In H1 2026, the nickel salt (nickel sulphate) market experienced wild swings of "two rallies and two pullbacks," with price movements dominated by a pattern of cost support and demand-side drive.

In H1 2026, the overseas bauxite market was generally characterized by high shipment levels, growing imports, a year-on-year decline in prices but a recovery within the year, stronger policy disturbances, and rising energy and freight costs. In particular, escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East pushed up oil prices and dry bulk freight rates, becoming an important cost-side factor supporting Guinea bauxite CIF China prices. On the supply side, bauxite shipments from Guinea’s major ports maintained significant year-on-year growth, making Guinea the core source of overseas bauxite supply increments. Australian shipments were generally stable, although local weather disruptions in March caused a temporary decline in shipments from major ports. In terms of domestic import structure, as June customs import data by country has not yet been released, this article mainly observes import changes from January to May 2026. Data shows that domestic bauxite imports continued to grow year-on-year during January-May 2026, with the source structure becoming increasingly concentrated in Guinea. On the price side, imported bauxite prices in H1 2026 were significantly lower than the same period in 2025, but prices did not continue to decline throughout the year. Since March, escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have pushed up international oil prices and dry bulk freight costs, leading to a significant increase in Guinea bauxite CIF China prices. Around the Labour Day holiday and again in mid-to-late June, market rumours repeatedly suggested that the Guinean government might introduce bauxite export quota-related policies. Although no such policies were officially implemented within the expected timeframe, these rumours disrupted the transaction pace between buyers and sellers and provided support to forward price expectations. At the same time, after the Chinese New Year holiday, imported bauxite raw material inventories at domestic alumina refineries remained at elevated levels, while port inventories of imported bauxite continued to accumulate after March and throughout H1, limiting further upside in spot prices. Overall, the overseas bauxite market in H1 2026 did not face an absolute shortage. Instead, it showed a pattern of relatively loose physical supply but tightening expectations from costs and policy risks. High Guinean shipments supported arrivals of imported bauxite in the domestic market, but the high concentration of domestic import sources in Guinea also made the market more sensitive to Guinean policy changes, rainy-season shipment disruptions, freight rate fluctuations, and changes in long-term contract prices. Price: Still Low YoY, but CIF Prices Recovered in Stages During the Year According to SMM data, in January-June 2026, the average SMM Imported Bauxite CIF Index stood at around $66.37/mt, down around 26.0% from the same period in 2025. The average Guinea bauxite CIF China price was around $65.88/mt, down around 25.8% year-on-year. The average Australia high-temperature bauxite CIF China price was around $56.93/mt, down around 23.0% year-on-year. The average Australia low-temperature bauxite CIF China price was around $61.63/mt, down around 24.1% year-on-year. From a year-on-year perspective, imported bauxite prices in H1 2026 remained significantly below the same period last year. However, from an intra-year perspective, imported bauxite prices first declined and then recovered. In early January, the SMM Imported Bauxite CIF Index was around $68.35/mt, while Guinea bauxite CIF China was around $67.5/mt. By late February, Guinea bauxite CIF China had once fallen to around $60/mt. After entering March, rising oil prices and freight costs amid escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East pushed up the landed cost of Guinea bauxite delivered to China. On March 2, Guinea bauxite CIF China was around $62/mt; by March 20, it had risen to $66.5/mt, and by the end of March it further increased to $68.5/mt. It is worth noting that in March, the increase in Guinea CIF prices was significantly greater than the change in FOB prices. SMM data shows that Guinea bauxite FOB was around $37.5/mt on March 2, rose to $38.5/mt on March 20, and remained near $38.5/mt at the end of March. Over the same period, the Guinea CIF-FOB spread widened from around $24.5/mt to around $30/mt. Overall, the March increase in Guinea CIF prices was not entirely driven by mine-side quotations. Freight rates, energy costs, trading premiums, and forward supply risk expectations all provided support to landed prices. From late April to early May, the market heard rumours that the Guinean government might announce bauxite export quota-related policies during the Labour Day holiday. As a result, transaction activity between buyers and sellers slowed significantly, and the market turned cautious. In terms of price performance, Guinea bauxite CIF China remained largely stable at around $67.5/mt between April 24 and May 8, while the SMM Imported Bauxite CIF Index also stayed near $67.52/mt. Prices mainly moved sideways and did not break out significantly. As no related policy was officially introduced during the Labour Day period, market transactions gradually recovered in mid-May, and Guinea bauxite CIF China edged up to around $68/mt. Entering June, Guinean policy expectations once again disturbed the market. Around the Dragon Boat Festival, market rumours again suggested that the Guinean government might introduce export quota-related policies between mid-June and early July. At the same time, market participants were waiting for the release of July long-term contract prices, causing buyers and sellers to turn cautious again. In terms of prices, Guinea bauxite CIF China rose from around $68/mt in early June to around $69.5/mt in mid-June, and further increased to around $71/mt by the end of June. For Guinea monthly long-term contract prices, the price stood at $67/mt in January 2026, fell to $62/mt in February, rebounded to $63/mt in March, remained at $70/mt from April to June, and further increased to $71/mt in July. The firm long-term contract price also provided certain support to the spot market. Shipments: Guinea Maintained High Growth, while Australia Saw a Temporary Weather-Related Decline in March Due to the limited disclosure frequency of overseas mine production data, this article uses weekly shipments from major ports as a reference indicator for observing overseas bauxite exportable supply trends. For monthly comparison, all monthly shipment data mentioned in this article is calculated by allocating weekly shipment data to corresponding months based on the proportion of calendar days. According to SMM statistics, in January-June 2026, bauxite shipments from Guinea’s major ports totalled around 115.1357 million mt, up around 26.5% from the same period in 2025. By month, shipments from Guinea’s major ports increased by around 40.2% YoY in January, 35.1% YoY in February, 28.7% YoY in March, 31.5% YoY in April, 10.9% YoY in May, and 13.5% YoY in June. Overall, Guinean shipments remained high in H1 and continued to serve as the main source of overseas bauxite supply growth. In terms of shipment structure, high Guinean shipments reflected continued release of mine and port export capacity, while also supporting high arrivals of imported bauxite in the domestic market. At the same time, Guinea’s rising share in the domestic import structure means that the market has become increasingly sensitive to local policy changes, weather conditions, port operations, and shipping conditions. For Australia, bauxite shipments from major ports totalled around 21.6586 million mt in January-June 2026, down around 3.7% year-on-year. Overall performance was relatively stable, but its incremental supply elasticity was weaker than Guinea’s. Australia’s shipments fell notably in March, mainly due to local weather disruptions and related natural events. Weekly data shows that Australian bauxite shipments from major ports declined significantly during March, with shipments from Weipa falling to a low level in late March. After entering April, shipments from Australia’s major ports recovered quickly. This indicates that the weather disruption had more of a temporary impact on shipments rather than representing a sustained supply contraction. Import Structure: Domestic Imports Grew YoY in January-May, with Guinea’s Dominance Further Strengthened On the import side, as June customs import data by country has not yet been released, this article mainly observes domestic bauxite import changes in January-May 2026. According to customs data, domestic bauxite imports totalled around 100.7579 million mt in January-May 2026, up around 18.6% from 84.9571 million mt in the same period of 2025. By country, domestic imports from Guinea reached around 82.5716 million mt in January-May 2026, up around 24.9% from 66.1231 million mt in the same period of 2025. Guinea accounted for around 82.0% of total domestic bauxite imports, up from around 77.8% in the same period last year. This shows that Guinea remained the largest source of domestic imported bauxite, while its dominance in the import structure further strengthened. Australia remained the second-largest source of domestic bauxite imports. In January-May 2026, domestic imports from Australia stood at around 14.4914 million mt, up around 8.2% from 13.3929 million mt in the same period of 2025. However, Australia’s share of total domestic bauxite imports stood at around 14.4%, lower than around 15.8% in the same period last year. Overall, Australian supply remained stable, but its share in the domestic import structure was significantly lower than Guinea’s, and its short-term incremental supply elasticity was relatively limited. Among non-mainstream sources, domestic imports from Sierra Leone reached around 1.0353 million mt in January-May 2026, marking a significant year-on-year increase. Imports from Guyana reached around 747,200 mt, up slightly year-on-year, while imports from Türkiye reached around 559,100 mt, down significantly year-on-year. Overall, non-mainstream sources provided supplementary supply in certain months, but in terms of supply scale, stability, quality compatibility, and logistics conditions, they remain unable to substantially replace Guinea in the short term. From a monthly perspective, domestic bauxite imports remained high in January-May 2026. Imports stood at around 19.2528 million mt in January, 16.9530 million mt in February, 21.7789 million mt in March, 19.7433 million mt in April, and further increased to around 23.0298 million mt in May. May imports were at a high level, with imports from Guinea reaching around 19.6074 million mt and imports from Australia around 3.0259 million mt. High Guinean shipments in earlier periods and continued demand for imported ore from domestic coastal alumina refineries jointly supported import growth. Inventory and Transactions: High Inventories Suppressed Spot Procurement, while Policy Expectations Disrupted Transaction Pace In terms of inventories, according to SMM surveys, imported bauxite raw material inventories at domestic alumina refineries remained at elevated levels after the Chinese New Year holiday. Meanwhile, after geopolitical tensions in the Middle East escalated in March, domestic port inventories of imported bauxite continued to accumulate throughout H1. With relatively sufficient inventory buffers, downstream alumina refineries had limited acceptance of high-priced spot cargoes. Procurement was mainly conducted on a need-to basis, while some enterprises preferred to observe policy changes, freight rates, and long-term contract price movements before restocking. High inventories also explain a key contradiction in price movements during H1. On the one hand, geopolitical tensions in the Middle East pushed up energy and freight costs, while repeated Guinean policy expectations disturbed market sentiment and supported imported bauxite prices. On the other hand, elevated inventories at alumina refineries and ports meant that spot procurement did not see sustained concentrated buying, and acceptance of high-priced cargoes remained limited, thereby restricting further price upside. Around the Labour Day holiday, the market heard rumours that the Guinean government might announce bauxite export quota-related policies during the holiday period. Transactions between buyers and sellers weakened significantly, and the market entered a wait-and-see mode. As no related policy was officially introduced within the expected timeframe, market transactions gradually recovered after mid-May, but prices only saw a mild recovery. In mid-to-late June, the market again heard rumours that Guinea might introduce quota-related policies between mid-June and early July. Together with uncertainty around July long-term contract prices, transaction activity became cautious again. Therefore, the impact of Guinean policy expectations in H1 2026 was reflected more in transaction pace and price expectations, rather than simply driving a sustained rapid increase in spot prices. Major Events: Cost Disturbances, Australian Weather, and Guinean Policy Expectations Ran Through H1 The major events in the overseas bauxite market in H1 2026 can be divided into three main lines. First, escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East in March pushed up oil prices and dry bulk freight costs, driving a rapid recovery in Guinea bauxite CIF China prices. As the Guinea-China route is long, freight rate movements have a significant impact on landed costs. From March to June, Guinea-China bauxite freight rates remained high, once rising to around $36/mt, and fluctuated within a high range. At the same time, persistently high oil prices also pushed up transportation and export costs at Guinean mines. Some mines faced pressure on export margins, and market feedback suggested that some mines reduced shipments in stages or controlled shipment pace during May-June to ease cost pressure. Second, Australia saw a temporary decline in shipments from major ports in March due to local weather disruptions. After allocating weekly shipment data to months based on calendar days, Australian bauxite shipments from major ports stood at around 2.5339 million mt in March, down around 38.8% year-on-year. Among them, shipments from Weipa fell notably in late March. Shipments recovered quickly after entering April, indicating that the disruption was more of a short-term event and had limited impact on the full-year supply structure. Third, Guinean export quota policy expectations repeatedly disturbed the market. Around the Labour Day holiday, market rumours suggested that the Guinean government might announce export quota-related policies, leading to weaker transactions and sideways price movements. However, no such policy was eventually introduced, and market transactions gradually recovered after mid-May. In mid-to-late June, the market again heard rumours that the Guinean government might introduce quota-related policies between mid-June and early July. Together with the pending release of July long-term contract prices, prices again remained firm. Although the policy has not yet been officially implemented, the market has become significantly more sensitive to such news amid the high dependence of domestic imported bauxite on Guinea. Full-Year Outlook: Guinean Policy Risk and Freight Cost Disturbances Continue to Support Forward Price Expectations Looking ahead to H2 2026, the core contradiction in the overseas bauxite market is expected to continue revolving around Guinean policy changes, rainy-season shipments, and freight cost fluctuations. If shipments from Guinea’s major ports remain relatively stable as seen in early July, and Guinea-China freight rates continue to fall, imported bauxite supply is still expected to remain relatively sufficient. Domestic alumina refinery and port inventories may also remain elevated, limiting further upside in spot prices. However, on the risk side, current market rumours still suggest that the Guinean government may introduce bauxite export quota-related policies in H2 2026. If such policies are officially implemented and impose substantial constraints on local mine shipment schedules, Guinean bauxite supply elasticity may be affected, thereby supporting imported bauxite prices. Meanwhile, as Guinea gradually enters its traditional rainy season, mining, inland transportation, and port loading may all face temporary disruptions. Based on historical rainy-season performance, Guinean shipments may decline in certain months, affecting domestic arrival schedules and port inventory digestion. In terms of freight rates, Middle East developments still showed potential for volatility in early July, and the previous easing expectations still require further observation. If geopolitical risks rise again, oil prices and dry bulk freight costs may increase once more. Guinea-China bauxite freight rates may rebound from the current range of around $30-32/mt to $36/mt or even higher, pushing imported bauxite CIF prices higher again. Conversely, if the Middle East situation continues to ease and oil prices and freight rates decline further, Guinea-China freight rates may fall below $30/mt. In that case, some Guinean mines that previously reduced shipments or controlled shipment pace may resume shipments, and market transaction activity may recover. On prices, overseas bauxite prices in H2 are expected to remain constrained on both the upside and downside. On the upside, elevated raw material inventories at domestic alumina refineries and port inventories will limit acceptance of high-priced spot cargoes. If actual supply does not shrink significantly, the momentum for a sustained sharp price increase may be limited. On the downside, Guinean policy expectations, rainy-season disruptions, freight volatility, long-term contract price support, and import source concentration risks all mean that imported bauxite prices lack the basis for a sharp decline. In H2 2026, the market needs to closely monitor whether Guinean export policies are officially implemented, the actual impact of the rainy season on local mines and port shipments, Guinea-China freight rate movements, July and subsequent long-term contract price adjustments, and domestic port inventory digestion. If Guinean shipments remain high and port inventories continue to accumulate, the upside elasticity of imported bauxite prices may remain limited. However, if policy implementation tightens, rainy-season disruptions exceed expectations, or freight rates rise again, Guinea bauxite CIF China prices may still receive periodic support. Conclusion Overall, the overseas bauxite market in H1 2026 was characterized by high shipments, growing imports, a year-on-year price decline but intra-year recovery, and stronger policy disturbances. Guinean shipments increased significantly year-on-year, supporting high domestic bauxite import volumes. Australian shipments recovered after a temporary weather-related decline in March, and overall supply remained relatively stable. In terms of import structure, domestic bauxite imports increased by around 18.6% year-on-year in January-May 2026. Among them, imports from Guinea increased by around 24.9% year-on-year, with its share rising further to around 82.0%, indicating that domestic imported bauxite reliance on Guinea continued to increase. On the price side, imported bauxite prices in H1 2026 were significantly lower than the same period in 2025. However, prices recovered during the year amid geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, rising oil and freight costs, Guinean export quota policy expectations, and long-term contract price support. At the same time, elevated raw material inventories at alumina refineries after the Chinese New Year holiday and continued port inventory accumulation after March limited further upside in spot prices. Looking ahead, the overseas bauxite market does not lack absolute supply, but the supply structure is highly concentrated. Price volatility is increasingly driven by policy, logistics, freight, and risk premiums rather than a simple supply-demand gap. In H2, Guinean policy implementation, rainy-season shipments, freight rate movements, long-term contract price adjustments, and domestic port inventory digestion will be key factors affecting overseas bauxite prices and import structure changes.

While upstream MHP payables stayed high, auxiliary material prices such as sulphur and sulphuric acid continued to climb, and downstream ternary production schedules remained at high levels, the performance of battery-grade nickel sulphate prices was not optimistic. SMM believes this was driven by multiple factors, including weakening cost support, front-loaded downstream stockpiling, increased import supplementation, and higher volumes of nickel sulphate converted from refined nickel.

[SMM Analysis]Secondary Aluminum Industry Remains Under Pressure, May Operating Rate Keeps Dropping and Hard to Stop

According to the latest data from the GACC. China has imported 97.711 Mt of iron ore and concentrates in May, down 6.143 Mt MoM, a decline of 5.9%. Cumulative imports in January-May reached 516.258 Mt, increased 6.3% YoY. In May, the operating rate of China's steel industry remained high, with strong downstream demand supporting high pig iron production at steel mills. Given wider profit margins, mills' appetite for iron ore remained solid. That said, elevated port inventories and a persistent decline in ore prices in late May squeezed import margins and partly curbed buying interest. In addition, iron ore prices in May were affected by adjustments to the statistical cycle and the Labour Day holiday, resulting in fewer statistical days compared with April. Some enterprises also made customs declarations ahead of schedule, leading to a notable MoM decline in iron ore imports in May. June iron ore imports are expected to grow. On one hand, June, as the final month of Q2, will prompt some mines to accelerate production and shipping paces to meet shipment targets. On the other, although the market is starting to enter the traditional off-season for steel, ex-China steel demand is still able to drive Chinese steel exports, leaving mills sufficient surplus to maintain blast furnace operating rates. Hot metal output in June is also projected to stay elevated, providing rigid demand support for iron ore. Supply-demand synergy is expected to lift iron ore imports in June.

According to SMM, in May, constrained by multiple factors such as the Labour Day holiday disruption, weak demand from home appliances, and copper prices fluctuating at highs, the operating rate of the enamelled wire industry pulled back 3 percentage points MoM. Currently, structural divergence on the demand side continues. Rigid demand from the new energy and power sectors remains steady, providing bottom support for the industry. However, the home appliance sector remains persistently weak, traditional end-user segments lack incremental rigid demand, and downstream end-users are highly sensitive to copper prices. Copper price fluctuations suppress purchase willingness, further dragging on order growth.

[SMM Analysis]Supply Tightening Offsets Off-season Pressure, June ADC12 Price Center Expected to Rise

Analysis of Copper Scrap Market Operations in May 2026: Supply-Demand Deadlock and Structural Contradictions amid High Volatility

SMM, May 29: Following the State Council's release of the Urban Renewal 15th Five-Year Plan, the real estate industry received new policy catalysts. On May 29, the real estate development sector rose accordingly, with the market optimistic about incremental investment opportunities in areas such as urban village renovation, old residential community upgrades, and municipal infrastructure construction following the plan's implementation. As of the close on May 29, the real estate development sector gained 0.68%, and real estate services rose 0.26%. In terms of individual stocks, Fuxing Co., Sunshine Co., Tianjian Group, Xiangjiang Holdings, Everbright Jiabao, and several others hit the daily limit, while Vanke A, Financial Street, Tefа Services, and China Merchants Shekou led the gains. News [State Council Releases Urban Renewal 15th Five-Year Plan: City-Specific Policies to Increase Supply of Upgraded Housing and Regulate Development of Housing Rental Market] The State Council released the Urban Renewal 15th Five-Year Plan. The plan proposes to comprehensively assess the base of existing urban asset resources, promote classified disposal of land that has been allocated but not yet developed and projects under construction, and revitalize idle and underutilized old factory buildings, commercial and office properties, commodity housing, and public housing. It is expected to accelerate the construction of a new model for real estate development and improve fundamental systems for commodity housing development, financing, and sales. The plan calls for optimizing the supply of affordable housing, strengthening housing security for low-income urban households with housing difficulties, better meeting the basic housing needs of working-class groups facing housing difficulties with modest incomes, and gradually addressing the transitional housing difficulties of new urban residents, young people, and other groups. City-specific policies are expected to increase the supply of upgraded housing and regulate the development of the housing rental market. The plan encourages real estate development enterprises to transform and participate in urban renewal. It is expected to deepen the reform of the housing provident fund system, expand its scope of use, strive to meet the diversified housing needs of contributors at different stages, and support flexible employment workers in participating in the housing provident fund system. The plan also aims to strengthen and regulate the management of existing urban infrastructure assets. [Huang Guanglie, Deputy Secretary General of Guangzhou Municipal Government: Confident in Further Consolidating the Stabilizing and Improving Trend of Guangzhou's Property Market] On May 26, Guangzhou held a press conference on the supporting documents for the Implementation Opinions on Further Promoting Stable and Healthy Development of the Real Estate Market. Huang Guanglie, Deputy Secretary General of the Guangzhou Municipal Government, stated that going forward, Guangzhou will continue to improve the two major systems of the housing market and housing security, and continuously optimize property market regulation measures. The Municipal Bureau of Planning and Natural Resources, the Municipal Bureau of Housing and Urban-Rural Development, the Municipal Provident Fund Center, and other departments have issued supporting rules on matters such as land supply, special subsidies for "sell old, buy new," and "commercial-to-provident fund loan conversion." Huadu District responded swiftly by launching eight specific measures. State-owned enterprises represented by Guangzhou Anju Group are accelerating the launch of pilot work on the acquisition and revitalization of second-hand housing. We believe that as these detailed rules are fully implemented and all sectors advance in coordination, we are confident in further consolidating the stabilizing and improving trend of Guangzhou's property market. (Jin10 Data APP) [Guangzhou's Real Estate Market Activity Has Been Continuously Rising Since May] On May 26, Guangzhou held a press conference on the series of supporting documents for the "Implementation Opinions on Further Promoting the Stable and Healthy Development of the Real Estate Market." Huang Guanglie, Deputy Secretary General of the Guangzhou Municipal Government, noted that on April 30, Guangzhou issued the "Implementation Opinions on Further Promoting the Stable and Healthy Development of the Real Estate Market" (known as the "Sui Eight Measures"). As the policy effects continued to release, market activity kept rising. Since May, weekly visits, subscriptions, and online signings at key new residential projects citywide increased by 26.9%, 36.9%, and 11.4% WoW, respectively; weekly signing volume of pre-owned residential properties rose 9.3% WoW, while new listing volume decreased 16.7% YoY. The new housing provident fund policy took effect, with 4,484 loan applications accepted totaling 4.746 billion yuan, up 47.05% and 56.43% YoY, respectively. [Guangzhou: Removing Restrictions on "Only Housing in the City" and Number of Provident Fund Loan Uses] On May 26, 2026, the Guangzhou Housing Provident Fund Management Center issued the normative document "Measures for Converting Commercial Personal Housing Loans to Housing Provident Fund Personal Housing Loans in Guangzhou (Interim)." It proposed expanding the scope of commercial loan banks by removing the restriction that "the original commercial loan bank must be a housing provident fund entrusted bank," allowing commercial loans from non-housing provident fund handling banks to be converted into pure housing provident fund loans. Requirements on loan types, terms, and provident fund contribution periods were relaxed. For commercial-to-provident-fund conversion handled by housing provident fund loan handling banks, applicants whose convertible provident fund loan amount is not enough to fully repay the original commercial loan principal and interest may choose to convert to a combined loan. The requirement for account opening and cumulative housing provident fund contribution period was reduced from "60 months" to "36 months." The original commercial loan disbursement period was shortened from "more than 3 years" to "more than 2 years." Restrictions on "only housing in the city" and the number of provident fund loan uses were removed, no longer requiring that "the mortgaged property is the applicant's family's only housing in the city," supporting applications for first and second improved housing. Applicants who "have never used or have used housing provident fund loans only once" may also apply for commercial-to-provident-fund conversion, free from the restriction of "never having used housing provident fund loans." (Jin10 Data) [Xiong'an New Area: Maximum Housing Provident Fund Loan Amount Raised to 800,000 Yuan] Notice of the Xiong'an New Area Housing Management Center on Optimizing and Adjusting Housing Provident Fund Withdrawal and Loan Policies. The policy stipulates that for depositors meeting the New Area's rental housing withdrawal conditions, those who have not registered a housing lease contract may withdraw up to 17,000 yuan per year; those who have registered a housing lease contract on the "Hebei Xiong'an New Area Housing Rental Information Service Platform" may withdraw up to 25,000 yuan per year. Depositors purchasing owner-occupied housing in the New Area and applying for housing provident fund loans may borrow up to 800,000 yuan. Employees of Beijing-sourced relocated units whose housing provident fund deposit location is in the New Area may borrow up to 1.2 million yuan when purchasing owner-occupied housing in the New Area and applying for housing provident fund loans. Families with two or more children purchasing owner-occupied housing in the New Area and applying for housing provident fund loans may have their maximum loan amount increased by 200,000 yuan. For employee families who have only one housing provident fund loan record nationwide that has been fully repaid and own no property in the New Area, the first-home housing provident fund loan policy shall apply. (Xiong'an Provident Fund) [Supreme Court's Liu Guixiang: Preventing and Resolving Risks in Key Areas Such as Finance and Real Estate] On May 27, Liu Guixiang, Vice-Ministerial-Level Full-Time Member of the Adjudication Committee and Second-Grade Grand Justice of the Supreme People's Court, stated at a press conference held by the State Council Information Office that the people's courts will fully safeguard national security and social stability, punish criminal acts that endanger national security, public safety, and undermine the socialist market economic order in accordance with the law, and adhere to market-oriented and rule-of-law principles to coordinate administrative, civil, and criminal adjudication functions to prevent and resolve risks in key areas such as finance and real estate. [China Index Academy: Property Developers' Bond Financing in April Up Nearly 30% YoY] The latest data released by the China Index Academy showed that in April, total bond financing in the real estate sector reached 61.48 billion yuan, up 28.8% YoY and up 18.5% MoM. Specifically, credit bond financing in the real estate sector totaled 37.48 billion yuan (up 2.6% YoY, down 9.1% MoM), accounting for 61%; ex-China bond financing was 3.43 billion yuan, accounting for 5.6%; ABS financing was 20.57 billion yuan (up 83.9% YoY, up 93.1% MoM), accounting for 33.5%. [Marco Polo: Q2 Sales Improved QoQ] Marco Polo stated at a recent earnings briefing that in Q1 2026, affected by the late Chinese New Year holiday and slow market activation, the industry overall declined YoY to some extent. Since Q2, the real estate market in some cities has shown structural stabilization and recovery, with new home markets broadly stopping falling, and second-hand housing prices in core cities such as Guangzhou, Shenzhen, and Hangzhou beginning to rise with active transactions. The company adopted multiple measures, including building regional empowerment centers, promoting the sinking of its dealer network, expanding non-residential project business, and strengthening cooperation with whole-house decoration enterprises, resulting in a QoQ improvement in sales in Q2. [Guangzhou Anju Group to Launch Pilot Work Supporting Residents in "Selling Old and Buying New"] On May 26, Guangzhou held a press conference on the series of supporting documents for the "Implementation Opinions on Further Promoting the Stable and Healthy Development of the Real Estate Market." Qian Zhe, Deputy Secretary of the Party Committee and General Manager of Guangzhou Anju Group, stated that to support residents in improving their housing conditions and facilitate the exchange chain between pre-owned and new housing, Anju Group will immediately launch pilot work supporting residents in "selling old and buying new," with a trial period ending on December 31, 2026. Following the principle of "government guidance, market-based operation, and voluntary participation," the group will acquire pre-owned residential properties through market-oriented approaches. The pilot acquisition targets pre-owned residential properties within Guangzhou's Ring Expressway, with a total price of no more than 3 million yuan, a floor area of less than 70 m², and no restriction on building age. The acquired old properties will be prioritized for use as affordable housing, talent apartments, and other purposes, primarily serving the housing needs of new urban residents, young people, and other groups, as well as resident relocation for urban self-renewal projects. [Guangzhou Huadu District Sees "Rising Volume, Stable Prices, and Active Transactions" After New Policy Implementation] On May 26, Guangzhou held a press conference on the series of supporting documents for the "Implementation Opinions on Further Promoting the Stable and Healthy Development of the Real Estate Market." Mai Shaoming, Deputy District Head of Huadu District, Guangzhou, stated that after the implementation of the "Eight Measures for Guangzhou," Huadu District took the lead in the city to introduce the "Eight Measures for Huadu." Since the new policy took effect, the real estate market in Huadu District has seen a sustained rebound in market activity and a continuous release of transaction vitality. Project visits, subscriptions, policy inquiries, and pre-owned housing market transactions all surged significantly. Policy inquiries focused on core topics such as pre-sale school enrollment eligibility, online contract-based school enrollment, and trade-in policy subsidies. The overall market demonstrated a positive trend of "rising volume, stable prices, and active transactions." [Xiamen Introduces Six Housing Provident Fund Measures: "Sell Old, Buy New" Loans to Be Executed at First-Home Interest Rates] On May 19, the Xiamen Housing Provident Fund Center announced on its website that, in order to implement the spirit of the "Several Opinions on Further Promoting the Stable Development of the Real Estate Market" issued by the Fujian Provincial Department of Housing and Urban-Rural Development, and in light of Xiamen's actual conditions, the city introduced six housing provident fund measures upon approval by the Xiamen Housing Provident Fund Management Committee. Among them, it was proposed that "sell old, buy new" loans be executed at first-home interest rates. If a depositor sells a self-owned property within Fujian Province and purchases a second self-occupied property in Xiamen within 12 months, and applies for a housing provident fund loan that meets the lending conditions, the loan will be executed at the first-home housing provident fund loan interest rate. Housing provident fund loans for multi-child families are executed at first-home loan interest rates. For multi-child families purchasing a second owner-occupied home in the city and applying for housing provident fund loans, those meeting