SMM April 24 News: Metals market: Overnight, base metals generally fell across both domestic and overseas markets. LME nickel and SHFE nickel both rose over 1%, with LME nickel up 1.68% and SHFE nickel up 1.65%. SHFE copper rose 0.04%, and SHFE tin rose 0.11%. The remaining metals all declined. LME copper and LME tin both fell over 1%, with LME copper down 1.19% and LME tin down 1.35%. The rest of the metals fell less than 1%. The alumina front-month contract fell 0.25%, and the foundry aluminum front-month contract fell 0.04%. Overnight, ferrous metals generally rose. Stainless steel rose 1.14%, and iron ore rose 0.25%. Hot-rolled coil and rebar saw slight fluctuations. Coking coal and coke side, both coking coal and coke fell 0.51%. Overnight, precious metals side, COMEX gold fell 0.93%, and COMEX silver fell 3.21%. In China, SHFE gold fell 0.2%, and SHFE silver fell 1.58%. Overnight closing prices as of 6:42 AM on April 24: Macro Front China: [General Offices of the CPC Central Committee and the State Council: The NDRC, NBS, and National Energy Administration shall establish a dynamic monitoring and early warning system for key data] The General Office of the CPC Central Committee and the General Office of the State Council issued the "Comprehensive Evaluation and Assessment Measures for Carbon Peaking and Carbon Neutrality." The measures stipulate that the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), and the National Energy Administration shall establish a dynamic monitoring and early warning system for key data, regularly monitoring indicators such as carbon emissions, coal consumption, oil consumption, new electricity consumption, and new clean energy power consumption at the national level and across provinces (autonomous regions and municipalities directly under the central government), and issue reminders and warnings to relevant provinces (autonomous regions and municipalities directly under the central government) as appropriate. (Xinhua News Agency) (Jin10 Data APP) [National Energy Administration: As of end-March, China's cumulative installed power generation capacity reached 3.96 billion kW, up 15.5% YoY] The National Energy Administration released national electricity statistics for January-March. As of end-March, China's cumulative installed power generation capacity reached 3.96 billion kW, up 15.5% YoY. Among them, solar power installed capacity was 1.24 billion kW, up 31.3% YoY; wind power installed capacity was 660 million kW, up 22.4% YoY. From January to March, the cumulative average utilization hours of national power generation equipment were 703 hours, down 66 hours from the same period last year. (Jin10 Data APP) [Guangzhou Futures Exchange issued a notice on adjusting the trading fee standards for platinum and palladium futures-related contracts.] After deliberation, effective from the trading session on April 27, 2026, the trading fee standards for platinum futures PT2606 and palladium futures PD2606 contracts will be adjusted to 0.01% of the transaction value, and the intraday close-today trading fee standards will be adjusted to 0.01% of the transaction value. US dollar: As of the overnight close, the US dollar index rose 0.22% to 98.83. Mitsubishi UFJ: Uncertainty over US trade policy persists. The Trump administration appears to favor a weaker US dollar. Concerns over US Fed independence remain given Warsh's nomination as Fed Chairman. (Jin10 Data APP) At the Senate hearing held this week, Warsh's performance was largely in line with expectations: he reaffirmed the importance of US Fed independence and elaborated on his views regarding US Fed reform, balance sheet reduction, and long-term economic trends. Although Trump has been publicly calling for interest rate cuts, Warsh made it clear that Trump had not asked him to make any commitments on cutting interest rates. However, the real highlight of the hearing was Warsh's in-depth discussion on "how to measure inflation." This is likely to become the new framework for defining price trends once Warsh takes the helm of the US Fed. (Jin10 Data) According to CME "FedWatch": the probability of the US Fed raising interest rates by 25 basis points in April was 1%, while the probability of keeping rates unchanged was 99%. The probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point interest rate cut by June was 2.6%, the probability of keeping rates unchanged was 96.4%, and the probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point rate hike was 1%. (Jin10 Data APP) On the macro front: Data to be released today include the US April University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index final reading, the US April one-year inflation rate expectations final reading, the UK April GfK Consumer Confidence Index, the UK March seasonally adjusted retail sales MoM, the German April IFO Business Climate Index, Japan's March core CPI YoY, and Canada's February retail sales MoM. Crude oil: As of the overnight close, oil prices in