held back from selling amid strong bullish sentiment, and pre-holiday stockpiling purchases by metal companies pushed prices up rapidly. At the same time, supply disruptions from Myanmar ore, domestic separation plants’ production resumptions falling short of expectations and market sentiment created a combined effect of “undersupply + bullish hold-back.” From March to April, however, bearish supply-side news combined with weak demand from traditional end-use sectors pulled Pr-Nd oxide prices back quickly to around 700,000 yuan/mt. Yet the rise in China Northern Rare Earth’s concentrate prices in April, supply support from production suspensions at separation plants and export orders released under the export control extension window together drove prices to rebound slightly. From May, downstream sectors gradually entered the off-season and purchases became more cautious. From late June, the formal implementation of the Mineral Resources Law Implementation Regulations, which list rare earths as strategic minerals, and production cuts by scrap recycling enterprises due to tax invoice issues boosted Pr-Nd oxide prices again, which rebounded to 742,500 yuan/mt on June 30. Huahong Technology announced on June 30 that its controlling shareholder Jiangsu Huahong Industrial Group Co., Ltd., which holds a 32.01% stake, plans to reduce its holdings by no more than 15.0102 million shares (1.99% of total equity) through centralized bidding and block trading within three months after 15 trading days; Director and senior executive Zhu Dayong, who holds a 0.19% stake, plans to reduce his holdings by no more than 365,000 shares (0.05% of total equity) through centralized bidding or block trading within three months after 15 trading days; Director and senior executive Liu Weihua, who holds a 1.52% stake, plans to reduce his holdings by no more than 2.8 million shares (0.37% of total equity) through centralized bidding or block trading within three months after 15 trading days. Huahong Technology previously released its 2025 annual performance report, showing that in 2025, the company achieved operating revenue of RMB7.835 billion, up 40.51% YoY, reaching a three-year high. After posting losses for two consecutive years, the company successfully returned to profitability, with net profit attributable to shareholders of the parent company reaching RMB204 million, up 157.46% YoY. 1. The rare earth segment seized the industry opportunity, acting as the "ballast stone" and "engine" for the turnaround. In 2025, the global rare earth market experienced a major shift in the supply-demand pattern. Driven by surging downstream demand from sectors such as new energy and robotics, combined with rigid supply-side constraints, rare earth product prices continued to rise, with the cumulative annual price increase for core products like Pr-Nd oxide exceeding 35%. The company's Rare Earth Resource Comprehensive Utilization Division keenly captured this industry opportunity, made accurate assessments, and acted accordingly: the company kept pace with the market, optimized procurement and sales strategies, and maximized product value during the price upcycle. Technological transformation yielded results and capacity was released: the previously completed technological transformation and capacity expansion projects at Xintai Technology and Jiangxi Wanhong reached full production, with annual capacity for rare earth oxides stabilizing at 12,000 mt, significantly releasing economies of scale. The company tapped internal potential to reduce costs and enhance efficiency: by optimizing process flows, production costs were strictly controlled and recovery rates were improved. During the reporting period, the company's rare earth resource comprehensive utilization business recorded strong production and sales performance with rising volumes and prices, contributing core profits to the company. 2. All business segments collaborated to build a diversified support structure. While the rare earth resource comprehensive utilization segment led the way, other segments also achieved strong operating results, creating a favorable situation of "blossoming in multiple areas and developing in synergy": Rare Earth Magnetic Materials Segment achieved "dual improvement in volume and quality," with production capacity steadily released across various production sites, providing strong support for market expansion and order fulfillment. High-performance magnetic material products were successfully introduced into the supply chain systems of multiple first-tier NEV automakers, with order scale continuing to expand and client quality and business mix continuously optimized. Construction of the key Baotou production site is progressing in an orderly manner and is planned to enter trial production in Q2 2026, laying a critical foundation for doubling magnetic material capacity. Elevator Parts Segment: The traditional business seized the policy dividends from the "program of large-scale equipment upgrades and consumer goods trade-ins," rapidly responding to domestic demand for elevator installation and retrofitting. Through refined production scheduling and efficiency gains, total annual production grew by over 20% YoY. The segment steadily expanded its second growth curve, with customer acquisition and product development activities for emerging businesses such as automotive electronics and energy storage progressing