This week, rare earth oxide and metal prices outside China remained largely stable amid sluggish trading, while price fluctuations in China had not yet been transmitted. Industrial developments were intensive: India’s Mecwin teamed up with Germany’s Fraunhofer to lay out the entire NdFeB industry chain; Sweden approved a 25-year lease for the North Kärr rare earth mine, and Namibia’s Kieshoehe project verified deep potential. Iluka obtained an Australian government loan to advance the Eneabba refinery, and ULVAC, driven by surging demand in Europe and the United States, planned to build a new melting furnace production line in Japan. U.S. and Australian enterprises achieved breakthroughs in high-purity rare earth refining and hard disk recycling technologies, while Canada and Japan actively promoted cooperation on the critical minerals supply chain.

[SMM Rare Earth Daily Review: Rare Earth Prices Generally Rise, Market Inquiry and Transaction Activity Remains Weak] On the whole, influenced by the noticeably improved market trading activity yesterday, low-priced sources of rare earth materials tightened overall, and suppliers have raised their quotes one after another. However, downstream inquiry activity has decreased to some extent, and actual transaction performance in the market has been lackluster. In the near term, affected by the tightening of low-priced sources in the market, Pr-Nd product prices will likely drift higher.

[Top-tier players' purchases drive Pr-Nd price surge, boosting trading activity in rare earth market] Yesterday, scrap market prices continued their upward trend, mainly due to sustained increases in oxide price quotations, leading recycling enterprises to raise their external purchase quotes further. However, with the implementation of the new national standard for rare earth recycling, suppliers adopted a wait-and-see approach to shipments, making procurement more difficult for recycling enterprises.

[Expectations for US Fed Interest Rate Hikes Delayed, Short-Term Weakness in Aluminum Prices Hard to Break] In China, the proportion of liquid aluminum continued to rise, and warehouse withdrawals of aluminum ingots hit a four-year high in the past week. The further acceleration of the destocking pace has been the biggest highlight recently, but the absolute inventory level remains in a high range. Recently, with the continued narrowing of the geopolitical risk premium coupled with expectations for new project startups outside China, macro headwinds still dominate. LME aluminum is under significant pressure in the short term, and domestic aluminum prices are expected to follow LME aluminum and remain in the doldrums.

[Silicon Metal Market Stalemate, Prices Consolidate at Lows]: On the supply side, silicon metal production in June stood at 358,400 mt, up 8% MoM. In July, production ramp-up in Sichuan and Yunnan will become the main driver of supply growth, with July production expected to increase 9% MoM. The fundamental logic of both supply and demand growth and relatively heavy supply pressure remains unchanged. With no news disturbances from policy or macro liquidity, and in the absence of unexpected events, silicon metal prices continue to consolidate at lows.

[SMM Rare Earth Weekly Review: Pr-Nd Prices Surge, Medium-Heavy Rare Earth Market Prices Relatively Stable] This week, Pr-Nd oxide prices held up well overall. Driven by large-scale purchases and the arrival of the peak season, bullish sentiment in the market strengthened significantly. Downstream procurement inquiries also improved in activity, and suppliers raised their quoted prices. As of today, the price of Pr-Nd oxide was raised to 750,000-755,000 yuan/mt.

