SMM, June 30 – On June 15, 2026, according to the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) website, the NDRC, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the Ministry of Ecology and Environment, the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission of the State Council, the National Energy Administration, and other departments jointly issued the Notice on Launching a Three-Year Campaign for Energy Conservation and Carbon Reduction Upgrades in Key Industries . The notice's requirements for the electrolytic aluminum industry include: promoting large-scale reduction cells of 500 kA and above, and accelerating the upgrade of prebaked anode cells below 300 kA. SMM has compiled publicly available market information. Excluding idled capacity, as of June 2026, cells of 300 kA and below accounted for 16% of total domestic capacity, of which approximately 1.75 million tonnes of capacity already have publicly announced replacement or upgrade projects. It should be noted that the Notice on Launching a Three-Year Campaign for Energy Conservation and Carbon Reduction Upgrades in Key Industries does not yet mandate compulsory phase-out provisions regarding cell amperage requirements. Domestic electrolytic aluminum production is therefore not expected to be materially affected in the near term. Meanwhile, capacity replacement and upgrade projects across the domestic industry are progressing steadily, with replacement projects surfacing frequently. As of June 30, 2026, a total of 13 electrolytic aluminum capacity replacement projects had been publicly announced, of which 8 are upgrade and retrofitting projects. As of June 2026, capacity equipped with 500 kA and above cells accounted for 12.9% of the total, a share expected to rise further going forward. Of the 13 publicly announced projects, 11 plan to build 500 kA or 600 kA cells, representing 93.1% of total proposed capacity under replacement projects. SMM Commentary: Electrolytic aluminum output is unlikely to see significant near-term disruption. However, as replacement and upgrade efforts continue, power consumption per tonne of domestic electrolytic aluminum production is expected to decline further, helping the industry meet its energy conservation and carbon reduction targets.