on schedule. At the same time, the division's "going global" process accelerated, closely following market trends and customer needs. Renewable Resource Equipment Segment: In the face of profound industry changes and intense market competition, the business division continued to increase investment in new product R&D and accelerated its deployment in markets outside China, striving to secure survival and development amid fierce competition. Internally, it focused tightly on cost reduction across supply, production, and sales to enhance operational quality. In the renewable resource operations segment, the end-of-life vehicle dismantling and steel scrap processing businesses constantly explored more diverse and flexible business models, and introduced specialized teams to improve operational quality and efficiency. In 2025, the company's total volume of end-of-life vehicle recycling and dismantling reached a record high. The business models continued to mature, internal management was consistently optimized, and industry synergies were accelerated, laying a foundation for future business development. In 2025, the company also achieved notable results in cross-segment industry synergies. The industrial linkages between the Magnetic Materials Business Division and the Rare Earth Business Division, the industry sharing between the Elevator Business Division and the Magnetic Materials Business Division, and the upstream-downstream resonance between the operations segment and the Rare Earth Business Division demonstrated the wisdom and commitment of the company's entire management team. Regarding the company's main business operations, HuaHong Technology's 2025 Annual Report disclosed: The company has consistently upheld its corporate mission of "Serving the Circular Economy, Creating a Green Life" and steadfastly adhered to its corporate spirit of "Striving, Fact-Based, Innovation, and Dedication," committing to becoming a renewable resource processing equipment manufacturer and a comprehensive resource recycling and utilization operator serving global markets. The company actively deployed renewable resource operation businesses, building a circular economy industry chain centered on end-of-life vehicle recycling and dismantling, extending downstream to the comprehensive utilization of steel scrap, rare earth recycling materials, and other metallic and non-metallic resources, while continuously exploring possibilities for expansion into related industries such as high-end manufacturing and smart manufacturing. During the reporting period, the company's main business was divided into four major segments: "Renewable Resource Equipment and Operations," "High-End Manufacturing of Elevator Parts," "Comprehensive Utilization of Rare Earth Resources," and "Rare Earth Magnetic Materials." HuaHong Technology's corporate development strategy and business plan announced in its 2025 Annual Report indicate: The company's overall development approach is as follows: strengthen product upgrades and technological innovation in renewable resource processing equipment to further consolidate its leading position in the renewable resource processing equipment industry; actively deploy renewable resource operation businesses, vigorously develop the end-of-life vehicle recycling and dismantling business, and use this as a main line to expand the comprehensive recycling and utilization of downstream steel scrap, rare earth scrap, and other metallic and non-metallic resources, building the company into a well-known enterprise in the circular economy sector. It will continue to advance the company's dual-wheel drive strategy, increase R&D, production, and sales of precision elevator parts, thereby building Weilman into a global industry leader in elevator signal systems and safety components; through fund operations, equity investments, mergers and acquisitions, and other capital operation models, accelerate the enhancement of the company's capital operation capabilities, achieve resource optimization and integration, continuously monitor extension opportunities in the upstream and downstream industry chain, and actively explore possibilities for the company's expansion into environmental protection, smart manufacturing, and IoT-related industries, forming new driving forces for company development and further enhancing its core competitiveness and profitability. According to the latest SMM price report: On July 17, the average price of Pr-Nd oxide was 766,000 yuan/mt, down 0.33% from the previous trading day. On July 17, Pr-Nd oxide futures prices declined, while inquiries in the spot market were sluggish. As a result, offers from Pr-Nd oxide suppliers edged lower. Nevertheless, most market participants remain confident about the outlook and showed a strong willingness to hold prices firm, which limited the actual decline in oxide prices, and low-cost supply remained scarce and hard to find. In the metals market, prices also fell. Magnetic material enterprises saw poor new orders, limiting their ability to accept high metal prices; purchases mainly served rigid restocking demand, leading to sluggish inquiries in the metal market. Upstream and downstream sectors remained locked in a stalemate, with the metals segment continuing to face pressure. In the short term, due to the stagnant trading, Pr-Nd product prices are expected to move sideways in a narrow range. Recommended Reading: