While Asian 304 2B cold-rolled coil prices remained stable last week, Chinese Taiwan’s export offers continued to climb. This surge is driven by increased production costs and firm pricing strategies from mills, further fueled by geopolitical instability in the Middle East. Chinese export offers stayed flat due to sluggish domestic demand; however, a stronger Chinese Yuan and rising local prices suggest potential hikes ahead. In raw materials, LME nickel prices rebounded by US$142, while Indonesian NPI prices faced further declines. Market participants expect continued volatility for Asian CRC as weak demand balances against rising input expenses.

Jakarta, April 14, 2026 – Indonesia's Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (ESDM) officially issued Ministerial Decree No. 144.K/MB.01/MEM.B/2026, revising the calculation formula for the Nickel Ore Benchmark Price (HPM). The regulation will officially take effect on April 15, 2026, marking a significant shift in resource valuation policy for Indonesia, the world's largest nickel producer. The new decree revised the previous Decree No. 268.K/2025, with core changes aimed at reflecting the true commercial value of nickel ore and its associated minerals: 1. Adjustment of the Correction Factor (CF): · The correction factor for 1.6% grade nickel ore was significantly raised from the original 17% to 30%. · For every 0.1% increase or decrease in nickel grade, the correction factor will be adjusted inversely by 1%. 2. Inclusion of Associated Mineral Value: · The new formula for the first time explicitly incorporated associated minerals such as cobalt (Co), iron (Fe), and chromium (Cr) into the HPM calculation. · Cobalt: Included when content >= 0.05%, with the correction factor (CF) set at 30%. · Iron: Included when content <= 35%, with the correction factor (CF) set at 30%. · Chromium: The correction factor set at 10%. 3. New Pricing Formula: HPM Nickel Ore = [(Nickel HMA * %Ni * CF) + (Cobalt HMA * %Co * CF) + (Iron HMA * %Fe * CF * 100) + (Chromium HMA * %Cr * CF * 100)] * (1-MC) (Note: MC refers to moisture content) Assumptions: · Average grade: moisture content 35-40%, cobalt content 0.07% (HPAL ore), iron content 25% (saprolite ore), chromium content 3%. Based on SMM's estimates, HPM prices have the most obvious room for upward movement. · Here, HPAL ore refers to nickel ore with a grade of 1.3% and below, while saprolite ore refers to nickel ore with a grade above 1.3%.Since HPAL ore has a higher cobalt grade and iron content generally above 35%, the HPM formula for HPAL ore here only considers nickel, cobalt, and chromium, with iron not priced in. · Since saprolite ore has a lower cobalt grade and iron content generally below 35%, the HPM formula for saprolite ore here only considers nickel, iron, and chromium, with cobalt not priced in. Note: This is only a scenario assumption based on publicly available information and does not constitute actual market action advice. Please refer to actual conditions. Driven by the dynamic adjustment mechanism of the benchmark price, the nickel ore benchmark price center shifted significantly upward, providing a higher pricing anchor for mine-side sales. Overall, the CF (adjustment coefficient) for 1.6% grade nickel ore increased from 17% to 30%, driving a significant rise in the benchmark price, reflecting a policy and market reassessment of the value of medium-to-high-grade ore. As the CF increased, the linkage between ore prices and nickel content further strengthened, and price elasticity amplified accordingly. On the other hand, under the current pricing system, by-product value has been fully incorporated into consideration. In particular, the cobalt pricing mechanism provided significant support for low-grade ore (such as limonite). Benefiting from the increase in cobalt prices and its recovery value, the economics of limonite improved notably, and its price performance showed a more prominent upward trend compared to the past, gradually changing the market's traditional perception of it as a "low-value resource." Based on SMM prices, Indonesia's local laterite nickel ore at 1.2% grade (delivered price) averaged $30.5/wmt, far below the new HPM benchmark price of $40.18/wmt. The CIF price of 1.2% grade HPAL nickel ore may subsequently rise to $48.18 (40.18+8)/wmt. Indonesia's local laterite nickel ore at 1.5% grade (delivered price) averaged $70.7/wmt, above the new HPM benchmark price of $57.13/wmt, so theoretically absolute price fluctuations would not be as drastic. Assuming the tax cost increase driven by the HPM benchmark price rise is fully passed through to downstream, the absolute price of saprolite nickel ore may rise to $72.47/wmt after the new HPM benchmark price takes effect. **MHP** According to SMM estimates, taking 1.2% grade nickel ore as an example, based on the benchmark