[SMM Analysis] This week (April 27-April 30), Yangshan copper premiums B/L weekly average price range was 53.5-71.5 $/mt, QP June, average price $62.5/mt; warrant weekly average price range was 56-72.5 $/mt, QP May, average price $64.25/mt; EQ copper CIF B/L was 22.5-41 $/mt, QP June, average price $31.75/mt.

Recently, the center of copper prices continued to shift upward. The most-traded SHFE copper contract steadily climbed after hitting a periodic low of 91,500 yuan/mt on March 23, 2026, reaching a high of 103,130 yuan/mt as of April 15, representing a gain of 12.71% from low to high, with the latest closing price at 102,090 yuan/mt. The latest LME copper price stood at $13,262.5/mt. The interaction between macro sentiment and fundamentals jointly drove the market to hold up well. This round of copper price strength was not dominated by a single factor, but rather the result of a resonance of multiple factors including geopolitical conflicts, supply constraints, inventory changes, and seasonal consumption patterns. Regarding the core driving logic behind the current copper price strength, SMM will provide a detailed analysis from three dimensions: the contraction of SX-EW copper supply outside China, the macro perspective on the US dollar and geopolitical developments, and China's copper inventories and supply-demand pattern. The details are as follows: （I) Sulphuric Acid Export Restriction Policies Strengthened Expectations for SX-EW Copper Production Cuts, and Supply Contraction Supported Copper Prices Sulphuric acid prices have been rising continuously since March, mainly due to the ongoing escalation of tensions in the Middle East. Shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, which carries approximately 50% of the world's seaborne sulphur volume, has been disrupted, leading to an overall tightening of global sulphur supply. In China's sulphuric acid production, approximately 40% comes from sulphur-based acid production and 40% from smelting acid. China is highly dependent on sulphur imports, and the tightness in raw material supply has provided certain support for domestic sulphuric acid prices. The DRC is the world's second-largest copper-producing country, with production highly dependent on sulphuric acid. According to SMM, producing 1 mt of copper cathode locally requires 2–6 mt of sulphuric acid. Based on an average of 4 mt, annual sulphuric acid consumption is approximately 10 million mt, of which more than half relies on imports from the Middle East. The Middle East is both a critical global energy transportation route and a core hub for sulphur trade. The current US-Iran conflict has lasted 46 days, and local smelter sulphuric acid inventory is at low levels. Coupled with China, as a major global sulphuric acid exporter, imposing export restrictions, ex-China sulphuric acid supply has tightened further. The sulphuric acid shortage has constrained SX-EW copper output to a certain extent, creating expectations of a contraction in global copper cathode supply and providing clear bullish support for copper prices. According to SMM, SX-EW copper production in the DRC and Zambia has been gradually suffering losses recently, especially at some smaller smelters. The originally projected SMM global copper cathode balance surplus for 2026 is expected to slow down YoY. Expectations of copper cathode supply losses have strengthened, and the market is expected to gradually shift from a loose balance to a tight balance. The tightening supply-side expectations are set to provide support for copper prices. II. Easing geopolitical tensions coupled with inflation pullback push the US dollar index lower, providing support for copper prices Earlier, the escalating tensions in the Middle East continued to push up energy prices, increasing inflationary pressures. Expectations for US Fed interest rate cuts cooled somewhat, and the market gradually priced in unchanged interest rates for the full year. Recently, signs of easing emerged in the geopolitical conflict. Trump stated that the US and Iran are expected to hold talks in Pakistan within the next two days. Pakistan called for a 45-day ceasefire extension, and both sides agreed to continue negotiations, with only the time and location yet to be determined. According to sources familiar with the matter, Iran is considering temporarily suspending shipping restrictions in the Strait of Hormuz to create a favorable atmosphere for negotiations, and the US military has no plan to attack Iranian oil tankers. On April 14, Trump publicly stated that the military campaign against Iran was nearing its end, with positive signals being gradually released, The pullback in crude oil prices and the weakening of the US dollar index provided some support for copper prices. Meanwhile, the pullback in oil prices eased inflationary pressures, leaving room for subsequent interest rate cuts, and sentiment improved somewhat. III. Social Inventory Declined for Five Consecutive Weeks; Combined with Peak Consumption Season and Maintenance Cycle, Tight Supply-Demand Conditions Supported Copper Prices After the Lantern