SMM, March 20: Imports: According to data from the General Administration of Customs, China’s primary aluminum imports were about 189,000 mt in January, down 0.1% MoM and up 17.1% YoY; in February, China’s primary aluminum imports were about 202,000 mt, up 6.6% MoM and up 0.7% YoY. In January-February 2026, China’s cumulative primary aluminum imports totaled about 391,000 mt, up 8.0% YoY. Exports: According to data from the General Administration of Customs, China’s primary aluminum exports were about 13,000 mt in January, down 64.6% MoM and up 56.6% YoY; in February, China’s primary aluminum exports were about 10,000 mt, down 24.6% MoM and up 187.9% YoY. In January-February, cumulative primary aluminum exports totaled about 23,000 mt, up about 94.8% YoY. Net imports: According to data from the General Administration of Customs, China’s net primary aluminum imports were 176,000 mt in January, up 15.9% MoM and up 14.9% YoY; in February, China’s net primary aluminum imports were 192,000 mt, up 9.0% MoM and down 2.6% YoY. In January-February, China’s cumulative net primary aluminum imports were about 367,000 mt, up 5.0% YoY. (The above import and export data are based on HS codes 76011090 and 76011010.) Although China’s net primary aluminum imports maintained positive growth in January-February 2026, expectations of a sharp rise in regional aluminum premiums outside China will challenge this situation. As of March 20, SMM’s Japan MJP spot premiums for aluminum ingot stood at $255/mt, up 45.7% from month-end February. Currently, some market participants were quoting Japan MJP CIF premiums for Q2 at around $350-353/mt, up about 80% from $195/mt in Q1; the US Midwest DDP aluminum premium stood at 105.25¢/lb, equivalent to $2,110/mt. As of March 13, Europe’s P1020A aluminum ingot duty-paid premiums stood at $470/mt, up about 27.0% from month-end February, while Europe’s P1020A aluminum ingot duty-unpaid premiums stood at $375/mt, up 27.2% from month-end February. The sharp rise in regional aluminum premiums outside China is expected to divert some aluminum originally planned to flow into China, and China’s net aluminum imports are expected to decline YoY in 2026. The reason for this phenomenon lies in expectations of a contraction in aluminum supply outside China caused by reduced aluminum supply in the Middle East. As of March 20, Qatar Aluminum announced that it would maintain a 60% operating rate, involving 260,000 mt of shut capacity; Bahrain Aluminum announced the shutdown of Lines 1-3, involving about 310,000 mt of capacity. In total, 570,000 mt of aluminum capacity in the Middle East has been affected. Iran is at the center of the conflict, and the stability of its production faces severe challenges. In addition, some raw and auxiliary materials in the Middle East rely on imports, and the geopolitical conflict in the region has affected passage through the Strait of Hormuz, to some extent undermining raw material supply stability at certain aluminum plants. At present, aluminum plants in Saudi Arabia and Turkey have domestic upstream bauxite and alumina support and can achieve self-sufficiency, with room for exports; Bahrain Aluminum and Qatar Aluminum rely entirely on imported alumina, while the UAE has 2.5 million mt of alumina capacity, but its bauxite relies 100% on imports. Although Oman’s aluminum plants also depend on imported raw materials, their geographic location is outside the Strait of Hormuz, so the level of risk is relatively low. If transport routes remain closed and no new routes can be opened, aluminum production in the Middle East is expected to be significantly affected. However, according to the latest foreign media reports, Bahrain Aluminum is exporting 40-60% of its aluminum ingots through Saudi Arabia’s Port of Jeddah, with an overland transport distance of 1,400 kilometers, and UAE’s Emirates Global Aluminium is attempting to import alumina raw materials through ports in Oman. If new transport routes are opened, the production reduction risk at aluminum plants in the Middle East is expected to decline markedly. Going forward, continued attention should be paid to production developments at aluminum plants in the Middle East, transport route conditions, and trends in LME aluminum inventory.

