According to SMM, the Peruvian government has acknowledged for the first time the existence of large-scale informal copper ore mining, and warned that high prices could lead to an increase in such activities in the near future. Energy and Mines Minister Jorge Montero told foreign media in Lima on Tuesday that the government remains vigilant about large-scale informal copper ore mining, particularly in the area where the mining rights belong to the Las Bambas copper mine operated by China's Minmetals Resources. "This is the largest informal copper ore mining activity we have discovered so far," Montero said. "It is worth noting that we already have large-scale copper ore mining operations in that area.

On June 3 (Tuesday), the Peruvian government acknowledged for the first time the existence of large-scale informal copper mining, and warned that high prices could lead to an increase in such activities in the near future. Jorge Montero, the Minister of Energy and Mines, told foreign media in Lima on Tuesday that the Peruvian government remained vigilant about large-scale informal copper mining, particularly in the area where mining rights belong to the Las Bambas copper mine operated by China's MMG Ltd. "This is the largest informal copper mining operation we have discovered so far," Montero said. "It is alarming that we already have large-scale copper mining operations in that area." The informal mine, named Apu Chunta, is operated by the indigenous community of the Pamputa tribe. Its annual production is estimated at 30,000 mt, worth approximately $300 million at current prices. Although Pamputa owns the land, Las Bambas holds the rights to mine copper. The mining company also plans to build an open-pit mine in the area in the 2030s, for which it must purchase land from the community. Informal mining activities and conflicts between mineral resource owners and concession holders have become a critical issue in Peru's mining industry, and the government is striving to find a balanced solution. Peru's rich mineral deposits have attracted thousands of small-scale miners, who mainly operate on land without mining rights. Informal operators have encroached on exploration projects operated by Southern Copper Corp. and First Quantum Minerals Ltd. The minister also mentioned that Teck Resources Ltd.'s Zafranal project had been affected. To be sure, informal copper production remains negligible compared to formal production. (Wenhua Comprehensive)

[SMM Analysis:April China's Copper Concentrate Imports: Unexpected Yet Reasonable ] In April 2025, China's imports of copper concentrates reached a record 2.9244 million tons, up 22.16% month-on-month, 24.55% year-on-year, and 7.46% year-on-year cumulatively. It is not difficult to observe that from the end of 2024 to the first half of 2025, many copper smelters in China commenced operations, releasing rough smelting capacity. The surge in copper concentrate imports driven by the sharp increase in demand was reasonable, but such a high import volume was still unexpected. Let's specifically analyze the main sources of this high-level copper concentrate imports.

[SMM Analysis: China's Copper Concentrates Imports in April: Unexpected Yet Reasonable] In April 2025, China's copper concentrates imports reached a record high of 2.9244 million mt, up 22.16% MoM, up 24.55% YoY, and up 7.46% on a cumulative YoY basis. It is not difficult to observe that from year-end 2024 to H1 2025, many copper smelters in China commenced operations, releasing smelting capacity. The surge in copper concentrates imports, driven by a significant increase in demand for copper concentrates, was reasonable. However, the unexpectedly high import value of copper concentrates came as a surprise. We attribute the high volume of copper concentrates imports to the following factors.

According to a report on the BNAmericas website, Peru's copper production in Q1 was 666,455 mt, up 3.88% from 641,543 mt in the same period last year. The growth was mainly driven by medium-sized copper producers, such as Las Bambas and Anglo American, which are set to become top local producers.

According to BNAmericas, Peru's copper production reached 666,455 mt in Q1, a 3.88% increase from 641,543 mt in the same period last year. The growth was mainly driven by mid-sized copper companies, such as Las Bambas and Anglo American, which are set to become the top local producers. According to the Ministry of Energy and Mines, Peru's copper production in March was 229,850 mt, compared to 220,000 mt in January and 217,000 mt in February. The Moquegua region is home to Anglo American's Quellaveco and Southern Copper. Southern Copper Corporation, a subsidiary of Grupo México, remained the largest copper producer, with an output of 105,094 mt, accounting for 15.8% of the country's total production. The company operates the Toquepala and Cuajone copper mines, as well as the Ilo smelter. However, another major copper mine, Cerro Verde, owned by Freeport-McMoRan, saw its Q1 production decline by 7% to 100,147 mt. The Antamina copper mine produced 97,774 mt in Q1, a 7.6% decrease. The mine's shareholders are BHP (33.75%), Glencore (33.75%), Teck (22.50%), and Mitsubishi (10%). The Las Bambas copper mine, owned by MMG (a subsidiary of China Minmetals), produced 95,733 mt, a 70.9% increase, while Anglo American's production rose by 11.1% to 79,950 mt. Las Bambas contributed an additional 39,700 mt in Q1; otherwise, Peru's copper production would have declined. Chalco's copper production was 54,803 mt, a 36.5% increase. Minsur's Marcobre copper mine produced 34,599 mt, a 16.7% increase.

