[SMM Aluminum Flash] On August 14, LME aluminum inventory stood at 248,300 mt, down 1,700 mt, or 0.68%, from the previous day; over the past week, LME aluminum inventory fell by a total of 8,100.00 mt, or 3.16%; over the past month, LME aluminum inventory fell by a total of 34,800 mt, or 12.29%.

SMM August 14 News: Metals market: As of the midday close, most domestic base metals moved lower. SHFE copper fell 0.2%, SHFE aluminum fell 1.2%. SHFE lead fell 0.81%. SHFE zinc fell 0.51%. SHFE tin rose 0.17%. SHFE nickel fell 1.12%. In addition, the most-traded cast aluminum futures contract fell 1.43%, and the most-traded alumina contract edged lower. The most-traded lithium carbonate contract rose 2.23%. The most-traded silicon metal contract rose 1.63%. The most-traded polysilicon futures contract rose 1.27%. Ferrous metals mostly rose. Iron ore rose 0.42%, rebar rose 0.43%, and hot-rolled coil rose 0.71%. Stainless steel fell 1.97%. Coking coal and coke: the most-traded coking coal contract rose 1.25%, while the most-traded coke contract fell 0.29%. On the overseas base metals front, as of 11:39, LME base metals fell across the board. LME copper fell 0.32%, LME aluminum fell 0.23%, and LME lead fell 0.37%. LME zinc fell 0.45%. LME tin fell 0.24%. LME nickel fell 0.3%. In precious metals, as of 11:39, COMEX gold fell 0.9% and COMEX silver fell 1.16%. Domestic precious metals: SHFE gold fell 1.94%, and the most-traded SHFE silver contract fell 2.36%. In addition, as of the midday close, the most-traded platinum futures contract fell 2.21%, and the most-traded palladium futures contract fell 3.33%. As of the midday close, the most-traded European container shipping futures contract fell 1.3% to 1,593.5 points. As of 11:39 on August 14, midday quotes for selected futures: Spot and Fundamentals Platinum: On the spot side, mainstream platinum quotations are at a discount of 3-2 yuan/g against the PT2610 contract, accompanied by the clearing of some deeply discounted cargoes and the narrowing of import price spreads... Macro Front China: [PBOC reverse repo operations achieved a net injection of 348 billion yuan on the day and 250.5 billion yuan this week] The PBOC conducted 349 billion yuan of overnight reverse repos and 1 trillion yuan of outright reverse repos today. As 1 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repos and 1 trillion yuan of outright reverse repos matured today, the PBOC made a net injection of 348 billion yuan on the day. This week, the PBOC conducted 18 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repos, 349 billion yuan of overnight reverse repos and 1 trillion yuan of outright reverse repos. As 116.5 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repos and 1 trillion yuan of outright reverse repos matured this week, the PBOC made a net injection of 250.5 billion yuan for the week. (Jin10 Data App) US dollar: As of 11:39, the US dollar index fell 0.07% to 99.89. US July PPI data showed inflation was cooling, and along with falling oil prices, markets further added to bets that the US Fed will not hike rates next month. (Wallstreetcn) US July PPI data came in below expectations, helped by further declines in energy and food costs. The PPI report followed consumer price data—which showed inflation was slowing—further confirming signs that the energy shock from the early days of the war was continuing to fade. However, renewed Middle East tensions raised concerns about stubborn inflation. US Fed officials will also receive additional consumer and producer price data and another labour market report before their next policy decision in mid-September. For now, policymakers need to weigh persistent inflation pressures against the recent slowdown in hiring. Several PPI components are also closely watched by the US Fed because they feed into its preferred inflation measure—the personal consumption expenditures price index. These components released mixed signals. Portfolio management fees posted their largest increase in more than a year, hospital outpatient care costs also rose sharply, while physician services and hospital inpatient care prices were mild. (Jin10 Data App) According to CME FedWatch: at the US Fed's September meeting, the probabilities are no change (65.2%) and a cumulative 25bp hike (34.8%). At the US Fed's October meeting, they are no change (50.1%), a cumulative 25bp hike (41.8%), and a cumulative 50bp hike (8.1%). (Jin10 Data App) Other currencies: Speculative investors are increasingly betting that the Reserve Bank of Australia will raise rates again in November, as inflation remains above the central bank’s target. Swap market pricing currently implies around a 45% probability that the RBA will raise rates by 25bp by November, up from 38% before Tuesday’s RBA rate decision. The November 2026 interbank cash rate futures traded on the Australian Securities Exchange derivatives market saw trading activity jump on the day to the highest level in more than three months, signalling increased speculative interest. These bets suggest that the market increasingly doubts that the RBA's tightening cycle is over. Although policymakers kept rates unchanged this week, with inflation still above the RBA's 2%-3% target range, traders will continue to monitor upcoming price and labour market data for clues on whether another rate hike is needed this year. (Jin10 Data App) On the data front: Releases due today include China's July total electricity consumption YoY (TBD), China's July total electricity consumption (TBD), US July retail sales MoM, US August preliminary 1-year inflation expectations, US June business inventories MoM, US August preliminary University of Michigan consumer sentiment index, France July CPI MoM final, Eurozone Q2 GDP YoY revised, Eurozone Q2 seasonally adjusted employment QoQ final, Eurozone June seasonally adjusted trade balance, and Canada June wholesale sales MoM, among other data. In addition, China will open a new round of refined oil product price adjustment window (TBD), and the National Energy Administration will release total electricity consumption data around the 15th of each month (TBD). Crude oil: As of 11:39, both crude oil benchmarks edged up, with WTI up 0.09% and Brent up 0.06%. IEA and OPEC successively lowered demand expectations, while Iran-related tensions, though intense, did not escalate further, limiting oil price gains. The refined product market was under more severe pressure, as the US diesel crack spread approached $100 per barrel, near the peak levels seen in the early stages of the US-Iran conflict in March this year. US Energy Secretary Chris Wright said on Tuesday that crude oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz averaged about 9 million barrels per day over the past week, higher than most industry estimates, leaving considerable uncertainty over the size of the actual supply gap. Francisco Blanch, head of global research at Bank of America, said in a Bloomberg Television interview, “Unless the geopolitical situation improves, it is hard for me to see oil prices pulling back quickly. If inventories are depleted, price fluctuations will inevitably amplify sharply, and demand will be forced to contract.” (Wallstreetcn) Spot Market at a Glance: ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ►