Recycling Today reports that nonferrous markets began 2026 with notable volatility, with copper prices nearing record highs before moderating, while aluminum and zinc also saw fluctuating gains and retreats. In the copper scrap segment, global demand remains healthy despite softer U.S. demand. A Midwest scrap processor noted that high-grade scrap such as No. 1 bare bright copper fetched stronger prices, leading to unprecedented export volumes to India, Japan, and South Korea. Domestic consumers may soon recognize tighter apparent supply conditions.

On June 3 local time, the White House issued a statement announcing that US President Trump would raise tariffs on imported steel, aluminum, and their derivative products from 25% to 50%, effective at 00:01 Eastern Time on June 4, 2025.

As voices from aluminium associations across US trade-allied nations grow louder, one consensus is becoming clear that the United States’ decision to increase tariffs on aluminium imports to 50 per cent is unlikely to benefit its global partners.

In the days following the US President's decision to double the import tariffs on steel and aluminum from 25% to 50%, non-ferrous metal market participants expressed various concerns about fundamental changes at an industry event held from June 2 to 5.

Analysts from Morgan Stanley stated that US President Trump's decision to double aluminum import tariffs to 50% could drive up aluminum prices and the costs for its users.

SMM Alumina Morning Comment on June 6 Futures Market: Overnight, the most-traded alumina 2509 futures contract opened at 2,945 yuan/mt, with a high of 2,970 yuan/mt, a low of 2,928 yuan/mt, and closed at 2,953 yuan/mt, down 17 yuan/mt or 0.56% from the previous settlement. The open interest stood at 309,000 lots. Ore Market: As of June 5, the SMM Import Bauxite Index was reported at $74.94/mt, up $0.23/mt from the previous trading day. The SMM Guinea Bauxite CIF average price was reported at $75/mt, up $1/mt from the previous trading day. The SMM Australia Low-Temperature Bauxite CIF average price was reported at $70/mt, unchanged from the previous trading day. The SMM Australia High-Temperature Bauxite CIF average price was reported at $65/mt, unchanged from the previous trading day. Industry Updates: Alumina Weekly Production Update: According to SMM data, as of Thursday this week, the total installed capacity of metallurgical-grade alumina in China was 110.82 million mt/year, with a total operating capacity of 87.27 million mt/year. The national alumina weekly operating rate rebounded by 0.54 percentage points WoW to 78.75%, mainly due to the resumption of production at some alumina facilities that had undergone maintenance or production cuts earlier. Alumina Port Inventories: According to SMM statistics on June 5, the total alumina inventories at domestic ports were 57,000 mt, up 32,000 mt from the previous week. According to foreign media reports, the premium paid by US consumers for aluminum purchases in the spot market hit a record high of 60¢ per pound or $1,323 per tonne on Thursday, following the US's imposition of higher tariffs on imported aluminum. Since November last year, the Midwest aluminum premium in the US has surged nearly 190%. When US consumers purchase aluminum in the spot market, they typically pay the London Metal Exchange (LME) benchmark price plus a premium to cover costs including freight and taxes. The US is highly dependent on aluminum imports, with the vast majority coming from Canada. The US aluminum market has reached a record high. Spot-Futures Price Spread Report: According to SMM data, on June 5, the SMM Alumina Index premium against the latest transaction price of the most-traded contract at 11:30 was 332.73 yuan/mt. Warrant Report: On June 5, the total registered alumina warrants decreased by 6,016 mt from the previous trading day to 96,400 mt. The total registered alumina warrants in the Shandong region remained unchanged from the previous trading day at 601 mt. The total registered alumina warrants in the Henan region remained unchanged from the previous trading day at 300 mt. The total registered alumina warrants in the Guangxi region remained unchanged from the previous trading day at 3,001 mt. The total registered alumina warrants in the Gansu region remained unchanged from the previous trading day at 0 mt. The total registered alumina warrants in the Xinjiang region decreased by 6,016 mt from the previous trading day to 92,500 mt. Overseas Market: As of June 5, 2025, the FOB Western Australia alumina price was $370/mt, with an ocean freight rate of $21.85/mt. The USD/CNY selling rate hovered around 7.20. This price translates to approximately 3,268 yuan/mt in terms of the external selling price at major domestic ports, which is 5 yuan/mt lower than the domestic alumina price. The alumina import window remained open. Summary: This week, the operating capacity of alumina rebounded by 600,000 mt/year to 87.27 million mt/year. It is understood that some imported alumina has arrived at Chinese ports. With supply recovering and no significant changes in demand, the total alumina inventory at aluminum smelters increased by 19,000 mt to 2.63 million mt this week. Recently, spot alumina transactions have turned sluggish, with a strong wait-and-see sentiment in the market, and spot prices have stopped rising. On Thursday, news emerged of low-price alumina tenders and purchases by aluminum smelters, driving the futures market to pull back. In the short term, the alumina fundamentals may shift towards a relatively loose pattern, with alumina prices expected to be in the doldrums. Subsequent attention should be paid to changes in the capacity of domestic alumina enterprises and the supply of imported alumina. [The information provided is for reference only. This article does not constitute direct advice for investment research and decision-making. Clients should make prudent decisions and should not rely on this information to replace their own independent judgment. Any decisions made by clients are not related to SMM.]

