SMM June 22 news: Metals market: As of the midday close, base metals on the domestic market mostly fell, with only SHFE aluminum rising, up 0.4%. SHFE tin led the decline with a drop of 1.31%, SHFE nickel fell 0.84%, SHFE lead and SHFE zinc both fell 0.7%, and SHFE copper edged down 0.34%. The most-traded alumina contract fell 0.52%, while the most-traded casting aluminum contract rose 0.47%. In addition, the most-traded lithium carbonate contract fell 6.08%, the most-traded polysilicon contract fell 0.25%, and the most-traded silicon metal contract fell 0.58%. The most-traded European route container shipping index futures rose 0.11%. In the ferrous metals segment, all except stainless steel rose. Stainless steel rose 0.36%, while hot-rolled coil and iron ore both fell around 0.6%. In the coking coal and coke segment, coking coal fell 2.24% and coke fell 1.78%. On the overseas market front, as of 11:38, base metals on the LME all rose, with LME nickel leading the gains at 1.23%, LME tin up 0.88%, LME copper up 0.53%, and the other metals showing relatively small fluctuations. In precious metals, as of 11:38, COMEX gold fell 1.15%, COMEX silver fell 0.73%. Domestically, SHFE gold fell 3.25% and SHFE silver fell 5.65%. In addition, the most-traded platinum contract fell 4.77% and the most-traded palladium contract fell 3.51%. As of 11:38 on June 22, selected futures midday quotes: Spot and fundamentals Zinc: Today, mainstream transaction prices for #0 zinc were concentrated in the range of 24,495-24,790 yuan/mt, Shuangyan brand mainstream transaction prices were at 24,595-24,890 yuan/mt, and #1 zinc mainstream transaction prices were at 24,425-24,720 yuan/mt. In the morning session, quotations against the SMM average price were at premiums of 10-30 yuan/mt, while no quotes were offered against the futures market. In the second trading session, quotations for ordinary domestic brands against the 2607 contract were at discounts of 40-20 yuan/mt..... Macro front Domestic aspect: [Unchanged for the 13th consecutive month! China's latest LPR quotes released: 3.5% for the over-five-year term and 3% for the one-year term.] China’s June Loan Prime Rate (LPR) was released on June 22, with both the one-year and over-five-year LPRs unchanged. The People's Bank of China authorized the National Interbank Funding Center to announce that the LPRs on June 22, 2026 were: the one-year LPR at 3.0%, and the over-five-year LPR at 3.5%. These LPRs will remain valid until the next LPR release. [During the three-day Dragon Boat Festival holiday, cross-regional person trips nationwide are expected to exceed 650 million.] According to the Ministry of Transport, during the three-day Dragon Boat Festival holiday (June 19-21, 2026), the total cross-regional person trips nationwide were expected to be 652.78 million, with a daily average of 217.593 million, flat YoY. (（CCTV News） On the dollar front: As of 11:38 AM, the US dollar index rose 0.11% to 100.88, with markets continuing to monitor developments following the US-Iran talks. US federal funds rate futures extended their decline, indicating a 76% probability of a Fed rate hike in September. On June 19, Citadel Securities released a research note stating that under new Fed Chair Warsh, the Fed has shifted from inertial decision-making to proactive, adaptive policymaking. Citadel Securities warned that the market should not interpret this signal with inertial thinking. Its core assessment: the next move is a rate hike, and that hike is likely imminent. At the same time, the note stressed that the Fed will no longer continue its previous market-coddling approach of "pre-communicating policy paths". This shift holds significant implications for the interest rate market, the US dollar, and the stock market. Citadel Securities set its baseline scenario as three 25-basis-point rate hikes over the next two years, in September 2026, December 2026, and March 2027, and views the July meeting as a "live meeting", meaning action could be taken at any time. The Fed projects that core PCE inflation will average about 90 basis points above the 2% target over 2026-2027. Based on the inflation gap and classic monetary policy rules, Citadel Securities calculates that the policy rate should exceed the neutral rate by 1.5 times the inflation gap, implying an additional 135 basis points of tightening. Assuming a neutral rate of 3%, the target policy rate should fall in the 4.25%–4.50% range, corresponding to exactly three rate hikes. (Wall Street Insights) According to the CME FedWatch Tool: The probability that the Fed holds rates steady in July is 61.5%, and the probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point hike is 38.5%. For September, the probability of rates remaining unchanged is 24.9%, the probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point hike is 52.2%, and the probability of a cumulative 50-basis-point hike is 22.9%. (Jin10 Data) On the data front: Today will see the release of Canada's May CPI month-over-month rate, the Eurozone's preliminary June consumer confidence index, and other data. Furthermore, the State Council Information Office will hold a press conference on policies and measures to stabilize, improve, and optimize the utilization of foreign investment. ECB President Lagarde speaks at the European Parliament, and Fed Governor Waller delivers welcome remarks at a conference on the international role of the US dollar. Crude Oil: As of 11:38, both oil benchmarks fell together, with US crude down 0.11% and Brent crude down 1.24%. Crude oil prices experienced sharp rises and falls today. Earlier, Trump issued threats again during the negotiations, driving oil prices sharply higher. Subsequently, progress in the US-Iran peace negotiations dragged oil prices down. Qatar and Pakistan issued a joint statement on social media platform X, saying that the first round of high-level US-Iran talks concluded in Burgenstock, Switzerland. The parties agreed to establish a high-level committee. Chief negotiators will report regularly to the high-level committee and lead working groups responsible for nuclear issues, sanctions, and monitoring and dispute resolution. The high-level committee agreed on a roadmap aiming to reach a final agreement within 60 days. To avoid accidents and miscommunication and ensure the safe passage of merchant ships through the Strait of Hormuz, communication channels have been established. It was also agreed to set up a de-escalation group to ensure the implementation of the commitment to cease military operations within Lebanese territory. For the rest of the week, technical talks will continue in Burgenstock, discussing all related issues. (From Wallstreetcn APP) Ali Nizar, head of Iraq’s State Oil Marketing Organization (SOMO): Currently, two vessels are loading crude oil at the country’s southern terminal, but more vessels need to enter the Strait of Hormuz for production to continue rising. (Iraq 24 TV) (From Wallstreetcn APP) Iran is shipping large volumes of oil that were previously unable to be exported due to US sanctions, potentially giving it a boost after signing a temporary peace deal with Washington last Wednesday. Shipping data showed that a total of 11 tankers were spotted leaving Iran’s Chabahar port in the Gulf of Oman last week, carrying a combined 20 million barrels of crude oil. (Bloomberg) Spot Market Overview: ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ►

SMM Nickel, June 22: Macro and Market News: (1) Last Sunday’s US-Iran-Switzerland talks lasted only 1.5 hours before being suspended — Trump threatened “heavier strikes” during the negotiations, the Iranian delegation walked out in protest, Iran has announced the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, the US has threatened to “take over the waterway,” and geopolitical risks in the Middle East have surged. (2) On June 18, Pan Gongsheng, Governor of the People’s Bank of China, met with Purba Yudi Sadwa, Minister of Finance of Indonesia. Spot Market: On June 22, SMM #1 refined nickel prices fell by 2,350 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. In terms of spot premiums, the average premium for Jinchuan #1 refined nickel was 1,400 yuan/mt, flat from the previous trading day, and mainstream domestic brand electrodeposited nickel premiums ranged from -600 to 400 yuan/mt. Futures Market: The most-traded SHFE nickel contract (2607) opened sharply lower in the morning session and then rebounded strongly, closing the morning session at 135,110 yuan/mt, down 0.84%. The sudden cancellation of US-Iran peace talks has heightened geopolitical uncertainty. LME nickel remained weak during the Dragon Boat Festival holiday, and SHFE nickel opened with a sharp plunge. In the short term, nickel prices are expected to trade in the doldrums in the range of 133,000-140,000 yuan/mt.

SMM June 22: Metals markets: On Friday night, the domestic base metals market was closed for the Dragon Boat Festival holiday. Looking back at the performance of domestic base metals on June 18, we see: Domestic base metals showed mixed performance, with SHFE zinc up 0.39%, SHFE aluminum up 0.38%, and SHFE nickel edging up. SHFE tin fell 2.03%, SHFE copper fell 0.48%, and SHFE lead fell 0.15%. On Friday night, the ferrous metals market was closed for the Dragon Boat Festival holiday. Looking back at ferrous metals on June 18: Stainless steel rose 0.07%, iron ore fell 1.13%, rebar fell 0.95%. Hot-rolled coil fell 0.77%. The most-traded coking coal futures contract fell 5.78%, and the most-traded coke contract fell 3%. On Friday night in the overseas metals market, LME base metals mostly fell. LME copper fell 0.5%. LME aluminum rose 0.12%, LME lead fell 1.32%. LME zinc fell 2.05%. LME tin rose 0.19%. LME nickel fell 1.41%. On Friday night in precious metals : COMEX gold fell 1.72%, posting a third consecutive weekly decline, with a weekly drop of 1.55%; COMEX silver fell 2.12%, marking its sixth consecutive weekly decline, with a weekly drop of 4.51%. On Friday night, the most-traded SHFE gold contract was closed; SHFE gold posted a weekly gain, up 4.11% for the week. The most-traded SHFE silver contract was closed; SHFE silver posted a weekly gain, up 5.25% for the week. As it no longer expects the US Fed to cut interest rates in 2026, Goldman Sachs lowered its year-end gold price forecast by $500. Analysts Lina Thomas and Daan Struyven wrote in a note: "We revised down our December gold price target to $4,900/oz (previous target $5,400), implying gold is still expected to rise in H2, though by less than previously expected. Our view on gold remains structurally constructive but tactically cautious, with near-term downside risks and medium-term upside risks." The analysts said the downgrade was driven by Goldman Sachs economists pushing back the first US rate cut to June and December next year, from prior expectations of December 2026 and March 2027, and also by a lower forecast for gold ETF inflows. Additionally, they added that concerns over central bank independence may be limited given the "unexpectedly hawkish" first Fed meeting under Chair Warsh. (Jinshi) As of 7:47 a.m. June 20, closing prices from Friday night: Macro front China side: [NFRA: Promote the construction of AI application infrastructure in the financial industry] The National Financial Regulatory Administration (NFRA) issued guidance on the development and application of safe AI in the banking and insurance sectors. It proposes to promote the construction of an AI application ecosystem in the financial sector. Advance the development of AI application infrastructure in the financial industry and promote the sharing and reuse of AI application outcomes across the sector. Encourage large financial institutions to play an exemplary role and export AI technologies and management experience to small and medium-sized financial institutions. Support small and medium-sized financial institutions in strengthening collaboration to jointly drive the implementation of application scenarios. Encourage closer synergy with the AI industry, using financial applications to foster industrial innovation and development, and leveraging industrial achievements to improve the quality and efficiency of financial applications. [Box office on the first day of the 2026 Dragon Boat Festival holiday surpasses 100 million yuan, number of new releases hits a near-decade high for the same period] According to data from online platforms, as of now, the box office (including pre-sales) on the first day of the 2026 Dragon Boat Festival holiday has exceeded 100 million yuan. The film offerings during the 2026 Dragon Boat Festival are diverse and rich in genre. Over the short three-day holiday, nearly 20 films were released in concentrated fashion, setting a new high for the same period in nearly a decade. The film genres cover sci-fi, youth, animation, and more, addressing the viewing needs of audiences across almost all age groups. (CCTV News) [Guangdong: Accelerate the construction of the national integrated computing power network hub in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area and make forward-looking plans for 6G technology and satellite internet] The General Office of the People's Government of Guangdong Province issued a notice on the Implementation Plan for Promoting the Expansion and Quality Improvement of the Service Sector in Guangdong Province. It mentions that the deployment of 5G-A networks and pilot projects for 10G optical networks will be advanced in an orderly manner. 50G-PON ports will be deployed on a large scale in key scenarios such as factories and industrial parks. The upgrading and renovation of aging communication facilities will be further promoted, with FTTR whole-home optical network coverage to be achieved simultaneously in both new and older residential communities. Mobile network coverage along major transportation routes and hubs will be improved, and initiatives to increase broadband speeds and benefit the public will be implemented, driving an overall leap in broadband user download rates. The construction of the national integrated computing power network hub in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area will be accelerated, the spatial layout of data centers optimized, edge computing vigorously developed, and a “cloud-edge-device” collaborative computing power service system created. Forward-looking plans will be made for 6G technology and satellite internet, a Guangdong 6G Industry Innovation and Development Alliance will be established, and ministerial-provincial 6G collaborative pilot projects will be promoted, with a focus on creating application benchmarks for distinctive scenarios such as embodied AI, intelligent connected vehicles, the low-altitude economy, and the marine economy. [Guangdong: Support the Guangzhou Futures Exchange in enriching its futures product system and improving the full futures industry chain] The General Office of the People's Government of Guangdong Province issued a notice on the Implementation Plan for Promoting the Expansion and Quality Improvement of the Service Sector in Guangdong Province. It mentions that efforts will be made to cultivate and strengthen high-quality investment banks and investment institutions, encourage leading securities firms and fund management companies to enhance their service capabilities, compliance management capabilities, and market leadership, attract well-known domestic and international asset management institutions to establish corporate headquarters or regional headquarters in Guangdong, and encourage the development of the investment advisory business. Leverage the comprehensive service functions of the capital market, guide and support cities in improving the reserve pools of IPO-ready enterprises and M&A and restructuring projects, collaborate with exchanges, brokerages and other institutions to thoroughly deliver full-cycle counseling services for pre-IPO enterprises, optimize approval processes for land use rights, property, stock transfers involved in M&A and restructuring of publicly listed firms, and encourage enterprises to expand the issuance scale of sci-tech bonds, green bonds, and asset securitization products. (From Wallstreetcn APP) [Weifang: Expand the implementation of 2026 consumer goods trade-in category subsidy activities] The Weifang Municipal Bureau of Commerce issued an announcement on expanding the implementation of Weifang's 2026 consumer goods trade-in category subsidy activities. According to the province-wide unified categories and standards, subsidies will be provided to individual consumers purchasing range hoods, household gas stoves (including integrated stoves), water purifiers, dishwashers, hearing aids, robot vacuums (including floor scrubbers), walking-assist exoskeleton robots, smart toilets, and other products. Individual consumers purchasing the above subsidized category products within Weifang will receive a subsidy of 15% of the final selling price after deducting discounts at all stages. Each person is limited to one subsidized item per category, with a maximum subsidy of 1,500 yuan per item, and the delivery place of the subsidized products must be within the administrative area of Weifang. (Published by Weifang) [Shanghai International Energy Exchange Issues Notice on Launch of Market Orders and Order Quantities for Related Trading Instructions] According to the Shanghai International Energy Exchange, market orders will be launched starting July 6, 2026 (i.e., the continuous trading session on the evening of July 3, 2026). Market orders are applicable to all listed futures and options products. For limit orders, the minimum order quantity per order is 1 lot, and the maximum order quantity per order is 500 lots for futures products and 100 lots for options products. For market orders, the minimum order quantity per order is 1 lot, and the maximum order quantity per order is 60 lots for futures products and 30 lots for options products. For settlement price trading orders, the minimum order quantity per order is 1 lot, and the maximum order quantity per order is 500 lots. Dollar aspects: Overnight last Friday, the US dollar index fell 0.06% to 100.76, hitting a high of 101.13 and a low of 100.69 during the session. On the weekly chart: the US dollar index rose for the week, up 0.97% for the week. Market pricing showed that bets on Fed rate hikes increased, with a 25-basis-point rate hike in September fully priced in. Data showed that foreign exchange traders, including hedge funds, were buying large amounts of options, betting that the dollar would strengthen further after the Fed sends a hawkish signal this week and reinforces US rate hike expectations. According to traders, leveraged funds started buying dollar call options on Wednesday, which would increase in value if the dollar appreciates. That demand extended into Thursday as investors digested the new Fed Chairman Warsh's anti-inflation remarks. Bank of America’s head of Americas FX options, Tobias Jungmann, said: “We’re seeing massive