Spot market: SMM #1 lead ingot prices remained stable from the beginning of the week through mid-week, then declined toward the weekend. Ahead of the Labour Day holiday, downstream stocking willingness was subdued, with only sporadic rigid-demand purchases. Wait-and-see sentiment was strong, and overall spot order trading was sluggish. By region, Henan was dominated by long-term contract deliveries, with traders offering discounts of 200-130 yuan/mt against the SHFE lead 2606 contract, and transactions at high prices were lackluster. In Hunan, spot order premiums narrowed from 0-30 yuan/mt to 0-20 yuan/mt, with some traders making shipments at slight discounts. Jiangxi quotes remained firm, with premiums pulling back from 150 yuan/mt to 120 yuan/mt. In Guangdong, ex-factory premiums continued to decline throughout the week, narrowing from 70-80 yuan/mt to 30-50 yuan/mt. Overall, lead prices were stable early in the week before weakening. Smelters' sentiment to hold prices firm gradually softened with some price concessions, but downstream rigid demand weakened ahead of the holiday, the tug-of-war between sellers and buyers intensified, and spot cargo transactions were mediocre overall.

Next week, due to the Labour Day holiday, China's SHFE and other exchanges will be closed on May 4-5; the LME outside China will be closed on May 4 for the Early May Bank Holiday. Key macro economic data includes US April ADP employment, US April unemployment rate, and US April seasonally adjusted non-farm payrolls, which are about to be released. Additionally, according to the latest news, the first batch of US tariff refunds will be issued around May 11, indicating a loosening of tariff policies, while we need to continue monitoring the progress of US-Iran negotiations. LME lead side, LME lead inventory decline slowed down, while the LME Cash-3M spread maintained a slight discount for nearly a week, indicating strong support for lead prices. The impact of Middle East events on shipping has not yet been resolved, and spot supply in Southeast Asia remains tight, especially with high-grade lead ingot premiums at elevated levels. Lead prices are expected to continue consolidating and await new factors. LME lead is expected to trade in the range of $1,935-1,975/mt next week. SHFE lead side, downstream enterprises will be on concentrated holiday during Labour Day, while lead smelter maintenance or production shutdowns increased in April-May. However, the concentrated short-term consumption reduction still poses a significant risk of inventory buildup for lead ingots after the holiday. Combined with new delivery factors in May, lead prices may come under pressure and weaken before the holiday. The most-traded SHFE lead contract is expected to trade in the range of 16,450-16,800 yuan/mt next week. Spot price forecast: 16,350-16,650 yuan/mt. Supply side, primary lead and secondary lead smelters are undergoing concentrated maintenance, lead ingot supply is tightening regionally, and the import window for lead ingots has closed, reducing imported lead inflows. If lead prices weaken subsequently, spot discounts (against futures) in some regions will narrow, and secondary lead may even see an inversion (i.e., premiums against SMM #1 lead average price). After the holiday, downstream enterprises will resume production, but due to mediocre order performance, producers will maintain a produce-based-on-sales approach.

SMM April 30: Overnight, LME lead opened at $1,953/mt, fluctuated upward during the Asian session to a high of $1,963/mt, then moved sideways between $1,955.5-1,961.5/mt during the European session, before shifting to fluctuate downward, eventually closing low at $1,945/mt, down 0.33%. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE lead 2606 contract opened lower with a gap at 16,710 yuan/mt. Futures initially dipped briefly before rebounding slightly, but encountered resistance above. The overall trend then shifted to fluctuate downward, touching a low of 16,645 yuan/mt near the session end, finally closing at 16,650 yuan/mt, down 95 yuan/mt or 0.57%; open interest stood at 63,800 lots, down 1,254 lots from the previous trading day. Consumption side, as the Labour Day holiday approached, battery manufacturers' periodic restocking largely concluded last week, with downstream just-in-time procurement follow-through lacking momentum and overall demand remaining subdued. Supply side, constrained by tight raw material inventory, some secondary lead smelters implemented production cuts or shutdowns, with spot cargo continuing to tighten; meanwhile, ex-China lead ingot destocking continued, and domestic primary lead social inventory also pulled back slightly. Currently, the lead market presents a weak supply-demand pattern, and lead prices are likely to maintain a fluctuating trend in the short term.

