Next week, there will be limited macroeconomic data releases, mainly including the final March University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for the US and the final March one-year inflation expectations for the US. At present, key events outside China remain the geopolitical issues in the Middle East, as well as the views of representatives from various countries on global trade development at the upcoming 14th WTO Ministerial Conference (MC14). LME lead, markets outside China will continue to be affected by geopolitical issues, with damage to the economic environment and prolonged logistics cycles dragging LME lead lower consecutively to a near one-year low. However, we need to note that the SHFE/LME price ratio widened, allowing more imported lead to flow into the Chinese market, while spot cargo availability in Southeast Asia tightened and spot premiums rose, with LME Cash-3M contango narrowing to -$41.44/mt. Next week, attention should be paid to the possibility of lead prices probing lower and then rebounding after macro headwinds are fully priced in. LME lead is expected to trade at $1,840-1,930/mt next week. SHFE lead, dragged down by the decline in overseas lead prices, the SHFE/LME price ratio widened and expectations for lead ingot imports increased, especially against the backdrop of China’s lead ingot social inventory standing at a 16-month high, sending lead prices lower in succession. At the same time, we need to note that inventory at domestic smelters remained on a declining trend, losses in secondary lead widened, and the inversion between secondary lead and primary lead prices may become a factor stopping lead prices from falling. In addition, downstream enterprises purchased on dips, and attention should be paid to the subsequent decline in social inventory. If destocking materializes, lead prices may stop falling and rebound. The most-traded SHFE lead contract is expected to trade at 16,100-16,750 yuan/mt next week. Spot price forecast: 16,100-16,550 yuan/mt. For primary lead and secondary lead, supply continued to rise as smelters resumed operations after maintenance. On the demand side, downstream enterprises' short-term restocking on dips may facilitate destocking, but from April to May is the traditional off-season for the lead-acid battery market, and the sustainability of downstream enterprise procurement is limited, so spot lead premiums are expected to struggle to continue rising.

[SMM Tin Midday Commentary: Bullish and Bearish Factors Intertwine, and the Dilemma of Fluctuating Between Gains and Losses in Shanghai Tin Continues]

[SMM Analysis] The nickel price was mainly driven by macroeconomic sentiment and fundamentals from the perspective of the industrial chain within the week. First, in terms of macroeconomics, as September approaches, market transactions for interest rate cuts in September have gradually intensified, influenced by dovish remarks made earlier by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell and a number of officials...

SHANGHAI, Sep 13 (SMM) –Macroeconomics: Domestically, within the economic cycle, positive macroeconomic signals continue to bed released. People's Bank of China, China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission, and China Securities Regulatory Commission jointly held a meeting and proposed adjustments to optimize real estate credit policies.

The trend of nickel prices in H1 2024 overall presented an inverted "V" shape. The performance of nickel prices in H1 this year can be summarized as a rise followed by a fall...

[SMM Analysis] In terms of macroeconomics this week, the US non-farm payroll data was significantly revised downwards. Since the Fed's logic of not cutting interest rates from 2023 onwards strongly relies on the performance of non-farm payroll data, the market expresses concerns about the rationality of US economic data...

Last week, in macroeconomics, US non-farm payrolls data was significantly revised down.

[SMM Morning Meeting Summary: Market Sentiment Boosted by Macroeconomics, LME Zinc Maintains High Level] Overnight, LME zinc recorded a large bullish candlestick, with the 20-day moving average providing support below. LME social inventories decreased by 1,100 tonnes to 256,950 tonnes, a decrease of 0.43%. LME social inventories declined. In September, the United States...

[SMM Brief Comment on Aluminum Futures: Positive Macro Sentiment, SHFE Aluminum Rises] In terms of macroeconomics, Fed Chairman Powell sent the strongest signal so far last Friday, indicating that interest rate cuts were imminent. The US dollar index hit its lowest point in nearly a year, and non-ferrous metals generally rose. In terms of fundamentals, domestic electrolytic...

In terms of macroeconomics, US retail sales for June recorded a growth rate of 0.2%, marking the third consecutive month of growth. However, it fell below the expected growth rate of 0.5%.