SMM May 8 News: Metals market: Overnight base metals showed mixed performance across domestic and overseas markets. LME zinc led the gains with a 1.1% rise, SHFE tin rose 0.76%, LME aluminum fell 1.34%, LME tin fell 1.25%, and the remaining metals posted % changes within 1%. The alumina most-traded contract fell 0.03%, while the foundry aluminum most-traded contract rose 0.02%. Overnight ferrous metals: stainless steel fell 0.97% to lead the declines, iron ore temporarily settled flat at 815 yuan/mt, and rebar rose 0.4%. Coking coal and coke showed mixed performance, with coking coal up 0.46% and coke down 0.11%. Overnight precious metals: COMEX gold rose 0.04% and COMEX silver rose 2.09%. In China, SHFE gold rose 0.12% and SHFE silver rose 2.49%. PBOC: China's gold reserves stood at 74.64 million ounces (approximately 2,321.56 mt) at the end of April, up 260,000 ounces (approximately 8.09 mt) MoM from 74.38 million ounces (approximately 2,313.48 mt) at the end of March, marking the 18th consecutive month of gold accumulation. (Jin10 Data APP) As of 6:43 AM on May 8, overnight closing prices: Macro Front China: [Domestic tourism during this year's Labour Day holiday reached 325 million trips, up 3.6% YoY] During the Labour Day holiday, domestic tourism reached 325 million trips nationwide, up 3.6% YoY; total domestic tourism spending was 185.492 billion yuan, up 2.9% YoY. (CCTV News) (Jin10 Data APP) [MOFCOM spokesperson answered reporters' questions on the EU's ban on funding projects using Chinese inverters] According to media reports, EU officials stated that the EU will ban funding for projects using inverters from China and other "high-risk countries." When asked for China's comment, the MOFCOM spokesperson said China has noted the relevant reports. Without any actual evidence, the EU for the first time designated China as a so-called "high-risk country" and used this as a pretext to ban funding for projects using Chinese inverters. This constitutes stigmatization of China and imposes unfair and discriminatory treatment on Chinese products. China rejects and firmly opposes this. China urges the EU to immediately stop stigmatizing China by labeling it a "high-risk country" and to revoke the unfair and discriminatory practices against Chinese products. China will closely monitor and carefully assess the impact of EU policies on the interests of Chinese enterprises and China-EU industrial and supply chains, and will take measures to safeguard the legitimate rights and interests of Chinese enterprises. (MOFCOM) (Jin10 Data APP) US dollar: As of the overnight close, the US dollar index rose 0.27% to 98.28. New York Fed President Williams said on Thursday that demand for US Treasuries remained strong despite the government's massive borrowing. Williams said the US Fed was watching the government's extremely high borrowing levels "very closely." He noted that while it may be surprising, demand for US Treasuries remained "enormous," and "the US is still seen as the strongest economy in the world" and an ideal safe haven for capital, "even with all the geopolitical issues and other factors, that hasn't changed." Williams also said the US economy had shown considerable resilience amid the energy shock triggered by the Middle East war. He said that given surging energy prices, "the biggest question" was how the situation would evolve, adding that regarding inflation that continued to stay high, the US Fed would "make sure" and commit to bringing inflation back down to the 2% target. (Jin10 Data APP) San Francisco Fed President Daly downplayed the divergence in the US Fed's statement, suggesting she would not dissent like some of her colleagues. She said the wording of the statement was less important than actions, and the real signal from the meeting was the unanimous agreement on the decision. Last month, three officials objected to language hinting at future interest rate cuts, arguing that the energy shock and uncertainty from the Iran war made a signal that "rates could go up or down" more appropriate. Daly, who does not have a vote this year, said the public understood the US Fed's price stability mandate. Daly said there were no signs yet that energy prices were pushing up medium- or long-term inflation expectations. "It's too early to tell. If the conflict ends and oil prices pull back without transmitting to the broader economy, the fundamental dynamics from before the conflict are expected to return." She was committed