Festival, copper prices gradually pulled back, downstream consumption recovered somewhat, and SMM social copper inventories in major regions across China continued to destock from mid-March. Recently, copper prices rebounded somewhat, downstream purchasing became more cautious, and the destocking pace slowed down. As of April 13, SMM social copper inventories in major regions across China had decreased from 578,900 mt on March 9, 2026 to 299,800 mt, maintaining destocking for five consecutive weeks. China is currently entering the traditional peak consumption season. Copper scrap policies still carry certain uncertainties, and the overall operating rate of scrap utilization enterprises remains relatively low, providing some support for copper cathode rod consumption. Meanwhile, global smelters are entering a concentrated maintenance period in Q2, further tightening the supply side. The continued decline in inventory, combined with a tight supply-demand pattern, is providing some support for copper prices. Overall, the macro front and fundamentals are currently forming a degree of resonance, providing relatively positive support for copper prices. From a macro perspective, geopolitical conflicts showed signs of easing, the US dollar index pulled back somewhat, and earlier inflationary pressures were alleviated to some extent. On the fundamentals side, tightening sulphuric acid supply constrained SX-EW copper output outside China, SMM China social inventory continued to decline, and combined with relatively strong domestic fundamentals, the supply-demand pattern showed a tightening trend. However, as copper prices rebounded above 100,000 yuan/mt, downstream acceptance weakened somewhat, and recent purchase willingness also turned slightly cautious. Going forward, it is worth watching whether actual demand performance during the traditional peak season can meet expectations against the backdrop of high copper prices.

According to the investor relations activity record announced by Jintian Holdings on March 19 (March 10-12, 2026): 1. The Company’s 2025 earnings guidance and the reasons for the projected increase. Jintian Holdings replied: In 2025, the company implemented its “dual upgrade in products and clients” strategy, with product applications continuing to deepen in high-end fields; it stepped up expansion among clients outside China, and sales in markets outside China continued to grow; meanwhile, through digitalization initiatives, it improved operational and management efficiency, and the gross margin and profitability of its products improved YoY. The company expected net profit attributable to owners of the parent for 2025 to reach 700 million yuan to 800 million yuan, up 51.50%-73.14% YoY from the same period last year. 2. Progress of the company’s share repurchase. Jintian Holdings replied: From February 3, 2026 to February 28, 2026, the company had cumulatively repurchased 4,942,200 shares through centralized bidding, accounting for 0.29% of its current total share capital, with total funds paid of 56,676,944 yuan (excluding transaction costs). 3. The company’s industry position and competitive advantages. Jintian Holdings replied: The company had focused on the copper processing industry for 39 years and was one of the largest enterprises in China by scale and with the most complete industry chain. In 2024, the company achieved total production of 1.9162 million mt of copper and copper alloy materials, and its total production of copper semis ranked first globally. The company offered a wide range of copper products and could meet clients’ one-stop procurement needs for multiple categories of copper semis, including rods, tubes, plates and strips, and wires. Its copper products had been widely used in NEV, clean energy, communications technology, electrical power and equipment, chips and semiconductors, and other fields. At present, the company had developed a profound cultural heritage and outstanding organizational capability, with a significant market scale position and a global industrial footprint; it possessed leading manufacturing and R&D capabilities; it had built a specialized product matrix and formed a stable base of top-tier industry clients; and it had also established forward-looking green recycling technology barriers, laying a solid foundation for becoming a world-class base for copper products and advanced materials. 4. The capacity and business performance of the company’s rare earth permanent magnet products. Jintian Holdings replied: The company had entered the magnetic materials business in 2001. After more than 20 years of dedicated development, it had become one of the enterprises in China’s peer industry with relatively advanced technology and a well-developed product system. At present, the company had two magnetic material production sites in Ningbo and Baotou. Phase I of the Baotou site had commenced production, and the company’s annual capacity of rare earth permanent magnet materials had increased to 9,000 mt. The company was actively advancing the Phase II project at the Baotou site to further increase capacity to 13,000 mt. At the same time, through its newly established German subsidiary, the company accelerated its international expansion and increased its share in overseas markets. The company was among the first batch of enterprises to obtain a general export license for rare earth permanent magnet products, and it has continued to strengthen and advance export-related business. The company’s rare earth permanent magnet products are widely used in multiple high-end fields, including NEVs, wind power generation, high-efficiency energy-saving motors, robotics, consumer electronics, and medical devices. 5. The Company’s Business Development in the Chip Computing Power Sector. Jintian Co., Ltd. responded: With its outstanding electrical and thermal conductivity, copper has become a core material for advanced AI industry chip interconnects and heat dissipation in computing power facilities, and the transition of copper-based materials toward high value-added products has further accelerated. The company has a solid client base and technical reserves in the chip computing power sector, and it is also among the first companies globally to achieve large-scale supply of copper-based materials to leading enterprises in the above fields. Among them, the company’s high-precision special-shaped oxygen-free copper busbar products have been applied in multiple top-tier GPU cooling solutions of several global first-tier thermal module enterprises. Products independently developed by the company, such as copper heat pipes and liquid-cooling copper pipe & tube, have been supplied in batches for computing power server products of multiple top-tier enterprises. The company will closely monitor and follow market demand in the chip computing power sector, further improve its product portfolio, and enhance the competitive advantages of its products. 6. The Company’s Position Advantages and Business Achievements in the Secondary Copper Sector. Jintian Co., Ltd. responded: The company has continuously innovated new pathways for the green development of copper-based high-tech materials and has become one of the enterprises in China with the largest utilization of secondary copper and the highest comprehensive utilization rate. It is also one of the few companies in the global industry to achieve a closed-loop entire industry chain covering secondary copper recycling, purification, and deep processing. The company’s independently developed low-carbon secondary copper products significantly reduce carbon emissions while ensuring product performance, enabling it to provide downstream clients across the industry chain with high-quality, comprehensive one-stop green solutions for copper semis. In H1 2025, sales of the company’s green, high-end, low-carbon secondary copper products increased 61% YoY. Its product matrix now covers copper strip, copper wire, magnet wire, copper pipe & tube, copper busbar, copper billet, and more, and has been applied in fields such as high-end consumer electronics, the automotive industry, and electrical equipment. Specific applications include laptop cooling modules, mobile phone vibration motors, NEV power battery connections, and AC/DC power supplies. The products have achieved mass production in the products of multiple world-renowned clients, forming a new performance growth driver represented by “green low-carbon secondary copper products.” An investor asked on the investor interaction platform: Have the company’s copper billet products now become core supplies for top-tier enterprises such as DJI Innovation or EHang Intelligent?With the boom in the low-altitude economy’s payload flight market, have the company’s PEEK materials or high-strength copper alloys developed for drone motor bearings and airframe structural components seen explosive growth in orders? On March 19, Jintian Co., Ltd. stated on the investor interaction platform that the company had a solid client base and technical reserves in the low-altitude economy field. Among its products, high-precision free-cutting copper billet, with excellent properties such as high strength and wear resistance, had already been applied in airborne structural components of low-altitude aircraft. The company’s PEEK material products provide high-voltage drive stability technical solutions for the low-altitude economy’s payload flight market, and it had already carried out R&D cooperation with multiple top-tier enterprises in China. The company will closely monitor and follow market demand in the low-altitude economy field, further improve its product portfolio, and enhance its product competitive advantages. For specific related information, please refer to periodic reports. An investor asked on the investor interaction platform: Hello, Board Secretary. Recently, LME copper prices have risen sharply. Under the company’s strictly implemented hedging strategy, did this generate positive gains from closing positions during the reporting period, or was there a slight loss? Approximately how much was the amount? In addition, as the company’s revenue scale expanded, how well did net operating cash