Nearly one year after China reopened qualified black mass imports, the market has evolved differently from initial expectations. While stronger linkages have emerged between China's domestic and overseas markets, water-soluble fluorine remains a key constraint on direct imports. Meanwhile, overseas intermediate processing has gained attention as an alternative supply chain model, reflecting the industry's growing focus on cross-border resource integration and supply chain optimization.

In yesterday's [SMM Analysis] EU Steel Tariff Wall Doubles to 50%: Reconstructing the New Quota System & In-Depth Analysis of 1A HRC, SMM deeply analyzed the brutal allocation logic of the EU's new 18.35 million tonnes quota. When the "50% tariff wall" and the "melting and pouring" rules completely block traditional tax-free export paths, the global steel supply chain is undergoing a forced reshuffle. Today, we shift our perspective to the ripple effects and macro-level forecasts of this storm.

The Kuala Lumpur International Motor Show (KLIMS 2026) was recently held at the Malaysia International Trade and Exhibition Centre (MITEC). Weishi Energy showcased its high-performance fuel cell system, presenting its self-developed core hydrogen products and technological achievements to the Malaysian and ASEAN markets. The 120kW fuel cell system exhibited this time is Weishi Energy’s flagship product designed for commercial and industrial applications. The system features high power output, high system efficiency, and independent control over core components. It is compatible with various vehicle types such as buses, logistics vehicles, heavy trucks, and sanitation vehicles, and can also be used for stationary applications like hydrogen power generation . In response to Southeast Asia’s high-temperature and high-humidity climate, Weishi Energy has carried out targeted adaptive optimizations on the system to enhance the stability and reliability of the equipment under all-weather, high-intensity operating conditions. These optimizations give it not only technical demonstration value, but also a practical foundation for deployment and application in the local market. KLIMS 2026 is an influential mobility exhibition in Malaysia and the ASEAN region. This edition attracted approximately 200,000 visitors, with participating brands including 16 mainstream automakers. During the show, Weishi Energy's booth drew attention from local visitors and received recognition from the Malaysian royal family and government, reflecting the potential value of hydrogen technology in the country’s green transportation and energy transition. Previously, Weishi Energy had accumulated operational experience in markets such as Europe and Brazil. In the future, the company will partner with its Malaysian subsidiary of Great Wall Motor, leveraging local channels and service networks to explore the application of hydrogen vehicles and hydrogen power generation systems in Kuala Lumpur and surrounding areas, with a focus on public transportation, port logistics, urban sanitation, and green power generation. As Malaysia accelerates its carbon neutrality efforts, hydrogen equipment and fuel cell systems are expected to become an important supplement to the low-carbon transition of transportation and energy. Weishi Energy’s appearance at KLIMS also signals that its overseas expansion is further extending into the Southeast Asian market.

On 1 July 2026, the EU replaced the steel safeguard measures implemented since 2018 with a significantly stricter import quota system—this is not merely a continuation of the old policy, but a complete reconstruction of its underlying logic: the core objective has upgraded from "preventing trade diversion" to "targeted defense against high carbon and excess capacity."

[SMM Analysis] Anti-Dumping Investigation Arrived China's Grain-Oriented Silicon Steel Exports Encountered Major Changes