SMM June 25: In the metals market: Base metals on the domestic market all fell overnight. SHFE tin dropped 2.64%, SHFE copper fell 2.3%, SHFE zinc lost 1.33%, SHFE aluminum declined 2.13%, and SHFE nickel slid 1.72%. SHFE lead edged down 0.95%. In addition, the most-traded alumina futures contract fell 0.84%, and the aluminum casting main contract lost 1.69%. Ferrous metals showed mixed performance overnight. Iron ore rose 0.47%, rebar and HRC edged lower, and stainless steel fell 0.85%. In coking coal and coke: the most-traded coking coal contract gained 0.4%, and the most-traded coke contract rose 1%. On the overseas market, LME base metals all fell overnight. LME copper dropped 2.59%. LME aluminum tumbled 4.43%, hitting a more than three-month low of $3,110/mt during the session. LME lead fell 1.59%. LME zinc lost 2.67%. LME tin declined 3.05%. LME nickel dropped 2.52%. In precious metals overnight: COMEX gold fell 3.21%, touching a session low of $3,975.7/oz; COMEX silver plunged 7.39%, hitting a session low of $55.75/oz. SHFE gold lost 2.45%, and SHFE silver tumbled 6.31%. As of 7:12 on June 25, overnight closing prices: Macro front China: [Ministry of Commerce: Announcement on Further Improving the Handling of Reports Regarding Violations of Export Controls on Strategic Mineral Dual-Use Items] Announcement No. 26 of 2026 of the Ministry of Commerce. To fully leverage social oversight and combat violations of export controls on strategic mineral dual-use items, all organizations and individuals have the right to report suspected violations of relevant laws and regulations in exporting strategic mineral dual-use items, including: exporting strategic mineral dual-use items without authorization; exporting such items beyond the scope, conditions, or validity period specified in the export license; exporting prohibited strategic mineral dual-use items; circumventing licensing requirements by modifying or disassembling items into components or parts to export strategic mineral-related dual-use items; and evading export control regulations on strategic mineral dual-use items by routing through a third country (region), among others. [Ministry of Commerce Releases "Measures for the Security Investigation of Industry Chain and Supply Chain"] To implement the "Provisions of the State Council on the Security of Industry Chain and Supply Chain" (State Council Order No. 834), conduct security investigations on industry chain and supply chain effectively, and safeguard the security of China's industry chain and supply chain, the Ministry of Commerce formulated the "Measures for the Security Investigation of Industry Chain and Supply Chain," which is hereby released and takes effect from the date of publication. [Ministry of Commerce and seven other departments: Strictly crack down on illegal recycling and dismantling of end-of-life motor vehicles, and regulate the business practices of end-of-life motor vehicle recycling enterprises] The Ministry of Commerce, National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, Ministry of Public Security, Ministry of Ecology and Environment, Ministry of Transport, State Administration for Market Regulation, and other departments formulated the "Special Rectification Action Plan for Illegal Recycling and Dismantling of End-of-Life Motor Vehicles." It is hereby issued. This special rectification action focuses on addressing prominent issues in the end-of-life motor vehicle recycling industry. All regions and relevant departments should adhere to a problem-oriented approach, improve the coordinated supervision mechanism, strictly crack down on illegal recycling and dismantling of end-of-life motor vehicles, and regulate the business practices of end-of-life motor vehicle recycling enterprises. Through this special rectification action, the standardized operation level of end-of-life motor vehicle recycling enterprises will be continuously enhanced, the proportion of end-of-life motor vehicle recycling volume to vehicle deregistration volume will be steadily expanded, illegal recycling and dismantling of end-of-life motor vehicles will be effectively curbed, the level of parts recycling and reuse from end-of-life motor vehicles will be continuously improved, and the high-quality development of the end-of-life motor vehicle recycling and dismantling industry will be promoted. Additionally, local authorities are guided to concurrently address the recycling standards for PV modules and wind turbine blades. [Central Bank: To conduct 500 billion yuan MLF operation on June 25] According to the central bank, on June 25, 2026, the People's Bank of China will conduct a 500 billion yuan MLF operation through a fixed-quantity, rate-based tender, and multiple-price winning bids, with a term of one year. [CAICT: Domestic mobile phone shipments reached 27.639 million units in May; 5G phone shipments up 23.8% YoY] Data from the China Academy of Information and Communications Technology (CAICT) shows that in May 2026, domestic mobile phone shipments reached 27.639 million units, up 16.5% YoY. Among them, 5G phone shipments were 26.224 million units, up 23.8% YoY, accounting for 94.9% of total mobile phone shipments during the same period. As for the US dollar: The US dollar index extended gains from the previous two trading days, rising another 0.2% overnight to close at 101.57. The PCE price index release on Thursday will be the next key period. Forecasters anticipate that the May data will show acceleration on both MoM and YoY basis, providing new reference for the Fed’s policy direction. Goldman Sachs' chief economist Jan Hatzius reiterated that his baseline forecast remains no rate hike, citing that if a lasting peace is achieved in the Middle East, the inflation environment will be milder than the Fed currently expects. (Wall Street Journal) US Treasury Secretary Bessent praised Fed Chairman Warsh for eliminating forward guidance, and he also believed that no one should make dot plot forecasts. On the economic front, he expected real wage growth to return to its pre-April pace, and he anticipated economic growth to accelerate through the remainder of the year without driving up inflation. He stressed that US dollar dominance was crucial. He believed that after the situation in Ukraine ended, Russia would want to return to the dollar system, and the new Venezuela was moving back into that system. During the period when interest rates were being lowered, the dollar could remain strong, and the US would be happy to take the right measures to keep the dollar strong. On the issue of Iran, Bessent stated that the US Treasury would oversee the distribution of funds to Iran, which would initially be disbursed through Qatar, and a significant portion of those funds would be used to purchase US food and medicine supervised by the Treasury, and any funds received by Iran should belong to Iranians. (Gold Ten Data) According to CME "Fed Watch": The probability of the US Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in July was 65.8%, and the probability of cumulative rate hikes of 25 basis points was 34.2%. The probability of the US Fed keeping interest rates unchanged through September was 33.6%, the probability of cumulative rate hikes of 25 basis points was 49.7%, and the probability of cumulative rate hikes of 50 basis points was 16.7%. Macro front: Data to be released today include Australia's May seasonally adjusted unemployment rate, Germany's July GfK Consumer Confidence Index, US initial jobless claims for the week ending June 20, US May core PCE price index year-over-year, US May personal spending month-over-month, US Q1 real GDP annualized quarter-over-quarter final, US Q1 real personal consumption expenditures quarter-over-quarter final, US Q1 core PCE price index annualized quarter-over-quarter final, US May core PCE price index month-over-month, and US May durable goods orders month-over-month. Furthermore, attention should be paid to: Nvidia's annual general meeting of shareholders; the Bank of Canada's release of monetary policy meeting minutes; the US Fed's release of annual bank stress test results; Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda's attendance at a central bank lecture event held by the International Monetary Fund (IMF); Micron Technology's fiscal year 2026 Q3 earnings call; 300 billion yuan in 1-year medium-term lending facility (MLF) and 248 billion yuan in 7-day reverse repos maturing today. Crude oil side: Overnight, both oil futures dropped sharply, with WTI falling 4.56% to an intraday low of $69.93/bbl and Brent falling 4.45% to an intraday low of $73.32/bbl. Brent crude has largely erased all the geopolitical risk premium accumulated since the outbreak of the Iran war. News-wise, Trump stated in a social media post on the 24th that Iran had informed the US it would not impose any tolls, insurance premiums, or other charges on ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz, but he also threatened that negotiations would immediately cease if this information proved false. According to estimates by the International Energy Agency, the UAE's oil exports have recovered to nearly 85% of pre-war levels, reflecting a substantial increase in the volume of oil shipped through the Strait of Hormuz in recent weeks. The UAE alone sold about 60 million barrels of crude oil from the Persian Gulf in recent weeks. Data shows that vessel traffic in the Strait of Hormuz has hit a new high since the signing of the memorandum of understanding and continues to rise. (Wall Street See)

On May 18, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology released the "Implementation Measures for Capacity Replacement in the Steel Industry" (hereinafter referred to as the "Replacement Measures"). SMM conducted a comparative review and analysis of the relevant content...

With the rapid development of the global NEV industry and the growing embrace of green and low-carbon concepts, the battery recycling industry is transforming from a marginal sector into a "new frontier" in the capital market, demonstrating unprecedented development potential. This industry, once regarded as merely "selling scrap," has now become a core necessity for safeguarding national resource security, implementing the "dual carbon" strategy, and promoting the sustainable development of the new energy industry, ushering in its own golden era. Strong policy support has injected robust momentum into the industry's development. In February 2025, the General Office of the State Council issued the *Action Plan for Improving the NEV Power Battery Recycling and Utilization System*, requiring the acceleration of relevant regulations and rules to standardize recycling and utilization through rule of law. Subsequently, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, together with the Ministry of Ecology and Environment, the State Administration for Market Regulation, and other departments, jointly issued the *Interim Measures for the Recycling and Comprehensive Utilization of Waste Power Batteries from NEVs*, setting new requirements across multiple dimensions including power battery traceability, recycling and utilization, and supervision. Driven by both policy and market forces, the battery recycling industry has continued to expand in scale, exhibiting an "explosive" growth trajectory. Currently, the number of battery recycling-related enterprises in China exceeded 200,000. In the first ten months of 2025 alone, over 30,000 new battery recycling-related enterprises were registered, representing a YoY increase of over 15% compared to the same period last year. Top-tier enterprises such as GEM and Tianqi Co., Ltd. have ramped up capacity deployment and capital operations, building competitive barriers through technological upgrades and industry chain extensions. GEM possesses a complete "battery recycling—battery cascade reuse—raw material remanufacturing—material remanufacturing—battery reassembly" full life cycle value chain, with industry-leading scale advantages. It operates 9 major lithium battery recycling bases globally, and its lithium battery recycling volume has accounted for 10% of China's total retired battery volume for consecutive years, ranking first nationwide. As early-stage NEVs gradually retire, the lithium battery recycling industry will accelerate over the next 3 to 5 years, with an annualized growth rate exceeding 50%—a market poised for tenfold growth in 5 years. The industry consensus is that this transformation, jointly driven by price, demand, and policy, is propelling the lithium battery recycling industry from extensive development toward a refined, standardized, and globalized development stage.