flow match net profit in 2025? Was there any cash flow strain caused by prepayments for raw material procurement? On March 19, Jintian Co., Ltd. stated on the investor interaction platform that the company’s copper processing products adopted a pricing model of “raw material prices + processing fee” and carried out hedging operations in strict accordance with the Hedging Management System to reduce the impact of raw material price fluctuations on the company’s net profit. At present, fluctuations in copper prices had a relatively small impact on the company’s operating performance. For specific related information, please refer to periodic reports. On March 18, when responding to investor questions on the interaction platform, Jintian Co., Ltd. stated that the company had continued to expand its technological leadership in high-voltage electromagnetic flat wire and had further advanced cooperation on new energy high-voltage electromagnetic flat wire projects with world-class OEMs and motor suppliers. As of H1 2025, the company had secured 23 new nominations for its 800V high-voltage platform for new energy drive motors, and had already achieved bulk supply for multiple projects, with the shipment share of high-voltage flat wire continuing to increase. For specific related information, please refer to periodic reports. On March 17, when responding to investor questions on the interaction platform, Jintian Co., Ltd. stated that, with its outstanding electrical and thermal conductivity, copper had become a core material for chip interconnection in the advanced AI industry and heat dissipation in computing power facilities. The company had a solid client base and technical reserves in the AI computing power field. Among its products, the company’s high-precision shaped oxygen-free copper busbar products had already been applied in multiple top-tier GPU cooling solutions of several first-tier thermal module enterprises worldwide. The company will closely monitor and follow market demand in the AI computing power sector, further improve its product portfolio, and enhance its competitive edge. For specific information, please refer to the periodic reports. On March 17, Jintian Co., Ltd. said in response to investor questions on an interactive platform that the company continued to expand its technological leadership in the high-voltage electromagnetic flat wire industry, with both the number of designated projects on high-voltage platforms and shipment volume continuing to grow. Among them, the company's 1,000V flat wire products for drive motors have become an industry benchmark as supporting materials for "megawatt flash charging" technology in the NEV sector, while client-related certification for 1,200V flat wire for drive motors was also progressing in an orderly manner. In addition, the company had a solid client base and sound technical reserves in the chip and semiconductor sector. The company will closely monitor and follow market demand in the chip and semiconductor sector, further improve its product portfolio, and enhance its competitive edge. For specific information, please refer to the periodic reports. On March 17, Jintian Co., Ltd. said in response to investor questions on an interactive platform that the company remained committed to advancing its internationalization strategy, and construction of its newly built Thailand production site was progressing smoothly. The company's copper semis products exported outside China had an overall relatively high gross margin. In H1 2025, revenue from its principal operations outside China was up 21.86% YoY and continued to maintain a solid growth trend. The steady growth of business outside China laid a solid foundation for the company to deepen the upgrading of its global product and client mix. For specific information, please refer to the periodic reports. Jintian Co., Ltd.'s 2025 earnings forecast showed that, based on preliminary estimates by its finance department, the company expected net profit attributable to owners of the parent for 2025 to reach 700 million to 800 million yuan, representing an increase of 237.9574 million to 337.9574 million yuan from the same period last year (statutorily disclosed data), up 51.50% to 73.14% YoY. Net profit attributable to owners of the parent excluding non-recurring gains and losses for 2025 was expected to reach 440 million to 528 million yuan, representing an increase of 101.4004 million to 189.4004 million yuan from the same period last year (statutorily disclosed data), up 29.95% to 55.94% YoY. Regarding the main reasons for the expected increase in results for the period, Jintian Co., Ltd. stated: In 2025, the company implemented its "dual upgrade of products and clients" strategy, with product applications in high-end fields continuing to deepen; it stepped up expansion among clients outside China, and sales in markets outside China continued to grow; meanwhile, through digitalization initiatives, it improved operating and management efficiency, and its product gross margin level and profitability improved YoY. On January 23, Jintian Co., Ltd. said