According to data from the General Administration of Customs, China exported 12,052.46 mt of copper enamelled wire in January 2026, down 1.19% YoY; exports were 10,239.85 mt in February, up 39.64% YoY; cumulative exports in January-February 2026 reached 22,292.31 mt, up 14.14% YoY on a cumulative basis. (HS code 85441100)

Middle East tensions have sparked a massive steel trade "mismatch." Iran's blocked exports created a 2.3-million-ton billet vacuum in Southeast Asia, while the Red Sea crisis stalled China's flat steel shipments to the Gulf. Consequently, China and India are rapidly absorbing SEA's diverted billet orders. SMM projects that blocked flat steel returning to China's domestic market, combined with surging overseas billet demand, will accelerate the narrowing of the domestic HRC-rebar spread.

It is worth noting that the overall overseas ternary cathode demand outlook for 2026 remains subdued. The U.S. market has been sluggish since the fourth quarter of last year, prompting many overseas manufacturers to place their hopes on the European market.

[China Iron Ore Brief Comment: Iron Ore Concentrates Prices in West Liaoning May Have Some Room to Rise] Domestic iron ore prices in west Liaoning were relatively stable, with the ex-factory prices of locally produced 66-grade iron ore concentrates, wet basis and excluding tax, at 740-750 yuan/mt; some local mines and beneficiation plants were still suspended, and overall iron ore concentrates resources remained relatively tight, providing some support for local iron ore concentrates prices; Demand side, steel mills were mostly operating normally as planned, for local iron

From January to February 2026, China's air conditioner production reached 40.118 million units, up 0.7% YoY. From January to February, national refrigerator production reached 16.643 million units, up 6.5% YoY. From January to February, national washing machine production reached 18.579 million units, down 0.8% YoY. From January to February, national color TV production reached 24.678 million units, up 2.3% YoY. In February 2026, China exported 6.84 million air conditioners, up 1.2% YoY; cumulative exports from January to February totaled 13.15 million units, down 6.5% YoY. Refrigerator exports reached 6.93 million units in February, up 26.6% YoY; cumulative exports from January to February totaled 14.91 million units, up 18.6% YoY. Washing machine exports reached 2.7 million units in February, up 18.1% YoY; cumulative exports from January to February totaled 6.1 million units, up 11.8% YoY. LCD TV exports reached 8.53 million units in February, up 34.4% YoY; cumulative exports from January to February totaled 17.69 million units, up 17.2% YoY.

This week, ferrous metals fluctuated at highs, with raw material ore and coking products outperforming steel. Against the backdrop of the escalating conflict in the Middle East, ore and coking products held up well, supported by higher shipping costs and transmission from coal and coke as energy substitutes. In the second half of the week, supply and demand data for hot-rolled coil and rebar were released. The increase in rebar inventory slowed markedly; however, hot-rolled coil demand was lower than the same period last year, and the pace of post-holiday recovery was relatively slow, leaving steel as a whole with limited upward momentum, while futures retreated after rapid rise. In the spot market, trading in the Chinese market was average this week.....

According to customs data, China’s exports of bismuth trioxide in January 2026 were 677.56 mt, versus 570.97 mt in December 2025, showing a clear MoM increase. Market participants said that, judging from the overall changes in exports, China’s bismuth oxide exports had trended upward in almost every month since September 2025, indicating that bismuth oxide enterprises still maintained strong export momentum and that demand outside China was also increasing significantly.

According to customs data, China’s bismuth trioxide exports were 753.74 mt in February 2026, versus 677.56 mt in January 2026, continuing to increase MoM. Looking at the overall change in exports, since September 2025, China’s bismuth oxide exports had risen almost every month, indicating that bismuth oxide enterprises still had strong export willingness and demand outside China was also increasing significantly. Market participants believed that although February was affected by the relatively long Chinese New Year holiday, exports still continued to rise, so there was a strong likelihood that China’s bismuth trioxide exports would continue to increase in March.

[Consumption Expectations Were Gradually Realized, Operating Rates of Galvanising Producers Continued to Increase]: This week, the operating rate of the galvanizing industry was 59.7, up 6.69 percentage points WoW. Raw material side, zinc prices pulled back sharply this week, galvanising enterprises actively fixed prices to stockpile, and zinc ingot inventory at galvanising enterprises increased significantly.

This week, prices of 304 stainless steel scrap off-cuts in east China strengthened to 10,000-10,100 yuan/mt; prices of stainless steel scrap off-cuts of the same specification in Foshan also rose, with the price range at 9,600-9,900 yuan/mt. In terms of raw material production costs, the current cost of producing stainless steel entirely from stainless steel scrap was about 14,098.03 yuan/mt, while the cost of production using only high-grade NPI was 14,786.98 yuan/mt. This week, stainless steel scrap prices fell back, mainly driven by macro sentiment disruptions, weak futures, and pressure on both supply and demand. Escalating geopolitical conflicts, coupled with hawkish remarks from the US Fed, dragged SS futures into the doldrums overall, with the bearish impact directly transmitted to the spot market. Stainless steel finished product prices also pulled back across the board, and market pessimism gradually spread. Prices of substitute raw materials also pulled back, while stainless steel mills showed a strong inclination to push for lower prices. NPI traders turned weaker in sentiment and sold at low prices, and the high-grade NPI market also softened. In addition, Tsingshan's April tender price for high-carbon ferrochrome was set low, not only below previous market expectations but also lower than current retail quotations, limiting room for ferrochrome prices to rise and eliminating the support from substitute raw materials for stainless steel scrap. Currently, inventory at stainless steel scrap yards remained relatively high. Coupled with tight tax invoice availability, stainless steel mills were not active in procurement tenders, and the procurement pace continued to slow down. Amid the resonance of multiple bearish factors, stainless steel scrap prices fell in line with futures and finished products. Although stainless steel scrap still maintained a clear economic advantage over high-grade NPI, under the overall weak market atmosphere, cost support was difficult to translate into price support and failed to reverse the downward price trend. Overall, the stainless steel scrap market this week showed a weak pattern of "futures drag, weaker raw materials, and pressure on supply and demand." In the short term, bearish factors are expected to dominate, and stainless steel scrap prices are expected to remain in the doldrums.