SMM July 2 News: Today the SHFE aluminum 2608 contract opened at 22,450 yuan/mt, reached a high of 22,595 yuan/mt, a low of 22,375 yuan/mt, and closed at 22,400 yuan/mt, down 85 yuan/mt from the previous trading day, a decline of 0.38%. Trading volume was 201,300 lots, open interest 280,800 lots, with a daily position change of -6,149 lots. Price remained well below MA5 (22,595), MA10 (23,146.5), MA30 (23,940.83), and MA60 (24,381.92), and the moving average system maintained a standard bearish alignment, with no reversal in the downtrend. On the MACD indicator, DIFF (-504.66) and DEA (-357.65) continued to diverge downward, and the histogram expanded to -294.03, signaling intensifying bearish momentum. Volume of 201,300 lots was below MA5 volume (279,600 lots), marking three consecutive days of contraction, with market trading becoming sluggish. The daily position change of -6,149 lots indicated continued fund outflows. SMM Commentary: Indirect technical talks between the US and Iran made progress, with discussions centering on fund repatriation and strait security. Consultations on the nuclear issue are about to begin. The geopolitical risk premium continued to narrow, while disputes over management rights of the Strait of Hormuz persisted, leaving uncertainty over the resumption of navigation through the strait. The Fed’s hawkish pivot boosted the US dollar index, pressuring nonferrous metal prices. Under macro headwinds, aluminum prices in and outside China fell. In the short term, bearish factors dominated, and aluminum prices were expected to remain in the doldrums. Today the alumina 2609 contract opened at 2,781 yuan/mt, reached a high of 2,803 yuan/mt, a low of 2,733 yuan/mt, and closed at 2,734 yuan/mt, down 52 yuan/mt from the previous trading day, a decline of 1.87%. Trading volume was 245,200 lots, open interest 304,500 lots, with a daily position change of +18,216 lots. Price had completely fallen below MA5 (2,786), MA10 (2,828.4), MA30 (2,885.07), and MA60 (2,820.37), with the moving averages spreading in a bearish alignment and the downtrend accelerating. On the MACD, DIFF (-13.64) turned negative and fell below DEA (2.59), and the histogram expanded to -32.46, indicating a clear strengthening of bearish momentum. Volume of 245,200 lots exceeded MA5 volume (211,900 lots), with the heavy-volume decline accompanied by a daily inflow of 18,216 lots, showing strong willingness by bears to actively add positions and press prices lower. SMM Commentary: According to SMM statistics, as of last Thursday, total domestic alumina inventory edged down WoW. Looking at the inventory structure, raw material inventory at aluminum smelters continued to destock slightly, but restocking willingness was weak due to significant recent price fluctuations and market divergence on the outlook, with end-users mainly on the sidelines. In-factory inventory at alumina refineries decreased, mainly affected by phased maintenance at some plants in the north, which prioritized consuming in-factory inventory amid production constraints. This impact is expected to gradually fade after maintenance ends next week. Port inventory continued to build up, with high port arrivals from outside China supplementing spot supply with imported resources and adding market pressure. Overall, the oversupply pattern remained unchanged. Prior to the implementation of Guinea’s bauxite quota policy, the market lacked clear bullish drivers. Next week, inventory is expected to shift from weak destocking to moderate buildup, with the supply-demand balance remaining loose and alumina prices continuing to be in the doldrums. [The information provided is for reference only. This article does not constitute direct advice for investment research decisions. Clients should make decisions prudently and not use this as a substitute for their own independent judgment. Any decisions made by clients are unrelated to Shanghai Metals Market.]

[Pr-Nd Oxide Quotations Raised, High-Price Transactions in Rare Earth Market Remain Difficult] Yesterday, scrap market prices edged up slightly, mainly influenced by the slight increase in oxide quotations. Recycling enterprises raised their external purchase quotations in tandem, but downstream suppliers showed strong overall wait-and-see sentiment, and actual market transactions were mediocre.

[Geopolitical Risk Premium Continues to Narrow, Aluminum Prices in the Doldrums] Progress has been made in indirect technical talks between the US and Iran, with discussions on fund repatriation and Strait security. Consultations on the nuclear issue are about to begin. The geopolitical risk premium continues to narrow. The dispute over management rights of the Strait of Hormuz persists, and uncertainty remains over the resumption of Strait navigation. The Federal Reserve's hawkish pivot boosted the US dollar index, weighing on nonferrous metal prices. Under macro headwinds, aluminum prices fell in and outside China. In the short term, bearish factors dominate, and aluminum prices are expected to stay in the doldrums.