dollar call buying, concentrated mainly in G-10 currencies. Given how low implied volatility is currently, building long dollar positions via options looks very attractive.” James Swindell, senior FX options trader at Barclays in London, said: “We’re seeing broad-based, notable demand for dollar calls, especially in EUR/USD and GBP/USD.” (Jin10 Data APP) According to CME’s “FedWatch”: The probability that the Fed keeps rates unchanged in July is 60.4%, while the probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point hike stands at 39.6%. By the September meeting, the probability of unchanged rates is 31.2%, with a 49.6% chance of a cumulative 25bp hike and a 19.1% chance of a cumulative 50bp hike. (Jin10 Data APP) On other currencies: ECB Chief Economist Philip Lane said on Thursday that eurozone inflation will remain elevated despite the recent pullback in energy prices. The ECB raised rates last week for the first time in nearly three years, responding to the surge in energy prices since the Middle East conflict erupted in late February. However, oil and natural gas prices subsequently tumbled after Iran and the US announced a peace deal. Lane said the ECB has no doubts about the correctness of the rate-hike decision and still expects inflation to stay above the 2% target for a prolonged period. “We think food prices will rise, and prices of goods and services will rise too. Even in a milder scenario where oil prices pull back, the rate hike was justified,” he said. Separately, ECB Governing Council member Wunsch said: If we see rising services inflation, we could consider another 25bp rate hike as insurance. If the data are ambiguous, I see no need to rush into action. (Jin10 Data) [Bank of England keeps rates on hold in a 7-2 vote, says it will watch Middle East situation closely] The BoE kept the interest rate at 3.75%, calling the recent drop in oil prices “encouraging,” though two policymakers voted for an immediate 25bp hike, worried about persistent inflation. External member Megan Greene joined Chief Economist Huw Pill—April’s sole dissenter—in voting to lift rates to 4% immediately, arguing that the price outlook remains uncertain despite the recent US-Iran ceasefire deal. (From Wall Street CN APP) On the macro front: This week will see the release of China’s one-year loan prime rate as of June 22, Canada’s May CPI month-on-month rate, the eurozone’s June flash consumer confidence index, France’s June flash manufacturing PMI, Germany’s June flash manufacturing PMI, the eurozone’s June flash manufacturing PMI, the UK’s June flash manufacturing PMI, the UK’s June flash services PMI, the UK’s June CBI industrial orders balance, the US ADP employment change for the week ending June 6, the US June S&P Global flash manufacturing PMI, the US June S&P Global flash services PMI, the US June Richmond Fed manufacturing index, Australia’s May unadjusted CPI year-on-year rate, Germany’s June IFO business climate index, Switzerland’s June ZEW investor sentiment index, the US Q1 current account, US May new home sales annualized, Australia’s May seasonally adjusted unemployment rate, Germany’s July GfK consumer confidence index, US initial jobless claims for the week ending June 20, the US May core PCE price index year-on-year rate, the US May personal spending month-on-month rate, the final Q1 US real GDP annualized quarter-on-quarter rate, the preliminary Q1 US real personal consumption expenditures quarter-on-quarter rate, the final Q1 US real personal consumption expenditures quarter-on-quarter rate, the final Q1 US core PCE price index annualized quarter-on-quarter rate, the US May core PCE price index month-on-month rate, the US May durable goods orders month-on-month rate, the US June University of Michigan consumer sentiment final index, and the US June one-year inflation expectations final rate. Additionally, this week, attention should also be paid to: European Central Bank President Lagarde Christine speaks at the EU Parliament; Bank of Canada Governor Macklem Tiff delivers remarks; the 17th Summer Davos Forum takes place in Dalian from June 23 to 25; the Bank of Japan releases the summary of opinions from its June monetary policy meeting; Nvidia holds its annual general meeting of shareholders; the Bank of Canada publishes its monetary policy meeting minutes; the US Fed releases the results of its annual bank stress test; Bank of Japan Governor Ueda Kazuo attends a central bank lecture event hosted by the International Monetary Fund (IMF); 300 billion yuan of 1-year medium-term lending facility (MLF) and 248 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repos mature today; FOMC permanent voting member and New York Fed President Williams John speaks; 2027 FOMC voting member and Chicago Fed President Goolsbee Austan speaks; 2026 FOMC voting member and Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari Neel speaks. Crude Oil: Both crude oil futures rose in overnight trading last Friday: WTI rose 0.91%, Brent rose 0.47%. Weekly: WTI futures fell for two consecutive weeks, down 9.83% for the week; Brent fell for two straight weeks, down 8.53%. International crude oil futures opened lower on Friday, then struggled to rebound and turned lower several times during the session, hitting a low for the day after reports of a ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah. As news emerged that both sides continued to attack each other after the ceasefire, prices turned higher again in late European trading. Brent struggled around the $80 level throughout the day. (Wall Street View) Iran's Foreign Ministry stated: Negotiations on a permanent deal with the US will only begin after the war in Lebanon ends permanently, the US fully lifts blockades, the US grants waivers for Iranian oil, and Iran's frozen assets are released. (Jin10 Data APP) Iran is shipping out a large volume of oil that was previously unable to be exported due to the US blockade, which could be welcome news for Tehran after it signed a temporary peace agreement with Washington on Wednesday. Shipping data compiled by Bloomberg showed that 11 tankers sailed from Iran's Chabahar port in the Gulf of Oman this week, carrying a total of 20 million barrels of crude oil. Previously, the US military had blocked these tankers from entering the Indian Ocean, a move aimed at limiting Tehran's access to petrodollars. (Jin10 Data APP) In addition, Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) data showed that for the week ended June 16, speculative net long positions in Brent crude oil futures decreased by 94,763 contracts to 114,128 contracts. (Jin10 Data APP) Additionally, due to the contract rollover, the floor trading of NYMEX New York crude oil July futures will close at 2:30 on June 23, and electronic trading will close at 5:00 a.m. Please pay attention to the exchange's expiration and rollover notices to manage risks. Moreover, the expiration of U.S. oil contracts on some trading platforms is usually one day earlier than the official NYMEX date, so please stay alert.

Asian stainless steel prices held stable for a third consecutive week, with Chinese Taiwan's export quotes unchanged and Chinese export offers rebounding to steady levels after a brief dip earlier in the month. Raw material trends diverged, LME nickel prices softened while Indonesian NPI gained ground; Chinese domestic ferronickel stabilized and stainless steel futures posted a weekly gain. Trading activity remains quiet during the traditional off-season, though consumption levels are running ahead of the same period last year. A recent Middle East peace accord helped nickel prices bounce back, pointing to a firm short-term market trend.

Nickel prices showed a pattern of stopping falling and stabilizing with a fluctuating rebound this week. At the start of the week, the US-Iran peace agreement became the key variable reversing market sentiment; as the geopolitical risk premium rapidly faded, market risk appetite recovered significantly. Meanwhile, the US Fed kept rates unchanged at its June FOMC meeting, in line with market expectations. Driven by the macro sentiment recovery, SHFE and LME nickel prices rose from earlier lows amid fluctuations. The most-traded SHFE nickel contract rebounded from the 135,000 yuan/mt area to near 137,000 yuan/mt, and LME nickel rallied in tandem to above $17,900/mt. This week, the SMM #1 refined nickel average price was 136,112 yuan/mt, up 450 yuan/mt WoW. Jinchuan nickel premiums stabilized at 1,300–1,500 yuan/mt, while mainstream electrodeposited nickel discounts were in the -500 to -400 yuan/mt range. Spot trading activity weakened from the previous week, as the futures price rebound and the completion of purchasing by most end-users left downstream parties largely on the sidelines. On the macro front, the most positive change this week came from the breakthrough in US-Iran relations. The US and Iran reached a peace agreement, and the Strait of Hormuz is expected to fully resume navigation in the near term, a geopolitical positive that boosted risk appetite. Some media outlets reported that the agreement would be officially signed on June 19, after which the Strait of Hormuz would fully reopen. On June 18 Beijing time, the US Fed kept the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 3.50%–3.75%, marking the fourth consecutive pause in rate cuts. The Fed held its FOMC meeting on June 16-17, and the market had previously priced in a 98.5% probability of an unchanged rate. However, the hawkish signals from this meeting cannot be ignored. The new chair, Warsh, leaned hawkish, and the dot plot showed that half of officials expected at least one rate hike this year. Inventory side, Shanghai Bonded Zone inventory was around 2,700 mt this week, building up by 1,000 mt WoW. China’s social inventory stood at about 126,000 mt, with a slight destocking of roughly 86 mt WoW. Following the US-Iran agreement, expectations of sulfur supply recovery intensified, weakening the cost-support logic. With refined nickel inventories continuing to build up both in and outside China, upside resistance for nickel prices is clear. The most-traded SHFE nickel contract is expected to trade in a core range of 130,000–138,000 yuan/mt.