both markets rose together. WTI crude rose 4.35% and Brent crude rose 4.02%, marking a four-session winning streak, driven by renewed escalation in the Middle East situation and heightened tensions in the Strait of Hormuz. The Trump administration plans to extend a shipping waiver allowing foreign tankers to transport oil and gasoline within the US to address supply disruptions and price increases triggered by the Iran conflict. According to sources, the decision to continue exempting energy shipments from the Jones Act could be announced as early as local time Friday. The current waiver is set to expire on May 17. This move could provide some relief for US refiners that are beginning to book waterborne cargo for July. It remains unclear how long the extension will last or what range of commodities it will cover. A White House official said the extension was under consideration but provided no further details. (Jin10 Data APP) Analysts at ING said that due to slow progress in negotiations between the US and Iran, the market had to readjust expectations, as this raised concerns about the impact of prolonged supply disruptions on products. As regional mediators raced against time to get the diplomatic process back on track, and ship attacks in the Strait of Hormuz escalated tensions, Brent crude, the international oil benchmark, briefly rebounded above $100 per barrel. However, these analysts noted: "If negotiations make no progress, the market will become increasingly numb to the various rumors and headlines that have been dominating oil price movements recently." (Jin10 Data APP)

[SMM Tungsten Express] Driven by soaring tungsten prices and rising defense budgets, Vietnam's Masan High-Tech Materials is stepping up its search for strategic investors for its Nui Phao tungsten mine, one of the world's largest and most significant non-China tungsten sources. The company also plans to list on the Ho Chi Minh Stock Exchange in 2027, prioritizing debt reduction to achieve a "clean" balance sheet by 2027-2028. Its customers include Honeywell and Mitsubishi, with 2026 profit projected at 1.7-2.5 trillion Vietnamese dong.

SMM April 22: Metals market: As of the midday close, domestic market base metals mostly rose. SHFE copper was up 0.12%. SHFE aluminum was up 0.26%. SHFE lead was down 0.59%, and SHFE zinc was up 0.23%. SHFE tin was down 0.58%, and SHFE nickel was up 0.79%. In addition, the most-traded foundry aluminum futures were up 0.17%, and the most-traded alumina contract was up 0.14%. The most-traded lithium carbonate contract was up 0.21%. The most-traded silicon metal contract was up 0.4%. The most-traded polysilicon futures were up 5.24%. Ferrous metals mostly rose. Iron ore was up 0.64%, rebar and hot-rolled coil were both up less than 0.5%, and stainless steel was down 0.1%. Coking coal and coke: the most-traded coking coal contract was up 1.31%, and the most-traded coke contract was up 1.12%. Overseas market base metals, as of 11:48, LME metals were nearly all up. LME copper was up 0.79%. LME aluminum was up 0.59%, LME lead was down 0.26%, and LME zinc was up 0.1%. LME tin was up 1.44%. LME nickel was up 1.02%. Precious metals, as of 11:48, COMEX gold was up 1.2%, and COMEX silver was up 2.04%. Domestic market precious metals: the most-traded SHFE gold contract was down 0.54%, and the most-traded SHFE silver contract was down 1.91%. In addition, as of the midday close, the most-traded platinum futures were down 0.17%, and the most-traded palladium futures were up 0.35%. As of the midday close, the most-traded Europe containerized freight index contract was up 3.92%, at 2,205.7 points. As of 11:48 on April 22, midday futures quotes for selected contracts: Spot cargo and fundamentals Zinc: In the Tianjin market, #0 zinc ingot was mainly traded at 23,980-24,120 yuan/mt, Zijin brand at 24,060-24,140 yuan/mt, and #1 zinc ingot at around 23,980-24,060 yuan/mt. Zijin was quoted at a discount of 30-40 yuan/mt against the 2605 contract. Huzinc was quoted at 25,170 yuan/mt. #0 zinc ingot was quoted at a discount of 50-120 yuan/mt against the 2605 contract. Tianjin was quoted at a discount of around 50 yuan/mt against Shanghai. Macro front China: [Ministry of Emergency Management: China's total work safety accidents dropped significantly in Q1] April 22 - According to the Ministry of Emergency Management, China's total work safety accidents dropped significantly in Q1, with the safety situation in most regions and industry sectors improving notably. Shen Zhanli, Director of the Press and Publicity Department of the Ministry of Emergency Management, said that a total of 3,258 work safety accidents of various types occurred nationwide in Q1, down 26.7% YoY. No extraordinarily serious accidents occurred, but major accidents and significant near-miss incidents were frequent in some regions and industry sectors. Illegal production activities in sectors such as mining, chemicals, fire safety, and fireworks showed signs of resurgence. The pressure