to achieving the 2% inflation target but should not overreact to the expected duration of the energy shock. She said policy was "slightly restrictive," and if the war were resolved, it would pose downward pressure on inflation; the labour market was stable and not generating inflationary pressure. (Jin10 Data APP) [US Fed's Kashkari: Next interest rate move uncertain due to Iran conflict] Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari said the Middle East conflict had added uncertainty to the interest rate outlook. "Given the uncertainty surrounding the Iran war, I actually don't know what's going to happen," Kashkari said at an event in Marquette, Michigan. "If the Strait of Hormuz remains closed for an extended period, the next interest rate move could very well need to be upward." (Wallstreetcn) According to CME "FedWatch": the probability of the US Fed holding rates unchanged through June was 96.4%, with a 3.6% probability of a cumulative 25 bps interest rate cut. The probability of holding rates unchanged through July was 90.2%, with a 9.5% probability of a cumulative 25 bps cut and a 0.2% probability of a cumulative 50 bps cut. (Jin10 Data APP) Macro: Data to be released today include: US April unemployment rate, US April seasonally adjusted non-farm payrolls, US April average hourly earnings YoY, US April average hourly earnings MoM, US May preliminary one-year inflation expectations, US May preliminary University of Michigan consumer sentiment index, US March wholesale sales MoM, Germany March seasonally adjusted industrial output MoM, Germany March seasonally adjusted trade balance, Switzerland April consumer confidence index, UK April Halifax seasonally adjusted house price index MoM, and Canada April employment figures. In addition, a new round of domestic refined oil price adjustments will open. 2026 FOMC voter and Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari will participate in a fireside chat; 2026 FOMC voter and Cleveland Fed President Hammack will deliver a speech; FOMC permanent voter and New York Fed President Williams will deliver a speech; US Fed Governor Lisa Cook will deliver a speech; and Bank of England Governor Bailey will speak on global imbalances. Crude oil: As of the overnight close, oil prices on both markets rose, with WTI up 2.71% and Brent up 2.13%. Citi's global head of commodities research Max Layton said oil prices would continue to swing wildly until there was clarity on whether Iran and Trump could reach a deal. "It's hard to predict whether Iran will reach a deal, and in an environment where you simply don't know whether a deal will be reached, the market is inevitably news-driven and will experience wild swings." Crude oil fell for a third consecutive trading day on Thursday. Layton said the decline was partly driven by "the market's hope that the two sides could begin deal negotiations." However, physical crude oil market pressures in the Middle East persisted. Traders said that a key crude oil loading terminal in Oman, outside the Strait of Hormuz, experienced loading delays in April, disrupting shipping plans and potentially delaying deliveries to buyers. Layton said the global physical crude oil market had accumulated "quite substantial buffer inventory" of approximately 700 million to 800 million barrels over the past 12 months. "We are burning through this inventory rapidly," he said, but the impact would "manifest gradually over a longer period." He added that before actually lowering oil price forecasts, he needed to see whether Iran was ready to seriously reach a deal with the US. Last month, after the second round of US-Iran peace talks failed to take place, Citi raised its Brent crude benchmark price forecast by $15 to $110/barrel and pushed back its baseline expectation for the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz from mid-to-late April to the end of May. (Jin10 Data APP) International Energy Agency (IEA) Executive Director Fatih Birol said the agency was prepared to release more crude oil from its strategic reserves if war-induced supply disruptions persisted. He added that the agency had so far released 20% of its available oil reserves to ease rising prices. Releasing additional crude oil onto the international market would limit demand for US crude at all levels. Demand side, Marathon's refinery in Carson, California reported that it planned to conduct flaring activities from May 8 to May 12 due to maintenance work. (Wallstreetcn)

