[Mixed Bullish and Bearish Factors in the Market, SHFE and LME Zinc Prices Rose] At the beginning of the week, LME zinc continued last week's downward fluctuation trend; subsequently, the US dollar index dropped back slightly from its highs, and LME zinc rose; however, the ongoing escalation of the Middle East conflict, coupled with the renewed strength of the US dollar index, constrained the upside room for zinc prices, and the center of LME zinc gradually pulled back......

[SMM Magnesium Weekly Review: Magnesium Market Held Up Well, With Cost Support and a Tug-of-War Between Sellers and Buyers Continuing] This week, the overall magnesium industry chain held up well, with prices of all products generally raised. The raw material dolomite market remained stable, with ample supply and steady demand. Magnesium ingot prices consolidated at highs. At the beginning of the week, supported by rising energy costs such as ferrosilicon and coke and tight spot availability, prices jumped by 300 yuan/mt. Subsequently, downstream fear of high prices emerged, transactions failed to keep pace, and prices consolidated at highs. In foreign trade, the center of magnesium ingot FOB quotes moved up to $2,440-2,470/mt. Wait-and-see sentiment outside China remained strong, but influenced by bullish expectations in China, forward orders were gradually locked in. Magnesium powder prices remained firm, with strong cost support. Export data increased YoY, while domestic trade was mainly driven by just-in-time procurement. The benchmark price of magnesium alloy held up well, but the release of new capacity led to increased supply, processing fees stayed in the doldrums, and the market showed a pattern of strong supply and weak demand. Overall, cost support remained the core driver behind magnesium prices fluctuating at highs, while downstream acceptance of high prices was limited, and the market may continue this tug-of-war in the short term.

[US Fed Held Rates Unchanged, SHFE and LME Centers Continued to Move Lower This Week] At the beginning of the week, the market was heavily affected by geopolitical disruptions, with strong wait-and-see sentiment, and LME zinc maintained a fluctuating trend; subsequently, from a fundamental perspective, inventories outside China accumulated sharply, compounded by the escalation of the Middle East conflict, and market expectations for US Fed interest rate cuts cooled significantly, putting LME zinc under pressure and driving it lower......

[SMM Magnesium Weekly Review: Weak Supply and Demand Jointly Dominated Magnesium Price Trends, While Structural Divergence Emerged Across Segments] This week, operating trends across various products in China’s magnesium industry chain diverged, with the overall market characterized mainly by stability and rangebound fluctuations. The stalemate in market supply and demand became increasingly evident, and momentum for a unilateral market move remained insufficient. The upstream dolomite market maintained stable operations. Although a top-tier enterprise in the Wutai region suspended production, ample raw material inventory in place and timely capacity replenishment in major producing areas, coupled with a steady pace of just-in-time procurement by primary magnesium enterprises, kept prices stable without fluctuations. As the core product, magnesium ingot prices in China’s main producing areas consolidated at high levels, with mainstream transaction prices remaining stable. Market transactions showed mediocre performance, while producers demonstrated strong reluctance to sell. Against a backdrop of weak supply and demand, quoted prices fluctuated rangebound. On the export side, FOB quotations loosened slightly, and as ocean freight rates pulled back, inquiries from outside China recovered somewhat, with expectations for forward order placements. Supported by raw materials and boosted by the entry of export orders, the magnesium powder market saw firm quotations and held up well. In March, industry operating rates gradually recovered, and support from the demand side became increasingly evident. Magnesium alloy prices overall remained stable. On the supply side, as top-tier enterprises resumed production and newly added capacity gradually came on stream and ramped up output, downstream buyers mainly focused on just-in-time restocking, resulting in a pattern of strong supply and weak demand. Prices are expected to remain in the doldrums going forward. Looking across the entire industry chain, there have been no significant changes in current market fundamentals, and in the short term the market will still be dominated by steady fluctuations and marginal adjustments in some segments.

[Macro Disturbances Coupled With Rising China Inventory Weighed on the Centers of Both SHFE and LME This Week] At the beginning of the week, Trump stated that the conflict in Iran was basically over, and the US dollar index fell sharply, pushing the center of LME zinc higher; subsequently, market uncertainty intensified, some funds exited, and LME zinc came under pressure......

[SMM Magnesium Weekly Review: Magnesium Market Continued to Consolidate at High Levels, with Cost Support and Demand Stalemate Persisting] This week, the overall magnesium industry chain continued to consolidate at high levels, with prices of all categories remaining largely stable. The raw material dolomite market operated steadily, with differentiated supply across regions but overall stability, while the procurement pace on the demand side remained steady. The magnesium ingot market remained in a supply and demand stalemate, as producers showed strong reluctance to sell, and low circulating inventory supported firm quotations. However, both domestic trade and foreign trade demand appeared weak, transactions were sluggish, and FOB quotations stayed at high levels, though actual deals were limited. The magnesium powder market remained stable with a firm tone, domestic trade demand continued to recover steadily, foreign trade growth was limited, and cost support remained in place. The magnesium alloy market's benchmark price held steady, processing fees remained firm, enterprise operating rates rebounded, and downstream demand gradually recovered, though the pace of growth slowed, with overall transactions remaining mild. Looking ahead, the tug-of-war between cost support and weak demand is expected to continue, and the market may continue to consolidate at high levels.

SMM News on March 9: Dealers in Zhejiang reported a relative improvement in end-use consumption in the automotive lead-acid battery market, mainly due to post-holiday restocking by retailers. Battery inventory declined accordingly, while lead prices struggled to rise, and wholesale prices in the battery market have not seen significant changes for the time being; for example, the mainstream model 6-QW-45Ah was at 200-220 yuan/unit. Manufacturers in Hebei reported that after the holiday, dealers restocked as needed, and automotive lead-acid battery orders improved in March. In addition, factory staff have basically returned to work, and the current operating rate has exceeded 90%. Raw material lead is mainly procured under long-term contract. Manufacturers in Jiangxi reported that domestic demand in the automotive lead-acid battery market improved, while on the export side, affected by the SHFE/LME price ratio for lead, tariffs, and Middle East ocean shipping, export orders remained sluggish, and the current operating rate is maintained at 70-80%.

[Geopolitical Tensions Disrupted the Market, With SHFE and LME Closing Lower Over the Week] At the beginning of the week, continued overseas destocking supported a higher center for LME zinc; subsequently, as geopolitical tensions fueled inflation concerns, a stronger US dollar pressured the base metals sector, and LME zinc retreated after rapid rise, with its center moving lower......

This week, lithium carbonate prices fluctuated and declined. Based on actual transactions, upstream lithium chemical plants completed concentrated maintenance and resumed normal production. However, as prices pulled back, willingness to sell for spot orders remained weak, with strong sentiment to withhold supply and hold prices firm. Downstream material plants showed strong purchase willingness. Production schedules continued to increase, and restocking willingness was strong during price pullbacks. Overall, market inquiries and transactions were relatively active.

[SMM Weekly Magnesium Review: The Short-Term Volatile Pattern in the Magnesium Market Remained Unchanged, with Downstream Resumption and Geopolitical Developments Becoming Key Variables] This week, the domestic dolomite market held steady, with the supply side showing regional structural divergence: top-tier enterprises in the Wutai area halted production, while other major producing regions replenished capacity in a timely manner, keeping overall national supply broadly stable. On the demand side, operating rates at primary magnesium enterprises in Shaanxi, Shanxi, and Inner Mongolia remained stable, rigid demand was released in an orderly manner, and raw material inventory was ample, reinforcing the foundation for market stability. The domestic magnesium ingot market consolidated at high levels, the tug-of-war between sellers and buyers intensified, and prices fluctuated rangebound. On the supply side, support came from costs and tight spot cargo, enterprises showed strong reluctance to sell, low-priced supply was scarce, and bargaining room was extremely limited. On the demand side, both domestic and overseas demand were weak: in domestic trade, downstream buyers only restocked for rigid demand and purchasing intensity was relatively weak; in export markets, escalation in the Middle East situation disrupted shipping and pushed up ocean freight rates, export shipments were suspended, overseas purchasing plans were delayed, and amid the supply and demand stalemate, prices lacked momentum for a one-way move. The export market for magnesium ingot was hit by fluctuations in ocean freight rates and international developments, with strong wait-and-see sentiment across the industry, weak transactions, and rising uncertainty. The magnesium powder market, supported by raw materials, stayed stable with slight adjustments, mainly fulfilling earlier orders; new orders were few, and both domestic and export markets remained cautious. The magnesium alloy market held up well: magnesium ingot and aluminum ingot prices reinforced cost support, enterprise operating rates rebounded slightly, and demand recovered as downstream die-casting plants gradually resumed operations. Market transactions were mild, and prices were expected to remain largely stable in the short term.