[SMM Tin Midday Commentary: Tin Prices Stabilized and Fluctuated Amid a Geopolitical Stalemate, While Spot Market Trading Turned Subdued]

[Developments in the Outside-China Lead Market] According to Notice No. 26,094-96 issued by the LME, the suspension of trading in the UMICORE 99.99, 99.985, and 99.97 lead brands produced by Umicore has been lifted, and these brands will continue to be used for warrant transactions on the London Metal Exchange (LME). It was reported that, according to Notice No. 26 005-007 issued by the LME on January 2, 2026, effective April 2, 2026, the three lead ingot brands produced by Umicore will no longer be accepted for warranting by the London Metal Exchange (LME).

According to foreign media reports, as the ongoing escalation of geopolitical conflict in the Middle East disrupted navigation through the Strait of Hormuz, shipments of aluminum products in the region had “stalled.” Mercuria Energy Group, the world’s largest independent integrated energy and commodities trading house, was expected to urgently withdraw nearly 100,000 mt of aluminum from London Metal Exchange (LME) warehousing facilities to ease the supply gap in European and US markets. Three sources familiar with the matter revealed that Switzerland-based Mercuria had on Monday canceled warrants for, or earmarked for delivery, nearly 100,000 mt of aluminum stored in LME-approved warehouses at Port Klang. Mercuria has so far declined to comment on the move.

CME plans to approve the establishment of aluminum warehouses in Taiwan and Hong Kong, as this US commodity exchange intensifies efforts to compete with the London Metal Exchange (LME) in the Asian market. These new warehouse locations signify a major expansion of the exchange in Asia, where two-thirds of the world's aluminum was produced last year. Currently, the exchange's base metal warehouses in Asia are limited to Malaysia, Singapore, and South Korea.

SMM Morning Meeting Minutes: LME copper opened at $13,025/mt overnight, initially dipped to $12,975/mt, then fluctuated upward and touched a high of $13,228/mt near the close, finally settling at $13,185/mt, up 0.96%, with trading volume reaching 15,200 lots and open interest at 327,000 lots, an increase of 2,466 lots from the previous session, overall showing a pattern of bulls increasing positions. The most-traded SHFE copper contract 2603 opened at 101,740 yuan/mt overnight, touched a low of 101,280 yuan/mt at the beginning, then the center of copper prices gradually shifted upward and tested 102,500 yuan/mt, finally settling at 102,450 yuan/mt, up 0.93%, with trading volume reaching 41,800 lots and open interest at 165,000 lots, a decrease of 4,251 lots from the previous session, overall showing a pattern of bears reducing positions.

Data released by the London Metal Exchange (LME) showed that LME tin inventory continued its downward trend last week, with the latest inventory level at 2,155 mt, hitting a new two-year low. Data released by the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) indicated that during the week ending June 13, SHFE tin inventory pulled back, with weekly inventory decreasing by 3.59% to 7,107 mt, reaching a new four-month low. Note: Generally, a continuous decline in inventory at domestic and overseas exchanges will support futures prices, while the opposite will have a bearish impact on futures prices. Comparison of LME and SHFE tin inventory since 2023 The following are the tin inventory data for LME and SHFE since June 2025: (Unit: mt)

Data released by the London Metal Exchange (LME) showed that LME copper inventories continued to decline last week, with the latest inventory level reaching 114,475 mt, the lowest in over a year. The latest data released by the Shanghai Futures Exchange indicated that during the week of June 13, SHFE copper inventories dropped back slightly, with weekly inventories increasing by 5.08% to 101,943 mt. International copper inventories increased by 299 mt to 11,373 mt. Last week, COMEX copper inventories continued to increase, with the latest inventory level reaching 196,046 mt, hitting a nearly seven-year high. Note: Generally speaking, a continuous decline in inventories at domestic and overseas exchanges will support futures prices, while the opposite will have a bearish impact on futures prices. Comparison of Copper Inventories at the Three Major Exchanges Since 2023 The following are the copper inventory data at the three major exchanges since June 2025: (Unit: mt)

Data released by the London Metal Exchange (LME) showed that LME tin inventory declined overall last week and continued to pull back this week, with the latest inventory level at 2,415 mt, hitting a nearly two-year low. Data released by the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) indicated that SHFE tin inventory continued to decline in the week ending June 6, with weekly inventory decreasing by 9.07% to 7,372 mt, reaching a three-month low. Note: Generally, a continuous decline in inventory at domestic and overseas exchanges will support futures prices, while the opposite will have a bearish impact on futures prices. Comparison of tin inventory at the LME and SHFE since 2023 The following are tin inventory data at the LME and SHFE since May 2025: (Unit: mt)

Recently, Freeport-McMoRan Inc. (hereinafter referred to as "Freeport"), the largest copper producer in North America, stated that despite US President Trump's earlier claim that the copper tariffs he threatened to impose could support the US copper industry, the actual outcome might be counterproductive—tariffs could impact the economy, leading to a decline in copper demand, which would in turn be detrimental to the industry. Broad tariffs may instead dampen copper demand In recent times, US President Trump has threatened to impose tariffs on copper to drive the recovery of domestic industries. In late February this year, Trump instructed the US Secretary of Commerce to launch an investigation into foreign copper imports under Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act and submit a report within 270 days. As the largest copper producer in North America, the imposition of tariffs on copper imports by the US should have been a positive development for Freeport, as the company could profit by selling copper at a premium. However, the company's CEO has warned that tariffs could also have a negative impact on the company. "If global economic growth is hindered, it could impact copper prices," Kathleen Quirk, CEO of Freeport, said in an interview. "Ironically, if we try to build up the US copper industry, slower GDP growth and inflation could put significant pressure on copper mines here." Quirk claimed that the US copper industry is currently in a turbulent period. As many industries and applications, including automotive, consumer electronics, and residential construction, are highly dependent on copper, copper tariffs could impose high costs on various sectors of the US economy. Copper tariffs have both positive and negative implications for the company Under Trump's tariff threats, US copper prices have been pushed higher than those in other markets. Currently, copper prices on the Comex are about 9.3% higher than those on the London Metal Exchange (LME), providing traders and producers with greater incentive to continue shifting supplies to the US before potential copper tariffs take effect. In April this year, the premium for copper on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) relative to the LME even reached 13% at one point. At that time, Freeport claimed that such a level was equivalent to a financial benefit of approximately $800 million per year from its copper sales. Freeport owns seven open-pit mines and one smelter in the US, which means it produces about 70% of the refined copper in the country. Quirk stated, "We do benefit from copper tariffs because they raise the price of our copper in the US domestic market... but if there are hefty tariffs and a trade war, we will be concerned about global demand for copper." Quark stated that she maintains a "neutral" stance on copper tariff policies, believing that copper import tariffs have both advantages and disadvantages for her. She noted that Freeport also has copper production sites in Indonesia, Spain, Peru, and Chile, and that tariff-driven trade wars could harm market demand for copper. Compared to tariffs, Freeport has called on the Trump administration to adopt other incentives to promote copper mining in the US, such as the tax credits included in the Inflation Reduction Act—a benefit that US lithium and nickel miners are already eligible for. "The cost structure in the US is higher than globally," Quark said. "Therefore, if you want to protect this industry, you need to consider how to incentivize it."

According to SMM, inventory data released by the London Metal Exchange (LME) on June 9 showed that copper inventories fell by 10,000 mt or 7.55% to 122,400 mt. The Rotterdam warehouse saw the largest change, with a decrease of 7,200 mt.