SMM, June 18: Metals markets: As of midday close, base metals on the domestic market were nearly all down. SHFE copper fell 0.66%, SHFE aluminum fell 0.13%. SHFE lead fell 0.27%. SHFE zinc rose 0.14%. SHFE tin fell 2.46%. SHFE nickel fell 0.38%. In addition, the most-traded cast aluminum futures edged lower, the most-traded alumina futures fell 0.28%. The most-traded lithium carbonate futures fell 4.88%. The most-traded silicon metal futures fell 0.98%. The most-traded polysilicon futures fell 0.24%. Ferrous metals all fell. Iron ore fell 1.26%, rebar fell 1.04%, HRC fell 0.89%, and stainless steel fell 0.66%. Coking coal and coke: the most-traded coking coal futures contract fell 6.26%, and the most-traded coke futures contract fell 4.21%. On the overseas base metals front, as of 11:45, LME metals fell across the board. LME copper fell 1.06%, LME aluminum and LME lead fell nearly 1%. LME zinc fell 1.12%, LME tin fell 2.7%. LME nickel fell 1.08%. Precious metals: as of 11:45, COMEX gold fell 0.94%, and COMEX silver fell 2.17%. Domestic precious metals: the most-traded SHFE gold futures fell 0.36%, and the most-traded SHFE silver futures fell 1.85%. In addition, as of midday close, the most-traded platinum futures fell 2.63%, and the most-traded palladium futures fell 1.88%. As of the midday close, the most-traded container shipping freight futures (European route) rose 1.13% to 3,742.5 points. As of June 18, 11:45, selected futures midday quotes: Spot and fundamentals Zinc: The mainstream brand 0# zinc traded around 24,680-24,790 yuan/mt in the Ningbo market. Ningbo regular brands were quoted at a discount of 20 yuan/mt against the 2607 contract, and at a premium of 30 yuan/mt against Shanghai spot cargoes. The mainstream in Ningbo was quoted against the 2607 contract... Macro front Domestic side: [Five Departments: Launch of 2026 NEV Promotion Campaign in Rural Areas] The General Offices (Comprehensive Departments) of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the Ministry of Commerce and three other departments are launching the 2026 NEV promotion campaign in rural areas, deepening the auto trade-in program in villages. Within the NEV rural promotion campaign, a trade-in special section will be set up to publicize and promote subsidy policies, and provide "one-stop" services such as old vehicle inspection, evaluation and recycling, and assistance with subsidy applications, to further increase policy awareness and coverage and facilitate rural consumers' participation and access to subsidies. Rural consumers who trade in old cars for NEVs can apply for auto trade-in subsidies according to policy requirements, without any limit on the number of subsidy qualifications. [NDRC: to Strengthen Coordinated Planning of Computing Power Network, New-Type Power Grid, and New-Generation Communication Network During 15th Five-Year Plan Period] Li Chao, Deputy Director of the Policy Research Office and Spokesperson of the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), said at a press conference that during the 15th Five-Year Plan period, greater emphasis will be placed on supply-demand matching and coordinated planning and construction of the computing power network, new-type power grid, and new-generation communication network. On the "hard investment" front, more effective computing-electricity synergy models will be explored to strengthen computing with electricity and promote electricity with computing; computing-network integration innovation will be enhanced, and direct connection lines between national hubs will be appropriately expanded to further reduce network transmission latency. On the "soft development" front, the monitoring and market-based scheduling of computing resources will be strengthened, and the construction of a nationwide integrated computing power network that is interconnected, universally accessible and easy to use, green, and secure will be accelerated. (from Wallstreetcn APP) [Shanghai Clearing House and CFETS to Launch Optimized Foreign Currency Repo Service from June 22] The Interbank Market Clearing House Co., Ltd. (Shanghai Clearing House) and the China Foreign Exchange Trade System (CFETS) issued a notice stating that to further optimize foreign currency repo trading and clearing services and meet market participants' needs for collateral management and diversified settlement methods, Shanghai Clearing House and CFETS will launch an optimized foreign currency repo service on June 22, 2026. During the term of a foreign currency pledged repo transaction, both parties may initiate substitution of pledged bonds for trades not yet due for settlement through the Shanghai Clearing House integrated business system or the CFETS foreign exchange trading system, subject to counterparty confirmation. Prior to the settlement date, both parties may initiate cash settlement through the Shanghai Clearing House integrated business system, and Shanghai Clearing House will complete the buyout repo maturity settlement based on the cash settlement instruction. The specific launch arrangements by CFETS will be announced separately. (from Wallstreetcn APP) [PBOC Reverse Repos Net Inject 59.5 Billion Yuan Today] The PBOC conducted 248 billion yuan seven-day reverse repo operations in the open market at an interest rate of 1.40%, unchanged from the previous day. Today, 188.5 billion yuan of reverse repos matured. US dollar: As of 11:45, the US dollar index fell 0.15% to 100.24. US Fed officials hinted on Wednesday that they may need to raise interest rates soon rather than cut them, a sharp shift in thinking amid rapidly climbing inflation. Evercore ISI analyst Krishna Guha stated that the pullback in energy prices may offer some relief in the coming months. However, he cautioned that the interest rate outlook has already decoupled from oil prices, which indicates deeper uncertainty over whether underlying inflation will cool enough to spare the US Fed from having to hike rates eventually. Beyond energy, Guha noted, two pressures remain: the ongoing pass-through from tariffs and cost spillovers from the investment boom in AI infrastructure. Claudia Sahm, chief economist at New Century Advisors and former Fed economist, said conditions that would normally prompt the Fed to respond to supply-driven inflation—namely an overheated labour market or unanchored inflation expectations—have yet to be seen. But she acknowledged that the case for action is building. “I can understand the view that the Fed should be ready to step in and hike if things worsen,” she said, adding that the Fed could move more swiftly than during the pandemic-era inflation surge because “they are already having that debate now.” According to CME FedWatch, the probability of the US Fed holding rates steady through July stands at 64.0% (versus 91.0% before the decision), with a 35.1% chance of a cumulative 25bp hike (versus 8.9%) and a 1% chance of a cumulative 50bp hike (versus 0%). For the year-end, the probability of unchanged rates is 14.2% (versus 38.2%), while the odds of cumulative hikes stand at 25bp (36.4%, versus 43.0%), 50bp (33.8%, versus 16.2%), 75bp (13.5%, versus 2.4%), and 100bp (2.1%, versus 0.1%). Citi expects the Fed to deliver 25bp rate cuts in October 2026, December 2026, and January 2027, shifting from its previous forecast of cuts in September, October, and December this year. Goldman Sachs Vice Chairman and former Dallas Fed President Kaplan said the Fed may need to raise rates as early as September if inflation remains persistently elevated. “If the inflation data do not cool between now and September, it would be wise for the Fed to act in September or in the autumn. That would be the more prudent course,” Kaplan said. Markets turned hawkish after Fed Chairman Walsh signalled that the central bank remains focused on fighting inflation. Traders dumped short-term Treasuries, pushing some yields higher. Walsh’s remarks were reinforced by the personal projections of Fed members, half of whom pencilled in rate hikes by the end of 2026. Kaplan stated that if inflation remains stubborn, it indicates that monetary policy is still too loose. He also pointed out, “Fed policy actions are rarely one-offs; rate hikes often come in series of two or three. So I think if you’re going to act in September, you need to be prepared. There may be one or two more.” (Jin10 Data APP) Data Releases: Today will see the release of US initial jobless claims for the week ending June 13, the US June Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index, the US May Conference Board leading index month-on-month change, Switzerland’s May trade balance, the Swiss National Bank policy rate as of June 18, the UK ILO unemployment rate for the three months to April, the UK May unemployment rate, the UK May claimant count change, the UK Bank of England rate decision as of June 18, and the eurozone April seasonally adjusted current account, among other data. Additionally, attention should be paid to: China’s refined oil products will open a new round of price adjustment window. The Fed’s FOMC will release its interest rate decision and summary of economic projections, Fed Chairman Warsh will hold a monetary policy press conference, the Swiss National Bank will announce its rate decision, and the Bank of England will release its rate decision and meeting minutes. It is worth noting that on June 18, China’s SGE, SHFE, ZCE, and DCE will have no night session trading due to the eve of the Dragon Boat Festival. On June 19, the NYSE will be closed for Juneteenth. CME Group’s precious metals, energy, forex, equity indexes, and US Treasury futures contracts trading will close early at 01:00 Beijing time on June 20 for the Juneteenth holiday, while ICE’s Brent crude oil futures contract trading will close early at 01:30 Beijing time on June 20 for the Juneteenth holiday. Crude Oil: As of 11:45, oil prices in both markets fell, with WTI down 1.82% and Brent down 1.48%. Trump signed a memorandum of understanding with Iran at the Palace of Versailles in France on Wednesday, declaring an end to the war and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. A US official stated that the agreement had officially taken effect, but it remained unclear whether Iran had immediately taken steps to fully reopen the strait. "Trump's signing of the MOU after the G7 meeting is another important step in the process of reopening the Strait of Hormuz," said Rajeev De Mello, Global Macro Portfolio Manager at Gama Asset Management, "This will further compress energy risk premiums, ease inflation concerns, and provide support for bond and equity markets after the Fed's initial reaction." (Wall Street CN) An Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson stated: Iran must be able to sell its oil smoothly, with no obstacles in transportation and insurance, and must receive the proceeds from oil sales. Jinshi Data APP) According to the latest data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), U.S. EIA crude oil inventories fell by 8.26 million barrels last week, compared with estimates of a 5.2 million barrel decline by Bloomberg users and a 3.6918 million barrel draw by analysts, following a 7.227 million barrel drop the prior week. Inventories at the Cushing hub in Oklahoma have declined for eight consecutive weeks to around 20 million barrels, a level that most traders consider the operational minimum. The Strategic Petroleum Reserve also fell this week to about 340 million barrels, the lowest since 1983. (Wallstreetcn) Spot market overview: ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ►

LME nickel futures rose for a fourth consecutive session, rebounding toward US$18,000/ton. Growing expectations of a Middle East peace accord pushed oil prices to a three-month low, easing global inflation concerns and weakening the US dollar, lifting nickel to a weekly high. Fed rate hold expectations for this month added further support, paring some of June's earlier losses. LME nickel inventories rose 942 tons to around 27.5mt. However, sluggish seasonal demand and elevated stockpiles exceeding 270,000 tons cap near-term upside, pointing to a volatile, range-bound outlook in the short term.

