Mining operators across Zambia are formalizing their policy demands ahead of the upcoming national elections, calling on the government to strengthen incentives for local mineral processing, greenfield exploration, and power generation expansion. Industry leaders emphasize that these measures are vital to achieving the national benchmark of tripling annual copper output to 3 million tonnes. This push coincides with a tight physical market, where surging demand for critical metals in electric vehicles, power networks, and construction has driven benchmark copper futures up over 40% in the past year to $14,000 per tonne. Fiscal stabilization and closer engagement with miners have already drawn over $10 billion in committed investment to Zambia since the 2021 election. However, expanding long-term output hinges on resolving critical infrastructure bottlenecks. According to the Zambia Chamber of Mines, maintaining a robust exploration pipeline via greenfield spending and licensing reforms is essential to secure real industry growth. Meanwhile, unintegrated producers continue to advocate for export duty relief on copper concentrates. Industry executives estimate that Zambia needs at least 2,000 megawatts of additional generation capacity to prevent severe power shortages from capping planned mine expansions. Because mining remains the country's economic backbone, contributing 9% of GDP, 72% of export earnings, and nearly half of government revenue, analysts expect general policy continuity for foreign direct investment following the polls.

[SMM Express] Automotive recycling specialists are highlighting the environmental and economic benefits of catalytic converter recycling as industries increasingly adopt circular economy practices. Catalytic converters contain valuable platinum group metals (PGMs), including platinum, palladium and rhodium, which can be recovered and refined for reuse in automotive, electronics and other industrial applications. Recycling these components reduces reliance on primary mining, lowering energy consumption, greenhouse gas emissions and industrial waste associated with extracting PGMs from ore. As millions of vehicles reach the end of their service life each year, efficient recovery of catalytic converters also helps divert valuable materials from landfills while supporting more sustainable resource management. Recovered PGMs retain their chemical properties through repeated refining, enabling manufacturers to secure secondary supplies of critical metals and improve supply chain resilience. As resource efficiency become increasingly important across the automotive sector, catalytic converter recycling is expected to remain a key secondary source of platinum, palladium and rhodium. Greater recovery rates could help supplement primary mine supply, supporting circularity while improving the long-term availability of critical PGMs for industrial applications.

[Deep Seismic Risks Emerge, Codelco Suspends Andes Norte Expansion Project at El Teniente Copper Mine] Codelco temporarily suspended development and construction activities at the Andes Norte project of the El Teniente copper mine due to potential new-type seismic risks emerging in deep areas, while other production areas of the mine remain in operation. The company will further strengthen seismic monitoring and technical assessment and has not yet announced a resumption time. Andes Norte is an important project for the deep resource succession of El Teniente. This suspension may increase uncertainty over the mine’s medium and long-term production recovery and the commissioning of deep projects.

