[SMM Shanghai Spot Copper] Looking ahead to tomorrow, the Shanghai spot copper market is expected to remain under pressure. After copper prices jumped, downstream procurement sentiment pulled back, indicating limited acceptance of current price levels. From the market structure perspective, suppliers showed strong willingness to sell, with some brands continuing to offload cargo, putting pressure on discounts. Downstream buyers mostly maintained a wait-and-see stance, with procurement mainly driven by rigid demand and buying on dips. It is worth noting that the price spread between high-quality copper and standard-quality copper narrowed somewhat from the previous period, indicating that the market trading structure has become more rational, with actual consumption demand becoming the dominant force at the current stage. Overall, amid the tug-of-war between suppliers actively selling and downstream buyers purchasing cautiously, spot prices against the 2604 contract are expected to maintain the current discount level tomorrow.

[SMM Shanghai Spot Copper] Copper prices rose from yesterday, but both buying and selling sentiment pulled back intraday, indicating that downstream acceptance of current price levels remained limited. In terms of market structure, under the current price spread between futures contracts structure, suppliers showed strong willingness to sell, with some offloading cargo, driving overall spot discounts down rapidly, while downstream willingness to make counteroffers was relatively evident. Entering the second trading session, after premiums were cut further, market transactions improved somewhat, but downstream procurement remained generally cautious, mainly focused on restocking on dips, with insufficient willingness to chase higher prices. Overall, amid the tug-of-war between suppliers actively selling and downstream buyers purchasing cautiously, Shanghai spot copper discounts were expected to remain under pressure tomorrow.

[Shanghai Spot Copper] Looking ahead to tomorrow, the Shanghai spot copper market is expected to remain in a tug-of-war. Copper prices declined somewhat during the day, and downstream enterprises showed stronger restocking sentiment, but considering the heavy concentrated purchases already made last week, actual incremental buying was relatively limited. Inventory side, according to SMM, combined social inventory in Shanghai and Jiangsu fell by about 41,600 mt, showing a sharp destocking trend. During the day, supplier quotations were steady at first and then declined, with suppliers actively selling as premiums rebounded, and the sell-off put pressure on spot prices. In addition, some suppliers had already quoted against the SHFE copper 2604 contract using cargoes with invoices dated next month during the day, indirectly reflecting moderate sales volume within the month and strong willingness to sell among suppliers. Overall, amid the tug-of-war between faster destocking and supplier sell-offs, Shanghai spot copper premiums are expected to remain at the current level tomorrow.

SMM Nickel News, March 24: Macro and Market News: (1) Iran’s Parliament Speaker Qalibaf denied having held talks with the US side and accused fake news of manipulating the financial and oil markets; Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps said it would launch new attacks on US targets and called Trump’s remarks “psychological warfare” (2) Israeli officials said Washington had set April 9 as the target date for ending the war. Talks between Iran and the US were expected to be held later this week in Pakistan, adding that Washington had not yet informed Israel of any contact with Iran’s Parliament Speaker Qalibaf. Spot Market: On March 24, the SMM price of #1 refined nickel fell 1,700 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. In spot premiums, Jinchuan #1 refined nickel averaged 6,250 yuan/mt, down 300 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; China’s mainstream brands of electrodeposited nickel were at -300-400 yuan/mt. Futures Market: After surging sharply in the night session, the most-traded SHFE nickel 2605 contract pulled back in the morning session, closing the morning session at 132,830 yuan/mt, up 0.69%. Current nickel prices were in a stage of intense tug-of-war between macro headwinds and supply risks. Short term, tighter Indonesian RKAB quotas, continued gains in ore prices, and the risk of sulfur supply disruptions provided solid support below, but high inventory and the slow recovery in end-use demand still capped upside room. The core trading range of the most-traded SHFE nickel contract was expected at 130,000-140,000 yuan/mt in the short term.

SMM Nickel News, March 23: Macro and market news: (1) Trump demanded that Iran reopen the Strait of Hormuz within 48 hours, or its power stations would be destroyed. Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps responded that if Trump's threat to attack Iranian power stations were carried out, Iran would immediately take four measures, including fully closing the Strait of Hormuz. (2) Pan Gongsheng, Governor of the People's Bank of China, said at the China Development Forum 2026 Annual Conference on March 22 that China would continue to implement a moderately accommodative monetary policy. A range of monetary policy tools, including the reserve requirement ratio (RRR), policy interest rates, and open market operations, would be used in a comprehensive manner to maintain ample liquidity. Spot market: On March 23, the SMM price of #1 refined nickel fell by 50 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Spot premiums, the average premium for Jinchuan #1 refined nickel was 6,550 yuan/mt, unchanged from the previous trading day; the mainstream China electrodeposited nickel brands were at -300-400 yuan/mt. Futures market: The most-traded SHFE nickel contract (2605) fluctuated at highs during the session and closed the morning session at 134,810 yuan/mt, up 1.28%. Nickel prices are currently in a phase of intense tug-of-war between macro headwinds and supply risks. Short term, tighter Indonesian RKAB quotas, continued increases in ore prices, and the risk of sulfur supply disruptions have formed a solid bottom, but high inventory and the slow recovery in end-use demand still capped upside room. The core trading range of the most-traded SHFE nickel contract is expected at 130,000-140,000 yuan/mt in the short term.

[SMM Shanghai Spot Copper] Copper prices opened lower with a gap in the night session yesterday, and some enterprises placed orders to restock at low levels. Intraday purchasing demand increased somewhat, but given that restocking had already been concentrated the previous day, the actual increase in new procurement was limited. According to data released by SHFE on March 19, SHFE copper warrants fell by 12,200 mt during the day, confirming that after copper prices pulled back, downstream enthusiasm for buying the dip picked up, and the center of spot premiums moved higher accordingly. From the market structure perspective, the import profit window widened slightly, and expectations for subsequent inflows of cargo from outside China strengthened, which may put some pressure on the supply side. Overall, amid the tug-of-war between faster destocking and supplier selling, Shanghai spot copper premiums are expected to remain at the current level tomorrow.

SMM Nickel, March 20: Macro and Market News: (1) The Party Committee of the People's Bank of China held an enlarged meeting on March 18, which stated that it would continue to effectively implement a moderately accommodative monetary policy, firmly safeguard the stable operation of financial markets such as equities, bonds, and foreign exchange, and advance legislative formulation and amendments including the People's Bank of China Law and the Financial Stability Law. (2) The interest rate futures market priced in only 5.5 basis points of US Fed interest rate cuts this year, and bets on rate hikes began to emerge. Spot Market: On March 20, the SMM price of #1 refined nickel rose by 3,000 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. In terms of spot premiums, the average price of Jinchuan #1 refined nickel was 6,550 yuan/mt, down 200 yuan/mt from the previous trading day, while the mainstream China electrodeposited nickel brands were quoted at -300-400 yuan/mt. Futures Market: The most-traded SHFE nickel contract (2605) staged a sharp rebound, closing the morning session at 134,780 yuan/mt, up 1.50. Yesterday, nickel prices once fell below the 130,000 yuan mark, as trades on expectations of a global economic recession triggered by escalating geopolitical conflict in the Middle East put the metals complex under pressure overall. Nickel prices then took the lead in rebounding sharply, recovering to around 135,000 yuan/mt in the morning session. Short term, sentiment from the macro perspective may continue to dominate the market, and nickel prices may maintain wide swings.

[SMM Shanghai Spot Copper] Intraday trading in the spot market improved somewhat from yesterday. Suppliers still showed willingness to hold prices firm, but some suppliers’ sell-offs temporarily weighed on the market, causing spot premiums to decline in the second trading session. Coupled with the narrowing Contango price spread between futures contracts of different months, suppliers’ willingness to ship to delivery warehouse weakened, and spot premiums remained under pressure. Demand side, as copper prices fell, downstream enterprises may have had some restocking demand, but the actual appeal of current copper prices remained limited. Supply side, social inventory was still at a high level, but actually circulating cargoes were relatively tight. Some warrants were already seen flowing out during the day, which may ease some pressure on spot supply. Meanwhile, the import window remained open, and expectations for subsequent inflows of cargoes from outside China continued to rise. Overall, amid the tug-of-war between sellers and buyers, SHFE copper spot is expected to maintain the current discount pattern overall tomorrow.

SMM Nickel News, March 19: Macro and Market News: (1) The US Fed kept interest rates unchanged at 3.5%-3.75%, while Governor Milan believed rates should be cut by 25 basis points. The impact of developments in the Middle East on the US economy remained uncertain. The dot plot maintained expectations for one interest rate cut in each of the next two years, but the distribution turned more hawkish. Market bets on the US Fed's rate cuts for the full year were reduced from about 20 basis points to less than 11 basis points. (2) Powell believed interest rates were at the high end of the neutral range, or slightly restrictive, leaving policy in a favorable position, and said the current situation was not stagflation. This energy supply disruption was a one-off event. Regarding whether he would remain in office, Powell stressed that he would not leave before the investigation concluded, and might not leave even after it concluded. If no successor was confirmed, he would continue to serve as acting chair. Spot Market: On March 19, the SMM price of #1 refined nickel fell by 3,100 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. In terms of spot premiums, the average price of Jinchuan #1 refined nickel was 6,750 yuan/mt, up 200 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; mainstream electrodeposited nickel brands in China were quoted at -300-400 yuan/mt. Futures Market: The most-traded SHFE nickel contract (2605) plunged sharply during the session and closed the morning session at 131,760 yuan/mt, down 2.79%. Tensions in the Middle East remained elevated, and the escalating conflict between Iran and Israel triggered market concerns over rising energy prices, intensifying inflation, and economic slowdown. Safe-haven sentiment heated up. Combined with the US Fed keeping interest rates unchanged while raising inflation expectations, expectations for interest rate cuts were revised down, causing metal prices to fall sharply across the board. Pressure from the macro perspective may continue to dominate market sentiment, and nickel prices are expected to remain in the doldrums.

[SMM Shanghai Spot Copper] Intraday trading in the spot market was subdued, while suppliers still showed willingness to hold prices firm. Downstream wait-and-see sentiment remained relatively strong, and spot premiums edged down slightly from yesterday. As the contango price spread between nearby contracts narrowed, suppliers' willingness to ship to delivery warehouses weakened somewhat, putting pressure on spot premiums. On the demand side, downstream buyers maintained just-in-time procurement, and transactions remained sluggish even after suppliers slightly lowered their quotations, as current copper prices had limited appeal to end-users. On the supply side, domestic copper and imported cargoes previously locked in at fixed prices continued to arrive, while social inventory remained at a high level. The outflow of warrants over the next two days may further weigh on spot premiums. Meanwhile, signs that the import window may still open persisted, and expectations for subsequent inflows of ex-China cargoes strengthened, further increasing supply-side pressure. Overall, amid a pattern of weak supply and demand, Shanghai spot copper premiums are expected to remain under pressure tomorrow, with a possibility of a slight widening.