SMM, June 17: In the metals market: As of the midday close, base metals on the domestic market showed mixed performance. SHFE copper edged up 0.33%, SHFE aluminum edged up 0.17%, SHFE lead increased 1.04%, SHFE zinc fell 0.48%, SHFE tin fell 0.33%, and SHFE nickel fell 0.22%. In addition, the most-traded foundry aluminum futures contract rose 0.58%, the most-traded alumina contract fell 0.1%, the most-traded lithium carbonate contract rose 1.54%, the most-traded silicon metal contract edged up, and the most-traded polysilicon futures contract fell 1.68%. Ferrous metals mostly fell, with iron ore down 1.89%, rebar down 0.38%, HRC down 0.3%, and stainless steel up 0.66%. In coking coal and coke: the most-traded coking coal contract fell 0.48%, and the most-traded coke contract fell 0.95%. For base metals on the overseas market, as of 11:39, LME metals showed mixed performance. LME copper and LME nickel edged up, LME aluminum rose 0.53%, LME lead fell 0.1%, LME zinc rose 0.13%, and LME tin rose 0.27%. In precious metals, as of 11:39, COMEX gold fell 0.08%, and COMEX silver rose 0.39%. On the domestic precious metals market: the most-traded SHFE gold contract fell 0.26%, and the most-traded SHFE silver contract fell 0.27%. In addition, as of the midday close, the most-traded platinum futures contract rose 1.59%, and the most-traded palladium futures contract edged up. As of the midday close, the most-traded container shipping index futures contract fell 2.95% to 3,697.5 points. Selected futures midday quotes as of 11:39 on June 17: Spot and Fundamentals Copper: Today, spot #1 copper cathode in Guangdong against the front-month contract: high-quality copper was quoted at 210 yuan/mt, unchanged from the previous trading day; standard-quality copper was quoted at a premium of 150 yuan/mt, unchanged from the previous trading day; SX-EW copper was quoted at a premium of 90 yuan/mt, unchanged from the previous trading day. The average price of Guangdong #1 copper cathode was 105,500 yuan/mt, up 565 yuan/mt from the previous trading day, and the average price for SX-EW copper was 105,410 yuan/mt, up 565 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Spot market: Guangdong inventory declined again today after two consecutive days of increases, mainly due to fewer arrivals and more shipments... Macro Front China: [NFRA: Promote the flow of financial resources toward emerging and future industries] Ding Xiangqun, head of the National Financial Regulatory Administration (NFRA), stated that serving the real economy is the foundation of finance. It is necessary to optimize the supply structure of funds, deliver on the five priority areas of finance, and focus on promoting the development of new quality productive forces. The country should continuously improve full-cycle tech-finance service systems, strengthen financing support and insurance guarantees, and promote the flow of financial resources toward emerging and future industries. Efficiently support the strategy of expanding domestic demand. Financial regulatory authorities should guide financial institutions to deeply engage in fiscal-financial coordination to boost domestic demand, help implement the special campaign to invigorate consumption and the action to expand capacity and improve quality in the service sector, and strengthen financial services for major projects under the 15th Five-Year Plan. Enhance financial support for vulnerable areas. Promote a substantial improvement in quality and reasonable growth in volume for loans to small and micro enterprises. Develop tailored inclusive financial products for new employment groups, namely the "two drivers and two delivery workers"—truck drivers, ride-hailing drivers, couriers, and food delivery workers. Continuously improve the level of financial services for disaster prevention, mitigation, and relief, and fortify the line of defense for public safety. (CCTV News) [PBoC: Improve the short-end interest rate adjustment mechanism] Pan Gongsheng, Governor of the People's Bank of China, stated that the short-end interest rate adjustment mechanism will be improved. Building on the temporary overnight standing repo and reverse repo facilities established in July 2024, the mechanism for using these tools will be refined, and the operating rates will be adjusted to the 7-day reverse repo operating rate plus and minus 25 basis points, narrowing the corridor from 70 basis points to 50 basis points. The toolbox for open market operations will be further enriched, and overnight reverse repo operation instruments will be added when appropriate to better match the short-term liquidity needs of the banking system. (CCTV News) [Full text of the Action Plan for Shanghai International Financial Center to Develop Offshore Finance is released] The People's Bank of China, the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), the National Financial Regulatory Administration, the China Securities Regulatory Commission, the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, and the Shanghai Municipal People's Government jointly issued the Action Plan for Shanghai International Financial Center to Develop Offshore Finance. It mentions that by the end of 2027, a preliminary institutional framework encompassing business rules, risk management and resolution, and the business environment adapted to offshore financial businesses is expected to be established, with explorations of offshore financial business at the forefront of digitalization to better serve enterprises going global. By the end of 2030, a relatively mature offshore financial institutional and legal framework is expected to gradually take shape, providing secure and reliable financial services for the sustained international investment and trade of Chinese enterprises, conducting tests for the reform of the onshore financial system, and strongly supporting the development of global allocation and risk management functions for RMB assets. By the end of 2035, it is expected to become a strategic hub for high-level coordinated and integrated development of offshore and onshore finance, leading the nation's high-standard financial opening and high-quality development. (From Wallstreetcn APP) [People's Bank of China launches the Foreign Institutional Investor and Central Banks RMB Repo Facility] To support the high-standard opening of China's financial market and facilitate RMB liquidity management for foreign central bank institutions, the People's Bank of China will use the Foreign Institutional Investor and Central Banks RMB Repo (FIMA RMB Repo) facility to provide RMB liquidity to eligible foreign central bank institutions. Overseas central bank-type institutions refer to overseas central banks or monetary authorities, international financial organizations, and sovereign wealth funds. The repo tool can be conducted via pledged repo or outright repo. Eligible repo bonds include Chinese government bonds, PBOC bills, policy financial bonds, and other high-grade RMB bonds approved by the PBOC. Repo terms include 7 days, 1 month, and 3 months. Repo rates are set by adding a spread to the 7-day reverse repo operation rate in the open market. (PBOC) [PBOC Optimizes Temporary Overnight Repo and Reverse Repo Operation Mechanism in the Open Market] To use the temporary overnight repo and reverse repo tools in the open market flexibly and efficiently, the PBOC decided to optimize operating parameters effective immediately, adjusting the operation window to 15:00-15:30 on working days and setting the operation rates at the 7-day reverse repo rate minus 25bp and plus 25bp, respectively. It further clarified the rules for using the tools: when the overnight money market rate (DR001) stays persistently below or above the corresponding tool operation rates, the PBOC will launch the relevant operations based on the needs of primary dealers. (PBOC) [Wu Qing: Social Security, Insurers Net Purchases of A-Shares at 1.3 Trillion Yuan Since New “Nine Guidelines”] At the opening ceremony of the 2026 Lujiazui Forum, Wu Qing, Chairman of the China Securities Regulatory Commission, delivered a keynote speech titled “Further Improving Capital Market Functions to Coordinate Investment and Financing, Better Serving New Quality Productive Forces and High-Quality Economic Development.” He said that over the two-plus years since the release of the new “Nine Guidelines,” the market value of A-shares held by social security funds, insurers, etc. increased by 85%, with net purchases of A-shares reaching 1.3 trillion yuan. Wu Qing stated that efforts should be made to actively expand funding sources, support complementarity between state-backed funds and social capital, guide pension funds and insurance funds to increase equity investments, and promote the further smooth functioning of the “fundraising, investment, management, and exit” cycle. (from Wall Street CN APP) [Zhu Hexin: Higher Convenience for Entities with Sound Operations and Good Credit] Zhu Hexin, Deputy Governor of the PBOC and Administrator of the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, said at the 2026 Lujiazui Forum that the next step would be to shift from convenience for individual business items to convenience for business entities, granting higher convenience to entities with sound operations and good credit. (from Wall Street CN APP) [PBOC Reverse Repos Net Injection of 261.3 Billion Yuan Today] The PBOC conducted 420.3 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repos today. With 159.0 billion yuan of such reverse repos maturing today, this resulted in a net injection of 261.3 billion yuan. (Jin10 Data APP) 》On June 17, the central parity rate of the RMB against the US dollar in the interbank foreign exchange market was 6.8096 yuan per US dollar. On the dollar side: As of 11:39, the US dollar index was down 0.03% at 99.53. Option traders are increasingly divided on the US Fed’s near-term interest rate path, placing bets that range from rate cuts in coming months to rate hikes of varying magnitudes. Swaps market pricing shows that the Fed is almost certain to hold interest rates steady at its Wednesday meeting, with all eyes turning to Chairman Warsh’s first press conference for clues on future policy. Although the US and Iran are set to formally sign a temporary peace deal, with oil prices already falling to three-month lows and offering some relief from inflationary pressures, the policy outlook remains uncertain. (Jin10 Data APP) The Federal Reserve will conclude its policy meeting in the early hours of Thursday Beijing time, and the market is now focused on a key variable: the dot plot may lack a key dot. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will release its quarterly Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) after the meeting, which includes individual officials’ assessments of the interest rate path for 2026 to 2028 and beyond—the closely watched dot plot. Investors will parse the distribution of dots to gauge the overall bias of officials on the economic outlook and monetary policy. However, most Wall Street Fed watchers expect that new Chairman Warsh Kevin (Warsh Kevin) will not submit his own rate projection dot. He only assumed his post on May 22 and feels he has not yet prepared a full forecast; additionally, he has consistently been critical of the dot plot and the broader forward guidance communication framework. Should Warsh decline to submit a dot, it would break from a practice that has persisted for 14 years since the financial crisis, and could also ruffle feathers among FOMC members who rely on the dot plot to convey policy signals. Yet, this move would also serve as his first step in pushing for fundamental reforms at the Fed. (Jin10 Data APP) According to CNBC, the Federal Reserve will release its latest dot plot on Wednesday, showing officials’ expectations for the interest rate trajectory. However, most Wall Street Fed watchers expect new Fed Chairman Warsh Kevin not to participate, possibly because he feels unprepared or simply because he dislikes the dot plot. Warsh has previously spoken out against dot plots and other forward guidance methods, arguing that they constrain the Fed’s decision-making ability. Should Warsh refuse to provide a dot plot projection, it would run counter to the practice the Fed has followed for roughly 14 years since the financial crisis and could distance him from other Fed officials who support this communication tool. Yet, for Chairman Warsh, who has pledged to fundamentally reform the way the institution operates, this could serve as an effective first step. “In my opinion, he likely does not want to submit a rate forecast.”Bill English, former head of monetary policy at the US Fed and now a professor at Yale University, said, “There may be others on the committee who don’t particularly like the dot plot, and they might be willing to do the same.” According to CME FedWatch, the probability that the Fed would keep interest rates unchanged in June was 99.5%, and the probability of a cumulative 25bp rate cut was 0.5%. The probability that the Fed would keep rates unchanged through July was 92%, with a 7.9% probability of a cumulative 25bp rate hike and a 0% probability of a cumulative 25bp rate cut. In other currencies: Goldman Sachs economist Akira Otani said that the Bank of Japan is very likely to raise interest rates again in January 2027, but there is high uncertainty over the timing of future rate hikes. “With underlying inflation near 2%, even a small change, such as a further modest depreciation of the yen, could significantly increase the risk of inflation exceeding 2%,” the economist noted, “Thus, the probability distribution of the timing of the next rate hike is seen as skewed towards an earlier move.” Otani added that the actual timing of the rate hike would be “significantly influenced by the progress of communication with the government.” (Jin10 Data APP) A senior official at the Reserve Bank of Australia said on Wednesday that as a tense geopolitical environment reshapes financial and economic linkages, Australian institutions need to prepare for a financial system that is more susceptible to shocks. RBA Deputy Governor Brad Jones said, “We have to accept the world as it is, not as we would like it to be, and it is against this backdrop that policymakers are intensifying efforts to ensure the financial system can cope with a more challenging risk environment.” Jones noted that the high level of foreign ownership in Australia’s fixed-income market means the country’s financial system will not be immune to external shocks. Referring to pension funds, he said, “About half of the assets in our superannuation fund industry are invested offshore.” (Jin10 Data APP) Data: Due for release today are the US May retail sales month-over-month rate, US April business inventories month-over-month rate, US May pending home sales index month-over-month rate, UK May CPI month-over-month rate, UK May retail price index month-over-month rate, eurozone May final CPI year-over-year rate, eurozone May final CPI month-over-month rate, and other data. Also in focus: ECB President Lagarde is participating in a summit on the impact of artificial intelligence (AI); the 2026 Lujiazui Forum in China takes place from June 17 to 18. Oil: As of 11:39, both oil benchmarks extended their losses from the previous four trading sessions, with WTI down 0.32% and Brent down 0.32%. Trump stated that the Strait of Hormuz will reopen this Friday, with both US and Iranian sides expected to sign a preliminary agreement memorandum in Switzerland at that time, though the full text of the agreement has not yet been released. The preliminary agreement between the US and Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz triggered wild swings in the global oil market. According to the Wall Street Journal, people familiar with the matter said that under the agreement, the US will allow Iran to immediately resume oil and fuel export sales, providing Tehran with an upfront economic incentive to help de-escalate the conflict. Provisions in the deal exempting oil sales from sanctions will take effect immediately upon the signing of the agreement this week. Meanwhile, essential services supporting oil sales, such as banking, transportation, and insurance, will also be exempted to ensure smooth execution of relevant transactions. United Against Nuclear Iran stated that a supertanker loaded with Iranian crude oil had departed from Chabahar port, crossed the US blockade, and sailed out of the Gulf of Oman on Tuesday with its transponder turned on. This marks the first such occurrence since the US imposed a maritime blockade in April this year. A senior US official said on Tuesday that while Iran will receive upfront sanctions relief for oil sales, long-term and sustained sanctions relief will depend on Iran's compliance with US demands, including issues related to the opening of the Strait and its nuclear program. The official added that Iran still will not immediately gain access to tens of billions of dollars frozen outside China. (Jin10 Data APP) Spot Market Overview: ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ►

SMM June 17 news: Metal markets: Overnight, base metals on both domestic and overseas markets broadly rose, with only LME zinc, LME tin, SHFE zinc, and SHFE tin falling. LME zinc led the losses, down 0.64%, while the declines in other metals were small. LME nickel led the gains among base metals on both markets, up 0.79%. SHFE lead rose 0.77%, LME lead rose 0.71%, and other metals saw relatively small gains. The main alumina contract rose 0.73%, while the main cast aluminum contract rose 0.39%. Overnight in ferrous metals, most contracts fell aside from stainless steel. Stainless steel rose 1.16%, iron ore fell 1.04%, and HRC and rebar both fell around 0.3%. Coking coal and coke were mixed, with coking coal up 0.33% and coke down 0.6%. Overnight in precious metals, COMEX gold rose 0.03% and COMEX silver fell 0.08%. Domestically, SHFE gold fell 0.06% and SHFE silver fell 0.07%. Overnight closing prices as of 6:43 am June 17: Macro Front China: [NBS: In May, the industrial added value above designated size grew by 4.5%; the national economy generally operated stably with new and quality improvements] In May, under the strong leadership of the CPC Central Committee with Comrade Xi Jinping at its core, all regions and departments conscientiously implemented the decisions and deployments of the CPC Central Committee and the State Council. We upheld the general principle of pursuing progress while ensuring stability, fully, accurately, and comprehensively implemented the new development philosophy, accelerated the creation of a new development pattern, earnestly implemented more proactive and impactful macro policies, and effectively responded to external shocks and challenges. Production supply grew steadily modestly, employment and prices were generally stable, foreign trade resilience continued to manifest, new growth drivers grew stronger, and the national economy continued its development trend of general stability with new and quality improvements. NBS data showed that in May, the industrial added value of enterprises above the designated size increased by 4.5% YoY in real terms, with the growth rate accelerating by 0.4 percentage points from the previous month. On a MoM basis, the industrial added value of enterprises above the designated size increased by 0.40% in May over the previous month. From January to May, the industrial added value of enterprises above the designated size increased by 5.4% YoY. [NDRC: Standardize local investment promotion activities, and promote fair opening of competitive infrastructure sectors to business entities] On the morning of June 16, Zheng Shanjie, Chairman of the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), chaired a symposium to hear opinions and suggestions on the current economic situation, systematically advancing the construction of the "Six Networks," and expanding effective domestic demand. In the next step, the NDRC will thoroughly implement the decisions and deployments of the CPC Central Committee and the State Council, strengthen the planning and construction of the "Six Networks," enhance multi-network coordinated advancement, make integrated use of various government funds and new-type policy-based financial instruments, strengthen guarantees for factors like land and environmental assessments, persist in balancing quality and efficiency, accelerate transformation and implementation, and promote the formation of more physical workload. We will deeply advance the construction of a unified national market, standardize local investment promotion activities, advance the fair opening of competitive infrastructure sectors to business entities, improve the long-term mechanism for private enterprise participation in major project construction, actively attract social capital to participate in the "Six Networks" construction, and effectively stimulate the vitality of private investment. At the same time, we will deepen multi-level, regular communication and exchanges with private enterprises, strengthen forward-looking and strategic issue research, persist in integrating point-and-area and short-term-and-long-term approaches, strengthen overall coordination, and promote the growth and expansion of the private economy with pragmatic measures. (Jin10 Data APP) [Eight Departments: Aim to exceed 90% for the one-hour multimodal transshipment rate by 2030] Recently, eight departments including the Ministry of Transport jointly issued the "Action Plan for Breaking Bottlenecks in Multimodal Transport (2026-2030)" to accelerate the construction of a modern multimodal transport network. The Action Plan proposes to use approximately five years to upgrade the multimodal transport functions of around 1,000 main freight nodes, achieve a one-hour multimodal transshipment rate exceeding 90%, reach an 80% railway access rate for coastal port multimodal transport zones, and achieve a 100% railway access rate for main ports along the Yangtze River trunk line. At the same time, optimization of container rail-water intermodal security checks, "single-document" systems, and other standards and rules will achieve new breakthroughs. (CCTV News) (Jin10 Data APP) US Dollar: Overnight, the US dollar index fell 0.12% to 99.56%, primarily driven by optimism over a peace agreement between the US and Iran, while the market awaited the US Fed policy meeting results the next day. According to CNBC, the US Fed will release its latest dot plot on Wednesday, showing individual officials' expectations for the interest rate path. However, most Fed watchers on Wall Street expect new Fed Chairman Warsh will not participate, possibly because he feels unready, or simply because he doesn't like the dot plot. Warsh has previously spoken out against the dot plot and other forward-looking guidance methods, arguing they constrain the Fed's decision-making capabilities. If Warsh refuses to submit dot-plot projections, it would go against the Fed's roughly 14-year post-financial crisis practice and could alienate him from other Fed officials who support this communication method. Yet, for Chairman Warsh, who has promised fundamental reforms to how the institution operates, this might be an effective first step. "Given his viewpoint, it seems very possible he wouldn't want to submit rate forecasts," said Bill English, former head of the Fed's Monetary Affairs Division and now a professor at Yale University. "There are probably other committee members who are not crazy about the dot plot, and they would be willing to do that too." (Jin10 Data APP) According to the CME "FedWatch Tool": The probability of the US Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in June is 99.5%, while the probability of a cumulative 25 bps rate cut is 0.5%. The probability of the Fed keeping rates unchanged through July is 92%, the probability of a cumulative 25 bps rate hike is 7.9%, and the probability of a cumulative 25 bps rate cut is 0%. (Jin10 Data APP) Data: Today, the US May retail sales MoM, US April business inventories MoM, US May pending home sales index MoM, UK May CPI MoM, UK May retail price index MoM, Eurozone May final CPI YoY, Eurozone May final CPI MoM, and other data will be released. Additionally, ECB President Lagarde is attending a summit on the impact of artificial intelligence (AI). China's 2026 Lujiazui Forum will be held from June 17 to 18. Crude Oil: Overnight, oil prices on both markets fell together, with WTI oil down 5.11% and Brent oil down 4.61%, recording a four-day losing streak, mainly due to expectations that the Strait of Hormuz would reopen. According to the Wall Street Journal, informed sources said that under the agreement, the US will allow Iran to immediately resume exporting and selling oil and fuel, providing Tehran with a front-loaded economic incentive to de-escalate the conflict. The provisions in the deal waiving sanctions on oil sales will take effect immediately upon the agreement's signing this week. Meanwhile, the necessary services supporting oil sales, such as banking, shipping, and insurance, will also be exempted to ensure related transactions can proceed smoothly. The United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI) group stated that a supertanker carrying Iranian crude oil has left Chabahar Port, crossed the US blockade line, and sailed out of the Gulf of Oman on Tuesday with its vessel positioning system activated. This is the first such occurrence since the US implemented a maritime blockade in April this year. A senior US official said on Tuesday that while Iran will receive upfront sanctions relief on oil sales, long-term and sustained sanctions relief will depend on Iran's compliance with US demands, including issues related to opening the strait and its nuclear program. The official added that Iran still will not immediately gain access to tens of billions of dollars in frozen overseas funds. (Jin10 Data APP) Maritime intelligence company TankerTrackers said in a social media post early on the 17th that the agency verified via satellite imagery on the 15th that at least two very-large crude carriers (VLCCs) belonging to the National Iranian Tanker Company had sailed out of the US Navy blockade line, carrying a total of 3.8 million barrels of Iranian crude oil between them. This marks Iran's first crude oil export in nearly two months. Additionally, the post stated that the Stream, a tanker owned by the National Iranian Tanker Company, is departing from Pakistan's exclusive economic zone. The vessel had previously been stuck in those waters for seven weeks, waiting to return to an Iranian port. (Xinhua News Agency) (Jin10 Data APP) Data from the American Petroleum Institute (API) showed that last week, US API crude inventories fell by 8.33 million barrels, following a decline of 9.119 million barrels the prior week. Last week, API crude inventories at Cushing fell by 1.523 million barrels, compared to a prior decline of 1.125 million barrels. Last week, API product gasoline inventories rose by 2.479 million barrels (prior -1.191 million barrels), and distillate inventories fell by 1.523 million barrels (prior -407,000 barrels). (Wall Street CN)

June 16 (SMM) — Metals market: As of the midday close, base metals on the domestic market mostly rose. SHFE copper fell 0.47%, SHFE aluminum lost 1.69%, SHFE lead gained 0.96%, SHFE zinc added 0.45%, SHFE tin climbed 1.17%, and SHFE nickel edged up 0.27%. In addition, the most-traded bonded aluminum futures contract dropped 1.03%, the most-traded alumina contract fell 0.48%, the most-traded lithium carbonate contract slid 2.4%, the most-traded silicon metal contract lost 1.6%, and the most-traded polysilicon futures contract tumbled 5.01%. Ferrous metals mostly fell. Iron ore dipped 0.2%, rebar declined 0.38%, HRC edged down 0.24%, while stainless steel surged 2.67%. In the coking coal and coke segment, the most-traded coking coal contract fell 0.74%, while the most-traded coke contract rose 0.1%. On the overseas base metals front, as of 11:39, LME metals showed mixed performance. LME copper fell 0.48%, LME aluminum lost 0.71%, LME lead gained 0.18%, LME zinc added 0.14%, LME tin dropped 0.63%, and LME nickel rose 0.34%. In precious metals, as of 11:39, COMEX gold fell 0.21% and COMEX silver lost 0.68%. On the domestic precious metals side, the most-traded SHFE gold contract gained 1.63% and the most-traded SHFE silver contract rose 1.65%. Additionally, as of the midday close, the most-traded platinum futures contract fell 1.44% and the most-traded palladium futures contract lost 1.33%. As of the midday close, the most-traded containerized freight index (European service) futures contract gained 1.42% to 3,834 points. Selected futures midday prices as of 11:39 on June 16: Spot and fundamentals Silver: In the spot market, overall quoted price spreads remained wide today. The consumer market showed overall weakness in mid-to-late June, with the continued rally in silver prices dampening some demand... Macro front China: [National Bureau of Statistics: Value-added of industrial enterprises above designated size grew 4.5% in May; national economy ran generally stable and progressed toward new, higher-quality growth] In May, under the strong leadership of the CPC Central Committee with Comrade Xi Jinping at its core, all regions and departments earnestly implemented the decisions and arrangements of the Central Committee and the State Council. They adhered to the general principle of pursuing progress while maintaining stability, fully and faithfully applied the new development philosophy on all fronts, accelerated the building of a new development paradigm, earnestly carried out more proactive and impactful macro policies, and effectively addressed external shocks and challenges. Production and supply rose steadily, employment and prices