In Q1 2026, China’s aluminum semis exports showed a pronounced pattern of product-category divergence amid the interplay of three factors: the long-term impact of the cancellation of export tax rebates in December 2024, the divergence in demand structures outside China, and the sudden outbreak of geopolitical conflict in the Strait of Hormuz.....

Recent volatility in the Indonesian commodities sector has been driven by mixed signals regarding new fiscal policies. Market participants are currently evaluating the implications of two distinct regulatory mechanisms: a broader windfall tax on bulk commodities like coal, nickel, and a targeted export duty. The conflation of these two policies has generated significant market uncertainty, culminating in a sharp spike in global nickel prices this week. To understand the current market anxiety, which culminated in a sharp spike in global nickel prices this week, it is essential to unpack the timeline of these policy discussions, differentiate the fiscal mechanisms at play, and assess the likelihood of their implementation. Background: From Broad Windfall Deliberations to Targeted Export Tariffs The narrative surrounding new commodity taxes in Indonesia did not emerge overnight; rather, it has evolved through distinct phases of policy signaling. The current policy discourse has evolved in phases. Initial discussions, highlighted by statements from Coordinating Minister for Economic Affairs Airlangga Hartarto on Mar 13, 2026, focused on the potential implementation of a windfall tax. This broader fiscal measure was aimed at capturing excess margins from exporters of coal, palm oil, and base metals, such as nickel, gold, and copper during periods of elevated global prices, functioning primarily as a macroeconomic revenue-generation tool. However, the conversation shifted dramatically on March 25, 2026. According to Bloomberg, news broke that Indonesia’s President had officially approved an export tax specifically targeting coal and nickel. This headline acted as an immediate catalyst, sending LME and SHFE nickel prices spiking. The confusion currently gripping the market stems from the conflation of these two distinct policy trajectories: the older, revenue-focused windfall tax concept championed by economic ministers, and the newly approved, strategically focused nickel export tax aimed at forcing further downstream industrialization. Analysis & Understanding: The Precedent of the "Windfall Tax" To accurately gauge the impact of these rumors, it is critical to understand that the concept of a "windfall tax" is not entirely unprecedented in Indonesia's regulatory framework, particularly for bulk commodities. There has actually been a windfall tax structure in place previously, though often masked under the nomenclature of progressive royalties and non-tax state revenues (PNBP). For the coal sector, the government already utilizes a tiered royalty system pegged to the Harga Batubara Acuan (HBA) benchmark. As coal prices escalate into higher brackets, the royalty percentage automatically increases, effectively acting as a windfall capture mechanism. Similarly before, the nickel sector utilizes the Domestic Benchmark Price (HPM) and associated royalty structures to adjust to global price rallies. It is crucial to note that the government has previously experimented with specific windfall profit provisions for downstream products, though the regulatory stance has recently hardened. For instance, under Government Regulation (GR) No. 26/2022, a unique windfall profit incentive was applied to nickel matte: when prices exceeded $21,000 per ton, the royalty rate was actually reduced from the standard 2% to 1%. (Old Version) However, this accommodating policy was explicitly abolished under the recent GR No. 19/2025. The removal of this incentive underscores a definitive shift toward more aggressive state revenue capture. Consequently, the recent "windfall tax" rumors primarily concern further tightening these existing brackets or introducing a supplementary surcharge on operating margins above a specific baseline. (New Version) Conversely, the newly approved nickel export tax serves a different primary function. Therefore, it is completely different than the concept of windfall tax. Rather than merely earning from peak profits, an export duty on semi-processed nickel (like NPI, MHP, FeNi, and Nickel Matte) is a structural tool designed to penalize the export of lower-value products. It is the natural continuation of Indonesia’s downstreaming ( hilirisasi ) agenda, intended to force producers to build stainless steel and EV battery precursor plants domestically in Indonesia, rather than shipping intermediate goods to other countries. While a windfall tax fluctuates with market prices, an export tax acts as a permanent structural cost added to the global supply chain. Conclusion: Imminent Implementation Amidst Ongoing Deliberations Despite definitive headlines regarding executive approval and the targeted April 1, 2026 implementation date, the exact implementation details are currently under review by the relevant ministries. Currently, specific details, including exactly how the proposed 5%, 8%, and 11% tiers might translate from coal to specific nickel material classifications (e.g., NPI, MHP, and high-grade matte), must be urgently finalized ahead of the April deadline. The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (ESDM), the Ministry of Finance, and the Coordinating Ministry for Maritime and Investment Affairs are working to balance state revenue optimization with the need to maintain the global cost-competitiveness of domestic smelters. This deliberative phase should not be interpreted as a policy reversal. According to SMM's understanding and industry checks, the implementation of these fiscal measures is highly probable. While the exact rollout of tariffs may be structured to mitigate immediate operational shocks to the domestic smelting sector, the fundamental policy direction indicates that the era of tariff-free exports for intermediate nickel products might decisively coming to an end.