price as of April 1, the new nickel ore HPM is expected to be raised to $40.18/wmt, compared with the previous nickel ore HPM of $16/wmt. Currently, SMM's latest Indonesia's local laterite nickel ore 1.2% (port arrival price) average price is $30.5/wmt, lower than the new HPM. Assuming the HPM benchmark price serves as the minimum price floor for mines, after factoring in freight costs, the selling price of 1.2% grade HPAL ore after April 15 would be $48.18/wmt. Based on this estimate, the cost of producing MHP from externally purchased HPAL ore (after cobalt credit) will rise to approximately $17,760/mt Ni, an increase of approximately $2,600/mt Ni. **NPI** According to SMM estimates, based on the benchmark price as of April 1, taking 1.5% grade nickel ore price as an example, the nickel ore HPM price under the old formula was $26.66/wmt, while the nickel ore HPM price calculated under the new formula is $57.13/wmt, still lower than the current 1.5% Indonesia's local port arrivals under domestic trade price of $70.7/wmt. Assuming the tax cost increase resulting from the HPM price hike is fully passed through to downstream, the absolute nickel ore price is forecast to rise to approximately $72.47/wmt after the new policy is implemented. Based on this estimate, this adjustment will push the full cost of NPI up to $15,741.51/mt Ni, an increase of $570.48/mt Ni from the current level, representing a rise of approximately 3.76%, which is expected to provide further upward support for NPI prices. **Refined Nickel** On the basis of the above-mentioned increases in MHP and high-grade nickel matte raw material costs, the cost of producing refined nickel from integrated high-grade nickel matte is estimated at approximately $21,773/mt Ni, an increase of $622/mt Ni compared with before the HPM formula adjustment; the cost of producing refined nickel from integrated MHP (after cobalt credit) is estimated at approximately $20,560/mt Ni, an increase of $2,652/mt Ni compared with before the HPM formula adjustment. In addition, based on the LME spot settlement price on April 14 and the nickel intermediate product transaction coefficients (91.5% for MHP and 92.5% for high-grade nickel matte), the spot cost of producing refined nickel from externally purchased high-grade nickel matte is $18,705/mt Ni, and the spot cost of producing refined nickel from externally purchased MHP is $19,378/mt Ni. Both costs are higher than the current LME nickel prices, indicating relatively strong cost support. In summary, Indonesia's ESDM reform of the HPM benchmark price formula represents a systematic restructuring of the pricing system, upgrading nickel ore pricing from "single nickel element pricing" to "nickel + cobalt + iron + chromium multi-element comprehensive pricing," reshaping the nickel ore cost basis from multiple dimensions. In the short term, the policy landing beyond expectations has already driven nickel prices to rise significantly, with market sentiment leaning bullish; however, medium and long-term impacts depend on cost pass-through efficiency, the pace of high inventory digestion, and downstream demand absorption capacity. Going forward, close attention is still needed on the actual implementation by Indonesian mine enterprises, smelter procurement price negotiation outcomes, and the substantive magnitude of price increases for intermediate products such as MHP and NPI. Risk warning: According to ESDM Ministerial Decree NO.144.K/MB.01/MEM.B/2026, the benchmark ore price (HPM) is the minimum selling price for metal mineral sales. If metal minerals are sold below the HPM price, the HPM must still be used as the basis for calculating tax obligations and as the benchmark price for levying production fees (royalties). Therefore, the above costs are calculated based on the assumption that the wet-process ore selling price is no lower than the new HPM benchmark price. The resulting integrated MHP (after cobalt credit) production cost of refined nickel is relatively high. However, the actual selling price of nickel ore will need to be negotiated between mines and smelters, and there is a possibility that the final transaction price may be lower than the new HPM benchmark price.

LME nickel futures rebounded last Friday (April 10), closing at US$17,241/ton for a 0.9% weekly gain. The recovery was supported by a weakening US dollar, a stable Middle East ceasefire, softer-than-expected US inflation data, and firmer Chinese stainless steel futures. Despite the US$153 daily gain, April's average price remains below March levels. LME inventories edged up to 281,670 tons, rising 144 tons (+0.051%) since April. While higher nickel ore costs offer some price support, the market remains well-supplied. With weak stainless steel and new energy demand in China, nickel prices are likely to stay volatile in the near term.

