Industry chain prices were generally under pressure this week, with supply and demand diverging across segments. The lithium market was hit by expectations of ample future supply, dragging the average battery-grade lithium carbonate price down to 104,400 yuan/mt, a weekly decline of 14.7%. Spot destocking and a stronger basis still provided some support, but salt plant inventories edged higher. Cobalt and nickel demand recovery remained insufficient, with cautious procurement keeping salt prices on a downtrend. Ternary cathode materials and LCO faced dual pressure from falling costs and weak orders. LFP supply and demand were stable, with prices easing alongside raw materials. Artificial graphite found relatively strong cost support, separator inventories were low with tightening supply-demand conditions, and electrolyte prices held steady. Sodium-ion battery orders grew and capacity releases accelerated, but profitability recovery lagged, leaving commercialization still constrained by economics. In the recycling market, black mass prices and procurement coefficients moved lower, strengthening buyer bargaining power. Competition intensified in end-user energy storage project bidding, with Jieyang project candidate quotes concentrated at 0.8–0.82 Yuan/Wh. Going forward, attention should focus on ore-side production resumptions, production schedule fulfillment, and actual restocking; industry chain stabilization still hinges on demand improvement.

Raw material side this week, lithium carbonate futures prices accelerated downward to around 100,000 yuan/mt, quoted at 101,800-107,000 yuan/mt on October 15. Nickel sulphate maintained a grind-lower trend, while cobalt sulphate prices continued to decline under weak demand. For ternary, LCO, and LFP material types, on the LFP hydrometallurgy side, taking LFP electrode black mass as an example, prices were quoted at 4,800-5,300 yuan per % lithium as of October 15, down sharply by 975 yuan per % lithium from the first day after the holiday. Affected by the continued decline in lithium carbonate after the holiday, downstream acceptance of current prices per % lithium weakened further, and cargo holders increased concessions to sell. At this stage, LFP battery black mass was quoted at 4,150-4,400 yuan per % lithium, with the price spread against electrode black mass still holding at a high level of around 800 yuan per % lithium. On the ternary and LCO side, ternary electrode black mass payables were around 71%-73%, down about 1.2 percentage points cumulatively from the first day after the holiday. Some high-nickel ternary electrode black mass, such as 8-series and 9-series material, saw transaction payables fall to around 72%-75%. Affected by cobalt and lithium material prices, LCO electrode black mass cobalt-lithium payables fell to 67%-70%, while LCO battery black mass cobalt-lithium payables were 66%-69%. At this stage, cobalt sulphate prices fell by more than 4,000 yuan/mt from the first day after the holiday. Downstream LCO hydrometallurgy enterprises remained cautious in purchasing, market transactions were sluggish, and LCO-side prices continued to stay below the ternary side.

This week, the battery industry chain showed divergent trends. Spot lithium ore was tight, but expectations of future supply growth weighed on prices. On October 12, the average spot price of lithium carbonate fell to 115,400 yuan/mt, down 6,950 yuan/mt in a single day. Futures declined with rising open interest, while social inventory continued to destock. Lithium hydroxide, cobalt salt, and nickel sulphate were under pressure, with cautious purchasing. Ternary cathode precursor, ternary cathode material, and LCO weakened along with raw materials. LFP orders were relatively strong, with high-quality production lines running near full capacity and finished product inventories declining. Iron phosphate operating rates were high, but resistance to price increases grew. Artificial graphite edged up, supported by costs and demand, while natural graphite operated at low levels. Separator was supported by NEV, energy storage, and export rush demand, with supply-demand conditions tight. Electrolyte rose due to lagged cost pass-through. Sodium-ion battery production and delivery were stable, while recycling-side inquiries recovered but transactions did not increase in volume. In news, CATL deepened cooperation with Seres. In the first three quarters, NEV production and sales both exceeded 12 million units. Export tax rebate policy adjustments and China-EU automotive trade consultations drew attention.

