SMM May 20 report: According to customs data, nickel ore imports in March 2025 reached 2.9441 million mt, up 1.3788 million mt MoM, representing an increase of 89.81%, and down 28,000 mt YoY, a decrease of 0.95%. Among them, imports of laterite nickel ore amounted to 2.674 million mt, while imports of nickel sulphide ore reached 43,300 mt. In March, 2.4917 million mt of laterite nickel ore were imported from the Philippines, accounting for 85.5% of the total imports for the month. The cumulative imports for 2025 currently stand at 6.5073 million mt, down 3.35% compared to the same period last year.

【Minutes of Morning Meeting on April 30】Affected by the production cuts in Indonesia's MHP and high-grade nickel matte projects, the supply of raw materials is tight, driving the MHP coefficient to continue fluctuating at highs, with insufficient downward momentum. Supply side, some nickel salt smelters have limited quantities available for external sale in the remaining days of May, hence their quotations remain firm. Some nickel salt smelters have expectations for production cuts due to incomplete raw material stocking.

【Minutes of Morning Meeting on April 29】Indonesia's local ore premiums remained stable. The cost line of smelters was generally stable with slight rise, while the decline in spot prices had already broken through the cost line of some smelters. Production drivers and domestic demand weakened simultaneously, with overall production remaining stable. Demand side, stainless steel spot prices were at a low level in recent years, and the immediate raw material costs were high, leading to an inverted situation. In the short term, downstream stainless steel mills had weak demand for raw material procurement, and the center of market transactions continued to move downward. It is expected that high-grade NPI prices will remain under pressure in the short term.

【Summary of Morning Meeting on April 24】Last week, nickel prices continued the volatile pattern seen since mid-April. The average price of SMM1# refined nickel last week was 126,850 yuan/mt, up slightly by 0.5% WoW. LME nickel futures prices fluctuated rangebound around $15,600-15,800/mt. Expectations for US Fed interest rate hikes in June increased, putting pressure on LME nickel prices denominated in US dollars. Risk-averse sentiment among investors was pronounced, and the tug-of-war between longs and shorts in the market intensified.

Indonesian ore used for pyrometallurgy remained stable with a slight upward trend, while the price of ore used for hydrometallurgy may experience a downward adjustment.

【4.25 Morning Meeting Minutes】Indonesia's local ore premiums remained stable, smelter cost lines were generally stable with a slight rise, while spot prices have fallen below the cost lines of some smelters, leading to a simultaneous weakening in production drivers and domestic trade, with overall production remaining stable. Demand side, stainless steel spot prices are at low levels in recent years, and the immediate raw material costs have already shown an inversion.

【4.24 Morning Meeting Minutes】Spot Market: Today, the price of SMM #1 refined nickel was 125,700-128,150 yuan/mt, with an average price of 126,925 yuan/mt, up by 225 yuan/mt compared to the previous trading day. The mainstream spot premium quotation range for Jinchuan #1 nickel was 2,100-2,400 yuan/mt, with an average premium of 2,250 yuan/mt, unchanged from the previous trading day. The premium and discount quotation range for Russian nickel was 200-300 yuan/mt, with an average premium of 250 yuan/mt, up by 100 yuan/mt compared to the previous trading day.

【4.23 Morning Meeting Minutes】LME nickel prices rebounded significantly recently, driven by cost support and the fading of negative sentiment from US policies, which strengthened the support range for nickel salt production costs. Under the effect of cost transmission, the production cost pressure on nickel salt smelters continued to rise. Supply side, the availability of nickel salt for sale from smelters tightened this month, with the overall industry inventory level remaining low. Influenced by the MHP coefficient and its persistently high prices, the sentiment to stand firm on quotes among nickel salt smelters persisted.

【SMM Flash Report】SMM April 22nd Report – At present, most Indonesian mines primarily sell nickel ore with a grade of approximately 1.5%, as lower-grade ore helps extend the operational life of the mine. Consequently, when mines hold either high-grade or low-grade ore, they typically blend it to achieve a medium-grade product or stockpile it in anticipation of a price rebound. While awaiting the implementation of the PNBP policy scheduled for this week, the mining companies remain in a wait-and-see mode. The current primary focus for Indonesian miners is to enhance the efficiency of infrastructure, production, and transportation costs, or to increase output and sales volume to offset any potential decrease in the HPM.

【4.22 Morning Meeting Minutes】Today, the SS futures price showed a fluctuating trend. The adjustment of US tariff policies significantly impacted export-oriented stainless steel enterprises, coupled with the continued weakening of stainless steel cost support, severely dampening market confidence. The anticipated pre-Labour Day holiday stockpiling purchases did not materialize as expected, and market transactions remained sluggish.