Next week, there will be limited macroeconomic data releases, mainly including the final March University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for the US and the final March one-year inflation expectations for the US. At present, key events outside China remain the geopolitical issues in the Middle East, as well as the views of representatives from various countries on global trade development at the upcoming 14th WTO Ministerial Conference (MC14). LME lead, markets outside China will continue to be affected by geopolitical issues, with damage to the economic environment and prolonged logistics cycles dragging LME lead lower consecutively to a near one-year low. However, we need to note that the SHFE/LME price ratio widened, allowing more imported lead to flow into the Chinese market, while spot cargo availability in Southeast Asia tightened and spot premiums rose, with LME Cash-3M contango narrowing to -$41.44/mt. Next week, attention should be paid to the possibility of lead prices probing lower and then rebounding after macro headwinds are fully priced in. LME lead is expected to trade at $1,840-1,930/mt next week. SHFE lead, dragged down by the decline in overseas lead prices, the SHFE/LME price ratio widened and expectations for lead ingot imports increased, especially against the backdrop of China’s lead ingot social inventory standing at a 16-month high, sending lead prices lower in succession. At the same time, we need to note that inventory at domestic smelters remained on a declining trend, losses in secondary lead widened, and the inversion between secondary lead and primary lead prices may become a factor stopping lead prices from falling. In addition, downstream enterprises purchased on dips, and attention should be paid to the subsequent decline in social inventory. If destocking materializes, lead prices may stop falling and rebound. The most-traded SHFE lead contract is expected to trade at 16,100-16,750 yuan/mt next week. Spot price forecast: 16,100-16,550 yuan/mt. For primary lead and secondary lead, supply continued to rise as smelters resumed operations after maintenance. On the demand side, downstream enterprises' short-term restocking on dips may facilitate destocking, but from April to May is the traditional off-season for the lead-acid battery market, and the sustainability of downstream enterprise procurement is limited, so spot lead premiums are expected to struggle to continue rising.

This week, ferrous metals fluctuated at highs, with raw material ore and coking products outperforming steel. Against the backdrop of the escalating conflict in the Middle East, ore and coking products held up well, supported by higher shipping costs and transmission from coal and coke as energy substitutes. In the second half of the week, supply and demand data for hot-rolled coil and rebar were released. The increase in rebar inventory slowed markedly; however, hot-rolled coil demand was lower than the same period last year, and the pace of post-holiday recovery was relatively slow, leaving steel as a whole with limited upward momentum, while futures retreated after rapid rise. In the spot market, trading in the Chinese market was average this week.....

It is learned that as of March 19, in-factory inventory of major delivery brands of primary lead stood at 23,400 mt, down 5,000 mt WoW. Recently, production at primary lead smelters has risen steadily, with relatively ample circulating supply, and most transactions in the spot market were concluded at discounts. During the week, lead prices fell more than expected, and downstream enterprises gradually made purchases at lower prices, further reducing smelters' in-factory inventory. Meanwhile, there were differences in supply between the northern and southern markets. After lead prices fell, smelters in the more south China regions showed significantly stronger sentiment to hold prices firm than those in the northern market. As of March 20, spot order quotations for primary lead were at premiums of 50-100 yuan/mt ex-works against the SMM #1 lead average price.

According to data from the General Administration of Customs, China exported 12,052.46 mt of copper enamelled wire in January 2026, down 1.19% YoY; exports were 10,239.85 mt in February, up 39.64% YoY; cumulative exports in January-February 2026 reached 22,292.31 mt, up 14.14% YoY on a cumulative basis. (HS code 85441100)

By late March, the consumption driven by dealers' customary post-holiday restocking in the lead-acid battery market had been largely released. Meanwhile, end-use consumption in the e-bike and automotive battery markets was generally mediocre, especially as the impact of the new national standard for e-bikes disrupted supporting orders for new vehicles, and some lead-acid battery enterprises only maintained production based on sales. Lead prices fell this week. In the initial stage, downstream enterprises restocked at lower prices based on demand, but after lead prices fell again in the second half of the week, some enterprises became more cautious in procuring raw lead materials.

[Magnesium Prices Stuck in Dilemma: Geopolitical Tensions, Cost Support, and Demand Surge Clash with High Supply] Reviewing the recent magnesium market, magnesium prices repeatedly fluctuated within the 16,600-16,700 range, with a relatively slow pace.

[SMM Titanium Weekly Review: Cost-Driven Titanium Dioxide Price Hikes Took Effect, Market Adjustments Released Upward Signals] This week, the titanium industry chain showed a divergent trend. The titanium concentrate market remained in the doldrums, with imported ore prices falling लगातार under pressure from downstream efforts to push for lower prices and accumulating port inventory. Titanium dioxide, meanwhile, saw the second round of collective price adjustments in mid-month under persistently high sulphuric acid costs. Mainstream enterprises in China raised domestic prices by 500 yuan/mt and export prices by $100/mt, pushing the quoted center up to 14,000-14,500 yuan/mt, though follow-up from domestic demand remained mediocre and foreign trade orders showed clear divergence. The titanium slag market stayed in the doldrums, with prices under pressure amid weak costs and demand. In the titanium sponge market, leading enterprises took the lead in raising prices, with domestic prices up 2,000 yuan/mt and international prices up $300/mt. Supported by restocking demand for titanium materials and low inventory, the market showed a strong willingness to hold prices firm, but downstream processing segments still maintained a wait-and-see stance, and titanium ingot and titanium plate/strip prices only edged up slightly. Overall, cost support and structural demand divergence coexisted, and future price trends still depended on substantive improvement on the supply and demand side.

SMM Nickel, March 20: Macro and Market News: (1) The Party Committee of the People's Bank of China held an enlarged meeting on March 18, which stated that it would continue to effectively implement a moderately accommodative monetary policy, firmly safeguard the stable operation of financial markets such as equities, bonds, and foreign exchange, and advance legislative formulation and amendments including the People's Bank of China Law and the Financial Stability Law. (2) The interest rate futures market priced in only 5.5 basis points of US Fed interest rate cuts this year, and bets on rate hikes began to emerge. Spot Market: On March 20, the SMM price of #1 refined nickel rose by 3,000 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. In terms of spot premiums, the average price of Jinchuan #1 refined nickel was 6,550 yuan/mt, down 200 yuan/mt from the previous trading day, while the mainstream China electrodeposited nickel brands were quoted at -300-400 yuan/mt. Futures Market: The most-traded SHFE nickel contract (2605) staged a sharp rebound, closing the morning session at 134,780 yuan/mt, up 1.50. Yesterday, nickel prices once fell below the 130,000 yuan mark, as trades on expectations of a global economic recession triggered by escalating geopolitical conflict in the Middle East put the metals complex under pressure overall. Nickel prices then took the lead in rebounding sharply, recovering to around 135,000 yuan/mt in the morning session. Short term, sentiment from the macro perspective may continue to dominate the market, and nickel prices may maintain wide swings.

It is worth noting that the overall overseas ternary cathode demand outlook for 2026 remains subdued. The U.S. market has been sluggish since the fourth quarter of last year, prompting many overseas manufacturers to place their hopes on the European market.

[SMM Stainless Steel Daily Review] SS Futures Stopped Falling and Rebounded, Stainless Steel Spot Quotations Rose in Tandem SMM News, March 20: SS futures stopped falling and rebounded. Base metals futures generally recovered, with SS futures showing particularly strong performance and basically recouping this week’s losses, closing at 14,160 yuan/mt by the midday close. In the spot market, driven by the strong rebound in SS futures and coupled with stainless steel mill agents’ efforts to hold prices firm, stainless steel retail quotations also moved higher accordingly; supported by improving market sentiment, both inquiry activity and trading picked up. High-grade NPI prices remained in the doldrums, and the steel mill tender price for high-carbon ferrochrome was announced below market expectations, leaving weak cost support for stainless steel. The most-traded SS futures contract stopped falling and recovered. At 10:15 a.m., SS2605 was quoted at 14,150 yuan/mt, up 220 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Spot premiums for 304/2B in Wuxi were in the 220-420 yuan/mt range. In the spot market, the average price of cold-rolled 201/2B coil in Wuxi rose by 50 yuan/mt; for cold-rolled trimmed 304/2B coil, the average price in Wuxi rose by 100 yuan/mt, and the average price in Foshan rose by 50 yuan/mt; cold-rolled 316L/2B coil in Wuxi was flat; hot-rolled 316L/NO.1 coil quotations in Wuxi were unchanged; cold-rolled 430/2B coil in both Wuxi and Foshan held steady. Entering the traditional September-October peak season, although the stainless steel market ushered in a seasonal recovery window, end-use demand fell short of expectations, downstream wait-and-see sentiment gradually intensified, and procurement only...