On June 17th, Shenhuo Coal & Power Co., Ltd. released its investor relations activity record. Regarding the coal sector, the company has an annual production capacity of 7.95 million tons, with an estimated annual output of 6.95 million tons, mainly anthracite and lean coal, with a clean coal rate of approximately 75%, and prices fluctuating with market conditions. Since the beginning of this year, coal prices have generally stabilized and rebounded, leading to improved profitability in the coal sector. In the aluminum processing sector, the company currently has an aluminum foil production capacity of 140,000 tons/year and an aluminum foil billet production capacity of 265,000 tons/year. The 50,000-ton/year new energy battery aluminum foil project in Shangqiu is currently progressing smoothly.

[Destocking Logic Continues to Materialize, Macro Pressure Caps Aluminum Price Upside] SMM maintains its forecast that inventory will fall to around 1.28 million mt by late June, and is expected to further approach 1.2 million mt by end‑June/early July, providing some support for aluminum prices. However, China’s high inventory pressure remains relatively evident, and with the current bearish macro sentiment dominating the market, domestic aluminum prices will mainly fluctuate in consolidation in the short term.

According to SMM statistics, as of June 12, in-factory inventory days for aluminum rod in China stood at 2.66 days, a sharp decline of 1.25 days WoW from 3.91 days on June 5, with the inventory ratio plunging from 37.45% to 9.28%, a drop of 28.17 percentage points. During the same period, the weekly operating rate of the aluminum wire and cable industry recorded 82.10%, up 1.76 percentage points WoW

SMM June 17: In early trading, the SHFE aluminum 2606 contract fluctuated upward, with its center running higher than that at the same time yesterday. However, as aluminum prices held near recent lows, buyers’ purchasing sentiment remained relatively active, driving sellers’ quotes and transaction prices to strengthen further. Today, influenced by the rise in aluminum prices, some sellers’ shipment sentiment edged up slightly from yesterday. The mainstream spot transaction price was at a discount of 60-80 yuan/mt against the SHFE aluminum 2407 contract. Today, the east China selling sentiment index was 2.91, up 0.08 from yesterday; the purchasing sentiment index was 3.06, unchanged from yesterday. Futures prices held at monthly lows. Today, in the central China market, inventory-holding traders showed strong sentiment to hold prices firm and hold back from selling, tending to quickly narrow premiums to capture price spreads. However, downstream processing enterprises had low willingness to purchase at high prices. The market saw a tug-of-war between holding prices firm and pushing for lower prices, with premiums showing a downward trend. Ultimately, the actual transaction price range in central China centered around a discount of 100-130 yuan/mt against the SHFE aluminum 2407 contract. Today, the central China selling sentiment index was 2.92, up 0.01 from yesterday; the purchasing sentiment index was 2.21, down 0.01 from yesterday. On the inventory front, the aluminum ingot inventory in mainstream consumption regions fell by 1.65 from yesterday, with all three regions showing destocking.

[Geopolitical Risk Premium Exits Market, Aluminum Prices Under Short-Term Pressure and Volatility] On the macro front, the US and Iran have completed signing an electronic MOU. Expectations of geopolitical easing continue to materialize, market panic over the Middle East conflict continues to fade, and the geopolitical risk premium for commodities has weakened significantly. US May CPI rose 4.2% YoY, hitting a three-year high, while core CPI also strengthened. The market continues to bet on the Fed restarting rate hikes within the year, and expectations of tightening liquidity continue to suppress metal valuations. On the fundamentals side, the Middle East conflict caused involuntary production cuts in overseas aluminum capacity. Expectations of a global supply deficit continue to widen, and coupled with expectations of rising energy costs, this provides strong bottom support for LME aluminum. China’s inventory destocking trend has been established, and the destocking logic continues to be realized. The rebound in the proportion of liquid aluminum, support from export demand, and supply normalization compressing aluminum ingot formation—these three fundamental factors jointly drive the continuation of destocking. SMM maintains its forecast that inventory will fall to around 1.28 million mt by late June, and may further approach 1.2 million mt by end-June/early July, bringing some support to aluminum prices. However, the pressure from high domestic inventory remains relatively pronounced. Coupled with the currently bearish macro sentiment dominating the market, short-term domestic aluminum prices are mainly in the doldrums, with volatile adjustments.