in response to investor questions on an interactive platform that Phase I of its Baotou base had been put into operation, and the annual capacity of rare earth permanent magnets had been increased to 9,000 mt. The company is currently actively advancing Phase II of the Baotou base project, with the aim of further increasing capacity to 13,000 mt. The company has a solid client base and technical reserves in the robotics field, and some rare earth permanent magnets have already been applied in the robotics sector. The company will closely monitor and follow market demand in the robotics field, further improve its product portfolio, and enhance its product competitiveness. A performance preview commentary on Jintian Co., Ltd. for 2025 released by Aijian Securities showed that the share repurchase demonstrated confidence in long-term development, while capital structure optimization was advancing steadily. The company’s high-end copper-based materials were being introduced at an accelerated pace to clients outside China in the computing power cooling sector, with sales rising rapidly and profitability improving significantly. 1) In terms of profitability, processing fees for copper busbar used in computing power are relatively high, and product mix upgrades are expected to continue lifting the company’s gross margin level; 2) In terms of shipment progress, in H1 2025, sales of the company’s copper busbar products in the cooling sector increased 72% YoY, and its high-precision profiled oxygen-free copper busbar has entered GPU cooling solutions of multiple global first-tier cooling module enterprises. The company’s copper heat pipes, liquid-cooling copper pipe & tube, and other products have also achieved bulk supply in computing servers of multiple top-tier enterprises. Copper prices fluctuations had a limited impact on the company’s profitability. 1) The company adopts a “copper prices + processing fee” pricing model, with revenue and profit primarily derived from processing fees rather than copper prices themselves. Processing fees are negotiated between the company and clients based on factors such as product specifications and process complexity, and show a certain degree of historical stickiness; 2) The company effectively hedges copper prices through hedging, while fluctuations in upstream raw material prices are mainly borne by downstream customers, resulting in a relatively small impact on the company’s profit; 3) Rapid copper prices fluctuations may affect downstream ordering willingness in phases and lengthen order cycles, but copper application scenarios are characterized by rigid demand, so the impact on total demand is limited, only changing the pace of copper product orders, and the company’s overall operating stability remains strong. The company is actively expanding into the “aluminum as an substitute for copper” direction, with material substitution optimizing the gross profit structure while enhancing its ability to hedge against copper prices fluctuations. 1) On a per-mt basis, the absolute value of processing fees for aluminum products is usually lower than that of copper-based solutions (at the same performance level, processing fees for high-precision aluminum extrusion are about 10,000 yuan/mt, versus about 20,000 yuan/mt for copper semis); however, since the per-mt price of aluminum semis is significantly lower than that of copper, usually about one-fourth of the latter, the material cost base is lower, increasing the share of processing fees in total product value. The corresponding processing fee rate of aluminum-based solutions is about 13–14 pct higher than that of copper-based solutions, providing positive support to the company’s overall gross margin; 2) In terms of supply progress, the company’s electromagnetic flat aluminum wire and aluminum 3D bent busbars for vehicles have entered the certification and mass supply stage, while inner-grooved aluminum pipe & tube for air conditioners has already begun small-batch supply. Risk Warning: Risks of lower-than-expected downstream demand for new energy or capacity release, rising copper prices, and changes in trade policies outside China.

SMM Morning Meeting Minutes: LME copper opened at $12,965/mt overnight, hitting an early high of $13,000/mt before its price center declined and touched a low of $12,783/mt, then maintained a "W" pattern, ultimately closing at $12,855/mt, down 1.42%. Trading volume reached 30,000 lots, an increase of 3,970 lots from the previous session; open interest stood at 324,000 lots, a decrease of 8,112 lots from the previous session, reflecting an overall reduction in long positions. The most-traded SHFE copper 2603 contract opened at 100,430 yuan/mt overnight, touching an early low of 98,550 yuan/mt before its center fluctuated upward to a high of 101,400 yuan/mt, ultimately closing at 101,130 yuan/mt, down 1.34%. Trading volume reached 105,000 lots, a decrease of 181,000 lots from the previous session; open interest stood at 179,000 lots, a decrease of 3,493 lots from the previous session, reflecting an overall reduction in long positions.

