[SMM Analysis]Analysis of Import and Export Data for Unwrought Aluminum Alloy, January-February 2026

[[Weekly Review of Aluminum Scrap and Secondary Aluminum]]Aluminum Prices Strengthened This Week, Rising Costs Drove Up ADC12 Prices

According to data, China's total imports of recycled copper raw materials reached 2.34 million physical tons in 2025, up 3.96% year-on-year from 2.25 million physical tons in 2024. However, the source structure shifted markedly. Among the top five supplier countries, imports from the United States plunged 67.88% year-on-year amid ongoing China-US trade tensions, while imports from Malaysia fell 32.61% due to tightening scrap import policies. Offsetting these declines, imports from Thailand surged 88.58%, and those from Japan and South Korea rose 32.96% and 32.95% respectively, driving a continued increase in Asia's overall share of supply.

Artificial intelligence has once again captured traders' attention. Although Nvidia's performance exceeded expectations, its stock price remained sluggish throughout the day, ultimately closing down more than 5%, dampening market sentiment. Influenced by the weak performance of the U.S. semiconductor sector, benchmark index contracts in Japan and South Korea, where technology stocks hold a relatively high weight, declined, while contracts in Australia and Hong Kong saw slight gains. These fluctuations further indicate the market's high sensitivity to AI-related news, as participants strive to comprehend the long-term implications of this rapidly advancing technology. According to Hardika Singh, an analyst at Fundstrat Global Advisors, the market's mediocre reaction to Nvidia's better-than-expected earnings report is partly because investors now take such exceptional performance for granted.

[ SMM Tin Morning Brief: Night session sees the most-traded SHFE tin contract surge then maintain fluctuating trend; spot market trading remains sluggish ]

[SMM Shanghai Spot Copper] Looking ahead to tomorrow, the contango spread between nearby futures contracts is expected to narrow slightly. Suppliers' willingness to ship to delivery warehouses remains, coupled with some smelters choosing to stockpile for delivery. Additionally, suppliers' sentiment to hold prices firm and hold back sales is evident, leading to limited tradable spot cargo in the market, which will support the spot discount structure. Moreover, some price ratio-based cargoes locked in during the previous period when the import window was open are expected to arrive gradually, potentially increasing supply in the short term. Overall, spot discounts are expected to continue narrowing slightly tomorrow.

Facing the global spatial mismatch challenge between green hydrogen production hubs (such as the Middle East, North Africa, and China) and consumption centers (such as Europe, Japan and South Korea), large-scale, economical, and safe cross-sea transportation has become key to the commercialization of hydrogen trade. On September 17, Haiwang Hydrogen proposed that its developed organic liquid hydrogen storage technology, with features such as "inherent safety, strong infrastructure compatibility, and significant comprehensive cost advantages," is expected to become the "optimal solution" for green hydrogen to go global, offering a highly promising solution for building a global hydrogen supply chain. I. Core Argument: Analysis of the Cross-Sea Transportation Advantages of Organic Liquid Hydrogen Storage Systematically elaborates on the competitive advantages of organic liquid hydrogen storage compared to other mainstream technological routes such as liquid hydrogen and liquid ammonia: Core Advantage: The hydrogen storage liquid is classified as a non-hazardous chemical (Class B), storable at room temperature and pressure, with no special transportation packaging requirements and low fire risk. Disruptive Advantage: It can directly utilize existing global logistics infrastructure, such as oil storage tanks and ordinary chemical tankers, significantly reducing initial investment. Convenience Advantage: As an ordinary chemical, it faces no special restrictions in cross-border customs clearance, vessel selection, port operations, and other processes, ensuring smooth procedures. Economic Advantage: The hydrogen storage/release reaction conditions are mild, with low comprehensive energy consumption; taking the China-South Korea route as an example, its total cost is competitive, especially with significant advantages in the storage segment. II. Technical Principle and Business Logic: Building a Closed-Loop Hydrogen Cycle The technology and business operation model of organic liquid hydrogen storage: Technical Process: Hydrogen is fixed into organic liquid (hydrogen-rich liquid) through a "hydrogenation" reaction, enabling stable hydrogen storage and transportation; upon reaching the destination, hydrogen is released through a "dehydrogenation" reaction, and the resulting hydrogen-lean liquid can be recycled. Business Closed Loop: Forms a complete trade closed loop of " hydrogen production at origin → hydrogenation into hydrogen-rich liquid → maritime transportation → dehydrogenation at destination → return transportation of hydrogen-lean liquid ." Although return logistics are involved, the overall cost is still considered controllable due to the use of ordinary carriers. III. Strategic Positioning and Market Prospects: Targeting the Global Hydrogen Trade Circle Positions organic liquid hydrogen storage technology within the broader context of global energy transition: Addressing Core Pain Points: Directly targets the biggest obstacle to hydrogen becoming a global standardized commodity—the storage and transportation challenge, particularly cross-sea transportation. Targeting Key Markets: Clearly aligns with the two emerging cross-regional green hydrogen trade circles: "Middle East-North Africa-Europe" and "China-Japan and South Korea." Citing Authoritative Endorsements: Referencing research conclusions from international consulting institutions like Roland Berger to provide third-party support for its cost advantages and feasibility, thereby enhancing persuasiveness. IV. Objective Evaluation and Industry Insights The source is the technology enterprise Haiwang Hydrogen Energy, which carries a clear technology promotion attribute. While acknowledging the enormous potential it proposes, it is also essential to objectively view the challenges it faces: Technology Maturity: There are still relatively few large-scale commercial cases of organic liquid hydrogen storage, and its long-term operational reliability, cycle life, as well as the efficiency and cost of catalysts in the dehydrogenation process, require further empirical validation. Energy Efficiency: Although the article claims its energy consumption is lower than that of liquid hydrogen/liquid ammonia, the chemical reaction of "hydrogenation-dehydrogenation" inherently involves energy loss. The full-chain energy efficiency is a key factor affecting its ultimate economic viability and low-carbon nature. Infrastructure Dependence: While leveraging existing facilities is an advantage, establishing a comprehensive logistics system for the recovery of "hydrogen-lean liquid" also requires coordination and incurs costs. Conclusion: It powerfully argues for the unique value and enormous potential of organic liquid hydrogen storage as a solution for the large-scale global expansion of green hydrogen. It is not intended to negate other technological pathways but rather provides an innovative approach prioritizing "safety" and "economy" to address the core bottlenecks in global hydrogen trade . As global green hydrogen projects accelerate their implementation, whether organic liquid hydrogen storage can become the dominant cross-sea transportation solution will depend on the pace of its technological iteration, the success of large-scale demonstration projects, and the construction of the entire industry chain ecosystem. In any case, its development will undoubtedly add an important option to the global hydrogen market, accelerating the arrival of the hydrogen era.

On June 10, 2025, the Ministry of Ecology and Environment (MEE) of the People's Republic of China officially announced the "Announcement on Matters Related to Regulating the Import Management of Recycled Black Mass Raw Materials for Lithium-ion Batteries and Recycled Steel Raw Materials".

June 18, 2025 News: Today, warrant prices ranged from $32 to $48/mt, with QP in July, and the average price increased by $1/mt compared to the previous trading day. B/L prices ranged from $50 to $72/mt, with QP in July, and the average price increased by $1/mt compared to the previous trading day. EQ copper (CIF B/L) prices ranged from $4/mt to $18/mt, with QP in July, and the average price remained unchanged compared to the previous trading day. Quotations referenced cargo arriving in late June and early July. Today, the US dollar copper market continued the trend from the previous day, with weak supply and demand. Only a small number of long-term contracts were replenished, and CME-registered B/Ls were traded. Downstream demand remained weak. It was heard today that domestic warrants were quoted at around $40-50, with QP in July. Domestic B/Ls for cargo arriving in early July were quoted at $55-60, with QP in July. EQ for cargo arriving in early July was quoted at $15-20, with a small volume traded at $5-10, with QP in July. B/Ls for cargo arriving in early July from Japan and South Korea were traded at $100-110, with QP in July. Overall, a large number of domestic warrant and B/L transactions remained difficult to close, and downstream purchase willingness was poor.

On June 10, the Ministry of Ecology and Environment of the People's Republic of China publicly issued the "Public Notice on Regulating Matters Related to Imported Recycled Black Mass Raw Materials from Lithium-ion Batteries and Recycled Steel Cases," with the document index number 000014672/2025-00219. The notice disclosed the HS code for recycled black mass raw materials from lithium-ion batteries as 3824999996, and the announcement will be implemented from August 1, 2025.