Capacity side, according to incomplete statistics, China’s alkaline electrolyzer market remained at 43.77 GW, and the PEM electrolyzer market remained at 2.7 GW, with no new capacity added. No offline delivery information was available this week. Project-related updates: Guohua (Ningxia) New Energy Co., Ltd.: A price inquiry procurement was issued for the pre-feasibility study report preparation service for the Guohua Ningxia 100,000-mt Green Hydrogen Energy Supply Base Project (chemical section). It was understood that the Ningdong water electrolysis hydrogen production project of Guohua Ningxia had already put into operation a scale of 20,000 Nm³/h, with 6,000 Nm³/h under construction. Datang Inner Mongolia Duolun Coal Chemical Co., Ltd.: An inquiry-based procurement was launched for the feasibility study and green methanol certification consulting technical services for the CNCEC Duolun Coal Chemical coal-based process biomass co-firing coupled with green electricity green methanol production project. It was understood that the Datang Duolun 150,000-kW wind and solar power hydrogen production integrated demonstration project was China’s first medium-to-large-scale technology demonstration project for off-grid wind and solar power hydrogen production deeply coupled with coal chemical engineering. It was invested in and constructed by Datang Duolun Ruiyuan New Energy Co., Ltd., with a total investment of approximately 1.3 billion yuan. Construction officially began in November 2023, hydrogen was successfully produced on December 29, 2024, and it was formally connected to grid and put into operation on January 17, 2025. Shaanxi Construction Installation Group Co., Ltd.: The Guyang-Baiyun Obo gas transmission pipeline project, undertaken by Shaanxi Construction Installation Group, reached a major milestone, with its Guyang initial station and valve chamber having successfully passed completion acceptance. It was reported that the gas transmission pipeline project has a 20% hydrogen blending transmission capacity and is a key planned construction project under the “county-to-county coverage in western Inner Mongolia” initiative in the Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region’s 14th Five-Year Plan for oil and gas development. The pipeline has a total length of 125 km, starting from the Guyang initial station and generally running from south to north, successively passing through Guyang County, Darhan Muminggan Banner, and the Baiyun Obo mining district in Baotou City, and ultimately reaching Barun Industrial Park. Jiamusi Hanya New Energy Co., Ltd.: The Jiamusi Hanya wind power hydrogen production synthetic green methanol integrated project was filed. The project is located in Heilongjiang Province, with a total investment of 4 billion yuan. Construction scale and contents: mainly the construction of a 300,000-mt green methanol production unit and a thermal energy storage unit, with a planned land area of approximately 350,000 m². Windey Energy Technology Group Co., Ltd.: The list of winning candidates was announced for the biomass gasification process package and technical services project for the first-phase Handan Biomass Green Methanol Project. The top-ranked winning candidate was East China Engineering Science and Technology Co., Ltd. It was understood that East China Engineering has extensive experience in the gasification field, with experience in the design, construction, EPC general contracting, commissioning, and operation of more than 100 gasifiers, covering various mainstream processes such as fixed bed, fluidized bed, and entrained-flow bed. Zhongqing Xinneng (Baotou) Equipment Co., Ltd.: The annual production project for 100,000 hydrogen storage cylinders for hydrogen two-wheelers was filed. The project is located in Kundulun District, Baotou City, Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region. It plans to build a production line with an annual capacity of 100,000 hydrogen storage cylinders for hydrogen two-wheelers, including production workshop renovation and supporting utilities. Annual output value will reach 100 million yuan. The planned construction period is from April 2026 to September 2026. Shenneng North (Otog Banner) Energy Co., Ltd.: The change to the 30 MW-class pure hydrogen gas turbine hydrogen energy storage demonstration project under the Otog Banner integrated wind and solar power hydrogen production and green ammonia synthesis project was filed. After the change, the project site is located in the eastern project area of the Ordos Otog Economic Development Zone, within Shenneng's water electrolysis hydrogen