[SMM Daily Brief Review of Coking Coal and Coke] Supply side, costs increased further, losses at most coke producers widened, and willingness to push for a coke price hike strengthened, but a coke price hike is expected to be implemented, while coke production remained stable. Demand side, finished steel shipments improved somewhat, steel inventories began to decline, steel mills became more willing to produce, and daily average hot metal production continued to increase, raising acceptance of higher coke prices. In summary, coke fundamentals have turned tighter, and the coke market may remain generally stable with slight rise in the short term, with a coke price hike expected to be implemented.

[SMM Daily Brief Review of Coking Coal and Coke] In terms of supply, with costs remaining high, most coke producers saw wider losses and began to push for a coke price hike, but losses remained within an acceptable range, and coke production stayed stable. On the demand side, steel trading improved somewhat, steel mills became more willing to produce, and daily average hot metal production continued to increase, further boosting rigid demand for coke. Overall, coke fundamentals shifted toward tightness, but steel mills showed only average acceptance of higher coke prices, and the coke market may remain generally stable with slight rise in the short term.

[SMM Magnesium Weekly Review: Magnesium Market Held Up Well, With Cost Support and a Tug-of-War Between Sellers and Buyers Continuing] This week, the overall magnesium industry chain held up well, with prices of all products generally raised. The raw material dolomite market remained stable, with ample supply and steady demand. Magnesium ingot prices consolidated at highs. At the beginning of the week, supported by rising energy costs such as ferrosilicon and coke and tight spot availability, prices jumped by 300 yuan/mt. Subsequently, downstream fear of high prices emerged, transactions failed to keep pace, and prices consolidated at highs. In foreign trade, the center of magnesium ingot FOB quotes moved up to $2,440-2,470/mt. Wait-and-see sentiment outside China remained strong, but influenced by bullish expectations in China, forward orders were gradually locked in. Magnesium powder prices remained firm, with strong cost support. Export data increased YoY, while domestic trade was mainly driven by just-in-time procurement. The benchmark price of magnesium alloy held up well, but the release of new capacity led to increased supply, processing fees stayed in the doldrums, and the market showed a pattern of strong supply and weak demand. Overall, cost support remained the core driver behind magnesium prices fluctuating at highs, while downstream acceptance of high prices was limited, and the market may continue this tug-of-war in the short term.

[SMM Tin Morning Comment: The Most-Traded SHFE Tin Contract Maintained a Fluctuating Trend After Opening Slightly Higher in the Night Session, Spot Market Transactions Showed Mediocre Performance]

This week, prices in the second-life battery market were generally stable, while the market's structural divergence remained evident. Cost side, trends in various raw materials diverged, with overall costs rising slightly. Lithium carbonate prices increased, pushing up battery cell recycling and processing costs; nickel sulphate and cobalt sulphate prices remained stable, easing one-sided cost pressure, and costs edged up mildly over the week. Supply side, supply of popular energy storage battery cell models was tight, with limited spot availability; conventional models were sufficiently available, and no broad-based shortage emerged in the market. Demand side, the gap between energy storage and the EV market remained wide. Demand in the EV sector stayed sluggish, with low purchasing enthusiasm and insufficient support for prices; energy storage demand remained the mainstay of the market, with stable rigid demand. However, prices were currently at high levels, downstream purchasing became more rational, willingness to purchase at high prices declined, and further price increases were currently facing resistance.

Dalian iron ore rose in the morning session today and then slowly pulled back. The most-traded contract I2605 finally closed at 817 yuan/mt, up 0.18% from the previous trading session. Spot prices rose by about 5-8 yuan from the previous trading day. Traders were moderately active in offering quotes, while steel mills maintained a steady procurement pace; overall spot market transactions were limited. Morning gains in futures were driven more by market rumors that core suppliers were about to cut production. According to this week’s SMM data, hot metal production steadily rebounded to 2.4049 million mt this week, up 15,000 mt WoW, indicating strong price support from the demand side. In terms of supply, IOCJ fines and PB lump continued to see relatively large destocking, while Newman fines and MAC fines inventories kept rising, indicating that structural tightness at ports still existed. However, due to elevated prices and mixed market news, with rumors surrounding long-term contract negotiations and production cuts remaining confusing, market risks intensified, and most funds chose to stay on the sidelines. Overall, iron ore prices were more likely to break upward, with relatively solid support at the bottom, and ore prices are expected to fluctuate at highs in the short term.