SMM August 5: On the metals markets: As of the midday close, base metals on the domestic market almost all rose. SHFE copper rose 0.79%, SHFE aluminum rose 0.15%, SHFE lead rose 2.61%, SHFE zinc rose 1.38%, SHFE tin rose 0.5%, and SHFE nickel fell 0.78%. In addition, the most-traded cast aluminum futures were flat at 23,365 yuan/mt. The most-traded alumina futures rose 0.99%, the most-traded lithium carbonate futures rose 1.45%, the most-traded silicon metal futures rose 0.72%, and the most-traded polysilicon futures rose 1.83%. Most ferrous metals rose. Iron ore rose 0.93%, rebar rose 0.34%, hot-rolled coil rose 0.5%, and stainless steel fell 2.09%. Coking coal and coke: the most-traded coking coal contract rose 3.27%, and the most-traded coke contract rose 2.13%. On the overseas base metals market, as of 11:45, LME metals broadly rose. LME copper was flat at $14,043/mt, LME aluminum rose 0.22%, LME lead rose 0.71%, LME zinc rose 0.59%, LME tin rose 0.13%, and LME nickel fell 0.2%. On the precious metals front, as of 11:45, COMEX gold rose 0.8% and COMEX silver rose 1.33%. On the domestic precious metals front, SHFE gold rose 1.92%, and the most-traded SHFE silver contract rose 5.35%. In addition, as of the midday close, the most-traded platinum futures rose 7.04%, and the most-traded palladium futures rose 6.01%. As of the midday close, the most-traded European container freight futures fell 8.96% to 1,635 points. As of 11:45 on August 5, the following are some futures’ midday quotes: > Click to view the SMM data dashboard Spot and fundamentals Copper: Today, in Guangdong, #1 copper cathode spot against the front-month contract: high-quality copper was quoted at a premium of 110 yuan/mt, up 10 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; standard-quality copper was at a premium of 30 yuan/mt, up 30 yuan/mt; and SX-EW copper was at a discount of 30 yuan/mt, up 30 yuan/mt. The average price of Guangdong #1 copper cathode was 106,990 yuan/mt, up 450 yuan/mt from the previous trading day, while the average price of SX-EW copper was 106,890 yuan/mt, up 460 yuan/mt. Spot market: Guangdong inventories ended a two-day increase and declined again, mainly due to reduced arrivals... > Click for details Macro front Domestic: [The PBOC’s open market operations net drained 201.5 billion yuan today] The PBOC conducted 5 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repo operations, with an operation rate of 1.40%, unchanged from the previous operation. Today, 206.5 billion yuan of reverse repos matured. > On August 5, the central parity rate of the yuan in the interbank foreign exchange market was 6.7889 yuan per US dollar US dollar side: As of 11:45, the US dollar index fell 0.05% to 99.82. Oil prices fell further, with markets betting that the tight energy supply situation will ease, potentially reducing inflationary pressures, and cooling expectations for US Fed interest rate hikes. (Wall Street CN) According to the CME "FedWatch," the probability that the US Fed will keep rates unchanged in September is 41.6%, while there is a 58.4% probability of a cumulative 25bp rate hike. For October, the probability of rates staying unchanged is 30.5%, with a 53.9% probability of a cumulative 25bp hike and a 15.5% probability of a cumulative 50bp hike. (Jin10 Data APP) "Fed mouthpiece" Nick Timiraos wrote that US Treasury Secretary Bessent’s policy reaction function has shifted to a less dovish stance. His remarks this year suggest that the Fed should continue to hold rates steady. Earlier this year, Bessent cited models showing that the Fed’s policy rate could be anywhere from more than 25bp to over 100bp above the neutral rate. Today (August 4), he put forward two points. He first defended Warsh’s decision last week not to articulate any policy reaction function: "I believe every meeting should be open, and market participants should judge for themselves... I think Warsh wants to keep his options open to achieve the best outcome." Secondly, he did propose a policy reaction function that could be seen as dovish, arguing that near-term shocks should be ignored: "What exactly will be the impact of rising short-term rates? We’ll have to wait and see." He raised this question, but then responded by noting that underlying inflation is "very mild... very steady." "In core inflation, after stripping out the more volatile components influenced by energy, the rest has been very steady. I expect this to continue." (Jin10 Data APP) On the economic data front, US job openings declined somewhat in June, but hiring rebounded slightly, indicating that labour market demand remained relatively stable. eToro’s Bret Kenwell noted that this Friday’s non-farm payrolls report will be the next key period: "If the data is strong, especially amid still-elevated inflation, it will reinforce expectations for a September rate hike; but if the data is weak, combined with last week’s lower-than-expected GDP growth, it could provide more justification for the Fed to stay on hold." (Wall Street CN) Data: Today will see the release of France’s June industrial production m/m, final July services PMIs for France, Germany, the Eurozone, and the UK, Eurozone June PPI m/m, US July ADP employment change, final US July S&P Global services PMI, and US July ISM non-manufacturing PMI, among other data. Watch for: 2028 FOMC voter, Kansas City Fed President Schmid delivered a speech on the US Fed, monetary policy, and agricultural economic outlook. Crude oil: As of 11:45, oil prices on both benchmarks extended their declines from the previous two trading days, with WTI down 1.36% and Brent down 1.06%. Qatar said both the US and Iran are optimistic about an agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, and the relevant proposal has been drafted. US Treasury Secretary Bessent publicly stated that the agreement could be reached on Tuesday or Wednesday. As a result, crude oil futures continued their decline. The Strait of Hormuz is a critical passage for global energy supply; if reopened, it is expected to normalize global oil supply. According to Xinhua News Agency, Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Baghaei said on the 4th that Iran is still negotiating with Oman on the Strait of Hormuz, and the negotiations have made "positive progress" at both technical and political levels. US Treasury Secretary Bessent indicated that an agreement could be reached as early as Tuesday or Wednesday this week. According to a report by Axios on the 4th, regional sources and US officials said that the US, Iran, and Oman are "close to reaching" a temporary agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, and the US side hopes to announce the agreement on the 5th. (From Wallstreetcn APP) Spot Market Overview: ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ►