[SMM Analysis:The production output of the top 15 mining enterprises in Q1 has been released, and the supply of copper concentrate is not optimistic ] The copper production of the top 15 mining enterprises in the first quarter of 2025 has been released. According to SMM statistics, the copper production of the top 15 mining enterprises in the first quarter was 2,967 kt, a year-on-year decrease of 0.8% and a month-on-month decrease of 12.8%. However, judging from the production data in the first quarter, the raw material supply this year seems not optimistic.

[SMM Analysis: Q1 Production of Top 15 Miners Released, Copper Concentrates Supply Not Looking Optimistic] The copper production of the top 15 miners in Q1 2025 has been released. According to SMM statistics, the Q1 copper production of the top 15 miners was 2,967 kt (metal content), down 0.8% YoY and 12.8% QoQ. However, based on the Q1 production data, the raw material supply this year does not seem optimistic.

On Thursday, April 24, Peru's Las Bambas copper mine reported one of its best quarterly performances in history for Q1, benefiting from higher ore grades and improved recovery rates. According to a report by MMG, the Chinese-controlled Las Bambas copper mine in the Apurímac region produced 95,728 mt of copper in Q1 this year, up from 56,025 mt in the same period last year. The ore grade increased to 0.88% in Q1, compared to 0.54% in Q1 2024, while the copper recovery rate rose from 86.2% to 88.1%. The Ferrobamba pit and the new Chalcobamba pit maintained stable operations, with Las Bambas processing 20.2 million mt of ore in Q1, the highest quarterly level on record. The company also stated that it currently has 155 units of trucks transporting copper concentrates, up from the previous 125 units, enabling faster exports and inventory reduction. Due to the optimization of the Chalcobamba pit, Las Bambas has been operating at full capacity since Q4 2024, which will be the company's mid-term focus. The production guidance for this year is 360,000-400,000 mt, but it is expected to be revised upward following the Q1 performance. MMG stated, "Following the strong operational performance in Q1 and annualized production trending toward the upper end of the range, the company is evaluating the possibility of raising the lower end of its production forecast. If social unrest in Peru does not cause significant disruptions, Las Bambas is expected to achieve the high end of the forecast range in 2025." Las Bambas produced 322,912 mt of copper last year. The mine has faced strong community opposition in the past, particularly along the routes used to transport concentrates.

Market Sentiment: Copper prices continued to surge, led by US copper, with the COMEX copper weighted index hitting a record high last week. The market's focus on the US-LME price spread shifted to far-month contracts, and the main contract on the US market has not yet broken last year's high. On tariffs, the market is turning its attention to news about reciprocal tariffs from the newly appointed US president at the beginning of next month. In terms of indicators, the University of Michigan consumer confidence index and retail sales in the US remained weak, but housing starts and industrial production showed moderate performance. The US Fed, as expected, kept interest rates unchanged, raised inflation expectations, lowered economic growth forecasts, and predicted two interest rate cuts this year. The Fed has revised down the US economic growth forecast for this year from 2.1% to 1.7%. Meanwhile, the OECD has also revised down global GDP growth, with a significant downward revision for Canada. In terms of macro and funding sentiment, the current stage is more prone to trading the "inflation" side, with significant attention on the momentum of gold prices reaching new highs and whether silver prices will catch up. This week, the focus is on the preliminary March manufacturing PMI, durable goods orders, and February PCE data from major economies. Domestic Supply and Demand: Upstream, the TC for imported copper concentrates continued to decline, with Mysteel's sampled TC dropping to -20.28 $/dmt. The market is paying attention to the entry of copper concentrates from Indonesia and Panama. In terms of scale, both regions imported over 650,000 mt of refined copper into China in 2023, accounting for approximately 2.5% of total domestic concentrate imports. The proportion of Indonesian concentrates flowing into China is low, with some also going to Japan and South Korea, but a large proportion of Panamanian copper concentrates once flowed into China. In April, leading smelting capacities are undergoing maintenance, which may lead to observable changes in TC. On the consumption side, high copper prices have suppressed the operating rates of copper-related products, but the current period is in the seasonal peak season. Buying interest in the Pearl River Delta region is stronger, with Guangdong copper premiums reaching 190 yuan/mt, while Shanghai turned to parity. SMM social inventory recently decreased by 12,800 mt to 333,600 mt, 53,670 mt lower than the same period last year. Guided by the price spread, refined copper exports in January-February were 49,400 mt, while cumulative imports during the same period were 533,700 mt, a YoY decrease of 12.66%. Currently, the domestic supply and demand situation supports copper prices to continue fluctuating at high levels and testing higher. Overseas News: Peru's copper production in January increased by 7% to 216,600 mt, with output from MMG's Las Bambas mine increasing. Zambia's copper production in 2024 is expected to increase by 12% to 820,000 mt, up from 732,000 mt in 2023. Kazakhstan's refined copper production in the first two months remained stable, growing by 1%. Outlook: SHFE copper's adjustment period was short, and the correction range is likely to be limited due to buying demand during the peak season. On Monday, the SHFE copper weighted index saw an increase in positions and another rise, with technical space opening up to 82,500. The copper market is still in a "buff-stacking" upward trend, with no signs of a shift from "inflation" to "stagnation" yet.