production station in Ordos City, Otog Banner, bounded to the north by the green hydrogen-to-green ammonia project under the Otog Banner integrated wind and solar power hydrogen production and green ammonia synthesis project, to the east by Jingsan Street, to the west by Jinger Street, and to the south by Weisi Road. Construction scale and content: the project covers an area of 500 sq m, of which the hydrogen gas turbine occupies 300 sq m. As a hydrogen energy storage demonstration project, it includes one 30 MW pure hydrogen gas turbine, generator, hydrogen storage equipment, and supporting facilities. Through wind and solar power generation and water electrolysis for hydrogen production, the project has a total hydrogen storage capacity of 360,000 Nm³, an effective hydrogen storage volume of 270,000 Nm³, and is equipped with 12 spherical hydrogen storage tanks, each with a water capacity of 1,875 m³. Jiyuan (Siping) Green Energy Co., Ltd.: The EPC tender for the hydrogen production works of the SPIC Green Energy Lishu wind and solar power hydrogen production, biomass-coupled green methanol project was released. It is understood that the project is located in the chemical park of the Siping New-type Industrialized Economic Development Zone, Lishu County, Siping City, Jilin Province. It adopts a green hydrogen coupled with biomass gasification process to synthesize 197,200 mt/year of methanol, started construction in August 2025, and is expected to be commissioned in September 2027. The project includes three hydrogen production workshops. Workshops No. 1 and No. 2 each are arranged with 12 sets of 1,000 Nm³/h alkaline electrolytic hydrogen production electrolyzers plus three sets of 4,000 Nm³/h hydrogen purification units; Workshop No. 3 is arranged with four sets of 1,000 Nm³/h alkaline electrolytic hydrogen production electrolyzers plus one set of 4,000 Nm³/h gas-liquid separation unit, among others. Sinopec Sales Co., Ltd. Tibet Petroleum Branch : The tender notice for Section I of the general construction contracting project for the Shannan hydrogen-oxygen combined supply project was released. The construction site is in Naidong District, Shannan City, Tibet Autonomous Region; the planned construction period is 180 days; the estimated contract value for the section is 27.23 million yuan (tax included); the hydrogen production portion of the section tender includes an IGBT rectifier and control system skid, hydrogen production skid, oxygen purification unit, pure water machine and chiller unit skid, and related supporting facilities, while the hydrogen refueling portion includes a 35 MPa dual-nozzle hydrogen dispenser, 45 MPa hydrogen compressor skid, 45 MPa hydrogen storage cylinder bank, and sequence control panel. Ming Yang Smart Energy Group Co., Ltd.: It held a signing ceremony at Ming Yang Group headquarters for the hydrogen-fueled gas turbine complete-unit R&D and manufacturing project with the People's Government of Hudai Town, Binhu District, Wuxi City, Jiangsu Province, with both parties formally reaching a strategic cooperation agreement. Sichuan Zhongke Hydrogen Energy Technology Co., Ltd. : First Public Notice of Environmental Impact Assessment Information for Phase II of the Integrated Energy Station Project Featuring Hydropower, Wind and Solar Power, Hydrogen, and Natural Gas Multi-Energy Complementarity. According to the document, Phase II of the integrated energy station project featuring hydropower, wind and solar power, hydrogen, and natural gas multi-energy complementarity is located in Nanchong High-tech Zone, with Sichuan Zhongke Hydrogen Energy Technology Co., Ltd. as the project developer. It will build an integrated hydrogen production and refueling station, along with supporting public utility facilities, to realise the hydrogen refueling function of the integrated energy station for hydrogen-powered vehicles, and will also build one hydrogen energy industry R&D production site. GRINM Engineering Institute Co., Ltd. : The new materials pilot platform in Huairou Science City completed final acceptance upon completion, and four key pilot lines, including solid-state hydrogen storage and ceramic co-firing materials, entered the stage of commissioning and line integration. Among them, the total investment in the solid-state hydrogen storage project is 14.5 million yuan, and the total investment in the ceramic co-firing materials project is 12 million yuan, which will support the commercialisation of new material achievements and the industrialisation of hydrogen energy and key electronic materials. Policy Review​ 1. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the Ministry of Finance, and the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) issued a notice on carrying out pilot work for the comprehensive application of hydrogen energy. The document states that by 2030, hydrogen energy in city clusters is expected to achieve large-scale application across diverse fields, and the average price of hydrogen for end-use is expected to fall below 25 yuan/kg, with efforts to reduce it to around 15 yuan/kg in certain advantaged regions; national fuel cell vehicle ownership is expected to double from the 2025 level, with efforts to reach 100,000 units. Through the expansion of application scale, it will promote innovative breakthroughs in hydrogen energy application technologies, processes, and equipment, realise iterative upgrades of fuel cells, electrolyzers, storage and transportation devices, and materials, and promote hydrogen energy as a new economic growth driver to support a comprehensive green transformation of economic and social development. 2. The People's Government of Hunan Province issued the Hunan Province 2026 Plan for National Economic and Social Development. The document states that efforts will be made to advance the circular economy and cleaner production and build a number of zero-carbon parks and zero-carbon factories. It is expected to accelerate the green and low-carbon transformation of the energy system, optimise the management of new energy project pipelines, and speed up the construction of key wind and solar power projects. It will expand green energy consumption scenarios and implement a three-year doubling plan for the service capacity of charging facilities. It will also actively develop the hydrogen energy industry and expand the scale of natural gas utilisation. 3. With the approval of the National Energy Administration, the Standardization Technical Committee for Hydrogen Energy in the Energy Industry was established in Beijing. The establishment of this committee was intended to improve the industry standards system, lead technological innovation, and regulate market order. Enterprise Developments Haida Qingneng Ship (Dalian) Co., Ltd.: The nation's first inland 64-TEU hydrogen fuel cell-powered container vessel, Dongfang Qinggang, for which it supplied the powertrain, successfully completed its first long-distance trial voyage. The entire system operated stably, the navigation performance was excellent, and the trial voyage was a complete success. Hydrogen Power (Beijing) Technology Services Co., Ltd.: 100 hydrogen-powered refrigerated trucks were officially delivered to Hydrogen Cheng Times and will be operated by Hydrogen Power Technology as the agent. Rongcheng New Energy Group: Successfully delivered 50 hydrogen-powered heavy trucks to Cangzhou Huagang International Logistics Co., Ltd. This batch of vehicles will be put into service on the transport route from Huanghua Port to the Shandong Lubei Aluminum Industry Base. CSSC Engine Co., Ltd.: Its WinGD6X72DF-A-1.0 ammonia-fueled low-speed engine successfully passed functional integration approval and bench testing, and was successfully delivered in Qingdao. It is understood that this was the first ammonia-fueled marine engine in China to be formally delivered as a commercial product. Aerospace Engineering Company: Signed contracts for two major green hydrogen engineering projects in succession, namely the hydrogen refueling station water electrolysis hydrogen production project of Zhongqing Energy Development (Shandong) Co., Ltd., and the electrolytic hydrogen production unit project for the Inner Mongolia Fenglü green hydrogen-coupled coal-to-olefins project. For these two projects, Aerospace Engineering Company will provide a total of 16 sets of HTJSDJ-1000/1.6 alkaline electrolyzers, together with supporting post-processing systems and utility engineering equipment, and will be responsible for engineering design. This cooperation marked Aerospace Engineering Company's simultaneous breakthroughs in the two major fields of green transportation and green hydrogen chemicals. Qinghang Times (Shenzhen) Technology Co., Ltd. : Qinghang Times was established on January 5, 2026, with a registered capital of 1 million yuan and legal representative He Rongjie. Founded by a Tsinghua University master's and doctoral team, it received support from Tsinghua entrepreneurship and innovation platforms including Tsinghua i-Space and Tsinghua Chuang+, and was selected for the Sci-Tech Innovation Light "Future Tech Innovators Program." With a technical solution combining liquid hydrogen storage and a high-temperature PEM hydrogen-electric