remained generally stable, foreign trade continued to demonstrate resilience, new growth drivers grew stronger, and the national economy sustained a development trend of overall stability while progressing toward new, higher-quality growth. NBS data showed that in May, the value-added of industrial enterprises above designated size grew by 4.5% YoY in real terms, with the growth rate accelerating by 0.4 percentage points from the previous month. On a MoM basis, the value-added of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 0.40% in May. From January to May, it grew by 5.4% YoY. [From Scale Expansion to Resilience Allocation 《China Bulk Commodity Development Report》 Released] The China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing today (June 16) released the *China Bulk Commodity Development Report (2026)*. According to the report, China remains one of the most important import markets for bulk commodities globally, with imports of crude oil, iron ore, soybeans and other commodities staying at high levels. In the face of challenges, the bulk commodity market has shown enhanced resilience. The report indicates that China's bulk commodity market from 2025 to 2026 has generally exhibited a fundamental pattern of "macro pressure, market divergence, intensifying external shocks, enhanced trade resilience, and accelerated capacity building." China's bulk commodity trade is shifting from scale expansion to resilience-oriented allocation. In 2025, China's merchandise trade scale maintained relatively strong resilience, and major bulk commodity imports remained at high levels. Among them, imports of crude oil, iron ore, soybeans and other commodities continued to demonstrate the global absorption capacity of the Chinese market. (CCTV News) [PBOC Reverse Repo Net Injection Today of RMB 296.5 Billion] The PBOC today conducted RMB 449.5 billion of 7-day reverse repo operations. As RMB 153 billion of 7-day reverse repo matured today, the net injection reached RMB 296.5 billion for the day. As for the US dollar: As of 11:39, the US dollar index rose 0.02% to 99.69. According to the CME "FedWatch": the probability that the Fed keeps rates unchanged in June is 98.5%, with a 1.5% probability of a cumulative 25 bp rate cut. The probability that the Fed keeps rates unchanged through July is 91.3%, a cumulative 25 bp rate hike is 7.4%, and a cumulative 25 bp rate cut is 1.4%. Falconio Leslie, head of taxable fixed income strategy at UBS Global Wealth Management, said that after the US and Iran announced a deal, oil prices pulled back, the US Treasury market strengthened, and pressure on the Fed to raise rates this year was easing. Falconio Leslie said: "Even before the ceasefire agreement was reached, oil prices had already started to pull back, yet the two-year US Treasury yield continued to rise because the market had priced in a near-100% probability of a rate hike in December.""The current situation is that oil prices are falling, and the market is gradually withdrawing these rate hike expectations. As a result, the two-year US Treasury yield has started to pull back." The newly appointed Fed Chairman Wash will chair his first interest rate decision this week. Against the backdrop of earlier crude oil price surges reigniting inflationary pressures, voices within the FOMC supporting rate hikes this year have been increasing. Falconio said she expects the FOMC to formally drop its easing bias at this week's meeting, making the policy outlook more hawkish. But she still believes the Fed's next move will be an interest rate cut, and it will happen in 2027. US asset management company PGIM holds a fringe view, believing the Fed will hike rates three times this year to curb overheating, and then reverse the hikes in 2027 . The company had previously expected in April that the Fed would cut interest rates this year. PGIM stated that the US economy is "exceptionally strong" and inflation remains persistently high, requiring a new approach. Given this backdrop, and considering that the Fed has failed to achieve its 2% target for five consecutive years, PGIM expects the Fed to hike rates three times this year to bolster its credibility and anchor inflation expectations. PGIM said, "If the rate hikes are framed as 'precautionary' measures to address supply-side inflation and recent long-term Treasury yield fluctuations, then Wash will gain political support." However, PGIM said it expects the Fed "will reverse these hikes relatively quickly, with three rate cuts in 2027 and another in 2028, bringing the terminal rate to 3.375% — below the current rate and possibly close to the neutral rate." (Jin10 Data APP) In other currencies: The Bank of Japan raised its key rate by 25 basis points, lifting its target rate from 0.75% to 1.00%, the highest level in 31 years, in line with market expectations, after standing pat at its previous three meetings. The BOJ raised rates to the highest in 31 years on Tuesday, a long-awaited move signaling its commitment to tackling inflation risks from the Middle East conflict. At the end of the two-day meeting on Tuesday, the board voted 7-1 to raise the short-term policy rate from 0.75% to 1.0%. This marked the first rate hike since last December, bringing the BOJ's policy rate to a level not seen since 1995. BOJ Governor Ueda Kazuo was absent from the meeting and did not vote, as he was hospitalized for medical treatment. An afternoon press conference will be led by another BOJ deputy governor, Uchida Shinichi, and his remarks will be closely watched for how the BOJ will continue to assess the negative economic impact of the Iran war. (Jinshi Data APP) [RBA holds rates steady as expected, but warns rate hikes may not be over] The Reserve Bank of Australia kept the cash rate unchanged at 4.35% on Tuesday, saying the economy is slowing despite tighter financial conditions, but warned it could hike again if needed to control inflation. The RBA said inflation remains high and the central bank will do whatever is necessary to bring it down, "including by raising the cash rate target further if needed." Markets had already priced in a hold, as domestic inflation, consumption, and employment data continued to soften; meanwhile, the Middle East peace deal and moves to reopen the Strait of Hormuz have pushed oil prices lower, reducing inflation risks. The Board said in its statement: "The resolution of the Middle East conflict is still at an early stage, and there remain plausible scenarios where inflation is above, and activity is below, the expectations set out in the May baseline forecasts. It will take some time for global oil supply issues to be resolved, which will continue to put upward pressure on global energy prices and inflation." The unanimous decision was largely in line with expectations, with swap markets pricing in around a 30% chance of an RBA rate hike in August and only 16 basis points of tightening for the full year—equivalent to less than one hike. (Jinshi Data APP) On the data front: Today will bring the US weekly ADP employment change for the week ending May 30, US May housing starts annualized, US May building permits, US May import price index month-over-month, the Reserve Bank of Australia's interest rate decision for June 16, Germany's June ZEW economic sentiment index, the Eurozone's June ZEW economic sentiment index, Japan's central bank target rate for June 16, and other data. Also watch for: The State Council Information Office holds a press conference on national economic performance. The China Academy of Information and Communications Technology holds a seminar to launch the High-Quality Token Service Capability Climbing Plan. The RBA announces its rate decision, and RBA Governor Bullock holds a monetary policy press conference. On the crude oil front: As of 11:39, crude prices in both markets fell, with WTI down 0.09% and Brent down 0.26%. With the Trump administration about to complete the plan to release 172 million barrels from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) to ease the surge in fuel prices triggered by the Iran war, the US emergency crude stockpile has fallen to its lowest level since 1983. According to data released by the US Department of Energy on Monday, the SPR—established after the Arab oil embargo in the early 1970s—has dropped to about 340 million barrels, near its all-time low. If the plan is completed, this will be the second-largest release in the history of the reserve, leaving about 243 million barrels, which is only around a third of its statutory capacity. The dwindling inventory reduces the US's flexibility in responding to future supply disruptions. A Department of Energy spokesperson said the government is managing the reserve in accordance with its intended use, which is to help stabilize the oil market, protect the US from supply disruptions, and make the US more energy-secure. (Jin10 Data App) Morgan Stanley sharply lowered its oil price forecasts for the coming quarters, as a tentative agreement between the US and Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz is expected to restore regional oil production and increase supply. Analysts including Martijn Rats said in a June 15 report that Brent crude is expected to average $90 per barrel in Q3, down from a previous forecast of $100 per barrel, and $80 per barrel in the final three months of the year, a decline of $15 from the earlier estimate. They also noted that the expected timeline for the region's production recovery has been moved forward by one to two weeks. "Many issues still need to be negotiated, and key risks remain, but this is a significant step towards de-escalating the conflict and boosting oil exports through the Strait of Hormuz," they said, adding, "Production is expected to resume gradually from mid-July, with output anticipated to recover to 50% by September, 80% by December, and the remainder early in 2027." (Jin10 Data App) Spot Market Overview: ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ►