[SMM Analysis: Key Anchor in Great Power Rivalry: The U.S. "Project Vault" and the Changing Resource Landscape in Latin America] While the second phase of Chinese company's Mirador copper mine in Ecuador remains mired in a 'completed but awaiting approval' deadlock, 10,000 kilometers away in Washington, the President, alongside the Export-Import Bank of the United States, is announcing a historic supply chain security initiative named 'Project Vault.'

[SMM Analysis: The "Key Anchor Point" in Great Power Rivalry: The US "Treasury Plan" and the Resource Reshuffle in Latin America] As the second phase of the Mirador copper mine project in Ecuador, developed by a Chinese enterprise, remains stuck in a "built but awaiting approval" deadlock, ten thousand kilometers away in Washington, the US Export-Import Bank, together with the President, is announcing a historic supply chain security initiative called the "Treasury Plan." In the pause and the start, a global covert battle over critical minerals such as copper, lithium, cobalt, and gallium is moving from behind the scenes to the forefront.

[Smelter procurement sentiment remained low, TCs held steady in multiple regions]: On a weekly basis, the SMM Zn50 domestic weekly TC average was flat MoM at 1,500 yuan/mt in metal content, while the SMM imported zinc concentrate index fell $0.62/dmt MoM to $24.88/dmt...

According to the release from Ivanhoe Mines on February 3, Ivanhoe Mines is engaged in in-depth discussions with Gécamines and Mercuria, planning to supply critical minerals from the ultra-high-grade Kipushi zinc-lead-germanium-gallium mine to the US. Under the proposed agreement, Mercuria's current offtake of Kipushi zinc concentrates will be allocated to the trading division of Gécamines, and the excess production resulting from the successful debottlenecking and expansion of Kipushi in Q4 2025 will also be allocated. The concentrates produced from the Kipushi mine also contain significant amounts of germanium and gallium. Gécamines has the potential to be responsible for the sales of up to 50% of the mine's concentrate production, including sales to the US.

According to an announcement by Ivanhoe Mines, the Kamoa-Kakula project aims to achieve copper production of 380,000 to 420,000 tonnes in 2026 and 500,000 to 540,000 tonnes in 2027, with the medium-term copper production target maintained at 550,000 tonnes. In terms of recent progress, the dewatering efforts at the Kakula mine are proceeding smoothly (70% completion on the west side and 60% on the east side), laying the groundwork for resuming production. As dewatering advances, mining in the higher-grade (3.5%–4.0%) central area will commence in mid-December, which is expected to drive overall output and profitability. At the Kakula mine, approximately 6 million tonnes of ore are planned to be mined in 2026, primarily from the west side, with production increasing to 7–8 million tonnes in 2027. At the Kamoa mine, the focus will shift from supplying primarily the Phase I and II concentrators to prioritizing supply for the Phase III concentrator, while also supplementing Phase I and II. Mining output is expected to rise from the current 6.5 million tonnes per year to over 10 million tonnes per year by 2027. The total processing capacity of the Phase I, II, and III concentrators will reach 17 million tonnes per year starting in 2027. Additionally, following the announcement of the commissioning of the Kamoa-Kakula copper smelter on December 1, 2025, copper sales in 2026 are projected to exceed copper production, as on-site inventories of unsold copper concentrate are expected

SMM Morning Meeting Summary: Overnight, LME copper opened at $9,686.5/mt, rose initially and hit a high of $9,713/mt, then fluctuated downward and touched a low of $9,647.5/mt. It rebounded slightly at the end of the session and closed at $9,670/mt, down 0.26%. Trading volume reached 13,000 lots, and open interest reached 293,000 lots. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE copper 2507 contract opened at 78,600 yuan/mt, hit a high of 78,690 yuan/mt at the beginning of the session, then fluctuated downward and touched a low of 78,360 yuan/mt during the session. It rebounded all the way at the end of the session and closed at 78,560 yuan/mt, up 0.04%. Trading volume reached 20,000 lots, and open interest reached 182,000 lots.

According to a report by Mining.com, Ivanhoe Mines announced that its Kakula West copper mine in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) has resumed production after a temporary suspension lasting one month. This underground mine is part of the company's Kamoa-Kakula copper joint venture. On May 18, the mine was forced to suspend production due to severe water inflow caused by seismic activity in the region. The Kamoa-Kakula joint venture is Africa's largest copper mine, with Ivanhoe holding a 39.6% stake. Analysts believe that once the necessary pumping and repair work is completed, the mine should be able to resume production. Mining activities in the eastern section are also expected to commence immediately, with a focus on advancing from existing stopes to new areas. In a statement, Robert Friedland, the company's Executive Chairman, said, "We are grateful and thankful to our team for their rapid response in stabilizing the water table at Kakula and resuming mining on the west side." "The team quickly secured the critical equipment needed to remove water from the entire mine, while also preparing to mine a high-grade area in the east." With the resumption of production at the Kakula copper mine, Ivanhoe has set new production targets for the Kamoa-Kakula joint venture in 2025: 370,000 to 420,000 mt of copper concentrates. Based on the midpoint, this projection represents a 28% decrease from the previous production target set in January (520,000 to 580,000 mt). Ivanhoe stated that the downward revision in production expectations takes into account the potential impact of recent seismic activity and related disruptions at the Kakula mine. Several risk factors, such as further seismic activity and infrastructure damage, were also highlighted as considerations. Additionally, the company's management has withdrawn the production target of approximately 600,000 mt for 2026, pending further evaluation. Friedland emphasized, "Although it is premature to establish production plans for 2026 and 2027, the future of the Kamoa-Kakula joint venture remains bright." As previously disclosed, the Phase 1 and Phase 2 beneficiation plants at Kakula are still operating at half of their capacity, processing surface ore inventory. The beneficiation plants are expected to restore their capacity for the remainder of the year as mining volumes increase in the western section of the mine, according to Ivanhoe. Meanwhile, the Kamoa underground mine, as well as the adjacent Phase 3 beneficiation plant, are operating well. With the necessary copper concentrate supply in place, the on-site smelter is expected to commence operations in September, with the first products to be produced in October 2025.

According to foreign media reports, Ivanhoe Mines announced that it had resumed production at the western part of the Kakula copper mine in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC). The underground mine is part of the Kamoa-Kakula copper mine complex. On May 18, the mine was forced to suspend production due to severe water inflow caused by seismic activity in the region. The Kamoa-Kakula copper mine complex is the largest copper mine in Africa, and Ivanhoe holds a 39.6% stake in the mine.

[SMM Analysis: When It Rains, It Pours - Global Copper Concentrates Supply-Demand Balance After the Earthquake at KK Mine] At the end of May, Chinese smelters and Antofagasta commenced mid-year negotiations. In the first round of negotiations this year, miners had already offered a midpoint price of -US$15 to the smelters. This figure was significantly lower than the US$0/dmt that had circulated in the market in late April. According to SMM, many raw material procurement teams from leading smelters in the CSPT group indicated that the negotiations were fraught with difficulties, and it was exceptionally challenging to secure a favorable figure.

According to the preliminary findings released by Ivanhoe Mines, based on preliminary geotechnical survey results, ore blocks originally designated for secondary mining began to be produced in a cascading manner, leading to stress redistribution onto regional pillars, suggesting that seismic activity appears to be self-induced by the mine.