[Liquidity Tightening Concerns Ease Marginally, Aluminum Prices Stay Under Pressure at Highs in Near Term] Overall, on the macro front, US PPI and core PPI for July both declined YoY, coming in below both expectations and previous readings. Inflationary pressure eased further, and market expectations for a US Fed rate hike in September were scaled back, marginally easing concerns over liquidity tightening. On the fundamentals front, aluminum ingot inventories continued to destock, but destocking was expected to slow down in the second half of the month. The pace of production resumptions at Middle Eastern aluminum smelters was faster than the market had previously expected, and the supply-tightness premium priced in earlier faced pressure to unwind. Although macro recovery and continued destocking in the first half of August supported stronger aluminum prices, market sentiment shifted, and aluminum prices are expected to remain under pressure at high levels in the near term, with upside room likely to be capped to some extent by production resumption expectations.

SMM August 14 news: On the metals market front: Overnight, base metals in both overseas and domestic markets broadly fell, with only LME copper, LME tin, and SHFE tin rising together. LME copper rose 0.18%, LME tin rose 0.52%, LME aluminum led losses with a 2.28% decline, SHFE nickel fell 0.88%, SHFE lead fell 0.81%, and the remaining metals saw modest fluctuations in their declines. The main alumina contract rose 0.26%, while the main cast aluminum contract fell 0.9%. Overnight, ferrous metals broadly rose, with stainless steel the only decliner, down 0.83%. Rebar, hot-rolled coil, and iron ore all gained around 0.4%. For coking coal and coke, coking coal rose 1.7%, and coke rose 0.55%. On the precious metals front, overnight COMEX gold fell 1.35%, and COMEX silver fell 1.7%. On the domestic front, SHFE gold fell 1.24%, and SHFE silver fell 1.48%. As of 6:38 on August 14, overnight closing prices: Macro Front On the domestic front: [China's New Round of Continuous Air Quality Improvement Action Plan Is Being Formulated] The State Council Information Office held a press conference today (13th) as part of the themed series "Getting Off to a Good Start in the 15th Five-Year Plan". At the briefing, it was noted that China's air pollution control achievements are encouraging, but there is still no room to relax or take a break, and patience and resolve must be maintained. At present, a new round of continuous air quality improvement action plans is being formulated at an accelerated pace, and the battle to defend blue skies will focus on being "higher, more accurate, and more scientific." (CCTV News) [National Carbon Emissions Trading Market Cumulative Trading Volume Exceeds 900 Million mt] Huang Runqiu, Minister of Ecology and Environment, said at the press conference on the themed series "Getting Off to a Good Start in the 15th Five-Year Plan" held by the State Council Information Office on August 13 that as of the end of July, cumulative trading volume in the national carbon emissions trading market had exceeded 930 million mt, which has effectively promoted green and low-carbon transformation while driving low-cost carbon reduction across industries. (Xinhua News Agency) [Shanghai: Promote the Issuance of "Computing Power Vouchers," "Model Vouchers," and "Corpus Vouchers" to Lower the Cost of Using Digital Factors such as Public Data, Computing Power, Models, and Corpora] Shanghai issued the "Shanghai Action Plan for Implementing the Several Measures on Further Promoting Private Investment Development." It mentions carrying out computing power subsidies in accordance with laws and regulations, supporting private enterprises in renting intelligent computing resources for R&D training and application of large models, and encouraging universities, research institutions, and state-owned enterprises to use data storage and computing power resources built by various types of business entities, including private enterprises. It will publish and dynamically update a public data openness list, support private enterprises in conducting deep development and scenario-based utilization of specific public data, promote the issuance of "computing power vouchers," "model vouchers," and "corpus vouchers," and reduce the cost of using digital factors such as public data, computing power, models, and corpora. It will cultivate benchmark enterprises and platform enterprises for urban digital transformation, guide private enterprises to participate in digital transformation project construction and scenario operations in areas such as transportation, logistics, and public services. It will encourage private enterprises to build new-type infrastructure demonstration projects such as blockchain applications and large-scale robotics applications. (Jinshi Data APP) On the US dollar front: As of the overnight close, the US dollar index fell 0.01% to 99.96. The US July PPI data came in below expectations, helped by further declines in energy and food costs. The PPI report followed consumer price data, which showed inflation is slowing, further confirming signs that the energy shock from the early stage of the war is continuing to fade. However, the recent re-escalation of Middle East tensions has raised concerns about stubborn inflation. Fed officials will receive additional consumer and producer price data as well as another labour market report before their next policy decision in mid-September. At present, policymakers need to balance persistent inflation pressures against a recent slowdown in hiring. Several PPI components are also particularly watched by the Fed because they feed into its preferred inflation measure—the personal consumption expenditures price index. The signals released by these components were mixed. Portfolio management fees recorded their largest increase in more than a year, hospital outpatient care costs also rose sharply, while prices for physician services and hospital inpatient care were mild. (Jinshi Data APP) Market pricing showed an increase in bets that the Fed