[SMM Imported Copper Market] Recently, China’s import parity inversion has been notable, and the backwardation structure of near-term LME contracts has widened. Sellers in the imported copper market have become more active in offering, and coupled with mediocre downstream consumption demand, spot premiums have shown a trend of retreating from highs. However, as the siphon effect from North America persists, imported copper supply replenishment is expected to remain limited in China, keeping spot premiums supported on the downside. In addition, some smelters have export expectations, so China’s subsequent export situation needs to be closely monitored.

[SMM Tin Midday Review: Macro liquidity expectations and the weak spot market constrain each other, with the most-traded SHFE tin contract continuing to consolidate at highs]

On August 5, the average warrant price fell by $4/mt from the previous trading day to $106/mt (price range: $100-112/mt); the average B/L price also fell by $4/mt to $101/mt (price range: $95-107/mt); the average price for EQ copper (CIF B/L) dropped by $3/mt to $68/mt (price range: $64-72/mt), with quotations referencing cargoes arriving in August. The SHFE/LME price ratio deteriorated further today, coupled with a continuing widening of the nearby backwardation structure. Seller offerings increased but were quoted at relatively high levels, while the rise in copper prices dampened downstream buying interest. Market demand was sluggish, and buyers and sellers remained divided, resulting in limited actual transactions and a downward shift in the center of transaction premiums. It was heard that mainstream quotations for EQ copper arriving in August were $65-75/mt, and for registered B/L arriving in August were $105-110/mt.

Deutsche Bank says gold's current rally, running since August 2024, is one of only five such episodes since 1975. Analysts at the bank see the recent pullback as largely complete and reiterates its $4,600/oz Q4 2026 forecast.

