SMM June 23: The most-traded SHFE lead 2608 contract opened at 16,420 yuan/mt during the day. In the morning session, prices fluctuated slightly around the intraday moving average, then weakened and fluctuated downward, dipping to an intraday low of 16,315 yuan/mt. In the afternoon, futures gradually recovered and rebounded, with prices steadily approaching the average line. Near the end of the session, the contract moved sideways in a narrow range of 16,370–16,400 yuan/mt and finally settled at 16,385 yuan/mt, recording a small bearish candlestick, down 65 yuan/mt or 0.4%. The SHFE lead 2607 contract recorded a trading volume of 29,824 lots and open interest of 43,541 lots. The SHFE lead 2608 contract recorded a trading volume of 31,280 lots and open interest of 69,530 lots. The most-traded SHFE lead contract officially rolled over to the 2608 contract. Currently, primary and secondary lead smelters in China are entering a concentrated maintenance period, creating strong market expectations of a contraction in lead raw material supply, which provides upward support to the futures market. After the Dragon Boat Festival holiday, downstream battery factories have gradually resumed production, generating short-term restocking demand driven by rigid needs. However, at the mid-year period, large downstream battery enterprises are entering the semi-annual financial closing and inventory check phase, which will temporarily slow down their concentrated procurement of lead ingots. The bullish impetus from rigid demand is relatively limited. The weak supply-demand situation makes it difficult to persistently boost lead prices upward. Lead prices are expected to remain in the doldrums in the short term. Data source statement: All data, except publicly available information, are processed by SMM based on public information, market communications, and SMM's internal database models. They are for reference only and do not constitute investment advice.

[SMM Lead Morning Meeting Summary: Macro and Fundamental Bullish and Bearish Factors Coexist, Lead Prices Expected to Consolidate] On Monday, the first round of high-level talks between the US and Iran concluded, and a joint statement released by Qatar and Pakistan showed that all parties reached a roadmap. After the Dragon Boat Festival holiday, lead ingot social inventory accumulated as expected, putting lead prices under pressure. Currently, in the mid-year period, upstream and downstream enterprises are facing...

SMM, June 22 – The most-traded SHFE lead 2608 contract opened at 16,420 yuan/mt during the day. The morning session saw small fluctuations around the intraday moving average before the futures fluctuated downward, touching a low of 16,315 yuan/mt. In the afternoon, the futures gradually recovered and rebounded, steadily approaching the moving average. Near the close, it moved sideways within the 16,370–16,400 yuan/mt range, eventually settling at 16,385 yuan/mt, forming a small bearish candlestick, down 65 yuan/mt, or 0.4%. Trading volume for the SHFE lead 2607 contract reached 29,824 lots, with open interest of 43,541 lots; the 2608 contract saw volume of 31,280 lots and open interest of 69,530 lots. The contract rollover of the most-traded SHFE lead contract was formally completed for the 2608 contract. Currently in China, primary and secondary lead smelters are entering a concentrated maintenance period, generating strong expectations of tightening lead raw material supply and providing upward support for the futures. Following the Dragon Boat Festival holiday, downstream battery factories have gradually resumed production, creating short-term rigid restocking demand. However, at the mid-year point, large downstream battery enterprises are entering their semi-annual accounting and inventory review period, which will temporarily slow down concentrated procurement of lead ingots. The bullish impetus from rigid demand is relatively limited. With both supply and demand remaining weak, it is difficult for the supply-demand dynamics to consistently boost lead prices. Lead prices are expected to remain in the doldrums in the near term. Data source declaration: Data not originating from publicly available information has been processed by SMM based on publicly available information, market communication, and internal SMM database models and is for reference only. It does not constitute any decision-making advice.

[Secondary Lead Market Update] A secondary lead smelter in east China planned to resume production in mid-June, but suspended material feeding due to equipment failure discovered during furnace drying. It currently plans to resume material feeding and production in early to mid-July.

[SMM Lead Morning Meeting Minutes: Fundamentals Moderate While Macro Conditions Complex, Short-term Lead Prices to Retrace Some Gains] Recently, the macroeconomic situation outside China has been complex, market risk-averse sentiment has been relatively strong, and maintenance at China's primary lead and secondary lead enterprises has increased...

This week (June 12, 2026 – June 18, 2026), the average operating rate of primary lead smelters across three provinces was 65.19%, down 1.01 percentage points WoW. This week, production at smelters in Henan and Yunnan remained stable, with overall operating rates basically flat WoW. A medium-sized smelter in Hunan began equipment maintenance early in the week, with production expected to resume after maintenance concludes in mid-July, leading to a slight pullback in the regional operating rate. In other regions, a smelter in Jiangxi slightly ramped up production this week following the completion of maintenance, driving the operating rate in east China higher.