to prevent and curb major and extraordinarily serious accidents further increased, and the work safety situation remained challenging. Natural disaster side, China's Q1 was dominated by low-temperature freezing rain and snow, snowstorms, wind and hail, and earthquakes, with droughts, floods, forest fires, and geological disasters also occurring to varying degrees. (Xinhua News Agency) (Jin10 Data) [China Motorcycle Chamber of Commerce: Motorcycle Exports Reached 4.6268 Million Units in Q1] Based on customs data analysis, from January to March 2026, China's motorcycle exports totaled 4.6268 million units, up 13.49% compared to the same period last year, with an export value of $3.014 billion, up 16.93% compared to the same period last year. Latin America was the largest export destination, with exports of 1.4812 million units, down 8.47% YoY, and an export value of $963 million, down 0.99% YoY. Africa saw the largest growth, with exports of 1.753 million units, up 44.95% YoY, and an export value of $949 million, up 48.01% YoY. (Jin10 Data APP) [PV Patent Pool Expert Advisory Committee Inauguration Ceremony and PV Patent Pool Co-building Seminar Held in Beijing] On April 21, the PV Patent Pool Expert Advisory Committee Inauguration Ceremony and PV Patent Pool Co-building Seminar was held in Beijing. The establishment of the Expert Advisory Committee aimed to provide regulatory supervision and guidance over the construction and operation of China's PV patent pool, promoting its lawful, compliant, and healthy development. After prior solicitation, selection, and review, the first batch of 14 experts were selected, covering fields including intellectual property management, PV technology R&D, legal litigation, and antitrust research. At the event, representatives from enterprises including TrinaSolar Co., Ltd., JA Solar Technology Co., Ltd., and Jinko Solar Holdings Co., Ltd. jointly launched the PV patent pool in the TOPCon battery technology field. (National Industrial Information Security Development Research Center) [PBOC Net Injected 5.5 Billion Yuan via Reverse Repo Operations] The PBOC conducted 6 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repo operations today. As 500 million yuan of 7-day reverse repos matured today, a net injection of 5.5 billion yuan was achieved. (Jin10 Data APP) US dollar side: As of 11:48, the US dollar index was up 0.01% at 98.4. Fed Chairman nominee Kevin Warsh rebutted Democrats' concerns that he would become the President's "puppet," repeatedly emphasizing that he would be an independent decision-maker if his nomination was confirmed by the Senate. Warsh stated at the Senate Banking Committee hearing on Tuesday that a series of reforms should be made to how the US Fed makes decisions, including establishing a new inflation response framework and improving communication with the public. But he provided few details and dodged questions about the near-term path of short-term interest rates. (Wallstreetcn) According to CME "FedWatch": the probability of the US Fed raising interest rates by 25 basis points in April was 0%, and the probability of keeping rates unchanged was 100%. The probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point interest rate cut by the US Fed through June was 1.7%, and the probability of keeping rates unchanged was 98.3%. (Jin10 Data) A CITIC Securities research report stated that Warsh's testimony demonstrated the highly difficult balancing act he faces. On one hand, he needs to "please" Trump to a certain extent, thus acknowledging Trump's right to voice opinions on interest rates; on the other hand, he needs to earn the trust of the market and the US Fed internally, thus emphasizing the mission of price stability and the independence of the US Fed. Although Warsh's performance was unsatisfactory when facing questions from Democratic senators, this has a relatively small impact on whether Warsh can succeed Powell. Whether Warsh can successfully pass the Senate Banking Committee vote depends on whether he can secure the support of Republican Senator Tillis. We believe Trump will most likely TACO and withdraw the investigation into Powell to help Warsh pass the Senate vote. Warsh emphasized during the Q&A session that he would not become Trump's "puppet," and the market leaned toward hawkish trading. Warsh's ideas on reforming the US Fed deserve more market attention, especially his proposal that the US Fed needs a new inflation framework and his criticism of the US Fed's current approach to forward guidance. Warsh emphasized that the US Fed should shrink its balance sheet, with interest rates as the primary policy tool. However, we still believe Warsh's plan to shrink the balance sheet requires lengthy preparation, and the pace of implementation will be gradual. A CICC research report stated that Fed Chairman nominee Kevin Warsh attended the Senate Banking Committee hearing, revealing his core policy stance of a dual-track approach of "balance sheet reduction