According to market reports, European stainless steel alloy surcharges have seen a significant increase for April 2026. Surcharges for Grade 1.4301 (304) rose by approximately 3.6%, notably diverging from LME nickel prices, which actually declined by nearly 1% month-on-month. The primary catalyst behind this surge is the escalating price of ferrochrome, fueled by higher procurement costs, elevated energy prices, and the compounding financial impact of the CO2 tax under the CBAM, fully effective since January 1, 2026. This cost-push is most evident in chrome-heavy grades, with the surcharge for Grade 1.4016 (430) jumping by more than 5.4% compared to the previous month.

February 2026 proved to be a pivotal month of challenge and adjustment for the global stainless steel market. Driven by the compounding pressures of the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM), intensifying geopolitical trade friction, significantly tightened raw material quotas, and sudden supply chain disruptions, the market navigated a complex landscape.

SMM Nickel Market News on February 24: Macro and Market News: (1) On February 23, US media reported that the US government is considering imposing new tariffs on approximately six industries on the grounds of "national security." The proposed tariffs may cover large-scale batteries, cast iron and iron fittings, plastic pipes, industrial chemicals, as well as power grid and telecommunications equipment. These new tariffs will be implemented separately from the recently announced global 15% tariff measures. (2) A spokesperson for the Ministry of Foreign Affairs announced: At the invitation of Premier Li Qiang of the State Council, German Chancellor Merz will pay an official visit to China from February 25 to 26. Spot Market: On February 24, the price range for SMM #1 refined nickel was 137,300-147,700 yuan/mt, with an average price of 142,500 yuan/mt, up 2,400 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The spot premium quotation range for Jinchuan #1 refined nickel was 8,300-9,500 yuan/mt, with an average premium of 8,900 yuan/mt, up 50 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The spot premium/discount quotation range for mainstream domestic brands of electrodeposited nickel was -400-400 yuan/mt. Futures Market: On the first trading day after the Chinese New Year holiday, the nickel market got off to a good start. The most-traded SHFE nickel contract (2603) opened higher and continued to rise, showing strong performance. By the end of the morning session, it was quoted at 138,590 yuan/mt, up 1.77%. During the holiday, LME nickel prices rose slightly, and the SHFE nickel market saw a catch-up rally today. During the holiday, a landslide occurred at the IMIP industrial park in Indonesia, resulting in casualties and further intensifying market concerns over supply disruptions. In the short term, the most-traded SHFE nickel contract is expected to break through the 140,000 yuan/mt level again, but upside potential remains constrained by high inventory.

【SMM Morning Brief Nickel 2.24】During the 2026 Chinese New Year holiday (February 15 to February 23), the domestic SHFE nickel market was closed, while LME nickel prices showed a rebound. The nickel sulphate market was relatively quiet during the holiday, with purchasing and sales activities largely halted. On the production side, some producers maintained operations, while others suspended production for maintenance.

Review and Post-Holiday Outlook of the Nickel Intermediate Product Market During the 2026 Chinese New Year Holiday