Anti-dumping Investigation Details On June 22, 2026, India’s Ministry of Commerce and Industry issued a notice announcing the initiation of an anti-dumping investigation concerning imports of Cold Rolled Grain Oriented Electrical Steel (CRGO) and Amorphous Metal (AM) originating in or imported from China, Japan, South Korea, and Russia, in response to an application filed by domestic producer JSW JFE Electrical Steel Nashik Private Limited. This case primarily covers products under HS codes 72251100, 72261100, and 72269930, as well as certain products under HS codes 72251920, 72251990, 72261920, 72269910, 72261990, 72269910, 72269920, and 72269990. The dumping investigation period runs from April 1, 2025 to March 31, 2026 (12 months), and the injury investigation period covers April 1, 2022 to March 31, 2023, April 1, 2023 to March 31, 2024, April 1, 2024 to March 31, 2025, and April 1, 2025 to March 31, 2026. China’s Grain-Oriented Silicon Steel Exports Source: General Administration of Customs Comparing January-May exports of grain-oriented silicon steel, monthly exports in the first five months of 2025 fluctuated more sharply, with a notable pullback in February and a peak for the period in April. In the first five months of 2026, monthly exports rose steadily month by month, showing a smoother trend; overall exports for January-May 2026 were similar to those of January-May 2025, and demand outside China remained relatively stable. Source: General Administration of Customs Among the top 10 destinations for grain-oriented silicon steel exports in the first five months of 2025 and 2026, India ranked as the largest market for the second consecutive year, with outstanding growth—exports to India were about 54,400 mt in the first five months of 2025, rising to 67,600 mt in the same period of 2026, a notable increase. Turkey moved significantly up the ranking, and Mexico dropped; Slovenia and Saudi Arabia entered the top 10, while Thailand and Spain fell out of the list. Exports to traditional markets—Italy, Mexico, South Korea, Brazil, the UAE, and Vietnam—generally pulled back YoY, with only India and Turkey recording a YoY increase; India became the sole core overseas demand driver experiencing substantial volume expansion. China’s large-scale exports of grain-oriented silicon steel to India, combined with the inability of local Indian producers to compete effectively, prompted India to initiate the anti-dumping case. Estimated Timeline for Implementation of India’s Anti-Dumping Duties India’s anti-dumping investigation follows a defined timetable: a preliminary determination and provisional duties are expected within 5 to 6 months of initiation; for complex cases involving multiple countries, such as this one on grain-oriented silicon steel, the final determination can take up to 18 months. After the final recommendation is submitted to the Ministry of Finance, a further 3-month review is required, so the entire process leading to the formal imposition of duties is expected to take approximately one and a half to two years. The fixed tariffs determined by the final ruling are valid for 5 years. Before expiry, local enterprises may initiate a sunset review, with the review period also lasting 12-18 months, during which the original tariffs remain in effect. Relevant grain-oriented silicon steel export enterprises may negotiate price undertakings within a 3- to 8-month window after case initiation to avoid provisional and definitive duties. Possible impact of India's anti-dumping on China From case initiation to preliminary determination: Once the case is filed, Indian importers will proactively adopt a wait-and-see approach, suspend new long-term contracts, and turn to supply sources from Japan and South Korea, leading to a contraction in orders from China to India. In addition, relevant Chinese enterprises will incur high litigation costs and increase various document compliance expenditures; small and medium-sized mills without the capability to respond to lawsuits will directly exit the Indian market, while top-tier players will bear substantial additional costs in defending the case. When the preliminary ruling is announced after 5-6 months, a provisional anti-dumping duty (for up to 6 months) will be directly imposed, significantly raising export costs, reducing shipments to India, and causing diverted goods to flow back and impact spot prices of grain-oriented silicon steel in China, hurting steel producers' profits. This will increase the willingness to conduct maintenance and control production, put sector sentiment under pressure, and weaken the valuations of listed grain-oriented silicon steel enterprises. Downstream power equipment, such as domestic transformers and reactors exported to India, will also face obstacles. Bidding costs for complete equipment will rise, and orders from India for power grids, PV inverters, etc., will be lost. Involution in the domestic market will intensify, as low-end transformer manufacturers cut prices to compete for orders, and profits will contract concurrently. 1-2 year long-term cycle: After the 18-month final determination and Ministry of Finance approval, a high fixed tariff for 5 years will be imposed, constituting a medium- and long-term structural shock. China will be forced to adjust its grain-oriented capacity structure, explore alternative overseas markets, promote building factories abroad, comprehensively reduce its dependence on the single Indian market, focus on developing incremental grid markets in the Middle East, Southeast Asia, and Latin America, and diversify its export structure. Top-tier steel producers will go global, setting up silicon steel slitting bases and joint-venture steel mills in Southeast Asia, while transformer enterprises will simultaneously build factories overseas to circumvent finished-product tariff barriers. Overseas aspects: Indian market In the short term, Indian importers will shift to supply sources from Japan, South Korea, and Russia, leading to higher procurement costs. With insufficient domestic capacity for low-grade silicon steel, transformer manufacturers will face raw material shortages. Downstream power manufacturing associations will protest against rising costs, infrastructure project bids will rise, and the pace of grid expansion will slow down. High tariffs will raise costs across India's entire industry chain, undermining the competitiveness of its new energy and grid infrastructure compared with Southeast Asia. In the long term, policies will continue to support domestic grain-oriented silicon steel projects such as JSW-JFE. Within 5 years, domestic capacity will expand significantly, and low-end silicon steel will achieve self-sufficiency. Global Trade Market Enterprises from Japan and South Korea and Russia are seizing China’s original share in India, creating a supply substitution, while China shifts to the Middle East, Southeast Asia, and Latin America to form differentiated competition tracks. The processing of transformers and silicon steel is relocating to Vietnam, Indonesia, and Malaysia, forming a Southeast Asian power equipment manufacturing cluster. Third-country deep processing and origin-based tariff circumvention will become a long-term conventional trade model. Data Source Statement: The other data in this report, beyond publicly available information (including but not limited to industry news, seminars, exhibitions, corporate financial reports, brokerage reports, NBS data, customs import and export data, and various data published by major associations and institutions), market communication, and reliance on SMM’s internal database models, have been comprehensively analyzed and reasonably inferred by the research team. They are for reference only and do not constitute decision-making advice. Shanghai Metals Market reserves the final right to interpret the terms of this statement and the right to adjust and modify its content based on actual circumstances.

SMM, June 30 According to SMM statistics, overseas metallurgical-grade alumina output in June 2026 fell by around 6.0% YoY and 5.5% MoM. Supply-side disruptions in the overseas alumina market became more evident compared with May. On the one hand, affected by tensions in the Middle East, production and shipment schedules at some producers have yet to fully recover. On the other hand, weather-related disruptions and natural gas supply issues in Australia continued to weigh on local alumina output and shipments. By company and region, Alcoa said that due to the impact of Cyclone Narelle in Australia, LNG supply to its Pinjarra alumina refinery in Western Australia was temporarily disrupted. As a result, the company expects its alumina shipments in Q2 to decrease by around 120,000 mt compared with Q1, while the disruption is expected to increase Q2 production costs by around $30 million. In addition, due to tensions in the Middle East, fuel costs at the company’s São Luís alumina refinery in Brazil also increased. Alcoa’s Western Australia alumina operations are currently under significant pressure from weak alumina prices, declining bauxite grades and rising energy costs. In Europe, geopolitical risks continued to escalate. During the EU’s new round of discussions on sanctions against Russia in June, exports of alumina from Ireland’s Aughinish Alumina to Russia remained under scrutiny. Public reports showed that alumina exports were not included in the latest EU sanctions package for the time being. However, if sanctions are tightened further, this could affect European alumina trade flows and the regional supply landscape. Entering June, with some Malaysian bauxite cargoes arriving, feedstock availability improved at certain alumina refineries in Indonesia, creating room for a subsequent recovery in output. However, Indonesia’s bauxite quota policy and logistics stability still need to be closely monitored. In addition, Tajikistan and Azerbaijan also discussed cooperation in alumina supply and aluminium product trade in June. Under the proposed arrangement, Azerbaijan would supply alumina to Tajikistan, while Tajikistan would export aluminium products to Azerbaijan. This cooperation is expected to have limited impact on overseas alumina output in the short term, but it reflects ongoing regional aluminium industry chain coordination and adjustments in trade flows. Looking ahead to July, overseas metallurgical-grade alumina supply is expected to see a recovery, with output likely to rise by around 4.5% MoM. On the one hand, raw material constraints at some Indonesian alumina refineries have eased following the arrival of bauxite cargoes, and output is expected to recover gradually. On the other hand, weather-related and natural gas supply disruptions in Australia are easing at the margin, which may support the recovery of previously affected production and shipment schedules. However, geopolitical risks in the Middle East, uncertainty over EU sanctions against Russia, energy cost pressure in Australia, and Indonesia’s bauxite quota issues may continue to disrupt the recovery of overseas supply. Overall, overseas alumina output is expected to rebound slightly in July, but supply-side uncertainty remains relatively high.

SMM, June 30: According to SMM statistics, total production of metallurgical-grade alumina outside China in June 2026 fell about 6.0% YoY and about 5.5% MoM. In June, supply-side disruptions in the alumina market outside China became more pronounced compared with May. On one hand, due to the situation in the Middle East, production and shipment paces at some enterprises had not yet fully recovered; on the other hand, weather and natural gas supply disruptions in Australia persisted, weighing on local alumina production and shipments. By enterprise and region, Alcoa said that, due to the impact of the earlier Cyclone Narelle in Australia, the LNG supply to its Pinjarra alumina refinery in Western Australia was temporarily disrupted. It expected Q2 alumina shipments to be about 120,000 mt lower than in Q1, and the related disruption was expected to push up Q2 production costs by approximately $30 million. In addition, due to the Middle East situation, fuel costs at the company's São Luís alumina refinery in Brazil also rose. Currently, Alcoa's Western Australian alumina operations are still facing multiple pressures, including weak alumina prices, declining bauxite grades, and rising energy costs, and its overall operations are clearly under pressure. In Europe, geopolitical risks continued to escalate. In June, during discussions on a new round of EU sanctions against Russia, the issue of alumina exports from Aughinish Alumina in Ireland to Russia continued to attract attention. Public reports indicated that the latest EU sanctions package did not yet include alumina exports within its restrictions, but if sanctions are further tightened later, it could affect alumina trade flows and the regional supply landscape in Europe. Since June, with the arrival of some Malaysian bauxite, raw material supply at some local alumina refineries has improved, leaving some room for production recovery, but issues related to bauxite export quotas in Indonesia and logistics stability still require close monitoring. Additionally, in June, Tajikistan and Azerbaijan explored cooperation on alumina supply and aluminum product trade, under which Azerbaijan plans to supply alumina to Tajikistan and Tajikistan would export aluminum products to Azerbaijan. This cooperation will have limited impact on alumina production outside China in the near term, but it reflects that regional aluminum industry chain coordination and trade flow adjustments are still advancing. Looking ahead to July, metallurgical-grade alumina supply outside China is expected to see a recovery-driven increase, with production rebounding about 4.5% MoM. On one hand, with the arrival of bauxite at ports, raw material constraints at some Indonesian alumina refineries have eased, and output is expected to gradually recover; on the other hand, weather and natural gas supply disruptions in Australia are easing marginally, and earlier affected production and shipment paces may recover. However, geopolitical risks in the Middle East, uncertainty over EU sanctions against Russia, cost pressure from energy in Australia, and Indonesia's bauxite quota issues may still disrupt the supply recovery outside China. Overall, alumina production outside China is expected to rebound slightly in July, but supply-side uncertainty remains high. (The above information is derived from market data collection and a comprehensive evaluation by the SMM research team. The information provided in this article is for reference only. This article does not constitute direct advice for investment research decisions. Clients should make decisions cautiously and should not use this to replace their own independent judgment. Any decisions made by clients are not related to SMM.) Data source: SMM

Recently, Malaysia’s Plus Xnergy Services Sdn Bhd announced that a 20MWh battery energy storage system, deployed at a large food manufacturing facility in Perak, Malaysia, has completed full-capacity grid connection and entered commercial operation. The project was jointly developed by Plus Xnergy and energy storage system supplier HyperStrong. It is positioned as a commercial and industrial self-consumption battery energy storage project, namely a SELCO BESS.

US Customs and Border Protection has issued a final determination finding that Waaree Energies evaded tariffs on solar cells from Vietnam and Malaysia between 2021 and June 23, 2026. CBP will assess anti-dumping duties of up to 271.28% on Waaree’s imported solar modules found to be subject to the tariffs, while continuing to suspend liquidation until the final duty bill is settled or any appeal is resolved. The investigation was launched in June 2025 under EAPA case 8163 following a petition by US solar manufacturers. CBP said Waaree was able to show it had enough non-Chinese cells to account for its US module imports, but found that the company had misreported the country of origin for certain imports over a four-year period.