It is learned that as of June 18, the in-factory inventory of major primary lead delivery brands stood at 7,100 mt, down 4,000 mt WoW. This week, maintenance activities increased at both primary and secondary lead smelters, tightening the supply of lead ingots. Moreover, as most primary lead enterprises had pre-sold the majority of this week's lead ingot output last week, primary lead smelters maintained low inventories. During the Dragon Boat Festival, many downstream enterprises planned to take holidays, leading to a lack of lead consumption. After the holiday, primary lead smelters may face inventory buildup risks.

SMM, June 18: This week, SMM #1 lead ingot prices fluctuated upward from early to mid-week, then came under pressure and pulled back near the weekend. Driven by tight raw material inventories and bullish sentiment on lead prices, a small number of secondary lead smelters slightly raised their purchase prices for scrap batteries, while most producers kept their offers flat with last week. The industry remained in losses, with enterprises unwilling to actively raise prices to source materials, and the market largely adopted a wait-and-see approach. With lead prices weak and downstream consumption sluggish, smelters, despite low raw material inventories, had no incentive to raise prices for restocking. The anti-decline property of scrap battery prices became evident, and smelters also held a wait-and-see stance on price adjustments during the lead price uptrend. Next week, with smelters simultaneously undergoing production cuts, shutdowns, and resumptions, demand for scrap battery feedstock is mixed between bullish and bearish factors, and scrap battery purchase prices are expected to remain stable in the near term.

Next week, on the macro data front, the US May core PCE price index YoY rate, US May personal spending MoM rate, and the Eurozone June manufacturing PMI flash reading are about to be released. The US Fed left interest rates unchanged in June as expected, but the meeting sent a clear hawkish signal, including a sharp upward revision to inflation forecasts and a dot plot showing that a majority of officials expected rate hikes within the year. In addition, the US-Iran memorandum of understanding was officially signed and entered into force, initiating a 60-day negotiation period, while the latest foreign media reports indicate that Israel has again attacked Lebanon, leaving Middle East peace talks still uncertain. On the LME lead front, LME lead inventories have been on a downtrend for three consecutive weeks, but total inventory remains at a high level of 300,000 mt. During this period, the LME Cash-3M spread shifted from a premium last week to a discount, latest at -$28.4/mt. Meanwhile, new progress emerged in the Middle East peace talks, and expectations for US Fed rate hikes within the year rose. With a complex macro environment, lead prices are expected to continue consolidating, and the consolidation range will widen, with LME lead trading in the range of $1,955-2,000/mt. On the SHFE lead side, after the Dragon Boat Festival holiday, production resumptions at downstream enterprises will bring some rigid demand. However, it should be noted that at the half-year mark, large downstream enterprises will close their books and take stock, and lead ingot purchasing will be suspended, providing limited support for lead prices. Meanwhile, maintenance at primary and secondary lead smelters is increasing, and supply tightening expectations support stronger lead prices. Under the combined effect of these factors, the most-traded SHFE lead contract is expected to trade in the range of 16,250-16,650 yuan/mt next week. Spot price forecast: 16,150-16,450 yuan/mt. Due to smelter maintenance in mid-to-late June, lead ingot supply will be relatively tight. However, with the ongoing mid-year capital recouping, suppliers will continue to clear inventory and sell, and spot lead is expected to maintain small discounts (vs. SMM# lead) when selling. On the consumption side, downstream enterprises also face mid-year capital recouping. Some enterprises will maintain production with their inventory or continue to pick up previously-ordered lead ingots, with actual procurement to be postponed.

SMM June 18 news: The most-traded SHFE lead 2607 contract opened at 16,450 yuan/mt intraday, fluctuated downward from the early session to the mid-session, hitting a low of 16,350 yuan/mt. It later recovered some losses and rebounded to move sideways in the 16,370-16,405 yuan/mt range, finally closing at 16,400 yuan/mt, recording a small bearish candlestick, down 70 yuan/mt or 0.43%. The last trading day before the Dragon Boat Festival holiday, compounded by disturbances from mid-year financial closing, led many enterprises to suspend shipments and settlements, with a strong wait-and-see sentiment prevailing in the market. Supply side, secondary lead smelters under maintenance were cutting or stopping production due to weak market conditions and raw material issues, while primary lead smelters faced tight ore supply. Some smelters saw production decline this week. As delivery-related matters gradually settled, the expected increase in lead ingot inventory after the holiday was weak. Overall, the trend of lead prices awaits tracking of actual production resumptions and operations. Data source statement: Except for public information, other data are based on public information, market communication, and SMM's internal database models, processed by SMM, and are for reference only, not constituting investment advice.