To strengthen the supervision and management of the recycling and utilization of waste power batteries from NEVs and related activities, and to promote the scientific and standardized recycling and utilization of waste power batteries, five departments, including the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the Ministry of Ecology and Environment, the Ministry of Transport, the Ministry of Commerce, and the State Administration for Market Regulation, jointly issued the "Notice on Launching a Joint Law Enforcement Special Campaign to Regulate the Recycling and Utilization of Waste Power Batteries" today. To implement the work deployment of the "Action Plan" and in accordance with the requirements of the joint departmental regulation "Interim Measures for the Recycling and Comprehensive Utilization Management of Waste Power Batteries from NEVs," the "Notice" focuses on the prominent issues facing the recycling and utilization of waste power batteries from NEVs, takes the improvement of collaborative regulatory mechanisms as a key approach, strengthens full-chain supervision, and represents an important measure to regulate industry order.

[SMM Tin Morning Brief: The Most-Traded SHFE Tin Contract Fell Below the 390,000 Yuan Mark in Night Session, Spot Market Transactions Expected to Recover]

As the global energy transition accelerates, the NEV industry is booming at an unprecedented pace. Behind this green transformation, battery recycling—a critical link tied to resource security, environmental protection, and the sustainable development of industry—has quietly emerged as a new industry worth hundreds of billions. From an “environmental burden” to an “urban mine,” the battery recycling industry is demonstrating unprecedentedly broad prospects. Strong policy support has laid a solid foundation for the development of the battery recycling industry. In February 2025, the Executive Meeting of the State Council reviewed and approved the Action Plan for Improving the Recycling System for NEV Power Batteries, explicitly proposing the improvement of the standards system to achieve standardized, safe, and efficient recycling and utilization of power batteries. More importantly, the Interim Measures for the Administration of the Recycling and Comprehensive Utilization of Retired NEV Power Batteries, which will officially take effect on April 1, 2026, marks a new stage in the law-based and standardized management of power battery recycling and utilization in China. The core provisions of this new regulation, jointly issued by six departments including the MIIT, the National Development and Reform Commission, and the Ministry of Ecology and Environment, include: Establishing a digital ID system: generating a unique and dynamic digital ID for each power battery pack to enable full life cycle flow monitoring and information-based traceability Implementing the “vehicle-battery integrated retirement” system: retired NEVs must include their power batteries to prevent battery loss Clarifying the responsibilities of all parties: power battery enterprises and NEV producers must establish recycling service outlets and assume fallback responsibility for collection Defining red lines for comprehensive utilization: enterprises engaged in the comprehensive utilization of retired power batteries must complete the relevant procedures in accordance with the law, and such batteries are prohibited from being used in restricted fields such as e-bikes Battery recycling is not only an industry, but also a green revolution concerning the sustainable development of humanity. From policy support to technological innovation, and from resource security to industrial upgrading, China’s battery recycling industry is advancing at an unprecedented speed and with unprecedented intensity. As the 14th Five-Year Plan is implemented in greater depth and the “dual carbon” goals continue to advance, this “urban mine” of battery recycling will release enormous economic, environmental, and social value, contributing China’s wisdom and solutions to the global energy transition and the development of the circular economy.