August 4, 2026 Silver trades at around USD 58, roughly 52 per cent below its January record. At the same time, the market is heading for its sixth consecutive supply deficit. Two facts that appear not to fit together – and one deficit figure currently circulating through the financial press in two entirely different versions. Time for a sober stocktake. The silver market has been through one of the sharpest moves in its recent history in 2026. On 29 January the price reached an unprecedented USD 121.62 per ounce. Since then the metal has given back a good half of that and now hovers around USD 58. To many investors, that looks like a rally that failed. In parallel, a series of reports has appeared over recent weeks attesting to a widening supply deficit – but with markedly different numbers attached. Some cite 67 million ounces, others 46.3 million. Anyone wanting to know what an investment case can actually be built on first has to establish which figure applies. What the World Silver Survey Actually Shows The authoritative source is the World Silver Survey , produced by the Silver Institute together with the London research house Metals Focus. The 2026 edition was published on 15 April – and it puts this year's deficit at 46.3 million ounces. That represents an increase of around 15 per cent on the 40.3 million ounce shortfall recorded in 2025, and it marks the sixth consecutive deficit year. The number is indeed growing – but it is growing from a lower base than recent headlines suggest. The frequently quoted 67 million ounces comes from an earlier Silver Institute projection published ahead of the full survey. More recent data on mine production, recycling and end-use have since superseded that estimate. Anyone arguing on the basis of 67 million ounces today is simply working with an outdated figure. This is not pedantry. The gap between the two numbers amounts to roughly a third of the deficit itself. Building the silver case on the higher figure substantially overstates the scarcity. The Genuinely Relevant Number Lies Elsewhere The annual deficit is not, in any case, the most meaningful metric. Set against global annual demand of around 1.11 billion ounces, 46.3 million ounces amounts to roughly four per cent – hardly a dramatic gap in isolation. The cumulative figure is more instructive. Since the market flipped from surplus to deficit in 2021, it has drawn a total of around 762 million ounces from above-ground stocks to cover the gap between supply and demand. That is close to a full year of global mine production. This is where the supply story really sits. It is not the individual annual shortfall that strains the market, but the fact that available inventories have been steadily eroding for six years. The consequences have already shown themselves repeatedly in the form of thin liquidity, elevated lease rates and unusually violent price swings. The Composition of Demand Is Shifting Markedly What is notable is that the 2026 deficit widens even though total demand is falling. Metals Focus expects a decline of around two per cent to 1,112.6 million ounces, alongside supply falling by roughly two per cent to 1,066.4 million ounces. Within demand, a clear reallocation is under way: Industrial demand: down three per cent to 639.6 million ounces, a second consecutive annual decline. At around 57 per cent of the total, the segment nonetheless remains by far the largest demand pillar and stays historically elevated. Jewellery fabrication: falling to 159.4 million ounces, a five-year low. The drop is particularly pronounced in India at around 18 per cent, where high prices are driving lighter pieces and subdued rural demand. Coins and bars: up 18 per cent, the strongest level since 2022. The pattern is unambiguous. Manufacturers are designing silver out of their processes wherever high prices make that viable, while private investors take up physical metal. The market is therefore increasingly driven by investment flows rather than by fabrication demand. The Gold-Silver Ratio as a Valuation Anchor A further perspective comes from the relationship between the two precious metals. With gold at around USD 4,050 and silver at roughly USD 58, the gold-silver ratio currently stands at just under 70. For comparison: in December the ratio briefly fell below 55:1, its lowest reading since 2013. Silver has therefore given up considerably more than gold during the correction – unsurprising given the metal's stronger industrial linkage. In downturns that dual role acts as a drag; in upswings it acts as leverage. Historically, a ratio around 70 is neither extreme nor especially cheap – it sits in the middle of the range of the past two decades. As a buy signal it is therefore of little use. As an indication that silver has not kept pace with gold's recent moves, it is rather more telling. What Investors Should Take From This The supply side remains the strongest element of the silver case, and it is structurally anchored. Around 70 per cent of silver arises as a by-product of lead, zinc, copper and gold mining. Higher silver prices therefore do not automatically translate into higher output, because the production decision rests on the economics of the primary metals. Metals Focus expects mine production to remain broadly flat in 2026. At the same time, the risks should not be waved away. Metals Focus itself points out that persistent geopolitical tension and instability in the Middle East could weigh on industrial demand. Monetary headwinds compound this: the US Federal Reserve is currently debating rate increases rather than cuts, which is fundamentally unhelpful for non-yielding assets such as precious metals. And in a market carried increasingly by investment flows, sharp sell-offs remain possible at any point should financial investors withdraw in size. The sober conclusion, then, is this. The structural deficit is real, it is widening, and six years of inventory drawdown have left the market vulnerable. But it is not an argument for any particular price path over the coming months – and certainly not one that benefits from being reinforced with inflated deficit figures. Anyone investing in silver should treat the volatility as a permanent feature rather than an aberration. Source： https://goldinvest.de/en/the-silver-deficit-is-widening-but-it-is-smaller-than-many-believe

[Aluminum Divergence Consolidation Recovery Inside and Outside China; Middle East Tensions Ease, Disturbing Aluminum Price Risk Premium] Overall, recent improvement on the macro front, interest rate hike expectations remaining on hold and easing the marginal constraints on the nonferrous metals sector, along with the continued rise in the proportion of liquid aluminum in China, have supported aluminum prices. However, the continued rollout of long-term aluminum capacity outside China, weak traditional end-use demand in China during the traditional off-season, and disturbances from Middle East geopolitical uncertainties are expected to result in aluminum prices consolidating on a strong note.