》Check SMM metal quotes, data, and market analysis 》Subscribe to view historical price trends of SMM metal spot cargo This week (June 9-13), the weekly average price range of Yangshan copper premiums B/L transactions was US$49.6-62.4/mt, with QP July, and the average price was US$62.4/mt, down US$27.85/mt WoW. The price range of warrants was US$32.8-47.2/mt, with QP June, and the average price was US$40/mt, down US$31.5/mt WoW, QP June. The EQ copper CIF B/L price was US$6.4-18.8/mt, with an average price of US$12.6/mt, down US$27.15/mt WoW, QP July. As of June 13, the SHFE/LME copper price ratio for the SHFE copper 2506 contract was 8.1659, with an import profit margin of around -820 yuan/mt. As of Friday, LME copper 3M-Jun was in backwardation of US$83.51/mt; the spread between the June date and July date swap fees was approximately US$40.11/mt backwardation. Currently, the firm offer price for high-quality ER copper warrants is US$47/mt, while the mainstream pyrometallurgy and domestic warrants are priced at US$30-40/mt. SX-EW spot cargo is hard to find. High-quality copper B/L spot cargo is hard to find, while the mainstream pyrometallurgy and domestic warrants are priced at around US$30-55/mt, and SX-EW spot cargo is hard to find. The CIF B/L price for EQ copper ranges from US$4/mt to US$18/mt, with an average price of US$11/mt. Since last Friday, the SHFE/LME price ratio has declined significantly, resulting in a loss of approximately 1,500 yuan/mt for spot imports against the SHFE copper 2506 contract. The sharp decrease in active imports also indicates the emergence of an export profit window. According to SMM, the planned export volume (sum of exports to bonded areas and to LME) from domestic smelters in this round is approximately 50,000 mt. Traders are also taking the opportunity to actively purchase at low prices from domestic smelters, leading to a significant decline in offshore US dollar copper premiums, particularly for domestic warrants in bonded areas and B/L for domestic brands arriving at the port. As of this week, the spot market has been sluggish. The high backwardation structure and low premium environment for LME copper have resulted in low willingness to trade among both buyers and sellers, with only a few traders making small transactions to fill long-term contract gaps. Looking ahead to next week, SMM maintains its unchanged market outlook. Both Yangshan copper warrant and B/L premiums are expected to remain difficult to recover. The LME backwardation structure is anticipated to continue expanding upwards, with the SHFE/LME price ratio unlikely to recover. Market activity is expected to remain low, and Yangshan copper premiums are projected to continue operating at low levels. According to the SMM survey, as of Thursday (June 12), copper inventories in domestic bonded areas increased by 1,700 mt from the previous period (June 5) to 59,700 mt. Among them, bonded copper inventories in Shanghai increased by 0.17 mt to 53,700 mt, while bonded copper inventories in Guangdong remained unchanged from the previous period. The main reason for the increase in bonded area inventories this week was the slow customs clearance of imported B/Ls arriving at the port. Since last Friday, import losses have widened significantly, Yangshan copper premiums have declined sharply, and traders' willingness to import has decreased. Some of the B/Ls for arriving shipments have been converted into bonded warehouse inventory. Meanwhile, domestic smelters plan to increase their exports, leading to an increase in bonded area inventory. Looking ahead, it is expected that the export of bonded cargo from domestic smelters will arrive gradually, and bonded warehouse inventory is expected to continue to increase. 》View the SMM Metal Industry Chain Database

》View SMM metal quotes, data, and market analysis 》Subscribe to view historical price trends of SMM metal spot cargo This week (June 3-6), the weekly average price range of Yangshan copper premiums B/L transactions was $74-106.5/mt, with QP June, and the average price was $90.25/mt, down $14.75/mt WoW. The price range of warrants was $66.5-76.5/mt, with QP June, and the average price was $71.5/mt, down $18.7/mt WoW, QP June. The EQ copper CIF B/L price was $32.5-47/mt, with an average price of $39.75/mt, down $29.25/mt WoW, QP June. As of May 30, the SHFE/LME copper price ratio for the SHFE copper 2506 contract was 8.0898, and the import profit margin was around -1,500 yuan/mt. As of Friday, LME copper 3M-Jun was in backwardation of $80.91/mt; the spread between the June date and July date swap fees was