SMM June 27 news: Metal market: Overnight, domestic base metals almost all rose. SHFE zinc rose 2.16%, SHFE copper rose 0.9%, SHFE aluminum rose 0.81%, and SHFE tin rose 1.66%. SHFE nickel rose 0.36%. SHFE lead fell 0.37%. In addition, the most-traded alumina futures rose 0.64%, and the most-traded cast aluminum continuous contract rose 1.66%. Overnight, ferrous metals mostly rose. Stainless steel rose 0.48%, iron ore rose 0.54%, and rebar fell 0.1%. HRC was flat at 3,312 yuan/mt. Coking coal and coke side: the most-traded coking coal contract rose 1.13%, and the most-traded coke contract rose 1.21%. Overnight, in the overseas metal market, LME base metals generally rose. LME copper edged up. LME aluminum rose 0.39%, LME lead fell 0.58%. LME zinc rose 1.8%. LME tin rose 1.69%. LME nickel fell 0.36%. Overnight precious metals: COMEX gold rose 1.37%, but posted a four-week losing streak on the weekly chart, down 3.37% for the week; COMEX silver rose 1.37%, but has fallen for seven consecutive weeks, down 10.79% for the week. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE gold continuous contract rose 1.34%, with SHFE gold posting a weekly decline, down 6.33% for the week; the most-traded SHFE silver continuous contract rose 2.61%, with SHFE silver posting a weekly decline, down 15.23% for the week. Macquarie strategists noted that all eyes are currently on the path of inflation and whether central banks, especially the US Federal Reserve, will tighten policies to control prices. The apparent end of the Middle East conflict, coupled with a more hawkish US Fed stance, led to a pullback in gold prices. The first meeting of new US Fed Chair Walsh had a 'hawkish' tone, and under his leadership, the central bank has the ability to 'drive or suppress' gold market prices. The shock from the Middle East situation is expected to drag on global growth in Q3, after which the eventual recovery in global growth and the start of a monetary easing cycle should drive gold prices lower, as more investor funds shift from precious metals to other assets. Investors have been taking profits and shifting to equities, creating space for them to re-enter the precious metals sector and drive a price rebound, though this may require a major macro event to reignite investor interest in gold. The forecast is for spot gold to average $4,641 in 2026, up 35% YoY, but to decline 9.5% to $4,200 in 2027, and then fall year by year through 2030. The bank lowered its year-end spot gold forecast from $4,400 to $4,300. (Jinshi Data APP) As of 7:46 on June 27, the closing prices for the overnight session: Macro front China: [National Bureau of Statistics (NBS): Profits of China's industrial enterprises above designated size grew 18.8% in January-May, with the electronics industry providing significant support] Data from the National Bureau of Statistics showed that in January-May, the total profits of China's industrial enterprises above designated size reached 3,143.96 billion yuan, up 18.8% YoY. From January to May, among industrial enterprises above designated size, state-controlled enterprises realized total profits of 1,048.66 billion yuan, up 19.6% YoY; joint-stock enterprises realized total profits of 2,434.81 billion yuan, up 24.1% YoY; foreign-invested enterprises and those funded by Hong Kong, Macao, and Taiwan investors realized total profits of 695.72 billion yuan, up 4.2% YoY; and private enterprises realized total profits of 772.65 billion yuan, up 10.7% YoY. Yu Weining, chief statistician of the Industrial Department of the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), interpreted the profit data of industrial enterprises for January–May 2026. Yu Weining noted that the electronics sector played a significant supporting role. From January to May, profits of the equipment manufacturing industry above designated size increased by 14.1% YoY, boosting the overall profit growth of industrial enterprises above designated size by 5.2 percentage points. From an industry perspective, the global AI technology revolution has led to explosive demand for high-end computing power chips and memory chips, driving rapid profit growth in the electronics sector. From January to May, profits of the electronics industry surged 103.9% YoY, contributing 43.1% to the profit growth of all industrial enterprises above designated size, making it a crucial underpinning for the relatively rapid profit growth of these enterprises. [Series of 7 National Standards for "Artificial Intelligence — Agent Interconnection" Released] At a press conference held by the State Administration for Market Regulation (SAMR), it was announced that the series of national standards "Artificial Intelligence — Agent Interconnection" has been officially released. With the rapid iteration of technologies such as large models, artificial intelligence is accelerating from the stage of perception and understanding into a new phase of generative decision-making and autonomous execution. An agent, as an intelligent system with capabilities in autonomous perception, memory, decision-making, interaction, and execution, represents an important application form of next-generation AI. It is also a key vehicle for AI technology to empower diverse industries and underpin high-quality development of the intelligent economy. The seven national standards in the "Artificial Intelligence — Agent Interconnection" series released this time comprehensively cover core aspects including overall architecture, identity codes, identity management, agent description, agent discovery, agent interaction, and agent tool invocation. They systematically establish a closed-loop standards framework encompassing "identity identification—capability description—supply-demand discovery—collaborative interaction—tool invocation," effectively filling the standard gap in this field. With unified architecture and interaction rules established through these standards, enterprises can reuse standardized components, reduce customized development, and shorten time-to-market. At the same time, they lay an institutional foundation for cross-domain trustworthiness and secure interaction by establishing unified identity authentication and full traceability mechanisms. (CCTV News) The People's Bank of China and the General Administration of Customs have issued a notice to solicit public opinions on the "Administrative Measures for the Import and Export of Gold and Gold Products (Draft for Comments)." (From Wall Street News APP) [Three Departments: Further Improve the Collection of Mining Rights Transfer Proceeds] The Ministry of Finance, the Ministry of Natural Resources, and the State Taxation Administration issued a notice on further improving the collection of mining rights transfer proceeds, clarifying that effective August 1, 2026, late payment fees on mining rights transfer proceeds will no longer be collected. If a mining rights holder fails to pay mining rights transfer proceeds on time and in full, a penalty of 0.2% per day will be charged starting from the date of default, and the total penalty will not exceed the principal amount overdue. The penalty for mining rights transfer proceeds shall be paid into the mining rights transfer proceeds revenue category and shared uniformly according to the central-local sharing ratio for mining rights transfer proceeds. Late payment fees incurred before the implementation of this notice shall continue to be paid according to the original regulations, and no penalty shall be imposed. On the US dollar: The US dollar index fell 0.1% overnight to 101.36. On a weekly basis, the index posted a second straight weekly gain, rising 0.6% for the week. As oil prices fell and the market reassessed US interest rate prospects, Treasury yields and the dollar moved lower. The CME FedWatch Tool shows that the probability of one rate hike this year remains high at 42%, while the probability of a second rate hike has fallen to 28% from 34% a week ago as inflation expectations have cooled. A Wall Street Journal survey indicates the University of Michigan consumer sentiment index, to be released at 10 a.m. ET (10 p.m. Beijing time), is expected to rise to 49 from 44.8. (Jin10 Data APP) A Reuters poll showed that 78 of 102 economists surveyed expect the Fed to keep the federal funds rate unchanged at 3.50%-3.75% in 2026, compared with 72 of 102 economists in early June. Artem Sakhbiev, FX strategist at BCA Research, said in a note that the dollar’s recent rebound appears overdone and lacks the support needed to break out of its trading range of the past year. The Fed revised up its rate forecasts at last week’s meeting and clearly focused on inflation. This pushed real yields sharply higher and eased concerns about political pressure for interest rate cuts, boosting the dollar. However, this move now looks largely exhausted. The Fed is likely to keep rates on hold, and the spread between short- and long-term yields could widen. (Jin10 Data APP) According to Nick Timiraos, known as the “Fed mouthpiece,” sources say the search for a new president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta has stalled. The initial slate of candidates failed to produce a final choice, forcing the bank to relaunch a selection process that has already lasted seven months. On the surface, this was just a minor procedural hiccup. But at the same time, the independence of the US Fed is facing a severe test. Reserve Bank presidents are crucial to the Fed's independence: they participate in setting interest rates, and their appointment process is deliberately designed to avoid influence from Washington politics. (Jin10 Data App) Fed official Kashkari stated that signs of widespread inflation led him to expect one rate hike this year in the Fed economic forecasts released earlier this month. Rates are expected to remain unchanged in 2027. In a media interview on Friday, Kashkari said: "I am concerned about inflation, not just related to the Middle East situation, but signs of broader inflationary pressures in the economy." The Iran war pushed up oil prices, and prices rose across many categories. This has intensified concerns among some Fed officials that inflation is becoming more broad-based and persistent, potentially requiring stronger action from the central bank. A report released earlier this week showed the May PCE annual rate came in at 4.1%, the largest increase since April 2023. Prices have exceeded the Fed's 2% target for over five years. In the dot plot forecasts released by the Fed last week, half of the officials who submitted dot plot projections expected at least one rate hike this year. (Jin10 Data App) The US goods trade deficit widened to its highest level in over a year in May, as exports fell and imports rose. Data released by the Commerce Department on Friday showed the goods trade deficit expanded 27.4% from the previous month to $105.8 billion, compared to an expected deficit of $85 billion. US goods exports fell 5.4% in May, dragged down mainly by declines in multiple categories, including shipments of industrial supplies. This category covers crude oil and petroleum products. Over the same period, imports rose 3.6%. (From Wall Street CN APP) In other currency news: As London experiences record-breaking heat, Bank of England officials are starting to worry that weather could become the next shock driving up inflation, just as the previous supply shock is fading. Climate scientists increasingly expect a strong El Niño event to form later this year into 2027, disrupting global weather patterns. Now, economists are also concerned this could trigger a new round of supply shocks, push up food inflation, and once again frustrate global central banks' efforts to fight inflation. (From Wall Street CN APP) On the macro front: This week will see the release of data including the Eurozone June industrial sentiment index, Eurozone June economic sentiment index, US June Dallas Fed business activity index, Japan May unemployment rate, China June official manufacturing PMI, UK Q1 GDP annual rate final, UK Q1 current account, France June CPI monthly rate preliminary, Switzerland June KOF economic leading indicator, Germany June seasonally adjusted unemployment change, Germany June seasonally adjusted unemployment rate, Germany June CPI monthly rate preliminary, Canada April GDP monthly rate, US April FHFA house price index monthly rate, US April S&P/CS 20-City non-seasonally adjusted house price index annual rate, US June Chicago PMI, US May JOLTS job openings, US June Conference Board consumer confidence index, China June RatingDog manufacturing PMI, France June manufacturing PMI final, Germany June manufacturing PMI final, Eurozone June manufacturing PMI final, UK June manufacturing PMI final, Eurozone June CPI annual rate preliminary, Eurozone June CPI monthly rate preliminary, US June Challenger job cuts, US June ADP employment change, US June S&P Global manufacturing PMI final, US June ISM manufacturing PMI, US May construction spending monthly rate, Switzerland June CPI monthly rate, Eurozone May unemployment rate, US June unemployment rate, US June seasonally adjusted nonfarm payrolls, US initial jobless claims for the week ending June 27, US June average hourly earnings annual rate, US June average hourly earnings monthly rate, US May factory orders monthly rate, China June RatingDog services PMI, France May industrial output monthly rate, France June services PMI final, Germany June services PMI final, Eurozone June services PMI final, UK June services PMI final, and other data. Also worth watching this week: 2027 FOMC voting member and Richmond Fed President Barkin delivers a speech; The ECB holds its Central Banking Forum in Sintra, running through July 1; The 2026 Beijing Space Computing Conference takes place from June 29–30; ECB President Lagarde speaks in Sintra; The Reserve Bank of Australia releases its June monetary policy meeting minutes; The ECB holds its Central Banking Forum in Sintra; Technical talks between the US and Iran (pending); Fed Chairman Warsh, ECB President Lagarde, Bank of England Governor Bailey, and Bank of Canada Governor Macklem speak at the ECB Forum; The ECB holds its Central Banking Forum in Sintra; ECB President Lagarde delivers a speech; Bank of England Governor Bailey speaks on the coordination of fiscal and monetary policy; And China will initiate a new round of adjustments to its refined oil product pricing window. Notably, on July 1, China-Hong Kong Stock Connect will be closed for the day in observance of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region Establishment Day, with both Northbound and Southbound trading shut. On July 3, the US-New York Stock Exchange will close for the US Independence Day holiday; Trading in precious metals, energy, forex, US Treasury, and equity index futures contracts on the US-Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) will end early on July 4 at 01:00 Beijing time due to the US Independence Day holiday; Trading in Brent crude oil futures contracts on the US-Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) will end early on July 4 at 01:30 Beijing time for the same reason. In crude oil: Overnight, both oil futures declined, with WTI falling 2.34% and Brent falling 2.52%. On a weekly basis, WTI futures posted a third straight weekly decline, dropping 7.4% for the week; Brent futures also fell for a third straight week, losing 8.06%. Spot Brent crude oil prices have fallen back to pre-war levels, and the market for near-month contracts has been in contango—where near-term prices are lower than longer-term ones—for seven consecutive days, reflecting temporary oversupply. Tariq Zahir, a managing member at Tyche Capital Advisors, noted that oil prices "fell too far, too fast," that the ceasefire remains fragile and uncertainty persists in the Strait of Hormuz, and that he expects volatility to continue. Rich Privorotsky, head of One-Delta at Goldman Sachs, pointed out that Iran has begun shows of force near the Strait of Hormuz, some vessels have altered their routes, and the inventory buildup in the Gulf is gradually flowing into the market. He believes that upside potential for oil prices is limited in the near term, but that the case for significantly further downside from current levels is equally weak. (From Wallstreetcn APP) US natural gas drilling rigs recorded their largest single-week increase in four years. Data from Baker Hughes showed that the number of active oil drilling rigs operated by US energy enterprises reached 440 last week, marking a two-week consecutive increase, up from 433 the previous week. Active natural gas drilling rigs rose to 573, recording the largest gain since June 2022, compared with the prior figure of 563. (From Wall Street Cn APP) A report from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) indicated that US refining capacity decreased by 263,000 barrels per day (bpd) in 2025, a decline of 1.43%. This was primarily driven by the planned conversion of a major refinery in Houston and the closure of a refinery in the Los Angeles area due to market dynamics, which is known for strict environmental regulations. Marathon Petroleum, headquartered in Findlay, Ohio, maintained its position as the largest US refiner with a total refining capacity of 2.986 million bpd, accounting for 16.4% of the nation’s total capacity. (From Wall Street Cn APP) Furthermore, Iraq’s Ministry of Oil stated that OPEC has begun to gradually restore Iraq’s pre-war production quota, a move which will strengthen Iraq’s output capabilities and support the recovery of the oil sector. A high-level consensus has been reached within OPEC, fully taking into account Iraq’s past special circumstances and current actual needs. (From Wall Street Cn APP) Barclays said it has lowered its Brent crude oil price forecasts, cutting the 2026 estimate from $100 per barrel to $96, and the 2027 estimate from $88 to $85, citing the recovery of oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz. Oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz have rebounded substantially, reaching about 80% of pre-war levels. However, this normalization process remains incomplete. The bank noted that Iran’s assertion of control through fee impositions and coordination mechanisms has created frictions and may potentially delay a full recovery. A temporary deal reached last week aimed at ending the US-Israeli war against Iran has allowed traffic on the Strait of Hormuz shipping route to resume. (From Wall Street Cn APP) Recommended Reading:

I. Japan Market This week, Japan MJP aluminum ingot spot premiums showed a continuous downtrend, with the average price at $384/mt on June 19 pulling back to $380/mt by June 26. Although premiums kept dipping, some traders lowered their offers proactively while others held prices firm. The demand side exhibited restocking for rigid demand, with downstream enterprises purchasing as needed. Short-term restocking activity was moderate, but there was no large-scale concentrated stockpiling, and overall purchasing volume was mild. Currently, the market trading pace is slowing down, spot lacks a trend-driven upward driver in the short term, and premiums follow the futures to stay in the doldrums. II. US Market This week, US Midwest DDP aluminum spot premiums edged up, from an average of $110.2/mt on June 19 to $110.35/mt this Friday. US market fundamentals still provided support: two major demand-side increases were being released, with aluminum semis demand for AI computing data centers surging, coupled with the concentrated commissioning of new production lines at NEV manufacturers such as Tesla, steadily boosting aluminum consumption for automotive lightweighting, keeping the digestion pace of domestic aluminum ingots high. The supply side faced constraints, with Middle East geopolitical disturbances disrupting ocean shipments of aluminum ingots, arrivals growth from outside China consistently lagging downstream demand growth, and domestic inventory continuing to destock, supporting premiums to stay high. However, the pressure logic for the outlook is gradually emerging: LME aluminum prices have already fallen to a staged low, cross-regional arbitrage windows remain open, and arrivals of aluminum ingots flowing into the US market will gradually increase. Coupled with this week’s premiums having stopped rising and weakened slightly, the tight supply-demand situation will marginally ease as external supply replenishes. It is anticipated that US spot premiums will stay high but face pressure going forward, with upside room essentially capped and a pullback adjustment possible. III. Thailand Market This week, Thailand spot premiums rose from $320/mt last Friday to $323/mt this Friday. Affected by the decline in aluminum prices, some traders raised their offers. However, the upside momentum was weak, and the trading atmosphere remained sluggish. Local downstream users only maintained a hand-to-mouth purchase pattern for rigid demand, with low willingness for large-scale stockpiling. Meanwhile, continuous arrivals of aluminum semis exports from China, with large volumes of low-priced fabricated products flowing into the Southeast Asian end-use markets, directly diverted import orders for primary aluminum ingots and significantly squeezed local aluminum demand. [Data source statement: Other than publicly available information, all data are based on public information, market communication, and SMM's internal database models, and are processed by SMM. For reference only, and do not constitute decision-making advice.] Data source: SMM

[SMM Aluminum Brief] On June 26, LME aluminum inventory was 306,700 mt, down 1,500 mt or 0.49% from the previous day. Over the past week, LME aluminum inventory decreased by 8,575.00 mt, or 2.72%. Over the past month, it fell by 32,500 mt, or 9.59%.

With the continued expansion of aluminum processing and downstream industries in Southeast Asia, regional aluminum billet production, consumption and trade markets have attracted growing attention. Malaysia, Thailand and Vietnam are not only important aluminum billet production and consumption hubs in Southeast Asia, but also play a key role in regional aluminum billet trade flows. Markets such as Indonesia, the Philippines and Cambodia, meanwhile, are still at a stage where local processing capacity development and demand for imported aluminum billet are growing simultaneously. Since March 2026, the escalation of geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East has caused significant disruption to the global aluminum supply chain. On the one hand, uncertainty over the supply of primary aluminum and aluminum processed products from the Middle East has increased, pushing up procurement interest in primary aluminum, aluminum billet and secondary aluminum resources across Asian markets outside China. On the other hand, fluctuations in crude oil prices and ocean freight costs have further lifted regional aluminum processing and trading costs. Against this backdrop, LME aluminum prices, Asian regional premiums and Southeast Asian local aluminum billet processing fees have all fluctuated to varying degrees. At the same time, changes in the SHFE/LME price ratio have periodically affected the export arbitrage window for Chinese aluminum processed products. When overseas aluminum prices are stronger than domestic prices and export margins improve, Chinese aluminum processed products and some processing-trade resources show greater willingness to flow into the Southeast Asian market, creating certain disruptions to local billet supply-demand dynamics and quotations. When the price spread narrows, however, regional pricing returns to a framework driven jointly by local supply, imports from the Middle East and other overseas resources. Trade Flows From the perspective of export destinations, the flow of Southeast Asian products under HS760120 is relatively concentrated. In 2025, the top ten export destinations for Southeast Asian HS760120 products totaled around 1.2695 million mt, accounting for approximately 93.3% of total Southeast Asian exports. China was the largest destination, with full-year exports of around 602,100 mt, accounting for approximately 44.3%. Japan, Vietnam and India followed, with around 149,300 mt, 143,500 mt and 111,700 mt respectively, accounting for approximately 11.0%, 10.5% and 8.2%. It should be noted that HS760120 includes primary aluminum alloy ingots, secondary aluminum alloy ingots, other aluminum alloy billets and some cast aluminum alloy products. Therefore, this data mainly serves as a reference for observing trade flows of unwrought aluminum alloys and aluminum alloy billets in Southeast Asia, and cannot be directly equated with 6063 aluminum billet export volumes. Entering 2026, affected by the escalation of the Middle East conflict, uncertainty in the global supply chain for primary aluminum and aluminum processed products increased, and trade flows of aluminum raw materials and aluminum billets in Asia saw certain adjustments. Data shows that total Southeast Asian HS760120 exports fell to around 88,800 mt in February 2026, before rebounding to around 110,700 mt in March and further increasing to around 116,600 mt in April. From February to April, cumulative growth reached approximately 31.2%. In terms of destination changes, China remained the largest export destination, although exports to China declined in April compared with March. India, South Korea, Taiwan, China and Japan showed more obvious increases from March to April. Among them, exports to India rose from around 8,200 mt in February to around 15,700 mt in April; exports to South Korea increased from around 2,400 mt in February to around 10,000 mt in April; exports to Taiwan, China climbed from around 1,500 mt in February to around 4,100 mt in April; while exports to Japan recovered to around 13,700 mt in April. Overall, the rebound in Southeast Asian HS760120 exports from February to April 2026 reflected, on the one hand, the gradual recovery of regional trade after the Chinese New Year holiday. On the other hand, it may also have been related to Asian buyers increasing procurement of Southeast Asian regional resources and supplementing alternative supply sources after the Middle East conflict raised supply risks for overseas primary aluminum, aluminum billet and secondary aluminum. Considering that China, India, Japan, South Korea and Taiwan, China are all important aluminum processing and consumption markets in Asia, the increase in Southeast Asian product flows to these markets indicates that regional unwrought aluminum alloys and aluminum alloy billets have played a certain supplementary and balancing role in trade during periods of supply chain disruption. For the 6063 aluminum billet market, this trend cannot be directly equated with changes in 6063 aluminum billet exports, but it can serve as an important reference for assessing the circulation activity of aluminum billets and aluminum alloy raw materials in Southeast Asia, regional substitution demand and fluctuations in processing fees. Market and Price Analysis With the continued expansion of aluminum processing and downstream enterprises in Southeast Asia, the situation of 6063 aluminum billet differs across countries due to variations in processing levels and downstream demand. Overall, Malaysia and Thailand are the main aluminum billet producing countries in the region and also have certain local consumption capacity. Vietnam’s aluminum processing capacity is growing rapidly, but some local quotations are still mainly for non-homogenized cast billets. Markets such as Cambodia and the Philippines remain at a stage where local processing capacity development coexists with demand for imported aluminum billet. In terms of homogenization status, mainstream 6063 aluminum billet quotations in Malaysia and Thailand usually already include homogenization treatment, and the relevant homogenization cost is mostly included in the aluminum billet processing fee quoted by producers. A small number of non-homogenized 6063 aluminum billet quotations also exist in the Thai market, which can be used to observe the basic processing cost of cast billets. The situation in Vietnam is different. As some enterprises mainly quote non-homogenized cast billets, the apparent processing fee for 6063 aluminum billet is usually around $50-100/mt lower than homogenized quotations in Malaysia and Thailand. Aluminum billet homogenization is an important heat-treatment process in the production of 6063 aluminum billet. It usually refers to placing cast aluminum billets into a homogenizing furnace for heating, holding and cooling treatment, so that the internal composition distribution of the billet becomes more uniform and microstructural segregation formed during casting is improved. For 6063 aluminum billet, homogenization helps improve stability in the subsequent extrusion process, reduce extrusion cracking, surface defects and performance fluctuations, and improve the surface quality and yield of extruded profiles. Therefore, in the aluminum extrusion value chain, homogenized aluminum billet generally has higher use value than non-homogenized cast billet. According to SMM market research, since March 2026, under the influence of factors such as the escalation of Middle East geopolitical conflicts, tighter supply of overseas primary aluminum and aluminum billet resources, and fluctuations in energy and ocean freight costs, 6063 aluminum billet processing fees in major Southeast Asian countries rose to varying degrees. Among them, processing fees for homogenized 6063 aluminum billet in Malaysia and Thailand once increased from the previous $200-250/mt to $250-300/mt, with some high-end quotations even exceeding $300/mt during the peak period. As the Middle East situation eased periodically in mid-June, 6063 aluminum billet processing fees in Malaysia and Thailand declined. At present, mainstream 6063 aluminum billet processing fees in Malaysia have stabilized around $250/mt, and mainstream processing fees for homogenized aluminum billet in Thailand have also stabilized around $250/mt. However, due to differences in raw material structure, product status and quotation basis among enterprises, processing fees still show a wide range. In Thailand, some 6063 aluminum billet processing fees have fallen to as low as around $100-150/mt. In Vietnam, from March to June, 6063 aluminum billet processing fees rose from the previous $150-200/mt to $200-250/mt, before falling back to around $200/mt in mid-June. In addition, from the perspective of the imported aluminum billet arrival market, from May to June, SMM learned that CIF Thailand and Malaysia 6063 aluminum billet premiums/discounts were mostly around a premium of $100/mt, while some low-priced resources even fell to a discount of around $100/mt. These resources were mainly 6063 aluminum billets processed in China under processing trade and then re-exported to the Southeast Asian market. Amid cost advantages and an increase in cargo inflows at certain stages, these resources exerted some impact on the local aluminum billet market in Southeast Asia. From March to April, affected by Middle East geopolitical conflicts, uncertainty over some Middle Eastern aluminum supply increased. Asian buyers in India, Japan, South Korea and Taiwan, China showed higher interest in Southeast Asian aluminum billets and related aluminum alloy resources, driving some Southeast Asian aluminum billet resources to flow out of the region and supporting stronger regional quotations. However, entering May and June, as Chinese aluminum billets flowed into markets such as Thailand and Malaysia through processing trade and re-export channels, competition pressure faced by local Southeast Asian aluminum billet plants increased. SMM research shows that sales pressure for some 6063 aluminum billet producers in Malaysia and Thailand has increased compared with earlier levels, and low-priced imported arrival resources have put certain downward pressure on local ex-works processing fees and the transaction price center. Outlook for Southeast Asian Aluminum Processing Looking ahead, the Southeast Asian 6063 aluminum billet market will continue to evolve around regional processing capacity expansion, import substitution, changes in raw material structure and overseas low-carbon requirements. In the short term, Malaysia, Thailand and Vietnam will remain the core markets for 6063 aluminum billet production and consumption in Southeast Asia. Malaysia and Thailand have relatively mature local billet casting and homogenization capacity, and their pricing systems are closer to a quotation logic based on “LME + regional premium + homogenized processing fee.” Vietnam, meanwhile, still has room for growth in aluminum billet demand as aluminum extrusion and downstream processing capacity improves, but the quotation basis for homogenized and non-homogenized products still needs to be further differentiated. Although local sample coverage in markets such as Indonesia, the Philippines and Cambodia remains limited at present, with the advancement of local aluminum processing projects, future demand for imported aluminum billet, secondary aluminum billet and intra-regional trade flows will remain worth monitoring. In the medium to long term, CBAM and overseas customers’ low-carbon procurement requirements may further drive segmentation in the price system of the Southeast Asian aluminum value chain. For the Southeast Asian aluminum billet market, the impact of CBAM may not necessarily be directly reflected through large-scale exports of aluminum billet itself to Europe, but may instead be transmitted through the export value chain of aluminum profiles, window and door profiles, industrial profiles and other deep-processed products. In the future, when European customers procure aluminum processed products from Southeast Asia, they may pay greater attention to raw material sources, the ratio of primary aluminum, in-house new scrap and aluminum scrap, carbon emission data during production, supply chain traceability and third-party verification capability. Against this backdrop, enterprises with stable homogenization capacity, clear raw material structures, the ability to provide emissions data and low-carbon material options may gain stronger advantages in securing export orders and price negotiations. From the perspective of the price system, CBAM may not immediately drive a one-sided increase in Southeast Asian 6063 aluminum billet processing fees, but it will raise market requirements for differentiating “product status” and “raw material attributes.” In the future, price spreads between liquid aluminum direct-cast billets, remelted aluminum ingot billets and remelted aluminum scrap billets, price spreads between homogenized and non-homogenized aluminum billets, and differences between CIF imported aluminum billet premiums and local ex-works processing fees are all expected to become key areas of market attention. As the aluminum processing industry in Southeast Asia continues to expand, the 6063 aluminum billet market may gradually develop from relatively broad trade quotations in the past toward a more segmented price system differentiated by country, alloy grade, homogenization status, raw material attribute and trade term. SMM Price Points Against the backdrop of regional processing expansion and low-carbon trends, Southeast Asian 6063 aluminum billet processing fees have gradually become one of the key price indicators followed by the market. To help enterprises better track price changes in the Southeast Asian 6063 aluminum billet market, SMM, after market research and improvement of its pricing methodology, will add a series of Southeast Asian 6063 aluminum billet processing fee, calculated reference price and CIF premium/discount price points starting from 3rd July 2026 (Friday) onward for market reference. The Southeast Asian 6063 Aluminum Billet Premium price points will be updated on a weekly basis every Friday at 12:00 noon Kuala Lumpur time, Malaysia, which is the same as Beijing time, GMT+8. Due to differences in settlement methods among enterprises, the full aluminum billet price may vary. For reference, it can be estimated using the following formula: 【LME Official Cash Settlement Price + Quarterly MJP + 6063 Aluminum Billet Processing Fee】. Details of the relevant price points are as follows: Cambodia 6063 Aluminum Billet (Homogenized) Premium, ex-works Cambodia, USD/tonne Malaysia 6063 Aluminum Billet (Homogenized) Premium, ex-works Malaysia, USD/tonne Thailand 6063 Aluminum Billet (Homogenized) Premium, ex-works Thailand, USD/tonne Thailand 6063 Aluminum Billet (Non-homogenized) Premium, ex-works Thailand, USD/tonne Vietnam 6063 Aluminum Billet (Non-homogenized) Premium, ex-works Vietnam, USD/tonne The SMM Southeast Asian 6063 Aluminum Billet price points will be updated on a daily basis every working day at 12:00 noon Kuala Lumpur time, Malaysia, which is the same as Beijing time, GMT+8. The SMM calculated reference price will be derived using the formula: 【LME Official Cash Settlement Price (D-1) + Quarterly MJP + Latest 6063 Aluminum Billet Processing Fee】. Based on this, SMM will publish low-end, high-end and average calculated reference prices. Details of the relevant price points are as follows: SMM Cambodia 6063 Aluminum Billet (Homogenized), ex-works Cambodia, USD/tonne SMM Malaysia 6063 Aluminum Billet (Homogenized), ex-works Malaysia, USD/tonne SMM Thailand 6063 Aluminum Billet (Homogenized), ex-works Thailand, USD/tonne SMM Thailand 6063 Aluminum Billet (Non-homogenized), ex-works Thailand, USD/tonne SMM Vietnam 6063 Aluminum Billet (Non-homogenized), ex-works Vietnam, USD/tonne At the same time, to provide a reference comparison for the Southeast Asian 6063 aluminum billet processing and trading market, SMM will also launch CIF Southeast Asia 6063 Aluminum Billet Premium price points for market reference. The CIF Southeast Asia 6063 aluminum billet premium/discount price points will be updated on a weekly basis every Friday at 12:00 noon Kuala Lumpur time, Malaysia, which is the same as Beijing time, GMT+8. Due to differences in settlement methods among enterprises, the full imported aluminum billet price may vary. For reference, it can be settled using the following formula: 【LME Official Cash Settlement Price + Quarterly MJP + 6063 Aluminum Billet Premium/Discount】. Details of the relevant price points are as follows: CIF Thailand 6063 Aluminum Billet (Non-homogenized) Premium Summary Overall, the Southeast Asian 6063 aluminum billet market is currently at a stage where regional processing capacity expansion, trade flow adjustments and price system segmentation are taking place simultaneously. In the short term, Middle East geopolitical conflicts, changes in overseas primary aluminum and aluminum billet supply, and fluctuations in energy and ocean freight costs will continue to affect Southeast Asian aluminum billet processing fees and import premiums/discounts. At the same time, changes in the SHFE/LME price ratio will also continue to periodically affect the willingness of Chinese aluminum processed products and related aluminum billet resources to flow into the Southeast Asian market. From the perspective of market structure, Malaysia, Thailand and Vietnam remain the core markets for 6063 aluminum billet production, consumption and trade circulation in Southeast Asia. Among them, Malaysia and Thailand have relatively mature pricing systems for homogenized aluminum billet, while Vietnam still requires separate differentiation in price basis due to the relatively high share of non-homogenized cast billet quotations. Going forward, as local processing capacity develops in markets such as Indonesia, the Philippines and Cambodia, changes in regional imported aluminum billet, secondary aluminum billet and local processing fees will also become areas worth continuous tracking. In the medium to long term, CBAM and overseas low-carbon procurement requirements will further increase the importance attached by the Southeast Asian aluminum processing value chain to raw material structure, homogenization capability, carbon emission data and supply chain traceability. Although CBAM may not necessarily drive an immediate one-sided increase in 6063 aluminum billet processing fees, it will prompt the market to more clearly distinguish between different product bases, including liquid aluminum direct-cast billets, remelted aluminum ingot billets, remelted aluminum scrap billets, as well as homogenized and non-homogenized products. Against this backdrop, the launch of SMM Southeast Asia 6063 aluminum billet processing fee, calculated reference price and CIF premium/discount price points will help the market more clearly track changes in regional aluminum billet costs, import substitution space, trade flow adjustments and price differentiation trends under the low-carbon transition.

SMM, June 26: Metals market: As of the midday close, base metals on the domestic market almost all fell. SHFE copper edged down, SHFE aluminum fell 0.38%, SHFE lead rose 0.15%, SHFE zinc fell 1%, SHFE tin dropped 1.7%, and SHFE nickel declined 1.81%. In addition, the most-traded foundry aluminum futures fell 0.4%, the most-traded alumina contract dropped 1.41%, the most-traded lithium carbonate contract tumbled 5.26%, the most-traded silicon metal contract lost 0.89%, and the most-traded polysilicon futures fell 3.53%. Ferrous metals all fell. Iron ore dropped 0.67%, rebar lost 0.64%, hot-rolled coil slipped 0.51%, and stainless steel dipped 0.21%. Coking coal and coke: the most-traded coking coal contract fell 0.92%, and the most-traded coke contract fell 1.21%. Overseas base metals: as of 11:43, LME metals all fell. LME copper dropped 1.55%, LME aluminum fell 0.97%, LME lead lost 0.39%, LME zinc declined 1.38%, LME tin tumbled 1.99%, and LME nickel fell 1.36%. Precious metals: as of 11:43, COMEX gold fell 0.9% and COMEX silver plunged 3.4%. Domestic precious metals: SHFE gold edged down 0.11%; the most-traded SHFE silver contract extended losses from the previous five trading days, falling another 2.72%, and hit an intraday low of 13,513 yuan/kg, the weakest since December 2025. Additionally, as of the midday break, the most-traded platinum futures rose 0.31%, while the most-traded palladium futures fell 0.85%. As of the midday close, the most-traded container shipping (Europe route) futures added 0.7% to 3,686.5 points. Selected futures midday quotes as of 11:43, June 26: Spot and fundamentals Aluminum: The futures market stopped falling and edged up today. Spot aluminum in South China gradually weakened amid divergence. Low aluminum prices and strong destocking continued to support suppliers holding prices firm in selling... Macro front China: [National Energy Administration: During the 15th Five-Year Plan period, it will continue to open up energy projects and issue investment guidelines for private enterprises to participate in large and medium-sized hydropower projects] Wan Jinsong, deputy director and spokesperson of the National Energy Administration, stated at a State Council Information Office press conference that during the 15th Five-Year Plan period, the administration will persist in the approach of open construction and service-driven investment, increasing support for private enterprises to engage in building a new-type energy system. For major energy projects, it will expand the investment space for private enterprises. For major projects with certain returns, such as nuclear power, hydropower, and oil and gas storage and transportation facilities, the feasibility of private enterprise participation will be assessed on a case-by-case basis. During the 15th Five-Year Plan period, we will continue to open up energy projects, issue investment guidelines for private enterprises to participate in large and medium-sized hydropower projects and others, so that their investments have direction and returns are guaranteed. We will further improve the electricity market and pricing mechanism, and support private enterprises in investing in projects such as virtual power plants, charging facilities, and new-type energy storage. [Wang Hongzhi, Director of the National Energy Administration: China's installed power capacity is expected to reach 5.4 billion kW by 2030] Wang Hongzhi, member of the Party Leadership Group of the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) and Director of the National Energy Administration, stated at a press conference of the State Council Information Office that China's installed power capacity has now exceeded 4 billion kW and is expected to reach 5.4 billion kW by 2030. Among this, new energy will account for over 50% of installed capacity, becoming the mainstay of power capacity, while non-fossil fuel power generation will account for 50% of total electricity output, becoming the main source of electricity. Coal and oil consumption will have peaked. The PBOC conducted a 231.5 billion yuan 7-day reverse repo operation today at an interest rate of 1.4%, unchanged from the previous rate. No reverse repos matured today. The PBOC injected a net 329.7 billion yuan into the open market this week. (From Wallstreetcn APP) US dollar aspect: As of 11:43, the US dollar index rose 0.01% to 101.47. According to CME "FedWatch": the probability that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged in July is 69%, while the probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point hike is 31%. For September, the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 36.6%, cumulative 25-bp hike is 48.8%, and cumulative 50-bp hike is 14.6%. Fed Williams stated that the current monetary policy stance is well positioned to bring inflation back to the Fed's 2% target while acknowledging that risks to achieving its dual mandate remain. Williams said, "Given that inflation is elevated, we must bring it back sustainably to the 2% longer-run goal. The current stance of monetary policy is fully capable of achieving that." Williams noted that inflation is "clearly elevated" and well above the Committee's 2% objective. He expects inflation data to pull back slightly over the next few quarters, although significant risks remain. Fed Goolsbee said on Thursday that while the latest US inflation report showed a glimmer of hope for improvement in services inflation, underlying inflation pressures remain too high and concerning. In an interview with CNBC, Goolsbee declined to offer specific views on whether the Fed should raise rates or keep them unchanged. He said he agreed with Fed Chairman Warsh's view that fueling speculation about future interest rate paths should be avoided. (Jin10 Data APP) US data sent mixed signals while oil prices fell below pre-conflict levels. The May PCE inflation YoY matched average expectations, accelerating from 3.8% to 4.1%. Lower energy costs are expected to cool future inflation. May durable goods orders fell 4.5%, versus average expectations for a 4% decline. Meanwhile, Q1 real GDP annualized quarterly rate was revised up from 1.6% to 2.1%, compared to expectations of 1.7%. Initial jobless claims for the week fell to 215,000, against average expectations of 223,000. (Jin10 Data APP) A CITIC Securities research report said the US dollar index has strengthened rapidly in recent days, driving gold prices below the $4,000/oz mark. Fading inflation concerns did not push the dollar lower. We believe political “re-dollarization” may partly explain the dollar’s recent strength, but a more important driver likely comes from expectations of tightening dollar liquidity. We expect the dollar index to find support this year but struggle to sustain a strong rally, and the next US inflation data could be a catalyst for the market to adjust trading strategies. On the data front: The final US June University of Michigan consumer sentiment index and final June one-year inflation expectations will be released today. Also to watch: FOMC permanent voter and New York Fed President Williams delivers a speech; 2027 FOMC voter and Chicago Fed President Goolsbee speaks; 2026 FOMC voter and Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari speaks. On the crude oil front: As of 11:43, both crude benchmarks fell, with WTI down 1.67% and Brent down 1.54%. As shipping through the Strait of Hormuz resumed, supply concerns eased somewhat. However, a cargo vessel was attacked near Oman on Thursday, and markets will closely monitor geopolitical developments. S&P Global Energy reported on the 25th that 78 vessels transited the Strait of Hormuz on the 24th, the highest single-day tally since the outbreak of the Iran war. The daily average number of vessels transiting the Strait this month has recovered to about 57% of pre-conflict levels. As of the 24th, a cumulative total of 551 vessels had transited the Strait this month, putting it on track to be the busiest month since the war began. The report noted that recent departures from the Strait included vessels that had been stranded for long periods due to the conflict as well as recent arrivals, signaling early signs of normalization in shipping activity. However, whether the rebound in transit volumes can be sustained remains to be seen, and related agreements still need further consolidation and implementation. ((Xinhua News Agency) US Secretary of Energy Wright expects Iran's daily crude oil exports to reach up to 2 million barrels. Additionally, market sources say that crude oil exports from the Persian Gulf have rebounded to 75% of pre-war levels; in the past three days through Wednesday, the region exported 13 million barrels of crude oil. (Jin10 Data App) An earlier Wallstreetcn article reported that the UAE formally withdrew from OPEC on May 1, and Iraq subsequently threatened to follow suit unless granted greater production freedom. Meanwhile, a series of geopolitical shocks—including the US takeover of Venezuelan oil assets and US-Israeli military actions against Iran—have significantly eroded OPEC's market control capability. Spot Market Overview: ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ►

[Macro Headwinds Dominate Futures; SHFE and LME Aluminum Both Remain in the Doldrums] The US Fed’s hawkish pivot boosted the US dollar index, weighing on nonferrous metal prices. The Middle East geopolitical situation showed some volatility but no signs of deterioration. Under macro headwinds, aluminum prices in and outside China fell. In the short term, bearish factors dominate, and aluminum prices are expected to remain in the doldrums. Continued attention should be paid to production resumptions in the Middle East, overseas aluminum ingot inventory trends, and macro news fluctuations.

SMM June 26 News: Metals market: Overnight, base metals on the domestic market broadly rose. SHFE tin rose 0.91%, SHFE copper rose 0.9%, and SHFE nickel rose 0.17%. SHFE lead rose 0.25%. SHFE zinc fell 0.12%, and SHFE aluminum fell 0.17%. Additionally, the most-traded alumina futures fell 0.78%, and the most-traded cast aluminum continuous contract fell 0.44%. Overnight, most ferrous metals fell. Iron ore fell 1.08%, rebar fell 0.61%, HRC fell 0.48%, and stainless steel rose 1.4%. Coking coal and coke: the most-traded coking coal contract fell 0.48%, and the most-traded coke contract fell 1%. Overnight LME base metals posted near across-the-board gains. LME copper rose 2.22%. LME aluminum rose 2.26%. LME lead edged lower. LME zinc rose 0.88%. LME tin rose 1.31%. LME nickel rose 0.42%. Overnight precious metals: COMEX gold rose 0.82%, and COMEX silver fell 0.34%. Overnight, SHFE gold rose 1.17%, and SHFE silver rose 1.24%. As of 7:09 a.m. on June 26, overnight closing quotes: Macro Front China: [Two departments: initially establish a clean, low-carbon, safe and efficient new-type energy system by 2030] The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) and the National Energy Administration issued the "15th Five-Year Plan for Building a New-Type Energy System." The main objectives are: initially establish a clean, low-carbon, safe and efficient new-type energy system by 2030. Raise overall energy production capacity to 5.8 billion tonnes of standard coal equivalent, comprehensively enhance the complementary and mutual support capabilities and security resilience of the power system, and achieve diversified and controllable energy imports; coal and oil consumption will peak, the share of non-fossil energy consumption will reach 25%, wind and solar installed capacity will exceed 50%, becoming the mainstay of installed power capacity, and non-fossil energy power generation will account for 50% of the total, becoming the dominant source of electricity; accelerate building a resilient, green, low-carbon, integrated, smart and efficient new-type energy infrastructure system and initially complete a new-type power system; achieve overall independent controllability of key technological equipment across the energy industry chain, and rank among the world's leading countries in energy technology innovation; accelerate the improvement of market and pricing mechanisms suited to the new-type energy system, and basically establish a unified national electricity market system. US dollar: The overnight US dollar index fell 0.11% to 101.46. As US data sent mixed signals and oil prices fell below pre-war levels, the decline in energy costs is expected to cool future inflation, and the dollar declined. (Jinshi Data APP) Driven by the Middle East conflict which pushed up energy prices, US inflation edged higher in May, with the annual PCE rate breaking above 4% for the first time in three years, potentially bringing the Fed closer to raising interest rates this year. The Commerce Department reported on Thursday that the US PCE price index rose 4.1% YoY in May, the first reading above 4.0% since April 2023. The US-led war against Iran pushed up oil prices, which in turn drove gasoline prices higher. Although crude oil and gasoline prices have pulled back in recent weeks after a fragile ceasefire was reached, economists expect inflation to remain elevated for some time. And even before the latest conflict, consumers were already grappling with higher prices triggered by Trump's sweeping import tariffs. The Fed left its benchmark rate unchanged in the 3.50%-3.75% range last week, but updated quarterly projections showed policymakers are expected to raise rates this year amid heightened inflation concerns. Financial markets are betting on a rate increase as early as September, potentially followed by another hike. According to CME's FedWatch tool: the probability of the Fed keeping rates unchanged in July is 69%, while the probability of a cumulative 25bp hike is 31%. The probability of the Fed holding rates steady by September is 36.6%, a cumulative 25bp hike 48.8%, and a cumulative 50bp hike 14.6%. (Jinshi Data APP) The Commerce Department reported on Thursday that the final estimate for Q1 GDP showed an annualized growth rate of 2.1%, revised up by 0.5 percentage point from the second estimate and far above economists' expectations. This final reading markedly outperformed the earlier second estimate of 1.6% and was also above the initial 2.0% pace published by the department. Markets had expected the final figure to be basically flat compared to the second estimate. According to the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), a sharp acceleration in business investment—likely fueled by an AI investment boom—was the key driver of the upward revision, with expanding exports and shrinking imports also providing a favorable backdrop. Yet the headline numbers also masked concerns over domestic demand. A key gauge of the economy's internal growth momentum—final sales to domestic private purchasers—was revised down by 0.7 percentage points from the second estimate to 1.7%; consumer spending also decelerated notably from Q4 2025 and from the previous estimate, underscoring pressure on household consumption. New York Fed President John Williams said the current monetary policy stance is effective in suppressing inflation, but numerous risks remain and rates are expected to stay unchanged in the near term. Williams said on Thursday that inflation is "undeniably high," and the current rate stance is "well positioned" to guide inflation back toward the 2% long-run target. He expects inflation to ease to 3.5% by the end of this year, then continue to decline along a "glide path" and reach the 2% target in 2028. (Wall Street CN) On the macro front: Today will see the release of the final University of Michigan consumer sentiment index for June and the final one-year inflation expectations for June, among others. Also to watch: FOMC permanent voter and New York Fed President Williams delivers a speech; 2027 FOMC voter and Chicago Fed President Goolsbee delivers a speech; 2026 FOMC voter and Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari delivers a speech. Crude oil: Overnight, both oil futures gained, with WTI rising 1.61% and Brent rising 1.65%. Oil prices, which had rapidly pulled back following the Iran ceasefire, came under renewed pressure from fresh developments in the Strait of Hormuz. As noted by Wall Street CN, reports said Iran proposed charging a transit fee for ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz, and US Secretary of State Rubio promptly responded that such a move would "set an unacceptable precedent." Notably, inventories in Cushing, Oklahoma, have fallen to about 19 million barrels, below the level considered the operational minimum. Nevertheless, prices remain far below pre-Iran-war levels, and near-dated futures contracts are still in bearish contango. (Wall Street CN) According to Xinhua News Agency, the United Nations maritime regulator, the International Maritime Organization (IMO), announced on Thursday that a ship was attacked in the Gulf of Oman the same day, and the organization decided to suspend evacuation operations for vessels stranded in the Strait of Hormuz to further verify whether related security measures remain effective. Market sources said: crude oil exports from the Persian Gulf rebounded to 75% of pre-war levels; over the three days ending Wednesday, the region exported 13 million barrels of crude. (Jinshi Data APP)

This week, the operating rate at China's leading downstream aluminum processing enterprises came in at 63%, down 0.4 percentage points MoM. Weighed down by the deepening seasonal off-season across the sector, downstream purchase willingness was broadly subdued, and operating rates across most segments remained under pressure. Primary aluminum alloy held steady at 59.4%, as enterprises mainly focused on executing existing long-term contracts, with no release of new spot orders.

[SMM Aluminum Weekly Review: Macro Situation Fluctuates, Domestic Aluminum Price Peak Under Pressure amid High Inventory]

June 25, 2026 Customs data showed that in May 2026, China’s aluminum wire exports totaled 63,850 mt, surging 131.4 percentage points MoM, a net increase of 36,260 mt from 27,590 mt in April. Monthly exports hit a new record high in nearly five years, far exceeding prior optimistic expectations. From January to May, China’s cumulative aluminum wire exports reached 170,600 mt, up 53.14% YoY from the same period in 2025. Aluminum Stranded Wire (HS 76149000): Single-Month Shipments Top 50,000 mt, Far Exceeding Expectations Exports under HS code 76149000 (stranded aluminum wire, not containing any steel core) were 50,224 mt in May, surging 222.7% MoM, a net increase of 34,659 mt from April's 15,565 mt. This result significantly exceeded the optimistic forecasts from the April analysis, with actual exports reaching 2.5 times the expected level. The share of pure aluminum stranded wire in total aluminum wire exports climbed further to 78.7% from 56.4% in April, marking a second consecutive month above the 50% threshold and indicating sustained stronger-than-expected demand outside China. The core drivers behind the surge in pure aluminum stranded wire exports were: first, the SHFE/LME aluminum price ratio remained elevated for an extended period, with overseas aluminum prices trading at a significant premium over domestic prices, which kept the export profit window open for a long time and encouraged traders to place concentrated orders; second, orders locked in earlier (March-April) based on the price spread between Chinese and overseas markets were cleared through customs en masse in May, creating a pulse-like spike in monthly export volumes. Aluminum Conductor Steel Reinforced (HS 76141000): Mild MoM Rebound to 13,600 mt Exports under HS code 76141000 (aluminum conductor steel reinforced) were 13,627 mt in May, up 13.3% MoM, a net increase of 1,603 mt from 12,024 mt in April. After the pullback that followed the March peak (18,162 mt), a mild rebound materialized in May. ACSR’s share of exports narrowed further to 21.3% from 43.6% in April, mainly because the massive expansion in pure aluminum stranded wire shipments shifted the proportions, while ACSR export volumes themselves remained relatively stable. Analysis of export destinations for pure aluminum stranded wire: East Asia's share jumped to the top, South Korea imported 17,800 mt in a single month Compared with April, the regional structure underwent significant changes: the East Asia region surged from third place (24.6%) in April to first place (43.0%), driven mainly by South Korea's imports soaring from 2,911 mt in April to 17,797 mt (up 511.4% MoM); Southeast Asia remained in second place, but its share edged down from 33.1% to 31.4%; Africa's share fell from 30.6% to 21.6%, while absolute volume increased from 4,189 mt to 10,131 mt, up 142%. The top five countries by MoM volume increase were South Korea (+14,887 mt), Mozambique (+6,515 mt), Vietnam (+4,966 mt), Malaysia (+3,776 mt), and Japan (+1,886 mt), together accounting for 92.5% of the MoM increase in pure aluminum stranded wire exports. South Korea's performance was especially striking: its monthly imports leaped from less than 3,000 mt to nearly 18,000 mt, representing 37.5% of total pure aluminum stranded wire exports in May, instantly becoming the largest single export destination. Export Province Rankings: Fujian, Jiangsu, and Shanghai Take the Top Three Spots In May, exports of pure aluminum stranded wire were concentrated mainly in coastal provinces such as Fujian, Shanghai, and Zhejiang. Fujian Province topped the list with nearly 20,000 mt of exports, almost entirely pure aluminum stranded wire (99.7%), serving as the core contributor to the surge in pure aluminum exports in May. Jiangsu Province was the largest exporter of steel-cored aluminum stranded wire (8,009 mt), while also recording substantial pure aluminum exports. Analysis of Export Destinations for Steel-Cored Aluminum Stranded Wire: Cambodia Tops the List, Saudi Arabia’s Surge In May, steel-cored aluminum stranded wire was exported to a total of 20 countries and regions, with extremely high export concentration: the top 15 destinations accounted for 11,716 mt, representing 99.4% of total exports. Unlike the explosive growth of all-aluminum stranded wire, exports of steel-cored aluminum stranded wire rebounded mildly by 13.3% MoM, maintaining a generally stable pattern. Notably, Saudi Arabia saw exports jump from just 15 mt in April to 1,866 mt in May (up 12,313% MoM), surging to second place, likely driven by concentrated deliveries from power grid expansion projects in the Middle East. Cambodia has ranked among the top export destinations for steel-cored aluminum stranded wire for several months, and remained firmly in first place in May with 2,003 mt. SMM Outlook: June Exports Remain Supported, with Significant Pullback Risk from July Onward Overall, aluminum wire exports hit a record 63,900 mt in May for a single month over the past five years, mainly driven by a concentrated surge in pure aluminum stranded wire during the window of favorable price spread between Chinese and overseas markets. However, recent industry feedback indicates that signals of an export turning point have already emerged. Order side: According to SMM’s communication with overseas traders and Chinese aluminum wire and cable manufacturers, new export orders for aluminum stranded wire have plummeted recently. The main reason is that overseas aluminum prices have fallen successively, narrowing the SHFE/LME aluminum price ratio. The profit window that previously drove exports is closing rapidly, with losses already occurring in some periods. It is learned that new orders were already very scarce last week, and there have been almost no new export orders this week. The few new orders placed earlier were mainly arbitrage orders by traders who locked in the price spread between Chinese and overseas markets in advance. Production schedule side: In terms of the export pace, enterprises in June are mainly producing previously scheduled orders, and orders on hand are sufficient to cover the entire month. June aluminum wire exports are expected to remain at the May level or edge up slightly, with limited downside room MoM. From July onward, as previously locked-in orders are gradually delivered, the impact of the gap in new orders will become apparent, and pure aluminum stranded wire exports are likely to decline significantly. If the SHFE/LME aluminum price ratio and the price spread between Chinese and overseas markets show no significant improvement in August-September, aluminum wire exports are expected to pull back to the level before the profit window opened.