Weak downstream demand continued to weigh on tungsten prices. The average price of wolframite concentrates (≥65%) on May 7 was reported at 700,500 yuan/standard tonne (65%WO3 basis), having pulled back more than 33% from its historical high in less than two months. As multiple tungsten enterprises continued to lower their long-term contract prices for the first half of May, extending the two rounds of reductions in April, how will tungsten prices evolve going forward? Multiple Tungsten Enterprises Continue to Lower Long-term Contract Prices for the First Half of May Multiple tungsten enterprises continued to lower their long-term contract prices for the first half of May, with details as follows: A tungsten industry group in Jiangxi released its long-term contract prices for the first half of May. The guidance price for national standard Grade-1 wolframite concentrates for the first half of May 2026 was 720,000 yuan/standard tonne (65%WO3 basis) (long-term contract), down 190,000 yuan/standard tonne (65%WO3 basis) from the second half of April. Chongyi Zhangyuan Tungsten's long-term contract procurement prices for the first half of May were: 1 55% wolframite concentrates: 700,000 yuan/standard tonne (65%WO3 basis), down 185,000 yuan/standard tonne (65%WO3 basis) from the previous round; 2 55% scheelite concentrates: 699,000 yuan/standard tonne (65%WO3 basis), down 185,000 yuan/standard tonne (65%WO3 basis) from the previous round; 3 APT (national standard Grade-0): 1.02 million yuan/mt, down 330,000 yuan/mt from the previous round. Wolframite Concentrates Fell 33.32% in Less Than 2 Months According to SMM, the price spread between tungsten ore long-term contract prices and spot order transaction prices widened to around 200,000, with mainstream mines primarily making shipments under long-term contracts. Spot orders in the market still faced some selling pressure, with transactions remaining difficult and the center continuously shifting downward. However, considering the limited spot order trading volume and the relatively high proportion of long-term contracts in the market, SMM maintained its May 7 prices unchanged for the time being. According to SMM quotes, the price of wolframite concentrates (≥65%) on that day was 700,000–701,000 yuan/standard tonne (65%WO3 basis), with an average price of 700,500 yuan/standard tonne (65%WO3 basis), flat from the previous trading day. Along with the downward shift in the tungsten price center, the average price of wolframite concentrates (≥65%) at 700,500 yuan/standard tonne (65%WO3 basis) on May 7, compared with its historical high average price of 1,050,500 yuan/standard tonne (65%WO3 basis) on March 16, showed that in less than 2 months, the average price of wolframite concentrates fell by 350,000 yuan/standard tonne (65%WO3 basis), a decline of 33.32%. Outlook As China's mainstream tungsten enterprises continue to lower their new round of long-term contract prices, confidence in the spot market will remain under pressure. Tungsten prices are expected to remain in the doldrums in the short term given the lack of demand support. In the long term, underpinned by the supply rigidity from the continued tightening of China's annual tungsten ore mining quotas, the logic of raw material supply contraction remains unchanged. After tungsten prices pulled back more than 33% in less than two months, the room for further deep declines has been significantly compressed. Going forward, the key focus will be on the pace of recovery in actual end-user demand from downstream sectors such as cemented carbide, special steel, and PV tungsten wire, as well as the timing of concentrated restocking by enterprises in the low-price segment. Recommended reading:

