[SMM Analysis]Analysis of Import and Export Data for Unwrought Aluminum Alloy, January-February 2026

[SMM Cast Aluminum Alloy Morning Comment: Futures Rebound Lifted Sentiment, Spot Quotes Rose Across the Board] Spot market, boosted by the rebound in futures prices, ADC12 quotes rose across the board today, with the SMM average price of ADC12 raised by 300 yuan/mt. Driven by the cost side, producers actively recouped earlier losses, generally raising prices by 200-400 yuan/mt. However, affected by wild swings in prices during the week, downstream purchase sentiment remained cautious, with most buyers staying on the sidelines and only restocking to meet immediate needs, while the overall pace of market transactions was stable. In the short term, against the backdrop of cost support and a mild release of supply, ADC12 prices were expected to hold up well.

[SMM Cast Aluminum Alloy Morning Comment: SHFE Aluminum Has Seen Wide Swings for Many Days, While Alloys Rose Strongly in Tandem] Yesterday, the SMM ADC12 price increased by 500 yuan/mt, with the center of market quotations shifting up significantly. Most producers raised prices by 500–600 yuan/mt. Recently, raw material prices have continued to strengthen, and the cost side has risen rapidly, providing a clear boost to enterprise quotations. However, downstream demand remained relatively stable. Most enterprises reported that orders and inquiries were generally average, while downstream procurement still mainly focused on restocking as needed. Supported by cost pressure and market expectations, enterprises showed a relatively clear willingness to raise prices. In the short term, against the backdrop of cost support and mild supply release, ADC12 prices are expected to hold up well. The medium-term trend still depends on the recovery of end-use consumption. If orders in the die-casting industry increase significantly, the price center is expected to move further upward; if the demand recovery falls short of expectations, coupled with a continued increase in the supply-side operating rate, prices will shift into high-level consolidation.

[SMM Cast Aluminum Alloy Morning Comment: Prices Pull Back as Aluminum Scrap Holders Are Reluctant to Sell; Overall Market Trading Remains Muted] Yesterday, the SMM ADC12 price rose by 500 yuan/mt, with the center of market quotations moving up markedly. Most producers’ price adjustments were concentrated in the 500–600 yuan/mt range. Recently, raw material prices have continued to strengthen, and the cost side has risen quickly, providing a clear lift to enterprise quotations. However, downstream demand has been relatively steady. Most enterprises reported that orders and inquiry activity were generally average, and downstream purchasing remains mainly restocking on an as-needed basis. Supported by cost-driven momentum and market expectations, enterprises have shown a clear willingness to raise prices. In the short term, against the backdrop of cost support and mild supply release, ADC12 prices are expected to hold up well. The medium-term trend will still depend on the recovery of end-use consumption. If die-casting industry orders increase significantly, the price center is expected to move up further; if demand recovery falls short of expectations, coupled with a continued rise in operating rates on the supply side, prices will shift from elevated levels into rangebound consolidation.

[SMM Aluminum Morning Meeting Minutes: Middle East Geopolitical Risks Heighten Supply Concerns; Aluminum Prices to Trend Strongly Higher in the Short Term] Overall, although domestic social inventory continues to build up, the current geopolitical situation in the Middle East is the focus of global attention. If the geopolitical conflict continues, expectations for a tightening in global aluminum supply will remain strong, and aluminum prices will have strong upward momentum. In the short term, aluminum prices are expected to hold up well.

[SMM Cast Aluminum Alloy Morning Comment: Price Pullback Spurs Aluminum Scrap Hoarding; Overall Market Trading Remains Subdued] Overall ADC12 market quotations moved lower, with most cuts in the 200-400 yuan/mt range. The adjustments were mainly driven by a downward shift in the cost center and subdued downstream purchasing. However, against the backdrop of a price pullback, aluminum scrap traders’ reluctance to sell has become pronounced, leaving limited room for raw material costs to fall further. Enterprises have been generally cautious in making price adjustments, and most producers remain bullish on the outlook. In the short term, with cost support and a mild release of supply, ADC12 prices are expected to hold up well. The medium-term trend will still depend on the recovery in end-use consumption. If die-casting industry orders increase significantly, the price center is expected to move further higher; if demand recovery falls short of expectations, coupled with a continued rise in operating rates on the supply side, prices will shift from elevated levels into rangebound consolidation.

[[Weekly Review of Aluminum Scrap and Secondary Aluminum]]Geopolitical Risks and Cost Drivers Combined: Weekly Increase in ADC12 Prices Reached 1,000 Yuan

[Aluminum Express] On February 19, 2026, Alba released its Q4 and annual report for 2025. The report shows that in Q4 2025, Alba's profit reached $289 million, hitting a record high, primarily benefiting from the rise in LME aluminum prices and premiums; Alba's production in 2025 also reached a record high of 1,623,139 mt, and despite a fire incident at the end of 2025, production still exceeded targets. The production line affected by the fire at Alba is currently in the recovery phase.

[SMM Analysis]Cost-Driven ADC12 Aluminum Alloy Rally Continues, High-Level Scrap Aluminum Game Warns of Correction

According to SMM's latest monthly data survey, the total production of aluminum rods nationwide in May 2025 was 417,000 mt, an increase of 10,500 mt from April. After adjusting for the number of days in the month, the operating rate of aluminum rod plants in May was recorded at 62.15%, down 1.01% MoM and up 5.95% YoY. In the first half of May, due to the in the doldrums of aluminum prices and sufficient profit margins from orders on hand in the downstream sector, the market's purchasing efforts did not significantly weaken. Coupled with the industry still being in a concentrated shipping cycle, the supply side was able to maintain fluctuations at highs. However, in the second half of May, LME aluminum prices held up well due to the scarcity of aluminum ingots circulating in the market, while there was a noticeable weakening trend in industry deliveries. Consequently, market conditions took a sharp turn for the worse, and processing fees pulled back rapidly.