and interest rate cuts": at the balance sheet level, he explicitly opposed normalizing quantitative easing (QE), advocating for a gradual and orderly reduction of the US Fed's balance sheet size, exiting quasi-fiscal functions, and returning it to its monetary policy mandate; at the interest rate level, although he made no explicit commitment, his statements already showed an inclination toward cutting interest rates. In our view, Warsh's policy stance is not only an adjustment to the monetary transmission mechanism but also an extension of the "America First" strategy into the monetary domain amid the wave of deglobalization — shifting from a "global central bank" that endlessly supplies liquidity to the world, toward a new approach that firmly controls the monetary spigot, focuses on domestic productivity, and emphasizes monetary sovereignty. We believe this shift means the narrative of persistently excessive US dollar liquidity will face correction, and assets that purely rely on liquidity-driven gains and benefit from "US dollar over-issuance" may come under pressure. (Jin10 Data) Other currencies: Japan's March imports and exports continued to grow, but the trade outlook for the coming months remains clouded by the Middle East war. Yasuhisa Irie, an economist at Mizuho Securities, said that in the short term, Japan's total import value is likely to remain roughly flat, as supply constraints suppressed imports and high energy prices eroded consumer confidence, thereby limiting demand. Takeshi Minami, an economist at Norinchukin Research Institute, expected the consequences of energy shortages to become more apparent starting in April. Minami said: "Although the Japanese government has begun to release crude oil reserves and claims to have secured alternative procurement routes that do not rely on the Strait of Hormuz, a prolonged blockade could lead to significant economic contraction in emerging markets with smaller oil reserves." He added that this situation is expected to harm the Japanese economy in multiple ways, including a slowdown in economic activity and intensified inflationary pressures. (Jin10 Data) Data: The preliminary eurozone consumer confidence index for April, the UK March CPI monthly rate, and the UK March retail price index monthly rate will be released today. In addition, US Fed Governor Waller will deliver a speech at the Brookings Institution. Crude oil: As of 11:48, oil prices in both markets edged down, with WTI falling 0.22% and Brent falling 0.07%. Oil prices moved sideways as the market weighed the prospects of US-Iran peace negotiations. Data released by the American Petroleum Institute (API) showed that US crude oil inventory declined. For the week ending April 17, API crude oil inventory was -4.47 million barrels (expectations: -1.8 million barrels, previous: 6.101 million barrels). For the same week, API gasoline inventory was -5.165 million barrels (expectations: -1.333 million barrels, previous: 626,000 barrels). (Jin10 Data) Mitsubishi UFJ analyst Lloyd Chan said in a research note that the US-Iran conflict appeared to have shifted into a prolonged stalemate rather than a swift resolution. The senior currency analyst said the US appeared to be using a blockade of Iranian ports to pressure Tehran into a peace deal, or risk further military escalation. Chan said: "For markets, this environment means continued disruption to energy shipments through the Strait of Hormuz." The analyst added that pressure points were more evident in oil-sensitive currencies, including the Philippine peso and the Thai baht. (Jin10 Data) A research report from CITIC Securities noted that the recurring tensions in the Strait of Hormuz indicated that the impact of this round of events on the oil shipping market was still unfolding according to a three-phase logic. After a brief reopening on April 17, Iran reimposed the blockade on April 18, indicating that the situation had not yet stabilized. Regardless of how the U.S.-Iran standoff develops going forward, the market is still in the process of the Hormuz blockade shock gradually transmitting to oil shipping fundamentals. Oil shipping freight rates evolved in three stages: rates rose during the conflict period, vessel redeployment lengthened shipping distances and pushed up the freight rate center, and after the reopening, a rush to secure oil may drive freight rates higher for over two months. Currently, the third stage — the inevitable global scramble for crude oil following the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz — will inevitably transmit to the oil tanker shipping market. (Jin10 Data) Spot Market Overview: ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ►

L&F announced on the 10th that it has decided to discontinue its review of entering the anode materials business, including plans to establish a joint venture with Mitsubishi Chemical. The company said the decision was made in response to changes in external policies and market conditions.