According to foreign media reports, the premium paid by US consumers for aluminum purchased in the spot market hit a record high of 60¢ per pound or $1,323 per mt on Thursday, following the US's imposition of higher tariffs on imported aluminum. Since November last year, the Midwest aluminum premium in the US has surged by nearly 190%. When US consumers purchase aluminum in the spot market, they typically pay the London Metal Exchange (LME) benchmark price plus a premium to cover costs, including freight and taxes. The US is highly dependent on aluminum imports, with the vast majority coming from Canada. The US aluminum market has reached a record high.

[Honda to Strengthen Hybrid Vehicle Production in the US] Honda Motor Co., Ltd. announced on May 23 that it would strengthen hybrid vehicle (HV) production at its plant in Indiana, located in the Midwestern US. The plant currently produces HV models and gasoline-powered vehicles of the most-traded car models, the "Civic" and the SUV "CR-V". According to Honda, approximately 247,000 vehicles were produced in 2024, with 60% being HV models. The company plans to increase the proportion of HV models in response to market demand.

On April 18th, at the AICE 2025 SMM (20th) Aluminum Industry Conference & Aluminum Industry Expo - Global Secondary Aluminum Industry Development Forum , hosted by SMM Information & Technology Co., Ltd. (SMM), SMM Metal Exchange Center, and Shandong Aisi Information Technology Co., Ltd., and co-organized by Zhongyifeng Jinyi (Suzhou) Technology Co., Ltd. and Lezhi County Qianrun Investment Promotion Service Co., Ltd., WENCESLAO MANZANO HERNANDEZ, President of DIMEXA HOLDINGS PTE. LTD., provided an interpretation of Mexico's export policies for secondary metals. Mexico: A Key Trading Partner Mexico is a crucial participant in the global economy, with a Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of $1.79 trillion, making it the world's 12th largest economy. In 2024, Mexico's total trade volume with the US reached $843 billion, becoming the largest trading partner of the US, surpassing Canada and China. In the same year, Mexico's total trade volume with China reached $100 billion. Mexico has the largest number of free trade agreements, with 13 agreements covering at least 50 countries. Main Products Exported by Mexico Automobiles and automotive parts, electronics and electrical equipment, machinery and industrial equipment, mineral fuels and oil, and agricultural products, among others. US-Mexico Trade Relations In 2018, the US imposed tariffs under "Section 232" on steel (with a 25% tariff) and aluminum (with a 10% tariff) imported from multiple countries, including Mexico. ・This raised concerns about damage to the integrated supply chain, particularly in the automotive industry. ・In 2019, the US agreed to remove the "Section 232" tariffs on steel and aluminum imported from Mexico and Canada. ・Part of the purpose of this decision was to facilitate the ratification of the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA). Aluminum Scrap Market ・Mexico exports aluminum scrap to multiple destinations worldwide. ・Single-alloy scrap is mainly exported to the US, Brazil, and Europe. For example, scrap of grades 5052, 6,016, 5,081, 3003, etc. ・Most casting alloys are consumed within Mexico's domestic automotive industry, with only a small amount exported. For example, casting alloys of grades A380, AC12, etc. ・Some other mixed-grade aluminum scrap is exported to Asia. For example, Taint Tabor, aluminum radiators. Copper Scrap Market ・China is by far the largest consumer of copper scrap. ・There is also domestic demand in the US for some higher-grade copper scrap. ・Mexico does not import copper scrap from the US; if copper scrap is imported from the US to Mexico, a 16% VAT is required. Opportunities for Mexico in the Non-Ferrous Metals Market ・Production Growth and Rising Demand. Mexico's expanding manufacturing sector (automotive, electronics) drives production and demand for recycled non-ferrous metals. ・Proximity to the US: Close trade ties with the US facilitate scrap metal trade. ・Increased Recycling Awareness: Growing concerns over environmental issues drive recycling efforts. ・Investment in Advanced Recycling Technologies: In Mexico, there is a growing demand and opportunity to invest in modern technologies for sorting, processing, and refining non-ferrous metal scrap. ・Development of Specialized Recycling Processes: With the growth of industries such as electronics and renewable energy in Mexico, there are opportunities to develop specialized recycling processes for specific non-ferrous metals. For example, recycling of batteries and electronic waste. Challenges for Mexico in the Non-Ferrous Metals Market ・Market Volatility: Similar to global commodities, prices of non-ferrous metals can be volatile, affecting profitability. The Mexican market is guided by the London Metal Exchange but is also influenced by the Chicago Metal Exchange and Midwest Premium in the US. ・Logistics and Infrastructure: Mexico's domestic infrastructure varies, and there are logistical bottlenecks that complicate the collection, processing, and transportation of scrap. ・Regulatory Issues: Evolving or unclear regulations regarding scrap handling, import/export, and environmental compliance can create uncertainty and increase operational costs. ・Quality and Sorting: Ensuring scrap quality and proper sorting is challenging, especially in finding qualified labor. ・Competition: The market may face competition from both domestic and overseas participants, including established recycling companies and the informal sector. ・Economic Uncertainty: Mexico's overall economic conditions, including currency fluctuations and potential economic slowdowns, may affect demand and investment in the industry. ・Safety Concerns: In some regions, safety issues and organized crime may pose risks to companies involved in the collection and transportation of valuable non-ferrous metals. Importance of Establishing Partnerships ・Navigating Regulations and Bureaucracy: Mexico's regulatory environment is complex. Local partners are often more familiar with the rules, licensing requirements, and procedures, which can help streamline business operations and ensure compliance. • Establishing a Local Network: Building partnerships can provide connections to existing networks of suppliers, buyers, and other industry participants. This is crucial for sourcing scrap, selling processed metals, and establishing solid business relationships. DIMEXA Dimexa is a leading company in Mexico specializing in the management of industrial and post-consumer non-ferrous metal scrap. With 40 years of experience in the market, Dimexa currently sells 300,000 mt of non-ferrous metal scrap annually. • Scrap Metal Management: Dimexa offers comprehensive services, including the collection, processing, and sale of scrap. • National Presence: Dimexa operates 17 scrap recycling yards across Mexico. • Logistics Capabilities: Dimexa has a large fleet of vehicles and containers for efficient collection and delivery of materials. It currently handles an average of 1,000 containers per month. • Focus on Compliance: The company emphasizes adherence to environmental regulations and holds all necessary permits to operate across Mexico. • Market Reach: Dimexa has over 35 years of experience selling to the Chinese market and other international markets. 》Click to view the special report on AICE 2025 SMM (20th) Aluminum Conference & Aluminum Industry Expo