On May 7, 2026, the iron ore market showed a volatile but strengthening trend with intense trading activity. The main contract I2609 finally closed at 817 yuan/ton, up 0.62% from the previous trading session.

On May 7, 2026, iron ore futures fluctuated upward with intense trading, and the most-traded contract I2609 closed at 817 yuan/mt, up 0.62% from the previous trading session. Port spot prices were basically flat compared to the previous day. Traders showed moderate quoting activity, and steel mills remained cautious in procurement; overall spot transaction sentiment was lukewarm. Currently, iron ore supply-demand fundamentals remain stable. However, oil prices transmitted through the shipping market, leading to a significant rise in iron ore freight costs today, further supporting iron ore prices. In addition, reports indicated that the US and Iran are negotiating on resolving conflicts and reopening the Strait of Hormuz, with oil prices having fallen for three consecutive days. This news may boost market sentiment in the short term, providing positive sentiment-driven support for iron ore prices.

[SMM Coking Coal and Coke Daily Brief] Supply side, coking costs increased, squeezing coke enterprise profits. Currently, coke enterprises maintained normal shipments, with their own coke inventory at low levels, and coke production levels were generally stable with slight increases. Demand side, steel mills currently had high production enthusiasm, hot metal production declined slightly but remained at a relatively high level, sustaining rigid demand for coke. Additionally, finished steel prices rose notably after the holiday, expanding steel mill profits. In summary, the third round of coke price increase has not yet been implemented, with coke and steel enterprises continuing to negotiate. In the short term, the coke market is expected to hold up well, remaining generally stable with slight rise.

ArcelorMittal Kryvyi Rih (AMKR) has announced a temporary suspension of its steel and rolled product manufacturing for at least four days, starting May 5, 2026, due to critical damage to the railway infrastructure connecting the plant to Black Sea ports. The logistics bottleneck, caused by repeated strikes on the Odesa-Chornomorsk bridge, has paralyzed the export of iron ore concentrate and finished steel, forcing the company to idle Blast Furnace No. 6. While the plant aimed for a 2026 production target of 5.3 million metric tons (mt) of iron ore concentrate and 3.8 million mt of crude steel, this disruption threatens to tighten the supply of long products in the European and North African markets.

The US Department of Commerce (DOC) has announced the preliminary results of its administrative review of the antidumping (AD) duty order on large diameter welded pipe from India for the period of May 1, 2023, to April 30, 2024. The DOC preliminarily found that Welspun Corp Limited and its affiliates did not sell the subject merchandise at less than normal value, assigning a dumping margin of 0.00%. Additionally, the review was rescinded for 12 other Indian companies as they had no reviewable shipments during the period. This preliminary zero-margin finding for a major producer suggests a potential easing of trade barriers for specific Indian pipe exports, though final results are pending.

The American Iron and Steel Institute (AISI) reported that US steel mills shipped 7.74 million net tons in March 2026, marking a 10.9% increase from the 6.98 million net tons shipped in February, though down 0.6% compared to March 2025. Total shipments for the first quarter of 2026 reached 21.82 million net tons, a 1.6% decrease year-on-year. Specifically, shipments of corrosion-resistant steel rose by 12%, cold rolled sheets by 11%, and hot rolled sheets by 6% compared to the previous month. The significant monthly rebound indicates a seasonal recovery in manufacturing and construction demand, though the slight year-on-year decline suggests the market is still adjusting to broader economic cooling compared to the previous year.

India's crude steel production rose by 6% year-on-year in April 2026 to reach 12.1 million metric tons (Mt). Domestic finished steel consumption outpaced production growth, increasing by 8% to 11.3 million mt, driven by strong infrastructure activity. During the month, finished steel output stood at 11.6 million mt (+5.5% YoY), while imports jumped 12% to 0.6 million mt and exports fell by 15% to 0.5 million mt. The data confirms India's status as a primary driver of global steel demand, with strong domestic absorption reducing export surpluses and making the country a net importer for the period, which may support global steel prices amid tightening regional supply.

The Eurasian Economic Commission (EEC) has initiated an expiry review of the anti-dumping (AD) duties currently applied to stainless steel seamless pipes originating from Ukraine. The existing duty rate of 18.96% will remain in effect throughout the investigation period, which covers data from 2022 to 2025, with the specific dumping analysis period set as January 1 to December 31, 2025. This move aims to determine whether the removal of duties would lead to a recurrence of dumping and injury to the domestic industry within the Eurasian Economic Union. The extension of these measures limits the price competitiveness of Ukrainian stainless pipes in the EAEU market, maintaining a protective environment for regional producers.