Futures: Overnight, LME lead opened at $1,965/mt, fluctuating downward during the Asian session; it dipped to $1,948.5/mt upon entering the European session, but then rose due to a weakening US dollar index, touching a high of $1,976.5/mt before finally settling at $1,974.5/mt. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE lead 2603 contract opened at 16,665 yuan/mt, briefly touched a low of 16,560 yuan/mt early in the session, then rebounded as bears reduced positions, reaching a high of 16,680 yuan/mt before finally settling at 16,665 yuan/mt, up 0.48%, forming a doji star. On the macro front: As markets awaited a series of US economic data, a weaker US dollar made dollar-denominated commodities more attractive to overseas buyers; spot gold extended gains. The White House's Hassett predicted worsening employment: AI boosts productivity, reduces labor demand. Alphabet planned to raise about $15 billion by issuing US dollar bonds. China's Ministry of Commerce held a symposium with automakers: Multiple measures to promote the expansion and quality improvement of auto consumption. The Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing Stock Exchanges announced a package of measures to optimize refinancing. Seven departments including the Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security provided administrative guidance on employment to leading platform companies and courier firms. Three departments including the Ministry of Finance issued an announcement on tax incentives for re-exported cross-border e-commerce goods. : SHFE lead stopped falling and stabilized, but as the Chinese New Year holiday approached, logistics vehicles halted in some regions, leading to reduced shipments and quotations from suppliers. Only some cargoes self-picked up from primary lead smelters were quoted at premiums of 0-50 yuan/mt against the SMM #1 lead average price ex-works. In the secondary lead sector, more smelters were on holiday and reluctant to sell at low prices, with most enterprises suspending quotations; a few secondary refined lead offers were at discounts of 25 yuan/mt to premiums of 50 yuan/mt against the SMM #1 lead average price ex-works. Downstream enterprises generally entered the year-end wrap-up phase, with minimal inquiries, resulting in thin trading in the spot market. Inventory: On February 9, LME lead inventory decreased by 100 mt to 232,750 mt. As of February 9, SMM lead ingot social inventory across five regions rose to a five-month high. Today's lead price forecast: With previously in-transit lead ingots by rail concentratedly arriving at warehouses, social inventory of lead ingots increased significantly, mainly reflected in Jiangsu and Zhejiang region warehouses. Last week, lead prices fell, prompting lead-acid battery enterprises to conduct relatively concentrated stockpiling of lead ingots, leading to a noticeable decline in lead smelters' in-factory inventory. This week being the last before the Chinese New Year, the final batch of lead-acid battery enterprises will enter the holiday state, further weakening lead consumption. Meanwhile, with the start of the Spring Festival travel season, migrant workers have returned to their hometowns, and the number of vehicles in operation has gradually decreased. Currently, some regions no longer support road transportation. It is expected that the growth momentum of social inventory for lead ingots will slow down, and the inventory buildup of lead ingots is anticipated to be more reflected in the smelters' plant inventories. Overall, lead prices are in the doldrums ahead of the holiday. Data Source Statement: Except for publicly available information, other data are processed by SMM based on public information, market communication, and SMM's internal database model, for reference only and do not constitute decision-making advice.

Historically, domestic zinc concentrate production typically declines continuously from December to February each year. There are two main reasons: first, some mines undergo routine shutdowns in winter due to weather conditions; second, the Chinese New Year holiday falls early in the year, during which many mines suspend operations or conduct maintenance. As this year's Chinese New Year holiday approaches, how will these factors specifically affect domestic zinc concentrate supply？

[Galvanising enterprises mostly on holiday, operating rates drop significantly]: This week, the operating rate of the galvanizing industry was 16.25%, down 22.35 percentage points WoW. From the raw material side, zinc prices mainly fluctuated this week, but most downstream enterprises were on holiday, with pricing being the main activity and fewer cargo pick-ups. However, large plants had basically received long-term contract goods by the beginning of the week, and zinc ingot inventories at galvanising enterprises increased slightly.

According to an announcement issued by the Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration, starting from April 1, 2026, the VAT export tax rebates for products such as ceramics and PV will be fully abolished (the original rebate rates were mostly 9%–13%).

[SMM Morning Meeting Summary: US December Retail Sales Unexpectedly Stagnate, LME Zinc Center Shifts Upward] Overnight, the LME zinc contract opened at $3,367.5/mt. At the beginning of the session, bulls and bears were intertwined, and LME zinc experienced wide swings along the daily average line, touching a low of $3,351/mt during the period. Subsequently, bulls increased their positions, and LME zinc rose during the night session, reaching a high of $3,405/mt towards the end of the session. It finally closed up at $3,398/mt, an increase of $14/mt, a gain of 0.47%. The trading volume increased to 8,008 lots, and the open interest increased by 1,328 lots to 231,000 lots.

[SMM Zinc Morning Comment] Overnight, the most-traded SHFE zinc 2604 contract opened at 24,410 yuan/mt. At the beginning of the session, zinc briefly fell to a low of 24,370 yuan/mt, then bulls increased positions, lifting the price center. Zinc fluctuated upward and touched a high of 24,540 yuan/mt by the end of the session, with the closing price at the intraday high. It finally settled at 24,540 yuan/mt, up 35 yuan/mt or 0.14%. Trading volume decreased to 17,804 lots, while open interest increased by 515 lots to 79,245 lots.