I. Nickel Price Review During Chinese New Year During the 2026 Chinese New Year holiday (February 15–23), domestic SHFE nickel was closed, while overseas LME nickel prices showed a rebound. Pre-holiday surge: Before the holiday, Indonesia’s Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources announced that it would lock the 2026 nickel ore RKAB mining quota at approximately 260 million mt. Boosted by this positive news, market sentiment turned bullish. On February 11, LME nickel once surged to $18,070/mt, with the LME nickel 3M contract closing at $17,880/mt that day, a single-day increase of 2.93%. Post-holiday pullback then rebound: After the Chinese New Year holiday began (after February 16), domestic SHFE nickel was closed, and the pre-holiday positive news was digested. During this period, the US dollar index strengthened slightly, putting pressure on LME nickel prices, which pulled back. On February 17, LME nickel closed at $16,830/mt, down 1.81% from the previous trading day. From February 18 to 20, influenced by a tailings landslide incident at Indonesia’s IMIP park, LME nickel prices rebounded noticeably but overall remained volatile below $18,000/mt. II. Key Macro Events and Industry Developments On February 18, a tailings dam landslide occurred at the Indonesia Morowali Industrial Park (IMIP), resulting in casualties. The affected area has currently suspended operations. On February 20, the US Supreme Court ruled that the previous tariff policy of the Trump administration was illegal. In response, the Trump administration quickly invoked "Section 122" to announce a new 10% global tariff, which was further raised to 15% the following day. In terms of geopolitics, US-Iran negotiations have been volatile. Although progress was made in the February 17 talks, core disagreements remain, and the US continues to escalate military threats, increasing geopolitical uncertainty. III. Post-Holiday Outlook Supply side, due to fewer calendar days in February and the Chinese New Year holiday leading to partial shutdowns at some enterprises, production plans have been reduced. Refined nickel production in February is expected to decrease by about 5% MoM. Demand side, post-holiday, as traders and end-users resume production, market transactions are expected to gradually recover. Spot premiums for Jinchuan refined nickel are projected to remain high at 8,000–10,000 yuan/mt, while spot premiums/discounts for domestically produced electrodeposited nickel are expected to stay within the pre-holiday range of -400–400 yuan/mt, with relatively stable fluctuations. After the Chinese New Year holiday, nickel prices are expected to enter a phase of wide swings at elevated levels. On the downside, the 130,000 yuan/mt level for SHFE nickel shows strong resilience due to Indonesia's quota tightening policy; on the upside, the zone above 145,000 yuan/mt faces strong resistance from high inventory and weak demand. The core trading range for the most-traded SHFE nickel contract after the holiday is projected at 130,000-145,000 yuan/mt. Key factors to monitor include whether supply contraction expectations materialize as anticipated, as well as the pace of downstream work resumption and the strength of restocking demand.

Nickel prices experienced wild swings WoW as market expectations materialized. From the beginning to mid-week, Indonesia's ESDM Minister revealed that the 2026 nickel ore RKAB production target was set at 260-270 million mt, aligning with previous market expectations. The continuous positive developments boosted market sentiment, driving nickel prices higher in both domestic and overseas markets. The most-traded SHFE nickel contract once again broke through the 140,000 yuan/mt mark, while LME nickel prices returned above $18,000/mt. However, a significant technical pullback occurred on Friday (the last trading day before the Chinese New Year holiday). In the spot market, the average price of SMM #1 refined nickel was 141,290 yuan/mt this week, up 4,300 yuan/mt WoW. The average premium for Jinchuan nickel was 9,300 yuan/mt WoW, down 650 yuan/mt WoW. The premiums and discounts for mainstream domestic brands of electrodeposited nickel remained stable within the range of -400-400 yuan/mt. Most end-users and traders had already entered the holiday early, resulting in a relatively quiet spot market with participants mostly adopting a wait-and-see approach. On the macro front, the US Fed Chairman attended a hearing at the Senate Banking Committee this week, indicating an intention to slow the pace of balance sheet reduction while reiterating that the inflation rate remains above the long-term 2% target, suggesting that interest rates may remain unchanged for a longer period. This stance moderated the previous hawkish expectations following Wash's nomination, leading to a pullback in the US dollar index from highs. Geopolitically, on February 12, Trump stated that the US "must" reach an agreement with Iran, hoping to reach a consensus in "about a month." Domestic macro policies maintained an active tone. On Friday, the People's Bank of China conducted 100 billion yuan in 6-month (182-day) one-off reverse repo operations, aiming to maintain reasonably ample liquidity in the banking system. Inventory side, Shanghai Bonded Zone inventory was around 2,200 mt this week, flat WoW. Domestic social inventory was approximately 75,000 mt, with an inventory buildup of about 1,300 mt WoW. At the current stage, expectations regarding Indonesian policy alone cannot support a sustained rise in nickel prices. The support level around 130,000 yuan/mt for SHFE nickel shows strong resilience due to Indonesia's quota tightening policies, while the resistance above 145,000 yuan/mt remains significant due to high inventory and weak demand. After the Chinese New Year holiday, nickel prices are expected to enter a phase of wide swings at high levels, with the core trading range for the most-traded SHFE nickel contract projected at 130,000-145,000 yuan/mt. Key factors to watch include whether the anticipated supply contraction materializes as expected after the holiday, as well as the pace of downstream work resumption and the strength of restocking demand.