Post-holiday battery materials market trends diverged. Lithium ore quotes rebounded slightly, trade inventories were destocked, and ore prices are expected to consolidate in line with lithium carbonate in the short term. Lithium carbonate futures retreated after a rapid rise, closing at 117,300 yuan/mt, down 1.28%; domestic production declined, downstream inventories were significantly destocked, and salt plants continued to ship mainly under long-term contracts. Lithium hydroxide spot order quotes rose to 130,000–140,000 yuan/mt, but purchasing was cautious and transactions were sluggish. Cobalt products and nickel sulphate remained under pressure, cost support weakened, and demand recovery for ternary cathode materials was limited. LFP orders were relatively strong, leading production lines were near full capacity, finished product inventories declined, and the average price rose to 50,400 yuan/mt; resistance to iron phosphate price increases grew. Artificial graphite had strong cost support, separators were driven by NEV, energy storage, and export rush demand, with a tight supply-demand balance; electrolytes rose due to earlier cost pass-through. In the recycling market, inquiries recovered, but transactions had yet to pick up volume. Going forward, attention should be paid to the sustainability of restocking, the realization of production schedules, and changes in raw material prices.

[SMM Analysis: Solid-State Battery Next Decade Series, 6 of 9: The Ternary Route May Become Great Again] Ternary has been structurally squeezed by LFP in the liquid lithium battery stage, making it difficult for its share to return to the mainstream. Solid-state batteries are catalyzing its "second positioning": high-nickel ternary, lithium-rich manganese-based materials are naturally compatible with solid-state systems, and solid-liquid batteries provide transitional growth. Scenarios such as eVTOL, humanoid robots, and high-end EVs, which have rigid demand for energy density and are price-insensitive, will become a solid foundation for the high-end specialized path of ternary.

In September 2026, China's total power battery cell production rose 1.4% MoM, a marked slowdown from the previous month's 11.6% MoM growth. The two major technology routes, ternary and LFP, diverged significantly, showing pronounced structural characteristics. By system, LFP power battery cell production rose 6.2% MoM, extending its recent strong performance; ternary power battery cell production fell 15% MoM, a significant decline. The rise of one and the fall of the other further widened LFP's share advantage in the power battery cell supply structure. LFP: End-use peak season plus second-generation blade battery ramp-up provide ample growth momentum The growth in LFP power battery cell production was driven mainly by two factors. First, during the traditional September-October peak season, sales of low and mid-end NEV models priced at 100,000 yuan and below performed relatively well. Models in this price segment are overwhelmingly equipped with LFP batteries, directly boosting upstream battery cell production schedules. Second, the second-generation blade battery has continued to ramp up since its volume release, with production of corresponding car models steadily rising, making it an important source of incremental growth in LFP battery cell production. Ternary: Mediocre sales of high-end extended-range models drag down battery cell production The decline in ternary power battery cell production stemmed primarily from the overall mediocre sales of high-end extended-range models using ternary batteries. Since September, end-user orders for some mid-to-high-end NEV brands have weakened, and the destocking pace of extended-range and mid-to-large models primarily equipped with ternary batteries has slowed, directly transmitting to the battery cell segment and causing related producers to scale back production plans. October outlook: Production schedule expected to rise 6.6% MoM, with LFP continuing to push volume Looking ahead to October, power battery cell production is expected to rise 6.6% MoM. It should be noted that in September, some battery cell manufacturers were affected by tight supply of raw materials such as copper foil, leading to downward adjustments in overall production schedules and exerting some pressure on actual monthly output. As raw material supply tightness eases, October production schedules are expected to recover. LFP battery cells, as the current mainstay route in the power battery market, will continue to push volume with support from end-use demand, and their share is expected to rise further. For ternary battery cells, the marginal changes in end-use sales of high-end extended-range models will need to be monitored.

Raw material side, lithium carbonate prices accelerated their bottoming process this week, with the 130,000 yuan/mt and 125,000 yuan/mt levels falling in quick succession. After pre-holiday stockpiling ended, the decline in futures dragged spot prices lower, and today prices were quoted at 119,000–127,000 yuan/mt, hitting a new low for this pullback. Nickel sulphate prices broke below the 30,000 yuan/mt mark, and cobalt sulphate prices extended their decline.

On the raw materials side, lithium carbonate prices continued to consolidate at the lower end of their range near RMB 130,000 per ton this week, edging slightly lower today. Nickel sulfate prices remained soft, hovering just above the RMB 30,000-per-ton threshold, while cobalt sulfate slipped a little further.

On the raw materials side, lithium carbonate prices continued to consolidate at the lower end of their range near RMB 130,000 per ton this week, edging slightly lower today. Nickel sulfate prices remained soft, hovering just above the RMB 30,000-per-ton threshold, while cobalt sulfate slipped a little further.

SMM Sep 30 News: 【Central China's Hunan (Changde): 20,000 tpa Waste LFP Cathode Sheet Project】According to a pre-approval disclosure by the local ecological environment branch, a new project for processing 20,000 tons of waste lithium battery cathode material annually is under review. With a total investment of RMB 50 million, the project in Changde, Hunan, will build a resource utilization production line handling 20,000 tons per year of un-electrolyte-filled waste LFP cathode sheets. 【East China's Fujian (Putian): 40,000 tpa Battery Recycling Project】According to an environmental portal, a first-round EIA disclosure has been published for a waste lithium battery recycling, processing, and resource circulation project. Located in Huangshi Town, Licheng District, Putian, Fujian, the project will build 6 cascade utilization and recycling processing lines, with main equipment including multi-functional shredders, riveting machines, heating-reshaping machines, casing centrifuges, and air separators. Upon completion, it will add 40,000 tons of annual waste lithium battery recycling capacity. 【North China's Hebei (Dongguang): 60,000 tpa Iron Phosphate Black Mass Regeneration Project】According to an EIA approval disclosure by the municipal administrative approval bureau, a renovation project for regenerating 60,000 tpa of iron phosphate black mass has been published. With a total investment of RMB 31.8 million, the project within an existing plant in the Dongguang Economic Development Zone fine chemical park will dismantle the existing alkali purification line in the black mass purification workshop and purchase impurity-removal reactors, filter presses, and storage tanks. Upon completion, the plant will add 60,000 tpa of iron phosphate black mass processing capacity, producing 58,252 tpa of ferrophosphorus powder (for reuse in iron phosphate production) and 6,911 tpa of sodium chloride by-product. 【North China's Hebei (Hejian): 12,000 tpa Battery Utilization Project】According to an EIA approval disclosure by the municipal administrative approval bureau, a power lithium battery comprehensive utilization project has been approved. With a total investment of RMB 66.5 million, the project in the city's northern industrial park will build one dismantling workshop and one recycling workshop, equipped with 1 automated dismantling line, 2 battery crushing and recycling lines, and supporting safety and environmental protection facilities. Upon completion, it will comprehensively utilize 12,000 tons per year of waste power lithium batteries from NEVs (including electrode sheets). 【East China's Anhui (Taihe): 50,000 tpa Battery Resource Utilization Project】According to a disclosure by the municipal ecological environment bureau, a waste new-energy battery resource comprehensive utilization project's impact report has been accepted for review. With a total investment of RMB 430 million, the project in a green new-energy base in the Taihe Economic Development Zone will purchase four automated battery crushing lines, acid leaching units, and evaporation-crystallization-drying units, building 40 kt/a waste LFP battery and 10 kt/a waste ternary battery processing installations, along with battery warehouses, pack dismantling, discharging, dry-process, and hydrometallurgical workshops. 【Southwest China's Guizhou (Guiyang): 25,000 tpa Battery Recycling Project】According to a local legal news outlet, the draft EIA for a green circular and high-value utilization industrial base project for waste lithium batteries has been released for comment. With a total investment of RMB 120 million, the project in the Guiyang Comprehensive Bonded Zone, Guizhou, will build 2 waste battery recycling and dismantling lines and 1 electrode sheet crushing line. Upon completion, it is expected to process 25,000 tons of waste lithium batteries and electrode sheets annually.