[Silicon Metal Market Sees Rising Bargaining Sentiment, Focus on Changes in Supply-Side Operating Rates]: This week, the silicon metal market held steady, with the price center of some specifications edging up slightly. As of March 26, SMM east China oxygen-blown #553 silicon was at 9,100-9,300 yuan/mt, up 100 yuan/mt WoW. #441 silicon was at 9,300-9,500 yuan/mt, flat WoW, and #3303 silicon was at 10,200-10,400 yuan/mt, also flat WoW. In the futures market, affected by sentiment and expectations around supply-side factors such as “self-discipline among silicon enterprises and anti-involution,” the most-traded silicon metal futures contract continued to hold up well over the past week, closing at 8,735 yuan/mt late on Thursday with a notable gain. In terms of quotations, silicon enterprises mostly kept shipment quotes stable, with some quotes testing slightly higher; the quote center of trading firms engaging in both spot and futures market rose markedly, and low-priced cargoes disappeared. As downstream acceptance of high prices was limited, high-priced transactions were difficult to conclude in the market.

This week, after the price spread between the TD price on the Gold Exchange and the SHFE April contract narrowed, it remained stable, but the import window for silver ingots closed, and traders’ imported silver ingot arrivals declined. As month-end approached, coupled with weaker precious metals prices and continued downward adjustments in spot premiums, spot transactions were sluggish, and transaction prices were still mainly concluded through negotiated discounts. As of Thursday, in the Shanghai market, the tradable quote for standard silver ingots against TD premiums was lowered to 50-100 yuan/kg. Suppliers of standard silver ingots still largely held prices firm and were reluctant to sell, while downstream buyers only made just-in-time procurement, and were likewise less willing to stockpile on price dips. Trading in the spot market continued to shrink. Inventory side, spot market consumption continued to weaken this week. Although downstream just-in-time procurement generally involved substantial price negotiations, suppliers held inventory and waited due to costs and other reasons, and social inventory of silver ingots posted a slight cumulative increase. In addition, the import window for silver ingots had basically closed, and both supply and demand in China’s spot silver ingot market declined. Social inventory of silver ingots is expected to see limited growth this week.

This week, the Co3O4 market maintained a stable trend, with overall activity still relatively weak. Quotations from top-tier enterprises remained at a high level of around 370,000 yuan/mt, while the tight inventory of cobalt intermediate products continued to provide cost support for prices. However, downstream LCO material plants did not accelerate their procurement pace, mostly conducting small-scale restocking based on orders on hand, and market inquiry sentiment improved slightly WoW. Going forward, the pace of end-use demand will become the key variable determining the procurement intensity of cathode materials. In the short term, the Co3O4 market will still mainly remain stable, awaiting further clarity on the demand side.

This week, the cobalt chloride market atmosphere saw no significant improvement, and the stalemate continued. Top-tier enterprises remained firm in their willingness to hold prices firm, with mainstream quotations continuing to stay above 116,000 yuan/mt and the highest quotations still at 120,000 yuan/mt. However, downstream procurement sentiment remained cautious, and market inquiries showed no recovery. Overall downstream demand was relatively pessimistic, leading Co3O4 enterprises to become more cautious in raw material procurement. Actual transactions were still mainly sporadic restocking, with the transaction center stable at around 115,000 yuan/mt. Overall, the market still lacked a direct driver to break the deadlock in the short term, and prices were expected to remain stable. SMM New Energy Research Team Wang Cong 021-51,666,838 Ma Rui 021-51,595,780 Feng Disheng 021-51,666,714 Lv Yanlin 021-20,707,875 Zhou Zhicheng 021-51,666,711