[SMM Aluminum Weekly Review: Macro Sentiment Remains Lackluster, Aluminum Prices in the Doldrums]

In early February, the rhenium market showed a diverging trend of cooling trading activity alongside rising prices. Affected by a mix of factors, supply-demand dynamics in the market have become increasingly competitive, market participants have grown more cautious, and the overall market has displayed distinct phased characteristics. In terms of trading activity, market liquidity for rhenium weakened notably in early February compared with late January, mainly driven by sentiment spillover from the gold and silver markets. Recent price volatility in gold and silver has fostered a wait-and-see mood across the precious metals sector, which indirectly spread to scattered rare metals such as rhenium and slowed overall trading pace. Most market activity consisted of inquiries, with many investors remaining cautious; actual transactions were limited, supported only by small-volume rigid orders. Meanwhile, mild selling by retail investors emerged, reflecting uncertainty over the short-term outlook and further dampening trading sentiment. On the price front, despite weaker trading, rhenium prices remained firm and trended steadily higher, driven primarily by tight supply at the raw material upstream. Ammonium rhenate, the key feedstock for rhenium production, stayed in short supply with prices rising continuously, sharply pushing up raw material costs for downstream smelters. Supported by cost pass-through, end-product prices such as rhenium pellets also moved higher. However, as ammonium rhenate prices kept climbing, downstream smelters faced intense cost pressure. Some producers reported that price adjustments for finished products could not keep up with raw material inflation, squeezing profit margins, and a number of processors planned to raise the proportion of scrap recycling. Looking ahead, the supply picture for ammonium rhenate may see marginal improvement. Attracted by expanding profit margins, many copper‑molybdenum smelters have begun considering recovering ammonium rhenate via smelting by‑processing, which would help ease tight supply to some extent. That said, rhenium is a scattered rare metal present at very low concentrations in copper‑molybdenum ores, and recovery involves technical barriers. Even with increased recovery efforts, output will remain limited, implying a persistent supply deficit in the ammonium rhenate market. In terms of market expectations, the recent failed bidding for 3 tonnes of ammonium rhenate for Sinopec’s catalyst demand indirectly reflected producers’ optimistic outlook. Suppliers widely expect further upside for ammonium rhenate prices and were unwilling to sell in large quantities at current levels, resulting in the unsuccessful tender. Overall, rhenium prices are expected to stay firm in the short term, supported by tight raw material supply and producer reluctance to sell. Over the longer term, rising recovery from copper‑molybdenum smelters may alleviate supply pressure, but a supply gap will persist. The rhenium market is likely to remain high and volatile, with industry profit distribution continuing to shift alongside changes in supply and demand.

[SMM Tin Midday Review: The Most-Traded SHFE Tin Contract Continues to Trade in a Narrow Range with Low Volume Before the Holiday, AI Sentiment Recovery Drives Prices to Hold Up Slightly Stronger]

Futures: Overnight, LME lead opened low at $1,974.5/mt, fluctuated upward during the Asian session; climbed to a high of $1,996/mt during the European session, and finally closed at $1,994.5/mt, up 0.86%. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE lead 2603 contract opened at 16,800 yuan/mt, touched a high of 16,805 yuan/mt early in the session, then weakened and probed lower to 16,700 yuan/mt due to the dual decline in fundamental supply and demand, finally closing at 16,725 yuan/mt, down 0.09%. On the macro front: US January seasonally adjusted non-farm payrolls increased by 130,000, significantly exceeding market expectations and marking the largest increase since April 2025; the unemployment rate unexpectedly fell to 4.3%, hitting a new low since August 2025; following the non-farm data release, traders lowered expectations for US Fed interest rate cuts. The Central Bank of Kenya joined African gold accumulation efforts, planning gold purchases to strengthen buffer capacity. Indonesia plans to cut production at the world's largest nickel mine by 70%. The State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission of the State Council is promoting central state-owned enterprises to actively expand effective investment in computing power. Ministry of Commerce: The prize pool for the lottery invoice event during the 9-day Chinese New Year holiday will exceed 1 billion yuan. : The Chinese New Year atmosphere is strong in the Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Shanghai market, most suppliers have suspended quotations, only a few can offer primary lead cargoes self-picked up from production site, but currently vehicles are scarce, except for a very few ultra-short distances that can barely manage delivery, the vast majority of lead ingots require pick-up after the holiday. Secondary lead spot order prices are sporadic, enterprise transaction willingness is weak, most enterprises have entered the holiday and suspended shipments and quotations. Simultaneously, most downstream enterprises have entered the holiday break, the final batch of lead-acid battery enterprises will also start their holiday this Saturday, downstream inquiries are minimal, and trading in the spot market is light on both sides. Inventory: On February 11, LME lead inventory increased by 200 mt to 232,950 mt. As of February 9, the SMM lead ingot five-region social inventory increased to a five-month high. Today's Lead Price Forecast: Approaching the Chinese New Year holiday, spot quotations continue to decrease, downstream battery enterprises have largely entered the holiday, and lead ingot purchase willingness is sluggish. Supply and demand both decline in the spot market, individual producers offer pre-sale post-holiday pick-up prices, spot order transactions are thin. Downstream battery producers are expected to resume production by late February to early March; post-holiday focus will be on lead ingot inventory buildup and the impact of secondary lead national standard delivery matters on lead price sentiment. Data Source Statement: Data other than public information is processed by SMM based on public information, market communication, and relying on SMM's internal database model, for reference only and does not constitute decision-making advice.