Futures: Overnight, LME lead opened at $1,953/mt. During the Asian session, LME lead fluctuated upward, touching a high of $1,963/mt. Entering the European session, LME lead moved sideways within $1,955.5-1,961.5/mt, then shifted to fluctuate downward, eventually closing at a low of $1,945/mt, down 0.33%. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE lead 2606 contract opened lower with a gap at 16,710 yuan/mt. Prices briefly dipped before rebounding slightly in the early session, but encountered resistance above. Subsequently, the overall trend shifted to fluctuate downward, probing a low of 16,645 yuan/mt near the session end, eventually closing at 16,650 yuan/mt, down 95 yuan/mt or 0.57%. Open interest stood at 63,800 lots, down 1,254 lots from the previous trading day. Macro front: The US Fed kept interest rates unchanged as expected, and Powell will remain as governor. Warsh's Fed Chairman nomination passed a Senate committee vote. Trump: now is a good time to cut interest rates; Powell stays at the Fed because no one else wants him. Trump: believes the Russia-Ukraine and Iran conflicts will end at roughly the same time; negotiations with Iran are being conducted by phone, very conveniently. Iran stated that if the US continues to seize ships, it will respond with "unprecedented military action." Putin proposed a "Victory Day" temporary ceasefire with Ukraine and put forward suggestions on Iran's nuclear program; Trump suggested a temporary ceasefire in Ukraine. World Gold Council: global central banks increased gold holdings at the fastest pace in over a year in Q1. Liu Haoling was appointed as CSRC vice chairman. China discovered 13 new 100-million-mt oil fields and 26 new 100-billion-m³ gas fields. Spot fundamentals: Yesterday, SHFE lead maintained narrow-range fluctuations. Ahead of the holiday, suppliers actively made shipments, but warrant quotations in Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Shanghai remained scarce, with cargoes self-picked up from production site of primary lead smelters as the main source. Some quotations were lowered from the previous day, with mainstream production areas quoted at premiums of -20~+30 yuan/mt against SMM #1 lead average price on an ex-factory basis, while a few regions maintained quotations at premiums of +100 yuan/mt. Secondary lead side, regional tight supply persisted. Secondary lead smelters in North China, Southwest China and other regions made shipments following the market. Secondary refined lead was quoted at premiums of -50~+50 yuan/mt against SMM #1 lead average price on an ex-factory basis. Downstream enterprises successively went on holiday, procurement demand weakened notably, inquiries were also scarce, and spot market transactions were sluggish. Inventory: As of April 29, LME lead inventory decreased by 500 mt to 268,700 mt. As of April 27, SMM lead ingot social inventory saw slight destocking. Lead price forecast for today: Consumption side, as the Labour Day holiday approached, battery factories' periodic restocking largely concluded last week. Downstream just-in-time procurement follow-through was weak, and overall demand remained subdued. Supply side, constrained by tight raw material inventory, some secondary lead smelters adopted production cuts or halted operations, and spot cargo availability in the market continued to tighten; meanwhile, lead ingot destocking outside China continued, and China's primary lead social inventory also pulled back slightly. Currently, the lead market presents a weak supply-demand pattern, and lead prices are highly likely to maintain fluctuating trend in the short term.

SMM April 29: The most-traded SHFE lead 2606 contract opened at 16,710 yuan/mt. Prices dipped slightly at the opening, touching a low of 16,700 yuan/mt. Subsequently, supported by tightening regional secondary lead supply, futures strengthened in a fluctuating manner, reaching a high of 16,795 yuan/mt. Near the close, gains narrowed and pulled back slightly, ultimately closing at 16,745 yuan/mt, up 50 yuan/mt or 0.3%, recording a small bullish candlestick. Consumption side, with the Labour Day holiday approaching, battery makers had largely completed their periodic restocking last week, and downstream just-in-time procurement follow-through was insufficient, with overall demand remaining weak. Supply side, constrained by tight raw material inventory, some secondary lead smelters cut production or halted operations, and spot cargo continued to tighten. Ex-China lead ingot destocking continued, while China's primary lead social inventory also pulled back slightly. Currently, the weak supply-demand dynamics in the lead market were prominent, and lead prices may maintain a fluctuating trend in the short term. Data source statement: Data other than public information is derived from public information, market communication, and SMM's internal database models, processed by SMM for reference only and does not constitute decision-making advice.