[SMM Rare Earth Bulletin] US rare earth refiner ReElement Technologies announced that it had entered into a strategic partnership with Japan’s Mitsubishi Materials Corporation and received an equity investment. ReElement owns patented chromatographic separation technology that can efficiently process recycled materials, mine waste rock, and raw ore to produce high-purity critical minerals; Mitsubishi Materials will provide support in raw material sourcing and recycling infrastructure. The two parties plan to jointly assess commercialization opportunities for rare earth and critical minerals recycling solutions in the Japanese market. Mitsubishi Materials stated that rare earths are expected to become its third major pillar business after copper and tungsten.

Since the beginning of this year, the spot treatment charge market for copper concentrates has shown an unprecedented and severe downward trend. The SMM Copper Concentrate Spot Index has fallen from -45 USD/dmt at the start of the year to near -70 USD/dmt, with the speed and magnitude of the decline being historically rare. A negative treatment charge means that when smelters purchase copper concentrates, they not only fail to receive traditional processing income from miners but instead must pay the sellers. Based on the current TC of -70 USD/dmt, the actual cost smelters pay sellers in the copper smelting process is equivalent to a TC of 70 USD, or further converted to a TC+RC of approximately 112 USD. This extreme price signal has quickly drawn high market attention to smelter profitability and even sparked concerns about the sustainability of domestic copper smelting production. Despite treatment charges falling to historic lows, copper cathode production by Chinese smelters remains at high levels, currently around 1.2 million tons per month. This phenomenon of "producing more while losing more" appears, on the surface, to contradict market logic, but actually reflects smelters' passive choices and structural supporting factors in the current complex environment. Historically, extreme treatment charge scenarios are not unprecedented. In past industry downturns, smelters often relied on one or several factors—exchange rate fluctuations, rising sulfuric acid prices, or treatment charges themselves—to barely maintain cash flow balance. In the current cycle, the sharp rise in sulfuric acid prices has become a key variable supporting smelter survival. Currently, the ex-factory prices of smelter acid sold by domestic copper smelters generally range from 800 to 1,600 yuan per ton. The latest SMM Copper Smelting Acid Index stands at 1,235.5 yuan/ton. As a crucial byproduct of copper smelting, sulfuric acid price fluctuations significantly impact smelters' comprehensive earnings. Typically, smelters produce approximately one ton of sulfuric acid for every dry metric ton of copper concentrate processed. Based on the current sulfuric acid price of 1,235.5 yuan/ton, after deducting value-added tax (at a 13% rate) and converting to US dollars (using an exchange rate of 6.9), each ton of sulfuric acid can contribute about 158 USD in revenue for the smelter, equivalent to an additional 158 USD per dry metric ton of copper concentrate. If further converted to the TC+RC metric, this amounts to about 99 USD. Thus, the rise in sulfuric acid prices has significantly offset the loss pressure from negative copper concentrate treatment charges, with some more efficient smelters even achieving marginal profitability. It is precisely this "stabilizer" role of sulfuric acid that allows smelters to maintain high operating rates under extreme treatment charge conditions. However, the support of sulfuric acid for smelting profits is not unlimited, as its price trend is itself influenced by more complex international geopolitical factors. The recent sharp escalation of the Middle East situation has brought significant uncertainty to the global sulfuric acid and sulfur supply chain. Since the joint US-Israeli military strike against Iran on February 28, 2026, the Strait of Hormuz, the world's most critical energy transport route, has rapidly fallen into a severe transit crisis. After taking office, Iran's new Supreme Leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, immediately declared that the strait would remain closed as a strategic lever against the US-Israeli alliance and suggested that neighboring countries close US military bases. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps subsequently explicitly announced a ban on any vessels associated with the US or Israel from passing through the Strait of Hormuz, warning of severe consequences for unauthorized passage. The Strait of Hormuz is a critical chokepoint for global sulfur transport. Statistics show that before the conflict, over 100 ships passed through the strait daily. However, after the conflict erupted, transit traffic plummeted by over 90%, with extreme cases of no ships passing for an entire day, leaving over 3,000 vessels stranded in nearby waters. This effective blockade has not only directly impacted the crude oil market—with Brent crude futures rising over 50% within a month to exceed 114 USD per barrel—but has also severely disrupted the global supply chain for sulfur and sulfuric acid. War risks have caused shipping insurance costs to soar to over 20% of the cargo value, further increasing logistics costs and plunging global sulfur supply into a logistical crisis. Although Iran claims to allow passage for vessels from "non-hostile" countries, requiring them to obtain prior permission, actual transit volumes remain extremely low, far below global trade demand. Simultaneously, the Houthi armed group in Yemen has announced its involvement, posing new security threats to the Red Sea-Suez route. The compounding pressure on the two major shipping chokepoints of the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea is posing a systemic challenge to the global supply chains for energy and chemical raw materials. As the primary raw material for sulfuric acid production, the disruption in sulfur supply directly drives international and domestic sulfuric acid prices progressively higher. Given the current situation, geopolitical conflicts show no signs of easing in the short term, implying further room for sulfuric acid price increases. The continued rise in sulfuric acid prices will have a dual impact on the domestic copper smelting industry. On the one hand, increased sulfuric acid revenue will continue to provide crucial profit supplementation for smelters, enabling them to maintain production even at lower TC levels and potentially further depressing spot copper concentrate treatment charges. On the other hand, this surge in sulfuric acid prices, driven by geopolitical conflict, also makes smelter profitability highly dependent on external unstable factors, rendering the industry's overall risk resilience increasingly fragile. Notably, the extreme treatment charge environment has begun to have a tangible impact on the global layout of copper smelting capacity. Mitsubishi Materials of Japan recently announced its plan to cease operations at its Onahama copper smelter by the end of March 2027. The smelter has a crude and refined capacity of 230,000 tons, and the main reason for the closure is precisely the intensified competition in the global copper smelting industry, leading to a sharp deterioration in copper concentrate TC/RC and persistent pressure on business prospects. This decision sends a clear signal: against the backdrop of continuously bottoming treatment charges and industry profits highly dependent on byproducts and external environments, some high-cost smelting capacity or those lacking comprehensive recovery capabilities are facing pressure to exit the market. In summary, China's copper smelting industry is currently at a highly unusual cyclical juncture. On one hand, smelters, benefiting from high sulfuric acid prices, have temporarily weathered the impact of negative treatment charges, maintaining high output. On the other hand, sulfuric acid prices themselves are heavily dependent on geopolitical situations, and external variables like the Strait of Hormuz blockade introduce significant uncertainty into the sustainability of smelting profits. If tensions in the Middle East persist, sulfuric acid prices may continue to rise, leaving room for TC to fall further, potentially enhancing smelters' tolerance for extreme treatment charges in phases. However, if geopolitical tensions ease, sulfur supply chains recover, and sulfuric acid prices retreat from their highs, smelters would face the risk of a "double blow" from both low treatment charges and reduced byproduct revenue, potentially heralding a genuine phase of capacity reduction and deep adjustment for the industry. Therefore, the current apparent "resilience" of the copper smelting industry is essentially built upon a fragile balance between geopolitical factors and the byproduct market. For market participants, besides monitoring TC trends, it is crucial to closely track changes in sulfuric acid prices and the underlying geopolitical factors to make more accurate judgments regarding the production sustainability and profitability prospects of the smelting industry.

