SMM News, May 29: Metals market: As of the midday close, domestic base metals rose nearly across the board. SHFE copper was up 0.86%, SHFE aluminum up 0.19%, SHFE lead down 0.45%, SHFE zinc up 1.05%, SHFE tin up 1.31%, and SHFE nickel edged down. In addition, the most-traded casting aluminum futures edged up, the most-traded alumina contract was up 1.08%, the most-traded lithium carbonate contract up 0.9%, the most-traded silicon metal contract up 0.12%, and the most-traded polysilicon futures contract up 0.45%. Ferrous metals mostly rose. Iron ore was up 0.77%, rebar up 0.38%, hot-rolled coil up 0.47%, and stainless steel down 0.57%. Coking coal and coke: coking coal edged up, and the most-traded coke contract was up 0.42%. Overseas base metals, as of 11:41, LME metals fell nearly across the board. LME copper was down 0.41%, LME aluminum down 0.68%, LME lead down 0.12%, LME zinc up 0.18%, LME tin down 1.61%, and LME nickel down 0.52%. Precious metals, as of 11:41, COMEX gold was down 0.1% and COMEX silver down 0.26%. Domestic precious metals: the most-traded SHFE gold contract was up 1.59% and the most-traded SHFE silver contract up 1.86%. In addition, as of the midday close, the most-traded platinum futures contract was up 0.89% and the most-traded palladium futures contract down 1.45%. As of the midday close, the most-traded Europe containerized freight contract was up 0.62%, closing at 3,016 points. As of 11:41 on May 29, midday futures quotes for selected contracts: Spot cargo and fundamentals Aluminum: On May 29, SMM A00 aluminum (Foshan) was quoted at 24,060, up 50, at a discount of 225 to the current-month contract, narrowing by 5. Futures edged up today, and spot cargo in South China was generally stable with slight fall. Absolute prices remained at relatively low levels and inventory saw significant drawdowns. In the morning, most holders continued to hold prices firm for shipments... Macro front China: [ CCPIT: Global Trade Friction Index Remained at High Level in March ] This morning (May 29), the China Council for the Promotion of International Trade (CCPIT) held a press conference to release the latest Global Trade Friction Index. Data showed that in March this year, the global trade friction index remained at a high level. Composite index, the global trade friction index stood at 104 in March 2026, remaining at a high level. The value of trade involved in global trade friction measures fell 29.1% YoY but rose 2.8% MoM. Country-specific indices, among the 20 countries (regions) monitored, the top 3 were the US, India, and the EU. The US accounted for the largest amount involved in global trade friction measures, ranking first in 11 out of the past 12 months. Wang Yifei, spokesperson of the China Council for the Promotion of International Trade (CCPIT), stated that in terms of industry indices, among the 13 major industries within the monitoring scope, trade friction measures were concentrated in the electronics, chemicals, transportation equipment, and machinery equipment industries, with the electronics industry ranking first in the trade friction index. (CCTV News) [PBOC Reverse Repo Operations Achieved a Net Withdrawal of 30 Billion Yuan for the Day and a Net Injection of 104.4 Billion Yuan for the Week] The PBOC conducted 123 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repo operations today. As 153 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repos matured today, a net withdrawal of 30 billion yuan was achieved for the day. This week, the PBOC conducted 908.9 billion yuan of reverse repo operations. As a total of 500 billion yuan of 1-year MLF and 304.5 billion yuan of reverse repos matured this week, a net injection of 104.4 billion yuan was achieved for the week. (Jin10 Data APP) US Dollar: As of 11:41, the US dollar index rose 0.1% to 99.1. Fed's Musalem said on Thursday that, like several other Fed policymakers, he believed the "easing bias" language should have been removed from the post-meeting statement last month, thereby creating the possibility of an interest rate hike. "I supported the rate decision, but I believe the easing bias no longer aligns with the economic outlook and the balance of risks," Musalem said. Blerina Uruci, chief US economist at T. Rowe Price, said the market may still be underestimating the likelihood of further policy tightening by the US Fed. In her report, Uruci noted that since early May, the Iran conflict has lasted longer than expected, oil prices have risen, and US economic growth has remained resilient. While the US Fed can look through a temporary energy shock, sustained oil and import price pressures could affect inflation expectations, wage dynamics, and enterprise pricing behavior. Uruci shifted her base case to the federal funds rate remaining unchanged over the next 12 months. She assigned a 45% probability to rates staying unchanged, a 35% probability of an interest rate hike by year-end or early 2027, and a 20% probability of an interest rate cut. According to the CME "FedWatch": the probability of the US Fed keeping rates unchanged through June was 99.4%, with a 0.6% probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point hike. The probability of the US Fed keeping rates unchanged through July was 93%, with a 6.9% probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point hike. (Jin10 Data APP) A series of economic data confirmed market concerns about US inflation, while economic activity sent mixed signals. US durable goods orders rose 7.9% in April, easily surpassing the Wall Street Journal's market consensus expectations of 3.5%; however, this figure was largely driven by a surge in non-defense aircraft equipment orders. The second estimate of Q1 GDP growth was unexpectedly revised down from 2% to 1.6%. Weekly initial jobless claims rose more than expected, increasing from an upwardly revised 210,000 to 215,000, suggesting an acceleration in the pace of enterprise layoffs. PCE inflation accelerated as expected, rising from 3.5% to 3.8%. (Jin10 Data APP) Data: Today will see the release of France's preliminary May CPI m/m, France's final Q1 GDP y/y, Germany's seasonally adjusted May unemployment change, Germany's seasonally adjusted May unemployment rate, Germany's preliminary May CPI m/m, Canada's March GDP m/m, and the US May Chicago PMI, among other data. In addition, attention should be paid to: 2027 FOMC voter and Richmond Fed President Barkin participating in a fireside chat at a conference hosted by Johns Hopkins University Carey Business School; 2026 FOMC voter and Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari participating in an exchange event at Korea University; Bank of England Governor Bailey delivering a speech; 2028 FOMC voter and Kansas City Fed President Schmid delivering a speech; US Fed Governor Bowman delivering a speech; and 2026 FOMC voter and Philadelphia Fed President Paulsen delivering a speech on the economic outlook. Crude oil: As of 11:41, both benchmarks declined, with WTI down 1.26% and Brent down 0.85%. The market expected a possible US-Iran ceasefire extension agreement, putting oil prices under pressure. Meanwhile, the back-and-forth nature of bilateral agreement negotiations also led to heightened volatility in oil prices. The US and Iran are nearing a historic 60-day ceasefire and maritime corridor unblocking agreement, but contradictory statements from senior officials on both sides indicate that core disagreements over Iran's nuclear plan and control of the Strait of Hormuz persist, leaving significant uncertainty over whether a final deal can be reached. According to Xinhua News Agency, US officials stated that US-Iran negotiators had largely reached agreement on the terms of a memorandum of understanding on the 26th, pending approval from senior leadership on both sides. The Iranian side stated it had obtained the necessary approval and was ready to sign. US negotiators briefed Trump on the details of the memorandum of understanding. "The President told the mediators that he would like to take a few days to consider the matter." Meanwhile, according to CCTV News, the Iranian side stated that as of now, Iran has not agreed to any memorandum of understanding, nor has it confirmed to Pakistani mediators that it has approved the memorandum. In addition, Iran explicitly stated that it had not made any commitments on the nuclear issue during negotiations with the US. (Wallstreetcn) US Treasury Secretary Bessent: Oil prices will be lower than pre-conflict levels. Nearly 2,000 ships are waiting for port departures in the Gulf, and supply on the other end of the oil market will be very ample. (Jin10 Data APP) South Korean government officials said on the 28th that the South Korean government decided to ease mandatory oil reserve requirements for private enterprises starting from the 29th to release private oil reserves to the market. The country has not yet decided when to release national oil reserves, keeping them as a "last card" to deal with potential oil crises. Yang Ki-wook, an official from South Korea's Ministry of Trade, Industry and Energy, announced on the same day that starting from the 29th, the government will reduce the mandatory oil reserve requirement for private oil companies from 40 days to 20 days, releasing oil reserves equivalent to 20 days of consumption. He stated that this measure was to fulfill commitments made to the International Energy Agency. (Jin10 Data APP) Spot market overview: ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ►

Driven by the global energy structure transformation and the "dual carbon" goals, battery technology is evolving from a traditional power storage medium into a core engine reshaping transportation, consumer electronics, and even the energy internet. From fundamental breakthroughs in materials science to the industrialisation of cutting-edge technologies such as solid-state and sodium-ion batteries, the battery industry is in a period of technological explosion with intense competition. This conference brings together the world's top scholars, industry chain leaders, and capital forces, aiming to break down barriers between industry, academia, research, and application. We will delve into key topics including high energy density, ultimate safety, ultra-fast charging technology, and recycling, jointly charting a new blueprint for green, efficient, and sustainable energy. Nayuan New Materials Technology (Wuxi) Co., Ltd. will attend this grand event to discuss industry development trends with industry peers and jointly drive battery technology to new heights. form to sign up immediately, witness and participate in this significant and far-reaching industry event, and create a brilliant new chapter together! Nayuan New Materials Technology (Wuxi) Co., Ltd. was established in March 2022, headquartered in Xinwu District, Wuxi, Jiangsu Province. It is a national-level high-tech enterprise specialising in the R&D, production, and sales of cathode materials for sodium-ion batteries. Core Products and Technological Advantages The company's core product is the modified polyanion sodium iron sulphate (NFS) cathode material system (main material + dedicated additive), making it currently the only enterprise in China capable of providing NFS core "hard" additives at scale. Nayuan New Materials pioneered the "scaffold-building" additive technology, successfully overcoming three major industry-wide challenges of NFS materials — low compaction density, cell swelling and gassing, and rapid degradation during high-temperature cycling. Meanwhile, the Nayuan NFS system material achieves an electrode compaction density of 2.7 g/cm³, combined with a high average voltage of 3.7 V, as well as good moisture resistance, enabling broad compatibility with existing LFP and ternary lithium battery cell production lines for mass production. Based on the same platform technology, the next-generation anode-free sodium-ion battery can be developed with an energy density of 220 Wh/kg, and the anode-free all-solid-state sodium-ion battery can achieve an energy density of 320 Wh/kg, surpassing mainstream LFP levels while reducing material costs by 70%–80% compared to LFP, featuring a 3.7 V high-voltage platform and water-soluble easy-to-recycle characteristics. Team and R&D The company was founded by a doctoral team with extensive German industrial and research backgrounds. Founder and Chairman Dr. Liu Zhongqing holds a doctoral degree from Germany. He conducted postdoctoral research at the Jülich Research Centre (in the team of Chinese Academy of Engineering member Martin Winter), and subsequently worked in product development at SCHOTT Group in Germany and energy research at the University of Oxford, combining academic depth with industrial experience. Over 40% of the company's employees are R&D personnel. The company has established an R&D centre and an engineering technology centre at its Wuxi headquarters, as well as an R&D centre and a lab-scale/pre-pilot line in Suzhou. It has assembled more than 30 high-end sci-tech talents, including PhDs and master's degree holders, filed 25 invention patents (9 granted), and participated in formulating 3 industry standards for sodium-ion batteries. Capacity Layout and Industrialisation Nayuan New Materials has completed a leapfrog development of NFS materials from R&D to mass production: the 5 kt NFS mass production line in Jiangxi has achieved full capacity, while the 10 kt-level production line in Lu'an, Anhui is being accelerated. The company has sent samples to over 100 clients for testing and secured kt-level orders. Its products precisely cover scenarios including light-duty power (two-wheelers/three-wheelers), start-stop power supply, and UPS, while proactively expanding into high-end applications such as aircraft, robotics, energy storage, and AIDC backup power. Honours and Recognition In 2024, the company was recognised as a National High-tech Enterprise. At the 2nd China Sodium-ion Battery Conference, it won two awards (Technology Innovation Breakthrough Enterprise and Young Talent Award). Dr. Liu Zhongqing was honoured with the 20th Jiangsu May Fourth Youth Medal in 2026. Product application scenarios encompass light-duty power batteries, start-stop batteries, household ESS, and distributed ESS, meeting users' core demands for safety, long lifespan, and low cost. Long press 2026 SMM Battery Technology Conference

SMM News, May 25: Metals market: As of the midday close, base metals on the domestic market mostly rose. SHFE copper gained 1.06%. SHFE aluminum fell 0.47%. SHFE lead rose 0.06%, SHFE zinc rose 0.34%. SHFE tin gained 1.22%. SHFE nickel rose 0.23%. In addition, the most-traded casting aluminum futures fell 0.54%, the most-traded alumina futures rose 0.37%. The most-traded lithium carbonate futures rose 0.58%. The most-traded silicon metal futures rose 1.07%. The most-traded polysilicon futures rose 0.48%. Ferrous metals all rose. Iron ore gained 0.25%, rebar rose 1.23%, hot-rolled coil rose 1.03%, and stainless steel edged up. Coking coal and coke: the most-traded coking coal contract and the most-traded coke contract hit the daily limit up with gains of 7.97% and 7.99%, respectively. Overseas base metals: The London Metal Exchange (LME) was closed on May 25 for the UK bank holiday and will resume trading on May 26. Precious metals: as of 11:38, COMEX gold rose 0.86% and COMEX silver gained 2.44%. Domestic precious metals: the most-traded SHFE gold futures rose 0.64% and the most-traded SHFE silver futures rose 2.27%. In addition, as of the midday close, the most-traded platinum futures fell 0.2% and the most-traded palladium futures rose 0.01%. As of the midday close, the most-traded Europe containerized freight index contract fell 3.36% to 2,901 points. As of 11:38 on May 25, midday futures quotes for selected contracts: Spot and fundamentals Copper: Today, #1 copper cathode spot prices in North China against the front-month contract were reported at an average discount of 360 yuan/mt to a discount of 280 yuan/mt. The average price fell 10 yuan/mt from the previous trading day, and the average transaction price was 105,230 yuan/mt, up 1,035 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Macro front Domestic: [Huawei Announces Semiconductor Tao's Law] On May 25, Huawei officially announced a new law in the semiconductor field. "Tao's Law" proposes replacing "geometric scaling" with "temporal scaling," achieving new breakthroughs in transistor density and system performance through logic folding technology. This marks the first time China has proposed a new principle guiding industrial development in the global semiconductor field. By 2031, high-end chip transistor density based on this law is expected to reach the equivalent level of the 1.4nm process node. (People's Daily) [PBOC Reverse Repo Operations Result in Net Injection of 257 billion yuan Today] The PBOC conducted 258 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repo operations in the open market, with an operation rate of 1.40%, unchanged from the previous day. 1 billion yuan of reverse repos matured today. On the US dollar: As of 11:38, the US dollar index fell 0.3% to 99.03. Kevin Hassett, chief economic adviser to US President Trump, said he believes that the eventual decline in oil prices will create room for the Fed to cut interest rates. "We again expect that once a deal is reached, energy prices will plunge," Hassett said. "When that happens, the Fed will have plenty of room to take the right action and lower interest rates." He emphasized that he respects the Fed's independence and praised Kevin Warsh, who was sworn in as Fed Chairman last Friday. Although the surge in US fuel prices caused by Iran's closure of the Strait of Hormuz poses a growing political risk to Trump and his Republican Party in the November midterm elections, Hassett believes that the accelerating inflation is mainly driven by energy prices. "If you look at the last few data reports, energy prices are absolutely concerning, but core prices have barely moved at all," he said. "I think once we see energy prices pull back, due to declining energy prices, you may actually see negative inflation." (Jin10 Data) According to CME's "FedWatch": the probability that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged in June was 97.3%, and the probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point rate hike was 2.7%. The probability that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged in July was 84.8%, the probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point rate hike was 14.8%, and the probability of a cumulative 50-basis-point rate hike was 0.3%. (Jin10 Data) On data: Today, data including China's year-to-date installed power generation capacity in April and its year-on-year rate will be released. In addition, attention should be paid to: 500 billion yuan of 1-year medium-term lending facility (MLF) and 1 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repos will mature today. In addition, it is worth noting that due to the Memorial Day holiday, US stock markets will be closed for one day on May 25 (Monday); CME's precious metals and US crude oil futures contract trading will end early at 02:30 Beijing time on the 26th, and US stock and US Treasury futures contract trading will end early at 01:00 Beijing time on the 26th. Due to the Buddha's Birthday holiday, Hong Kong stock markets will be closed for one day on May 25 (Monday), with both southbound and northbound trading suspended; South Korean stock markets will also be closed for one day on the same day. In addition, due to the Spring Bank Holiday, the UK stock market will be closed on Monday, May 25; trading of ICE Brent crude oil futures contracts will end early at 01:30 Beijing time on May 26. Investors are advised to take note. (Jin10 Data) Overseas exchange closure arrangements are as follows (all in Beijing time): Crude oil: As of 11:38, oil prices in both markets fell, with WTI down 5.92% and Brent down 5.32%. Rising expectations of a US-Iran deal boosted global risk sentiment, putting oil prices under pressure. The direct catalyst for the oil price decline was signs of improvement in actual transit conditions through the Strait of Hormuz. According to Iran's Islamic Republic News Agency citing a statement from the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, 33 vessels — including oil tankers, container ships, and other commercial vessels — passed through the Strait of Hormuz within 24 hours on Sunday after receiving authorization from the IRGC Navy. (Wallstreetcn) The Washington Post reported on May 24 that the US and Iran had reached agreement on a framework for a memorandum of understanding (MOU), which, once signed, would fully restore shipping through the Strait of Hormuz within 30 days. Citing an anonymous senior US government official, the report said the US and Iran had developed an MOU "framework" that includes a 60-day ceasefire extension to allow both sides to reach a "final agreement" on permanently ending hostilities with Iran, during which the Strait of Hormuz would be demined and reopened. The official said the MOU includes a "commitment" that Iran will not possess nuclear weapons. Over the next two months, the US and Iran will discuss the "mechanism" for implementing this commitment. However, neither side signed any agreement on May 24. (Xinhua) Trump said on social media on Saturday that a US-Iran deal was largely done, including the opening of the Strait of Hormuz, and told US representatives not to rush into a deal. But on Sunday he said the deal was "not fully done yet." US Secretary of State Marco Rubio had previously said there could be "some good news" on the Hormuz issue in the coming hours. Iran remained cautious. Iran's Tasnim News Agency warned that the draft agreement could still collapse due to US obstacles on several key terms — including Iran's demand for unfreezing assets. (Wallstreetcn) Spot market overview: ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ►

SMM Nickel News May 25: Macro and market news: (1) Waller was sworn in, emphasizing that the US Fed will be "reform-oriented"; US Fed Governor Waller: The current stance is to keep rates stable in the near term. If inflation expectations become unanchored, rate hikes will be needed. (2) The PBOC announced that to maintain ample liquidity in the banking system, on May 25, 2026, the People's Bank of China will conduct a 600 billion yuan MLF operation with a fixed quantity, rate tender, and multiple-price winning method, with a tenor of 1 year. Spot market: On May 25, SMM #1 refined nickel prices rose 500 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Spot premiums: Jinchuan #1 refined nickel averaged 1,150 yuan/mt, down 100 yuan/mt from the previous trading day, while domestic mainstream brand electrodeposited nickel ranged from -400 to 500 yuan/mt. Futures market: The most-traded SHFE nickel 2606 contract moved sideways in a narrow range during the morning session, closing at 143,810 yuan/mt, up 0.23%. Global visible inventory of refined nickel remains at high levels, and weak consumption is unable to quickly digest the surplus inventory. Nickel prices lack upward momentum, and the most-traded SHFE nickel contract is expected to move sideways within the range of 140,000-150,000 yuan/mt.

The PBOC announced that to maintain ample liquidity in the banking system, on May 25, 2026, the People's Bank of China will conduct a 600 billion yuan MLF operation with a tenor of 1 year through fixed-quantity, interest rate tender, and multiple-price winning method.

SMM May 23: Metals market: Last Friday's overnight domestic market saw base metals mostly rise. SHFE copper rose 0.58%. SHFE aluminum fell 0.14%, SHFE lead rose 0.3%. SHFE zinc fell 0.16%. SHFE tin rose 1.09%. SHFE nickel rose 0.49%. In addition, the most-traded alumina futures contract fell 0.77%, and the most-traded foundry aluminum futures contract fell 0.06%. Last Friday's overnight ferrous metals mostly fell. Iron ore was flat at 792.5 yuan/mt, stainless steel rose 0.34%, rebar edged down 0.09%, and hot-rolled coil fell 0.15%. Coking coal and coke: coking coal continued to fall for the third consecutive trading day, down 1.45%, and coke fell 0.95%. Last Friday's overnight overseas metals market saw LME base metals rise across the board. LME copper rose 0.18%. LME aluminum rose 0.45%, LME lead rose 0.4%. LME zinc edged up 0.06%. LME tin rose 1.16%. LME nickel rose 0.67%. Last Friday's overnight precious metals : COMEX gold fell 0.7%, posting a second consecutive weekly decline with a 1.13% weekly drop; COMEX silver fell 1.06%, falling for two consecutive weeks with a 2.1% weekly drop. Last Friday's overnight SHFE gold most-traded contract fell 0.1%, posting a second consecutive weekly decline with a 2.13% weekly drop; SHFE silver most-traded contract rose 0.51%, but SHFE silver fell for two consecutive weeks with a 7.81% weekly drop. As of 8:31 am on May 23, last Friday's overnight closing prices: Macro front China: [PBOC: 600 billion yuan MLF operation to be conducted on May 25] PBOC: To maintain ample liquidity in the banking system, on May 25, 2026, the People's Bank of China will conduct a 600 billion yuan MLF operation with a fixed quantity, interest rate tender, and multiple-price winning method, with a maturity of 1 year. [CSRC: Crackdown on illegal cross-border securities business; investors' property safety unaffected by the rectification] Xinhua News Agency reported that recently, with the approval of the State Council, the CSRC and seven other departments jointly issued the "Implementation Plan for Comprehensive Rectification of Illegal Cross-border Securities, Futures, and Fund Business Activities." Regarding this rectification, all parties are highly concerned about how the legitimate rights and interests of existing investors will be protected. In this regard, the plan emphasized that investors' property safety will not be affected by the rectification. A CSRC official said the plan specified numerous measures to safeguard the legitimate rights and interests of existing investors. For example, a 2-year concentrated rectification period will be set to phase out relevant domestic services of overseas institutions. Overseas institutions are required to properly communicate with investors affected by rectification measures in China and arrange account disposal to ensure client property safety. [Hong Kong SFC: Enhanced measures to address forged documents and money laundering risks and raise account opening standards] The Hong Kong SFC issued a circular on May 22, setting out the monitoring measures that should be implemented when opening accounts and maintaining customer relationships. The circular was issued following the SFC's review of account opening practices at 12 securities brokerages. The review identified multiple significant deficiencies, including inadequate due diligence on account opening documents, acceptance of suspicious or forged documents during the account opening process, and weaknesses in managing cross-border agency relationships with ex-China intermediaries. (Wallstreetcn) US dollar: Last Friday, the overnight US dollar index rose 0.12% to 99.32. On a weekly basis, the US dollar index posted its second consecutive weekly gain, up 0.04% for the week. The 17th Fed Chairman Warsh was sworn in at the White House on Friday. Warsh stated: "The Fed's mission is to promote price stability and full employment." He said, "When these goals are pursued with wisdom and clarity, independence and resolve, inflation can be lower, economic growth can be stronger, real take-home wages can be higher, America can be more prosperous, and just as importantly, America's standing in the world can be more secure." He added: "To fulfill this mission, I will lead a reform-oriented Fed that learns from past successes and mistakes, breaking free from static frameworks and models while adhering to clear standards of integrity and performance." (Jin10 Data) Fed Governor Waller's hawkish remarks put US Treasury prices under pressure, with money markets fully pricing in a 25-basis-point interest rate hike in 2026. The most significant policy signal on Friday came from Fed Governor Waller. On Friday local time, Fed Governor Waller stated that as the energy shock from the Iran war pushes up prices, he supports making it clear that the Fed's next rate move is as likely to be a hike as an interest rate cut. Waller said his current stance is to remain patient and keep rates unchanged until the impact of the war becomes clearer, but he warned on Friday that he does not rule out the possibility of future rate hikes if inflation does not begin to slow down soon. Waller's remarks were released almost simultaneously with the swearing-in of new Fed Chairman Warsh. The interest rate environment Warsh currently faces is notably more hawkish than the Fed's internal dot plot expectations. (Wall Street CN) "Fed whisperer" Nick Timiraos noted that there were several key moments during Kevin Warsh's swearing-in ceremony at the White House: ① Trump asked Warsh to be "completely independent." Trump said, "(I hope he) doesn't look at me, doesn't look at anybody." ② Just two minutes later, Trump offered some "suggestions" indicating the economic direction he hoped to see: "Strong economic growth doesn't need to be cooled down," "Economic growth does not mean inflation," and "I want the economy to boom to unprecedented levels, because there is indeed some debt to deal with." ③ Trump hinted that the US Fed's decision-making body would "converge." He said other Fed policymakers "will make their own decisions, but they will listen to Kevin throughout," even those "whose positions are slightly different." ④ Warsh referenced Greenspan, not Bernanke. Warsh recalled the historical scene of Greenspan being sworn in at the White House in 1987, and pledged to "begin work with abundant energy and a sense of mission, just as Chairman Greenspan did." He made no mention of former Chairman Bernanke, with whom he had worked for five years during his previous tenure as a governor. (Jin10 Data) In addition, affected by the Iran war, the US consumer confidence index in May fell to a historic low, and long-term inflation expectations also deteriorated significantly. Data showed that the University of Michigan's final reading of the May consumer confidence index dropped to 44.8, with consumers expecting prices to rise at an annualized rate of 3.9% over the next five to ten years, up from 3.5% in April and hitting a seven-month high. They also expected prices to rise 4.8% over the next year. Gasoline prices continued to hover near their highest levels since 2022, exacerbating Americans' concerns about rising living costs and the failure to reach a deal to end the war. The impact of inflation on household budgets, particularly for low-income consumers, poses risks to the future consumption outlook. Joanne Hsu, the survey director, stated: "Cost of living concerns remain the top issue on people's minds, with 57% of respondents spontaneously citing that high prices are eroding their personal finances, up from 50% last month." She stated: "The key point is that consumers appear worried that inflation will not only spread beyond fuel prices to other areas, but that this upward trend could persist well into the future." (Jin10 Data) Regarding other currencies: ECB President Lagarde stated that despite the deepening impact of the Iran conflict, long-term inflation expectations remained broadly in line with the 2% target. Although the energy crisis is pushing up inflation and dragging down the economy, long-term inflation expectations have remained well-anchored overall. The impact of this conflict on medium-term inflation and economic activity will depend on the intensity and duration of the energy price shock, as well as the scale of its indirect transmission effects. (Wall Street Journal) Bank of Japan Governor Ueda Kazuo said that Prime Minister Takaichi Sanae told him during their meeting on Friday that she hoped the BOJ would adopt appropriate policies, taking into account the government's price measures. Ueda Kazuo told reporters after the meeting with Takaichi Sanae at the Prime Minister's residence in Tokyo that it was a routine meeting between the two and that no specific details of monetary policy were discussed. (Wall Street Journal) On the macro front: Data to be released this week include the UK May CBI retail sales balance, US March FHFA house price index MoM, US March S&P/CS 20-city non-seasonally adjusted house price index YoY, US May Conference Board consumer confidence index, US May Dallas Fed business activity index, Australia April non-seasonally adjusted CPI YoY, New Zealand RBNZ interest rate decision through May 27, Switzerland May ZEW investor confidence index, US weekly ADP employment change for the week ending May 9, US May Richmond Fed manufacturing index, Eurozone May industrial confidence index, Eurozone May economic sentiment index, Canada Q1 current account, US initial jobless claims for the week ending May 23, US April core PCE price index YoY, US April personal spending MoM, US Q1 real GDP annualized QoQ revised, US April core PCE price index MoM, US April durable goods orders MoM, US April new home sales annualized, Japan April unemployment rate, France May CPI MoM preliminary, France Q1 GDP YoY final, Germany May seasonally adjusted unemployment change, Germany May seasonally adjusted unemployment rate, Germany May CPI MoM preliminary, Canada March GDP MoM, US May Chicago PMI, and China May official manufacturing PMI. In addition, other events to watch this week include: 500 billion yuan in 1-year medium-term lending facility (MLF) and 1 billion yuan in 7-day reverse repo maturing today; BOJ Governor Ueda Kazuo delivering a speech at a monetary policy conference hosted by the BOJ; the RBNZ releasing its interest rate decision and monetary policy statement; RBNZ Governor Breeman holding a monetary policy press conference; the ECB publishing the minutes of its April monetary policy meeting; permanent FOMC voter and New York Fed President Williams delivering a keynote speech at a conference co-organized by the Central Bank of Iceland; 2028 FOMC voter and St. Louis Fed President Musalem delivering a speech; Bank of England Governor Bailey delivering a speech; 2028 FOMC voter and Kansas City Fed President Schmid delivering a speech; and US Fed Governor Bowman delivering a speech. In addition, it is worth noting that due to the Memorial Day holiday, the US stock market will be closed for one day on May 25 (Monday). Trading of precious metals and WTI crude oil futures contracts under CME will end early at 02:30 Beijing time on May 26, and trading of US equity and Treasury futures contracts will end early at 01:00 Beijing time on May 26. Due to the Buddha's Birthday holiday, the Hong Kong stock market will be closed for one day on May 25 (Monday), with Southbound and Northbound trading suspended. The South Korean stock market will also be closed for one day on the same date. In addition, due to the Spring Bank Holiday, the UK stock market will be closed for one day on May 25 (Monday). Trading of Brent crude oil futures contracts under ICE will end early at 01:30 Beijing time on May 26. Investors are advised to take note. (Jin10 Data) The overseas market exchange closure schedule is as follows (all in Beijing time): Crude oil: Both oil futures rose during the overnight session last Friday, with WTI up 0.67% and Brent up 1.62%. On a weekly basis, WTI futures declined 3.98% for the week, and Brent futures declined 4.59% for the week. Since the ceasefire agreement was reached in April this year, US-Iran negotiations have remained deadlocked, with no comprehensive agreement to end the conflict in sight. Although a draft reportedly "close to being finalized" has been emerging, four core obstacles still stand in the way of lasting peace. According to Bloomberg, the Strait of Hormuz, nuclear issues, the Lebanon conflict, and sanctions currently constitute the four core points of divergence in the negotiations. For investors, this war has plunged global energy markets into severe turbulence, and any progress or breakdown in negotiations will have an impact on commodity prices. (Wallstreetcn) Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Baghaei stated on May 22 that it was premature to say a US-Iran agreement was close to being reached, as significant differences remained between the two sides. According to Iranian media reports on May 22, Baghaei, commenting on the visit of senior Pakistani officials to Tehran, said it indicated that the current situation had entered a "turning point or decisive stage." He mentioned that Pakistan's Chief of Army Staff Munir had visited Tehran and that related communications were still ongoing. When asked whether this meant a change in the negotiation process, Baghaei said it could not be said that a US-Iran agreement was close to being reached, as there were serious and wide-ranging differences between the US and Iran, and "diplomacy is a time-consuming process." Baghaei added that one should not expect to see results within weeks or months through several rounds of back-and-forth consultations. He emphasized that diplomatic negotiations are inherently a long-term process, and both sides are utilizing various opportunities to convey their respective positions. (Xinhua) Baker Hughes data showed that US drilling companies increased the number of oil and natural gas rigs for the fifth consecutive week. The total US oil rig count for the week ending May 22 was 425, compared to the previous reading of 415. In addition, Kazakhstan's national oil and gas company reported that Q1 oil production fell 12% YoY to 5.6 million mt. (Jin10 Data) According to Bloomberg, affected by the Iran war, the national average gasoline price in the US has surpassed $4.5 per gallon, with California exceeding $6. Despite high prices, consumers have not significantly reduced fuel purchases. For most Americans, driving to work and picking up children are daily necessities. Gasoline spending is nearly impossible to cut, and consumers can only reduce discretionary spending to balance their budgets. Philadelphia resident Avarisse Crawford said she has cut entertainment expenses, replacing steak dinners and bar outings with free park activities. The ongoing Middle East tensions continue to push oil prices higher. The effective blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has hindered global crude oil transportation, and US gasoline inventory has fallen to its lowest level for the same period since 2014. Morgan Stanley expects it to hit a seasonal historic low by the end of August. Facing persistently climbing oil prices, the Trump administration has successively released strategic petroleum reserves, waived the Jones Act, and discussed implementing a federal gasoline tax holiday, but the effects remain unclear. As the Memorial Day weekend kicks off the summer travel season, upward demand pressure is expected to further strain already tight inventories. (Wallstreetcn) Recommended Reading:

Futures: Overnight, LME lead opened at $2,005/mt and moved sideways during the Asian session. Entering the European session, it first dipped then rallied, touching a low of $1,995/mt before bears reduced positions. LME lead reached a high of $2,015/mt near the close, ultimately settling at $2,013/mt, up 0.4%. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE lead 2607 contract opened at 16,735 yuan/mt, briefly touched a high of 16,780 yuan/mt at the start of the session before moving sideways, and ultimately settled at 16,775 yuan/mt, up 0.24%. On the macro front: Waller was sworn in, emphasizing that the US Fed will be "reform-oriented." US Fed Governor Waller stated that the current stance is to keep interest rates stable in the near term, and that interest rate hikes would be needed if inflation expectations become unanchored. US White House National Economic Council Director Hassett noted that a potential US-Iran deal could lead to a significant drop in energy prices and create room for the US Fed to cut interest rates. China's Ministry of Commerce reported that from January to April, national foreign investment absorption totaled 287.69 billion yuan, down 10.3% YoY. The CSRC and seven other departments jointly issued a document to crack down on illegal cross-border securities, futures, and fund business activities. The PBOC announced that it will conduct a 600 billion yuan MLF operation on May 25, with a tenor of one year. Hong Kong's stock market was closed on Monday, with southbound and northbound trading suspended. : In the Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Shanghai market, warrant quotations remained scarce, and suppliers mainly traded cargoes self-picked up from primary lead smelters. SHFE lead continued to hold up well, and suppliers shipped along with the market. However, some smelters held prices firm on shipments due to limited inventory. Mainstream production areas quoted primary lead at premiums of 0-50 yuan/mt against the SMM #1 lead average price on an ex-factory basis, with a few regions quoting premiums of 150-200 yuan/mt ex-factory. Additionally, as lead prices rebounded, secondary lead losses were repaired, and smelter shipment sentiment improved. Mainstream production areas quoted secondary refined lead at discounts of 50-0 yuan/mt against SMM #1 lead on an ex-factory basis, with a few premiums of 50 yuan/mt still available. However, downstream enterprises had limited rigid demand, especially after lead prices rose, with more downstream enterprises adopting a wait-and-see approach and declining inquiry enthusiasm, resulting in sluggish spot market transactions. Inventory: On May 22, LME lead inventory was unchanged from the previous day at 286,475 mt. As of May 21, SMM lead ingot social inventory across five locations totaled 73,300 mt, an increase of 2,300 mt from May 14. Lead price forecast for today: Lower lead futures prices generated some stocking demand from downstream buyers on dips. Combined with reduced lead imports, this contributed to lead ingot destocking and supported lead prices to rebound after testing lows. Meanwhile, secondary lead enterprises are gradually resuming production, and secondary refined lead transaction prices have shifted to discounts (against the SMM #1 lead average price). The incremental supply is expected to put pressure on the sustainability of subsequent lead ingot destocking, limiting upside room for lead prices. Data Source Statement: All data other than public information is SMM processed data based on public information, market communication, and SMM's internal database model, for reference only and does not constitute decision-making advice.

SMM April 30: Metals market: As of the midday close, domestic base metals mostly fell, with SHFE copper edging up slightly. SHFE aluminum fell 0.41%, SHFE lead fell 0.66%, SHFE zinc fell 0.8%, SHFE tin rose 0.44%, and SHFE nickel edged down 0.02%. In addition, the most-traded casting aluminum futures fell 0.3%, and the most-traded alumina contract fell 0.11%. The most-traded lithium carbonate contract rose 2.52%. The most-traded silicon metal contract fell 0.46%. The most-traded polysilicon futures fell 0.97%. Ferrous metals all rose, with iron ore up 0.89%, rebar up 0.69%, hot-rolled coil up 0.77%, and stainless steel up 1.43%. Coking coal and coke: the most-traded coking coal contract rose 1.42%, and the most-traded coke contract rose 0.66%. Overseas base metals, as of 11:40, LME metals mostly rose. LME copper rose 0.42%, LME aluminum fell 0.32%, LME lead rose 0.26%, LME zinc fell 0.09%, LME tin rose 0.97%, and LME nickel rose 0.86%. Precious metals, as of 11:40, COMEX gold rose 0.28% and COMEX silver rose 0.79%. Domestic precious metals: the most-traded SHFE gold contract fell 0.29%, and the most-traded SHFE silver contract fell 0.29%. In addition, as of the midday close, the most-traded platinum futures fell 0.81%, and the most-traded palladium futures rose 0.89%. As of the midday close, the most-traded Europe containerized freight index contract rose 1.52% to 2,296.2 points. As of 11:40 on April 30, midday futures quotes for selected contracts: Spot and Fundamentals Copper: Today, Guangdong #1 copper cathode spot prices against the front-month contract: high-quality copper was quoted at a premium of 320 yuan/mt, unchanged from the previous trading day; standard-quality copper was quoted at a premium of 240 yuan/mt, unchanged from the previous trading day; SX-EW copper was quoted at a premium of 180 yuan/mt, unchanged from the previous trading day. The average price of Guangdong #1 copper cathode was 101,575 yuan/mt, up 35 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; the average price of SX-EW copper was 101,475 yuan/mt, up 35 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Spot market: Guangdong inventory saw a significant decline today... Macro Front China: [NBS: April Manufacturing PMI at 50.3%, China's Overall Economic Output Remained in Expansion Territory] The NBS Survey Center for Services and the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing released China's April PMI today. The manufacturing PMI continued to operate in expansion territory after rebounding into expansion territory in March, indicating that the overall manufacturing prosperity level remained stable and the manufacturing sector maintained a sound operating trend. In April, China's manufacturing PMI stood at 50.3%, down 0.1 percentage point MoM, remaining in expansion territory for the second consecutive month. [PBOC reverse repo operations achieved net injection of 125.7 billion yuan for the day and net withdrawal of 197.9 billion yuan for the week] The PBOC conducted 126.2 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repo operations today. As 500 million yuan of 7-day reverse repos matured today, the net injection for the day was 125.7 billion yuan. This week, the PBOC conducted a total of 414.1 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repo operations. As a total of 600 billion yuan of 1-year MLF and 12 billion yuan of reverse repos matured this week, the net withdrawal for the week was 197.9 billion yuan. (Jin10 Data) US dollar: As of 11:40, the US dollar index rose 0.03% to 98.98. The US Fed kept interest rates unchanged as expected, with notable internal divisions emerging. Fed Chairman Powell stated at the press conference that although someone voted against maintaining the dovish language in the statement at the most recent monetary policy meeting, he believed officials were not inclined to raise rates. Powell said: "People are not saying we need to raise rates now; it's more of a discussion about whether the Fed should adopt a neutral stance on the policy outlook." Fed Chairman Powell stated at the press conference that monetary policy