approximately BACK $31/mt. Currently, the actual price of high-quality ER copper warrants is $47/mt, mainstream pyrometallurgy and domestic warrants are priced at $30-40/mt, and SX-EW spot cargo is hard to find. High-quality copper B/L spot cargo is hard to find, mainstream pyrometallurgy and domestic warrants are priced at around $50-80/mt, and SX-EW spot cargo is hard to find. CIF B/L EQ copper is priced at $8-20/mt, with an average price of $14/mt. The offshore market experienced significant fluctuations this week. As the LME-COMEX price spread widened to around $1,300/mt at the beginning of the week, CME registered B/L and Australian copper arriving in mid-to-early June were swept up, with transactions exceeding $200 at the beginning of the week. However, the SHFE/LME price ratio continued to decline, and domestic warrant and B/L quotes fell, making it difficult to secure transactions. As a result, there were significant differences between buyers and sellers during the week, and market transaction prices diverged widely. Due to large traders hoarding inventories in the global market, the LME backwardation structure rose to $80/mt at the end of the week, and the destocking process in Asia continued. Overall, supplies began to concentrate and move towards bonded areas. Looking ahead to next week, LME inventories are expected to continue declining before the June date, as there is limited room for the copper price ratio to recover amid rising copper prices. Under the combined impact of onshore B/L and export supplies, Yangshan copper premiums for both warrants and B/L are unlikely to rebound, and the market is expected to remain divided in the short term. The LME backwardation structure is expected to continue expanding upwards, and the holding costs for suppliers are expected to increase. The market is expected to rebound when domestic inventories start to decline again. Yangshan copper premiums are expected to continue declining slightly. According to the SMM survey, as of Thursday (June 5), domestic bonded area copper inventories rose by 3,800 mt from the previous period (May 29) to 58,000 mt. Among them, Shanghai bonded area inventories rose by 0.25 mt to 52,000 mt, and Guangdong bonded area inventories rose by 1,300 mt to 6,000 mt. The main reason for the rebound in bonded area inventory this week was the decrease in active customs clearance imports caused by the deterioration of the SHFE/LME price ratio. In terms of supply, LME canceled B/Ls continued to arrive at ports. Additionally, with the opening of the export window, domestic smelters successively formulated new export plans, leading to a temporary halt in the overall inventory drawdown. Looking ahead, it is expected that some domestic smelters will export to bonded sources next week. Coupled with the slow arrival and customs clearance of imported B/Ls, it is anticipated that bonded warehouse inventory will continue to increase. 》View the SMM Metal Industry Chain Database

SMM Morning Meeting Summary: Overnight, LME copper opened at $9,604.5/mt, fluctuated considerably to reach an intraday low before surging straight up to a high of $9,636.5/mt. It then fluctuated downward, touching a bottom of $9,578/mt near the close, and ultimately closed at $9,615/mt, marking a 1.24% increase. Trading volume reached 15,000 lots, and open interest reached 286,000 lots. Overnight, SHFE copper was closed.

》Check SMM copper quotes, data, and market analysis 》Subscribe to view historical price trends of SMM metal spot cargo SMM May 30 At 11:30 today, the futures closing price was 78,100 yuan/mt, down 150 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The average spot premiums/discounts were 170 yuan/mt, up 20 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Today, the price of secondary copper raw material dropped 300 yuan/mt MoM. The price of bare bright copper in Guangdong was 72,400-72,600 yuan/mt, down 300 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The price difference between copper cathode and copper scrap was 1,142 yuan/mt, up 189 yuan/mt MoM. The price difference between copper cathode rod and secondary copper rod was 1,115 yuan/mt. According to the SMM survey, secondary copper raw material import traders indicated that COMEX copper prices pulled back this week, so the absolute value of the discount for secondary copper raw material in the US decreased. However, LME copper prices only dropped slightly, so the discount coefficient quoted by local suppliers did not change. In Europe, the local supply of secondary copper raw material remained tight this week, so prices did not pull back.

》Check SMM metal quotes, data, and market analysis 》Subscribe to view historical price trends of SMM metal spot cargo This week (May 26-30), the weekly average price range of Yangshan copper premiums for B/L transactions was $92.6 to $117.4/mt, with QP June and an average price of $105/mt, down $3.6/mt WoW. The price range for warrants was $84.8 to $95.6/mt, with QP June and an average price of $90.2/mt, down $3.2/mt WoW, QP June. The CIF B/L price for EQ copper was $63.6 to $74.8/mt, with an average price of $69.2/mt, down $8.2/mt WoW, QP June. As of May 30, the SHFE/LME copper price ratio for the SHFE copper 2506 contract was 8.1605, with an import profit margin around -950 yuan/mt. As of Friday, LME copper 3M-Jun was in backwardation of $52.59/mt; the swap fee difference between June date and July date was in backwardation of $15/mt. Currently, the actual price for high-quality ER copper warrants is $90/mt, with mainstream pyrometallurgy and domestic warrants priced at $80-85/mt, and SX-EW spot cargo hard to find. The price for high-quality copper B/L is $110-120/mt, with mainstream pyrometallurgy and domestic warrants priced at around $90-100/mt, and SX-EW spot cargo hard to find. The CIF B/L price for EQ copper is $50 to $60/mt, with an average price of $55/mt. At the beginning of this week, as the LME-COMEX price spread returned to around $950-1,000/mt, the market once again saw buyers paying high prices for CME-registered B/Ls. Last week, the CME officially announced good deliveries of Onsan I and II copper cathode, temporarily boosting the premiums for copper cathode brands from South Korea, Chile, Australia, etc. However, overall, the price ratio continued to fall this week, with spot import losses widening to 1,000 yuan/mt, and domestic consumption showing no significant growth. Mid-week, rumors emerged in overseas markets that a major player had canceled a large amount of Russian copper, and the LME June-3M backwardation structure widened to $50/mt. Due to the above factors, the overall trend of imported copper premiums still showed a pullback. Among them, EQ B/Ls and domestic warrants saw larger declines, and the overall purchasing sentiment of downstream buyers was poor. Looking ahead to next week, if the price ratio continues to deteriorate, market participants may choose to deploy inter-market arbitrage strategies, and after premiums fall to low levels, some traders may restock at lower prices. Considering that the supply of imported copper remains tight from May to July, it is expected that Yangshan copper premiums will gradually stabilize after a short-term decline. According to the SMM survey, as of Thursday (May 29), copper inventories in domestic bonded zones fell by 6,500 mt from the previous period (May 22) to 54,200 mt. Among them, bonded copper inventories in Shanghai fell by 4,800 mt to 49,500 mt; bonded copper inventories in Guangdong fell by 2,300 mt to 4,700 mt. The continuous decline in bonded area inventory this week was mainly due to large traders clearing their inventory through customs, while the volume of B/Ls arriving from the LME and entering the warehouse was relatively low. As a result, the overall inventory decline slowed down as expected. Looking ahead, as the SHFE/LME price ratio continues to decline, the market-driven volume of imports cleared through customs is expected to decrease, and the de-stocking rate of bonded warehouses is anticipated to continue to slow down. 》View the SMM Metal Industry Chain Database

SMM Morning Meeting Summary: Overnight, LME copper opened at $9,583.0/mt, hitting a low of $9,571.0/mt at the beginning of the session before rising steadily. It reached a high of $9,640.0/mt during the session, then fluctuated downward overall, eventually closing at $9,596.0/mt, down 0.19%. Trading volume was 15,828 lots, and open interest was 289,893 lots. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE copper 2507 contract opened at 78,160 yuan/mt, with prices fluctuating at the beginning of the session. It reached a high of 78,240 yuan/mt and a low of 78,020 yuan/mt during the session, fluctuating overall before eventually closing at 78,100 yuan/mt, up 0.14%. Trading volume was 27,541 lots, and open interest was 164,859 lots.