On July 1, the stock price of Xingye Silver&Tin rose. As of the close on July 1, Xingye Silver&Tin gained 0.24% to 33.04 yuan per share. In terms of news: On June 30, Xingye Silver&Tin announced that its wholly-owned subsidiary, Xingye Gold (Hong Kong) Mining Co., Ltd., through its subsidiary, Atlantic Tin Pte. Ltd., currently holds 3,180,525 shares (75% equity) of Atlas Tin SAS (hereinafter referred to as the “Target Company”), making it the controlling shareholder of the Target Company. To fully control the project resources and rights, maximize the release of value from the tin ore assets, and enhance core competitiveness and sustainable operations, the company intends to acquire, through a newly established subsidiary outside China (not yet established, subject to final registration of equity transfer), the aggregate 1,060,175 shares (the remaining 25% equity) of the Target Company held by Toyota Tsusho Corporation and Nittetsu Mining Co., Ltd. (collectively, the “Counterparties”). As the new overseas subsidiary has not yet been incorporated, the company and its wholly-owned subsidiary Xingye Gold (Hong Kong) will first sign a Share Purchase Agreement with the Counterparties, which stipulates that the acquisition will be completed by an entity designated by the acquirer. On June 30, 2026, the company and Xingye Gold (Hong Kong) completed the signing of the Share Purchase Agreement with the Counterparties. Upon completion of this transaction, the company will indirectly hold 100% equity of the Target Company through its subsidiaries, achieving full ownership. Details of the acquisition are as follows: 1. The company will designate a newly established overseas subsidiary (not yet established, subject to final registration of equity transfer) as the transferee to acquire 848,139 shares (20% equity) of the Target Company held by Toyota Tsusho Corporation for a consideration of $15,300,000, funded by its own funds or self-raised funds. 2. Xingye Gold (Hong Kong), a wholly-owned subsidiary, will designate a newly established overseas subsidiary (not yet established, subject to final registration) as the transferee to acquire 212,036 shares (5% equity) of the Target Company held by Nittetsu Mining Co., Ltd. for a consideration of $7,813,570, funded by its own funds or self-raised funds. These two transactions together will acquire a total of 1,060,175 shares, representing 25% equity of the Target Company, for an aggregate consideration of $23,113,570. The transaction is accompanied by the signing of a Termination and Release Agreement, which will fully terminate the original Shareholders' Agreement of the Target Company upon completion of the closing, clarifying the historical rights and obligations of all parties. Regarding the mining rights of the transaction target, Xingye Silver&Tin introduced that the Target Company holds the Achmmach tin mine project, with the following details: 1. Basic Information of Mining Rights 2. Achmmach Tin Ore Resources In May 2026, Beijing SRK Resource Technology Co., Ltd. prepared the “Morocco Achmmach Project Competent Person's Report” in accordance with the JORC Code. As of December 31, 2025, with an underground mining tin cut-off grade of 0.27%, the mineral resources of the Achmmach project are as follows: The acquisition of all remaining equity held by the Japanese shareholder aims to achieve full ownership of the target company, terminate the original shareholder agreement, streamline the governance structure and enhance decision-making efficiency, secure full control of project resource rights and interests, maximize the release of value from the tin ore assets, strengthen synergy between operations in and outside China, and align with the company's global resource deployment strategy. Xingye Silver&Tin also outlined the impact of this transaction on the company: the target company has been included in the consolidated financial statements, and this acquisition of minority equity will not have a material impact on the company's current-period profit. In the future, all net profit of the target company will be attributable to shareholders of the publicly listed firm, continuously enhancing earnings attributable to parent company shareholders. The company has ample liquidity reserves, and there is no obstacle to paying the transaction consideration, which will not have a material adverse impact on the liquidity of daily operating funds. Following full ownership, the company can coordinate and advance mine construction and operations, leverage its mining development and management experience, accelerate project implementation, solidify tin resource reserves, and have a positive effect on the company's long-term operating performance. On June 26, Xingye Silver&Tin stated on an interactive platform while responding to investor inquiries that secondary market stock prices are affected by multiple factors such as the macro environment, industry cycles, and market sentiment. The company attaches great importance to secondary market performance, will continue to strengthen investor relations management and market communication, actively carry out information dissemination and market capitalization management, and earnestly safeguard the legitimate rights and interests of all shareholders. On June 26, Xingye Silver&Tin stated on an interactive platform while responding to investor inquiries that, in accordance with the JORC Code, the Competent Person SRK uses only the current Measured and Indicated Mineral Resources as the basis for ore reserve conversion and production scheduling. However, in actual operations, through ongoing production drilling and exploration activities, the company may upgrade a portion of Inferred Mineral Resources and subsequently incorporate them into the actual mine mining and processing plan. Furthermore, the stope shapes generated by SRK using Deswik software through stope optimization may not align with the stope layout adopted in the company's daily production planning. Therefore, the company's future actual production schedule and operational performance may differ from the production schedule and related forecasts presented by SRK. On the performance front: Xingye Silver&Tin disclosed in its Q1 report that from January to March 2026, the company achieved operating revenue of RMB2,129.8691 million, up 85.32% YoY; net profit attributable to shareholders of the listed company was RMB1,337.6722 million, up 257.32% YoY. As of March 31, 2026, the company's total assets amounted to RMB19,688.8316 million, and net assets attributable to shareholders of the listed company were RMB10,825.4666 million. Operating Revenue Composition: For January to March 2026, the operating revenue of the company's main mineral products as a share of total operating revenue was as follows: ore-derived silver revenue was RMB1,410.1104 million (66.21%), ore-derived tin revenue was RMB234.0354 million (10.99%), ore-derived zinc revenue was RMB228.1249 million (10.71%), ore-derived lead revenue was RMB71.8509 million (3.37%), ore-derived antimony revenue was RMB53.1029 million (2.49%), ore-derived gold revenue was RMB51.0181 million (2.40%), ore-derived iron revenue was RMB44.1733 million (2.07%), ore-derived copper revenue was RMB35.6489 million (1.67%), and ore-derived indium revenue was RMB0.5241 million (0.02%). Among these, the combined operating revenue share of ore-derived tin and ore-derived silver reached 77.19%. Xingye Silver&Tin's Q1 report announcement stated: operating profit for the current period increased 238.16% YoY, total profit increased 236.36% YoY, and net profit attributable to owners of the parent company increased 257.32% YoY. The main reasons: During the reporting period, the selling prices of the company's main mineral products such as silver and tin rose compared with the same period last year; Yubang Mining's capacity was gradually released, leading to significant YoY increases in ore-derived silver production and sales volume; and the disposal of a 60% stake in Shuangyuan Nonferrous generated investment income of RMB321 million. Xingye Silver&Tin's 2025 annual report shows that in 2025, the company achieved operating revenue of RMB5,555.2536 million, up 30.09% YoY; total profit of RMB2,096.2370 million, up 18.75% YoY; and net profit attributable to shareholders of the listed company of RMB1,704.2393 million, up 11.40% YoY. Xingye Silver&Tin’s announcement shows: In 2025, the operating revenue of the company's main mineral products as a share of total operating revenue was as follows: ore-derived silver revenue was RMB2,175.7825 million (39.17%), ore-derived tin revenue was RMB1,649.6398 million (29.70%), ore-derived zinc revenue was RMB975.8673 million (17.57%), ore-derived lead revenue was RMB220.9450 million (3.98%), ore-derived iron revenue was RMB180.3799 million (3.25%), ore-derived copper revenue was RMB133.0043 million (2.39%), ore-derived antimony revenue was RMB100.3568 million (1.81%), ore-derived gold revenue was RMB82.3402 million (1.48%), and ore-derived bismuth revenue was RMB16.6744 million (0.30%). Among these, the combined operating revenue share of ore-derived tin and ore-derived silver reached 68.86%. Regarding the company's main business and key performance drivers, Xingye Silver&Tin stated in its 2025 annual report: The company is a large mining group principally engaged in the exploration, mining, and beneficiation of non-ferrous and precious metals. As of the disclosure date of this report, the company has over 20 subsidiaries, including 8 mining companies in operation: Yinman Mining, Qianjinda Mining, Yubang Mining, Rongguan Mining, Xilin Mining, Rongbang Mining, Ruineng Mining, and Bosheng Mining. The Achmmach tin mine under Atlas Tin SAS, a subsidiary of Atlantic Tin, is in the construction phase; Tanghe Shidai Mining is in suspension, while Yitong Mining and Yunnan Xigui are in the exploration phase. Hainan Fund is primarily engaged in equity investment management; Xingye Gold (Hong Kong) is mainly engaged in metals and mining trade and corporate M&A, responsible for expanding into markets outside China and acquiring high-quality overseas mineral resources; Hainan International Trade and Tianjin International Trade are primarily engaged in non-ferrous metal ore product sales and some raw material procurement; Xingye Ruijin primarily undertakes process research, technology R&D, and upgrading in areas such as prospecting, mining and beneficiation, and comprehensive tailings recycling. Tibet Shannan Antimony Gold, Tibet Xinda Mining, and Xing'an League Fuxingtun Mining serve as the company's regional resource integration platforms. During the reporting period, the company successfully acquired an 85% stake in Yubang Mining. According to statistics from the Silver Institute as of the end of 2023, Yubang Mining's single silver mine ranks first in Asia and fifth globally. This acquisition further strengthened the company's resource advantages and laid a solid resource foundation for its sustainable development. At the same time, using its subsidiary Xingye Gold (Hong Kong) as the investment vehicle, the company intensified investments in mineral resources outside China and successfully acquired a 100% stake in Atlantic Tin, a key move in executing its "going global" strategy. Based on the large-scale tin mine classification standard in the "Classification Standard for Resource/Reserve Scale of Mineral Resources" (DZ/T 0400-2022), the Achmmach tin mine owned by Atlantic Tin is now equivalent to five large deposits. Through this consolidation of overseas tin ore resources, the company has further refined its international tin layout and reserved vital strategic resources for long-term development. The company's main performance is derived from its non-ferrous metal mining and beneficiation business. During the reporting period, revenue from this segment accounted for 99.64% of total 2025 operating revenue. The main factors influencing the operating performance of the mining and beneficiation segment include the production and sales volume of major products, market prices, and the costs of the non-ferrous and precious metal mining and beneficiation business. Regarding its operating plan, Xingye Silver&Tin stated in its 2025 annual report: 2026 is the final year of the company's "Second Three-Year" Plan. The board will closely focus on the theme of high-quality development, fully implement established work objectives, continuously deepen the concept of "trust and collaboration," and make an all-out push toward the plan's concluding goals, with a focus on the following: 1. Uphold the bottom lines of safety and environmental protection, using the 2026 "Year of Implementing Safety Management" as a lever to fully enforce safety responsibilities, consolidate the achievements of the "Year of Collective Safety Calm," and enhance risk anticipation and process control to resolutely prevent all types of safety and environmental accidents, achieving safe, stable, and green-low carbon development. 2. Vigorously advance key project construction, strengthen whole-process management of project budgets, schedules, and quality, and coordinate the implementation of projects including the 2.97 million mt capacity upgrade and expansion at Yinman Mining, the 8.25 million mt capacity upgrade and expansion at Yubang Mining, the Morocco project, and the Budun Yingen Mining (trusteeship) project, ensuring they are completed and reach full production on schedule to release capacity benefits. 3. Continue to intensify exploration and resource increase efforts, balance the relationship between production operations and geological exploration, steadily advance exploration at existing mines and surrounding areas, accelerate resource-to-reserve conversion and upgrades, and continuously strengthen the resource foundation. 4. Deepen industrial synergy and resource integration, leverage the core regional advantages of Inner Mongolia, steadily expand overseas resource deployment; adhere to silver and tin as the main business direction, enriching and optimizing the resource portfolio. Solidly advance the subsequent acquisition and integration of Weiling Shares, actively track high-quality mineral project opportunities in and outside China, and enhance overall competitiveness through industrial synergy-driven M&A. 5. Further strengthen institutional enforcement and internal control management, ensure that all systems, processes, and control requirements are effectively implemented, and elevate the company's refined management level; reinforce enforcement capacity to guarantee that production plans, comprehensive budgets, and all work deployments are fully executed, and promote deep integration of corporate culture and operational management. 6. Push forward preparations for a Hong Kong listing at full speed, accelerate the establishment of dual capital market platforms in and outside China, enhance cross-border capital operation capabilities, provide stronger financial support for resource integration and strategy execution, and propel the company's high-quality sustainable development to a new level. A Guosen Securities research report dated April 24 showed: The company's production of major mineral species has steadily increased in recent years. In 2025, growth was driven by both higher silver prices and volumes, while the surge in tin prices offset the impact on production volume. Externally-driven M&A achieved notable results, lifting silver and tin resource reserves to a new level. In 2025, the company completed two major strategic acquisitions. 1) Acquisition of an 85% stake in Yubang Mining: The company acquired the 85% stake for RMB2.388 billion in January 2025. Yubang Mining is the largest single silver mine in Asia and the fifth largest globally. This acquisition increased the company's silver metal resources to 29,800 mt, significantly elevating its industry standing. 2) Acquisition of a 100% stake in Atlantic Tin: The company completed the acquisition in August 2025, gaining its Achmmach tin mine in Morocco. The mine holds tin metal resources of 213,300 mt, equivalent to five large tin deposits, boosting the company's total tin metal resources to 391,600 mt. Risk warnings: risks that the company's resource development progress falls short of expectations; risk of wild swings in metal prices.