may be in a range that is neutral in its impact on the economy. He said: "I think we are very close to the neutral rate, which is probably in the range of 3% to 4%, and the current federal funds target rate range is 3.5% to 3.75%." He added: "If we need to raise rates, we will signal and raise them, and vice versa." Fed Chairman Powell said Wednesday that continuing to serve as a governor after his chairmanship ends is to help stabilize the Fed before political pressure subsides. Powell said at the press conference: "As long as I feel it is appropriate to stay, I will stay." He added: "I don't want to be some kind of high-profile dissenter or anything like that." US President Trump said: "Mr. Too Late" Powell wants to stay at the Fed because he can't find a job anywhere else — nobody wants him. US Treasury Secretary Bessent stated that outgoing Fed Chairman Powell remaining as a Fed governor would be extraordinary. For someone who has always emphasized norms, his unilateral decision runs counter to tradition. Kevin Warsh will bring a new chapter to the US Fed with a clear accountability system, effective governance mechanisms, and sound policymaking. According to the CME "FedWatch": the probability of the US Fed maintaining rates unchanged through June was 99%, with a 1% probability of a cumulative 25 basis point cut. The probability of maintaining rates unchanged through July was 99%, with a 1% probability of a cumulative 25 basis point cut. The probability of maintaining rates unchanged through September was 98.8%, with a 1.2% probability of a cumulative 25 basis point cut. (Jin10 Data) A CITIC Securities research report maintained its previous view, expecting one 25bps interest rate cut in H2 under the baseline scenario after Warsh assumes the chairmanship. We believe close attention should be paid to speeches by the 12 sitting voting members going forward, as the US Fed's monetary policy path will depend more on the vote balance among FOMC members, while the guiding role of the Fed Chairman's personal remarks on markets has diminished compared to the past. A CICC research report stated that from a fundamental theoretical perspective, the US Fed should still and needs to cut interest rates approximately twice, which is one reason we are more optimistic than the market on rate cuts. As long as oil prices do not stay persistently above $100 through year-end, the high base effect driving inflation to pull back can provide room for the US Fed to cut interest rates. However, in practice, this will require cooperation from oil prices and Trump. The stalemate over the Iran situation keeping oil prices staying high, and Powell's reluctance to fully step back due to concerns over the investigation causing divisions within the US Fed, are not problems Warsh can single-handedly resolve after taking over in June. The key lies with Trump — if a compromise is reached swiftly and the investigation into Powell is conclusively ended, the prospects for interest rate cuts will gradually open up. On the data front: Data to be released today include: France Q1 GDP year-on-year preliminary, France April CPI month-on-month preliminary, Switzerland April KOF Leading Economic Indicator, Germany April seasonally adjusted unemployment change, Germany April seasonally adjusted unemployment rate, Germany Q1 non-seasonally adjusted GDP year-on-year preliminary, Eurozone April CPI year-on-year preliminary, Eurozone April CPI month-on-month preliminary, Eurozone Q1 GDP year-on-year preliminary, Eurozone March unemployment rate, UK Bank of England interest rate decision as of April 30, Eurozone ECB deposit facility rate as of April 30, Eurozone ECB main refinancing rate as of April 30, US initial jobless claims for the week ending April 25, US March core PCE price index year-on-year, US March personal spending month-on-month, US Q1 Employment Cost Index quarter-on-quarter, US Q1 real GDP annualized quarter-on-quarter preliminary, US Q1 real personal consumption expenditure quarter-on-quarter preliminary, US Q1 core PCE price index annualized quarter-on-quarter preliminary, US March core PCE price index month-on-month, and US April Chicago PMI. Also worth watching: the US Fed FOMC interest rate decision; Fed Chairman Powell's monetary policy press conference; Google's earnings call; earnings calls from Microsoft, Amazon, and Meta; Samsung Electronics' earnings call; the Bank of England's interest rate decision, meeting minutes, and monetary policy report; Bank of England Governor Bailey's monetary policy press conference; the ECB's interest rate decision; ECB President Lagarde's monetary policy press conference. Notably, the Shanghai Gold Exchange, SHFE, Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange, and DCE had no night session trading on April 30 ahead of Labour Day holiday. Crude oil: As of 11:40, oil prices in both markets continued the previous trading day's rally, with WTI up 1.96% and Brent up 2.16%. The Strait of Hormuz standoff is pushing the oil market from a short-term shock toward lasting repricing. Brent crude rose for consecutive sessions as Trump insisted on a maritime "blockade" against Iran. Traders' optimism that a three-week ceasefire could restore Gulf energy flows was fading. (Wallstreetcn) Bloomberg reported on the 29th that, according to a senior White House official, the US government was seeking to "seize" two Iran-linked oil tankers recently intercepted by the US Navy. The official said the DOJ had initiated "seizure" proceedings but did not elaborate on what the process entailed, nor whether it indicated the US planned to "seize" the crude oil aboard. The official, speaking on condition of anonymity citing "operational security," declined to disclose how the vessels would ultimately be handled or comment on their current routes. According to the US Department of Defense, the US Navy intercepted and boarded two tankers "transporting oil from Iran" in the Indian Ocean on the 20th and 22nd respectively. The two tankers continued sailing in the Indian Ocean over the following days and appeared to have changed course multiple times. (Xinhua) (Jin10 Data APP) Spot market overview: ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ►

SMM April 27 News: Metals market: As of the midday close, domestic market base metals rose across the board. SHFE copper was up 0.38%, SHFE aluminum up 0.3%, SHFE lead up 0.3%, SHFE zinc up 0.7%, SHFE tin up 0.48%, and SHFE nickel up 2.62%. In addition, the most-traded casting aluminum futures rose 0.4%, the most-traded alumina contract rose 3.36%, the most-traded lithium carbonate contract rose 2.75%, the most-traded silicon metal contract rose 0.29%, and the most-traded polysilicon futures fell 4.47%. Ferrous metals mostly rose. Iron ore was flat at 786 yuan/mt, rebar edged up, hot-rolled coil rose 0.15%, and stainless steel rose 1.26%. Coking coal and coke: the most-traded coking coal contract rose 1.23%, and the most-traded coke contract rose 0.44%. Overseas market base metals: as of 11:43, LME metals mostly rose. LME copper was up 0.51%, LME aluminum up 0.95%, LME lead up 0.1%, LME zinc up 0.58%, LME tin edged down, and LME nickel was up 0.71%. Precious metals: as of 11:43, COMEX gold fell 0.11% and COMEX silver fell 0.38%. Domestic precious metals: the most-traded SHFE gold contract rose 0.12%, and the most-traded SHFE silver contract fell 0.08%. In addition, as of the midday close, the most-traded platinum futures rose 1.21%, and the most-traded palladium futures rose 1.52%. As of the midday close, the most-traded Europe containerized freight index contract rose 1.03% to 2,209.8 points. As of 11:43 on April 27, midday futures quotes for selected contracts: Spot and fundamentals Copper: Today, Guangdong #1 copper cathode spot prices against the