SMM, April 29: Overnight, LME lead opened at $1,961.5/mt, briefly touched $1,963/mt early in the session, then fluctuated and pulled back during the Asian session. Entering the European session, prices once rebounded with fluctuations but came under pressure again, dipping to a low of $1,949.5/mt before recovering somewhat. Prices weakened again near the close, ultimately settling at $1,951.5/mt, down 0.61%. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE lead 2606 contract opened higher with a gap at 16,735 yuan/mt. Early in the session, SHFE lead prices moved sideways within 16,720-16,755 yuan/mt, touching a high of 16,755 yuan/mt before pulling back under pressure, displaying an overall fluctuating downward trend to a low of 16,700 yuan/mt. Prices rebounded slightly near the close, ultimately settling at 16,705 yuan/mt, up 10 yuan/mt or 0.06%. Open interest stood at 65,269 lots, an increase of 1,770 lots from the previous trading day. Consumption side, with the Labour Day holiday approaching and battery manufacturers' earlier restocking demand having been met on a phased basis, downstream enterprises showed weak follow-through on just-in-time procurement, with overall consumption remaining subdued. Supply side, constrained by tight raw material inventories, some secondary lead smelters implemented production cuts or halted operations, and regional secondary lead spot cargo continued to tighten. Ex-China, lead ingot destocking continued, while China's primary lead ingot social inventory also showed a slight destocking trend. The current lead market featured a prominent pattern of weakness in both supply and demand, and lead prices were expected to maintain a fluctuating trend in the near term.

Futures: Overnight, LME lead opened at $1,961.5/mt, briefly touched a high of $1,963/mt at the beginning of the session, then fluctuated lower during the Asian session. Entering the European session, prices once rebounded but subsequently came under pressure again, hitting a low of $1,949.5/mt before recovering slightly. Prices weakened again near the close, ultimately settling at $1,951.5/mt, down 0.61%. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE lead 2606 contract opened higher with a gap at 16,735 yuan/mt. At the beginning of the session, SHFE lead prices moved sideways within 16,720-16,755 yuan/mt, touching a high of 16,755 yuan/mt. Prices then came under pressure and pulled back, showing an overall fluctuate downward trend, hitting a low of 16,700 yuan/mt. A slight rebound occurred near the close, ultimately settling at 16,705 yuan/mt, up 10 yuan/mt or 0.06%. Open interest stood at 65,269 lots, an increase of 1,770 lots from the previous trading day. On the macro front: The US prohibited its individuals or entities from paying Strait of Hormuz transit fees to Iran. Sources: Iran was expected to submit a revised peace proposal soon. Trump: Iran wanted the US to reopen the Strait of Hormuz as soon as possible. Iranian military: did not believe the war was over. The UAE announced its withdrawal from OPEC and the "OPEC+" mechanism effective May 1. The Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee held a meeting to analyze the current economic situation and economic work. China will implement zero tariffs on all African countries with diplomatic relations starting May 1, 2026. MIIT: the next step will be to carry out the "AI + Software" special action, and promote computing power layout and edge computing construction in an orderly manner. Spot fundamentals: Yesterday, SHFE lead continued to consolidate. Suppliers made shipments following the market, but warrant quotations in Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Shanghai remained scarce. Suppliers mainly offered cargoes self-picked up from production site of primary lead smelters, with premiums adjusted lower from the previous day. Mainstream origins were quoted at premiums of 0-30 yuan/mt against SMM #1 lead average price, ex-works. Secondary lead side, supply in east China remained tight with significant regional price differences. Secondary refined lead was quoted at discounts of 60 yuan/mt to premiums of 50 yuan/mt against SMM #1 lead average price, ex-works. Downstream enterprises maintained just-in-time procurement, and as the holiday approached, a few enterprises had already entered holiday mode. Spot order market transactions were moderate and scattered. Inventory: As of April 28, LME lead inventory decreased by 500 mt to 269,200 mt. As of April 27, SMM lead ingot social inventory saw slight destocking. Lead price forecast for today: Consumption side, with the Labour Day holiday approaching and battery makers' earlier restocking demand having been met on a phased basis, downstream enterprises showed weak follow-through on just-in-time procurement, with overall consumption performance remaining subdued. Supply side, constrained by tight raw material inventory, some secondary lead smelters implemented production cuts and shutdowns, with regional secondary lead spot cargo continuing to tighten; ex-China, lead ingot destocking continued, while China's primary lead ingot social inventory also showed a slight destocking trend. The current lead market exhibited a weak supply-demand pattern on both sides, and lead prices were expected to maintain a fluctuating trend in the short term.

SMM April 28: Dealers in Jiangsu reported that replacement demand in the e-bike lead-acid battery market was sluggish, battery inventory was digesting slowly, and raw material costs such as lead ingots stayed high. The customary sales promotions in the battery market had yet to materialize, with the current wholesale price of the mainstream model 48V12Ah maintained at 280-300 yuan/set. Manufacturers in Zhejiang reported that demand in the e-bike lead-acid battery market was weak, dealers were cautious in procurement, and with the Labour Day holiday approaching, factories plan to shut down for 5 days. In addition, they plan to hold off on additional stockpiling of raw material lead before the holiday. Manufacturers in Shandong reported that the e-bike lead-acid battery market was in the off-season, with poor finished product orders. To avoid inventory buildup, factories maintained operating rates at 50-60%, and raw material lead was purchased only through just-in-time procurement.