This week, the macro market still repeatedly traded around the Middle East situation and expectations for the US Fed. At the beginning of the week, tensions among the US, Israel, and Iran eased slightly, the US dollar pulled back, and risk appetite recovered temporarily, allowing copper prices to stop falling and rebound at one point. However, Iran later denied progress in the relevant negotiations, geopolitical tensions tightened again, international oil prices rose sharply, and market concerns over supply disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz resurfaced, with safe-haven sentiment rebounding accordingly and weighing on copper prices. Market bets on major central banks cutting interest rates this year were pushed back significantly, and expectations for macro liquidity weakened at the margin. Overall, this week’s copper price logic still centered on the repeated tug-of-war among geopolitical risks, oil prices, the US dollar, and interest rate cut expectations. Before macro uncertainty eases materially, copper prices will likely remain in the doldrums with rangebound fluctuations in the short term. Fundamentally, the logic of ore supply tightness continued. On March 25, Mitsubishi Materials announced that it will cease part of the copper concentrates processing business at the Onahama smelter in 2027, and explicitly mentioned the sharp deterioration in TC/RCs and pressure on smelting profits, further confirming the current reality of tight copper concentrates supply and continued damage to profitability on the smelting side. Global exchange copper inventories remained high, but demand in China had already started, and the pace of destocking in China’s social inventory exceeded market expectations. Supported by the opening of the import window and domestic demand, inventories outside China showed signs of flowing back into China. Looking ahead to next week, the macro theme is expected to remain largely unchanged. If the Middle East situation does not ease substantially, elevated oil prices and a relatively strong US dollar will likely continue to weigh on copper prices, and short-term resistance will remain; however, ore supply tightness, worsening smelting profits, and domestic demand will still provide some support for copper prices. Therefore, copper prices are expected to continue to fluctuate rangebound within a narrow range next week, with LME copper expected at $12,000-12,500/mt and SHFE copper expected at 93,000-96,500 yuan/mt. In the spot market, as imported cargoes arrive one after another, the pace of domestic inventory destocking may slow down. Although inventories are still being drawn down, spot premiums are expected to find it difficult to rise sharply due to the relatively high inventory base. Spot prices against the SHFE copper front-month contract are expected at a discount of 120 yuan/mt to a discount of 20 yuan/mt.

Mitsubishi Materials Corporation said on Wednesday that it had decided to cease the processing of copper concentrates at the Onahama smelter and refinery, as well as the operation of related smelting facilities, by the end of March 2027.In a statement, the company said the outlook for the related business had become increasingly uncertain due to intensifying competition from overseas smelters and a sharp decline in treatment and refining charges (TC/RCs) for copper concentrates.The company said in a statement that it expected to record an impairment loss of 21 billion yen in Q4 of the current fiscal year ending this month, mainly related to the smelter's fixed assets.

[SMM Rare Earth Bulletin] Japanese Prime Minister Takaichi Sanae and US President Trump reached an agreement under which both sides will strengthen cooperation on critical minerals to enhance supply chain resilience. The two countries signed a preliminary agreement to jointly develop deep-sea mineral resources, including rare earth-rich mud resources around Minamitorishima. The Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry and the Department of Commerce will establish a working group to advance technical cooperation on projects involving rare earth mud and manganese nodules. In addition, Mitsubishi Materials is cooperating with US-based ReElement Technologies on a project in Indiana to recycle rare earths from waste magnets.

Frontier Lithium announced that it has signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) with Panasonic Energy and Mitsubishi Corporation to explore potential collaboration in developing the North American battery supply chain. Under the agreement, Panasonic Energy has expressed interest in procuring lithium hydroxide from the PAK Lithium Project in Ontario, Canada. The project, which is being advanced through a joint venture between Frontier and Mitsubishi, plans to develop an upstream lithium mine and mill as well as a downstream lithium conversion facility. The project is expected to begin producing approximately 20,000 tonnes of battery-grade lithium salts annually starting in 2030.