As April 1, 2026 approaches, China’s battery recycling industry is at a historic turning point. The Interim Measures for the Administration of Recycling and Comprehensive Utilization of Retired NEV Power Batteries (hereinafter the “Measures”), jointly issued by six ministries including the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), and the Ministry of Ecology and Environment, is expected to officially take effect. Hailed as the “strictest in history,” the new regulation marks the industry’s formal entry into an era of stringent, law-based and standardized supervision. China’s NEV sector has been experiencing explosive growth. In 2025, China’s NEV production and sales reached 16.626 million units and 16.49 million units, up 29% and 28.2% YoY, respectively, with NEV new-vehicle sales accounting for 47.9% of total new-vehicle sales. As the capacity of power batteries in previously sold and deployed NEVs continues to degrade, China is about to enter a phase of large-scale power-battery retirements. However, behind the enormous market potential lie daunting challenges. For a long time, the power-battery recycling industry has been characterized by a landscape that is “small, scattered, and disorderly.” A large number of unlicensed small workshops, relying on cost advantages, bid high to seize supply sources of retired batteries, resulting in the distorted phenomenon where “formal players cannot get enough, while small workshops are everywhere.” With the rollout and implementation of the new regulation, the power-battery recycling industry is set to undergo profound changes. Ming Yuebin, Vice President of Battery Technology Co., Ltd., noted: “By strengthening oversight over the recycling and post-processing stages, the new Measures will gradually phase out enterprises that fail to meet environmental protection and safety requirements, and promote the industry’s long-term, healthy development.” In the long run, healthy industry development will also require sustained efforts in technological innovation and public participation. Enterprises need to continuously enhance the intelligentization of recycling and processing, reducing costs and improving efficiency through technological upgrades. Consumers should also strengthen their sense of responsibility, proactively hand retired batteries over to formal channels, and resist the temptation of ‘high-price recycling.’ April 1, 2026 is not only the effective date of a regulation; it is also the watershed moment for China’s battery recycling industry as it shifts from unchecked growth to standardized development. As the era of “formal players” arrives, the 100-billion-yuan-scale power-battery recycling market is set to undergo a value re-rating, laying a solid foundation for the sustainable development of the NEV industry.

Guotai Environmental Protection convened the 15th meeting of the 4th Board of Directors, reviewing and approving the "Proposal on Amending the Business Scope, Revising the , and Handling Industrial and Commercial Registration Changes." This adjustment not only represents a simple business expansion but also marks a key transformation of this traditional environmental protection enterprise into the field of new energy circular economy.

On February 24, Guotai Environmental Protection held its 15th meeting of the 4th Board of Directors, reviewing and approving the "Proposal on Amending the Business Scope, Revising the , and Handling Industrial and Commercial Registration Changes." This adjustment not only represents a simple business expansion but also marks a critical transformation of this traditional environmental protection enterprise into the field of new energy circular economy—adding businesses such as lithium-ion battery recycling, PV equipment leasing, and battery manufacturing, officially entering the rapidly growing closed-loop of the new energy industry chain. Guotai Environmental Protection's strategic adjustment is not accidental. In recent years, China's new energy vehicle industry has maintained rapid growth. Data shows that in 2025, China's NEV production and sales both achieved nearly 30% growth, with NEVs accounting for 47.9% of new vehicle sales. As early power batteries gradually enter their retirement phase, a massive backend market is accelerating its formation. Power battery recycling involves the collection, processing, and reuse of waste power batteries, aiming to promote resource circulation, protect the ecological environment, and drive long-term industry development. Currently, the standardized recycling rate for waste power batteries in China remains below 50%, with a large number of waste batteries flowing into informal channels such as "small workshops," posing environmental risks and causing the waste of strategic resources. Standardized recycling and utilization of retired power batteries are of great significance for reducing environmental pollution, ensuring the security of national critical metal resources, promoting industrial greening, and enhancing international competitiveness. In February 2025, the State Council Executive Meeting reviewed and passed the "Action Plan for Improving the NEV Power Battery Recycling and Utilization System," explicitly proposing to improve the standard system and achieve standardized, safe, and efficient recycling and utilization of power batteries. Shortly thereafter, six departments including the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), and the Ministry of Ecology and Environment jointly issued the "Interim Measures for the Recycling and Comprehensive Utilization of Waste Power Batteries from New Energy Vehicles," which will take effect on April 1, 2026. This upcoming regulation is regarded by the industry as a "watershed" for the sector. The "Management Measures" establish a "full life cycle" supervision system for power batteries, create a national traceability information platform for NEV power batteries, promote the monitoring of power battery flows and information traceability throughout their life cycle, and clarify the recycling responsibilities of power battery enterprises and NEV producers. This means that power battery recycling will shift from the past "guerrilla" operations to an era of "regular army" engagement. The introduction of the new regulation sets a clear "code of conduct" for the industry, aiming to resolve the structural contradiction between the "segmented" layout of the industry chain and the "full life cycle" management requirements, and to build a closed-loop chain of "production—use—recycling—regeneration."