SMM April 28: The most-traded SHFE lead 2606 contract opened at 16,780 yuan/mt. SHFE lead prices briefly rose at the opening, touching a high of 16,795 yuan/mt, then fluctuated downward amid a broad decline in non-ferrous metals. Prices dipped to a low of 16,670 yuan/mt in the later session, rebounded slightly near the close, and ultimately settled at 16,695 yuan/mt, posting a small bearish candlestick, down 20 yuan/mt or 0.12% from the previous day. Supply side, for secondary lead, smelter maintenance increased, tightening supply in east China. For primary lead, SMM lead ingot social inventory saw slight destocking, with total volumes declining. Additionally, lead ingot destocking outside China continued, reducing imported lead inflows into China. Demand side, some enterprises were approaching the holiday, and coupled with the off-season impact, downstream manufacturers generally maintained a wait-and-see sentiment, with rigid demand contracting notably. The weak supply-demand pattern persisted, and SMM expects lead prices to move sideways in the near term. Data source disclaimer: Data other than public information is derived from public information, market communication, and SMM's internal database models, processed by SMM for reference only and does not constitute decision-making advice.

Futures: Overnight, LME lead opened at $1,963/mt. During the Asian session, LME lead moved sideways within the range of $1,959.5-1,966.5/mt, touching a high of $1,966.5/mt. Entering the European session, LME lead prices turned to fluctuate downward, dipping to a low of $1,947/mt. Supported by LME lead destocking, LME lead rebounded and eventually closed at $1,963.5/mt, up 0.15%. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE lead 2606 contract opened higher with a gap at 16,740 yuan/mt. It briefly fluctuated downward at the beginning of the session, dipping to a low of 16,700 yuan/mt, then rebounded and eventually closed at a high of 16,785 yuan/mt, up 70 yuan/mt or 0.42%. Its open interest reached 64,643 lots, an increase of 439 lots from the previous trading day. On the macro front: White House: Trump discussed Iran's Strait of Hormuz proposal with senior aides. US media: Trump was skeptical of Iran's proposal but did not outright reject it. Trump: maintained contact with both Putin and Zelensky. Hezbollah leader: firmly rejected direct negotiations with Israel. Russian President Putin met with Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi. OpenAI and Microsoft reached a "ceasefire agreement." NBS: From January to March, total profits of China's above-scale industrial enterprises reached 1.696 trillion yuan, up 15.5% YoY. NDRC: prohibited foreign acquisition of the Manus project and demanded the transaction be revoked. National Energy Administration: will coordinate with the NDRC to scientifically plan hydrogen energy industry development goals and tasks for the 15th Five-Year Plan period. China National Space Administration: made forward-looking arrangements for new industries such as space computing power and space manufacturing. Spot fundamentals: Yesterday, SHFE lead held up well. On the spot side, warrant quotations in Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Shanghai were scarce, and some suppliers intended to ship to delivery warehouses. Cargoes self-picked up from production site of primary lead smelters were also quoted firmly, with mainstream production areas quoted at premiums of 0-50 yuan/mt against SMM #1 lead average price on an ex-factory basis, with most shipments made at premiums. On the secondary lead side, smelter maintenance increased, supply in east China was tight, and some smelters shipped at premiums. Regional price spreads widened, with secondary refined lead quoted at discounts of 80 yuan/mt to premiums of 50 yuan/mt against SMM #1 lead average price on an ex-factory basis. As the Labour Day holiday approached, downstream enterprises had limited just-in-time procurement needs, inquiries were also few, and spot order market trading was sluggish. Inventory: As of April 27, LME lead inventory decreased by 325 mt to 269,700 mt. SMM lead ingot social inventory saw slight destocking. Lead price forecast for today: On the consumption side, as the Labour Day holiday approached, downstream enterprises showed weak follow-through in just-in-time procurement. Supply side, affected by tight raw material inventory, some secondary lead smelters adopted production cuts and production suspension, and regional secondary lead spot cargo continued to tighten; meanwhile, primary lead ingot social inventory saw slight destocking. The current market presented a weak supply-demand pattern, and lead prices were expected to maintain a fluctuating trend in the short term.