would keep interest rates unchanged in September. The probability that the Fed would keep interest rates in the 3.50%-3.75% range in September was around 65%, up from around 60% before the PPI report. (Jinshi Data APP) Fed official Hammack said in the latest remarks: "The Fed must raise interest rates now because current policy is not restrictive, and inflation has risen amid recent shocks. Excessively rapid growth could put additional pressure on prices. Rate hikes may bring pain, but we cannot allow economic and investment growth to become so rapid that the economy overheats. Current inflation is broad-based, not limited to certain sectors. The Fed must be held accountable for inflation data, which is very important." (Jinshi Data APP) According to CME "FedWatch": The probability that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged in September is 65.2%, and the probability of a cumulative 25 bps rate hike is 34.8%. The probability that the Fed will keep rates unchanged in October is 50.1%, the probability of a cumulative 25 bps rate hike is 41.8%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 bps rate hike is 8.1%. (Jinshi Data APP) On the macro front: Data due for release today include China's July total electricity consumption YoY (TBD), China's July total electricity consumption (TBD), the US July retail sales MoM, the US August preliminary one-year inflation expectations, the US June business inventories MoM, the US August preliminary University of Michigan consumer sentiment index, France's final July CPI MoM, the Eurozone Q2 GDP YoY revision, the Eurozone Q2 seasonally adjusted employment QoQ final, the Eurozone June seasonally adjusted trade balance, and Canada's June wholesale sales MoM. In addition, a new round of price adjustment windows for domestic refined oil products will open (TBD), and the National Energy Administration will release total electricity consumption data around the 15th of each month (TBD). On the crude oil front: As of the overnight close, oil prices in both markets fell together, with WTI crude down 2.47% and Brent crude down 2.23%, both notching a second consecutive decline. According to the Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting, a spokesman for Iran's Joint Military Command said: "Without approval, no ship can safely pass through the Strait of Hormuz. Any ship transiting the Strait of Hormuz must obtain Iran's permission, and Iran is in full control of the Strait of Hormuz. Iranian forces are monitoring US movements in the region. Trump's claims about controlling the Strait are lies and merely a display of his military's helplessness. From past to present, the US military has long had a full taste of the strength and steadfastness of the Iranian nation. The US keeps seeking to do evil and create instability in the region, and its groundless threats, in the face of the unprecedented comprehensive readiness of heroic Islamic fighters in the armed forces, will only appear even more helpless and powerless. Iran's armed forces will not hesitate in the slightest in defending the nation's rights, national sovereignty, the ideals of the Islamic Revolution, and our dear country, and will respond to any type and any level of threat with heavier and fiercer responses than before." (Jinshi Data APP) Iraq's Oil Marketing Company said that a major Abu Dhabi energy company is among the companies that purchase its crude and ship cargoes out through the Strait of Hormuz. Earlier reports said the trading arm of Abu Dhabi National Oil Company moved cargoes through the Strait of Hormuz to offer Iraqi crude supplies to Asian buyers, a practice that typically involves tankers switching off their transponders to avoid detection, ensuring Middle Eastern oil continues to flow to global markets. Ali Nizar, director general of Iraq's Oil Marketing Company, said Iraq's oil exports through the Strait of Hormuz jumped to about 2 million barrels per day this month. While that is up from levels in the months after the start of the Iran war, it remains below the country's total exports of about 3.4 million barrels per day before the conflict. (Jinshi Data APP)

SMM News, August 13: PV Aluminum Extrusion: This week, the operating rate of surveyed PV aluminum frame enterprises remained stable. Some leading PV frame enterprises reported that their current orders were ample and sufficient to keep production running at high levels until month-end. Downstream, PV module enterprises did not change their procurement strategies because of the recent drift higher in aluminum prices and continued to purchase as needed. According to SMM, frame enterprises had no plans to adjust processing fees in the short term. At the current stage, supply-side and demand-side fundamentals in the industry were relatively balanced, so the operating rate of PV aluminum frame enterprises would continue to run at a steady pace. Raw Material Prices: During the period (August 10-13, 2026), the weekly average SMM A00 aluminum ingot price was 24,145 yuan/mt, up 2.0% from the previous weekly average price. Overall, macro front, the YoY growth rates of US July CPI and core CPI slowed to 3.4% and 2.5%, respectively, both in line with market expectations. The mild pullback in inflation eased concerns about further aggressive rate hikes by the US Fed, weakened the short-term momentum for US Treasury yields to shoot up, and eased macro liquidity pressure. Combined with lingering differences over the Middle East situation, these factors provided staged support for aluminum prices. Fundamentals side, aluminum ingot inventory continued to destock, but destocking was expected to slow down in the second half of the month. Supply side outside China, the UAE's EGA disclosed progress on the resumption of production at the AlTaweelah aluminum smelter. Currently, 18% of the plant's 1,262 electrolysis cells have been restarted, and the pace of the production resumption was faster than the market had previously expected. The previously traded supply tightness premium faced give-back pressure. Although macro recovery and continued destocking supported higher aluminum prices in the first half of August, due to a shift in market sentiment, aluminum prices are expected to be under pressure at high levels in the short term, and upside room will be suppressed to some extent by production resumption expectations. Next week, the most-traded SHFE aluminum contract is expected to trade in the range of 23,600-24,450 yuan/mt; LME aluminum is expected to trade in the range of $3,180-3,330/mt. Going forward, close attention should be paid to the progress of production resumptions in the Middle East and developments in new project commissioning plans.