front-month contract: high-quality copper was quoted at a premium of 280 yuan/mt, flat with the previous trading day; standard-quality copper was quoted at a premium of 200 yuan/mt, flat with the previous trading day; SX-EW copper was quoted at a premium of 140 yuan/mt, flat with the previous trading day. The average price of Guangdong #1 copper cathode was 103,085 yuan/mt, up 290 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; the average price of SX-EW copper was 102,985 yuan/mt, up 290 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Spot market: After the weekend, Guangdong inventory declined again, mainly due to fewer arrivals and some manufacturers stockpiling ahead of the holiday... Macro front China: [NBS: January-March profits of China's above-scale industrial enterprises rose 15.5% YoY; non-ferrous sector profits surged 116.7% YoY] NBS data showed that from January to March, total profits of China's above-scale industrial enterprises reached 1.696 trillion yuan, up 15.5% YoY. From January to March, among above-scale industrial enterprises, state-controlled enterprises posted profits of 619.61 billion yuan (up 10.1% YoY), joint-stock enterprises 1.305 trillion yuan (up 20.9%), foreign-invested and Hong Kong, Macao, and Taiwan-invested enterprises 383.73 billion yuan (up 1.2%), and private enterprises 430.53 billion yuan (up 25.4%). Yu Weining, Chief Statistician of the Industrial Department of the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), interpreted the industrial enterprise profit data for January–March 2026: In Q1, facing a complex economic environment, the CPC Central Committee and the State Council promptly stepped up macro regulation efforts and proactively implemented more active and effective macro policies. The industrial economy steadily rebounded, profits of above-designated-size industrial enterprises grew at a faster pace, profits in equipment manufacturing and high-tech manufacturing grew rapidly, profits in raw material manufacturing posted double-digit growth, and the efficiency of industrial enterprises continued to improve. [National Energy Administration: China's Oil and Gas Supply Was Generally Stable and Orderly in Q1] The National Energy Administration held a press conference on April 27 to brief on the national energy situation and development achievements in Q1 2026. Xing Yiteng, Deputy Director of the Development Planning Department of the National Energy Administration, noted that energy security was effectively safeguarded. The impacts of the Venezuela crisis and the US-Israel-Iran conflict on China's energy supply were properly managed. In Q1, China's oil and gas supply was generally stable and orderly, with above-designated-size industrial crude oil and natural gas production up 1.3% and 3.0% YoY, respectively. Raw coal production remained stable despite a relatively high base in the same period last year, with above-designated-size industrial raw coal production up 0.1% YoY. The safety situation in the power sector was stable and improving, with efficient completion of power emergency responses to various natural disasters and successful completion of power supply assurance for the Chinese New Year and the Two Sessions. (Jin10 Data) [PBOC Achieved a Net Withdrawal of 382 Billion Yuan via Reverse Repo Operations] The PBOC conducted 218.5 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repo operations today. As 600 billion yuan of 1-year MLF and 500 million yuan of 7-day reverse repo operations matured today, a net withdrawal of 382 billion yuan was achieved. (Jin10 Data APP) US dollar: As of 11:43, the US dollar index fell 0.08% to 98.42. Multiple sources revealed that the US Department of Justice was expected to conclude its criminal investigation into Fed Chairman Jerome Powell as early as Friday, thereby ending the standoff that could have delayed the appointment of Powell's successor. Sources said senior DOJ officials recently contacted several senators, including Republican Senator Tom Tillis, a member of the Senate Banking Committee, informing them of plans to drop the investigation into alleged cost overruns in the renovation of the US Fed's Washington headquarters and refer the matter to the Fed's internal watchdog. Powell's term is set to expire next month, but he indicated in March that he would remain in office until Trump's nominee for Fed Chairman, Kevin Warsh, is confirmed. According to the CME "Fed Watch" tool, the probability of the US Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in April was 100%. The probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point interest rate cut by June was 4.7%, while the probability of keeping rates unchanged was 95.3%. (Jin10 Data) Data: Germany's May GfK Consumer Confidence Index, the UK's April CBI Retail Sales Balance, and the US April Dallas Fed Business Activity Index are scheduled for release today. Crude oil: As of 11:43, oil prices in both markets rose, with WTI up 0.85% and Brent up 1.11%. Crude oil futures rose at the start of Monday's session as peace talks between the US and Iran reached an impasse, while oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz remained limited, keeping global oil supply under sustained pressure. Crude oil futures prices swung wildly recently, as traders had to predict not only when oil exports from the Persian Gulf would resume, but also how long it would take for production in the region to recover to pre-war levels. Trump said on Sunday that Iran was facing growing domestic pressure due to its inability to export oil, which could cause long-term damage to its energy export infrastructure. Goldman Sachs analysts said on Sunday that they had pushed back their expectations for the Strait of Hormuz to return to normal export levels from mid-May to late June. Meanwhile, they raised their Q4 WTI crude oil price expectations from $75 per barrel to $83 per barrel. (Jin10 Data) Citi raised its forecast for the average Brent crude oil price for the remainder of 2026 on Sunday evening local time, stating that if oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz continued to be disrupted through the end of June, oil prices could rise to $150 per barrel. The bank raised its base-case average price forecasts for Brent crude oil in Q2, Q3, and Q4 of 2026 to $110, $95, and $80 per barrel, respectively. Citi also pushed back its expectations for the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz from mid-to-late April to the end of May. Citi stated: "Given that significant gaps remain between the two sides on their respective red-line issues, we believe the risks are tilted toward the upside for near-term bullish sentiment and H2 2026 base-case oil price forecasts." In the bullish scenario (30% probability), Citi assumed that oil shipment disruptions would persist through the end of June at a scale similar to the current level of disruption. Under this scenario, Brent prices could surge to $150 per barrel, with Q2 and Q3 2026 averages approaching $130 per barrel, before pulling back to around $100 in Q4. The bank also proposed a "super bullish" scenario in which the Strait of Hormuz remained closed beyond June, noting that this would have severe implications for the share of oil expenditure in both global and US economic output. Spot Market Overview: ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ►

A total of 17 billion yuan in reverse repo operations matured on the PBOC's open market this week, with 500 million, 5 billion, 6 billion, 500 million, and 5 billion yuan due from Monday through Friday, respectively. In addition, 600 billion yuan in medium-term lending facility (MLF) matured on Monday. The PBOC conducted 400 billion yuan in 1-year MLF operations on Monday, resulting in a net withdrawal of 200 billion yuan.