[SMM Aluminum Flash News] On March 17, LME aluminum inventory stood at 440,300 mt, down 2,500 mt from the previous day, a decrease of 0.56%; over the past week, LME aluminum inventory decreased by a cumulative 12,100 mt, a drop of 2.66%; over the past month, LME aluminum inventory decreased by a cumulative 41,200 mt, a decline of 8.56%.

Zhangjiagang hot-rolled coil inventory stood at 311,000 mt this week, down 4,000 mt WoW, a decline of 1.27; the YoY decline was 27.34 on a calendar basis and 31.50 on a lunar calendar basis.

[Heavy Inventory Pressure Continues to Cap Zinc Prices on the Upside] The most-traded SHFE zinc 2605 contract opened at 23,915 yuan/mt. In early trading, as bears reduced positions, SHFE zinc gradually rose to above the daily average line and touched a high of 24,055 yuan/mt. Later, as bears added positions, SHFE zinc gradually fell below the daily average line and hit a low of 23,720 yuan/mt, finally closing down at 23,730 yuan/mt.....

Dalian iron ore futures were generally stronger today. The most-traded contract, I2605, eventually closed at 816.5 yuan/mt, up 1.81% from the previous trading session. Meanwhile, the spot price rose by about 5 yuan from the previous trading day. Traders were moderately active in offering quotes, while steel mills made relatively few inquiries. Overall spot market transactions were limited. The latest SMM survey showed that the impact of blast furnace maintenance on hot metal production was 1.751 million mt, down 250,000 mt WoW. This impact is expected to further decline by 229,800 mt next week to 1.522 million mt. As blast furnace maintenance intensity gradually eases, iron ore demand is expected to show signs of rebounding in the short term. Looking ahead, although current port iron ore inventory has reached 155 million mt, the overhang is mainly concentrated in certain varieties. Overall, market demand for some high-demand varieties has seen a structural shift. In particular, varieties represented by IOCJ fines and PB lumps continued to destock rapidly, while MAC fines and Indian fines saw an inventory buildup. The structural contraction on the supply side is expected to lend favorable support to iron ore fundamentals in the short term. Therefore, iron ore prices are expected to fluctuate at highs or remain relatively strong this week.

SMM News, March 12: Today in Guangdong, spot #1 copper cathode against the front-month contract was quoted at a premium of 30 yuan/mt for high-quality copper, down 20 yuan/mt from yesterday; standard-quality copper was quoted at a discount of 80 yuan/mt, down 70 yuan/mt from yesterday; and SX-EW copper was quoted at a discount of 140 yuan/mt, down 55 yuan/mt from yesterday. The average price of #1 copper cathode in Guangdong was 100,255 yuan/mt, up 1,300 yuan/mt from the previous trading day, while the average price of SX-EW copper was 100,140 yuan/mt, up 1,290 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Spot market: After Guangdong inventory rose slightly for only one day yesterday, it declined again today, mainly due to fewer arrivals and increased warehouse withdrawals. As inventory fell, suppliers took the opportunity to hold prices firm and make shipments, but downstream processing enterprises showed only average restocking sentiment today. On the one hand, copper prices posted a relatively large gain; on the other hand, premiums also rose sharply. However, traders' purchase willingness increased from yesterday, and overall trading sentiment improved after the contract rollover. Today, purchasing sentiment for copper cathode in Guangdong was 2.43, up 0.11 from the previous trading day, while shipment sentiment was 3.26, up 0.25 from the previous trading day (historical data is available in the database). Overall, market trading sentiment improved after the contract rollover. Attention should be paid to inventory changes tomorrow. If destocking continues, premiums are expected to keep rising.

[SMM Zinc Morning Comment] Overnight, the most-traded SHFE zinc 2604 contract opened at 23,930 yuan/mt. In early trading, SHFE zinc briefly rose to a high of 23,970 yuan/mt, then bulls reduced open interest, dragging the price center lower and leaving it in the doldrums. It touched a low of 23,820 yuan/mt during the session and finally closed down at 23,880 yuan/mt, down 25 yuan/mt, or 0.1. Trading volume fell to 29,661 lots, while open interest decreased by 531 lots to 76,786 lots.

[China Iron Ore Brief Comment: Iron Ore Concentrates Prices in Tangshan Might Have Some Room to Move Higher] Iron ore concentrates prices in Tangshan were relatively stable today, with the ex-factory prices of 66-grade dry-basis iron ore concentrates including tax at 970-980 yuan/mt. The intensity of environmental protection inspections weakened, and steel mills as well as ore beneficiation gradually resumed production, but producers turned cautious in their operations, market inquiries were not active, and beneficiation plants considered costs as well as inventory

[SMM Aluminum Flash News] On March 16, LME aluminum inventory stood at 442,800 mt, down 2,475 mt from the previous day, a decrease of 0.56%; over the past week, LME aluminum inventory decreased by a cumulative 11,800 mt, a decline of 2.60%; over the past month, LME aluminum inventory decreased by a cumulative 38,700 mt, a decline of 8.04%.

[SMM Flash] Today, inventory of secondary aluminum alloy ingots in China’s major consumption hubs increased by 677 mt WoW from last Monday, with the inventory buildup mainly concentrated in Foshan and Ningbo.

[SMM Shanghai Spot Copper] Intraday trading in the spot market was subdued, while suppliers still showed willingness to hold prices firm. Downstream wait-and-see sentiment remained relatively strong, and spot premiums edged down slightly from yesterday. As the contango price spread between nearby contracts narrowed, suppliers' willingness to ship to delivery warehouses weakened somewhat, putting pressure on spot premiums. On the demand side, downstream buyers maintained just-in-time procurement, and transactions remained sluggish even after suppliers slightly lowered their quotations, as current copper prices had limited appeal to end-users. On the supply side, domestic copper and imported cargoes previously locked in at fixed prices continued to arrive, while social inventory remained at a high level. The outflow of warrants over the next two days may further weigh on spot premiums. Meanwhile, signs that the import window may still open persisted, and expectations for subsequent inflows of ex-China cargoes strengthened, further increasing supply-side pressure. Overall, amid a pattern of weak supply and demand, Shanghai spot copper premiums are expected to remain under pressure tomorrow, with a possibility of a slight widening.