the provident fund loan conditions will have loans executed at first-home housing provident fund loan interest rates. [Hunan Issued Policies to Support Acquisition of Existing Commercial Housing and Housing "Trade-in"] On May 13, the Hunan Provincial Department of Housing and Urban-Rural Development, together with nine departments including the Provincial Development and Reform Commission and the Provincial Department of Finance, issued the "Several Measures of Hunan Province to Further Promote Stable and Healthy Development of the Real Estate Market." This "New Xiang Ten Measures" is an optimization and upgrade based on the 2025 "Several Measures of Hunan Province to Promote Stable and Healthy Development of the Real Estate Market," focusing on formulating relevant support measures in areas such as acquisition of existing commercial housing, housing "trade-in," "quality housing" construction, "three-in-one" housing projects, and provident fund policy optimization. The "New Xiang Ten Measures" specified that for loans applied for purchasing newly-built commercial housing within the province (including housing provident fund loans and commercial loans), housing unit counts are determined at the county/city/district (park) level; for those already owning housing in the county/city/district (park) where the intended purchase is located, one housing unit is deducted from the count; the minimum down payment ratio of 30% for commercial property loans is implemented. [Hunan: College Graduates and High-level Talents Staying in or Coming to Hunan for Employment and Entrepreneurship Can Apply for Loans After 1 Month of Provident Fund Contributions] On May 13, the Hunan Provincial Department of Housing and Urban-Rural Development and eight other departments issued the "Several Measures of Hunan Province to Further Promote Stable and Healthy Development of the Real Estate Market." The "New Xiang Ten Measures" proposed that for college graduates, young talents, and high-level talents staying in or coming to Hunan who apply for housing provident fund loans for their first home purchase within the province, they can apply after only 1 month of contributions, with maximum preferential down payment ratios, and the maximum loan amount may not be linked to account balances but reasonably determined based on work compensation base and labor (employment) contract duration. Among them, the maximum housing provident fund loan amount for high-level talents can be relaxed to 4 times the standard, and for college graduates and young talents staying in or coming to Hunan for employment and entrepreneurship, it can be relaxed to 2 times. For first-marriage and first-birth families and families with two or more children using housing provident fund loans to purchase newly-built commercial housing, the loan amount cap is further increased by more than 30%. The age limit for housing provident fund personal loans is extended, with a maximum of 5 years added beyond the statutory retirement age. [A Residential Land Parcel in Nanchang Sold at 12.5% Premium] On May 8, Nanchang sold a residential land parcel with a transfer area of 12.1409 mu and a planned building area of 9,712.72 sqm, with a floor area ratio of 1.1. The starting land price was 4 million yuan/mu, totaling a starting price of 48.56 million yuan, with a starting floor price of 5,000 yuan/sqm. Ultimately, Yingtan Wanjing Real Estate Development Co., Ltd. won the land parcel at a land price of 4.5 million yuan per mu, equivalent to a total price of 54.63 million yuan, with a transaction floor price of 5,625 yuan/㎡ and a premium rate of 12.5%. [Beijing Real Estate Market Activity Climbs, Pre-owned Home Trading Volume Hits Nearly 5-Year High] During this year's Labour Day holiday, as new real estate policies were intensively rolled out in multiple cities, real estate market activity climbed. In Beijing, the pre-owned housing market continued the momentum since April, with trading volume and showing volume rising steadily. The latest data showed that during the first four days of the Labour Day holiday, the number of pre-owned home transactions in Beijing surged 72% YoY, indicating strong market performance. In April, which just ended, Beijing's pre-owned home trading volume reached nearly 18,000 units, hitting the highest level for the same period in nearly five years. [Guangzhou Labour Day Holiday New Residential Subscription Volume Up Over 50% YoY] On May 6, it was learned from the Guangzhou Municipal Housing and Urban-Rural Development Bureau that during the Labour Day holiday, Guangzhou's real estate market activity rebounded significantly, with both new and pre-owned residential markets improving in tandem and a clear recovery trend in the property market. Data showed that from May 1 to 5, the new residential market in Guangzhou heated up notably, with a citywide daily average of 8,692 visits to new residential projects (up 30.8% YoY) and a daily average subscription volume of 634 units (up 50.1% YoY). The pre-owned residential market maintained steady growth. During the holiday, daily average showings and daily average subscription volume grew 15.6% and 5.2% respectively compared with April, while subscription volume was up 63.4% YoY. Meanwhile, new listing volume of pre-owned homes pulled back somewhat. A spokesperson from the Guangzhou Municipal Housing and Urban-Rural Development Bureau stated that on April 30, Guangzhou issued implementation guidelines on further promoting stable and healthy development of the real estate market, proposing multiple measures covering areas such as optimizing housing provident fund usage and facilitating property swap chains. The policy dividends were quickly transmitted, and market response was evident. [Zhongshan, Guangdong: Pre-owned Housing Acquired by Developers Can Be Resold; Minimum Down Payment for Commercial Property Loans Set at 30%] The Zhongshan Municipal Housing and Urban-Rural Development Bureau of Guangdong Province issued the "Several Measures for Continuously Promoting Stable and Healthy Development of the Real Estate Market in Zhongshan" to further implement the digestion of existing housing inventory and optimize incremental housing supply, and to better meet residents' essential and upgrading housing needs. The "Several Measures" comprised seven articles, including continuing to support residential housing trade-in policies; encouraging market-oriented operation of commodity housing trade-in programs; increasing housing provident fund support for home purchases; optimizing the criteria for determining the number of housing units under provident fund loans; accelerating destocking of commercial properties and encouraging multiple approaches to revitalize existing resources; increasing financial support and lowering the minimum down payment ratio for commercial property purchase loans; and piloting housing voucher-based resettlement compensation. Among them, the Several Measures stipulate that repurchased old housing can be resold, renovated and then sold, or used for market-oriented rental housing, talent apartments, affordable rental housing, etc. The minimum down payment ratio for commercial property purchase loans was adjusted to no less than 30%. [China Real Estate News: Stabilizing the Property Market Requires Good "Forward Planning"] On May 4, China Real Estate News published an editorial stating that amid complex and volatile internal and external shocks, the property market's