[SMM Aluminum Price Weekly Review: Mild Pullback in Inflation Eases Macro Anxiety, Production Resumptions Accelerate and Market Sentiment Turns]

SMM, August 13: Metals market: As of the midday close, domestic base metals were mostly lower. SHFE copper fell 0.5%, SHFE aluminum fell 0.9%, SHFE lead rose 0.63%, SHFE zinc fell 0.27%, SHFE tin fell 0.86%, and SHFE nickel fell 0.16%. In addition, the most-traded cast aluminum futures contract fell 1.33%, the most-traded alumina contract fell 1.62%, the most-traded lithium carbonate contract was flat at 148,840 yuan/mt, the most-traded silicon metal contract fell 0.64%, and the most-traded polysilicon futures contract rose 0.75%. Ferrous metals all fell. Iron ore fell 0.14%, rebar fell 0.5%, hot-rolled coil fell 0.37%, and stainless steel fell 0.93%. Coking coal and coke: the most-traded coking coal contract fell 1.27%, and the most-traded coke contract fell 0.73%. Overseas base metals: as of 11:45, LME metals were nearly all lower. LME copper fell 0.2%, LME aluminum fell 0.89%, LME zinc fell 0.4%, LME tin fell 0.18%, LME nickel fell 0.59%, and LME lead rose 0.21%. Precious metals: as of 11:45, COMEX gold rose 0.02%, and COMEX silver fell 0.08%. Domestic precious metals: SHFE gold rose 0.34%, and the most-traded SHFE silver contract rose 0.28%. Additionally, as of the midday close, the most-traded platinum futures contract fell 0.52%, and the most-traded palladium futures contract fell 0.57%. As of the midday close, the most-traded European container shipping futures contract rose 1.75% to 1,630 points. As of 11:45 on August 13, midday quotes for selected futures: Spot and fundamentals Copper: Today, Guangdong #1 copper cathode spot prices against the front-month contract: high-quality copper was quoted at a discount of 20 yuan/mt, down 40 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; standard-quality copper was quoted at a discount of 120 yuan/mt, down 40 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; and SX-EW copper was quoted at a discount of 200 yuan/mt, down 60 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The average price of Guangdong #1 copper cathode was 108,250 yuan/mt, down 160 yuan/mt from the previous trading day, and the average price of SX-EW copper was 108,100 yuan/mt, down 200 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Spot market: Guangdong inventories fell for two consecutive days, with arrivals declining and warehouse withdrawals increasing slightly... Macro front China: [China Is Formulating a New Round of Action Plans for Continuous Air Quality Improvement] The State Council Information Office held a themed press conference today (13th) in the series "Opening and Starting the '15th Five-Year Plan'." At the press conference, it was noted that China has made gratifying progress in air pollution control, but there is still no room for complacency or letting up; patience and resolve must be maintained. Currently, a new round of action plans for the continuous improvement of air quality is being expedited, and the battle to keep skies blue will focus on being "higher, more precise, and more scientific." (CCTV News) [Cumulative Trading Volume of the National Carbon Emissions Trading Market Tops 900 Million mt] Huang Runqiu, Minister of Ecology and Environment, said at the "Launching the 15th Five-Year Plan" press conference series held by the State Council Information Office on August 13 that by the end of July, cumulative trading volume in the national carbon emissions trading market had exceeded 930 million mt, effectively promoting the green and low-carbon transition while driving low-cost carbon reduction across industries. (Xinhua News Agency) [Shanghai: Promote Issuance of "Computing Power Vouchers," "Model Vouchers," and "Corpus Vouchers" to Reduce the Cost of Using Digital Factors Such as Public Data, Computing Power, Models, and Corpora] Shanghai issued the "Shanghai Action Plan for Implementing the Several Measures on Further Promoting Private Investment Development." The plan states that Shanghai will provide computing power subsidies in accordance with laws and regulations, support private enterprises in renting intelligent computing resources for the R&D, training, and application of large models, and encourage universities, research institutions, and state-owned enterprises to use data storage and computing power resources built by various market entities, including private enterprises. It will publish and dynamically update the public data opening list, support private enterprises in the in-depth development and scenario-based use of specific public data, and promote the issuance of "computing power vouchers," "model vouchers," and "corpus vouchers" to reduce the cost of using digital factors such as public data, computing power, models, and corpora. It will cultivate benchmark and platform enterprises for urban digital transformation, and guide private enterprises to participate in the construction and scenario operation of digital transformation projects in areas such as transportation, logistics, and public services. It also encourages private enterprises to build demonstration projects of new-type infrastructure such as blockchain applications and large-scale robot applications. (Jin10 Data APP) [PBOC Reverse Repo Operations Post Net Withdrawal of CNY1 Billion on the Day] The PBOC did not conduct reverse repo operations today, as CNY1 billion in 7-day reverse repos matured, resulting in a net withdrawal of CNY1 billion on the day. On the Dollar Side: As of 11:45, the US dollar index was up 0.01% at 100. US core inflation in July was mild, which likely eased pressure on the US Fed to raise interest rates. Data released by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics on Wednesday showed that, excluding volatile food and energy categories, core CPI rose 0.2% MoM in July. The YoY increase was 2.5%, matching the slowest pace since March 2021. Overall, July CPI rose 0.1% MoM and 3.4% YoY. This report indicated that the energy price shock from the Iran war continued to fade in July. As the US Fed discusses whether to raise rates at its September meeting, these figures may give the US Fed more room to weigh inflation pressures against the recent slowdown in hiring. Before the September meeting, policymakers will also see more reports on employment and inflation, while investors will closely watch a speech that Fed Chairman Warsh is expected to deliver at the annual Jackson Hole symposium later this month. US stock index futures rose, while US Treasury yields were basically flat. Investors lowered their bets on a September rate hike. According to CME "FedWatch": the probability that the US Fed will keep rates unchanged by September is 59.9%, and the probability of a cumulative 25bp rate hike is 40.1%. By October, the probability that the US Fed will keep rates unchanged is 45.3%, the probability of a cumulative 25bp rate hike is 44.9%, and the probability of a cumulative 50bp rate hike is 9.8%. (Jin10 Data App) A CITIC Securities research report said that US July CPI was fully in line with expectations, core inflation remained mild, and second-round inflation effects were modest, which helped further ease market concerns about inflation risks. We continue to believe that US inflation is not sticky, and we expect headline CPI YoY growth to generally continue its mild slowdown trend in Q3 and hit bottom in September, then rebound slightly in Q4 this year and decline rapidly in March next year. We still expect the US Fed to keep rates unchanged for the whole year, and there is further room for downward revision in rate hike expectations priced into derivatives markets. A CICC research report said that US July CPI rose 0.1% MoM on a seasonally adjusted basis and 3.4% YoY, while core CPI rose 0.2% MoM and 2.5% YoY, all in line with market expectations. Energy prices continued to pull back, but international oil prices have risen again since August, increasing uncertainty about future energy prices. On the core inflation front, goods were strong while services were weak; in particular, prices of information technology products such as computers and software continued to rise, reflecting that the supply-demand mismatch caused by AI capital spending expansion is gradually transmitting to the consumer side. We believe US inflation may have entered a new phase, with its drivers gradually shifting from supply shocks such as tariffs and oil prices to demand expansion from AI investment, and the duration of inflation may be correspondingly prolonged. For the US Fed, this data eased near-term pressure to raise rates, but compared with supply-driven inflation, demand-pull inflation requires more attention from policymakers. Other currencies: RBA Assistant Governor Kent said that Australian monetary policy is currently restrictive, the three consecutive rate hikes early this year are now weighing on the economy, and the stronger Australian dollar has further reinforced this effect. He said: "Evidence suggests that monetary policy in Australia is somewhat restrictive, and the tightening earlier this year is working. Borrowing costs have risen, mortgage repayments have increased, conditions in the established housing market have weakened, and the Australian dollar has also appreciated year-to-date." He said aggregate demand growth appears to be slowing, adding that this is what policymakers want to see and is necessary to bring inflation back to target. (Jin10 Data APP) Data Front: Today will bring the US 10-year Treasury auction high yield and bid-to-cover ratio for Aug 12, US initial jobless claims for the week ending Aug 8, US July PPI y/y and m/m, UK Q2 GDP y/y preliminary, UK June three-month GDP m/m, UK June manufacturing production m/m, UK June seasonally adjusted goods trade balance, UK June industrial production m/m, and Eurozone June industrial production m/m, among others. In addition, JD.com will hold its Q2 earnings call; 2026 FOMC voter and Cleveland Fed President Hammack will speak, and 2027 FOMC voter and Richmond Fed President Barkin will speak on the economic outlook. Crude Oil: As of 11:45, both benchmark oil prices fell, with WTI down 0.96% and Brent down 0.82%. Oil prices edged down as traders waited for signs of progress on the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. On the Middle East front, there has been almost no sign of progress on the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. US President Trump said the United States has "complete control" over the waterway. The International Energy Agency (IEA) said that as the US-Iran war continues, the global oil market faces a supply shortfall of 1.8 million barrels per day this quarter, more than double its earlier forecast; the 2026 oil supply gap could reach its largest level in five years. According to the American Automobile Association, gasoline and diesel prices in the US have never been this high at this time of year. (Jin10 Data APP) Spot Market at a Glance: ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ►

[CPI in Line with Expectations Eases Macro Anxiety; Sustained Destocking Provides Price Support] Based on a comprehensive assessment, on the macro front, US July CPI and core CPI YoY growth rates slowed to 3.4% and 2.5%, respectively, both in line with market expectations. The mild inflation pullback eased market concerns about further aggressive rate hikes by the US Fed; short-term upward momentum in US Treasury yields weakened, and macro liquidity pressure eased somewhat, providing support for aluminum prices at this stage. The fundamental supply gap persisted, and aluminum ingot inventories continued destocking. On the supply side outside China, UAE's EGA disclosed the progress of production resumption at the AlTaweelah aluminum smelter. Currently, 18% of the plant's 1,262 pots have been restarted, and the pace of production resumption has been faster than earlier market expectations. The supply-tightness premium priced in earlier now faces retracement pressure. In the near term, aluminum prices are expected to consolidate on a strong note, but upside room will be somewhat capped by production resumption expectations.

SMM, August 13: Metals: Overnight, base metals in both domestic and overseas markets showed mixed performance, with LME aluminum leading losses by falling 1.46%, SHFE lead leading gains with a 0.57% rise, SHFE aluminum falling 0.62%, and the remaining metals all edging down slightly. The most-active alumina contract fell 0.81%, and cast aluminum fell 1.06%. Overnight, ferrous metals broadly fell, with only iron ore rising, by 0.42%. Stainless steel, rebar, and hot-rolled coil all saw modest declines; in the coking coal and coke segment, coking coal fell 1.08% and coke fell 0.47%. In precious metals, overnight COMEX gold rose 0.63% and posted a four-day winning streak, while COMEX silver rose 0.92%. In China, SHFE gold rose 0.36% and SHFE silver rose 0.63%, both notching a seven-day winning streak. Overnight closing quotes as of 6:37 on August 13: Macro Front China: [PBOC: Timely Plan and Introduce Practical and Effective Incremental Policies and Strengthen Counter-Cyclical Adjustment] The PBOC released its Q2 2026 monetary policy implementation report. It will promptly plan and introduce pragmatic and effective incremental policies, strengthen counter-cyclical adjustment, step up efforts to expand domestic demand and optimize supply, and promote sustained, higher-quality and improving economic development. It will unswervingly follow the path of financial development with Chinese characteristics, further deepen financial reform and high-standard opening up, accelerate the building of a strong financial sector, improve the central bank system, build a scientific and sound monetary policy system and a comprehensive macroprudential management framework, and smooth the monetary policy transmission mechanism. US Dollar: As of the overnight close, the US dollar index rose 0.15% to 99.97. US core inflation in July was mild, which likely eased pressure on the Fed to raise interest rates. Data released by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics on Wednesday showed that core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy categories, rose 0.2% MoM in July. The YoY increase was 2.5%, matching the slowest pace since March 2021. Overall, July CPI rose 0.1% MoM and 3.4% YoY. The report indicated that the energy-price shock from the Iran war continued to fade in July. As the Fed discusses whether to raise interest rates at its September meeting, the data may give the Fed more room to balance inflation pressures against the recent slowdown in hiring. Before the September meeting, policymakers will also see more reports on employment and inflation, while investors will closely watch a speech by Fed Chairman Warsh, expected later this month at the annual Jackson Hole symposium. US stock index futures moved higher, and Treasury yields were basically flat. Investors reduced bets on a September rate hike. (Jinshi Data App) CITIC Securities said in a research note that US July CPI was fully in line with expectations, core inflation remained mild, and second-round inflation effects were subdued, which helped further ease market concerns about inflation risks. The firm still believes US inflation is not sticky and expects headline CPI YoY to broadly continue its mild slowdown in Q3 and bottom in September, before rebounding slightly in Q4 this year and falling rapidly next March. It still expects the Fed to stay on hold throughout this year, and there is still room for the rate-hike expectations priced into derivatives markets to be revised further downward. (Jinshi Data App) CICC said in a research note that US July CPI rose 0.1% MoM seasonally adjusted and 3.4% YoY, while core inflation rose 0.2% MoM and 2.5% YoY, all in line with market expectations. Energy prices continued to fall, but international oil prices have moved higher again since August, adding uncertainty to future energy prices. On the core inflation front, goods were firm and services were soft; in particular, prices of information technology products such as computers and software continued to rise, reflecting that the supply-demand mismatch brought by AI capital expenditure expansion is gradually being transmitted to the consumer side. We believe US inflation may have entered a new phase, with its drivers gradually shifting from supply shocks such as tariffs and oil prices to demand expansion from AI investment, which may extend the persistence of inflation. For the Fed, this data has eased near-term pressure to raise rates, but compared with supply-driven inflation, demand-driven inflation requires more attention from policymakers. (Jinshi Data App) J.P. Morgan Asset Management’s chief global strategist said the Fed should keep interest rates unchanged and expects inflation to gradually decline as mounting evidence shows that a sustained wage-price spiral will not form. David Kelly said after the July CPI release, “The Fed absolutely should stay on hold, and I actually think they will.” The report showed that US core inflation remained mild in July, and after the release, Treasuries extended gains. Kelly noted that three forces are working together to drive a clear cooling in inflation: tariff costs will decline on a YoY basis; oil prices will fall as the market turns optimistic that the Iran war will end; and wage growth continues to lag inflation. He added that the last point weakens the momentum needed for price pressures to form a self-reinforcing cycle and also means the Fed does not need to raise rates to contain inflation. Kelly noted that financial markets are currently highly leveraged, and even a small rate hike could trigger asset repricing. (Jinshi Data App) According to CME FedWatch: the probability that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged by September is 59.9%, and the probability of a cumulative 25 bp rate hike is 40.1%. The probability that the Fed will keep rates unchanged by October is 45.3%, the probability of a cumulative 25 bp rate hike is 44.9%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 bp rate hike is 9.8%. (Jinshi Data App) Macro Front: Today will bring data including the US August 12 10-year Treasury auction high yield and bid-to-cover ratio, US initial jobless claims for the week ending August 8, US July PPI YoY, US July PPI MoM, UK Q2 GDP YoY preliminary, UK June three-month GDP MoM, UK June manufacturing output MoM, UK June seasonally adjusted goods trade balance, UK June industrial output MoM, and eurozone June industrial output MoM. In addition, JD.com will hold its Q2 earnings call; 2026 FOMC voting member and Cleveland Fed President Hammack will speak; and 2027 FOMC voting member and Richmond Fed President Barkin will speak on the economic outlook. Crude Oil: Overnight, both oil benchmarks fell, with US crude down 0.75% and Brent down 0.4%. Oil prices edged down after five straight sessions of gains, as traders awaited signs of progress in reopening the Strait of Hormuz. WTI crude fell below $82 a barrel after rallying 11% over the previous five sessions; Brent briefly fell below $87. On the Middle East front, there were almost no signs of progress in reopening the Strait of Hormuz, and US President Trump said the US has “full control” over the waterway. The International Energy Agency (IEA) said that as the US-Iran war continues, the global oil market faces a supply shortfall of 1.8 million barrels per day this quarter, more than double its previous forecast; the 2026 oil supply gap could be the largest in five years. According to the American Automobile Association (AAA), gasoline and diesel prices in the US have never been this high at this time of year. (Jinshi Data App) Satellite imagery showed that very large crude carriers docked at the Juaymah terminal near Ras Tanura, Saudi Arabia’s main export port on the Persian Gulf, for the first time in weeks, indicating that Saudi Arabia is working to maintain crude exports. However, due to the Iran war, the situation in the Strait of Hormuz and threats from Houthi forces, shipping activity at Saudi ports remains affected. As the world’s largest oil exporter, Saudi Arabia has recently shifted some crude transport to the Red Sea port of Yanbu and is exporting to the Mediterranean via the SUMED pipeline. At the same time, activity at Yanbu port has declined from earlier, with only three tankers currently observed at berth, capable of carrying about 3.4 million barrels of crude. Analysts believe that Saudi export routes are shifting from the traditional route to Asian markets via the Bab el-Mandeb Strait toward an alternative route that runs north through the Red Sea and connects to the Suez Canal, in order to reduce regional security risks. Because some tankers have turned off their automatic identification systems and satellite observations have gaps, the actual scale of Saudi crude loadings remains difficult to fully confirm. (Jinshi Data App) Russia’s July crude production was nearly 1 million bpd below its OPEC+ quota, because Ukraine has been attacking Russian oil infrastructure almost every day. According to OPEC’s monthly report, Russia’s average daily crude output last month was 8.887 million barrels. Although this was only 6,000 bpd lower than the revised June average, July’s daily average output was clearly below Russia’s 9.824 million barrel monthly target under its agreement with allies. The data came as the Russian oil industry faces continued attacks from Ukraine. Last month, Kyiv shifted targets from refineries to tankers and other facilities, with the focus of attacks constantly changing, threatening Russia’s crude processing volumes and exports while the global energy market was already under pressure from the Middle East conflict. (Jinshi Data App) The latest IEA monthly report showed that, due to the rekindling of the Middle East conflict and disruptions to maritime transport, the global oil market is currently facing a supply shortfall of about 1.8 million barrels per day, and the IEA has doubled its Q3 oil supply shortfall forecast and expects the full-year 2026 gap could be the largest in five years. Since the conflict broke out, global observed oil inventories have fallen by 410 million barrels, including a decline of 69 million barrels in July alone. Meanwhile, the IEA has raised its forecast for the decline in global oil demand in 2026 by 510,000 bpd to 1.6 million barrels per day, implying that global oil demand this year will see its largest annual decline since 2020. But even with demand suppressed by high oil prices, supply losses continue to keep inventories under pressure. (Wallstreetcn)

SMM News on August 12: Metals market: As of the midday close, base metals in the domestic market rose almost across the board. SHFE copper rose 0.27%, and SHFE aluminum rose 0.93%. SHFE lead rose 0.25%. SHFE zinc rose 0.7%. SHFE tin rose 1.44%. SHFE nickel fell 0.16%. In addition, the most-traded cast aluminum futures contract rose 0.74%, and the most-traded alumina contract rose 0.93%. The most-traded lithium carbonate contract rose 2.97%. The most-traded silicon metal contract edged up. The most-traded polysilicon futures contract rose 3.69%. Ferrous metals all rose. Iron ore rose 0.28%, rebar rose 0.37%, and hot-rolled coil rose 0.34%. Stainless steel rose 0.24%. For coking coal and coke: the most-traded coking coal contract rose 2.17%, and the most-traded coke contract rose 1.75%. Overseas base metals: as of 11:46, LME metals rose across the board. LME copper rose 0.27%, and LME tin rose 1.14%. LME zinc rose 0.5%. Gains in LME aluminum, LME lead, and LME nickel were all within 0.3%. Precious metals: as of 11:46, COMEX gold rose 0.54%, and COMEX silver rose 1.12%. Domestic precious metals: SHFE gold rose 0.69%, and the most-traded SHFE silver contract rose 1.22%. In addition, as of the midday close, the most-traded platinum futures contract fell 0.18%, and the most-traded palladium futures contract fell 1.09%. As of the midday close, the most-traded European container shipping contract rose 1.44% to 1,585.5 points. As of 11:46 on August 12, midday moves in some futures: Spot and Fundamentals Aluminum: Today, futures continued to surge, while the spot market in South China faced pressure from the “three mountains.” First, high absolute prices combined with high premiums in reality prompted suppliers to rush to sell more to cash out... Macro front China: [PBOC reverse repo operations recorded a net withdrawal of 5 billion yuan on the day] The PBOC conducted no reverse repo operations today. As 5 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repos matured today, it recorded a net withdrawal of 5 billion yuan on the day. [Guangdong power load hit a new high for the fourth time this year] At 13:47 on August 11, power load on the Guangdong power grid hit a new high for the fourth time this year, reaching 175.7 million kW, up 6.53% YoY. At present, Guangdong’s power supply is stable and orderly. On the same day, loads in cities including Yangjiang, Shantou, Jieyang, and Chaozhou within Guangdong Province hit record highs. ​​​(Guangdong Fabu) [C919 domestically produced large aircraft officially began operating international commercial routes] Starting today (the 12th), Air China’s Beijing–Ulaanbaatar route to the capital of Mongolia will be operated by the domestically produced C919 large aircraft, marking the official launch of international scheduled commercial route operations for the domestically produced large aircraft. (CCTV News) US dollar: As of 11:46, the US dollar index rose 0.05% to 99.87. The market awaits the upcoming US July CPI data, hoping to find clues on the Fed's rate path. According to CME "Fed Watch": the probability that the Fed keeps rates unchanged in September is 52.0%, and the probability of a cumulative 25bp hike is 48.0%. The probability that the Fed keeps rates unchanged in October is 38.7%, a cumulative 25bp hike is 49.0%, and a cumulative 50bp hike is 12.2%. (Jinshi Data APP) The Wall Street Journal reporter Nick Timiraos said that the market will focus on the MoM change in the July inflation data to be released on Wednesday, as an increasing number of FOMC members indicate that inflation readings in the coming months will determine whether they believe the forecast of "inflation pulling back to 2% over the next two years" remains achievable without further rate hikes. Meanwhile, the Fed's new chair Warsh recently dismissed this framework of linking policy-sensitive forecast revisions to high-frequency data. He previously stated that he does not believe the Fed's current "data-dependent" policy has much practical value. Furthermore, Nick added that the working group established by Warsh seems in part to help construct a framework to replace the old one. However, until the new framework is clear, the old framework appears to remain in operation. Glenmede strategists said regarding the US July CPI that investors are anticipating another relatively mild inflation report, with headline CPI expected to rise 3.4% YoY, while core price pressures remain manageable. As US-Iran tensions escalate, oil prices rose further in July, and the energy sector could once again bring pressure. However, the market reaction this time has been more stable, thanks to proactive measures and strategic reserve releases that maintained oil supply stability. The Fed has ample time before its next meeting to assess two inflation reports, giving it more time to evaluate whether energy pressures remain contained or begin to broaden, a distinction that could well influence future policy direction. Other currencies: According to foreign media reports, yen traders are ramping up options market activity ahead of key US inflation data, and amid a lack of consensus on the yen's future direction, they are using derivatives to enhance trading flexibility. The one-week implied volatility for USD/JPY rose for a second straight session on Wednesday, after the gauge had declined for five consecutive sessions. The reason was that traders were positioning ahead of the release of the US inflation report. The data was expected to influence the US Fed's monetary policy outlook and the US dollar's trajectory. Additionally, volatility in longer-dated options also edged up. The rise in volatility reflected a divergence in market views. For short tenors, the market remained concerned about the possibility of joint US-Japan intervention in the foreign exchange market, so USD/JPY put options continued to trade at a premium over call options, showing that investors were seeking protection against a sudden drop in the exchange rate. However, over longer tenors, investors continued to buy call options to bet on a renewed rally in USD/JPY. (Jin10 Data APP) Data-wise: Figures to be released today include the US July unadjusted CPI YoY, US July seasonally adjusted CPI MoM, US July seasonally adjusted core CPI MoM, US July unadjusted core CPI YoY, and Germany's July CPI MoM final reading. In addition, Tencent will hold its Q2 earnings call, MSCI will announce its August index review, the EIA will release its monthly Short-Term Energy Outlook, the IEA will publish its monthly Oil Market Report, and OPEC will release its monthly Oil Market Report (the specific release times for the monthly reports are to be determined, typically published around 18-21 Beijing Time). Crude oil: As of 11:46, both benchmarks rose, with WTI up 1% and Brent up 0.92%. Uncertainty over the US-Iran deal outlook supported prices. Iran’s state television (IRIB), citing an advisor to the Supreme Leader, reported: The Strait of Hormuz will remain closed until relevant conditions are met. (Jin10 Data APP) Iran's Oil Minister Mohsen Paknejad stated on the 11th that Iran was repairing natural gas production facilities damaged by the war, with daily capacity planned to rebound to 95 million m³ by the end of September. Paknejad said that reconstruction work on four damaged gas processing facilities was progressing rapidly, contractors had commenced work, and completion was anticipated ahead of schedule, restoring pre-war capacity. Earlier reports indicated that Iran's daily natural gas production had decreased by about 230 million m³ since the US and Israel launched military operations against Iran. (Jin10 Data APP) The latest Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) indicated that, due to persistently severe restrictions on crude oil transport through the Strait of Hormuz, the degree of global oil supply disruption was greater than previously expected, prompting the EIA to raise its future oil price forecasts. The EIA projects that the 2026 Brent spot price will average $87/bbl, up from the prior forecast of $82/bbl ; and that the Q3 2026 Brent average will be about $85/bbl, with prices in the coming months largely sustaining levels seen in the first week of August. EIA says its latest forecast assumes that recent threats to vessels carrying Saudi crude through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait have not caused additional production halts, and severe shipping restrictions in the Strait of Hormuz will persist into August . EIA expects that most Middle Eastern crude oil production will return close to pre-conflict average levels by early 2027. However, some supply disruptions are expected to persist until the end of 2027, at a scale of around 600,000 barrels per day. The average price for 2027 is forecast at $69/barrel, up from $65/barrel previously. (Wallstreetcn) Additionally, Russia has started importing gasoline from the distant Indian market, after Ukrainian attacks on Russian refineries caused a severe domestic fuel supply shortage. According to shipping data provider Kpler, this marks the first time Russia has imported motor gasoline from a South Asian country. Kpler said the first gasoline cargo arrived on August 5, and more shipments may arrive in Russia in the future. These fuel volumes were shipped via a series of tankers linked to Russia, and were transshipped near Egyptian waters before heading to Russia. Kpler's chief analyst Sumit Ritolia said, "The emergence of Indian gasoline supply is particularly noteworthy." He said these cargoes from India, along with continued gasoline imports from Belarus and other neighboring markets, highlight the severity of the current domestic gasoline supply-demand imbalance in Russia, and also reflect how declining refinery operating rates are reshaping traditional Russian oil product trade flows. (Jin10 Data APP) Spot Market at a Glance: ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ►