July 24, 2026 On Wednesday, 29 July, at 2:00 p.m. ET, the US Federal Reserve announces its rate decision. Futures markets see almost no chance of a change to the target range. For the gold market , the real event comes thirty minutes later – when Fed Chair Kevin Warsh steps up to the microphone. The starting point: four holds in a row The target range for the fed funds rate has stood at 3.50 to 3.75 percent since December 2025. The FOMC has now held steady at four consecutive meetings – most recently on 17 June, unanimously and for the first time under new Chair Kevin Warsh. What stood out at the June meeting was not the decision but the accompanying dot plot. For the first time since the easing cycle began, the median projection pointed toward a hike rather than a cut: nine of the eighteen participants saw at least one increase before year-end, eight saw no change, and only one projected a cut. Warsh submitted no dot of his own – a deliberate signal that the new Chair does not intend to be pinned to a path. At the same time, the Fed raised its 2026 inflation projection significantly and lowered its growth forecast. For gold, that was unwelcome news. The metal peaked at a record of roughly $5,600 an ounce in January and has since given back somewhere between a quarter and nearly thirty percent. It is currently trading around the $4,100 mark; on Wednesday of this week it reached roughly $4,130 intraday, a two-week high. Real yields are the lever – not the headline Gold does not respond to headline inflation. It responds to real yields, meaning what Treasuries pay after subtracting expected inflation. When real yields rise, so does the opportunity cost of holding an asset that produces no income. That mechanism explains gold's weakness this year: it was not inflation that hurt the metal, but the expectation that the Fed would answer that inflation with higher rates. This is precisely why the 28–29 July meeting is, for gold, a communications event above all. There is no updated Summary of Economic Projections and no new dot plot this time – the next projection meeting is 15–16 September. What remains is the statement and the press conference. And Warsh has made clear in the past that he wants less forward guidance and more data dependence. For investors, that means less advance signalling, more room for interpretation, and potentially higher volatility around the announcement. The data: disinflation on shaky ground Recent inflation prints have taken the sharpest edge off market expectations. After US consumer prices hit 4.2 percent in May, a three-year high, the annual rate fell to 3.5 percent in June and the core rate eased from 2.9 to 2.6 percent. Both came in below expectations. The catch: the decline was almost entirely energy-driven. Following the Middle East ceasefire in mid-June, oil and gasoline prices dropped sharply, with the energy index falling 5.7 percent month-over-month. That is not structural relief – it is a base effect with an expiry date. Energy quotes were already firming again in early July, and the geopolitical situation around Iran remains fragile, with reports of a possible temporary truce alternating with fresh escalation headlines. The labour market, meanwhile, is cooling. June nonfarm payrolls came in at roughly 57,000, well short of the roughly 110,000 expected, and the two prior months were revised down by a combined 74,000. The Fed therefore faces the classic dilemma: tighten too late and inflation expectations risk becoming unanchored; tighten too early and an already softening labour market may tip over. What the market is pricing Following the June inflation report, the implied probability of no change at the end of July has risen above 85 percent. A hike on 29 July would be a genuine surprise – and for exactly that reason it would land hard on gold. September is the more interesting question. Implied hike probabilities there have swung between roughly 50 and just under 70 percent depending on the trading day. That is the real variable: any phrasing in Warsh's press conference that opens or closes the door to September will translate straight into real yields, and from there into the gold price. Four scenarios for 29 July Scenario Probability Expected gold reaction Hawkish hold – rates unchanged, statement stresses inflation risks, September explicitly live high Pressure toward $4,000, support level tested Neutral hold – rates unchanged, emphasis on data dependence without directional signal high Sideways to slightly firmer, volatility around the press conference Dovish hold – rates unchanged, focus on the soft labour market and falling inflation medium Recovery toward $4,300 to $4,400 possible Rate hike – 25 basis point increase low Sharp setback, a move toward $3,900 conceivable For context: the World Gold Council's valuation framework currently puts fair value at around $4,100 an ounce, with a band of roughly five percent – and that calculation already assumes a hike by October. If that move fails to materialise, there is upside relative to the model value. The other side of the scale: structural demand Amid the rate-driven weakness, it is easy to overlook that physical demand has held up. Central banks bought a net 244 tonnes of gold in the first quarter of 2026 – the strongest quarter in more than a year and above the five-year average. The People's Bank of China extended its buying streak to 19 consecutive months. These buyers do not act on FedWatch probabilities but on reserve diversification, and that demand floor will be entirely unaffected by what happens on 29 July. ETF flows point the other way, with net outflows in recent months. Put simply: the Western financial investor is currently the seller, the central bank the buyer. On the forecast side, the major houses remain constructive – JP Morgan sees around $4,500 in the fourth quarter, while Goldman Sachs targets $4,900 by year-end. What this means for gold equities and junior explorers For our readers, the second derivative matters more than the first. Producers are still working with historically wide margins at $4,100 gold; the sector's operating cash flow position remains solid despite the price decline. For explorers and developers, the picture is different. They have no revenues, only capital requirements. The rate path reaches them through two channels: the discounting of future cash flows in NPV models, and the financing window. A hawkish signal on 29 July makes risk capital more expensive and narrows the window for private placements; a neutral or dovish tone widens it. This is why junior names typically react to Fed dates with a higher beta than the metal itself – to the downside as well as the upside. Anyone invested in the junior space should therefore treat 29 July less as a forecasting event and more as a volatility event. The structural case – a thin pipeline of development-ready ounces, resilient central bank demand, and reviving M&A appetite among producers – does not hinge on any single meeting. Conclusion The rate decision itself is likely to be a non-event. What counts is how Kevin Warsh characterises the balance of risks between sticky inflation and a weakening labour market, and whether he leaves the door to September open or pulls it shut. After that, attention turns to the next inflation report on 12 August and the projection meeting on 15–16 September. Source: https://goldinvest.de/en/the-upcoming-fed-decision-why-this-meeting-matters-more-to-gold-than-the-rate-call-itself

JPMorgan increased its stake in Aluminum Corporation of China (02600.HK) from 5.72% to 6.04% after acquiring 12.69 million H-shares on July 2. The transaction, valued at approximately HKD 93.99 million (USD 11.9 million), lifted the bank's total holding to about 239 million shares, according to a Hong Kong Stock Exchange filing.

04 July 2026, 10:49 UTC JPMorgan turned cautious on gold and cut its Q4 2026 forecast by roughly 25% to $4,500. The revised target drops from around $6,000, with gold seen averaging $4,300 in Q3 2026. JPMorgan kept its long-term bullish view, citing central bank buying and strong physical demand. JPMorgan just turned cautious on gold in the short term. The bank cut its Q4 2026 forecast by roughly 25% to $4,500 per ounce, down from around $6,000. The recalibration follows weaker demand from key buying sectors. This move signals fresh caution ahead, even as JPMorgan keeps its longer-term bullish thesis fully intact. JPMorgan Slashed Its Gold Forecast 25% A price forecast is an analyst’s projection of where an asset may trade over a defined future period. JPMorgan now projects an average gold price of $4,300 per ounce in the third quarter. Furthermore, it sees the metal rising to $4,500 in Q4. The cut is significant in scale. The bank previously targeted roughly $6,000 per ounce by the fourth quarter. As a result, the new $4,500 target represents a roughly 25% reduction from prior expectations for the same period. The recalibration stems from softer demand. Purchasing power has weakened among gold’s major demand centers. Moreover, the metal has become more sensitive to shifts in real interest rates, capping the near-term price ceiling. The bank described the situation as “range-bound”. As a result, traders should expect sideways price action before any second-half recovery takes hold. Other institutions remain more bullish. Goldman Sachs sees $4,900 per ounce by the end of 2026, driven by sovereign demand and emerging-market central bank diversification. Furthermore, UBS targets $5,200 over the next 12 months as markets reassess Fed policy and dollar pressure intensifies. Meanwhile, Morgan Stanley also eyes $5,200 in H2 2026, but warns that gold needs stronger ETF inflows first. The precious metal is currently trading at $4,175, up 1.26% over the last 24 hours. However, it is now down 26% from its all-time high near $5,600 reached in January 2026, according to TradingView data. Why JPMorgan’s Long-Term Bullish View Holds Despite the cut, JPMorgan’s medium- to long-term view remains firmly positive. The bank pointed to two structural forces that could drive gold prices through 2027. Each factor supports demand well beyond the current short-term consolidation phase across global markets. First, central banks worldwide continue accumulating gold reserves at an increased pace. Furthermore, physical demand for the precious metal is expected to keep strengthening over the coming months. Both trends provide a durable floor under prices across the entire outlook. Second, institutional investors continue to allocate tangible portions of their portfolios to gold for hedging purposes. Moreover, that pattern shows no sign of reversing. As a result, JPMorgan expects gold to retain its role as both a safe-haven asset and an alternative reserve currency. The JPMorgan forecast also carries implications for crypto markets. Gold and Bitcoin have traded as competing macro hedges throughout 2025 and into 2026. As a result, a “range-bound” gold price could potentially shift some institutional capital toward the crypto market in the short term. However, the bank’s long-term bullish stance means gold will not lose its importance as a store of value any time soon. The near-term caution simply reflects a temporary pause rather than a structural break in the broader multi-year uptrend. Source： https://beincrypto.com/jpmorgan-changes-gold-price-outlook-q4-2026/

SMM July 4 news: Metal market: Last Friday night, domestic base metals nearly all rose. SHFE copper gained 0.14%, SHFE aluminum rose 0.6%, SHFE lead added 0.38%, SHFE zinc increased 0.87%, and SHFE tin jumped 3.8%. SHFE nickel edged down 0.02%. In addition, the most-traded alumina futures contract fell 0.07%, and the most-traded cast aluminum contract rose 0.24%. Last Friday night, ferrous metals mostly closed higher. Stainless steel dropped 1.85%, iron ore rose 0.27%, rebar gained 0.39%, and hot-rolled coil added 0.4%. Coking coal and coke: the most-traded coking coal contract rose 1.21%, and the most-traded coke contract rose 1.6%. Last Friday night, in the overseas market, LME base metals rose across the board. LME copper gained 0.54%, LME aluminum added 0.23%, LME lead rose 1.04%, LME zinc climbed 2.17%, LME tin surged 4.99%, and LME nickel rose 0.4%. Last Friday night, precious metals : COMEX gold rose 1.49%, posting a weekly gain of 2.22%; COMEX silver gained 2.87%, closing the week higher with a 5.26% increase. Last Friday night, the most-traded SHFE gold contract rose 0.81%, ending the week up 3.5%; the most-traded SHFE silver contract gained 1.61%, posting a weekly rise of 8.82%. JPMorgan said that in the short term, gold prices may be capped by weakening demand and are likely to remain moving sideways overall. The main reasons are weaker purchasing power in key demand areas and renewed sensitivity of gold to changes in real interest rates, which may limit further price gains. However, the bank maintains a medium- to long-term bullish outlook. It expects gold to gradually rebound in H2 2026, with an average price of around $4,300 per ounce in Q3, rising to about $4,500 in Q4. Looking ahead to 2027, JPMorgan believes the rally may continue, driven mainly by continued central bank buying, stronger physical demand, and persistent long-term structural allocation needs. These factors will support gold's long-term appeal as a safe-haven and reserve asset. As of 7:41 a.m. on July 4, last Friday night's closing quotations: Macro front China: [Li Qiang: Take more forceful measures and actions in building a modern industrial system, accelerating high-level self-reliance in science and technology, building a strong domestic market, and deepening reforms and expanding opening up] On July 1, Premier Li Qiang, also secretary of the CPC Leadership Group of the State Council, presided over a meeting of the group to study and implement the spirit of General Secretary Xi Jinping's important speech at the celebration of the 105th anniversary of the founding of the Communist Party of China and Xi Jinping Thought on Party Building. The meeting emphasized the need to strive for new achievements in high-quality development, strengthen initiative and a sense of urgency in work, and take more robust measures and actions in building a modern industrial system, accelerating self-reliance in high-level science and technology, developing a strong domestic market, and deepening reform and expanding opening up. It called for taking solid action, shouldering responsibilities, and striving to carry forward the baton of history, so as to make greater contributions to building a strong country and achieving national rejuvenation. (Xinhua News Agency) [The State Council: Increasing Efforts in Energy Conservation and Carbon Reduction Transformation in Key Industries such as Steel and Non-Ferrous Metals to Achieve Energy Savings of More Than 150 Million mt of Standard Coal] Recently, the State Council issued the “15th Five-Year Plan for Building a Beautiful China,” clarifying the overall requirements, targets and indicators, key tasks, and major projects for comprehensively advancing the building of a Beautiful China during the 15th Five-Year Plan period. The Plan proposes that by 2030, the quality of the ecological environment will be comprehensively improved, and new significant progress will be made in building a Beautiful China. Green production and lifestyles will be essentially in place, the carbon peak target will be met as scheduled, total emissions of major pollutants will continue to decline, comprehensive solid waste management capacity and level will be significantly enhanced, urban and rural living environments will be notably improved, the diversity, stability, and sustainability of ecosystems will be continuously strengthened, nuclear and radiation safety levels will keep rising, national ecological security will be effectively guaranteed, an ecological and environmental governance system adapted to the requirements of building a Beautiful China will be steadily refined, a number of demonstration models for building a Beautiful China will be established, and the people’s sense of gain, happiness, and security from the ecological environment will be continuously enhanced. It also makes an outlook on the 2035 targets and proposes accelerating the formation of the overall layout for building a Beautiful China. (Xinhua News Agency) The Plan mentions increasing efforts in energy conservation and carbon reduction transformation in key industries such as thermal power, steel, non-ferrous metals, petrochemicals, chemicals, and building materials, promoting and popularizing energy-saving and low-carbon technologies, and achieving energy savings of more than 150 million mt of standard coal. With the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region and surrounding areas as the focus, industrial coal-fired boilers with a capacity of 65 steam tonnes per hour or below will be gradually phased out. The substitution of clean energy for coal-fired boilers and industrial kilns in industries such as food, textiles, and papermaking will be advanced. [Ministry of Finance and Two Other Departments: Adjusting Vehicle and Vessel Tax Preferential Policies for Energy-Saving Vehicles and NEVs] On July 2, the Ministry of Finance, the State Taxation Administration, and the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued an announcement on adjusting vehicle and vessel tax preferential policies for energy-saving vehicles and new energy vehicles. It states that from January 1, 2027, the policy of halving vehicle and vessel tax for energy-saving vehicles will be abolished, and the exemption from vehicle and vessel tax for pure electric commercial vehicles, plug-in hybrid (including extended-range) vehicles, and fuel cell commercial vehicles will be abolished. Vehicles of the above types newly acquired by taxpayers or acquired before the implementation of this announcement shall be subject to vehicle and vessel tax in accordance with the Vehicle and Vessel Tax Law of the People’s Republic of China, its implementation regulations, and other relevant provisions. [PBOC: To conduct 1,000 billion yuan outright reverse repo operation on July 6, with 3-month tenor] To keep banking system liquidity ample, on July 6, 2026, the People's Bank of China will conduct a 1,000 billion yuan outright reverse repo operation via a fixed-quantity, interest rate tender with multiple-price winning bids, with a tenor of 3 months (91 days), maturing on October 5, 2026 (adjusted for holidays if it falls on a holiday). (Jinshi Data APP) On the dollar front: Overnight last Friday, the US dollar index rose 0.03% to 100.91. On the weekly chart: The dollar index fell on a weekly basis, down 0.44% for the week, its biggest weekly decline since mid-April. The decline occurred as US June employment data cooled noticeably, leading the market to lower expectations for near-term Fed rate hikes, and the dollar index fell this week. Against a weaker dollar backdrop, the euro rose to $1.1440, up about 0.5% for the week; sterling rose to $1.3352, up about 1.1% for the week, its best performance in nearly three months. The yen rebounded from near a 40-year low, with USD/JPY once pulling back to around 161, though still at elevated levels. Japan continued to release signals of forex intervention, with finance and cabinet officials stating they are closely monitoring markets and remain prepared to intervene. Analysts pointed out that the dollar's movement has clearly been influenced by employment data and interest rate expectations, and if subsequent economic data continue to weaken, the dollar could still face further pressure. However, whether the yen can sustain its rebound still depends on the US-Japan interest rate differential and Japan's policy actions. (Jinshi Data APP) "Fed mouthpiece" Nick Timiraos said: Trump stated that he considers Fed Chairman Warsh to be on the dovish side within the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). A day earlier, White House National Economic Council Director Hassett made similar remarks; a week earlier, US Treasury Secretary Bessent said he hoped the Fed would remain "open-minded" on inflation and expects the Fed to ease policy this year. A new era of "forward guidance"... (Jinshi Data APP) BNP Paribas Chief Economist Isabel Mateos y Lago said: "If July's nonfarm payrolls are very strong, close to or exceeding 130,000, then I think the July meeting will be full of suspense. The uncertainty may not be as high now, but in my view, the case for a Fed rate hike remains valid." Ahead of the July 4 holiday, short-term interest rate futures markets expected a roughly 20% probability of a Fed rate hike at the July 29 rate decision, down from 33% before the release of the payrolls report. Markets still expect the US Fed to raise rates by 25 basis points this year, but not until December at the earliest. For the ECB, Lagarde said, "The baseline expectation remains another rate hike in September. But it is worth noting that Governing Council members speaking at the Sintra meeting did not rule out skipping this additional hike." She warned that the normalization of energy supply could take six months or longer to take effect, and eurozone inflation could accelerate again. Even so, she also believes that consumer prices outside energy-affected areas will not face pressure. Allianz Chief Economist Ludovic Subran said, "The US non-farm payrolls data was actually weak, but I still think inflation will peak above 3.7%, and AI, fiscal stimulus and the energy sector are still supporting economic growth. The US Fed may have to raise rates in September. I think this is where the real divergence between Europe and the US lies." Subran believes that after last month's hike, the ECB will not act again. "That was an insurance hike, but judging from the current data, it seems that moment has passed," he said. "The trauma effect of the war (with Iran) takes time to manifest. The economy is still bearing the costs of war, but the situation is much better than a few weeks ago."(Jin10 Data APP) Other currencies: ECB Governing Council member Mullan said that as falling oil prices ease price pressures in the eurozone, the ECB is in a favorable position after last month's rate hike. Mullan said that while it is too early to predict the next two meetings in July and September, officials have made clear that "we will not enter a new rate-hiking cycle." Mullan said, "For now, we are in a favorable position. The balance of risks is also at a reasonable level." Mullan added, "Falling oil prices will ease inflation pressure in the services sector," and "we have not yet seen second-round effects."(Jin10 Data APP) On the macro front: This week will see the release of Switzerland June seasonally adjusted unemployment rate, Eurozone July Sentix Investor Confidence Index, Eurozone May PPI m/m, Eurozone May retail sales m/m, US June S&P Global Services PMI Final, US June ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI, US June Global Supply Chain Pressure Index, Germany May seasonally adjusted industrial output m/m, UK June Halifax seasonally adjusted house price index m/m, France May trade balance, US ADP employment change for the week ended June 20, US May trade balance, China June foreign exchange reserves, Japan May trade balance, New Zealand interest rate decision for July 8, US May wholesale sales m/m, China June CPI y/y, China June PPI y/y, Germany May seasonally adjusted trade balance, US initial jobless claims for the week ending July 4, US June existing home sales annualized, Germany June CPI m/m final, France June CPI m/m final, Switzerland June consumer confidence index, Canada June employment change, China June M2 money supply y/y, and other data. Additionally, events to watch this week include: a 900 billion yuan outright reverse repo maturing today; speeches from Fed Governor Waller, ECB Executive Board member Schnabel, ECB Governing Council member Wunsch, and Deputy Governor of Sveriges Riksbank Seim; Turkey hosts the NATO summit through July 8; the Reserve Bank of New Zealand announces its interest rate decision; RBNZ Governor Bremman holds a monetary policy press conference; the Fed releases minutes of its monetary policy meeting; the ECB releases minutes of its June monetary policy meeting; FOMC permanent voter and New York Fed President Williams delivers a speech; and 2026 FOMC voter and Dallas Fed President Logan delivers a speech. Crude Oil: In overnight trading last Friday, both oil futures edged up slightly, with WTI up 0.13% and Brent up 0.19%. On the weekly chart: WTI futures fell for a fourth consecutive week, down 0.65% for the week; Brent futures also declined for a fourth straight week, down 0.91% for the week. The crude oil market is relatively stable, with Brent stabilizing near $72 per barrel as the market weighs the supply outlook around the Strait of Hormuz and the progress of US-Iran negotiations. (Wall Street News) Data from Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) show: In the week ending June 30, Brent crude futures speculators cut their net long positions by 34,704 contracts to 55,634 contracts. Gasoil futures speculators cut their net long positions by 2,664 contracts to 57,852 contracts. (Jin10 Data APP) Data show that oil exports from the Gulf region in June increased by more than 3 million barrels per day (bpd) from May, exceeding 10 million bpd, but still 40% below pre-war levels. The UAE led the recovery in oil markets, enabling millions of barrels of crude stranded in the Gulf region to enter international markets, allowing producers to raise output and push oil prices down to pre-war levels. Kpler data show that combined crude and condensate exports from Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Kuwait, Iraq and Iran rose by more than 3.5 million bpd from May to 10.07 million bpd. Vortexa, another cargo analytics firm, estimated June shipments at 10.2 million bpd, up from 7 million bpd in May, but still well below the 16.5 million bpd recorded a year earlier. According to data from Kpler, Vortexa and LSEG, the UAE’s crude exports reached a record 3.7 million to 3.8 million bpd in June, more than 1 million bpd above May’s level. (Jin10 Data APP) Additionally, three sources said that Venezuela’s largest refinery, the 645,000-bpd Amuay refinery, has resumed operations after a power outage on Friday and is currently processing about 140,000 bpd of crude, with the fluid catalytic cracking (FCC) unit also back online. Following two earthquakes last week that caused heavy casualties, multiple refineries in Venezuela were affected by power outages. Sources also said that the El Palito refinery, with a daily processing capacity of 146,000 barrels, has had power restored, but staff have not yet been able to restart the production units. (Jinshi Data APP) A Reuters survey showed that OPEC’s crude oil production rebounded sharply in June, up about 3.3 million barrels per day MoM to 19.43 million barrels per day, a clear rebound from May’s more-than-two-decade low, but still well below quota levels. The recovery in output mainly came from Gulf countries restoring supply, with Kuwait posting the largest increase; Iran, Saudi Arabia, and Iraq also raised output in tandem. Nigeria and Libya likewise made small increases. The UAE exited OPEC on May 1 and is no longer included in the statistics. The report noted that the earlier Iran war and the effective blockade of the Strait of Hormuz had disrupted supply; the US subsequently lifted restrictions on vessels at Iranian ports, helping some output recover. Although OPEC+ had planned to increase production in June, the plan was not fully implemented due to the war. Overall, global crude oil supply was being repaired, but had not yet returned to normal levels. (Jinshi Data APP) Recommended Reading:

Jul 2, 2026 4:17 PM EDT Gold investors were bracing for more sluggishness. Following months of pressure, investors expected the next big call on the shiny yellow metal to be much more defensive, especially as rate-cut hopes faded and the dollar regained some bite. For context, gold was recently trading near the low $4,000s, with spot prices at around $4,064 per ounce at the time of writing. Gold price rebounded amid weak jobs data, lower oil prices, and Fed Chair Kevin Warsh ’s latest comments. Speaking in Portugal, according to Investopedia , Warsh said inflation risks were diminishing somewhat. While it was far from a clear signal of a rate cut, the comments gave gold a short-term lift and injected life back into the debasement trade. Nevertheless, Goldman Sachs isn’t treating the recent pullback as the end of the gold trade. The bank’s latest message is much more measured but adds to the bull case for higher gold prices. Goldman was focusing on a deeper source of demand that does not move like a short-term ETF trade. Though gold has lost momentum, Goldman says the bigger force behind the rally remains intact. Wall Street price targets for gold prices Goldman Sachs : $4,900/oz by end-2026. Goldman’s leans on sovereign demand and emerging-market central bank diversification . JPMorgan : $6,000/oz by Q4 2026. JPMorgan sees gold pushing higher as central bank demand and macro uncertainty remain supportive. UBS : $5,200/oz over the next 12 months. UBS says gold can rebound as markets rethink Fed policy, dollar pressure, and central bank buying. Morgan Stanley : $5,200/oz in H2 2026. Morgan Stanley says gold needs stronger ETF inflows to make that target realistic. Bank of America : $4,800/oz by Q4 2026. BofA trimmed its near-term outlook as investor demand weakened and Fed headwinds grew. Sources: Reuters, Kitco News, Business Insider, Investing, JPMorgan Global Research, and Morgan Stanley/Bank of America notes cited by Kitco. What Goldman Sachs said about gold’s next move Goldman Sachs just drew a clear line between gold’s pullback and its long-term thesis. Samantha Dart, co-head of global commodities research at Goldman Sachs, argued that gold’s sharp four-month decline doesn’t mean the bull case is wrapped up and that she still sees room for the metal to climb toward its $4,900/oz end-2026 forecast, according to Kitco News . Gold had been one of Wall Street ’s strongest momentum stories, stoked by inflation fears, central-bank buying, and geopolitical risk. The setup then took a major blow amid higher-rate expectations; a stronger dollar and softer ETF demand weighed on prices. Goldman’s point is that the primary structural buyer hasn’t disappeared. Dart acknowledged that a hawkish Fed has hurt the debasement trade and pressured ETF demand. But Goldman is still leaning on central-bank buying, especially emerging-market reserve diversification, anchoring its forecast. She wrote that “EM central bank diversification” remains the key driver, with the post-2022 freezing of Russia’s reserves influencing how some central banks think about gold. The World Gold Council data supports that argument. The 2026 Central Bank Gold Reserves Survey found that 89% of respondents expect global central bank gold reserves to rise over the next 12 months, while a record 45% expect their own institutions to increase their holdings. It’s important to note that in May, according to Yahoo Finance , Goldman revised their central-bank gold-demand model after finding official trade data was missing some sovereign buying. Consequently, its 12-month purchase forecast jumped to nearly 50 tonnes per month from 29 tonnes per month, and the bank now sees roughly 60 tonnes per month through 2026. Goldman said UK trade data understated London vault outflows since August 2025, while geopolitical uncertainty and diversification demand kept underlying interest strong. The bank had slashed its $5,400/oz year-end 2026 target by $500 to $4,900 in June, citing the reality of a hawkish Fed. What has to happen for gold to reach $4,900 For gold to reach Goldman’s $4,900/oz target, the market needs a lot more than sovereign buying. It needs pressure from rates, the dollar, and investor flows to ease simultaneously. The first gate is U.S. labor data. Reuters reported June payrolls rose just 57,000, well below the 110,000 economists expected, while May was revised down to 129,000 from 172,000. That sort of slowdown could help gold if it reduces market confidence that the Fed has to stay hawkish. The second aspect to consider is policy language. According to MoneyControl , Fed Chair Kevin Warsh helped gold rebound by saying inflation risks had eased, but he also reaffirmed the Fed’s 2% target and warned against assuming looser policy. That means gold needs cooler inflation and softer jobs data to become a trend rather than a one-day reaction. The third point to consider is the return of private money. The World Gold Council said global gold ETF flows slowed to a “trickle” in May, with ETF assets down 2% month over month to $604 billion. Without stronger ETF demand, gold may recover, but the move toward $4,900 becomes harder to sustain. source： https://www.thestreet.com/investing/goldman-sachs-delivers-honest-verdict-on-golds-selloff

Published: 5 days ago One builds MAS-backed vaulting for central banks, the other opens a pipeline to Shanghai. Singapore and Hong Kong are pursuing different strategies to bolster their positions as precious metals hubs , with Singapore expanding clearing and vaulting services for international investors and Hong Kong building on its ties to Mainland China's bullion market. Singapore is viewed as a neutral jurisdiction with established storage facilities and a strong wealth management sector, Dick Poon, general manager at Heraeus Precious Metals Hong Kong, said in an emailed reply to questions. He said Hong Kong's advantage lies in its connection with Mainland China's bullion market through its integration with the Shanghai Gold Exchange. Singapore's strategy gathered pace in June when Deputy Prime Minister and Monetary Authority of Singapore Chairman Gan Kim Yong announced at the Asia-Pacific Precious Metals Conference that Singapore Exchange Ltd. would launch an over-the-counter clearing system for Loco Singapore gold by the end of 2026. The system will clear physical gold stored and settled in Singapore and will be backed by DBS Bank Ltd., Deutsche Bank AG, ICBC Standard Bank Plc, JPMorgan Chase & Co., Oversea-Chinese Banking Corp. Ltd., and United Overseas Bank Ltd. Gan also said the Monetary Authority of Singapore would begin offering gold vaulting services to foreign central banks and sovereign entities from October 2026. Singapore will remove the 5% cap on physical investment precious metals under selected tax incentive schemes for eligible funds and single-family offices, whilst Singapore Exchange is studying a physically deliverable gold futures contract. Joshua Rotbart, founder of J. Rotbart & Co., said regulations are no longer the main factor separating Singapore and Hong Kong. "The regulations are almost the same," he told Singapore Business Review via Zoom. "It's more about the nature of the market and the perception of risk." He said investors typically choose Singapore for long-term gold storage and wealth preservation , whilst Hong Kong has developed into a trading centre serving Mainland China. Singapore's latest measures build on work launched in March, when the Monetary Authority of Singapore and the Singapore Bullion Market Association formed the Gold Market Development Working Group to review clearing, settlement, storage, logistics, custody, and investment products. Hong Kong has also stepped up efforts this year, but with a stronger focus on the mainland. The Financial Services and the Treasury Bureau (FSTB) signed a cooperation agreement with the Shanghai Gold Exchange in January to develop a gold central clearing system and deepen cooperation between the two markets. The government also plans to expand Hong Kong's gold storage capacity to more than 2,000 tonnes within three years. The state-owned Hong Kong Precious Metals Central Clearing Company Ltd. held its first board meeting in April. Financial Services and Treasury Secretary Christopher Hui said preparations for the clearing system were progressing, with trial operations scheduled to begin this year. The bureau also announced in June that the Shanghai Gold Exchange had opened its first International Board-certified offshore gold delivery vault in Hong Kong, letting international investors take delivery of eligible contracts outside Mainland China. Albert Cheng, CEO at the Singapore Bullion Market Association, said Project Lion 2 aims to strengthen Singapore's gold market through improvements to clearing, storage, custody, and investment products. "By strengthening clearing, custody, vaulting, and product development, we can complement existing centres and deepen institutional participation," he added. Source： https://sbr.com.sg/exclusive/singapore-hong-kong-take-rival-paths-capture-global-gold-trade

Higher copper prices are accelerating the adoption of aluminum wiring across the automotive industry. Ferrari, BMW, Stellantis, Tesla, XPeng, Xiaomi and AVATR have expanded the use of aluminum conductors in selected vehicle models to reduce costs and vehicle weight. Aluminum costs about one-quarter as much as copper and weighs only around one-third as much, making it increasingly attractive for EVs. JPMorgan expects aluminum to replace about 6% of global copper demand by 2030 as material substitution accelerates.

Ferrari, BMW, Tesla and several Chinese EV makers are increasingly using aluminium wiring as a substitute for copper. JPMorgan estimates the trend could affect around 2% of global copper demand this year and potentially around 6% by 2030, driven by high copper prices, lower aluminium costs and vehicle lightweighting needs.

Ferrari and BMW are introducing aluminum wiring into new vehicle models, joining Tesla and several Chinese EV manufacturers in replacing part of their copper wiring with aluminum. Aluminum costs roughly one-quarter as much as copper and offers significant weight savings, helping improve vehicle efficiency and driving range. JPMorgan noted that aluminum substitution is accelerating across multiple sectors—including automotive, power cables and home appliances—and estimated that the broader substitution trend could affect around 2% of global copper demand in 2026. Under a scenario where copper supply remains tight and prices stay structurally elevated, the bank projects that as much as 6% of annual copper demand could be replaced by aluminum by 2030. However, due to copper's superior electrical conductivity and performance in high-specification applications, it is expected to remain the dominant conductor material in the near term.

Published on: May 29, 2026 Hong Kong is set to fire the starting gun on a gold clearing mechanism this July, a move that deepens its lead over Singapore and sharpens its challenge to London’s centuries-old grip on the global bullion trade. The clearing platform lies at the heart of Hong Kong’s push to set regional gold prices. By boosting liquidity and enabling a local benchmark, it marks the city’s most concrete step yet toward becoming a full-fledged international gold hub. Singapore, by contrast, has signalled similar ambitions but offered no timeline — leaving Hong Kong with a clear first-mover edge. Powering that ambition is mainland China, the world’s largest gold consumer. Massive, steady cross-border bullion flows already anchor Hong Kong’s hub status. Now a wave of retail-friendly moves by mainland banks — slashing risk ratings on gold products, extending night trading hours, cutting fees and upgrading investment plans — is lowering the bar for investors and funnelling fresh demand straight into the Hong Kong pipeline. On the ground, the city is rapidly stitching together a one-stop ecosystem spanning trading, refining and storage. A cluster of top-tier precious metals refiners already operates here. Mainland refiner Dianjin International is expanding its Hong Kong footprint with a new facility due online in 2026. That same year, logistics giant SF Holding plans to build a dedicated gold vault at Hong Kong International Airport, plugging a key storage gap. Singapore, with just a single London Good Delivery-accredited refinery, simply cannot match that industrial breadth. The two rivals are betting on different strengths. Singapore leans on high-capacity, ultra-secure vaults to attract gold storage and haven flows. Hong Kong, leveraging its position as the gateway to mainland China and North Asia, is drilling into the core of the value chain — trading, refining and circulation — to capture the pricing action. Analysts flag the summer lull in gold markets as an ideal window for Hong Kong to build reserves and iron out the new clearing system with minimal friction. Financial heavyweights are lining up behind the play. JPMorgan, UBS and Citigroup, alongside local Hong Kong banks, are actively building out their gold market presence, while Chinese banks continue to bulk up precious metals teams. Mainland securities houses, futures firms and fintech players are also streaming into the city, staffing trading desks and hiring talent — all chipping away at London’s historical lock on the global gold trade. Underpinning it all is Hong Kong’s broader financial firepower. The city recently leapfrogged Switzerland to become the world’s largest cross-border wealth hub. Fuelled by mainland inflows, deep equity markets and two-way capital channels, it has the raw ingredients to nurture a mature gold futures market — one that could pool global capital, offer price-risk hedges and amplify the city’s voice in regional gold pricing. The big picture is clear: the gold industry’s centre of gravity continues to tilt eastward. With unmatched mainland demand, a full-spectrum supply chain and deepening institutional muscle, Hong Kong is rapidly evolving from a regional trading post into an Asian nerve centre that combines trading, refining, distribution and pricing — bringing the vision of an Asian gold hub into sharp relief. Source： https://nai500.com/blog/2026/05/hong-kong-pulls-ahead-in-asias-gold-hub-race-with-july-clearing-launch/