coupling system, it increases aircraft driving range by more than 10 times and payload capacity by 2-3 times. Recently, it completed seed-round financing of several million yuan, with the investor undisclosed. Shenzhen Hydrogen Zhi Energy Co., Ltd.: Completed A+ round financing, with Shenzhen Energy Investment as the investor. Anhui Mashui New Energy Technology Co., Ltd. : Anhui Mashui Technology completed A-round financing of over 100 million yuan, led by NIO Capital. This round of funding will be used primarily to fulfill large orders, increase R&D reserves, support new factory construction, and cover daily operations, so as to drive the integration and upgrading of the industry chain. China Energy Engineering Corporation Research Institute: The kick-off meeting for the international standard High-Pressure Liquid Hydrogen Pump for Hydrogen Refueling Stations, led and submitted by the Low-Carbon Institute, was held online. Since the standard was approved for project initiation in November last year, this meeting clarified the advancement plan and technical roadmap, bringing together 20 experts from China, the United States, Germany, France, Russia, Japan, and the European Industrial Gases Association, who reached consensus on core issues such as the standard’s scope and application scenarios, thereby laying a solid foundation for the high-quality and timely delivery of the standard. Jiangsu Guofu Hydrogen Energy Equipment Co., Ltd. : A delegation from Thailand’s water, electricity, and related institutions came to China for exchanges on the new energy industry and made a special trip to Zhangjiagang, Jiangsu, to visit the rooftop PV hydrogen production project jointly developed by Zonergy and Guofu Hydrogen Energy. It was understood that the project relied on a distributed PV system installed on factory rooftops and used PV power generation to provide clean and stable electricity for enterprise production and energy applications, balancing efficient energy utilization with green development; at the same time, it integrated hydrogen energy application scenarios and was equipped with an ESS to ensure a stable energy supply for hydrogen production. It is a leading distributed PV hydrogen production demonstration project in China by scale, showcasing China’s advanced achievements in the integrated development of PV and hydrogen energy. Beijing SinoHytec Co., Ltd.: Signed a strategic cooperation agreement with Haitai Solar and the Hebei Hydrogen Energy Society, relying on the National Energy Administration’s first batch of hydrogen energy pilot policies and centering on the Zhangjiakou-Chengde-Tangshan hydrogen energy regional pilot to advance the deep integration of “government, industry, academia, research, and application.” The three parties will focus on the Kangbao-Caofeidian long-distance hydrogen pipeline with annual hydrogen transmission capacity of 1.55 million mt, creating a “hydrogen production in Zhangjiakou and Chengde, application in Tangshan” model. Haitai Solar will provide SinoHytec with a stable hydrogen supply and storage and transportation services, addressing the industry’s high storage and transportation costs and supporting high-quality regional hydrogen energy development and the implementation of the “dual carbon” goals. The Sixth Academy of China Aerospace Science and Technology Corporation: Released four new hydrogen energy products in Beijing, including an onboard liquid hydrogen system, liquid hydrogen refueling equipment, a liquid hydrogen tank container, and an alkaline electrolyzer, and also released a blue book on the hydrogen energy industry to help build the hydrogen energy industry ecosystem. Beijing Hydrosys Technology Co., Ltd.: Its self-developed hydraulic-driven hydrogen compressor underwent rigorous assessment and passed EU CE certification. Patent Applications 1. Shanghai Institute of Ceramics, Chinese Academy of Sciences (China) disclosed patent CN2025110028 and developed a ceramic-based anion exchange membrane, with a laboratory-tested service life of up to 80,000 hours. 2. Johnson Matthey (UK) filed patent WO2025109876, disclosing an Fe-Ni-Mo ternary non-precious metal catalyst formulation with activity close to that of platinum-based materials. Technology Footprint/Technical Specifications 1. A joint team from Xi’an Jiaotong University and Peking University jointly conducted R&D on a new-type osmium-based catalyst, significantly improving the efficiency and economics of hydrogen production via AEM water electrolysis and supporting the large-scale deployment of low-cost green hydrogen. 2. Johnson Matthey and Syensqo achieved efficient recycling and reuse of platinum group metals and ionomers in PEM fuel cells and electrolyzers, significantly reducing the carbon footprint. 3. Relevant research teams from the School of Electrical Engineering at Xi’an Jiaotong University and the State Key Laboratory of Electrical Materials and Electrical Insulation successfully developed the Ru/Ti3C2Ox@NF bifunctional electrocatalyst for seawater electrolysis. 4. The group standard Technical Specification for Hydrogen Production by Coupled Electrolysis with Wind and Solar Power, PV+ESS, and Green Electricity (No. T/CIEP 0272—2025) was released and implemented by the China Industrial Environmental Protection Promotion Association. Zhongneng Dayou Energy Technology Co., Ltd. successfully developed a 100 kW-class PEM electrolyzer hydrogen production multi-field coupling test device. 5. GKN Powder Metallurgy announced that it has developed a next-generation high performance, high-porosity, high-purity porous transport layer (HP-PTL) for proton exchange membrane (PEM) electrolysis.

Recently, Joint Circular No. 00156 of the Ministry of Finance and the Ministry of Mines of the DRC / Cabinet of the Ministry of Mines / 2026 and Cabinet of the Ministry of Finance / 2026, concerning regulatory measures to standardize control over deviations in the detection of refined cobalt content in exported cobalt hydroxide under the quota system framework of the Authority for the Regulation and Control of Strategic Mineral Substances’ Markets in the DRC, is translated as follows: The English translation of the above text is:

[SMM Morning Meeting Summary: LME Inventory Increased by 20kt, LME Zinc Came Under Pressure] Overnight, LME zinc opened at $3,277/mt. In early trading, LME zinc briefly rose to a high of $3,293/mt before bulls reduced open interest, sending LME zinc fluctuating downward throughout the session and touching a low of $3,210/mt during the night session. The center then rebounded slightly, and it finally closed down at $3,233/mt, down $46/mt, a decrease of 1.4%, with trading volume increasing to 13,404 lots and open interest falling by 3,868 lots to 214,000 lots.

On 9 January, China’s Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration released a new export tax rebate policy. From 1 April 2026, China’s export tax rebates of up to 13% for solar battery panels will be rolled back, while the rebate rate for battery products will be reduced from 9% to 6%. The complete phase-out of tax rebates for the above-listed products is scheduled for 1 January 2027. This policy aims to negate price distortions emerged in overseas battery markets, which have long affected the profit margins of domestic manufacturers.

According to SMM data, during the week of March 9–13, 2026 , China’s stainless steel market moved into the middle phase of the traditional peak-demand season known as “Golden March,” while trading in the most-active stainless steel futures contract rolled smoothly into SS2605 . Against a backdrop of escalating geopolitical tensions and a visible turn in inventory trends, stainless steel futures continued to trade at relatively elevated levels. As of 10:15 a.m. on March 13 , the contract stood at RMB 14,275/mt (about USD 2,068/mt) , up RMB 40/mt (about USD 5.80/mt) from the previous Friday’s close. This week’s key market tension remained the mismatch between rising supply and only a modest recovery in demand. Although fundamentals have yet to show strong upward momentum, geopolitical risk premiums and persistently high raw material costs have kept downside pressure limited, preventing a broader correction from taking shape. Macro backdrop: geopolitics abroad, policy support in China At the macro level, external black swan risks and policy support in China have created a clear contrast. Iran reiterated that it would maintain the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, reinforcing safe-haven demand and pushing the US dollar index higher. That, in turn, capped upside in dollar-denominated base metals. Meanwhile, US core CPI rose 2.5% year on year in February , in line with expectations, easing immediate inflation concerns. Even so, the market remains wary of a potential surge in energy prices in March. In China, the Ministry of Finance has signaled that fiscal policy in 2026 will remain more proactive, with RMB 100 billion (about USD 14.49 billion) allocated to strengthen coordination between fiscal and financial policy, particularly in support of household consumption and private-sector investment. That measured policy support has helped improve expectations for a broader recovery in commodity demand. Inventory draw emerges, but spot demand remains cautious On the fundamentals side, the stainless market has finally reached a meaningful inflection point in destocking, although spot trading still appears underwhelming. The latest SMM data shows that social inventories fell to 998,100 mt this week from 1,016,400 mt the previous week, a decline of 18,300 mt , taking inventories back below the psychologically important 1 million mt threshold. As downstream processing plants gradually resumed operations, demand continued to recover. However, while spot transactions improved from earlier levels, trading activity still fell short of the strength typically associated with the seasonal peak. End-users have largely remained focused on buying only what they need, with little appetite for active restocking. At present, the supply increase resulting from concentrated mill restarts in March is meeting only a slow improvement in end-use demand. That still-fragile recovery continues to limit market confidence in any stronger upside breakout during the peak season. Raw material costs remain the key floor Raw material costs continued to trend higher and remain the market’s main source of downside support. With geopolitical tensions lingering and tight ore supply from Indonesia continuing to feed through the market, upstream quotations kept rising. As of March 13 , high-grade NPI moved up further to RMB 1,094.5 per nickel unit (about USD 158.61 per nickel unit) , up RMB 6.5 (about USD 0.94) from a week earlier. High-carbon ferrochrome also climbed to RMB 8,650 per 50-basis mt (about USD 1,253.50 per 50-basis mt) . As raw material prices continue to move higher, stainless mills’ production cost floors are also rising. Although downstream buyers remain resistant to expensive material, room for mills to offer discounts has narrowed sharply under the pressure of high costs and, in some cases, negative margins. As a result, cost support for both futures and spot prices has become increasingly firm. Outlook: high-level consolidation likely to continue Overall, the stainless steel market is now caught in a complex tug-of-war defined by rising supply, only a weak recovery in demand, firm cost support, and a clear turn in inventories. The safe-haven and inflation-hedging logic stemming from the Strait of Hormuz crisis, together with NPI prices approaching the 1,100 threshold, has effectively limited downside in the futures market. At the same time, subdued spot order activity has capped upside momentum. Looking ahead to next week, the market will be watching closely to see whether the destocking trend can continue. The main focus will shift to actual arrivals following mill restarts and the pace at which downstream orders improve. In the near term, the most-active stainless steel futures contract is expected to remain rangebound at relatively high levels. Market participants are advised to closely monitor geopolitical developments and nickel ore price movements, as both could trigger sudden directional swings. Written by: Bruce Chew | bruce.chew@smm.cn +601167087088

China’s Ministry of Finance launched the 2026 application process for pilot programs to address shortcomings in county-level charging and battery swapping infrastructure. For charging and battery swapping stations powered by PV generation, if the amount of electricity “generated for self-use” exceeds 40% of total charging volume, the annual total charging volume of such “generated for self-use” electricity may be converted at 1.2 times.

[SMM Aluminum Express News] Indonesia's Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (ESDM) targets tax compliance as a mandatory requirement for submitting the Work Plan and Budget (RKAB) starting in 2027. Previously, Director General of Taxes at the Ministry of Finance Bimo Wijayanto stated that his office and the Directorate General of Minerals and Coal (Ditjen Minerba) ESDM are finalizing discussions on this new regulation. The rule will require a fiscal compliance certificate as an integral part of RKAB submissions for mining companies, ensuring tax obligations are met before annual RKAB approval.

[SMM Morning Meeting Minutes: Weak Non-Farm Payrolls Data; LME Zinc Posted a Bullish Candlestick] Last Friday, LME zinc opened at $3,240.0/mt and dipped to $3,221.0/mt in early trading. It then saw its center fluctuate upward at a slow pace. After entering the night session, it accelerated higher and touched a high above $3,343.0/mt, finally closing up at $3,323.0/mt, up $93/mt, a gain of 2.88%. Trading volume increased to 121,000 lots, while open interest fell by 516 lots to 219,000 lots.