performance since the beginning of this year was hard-won, and will lay a solid foundation and inject firm confidence for efforts to stabilize the real estate market. Therefore, the upcoming months of May and June are crucial, and localities should continue to do good "forward planning." The more detailed and thorough the work on "forward planning" for stabilizing the real estate market, the more solid the foundation for market stability. The stability and vitality of the property market should be reflected in the transformation of "good housing" toward higher quality, and the innovation momentum of "good housing" should be further released and continuously expanded. The stability and vitality of the property market should also be reflected in the overall satisfaction of demand, and the housing replacement cycle should be further facilitated. The core value of the housing trade-in policy lies in breaking this deadlock through institutional innovation. Localities should build bridges between old housing disposal and new housing purchase through government guidance, state-owned enterprise participation, and market-based operations, both facilitating the replacement process and reassuring buyers of price stability. Meanwhile, financial support will be increased for converting existing commercial housing into affordable housing, resettlement housing, dormitories, and talent housing. This will provide stable absorption channels for inventory to accelerate market clearing, effectively broaden the supply sources of affordable housing, shorten construction cycles, and address the housing difficulties of key groups such as low- and middle-income groups, new urban residents, and young people at relatively low social costs, forming an overall favorable landscape where new housing is well managed, second-hand housing is active, and the high-end has a market, the mid-end has support, and the low-end has guarantees, building momentum for real estate market stability and high-quality development. [Suzhou: Raising Maximum Housing Provident Fund Loan Limits, with Individual Maximum Loan Amount Adjusted to 1.5 Million Yuan] Suzhou recently issued several measures to further promote stable and healthy development of the real estate market. Among them, it mentioned optimizing the criteria for determining the number of provident fund loans and housing units, with first-home provident fund loan policies applied when applicants have no outstanding provident fund loan balance nationwide. The maximum provident fund loan limits were raised, with the individual maximum loan amount adjusted to 1.5 million yuan and the family maximum loan amount adjusted to 2 million yuan. For purchases of newly built green residential buildings rated two-star or above, the provident fund loan amount can be increased by 20%; for purchases of newly built "dual-smart and fully-equipped" improved housing, the provident fund loan amount can be increased by 50%. For purchases of newly built commercial housing projects sold as completed properties, the provident fund loan amount can be increased by 50%. Provident fund loans can be applied for when purchasing completed property-right apartments. [Wuhan Announces New Property Market Policies, Expanding the Scope of Cross-City Housing Provident Fund Loans] On April 30, the Wuhan Housing and Urban Renewal Bureau, Wuhan Municipal Finance Bureau, and Wuhan Housing Provident Fund Management Center issued the Notice on Further Optimizing and Improving the City's Real Estate Policy Measures. The notice proposed that from May 1 to December 31, 2026, when resident families apply for commercial personal housing loans to purchase newly built commercial housing, if family members have no complete housing units in the district where the intended new commercial housing is located, the purchase will be recognized as the family's first home. Employees contributing to provident funds in cities nationwide who purchase self-owned housing in Wuhan or have outstanding commercial housing loans may apply for housing provident fund loans from the Wuhan Provident Fund Center, with the restriction requiring borrowers (including spouses) to hold Wuhan household registration removed. [Zhanjiang Optimizes Property Market Policies: Housing Purchase Subsidies and Provident Fund Loan Limits Increased] According to the Zhanjiang Municipal Housing and Urban-Rural Development Bureau, to adapt to the new situation in the real estate market, Zhanjiang introduced the "Zhanjiang Seven Measures" policy aimed at promoting housing absorption and optimizing supply. The policies include raising housing provident fund loan limits, with the maximum loan amount for homebuyers reaching 1.2 million yuan, and military families eligible for an additional 200,000 yuan in loans; implementing housing purchase subsidies, with buyers eligible for subsidies of up to 20,000 yuan. The policies also cover reducing real estate enterprises' operating costs, optimizing residential design, streamlining approval processes, and supporting the sound development of the real estate industry and urban construction. The policies take effect immediately and are valid for three years. [Tianjin Optimizes Real Estate Supply to Promote Housing Consumption] Tianjin issued a notice on optimizing the city's real estate supply to promote housing consumption. It mentioned using special bond funds to reclaim and repurchase existing idle land. Enterprises are supported in advancing the continued development of real estate projects through reasonable optimization of design requirements and other means. Business entities that repurchase existing commercial housing for use as rental housing may enjoy preferential tax policies related to housing rental if they meet the conditions. For cases where existing commercial housing is certified as being converted into allocation-based affordable rental housing, the land use nature will not be changed within the original land use period, no supplementary land price will be required, and preferential pricing policies for water, electricity, gas, and heating will be enjoyed in accordance with national and municipal regulations. The national tax policy supporting residents' housing replacement purchases is implemented. From January 1, 2026 to December 31, 2027, taxpayers who sell self-owned housing within Tianjin and repurchase housing in Tianjin within one year after the sale of their current housing will be eligible for a refund of the individual income tax already paid on the sale of their current housing. [Shenzhen Municipal Housing and Construction Bureau Issues Notice on Further Optimizing and Adjusting the City's Real Estate-Related Policies] On April 29, the Shenzhen Municipal Housing and Construction Bureau issued a notice to further optimize real estate regulatory policies. Regarding purchase restrictions, eligible resident families may purchase one additional housing unit within the areas of Futian, Nanshan, and Xin'an Sub-district in Bao'an; non-Shenzhen-registered families holding valid residence permits may also purchase one unit in the above areas. Regarding provident funds, the maximum family loan amount was raised to 1.3 million yuan, with first-home buyers and multi-child families eligible for a maximum increase of 70%. The new policy takes effect from May 29. [Zhuhai Municipal Housing and Urban-Rural Development Bureau and Five Other Departments Optimize and Adjust the City's Real Estate Policy Measures] The Zhuhai Municipal Housing and Urban-Rural Development Bureau and five other departments issued a notice on optimizing and adjusting the city's real estate policy measures. The notice proposed optimizing housing provident fund loan policies. First, raising housing provident fund loan limits. For those eligible for provident fund loans, the maximum housing provident fund personal housing loan amounts for single- and dual-contributor employee families were adjusted from 800,000 yuan to 1 million yuan and from 1.3 million yuan to 1.5 million yuan, respectively. Second, expanding the scope of housing purchase support for multi-child families. When multi-child families apply for provident fund loans to purchase a second self-occupied housing unit, the loan amount may be increased by 20% above the eligible loan amount, but shall not exceed the city's maximum provident fund loan limit. Third, raising the loan amount increase ratio for purchasing green buildings. When contributing employees purchase commercial housing that meets the national two-star green building standard or commercial housing in certified prefabricated building projects, the loan amount may be increased by 20% above the eligible loan amount, but shall not exceed the city's maximum provident fund loan limit; for purchases of commercial housing meeting the national three-star green building standard, the loan amount may be increased by 30% above the eligible loan amount, but shall not exceed the city's maximum provident fund loan limit. [Foshan Launches Commercial Housing "Trade-in" Program! First Batch Involves 22 Projects] Recently, the Notice of the Foshan Municipal Housing and Urban-Rural Development Bureau on Organizing the First Batch of Commercial Housing "Trade-in" Program was officially released. This is not a simple encouragement document; it is a solution that systematically unblocks replacement bottlenecks through model innovation and a policy package. It promotes the real estate market's transition from "one-sided transactions" to a "virtuous cycle between existing and incremental housing," achieving multi-party wins for residents, enterprises, and the market. The innovation of Foshan's trade-in policy lies in introducing multiple real estate enterprises to participate jointly: Foshan Anju, Chancheng Anju, Nanhai Youju, Shunde Chengtie, Gaoming Airport Construction, and Sanshui Anju serve as repurchasing entities; Foshan Chengfa, Foshan Urban Renewal, Foshan Lianzhi, Heyue Yaji, Shunkong Chengtou, Yongdeli Commerce, Sanshui Chanfa, and Miaohui Real Estate provide new housing sources. This model determines old housing value through negotiation and sets a "contract termination protection period" to avoid blindly pushing for lower prices, thereby completing the "sell old, buy new" closed loop and serving as a market stabilizer. Voices from Various Parties BOC International Securities believes the real estate industry is at an important window where fundamentals and market expectations are resonating in recovery. Current policies continue to exert force, with first-tier cities optimizing purchase and loan restrictions and core cities optimizing provident fund policies, all of which have had a certain effect on releasing genuine housing demand, with some first-tier city property markets seeing a sustained two-month recovery. In the short term, the window of resonance between policy and high-frequency transaction improvement remains, and it is necessary to track whether the subsequent transaction recovery trend can continue, which will depend on inventory destocking progress and whether prices stabilize. From an investment perspective, most real estate enterprises made relatively large impairment provisions in 2025, and may consolidate at lows in 2026, so sector profit margins and performance may rebound in 2027, potentially leading to improved market valuations for 27E in Q4 this year. In addition, some commercial property holding companies have already positioned themselves ahead in new business formats, new models, and new scenarios, and are better positioned to seize opportunities in the new consumption era. A China Post Securities research report shows that in the phase where policy and high-frequency transactions are "resonating but not fully," the industry's β remains constrained by the verification progress of "destocking and price stabilization." The pattern of second-hand housing recovering first while new housing lags continues, and capital in the secondary market continues to favor assets with α characteristics (those deeply rooted in core cities, with precise land acquisition, and strong product and operational capabilities). Although there is policy support and improvement in the second-hand housing chain in core cities, land and new construction starts remain weak, and fluctuations in net financing suggest that industry clearing has not concluded, and β rallies remain susceptible to data disturbances. Against this backdrop, China Post Securities recommends focusing on China Resources Land, China Overseas Land & Investment, China Jinmao, Poly Property and China Merchants Shekou. Huayuan Securities' research report believes that in 2026, three major trends are worth anticipating: 1) The real estate adjustment is expected to near its end: reviewing real estate crises in major global economies, the average decline was 35% with an average adjustment period of 6 years, and the length and depth of China's actual housing price adjustment have already been relatively sufficient. 2) Structural opportunities in "good housing": China's real estate market has entered a phase of structural differentiation, with the central government frequently mentioning the construction of good housing. Under the catalyst of policy orientation and changes in supply-demand structure, high-grade residential properties may usher in a development wave. 3) Hong Kong property market recovery continues: driven by multiple favorable factors, market sentiment in Hong Kong's private residential market has gradually recovered, and they believe Hong Kong-based developers are expected to see a new round of value re-rating. They maintain a "bullish" rating on real estate. A CITIC Securities research report stated that in April, the floor space of commercial buildings sold nationwide fell 9.5% YoY, with the decline widening 2.1 percentage points from March; sales revenue fell 7.6% YoY, with the decline narrowing 5.7 percentage points from March. New and second-hand housing prices continued to adjust. In April, the MoM decline in the price indices of newly built commercial residential housing and second-hand residential housing across 70 large and medium-sized cities nationwide remained flat MoM. Second-hand housing prices in first-tier cities all rose, with second-hand residential prices in Shanghai, Beijing, Shenzhen, and Guangzhou up 0.7%, 0.4%, 0.3%, and 0.2% MoM, respectively. First-tier city property markets continued to recover, and the real estate market is gradually stopping its decline and stabilizing. They are bullish on Hong Kong, commercial properties, and quality enterprises focused on core city tracks.

In May, China's aluminum fabrication industry recorded an overall PMI of 50.8%, barely staying above the 50 mark but pulling back significantly by 3.1 percentage points from April. Industry sentiment slid from the edge of expansion territory toward the critical threshold, with structural divergence intensifying further.