SMM June 17 news: Metal markets: Overnight, base metals on both domestic and overseas markets broadly rose, with only LME zinc, LME tin, SHFE zinc, and SHFE tin falling. LME zinc led the losses, down 0.64%, while the declines in other metals were small. LME nickel led the gains among base metals on both markets, up 0.79%. SHFE lead rose 0.77%, LME lead rose 0.71%, and other metals saw relatively small gains. The main alumina contract rose 0.73%, while the main cast aluminum contract rose 0.39%. Overnight in ferrous metals, most contracts fell aside from stainless steel. Stainless steel rose 1.16%, iron ore fell 1.04%, and HRC and rebar both fell around 0.3%. Coking coal and coke were mixed, with coking coal up 0.33% and coke down 0.6%. Overnight in precious metals, COMEX gold rose 0.03% and COMEX silver fell 0.08%. Domestically, SHFE gold fell 0.06% and SHFE silver fell 0.07%. Overnight closing prices as of 6:43 am June 17: Macro Front China: [NBS: In May, the industrial added value above designated size grew by 4.5%; the national economy generally operated stably with new and quality improvements] In May, under the strong leadership of the CPC Central Committee with Comrade Xi Jinping at its core, all regions and departments conscientiously implemented the decisions and deployments of the CPC Central Committee and the State Council. We upheld the general principle of pursuing progress while ensuring stability, fully, accurately, and comprehensively implemented the new development philosophy, accelerated the creation of a new development pattern, earnestly implemented more proactive and impactful macro policies, and effectively responded to external shocks and challenges. Production supply grew steadily modestly, employment and prices were generally stable, foreign trade resilience continued to manifest, new growth drivers grew stronger, and the national economy continued its development trend of general stability with new and quality improvements. NBS data showed that in May, the industrial added value of enterprises above the designated size increased by 4.5% YoY in real terms, with the growth rate accelerating by 0.4 percentage points from the previous month. On a MoM basis, the industrial added value of enterprises above the designated size increased by 0.40% in May over the previous month. From January to May, the industrial added value of enterprises above the designated size increased by 5.4% YoY. [NDRC: Standardize local investment promotion activities, and promote fair opening of competitive infrastructure sectors to business entities] On the morning of June 16, Zheng Shanjie, Chairman of the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), chaired a symposium to hear opinions and suggestions on the current economic situation, systematically advancing the construction of the "Six Networks," and expanding effective domestic demand. In the next step, the NDRC will thoroughly implement the decisions and deployments of the CPC Central Committee and the State Council, strengthen the planning and construction of the "Six Networks," enhance multi-network coordinated advancement, make integrated use of various government funds and new-type policy-based financial instruments, strengthen guarantees for factors like land and environmental assessments, persist in balancing quality and efficiency, accelerate transformation and implementation, and promote the formation of more physical workload. We will deeply advance the construction of a unified national market, standardize local investment promotion activities, advance the fair opening of competitive infrastructure sectors to business entities, improve the long-term mechanism for private enterprise participation in major project construction, actively attract social capital to participate in the "Six Networks" construction, and effectively stimulate the vitality of private investment. At the same time, we will deepen multi-level, regular communication and exchanges with private enterprises, strengthen forward-looking and strategic issue research, persist in integrating point-and-area and short-term-and-long-term approaches, strengthen overall coordination, and promote the growth and expansion of the private economy with pragmatic measures. (Jin10 Data APP) [Eight Departments: Aim to exceed 90% for the one-hour multimodal transshipment rate by 2030] Recently, eight departments including the Ministry of Transport jointly issued the "Action Plan for Breaking Bottlenecks in Multimodal Transport (2026-2030)" to accelerate the construction of a modern multimodal transport network. The Action Plan proposes to use approximately five years to upgrade the multimodal transport functions of around 1,000 main freight nodes, achieve a one-hour multimodal transshipment rate exceeding 90%, reach an 80% railway access rate for coastal port multimodal transport zones, and achieve a 100% railway access rate for main ports along the Yangtze River trunk line. At the same time, optimization of container rail-water intermodal security checks, "single-document" systems, and other standards and rules will achieve new breakthroughs. (CCTV News) (Jin10 Data APP) US Dollar: Overnight, the US dollar index fell 0.12% to 99.56%, primarily driven by optimism over a peace agreement between the US and Iran, while the market awaited the US Fed policy meeting results the next day. According to CNBC, the US Fed will release its latest dot plot on Wednesday, showing individual officials' expectations for the interest rate path. However, most Fed watchers on Wall Street expect new Fed Chairman Warsh will not participate, possibly because he feels unready, or simply because he doesn't like the dot plot. Warsh has previously spoken out against the dot plot and other forward-looking guidance methods, arguing they constrain the Fed's decision-making capabilities. If Warsh refuses to submit dot-plot projections, it would go against the Fed's roughly 14-year post-financial crisis practice and could alienate him from other Fed officials who support this communication method. Yet, for Chairman Warsh, who has promised fundamental reforms to how the institution operates, this might be an effective first step. "Given his viewpoint, it seems very possible he wouldn't want to submit rate forecasts," said Bill English, former head of the Fed's Monetary Affairs Division and now a professor at Yale University. "There are probably other committee members who are not crazy about the dot plot, and they would be willing to do that too." (Jin10 Data APP) According to the CME "FedWatch Tool": The probability of the US Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in June is 99.5%, while the probability of a cumulative 25 bps rate cut is 0.5%. The probability of the Fed keeping rates unchanged through July is 92%, the probability of a cumulative 25 bps rate hike is 7.9%, and the probability of a cumulative 25 bps rate cut is 0%. (Jin10 Data APP) Data: Today, the US May retail sales MoM, US April business inventories MoM, US May pending home sales index MoM, UK May CPI MoM, UK May retail price index MoM, Eurozone May final CPI YoY, Eurozone May final CPI MoM, and other data will be released. Additionally, ECB President Lagarde is attending a summit on the impact of artificial intelligence (AI). China's 2026 Lujiazui Forum will be held from June 17 to 18. Crude Oil: Overnight, oil prices on both markets fell together, with WTI oil down 5.11% and Brent oil down 4.61%, recording a four-day losing streak, mainly due to expectations that the Strait of Hormuz would reopen. According to the Wall Street Journal, informed sources said that under the agreement, the US will allow Iran to immediately resume exporting and selling oil and fuel, providing Tehran with a front-loaded economic incentive to de-escalate the conflict. The provisions in the deal waiving sanctions on oil sales will take effect immediately upon the agreement's signing this week. Meanwhile, the necessary services supporting oil sales, such as banking, shipping, and insurance, will also be exempted to ensure related transactions can proceed smoothly. The United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI) group stated that a supertanker carrying Iranian crude oil has left Chabahar Port, crossed the US blockade line, and sailed out of the Gulf of Oman on Tuesday with its vessel positioning system activated. This is the first such occurrence since the US implemented a maritime blockade in April this year. A senior US official said on Tuesday that while Iran will receive upfront sanctions relief on oil sales, long-term and sustained sanctions relief will depend on Iran's compliance with US demands, including issues related to opening the strait and its nuclear program. The official added that Iran still will not immediately gain access to tens of billions of dollars in frozen overseas funds. (Jin10 Data APP) Maritime intelligence company TankerTrackers said in a social media post early on the 17th that the agency verified via satellite imagery on the 15th that at least two very-large crude carriers (VLCCs) belonging to the National Iranian Tanker Company had sailed out of the US Navy blockade line, carrying a total of 3.8 million barrels of Iranian crude oil between them. This marks Iran's first crude oil export in nearly two months. Additionally, the post stated that the Stream, a tanker owned by the National Iranian Tanker Company, is departing from Pakistan's exclusive economic zone. The vessel had previously been stuck in those waters for seven weeks, waiting to return to an Iranian port. (Xinhua News Agency) (Jin10 Data APP) Data from the American Petroleum Institute (API) showed that last week, US API crude inventories fell by 8.33 million barrels, following a decline of 9.119 million barrels the prior week. Last week, API crude inventories at Cushing fell by 1.523 million barrels, compared to a prior decline of 1.125 million barrels. Last week, API product gasoline inventories rose by 2.479 million barrels (prior -1.191 million barrels), and distillate inventories fell by 1.523 million barrels (prior -407,000 barrels). (Wall Street CN)

SMM, June 16: The SHFE aluminum price center in the morning session was far below the same period yesterday. However, affected by the sharp decline in aluminum prices, buyer purchasing sentiment surged, driving seller quotes and transaction prices to strengthen continuously. Some sellers, influenced by the aluminum prices, held back from selling and raised their quotes. The mainstream spot transaction prices were at a discount of 80 to a discount of 90 yuan/mt against the SHFE aluminum July contract. Today, the shipment sentiment index in East China was 2.83, down 0.13 MoM; the purchasing sentiment index was 3.06, up 0.30 MoM. SHFE aluminum futures prices plunged in the night session of the previous day and the morning session today. In the central China market, the buying sentiment of downstream processing enterprises recovered, and their willingness to stockpile increased. Trading firms engaging in both spot and futures markets tended to quickly earn price spreads, and the sentiment of holding prices firm and holding back from selling was strong, keeping market quotes high. Ultimately, the actual transaction price range in the central China market was at a discount of 120-140 yuan/mt against the SHFE aluminum July contract. Today, the shipment sentiment index in the central China market was 2.91, down 0.01 MoM; the purchasing sentiment index was 2.22, up 0.02 MoM. On the inventory front, the aluminum ingot inventory in major consumption areas fell 0.25 MoM today, with destocking mainly driven by Guangdong and Wuxi.

[Geopolitical easing combined with manufacturing slowdown exert dual suppression, SHFE and LME aluminum prices plunge significantly] SMM maintains its forecast that inventory will drop to around 1.28 million mt by late June, and may further approach 1.2 million mt by the end of June or early July, providing some support for aluminum prices. However, the pressure from high domestic inventory remains relatively evident, and coupled with the currently dominant bearish macro sentiment in the market, domestic aluminum prices are expected to mainly be in the doldrums with adjustments in the short term.

Baotou City is promoting the transformation of its traditional advantageous industries into future-oriented industries, accelerating the formation of a complete industrial chain encompassing "new energy development—direct green electricity supply—electrolytic aluminum production." On the large screen of the Baotou Aluminum Industry Smart Energy Control Center, wind turbine blades can be seen slowly rotating deep in the grasslands 200 kilometers away. Dispatcher Xu Junxia, ​​pointing to the dynamically optimized dispatch curve, explained that the company has now shifted from production based on electricity demand to production based on electricity consumption, with green electricity now accounting for 33%. "Based on the trend of electricity prices in our spot market, we are maximizing the absorption of new energy sources and improving the overall electricity and energy consumption structure."

[Domestic and overseas aluminum prices see a modest simultaneous recovery; China's destocking stabilizes with limited upside room] SMM maintains its assessment that inventory will drop to around 1.28 million mt by late June, and is expected to further approach 1.2 million mt by end-June or early July. The futures market sees short-term stabilization signals, but high domestic inventory pressure remains relatively evident, which is expected to limit the upside room for domestic aluminum prices. In the short term, domestic aluminum prices are expected to mainly fluctuate and consolidate.