SMM Morning Meeting Summary: Last Friday night, LME copper opened at $12,871/mt. It hit a high of $12,942/mt amid wide swings early in the session, after which the center of copper prices gradually moved lower and fell to $12,733/mt near the close, finally settling at $12,735.5/mt, down 1.64%. Trading volume reached 22,600 lots, and open interest stood at 307,000 lots, an increase of 3,144 lots from the previous trading day, mainly due to bears adding positions. Last Friday night, the most-traded SHFE copper 2604 contract opened at 100,520 yuan/mt and climbed to 100,760 yuan/mt early in the session. Afterwards, the center of copper prices fluctuated downward and touched a low of 99,710 yuan/mt near the close, with a decline of 0.86%. Trading volume reached 38,900 lots, and open interest stood at 190,000 lots, a decrease of 930 lots from the previous trading day, mainly due to bulls reducing positions.

SMM Morning Meeting Minutes: On Friday night last week, LME copper opened at $12,871.5/mt. After fluctuating rangebound in early trading, it dipped to $12,805.5/mt, then the center rose to a high of $12,927.5/mt, and finally closed at $12,869/mt, up 0.08%. Trading volume fell by 3,517 lots from the previous trading day to 24,000 lots; open interest increased by 2,377 lots from the previous trading day to 308,000 lots, mainly reflecting bulls adding positions overall. On Friday night last week, the most-traded SHFE copper 2604 contract opened at 100,250 yuan/mt. It bottomed at 100,180 yuan/mt in early trading, then the center rose to a high of 100,820 yuan/mt, and finally closed at 100,250 yuan/mt while fluctuating rangebound, down 0.53%. Trading volume fell by 58,000 lots from the previous trading day to 69,000 lots; open interest increased by 1,229 lots from the previous trading day to 197,000 lots, mainly reflecting bears adding positions overall.

SMM Analysis: In 2025, China's smelting and refining capacity grew, while the TC for copper concentrates continued to deteriorate. Against this backdrop, smelters were compelled to adjust their raw material mix, with copper scrap, blister copper, and anode plates becoming key substitutes and supplements...

SMM Morning Meeting Minutes: On Friday, LME copper opened at $13,230/mt, hitting an intraday high of $13,481.5/mt in early trading, after which copper prices fluctuated downward, touching a low of $12,845/mt near the close, and finally settled at $13,070.5/mt, down 4.63%. Trading volume reached 29,000 lots, an increase of 2,143 lots from the previous trading day; open interest stood at 330,000 lots, a decrease of 1,761 lots from the previous trading day, with the overall performance mainly reflecting long liquidation. On Friday evening, the most-traded SHFE copper 2603 contract opened at 104,200 yuan/mt, fluctuated rangebound in early trading before reaching a high of 105,080 yuan/mt, then fluctuated downward, touching a low of 102,700 yuan/mt near the close, and finally settled at 103,190 yuan/mt, down 4.75%. Trading volume reached 183,000 lots, a decrease of 603,000 lots from the previous trading day; open interest stood at 219,000 lots, a decrease of 4,081 lots from the previous trading day, with the overall performance mainly reflecting long liquidation.

In May, the copper market operated steadily, with SHFE copper prices fluctuating rangebound around 78,000 yuan/mt. The trends of LME copper and SHFE copper were generally similar, but LME copper outperformed SHFE copper, boosted by factors such as declining inventories and a weaker US dollar. The market focused on overseas macroeconomic data. In early May, the UK and the US reached an agreement on the terms of a tariff and trade deal, raising market expectations for an improvement in the global trade environment and leading to a slight rebound in the US dollar index. On May 12, the Ministry of Commerce issued a joint statement on the Sino-US Geneva Economic and Trade Talks, announcing that significant consensus had been reached in Sino-US trade negotiations. This progress significantly boosted market risk appetite, and copper prices strengthened temporarily as a result. In addition, the US Fed maintained its pause in interest rate cuts at its May policy meeting. Fed Chairman Powell stated that high tariffs could push up inflation and exacerbate pressure on the job market, and that the current monetary policy was in a moderately restrictive range, with a manageable outlook for underlying inflation, making it prudent to maintain a wait-and-see approach. Two days after the Fed announced its latest interest rate decision, several Fed officials reiterated the importance of controlling inflation expectations, believing that uncertainties in trade policy could lead to interest rates remaining elevated for a longer period. In mid-to-late June, the Fed's policy meeting will be held. According to the CME "FedWatch Tool," the probability of the Fed maintaining interest rates unchanged in June is 95.3%, with a 4.7% probability of a 25-basis-point cut. The probability of the Fed maintaining interest rates unchanged in July is 75.6%, with a 23.4% probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point cut and a 1.0% probability of a cumulative 50-basis-point cut. The impact of the US tariff policy on the market is gradually stabilizing, but the inflation concerns it has triggered and its potential impact on the economy will gradually emerge. Against this backdrop, the financial attributes of copper will continue to weaken. The shortage of raw materials intensified. In the week ending May 30, the processing fee for imported copper concentrates was reported at -$43.56/mt, further declining from -$42.61/mt at the end of April. Since turning negative on January 24 this year, the processing fee for imported copper concentrates has continued to fluctuate downward, reflecting persistent pressure on ore supply. In terms of copper scrap, the volume of copper scrap imported from the US has continued to decline since the beginning of this year. Although imports of copper scrap from Japan have increased somewhat, this has been insufficient to offset the decline in imports from the US. As copper prices struggle to rise and fail to stimulate the market to release more supply, it is expected that the volume of imported copper scrap will be difficult to rebound in June. Coupled with the resumption of production by some smelters after maintenance, the tight supply of copper scrap is expected to further intensify in June. According to SMM data, the operating rates of domestic copper smelters in China have generally shown an upward trend this year. However, around the delivery periods between months, a significant increase in market deliveries has led to a short-term accumulation of copper inventories at the SHFE. Due to limited inflows of imported supplies, the supply of copper cathode remains tight. Regarding domestic smelters, four smelters are scheduled for maintenance in June, involving the same crude and refined smelting capacity as in May. It is expected to affect production by 22,300 mt, a significant decrease compared to the impact of previous maintenance. Although the scale of planned maintenance at domestic smelters in Q2 gradually narrows in June, the pressure on raw material supply increases instead of decreasing, and the tight supply of copper cathode will persist in June. According to SMM data, the forecasted operating rate of domestic wire and cable enterprises in May was 84.66%, continuing to rebound from the April level. Demand side, power consumption has maintained a positive trend this year, with overall stable demand from the real estate sector. Notably, since the start of Q2, both newly started and completed construction areas in real estate have rebounded. However, wire and cable enterprises engaged in concentrated procurement of raw materials when copper prices fell in April, and now the inventory of copper rod raw materials has once again accumulated to a high level. Therefore, despite the rebound in demand from the wire and cable sector, the transmission of demand still lags behind. The production and sales of the air conditioning industry exhibit distinct seasonal characteristics. In June, enterprises have entered a downward production cycle, with production and sales activities set to contract further, and their boosting effect on copper demand will also weaken accordingly. The automotive industry is in a phase of seasonal rebound, with NEV production continuing to accelerate. Coupled with positive sales performance this year, the industry's copper demand will steadily rebound. In summary, copper prices will continue to fluctuate at highs in June. (Source: Futures Daily)

Impact of US Tariff Policies Gradually Emerges As downstream consumption gradually recovers, the operating rates of copper downstream processing enterprises have significantly increased. However, the impact of US tariff policies is gradually emerging, making it difficult to be optimistic about the subsequent copper consumption. Since April, the most-traded SHFE copper contract has formed a trend of first declining and then rising, with prices gradually rebounding after hitting a low of 71,000 yuan/mt. Meanwhile, arbitrage trading in the LME and COMEX copper markets has weakened, while domestic copper smelter maintenance has increased, and social inventory of copper has rapidly decreased, providing support for copper prices. How much room is there for copper prices to rebound subsequently? Supply Side Remains Tight In December 2024, China's copper concentrate production was 151,800 mt, up 6.89% YoY and 9.51% MoM. In March 2025, China imported 2.3939 million mt of copper concentrates and ore in physical terms, up 9.69% MoM and 2.73% YoY. This year, China's copper concentrate production has been at a relatively low level, while imports have remained relatively stable, resulting in a decrease in the overall supply of copper concentrates. In late April, Peru's Antamina mine fully suspended operations due to a sudden accident. In 2024, the mine's copper production was 426,900 mt, accounting for 1.86% of the global total copper mine production, which will have a certain impact on the global copper ore supply. In terms of inventory, as of April 18, the copper concentrate inventory at domestic mainstream ports was 706,900 mt, at a medium level. Meanwhile, the processing fee for imported ore continued to decline, falling to -$34.71/mt, hitting a record low. In addition, according to data from relevant institutions, the global new copper concentrate capacity additions accelerated from 2021 to 2025. However, in the three years after 2026, the growth rate of global new copper concentrate capacity will rapidly decline, potentially exacerbating the tight supply of global copper concentrates in the later period. As of February this year, China's copper scrap production was 115,800 mt in metal content, up 4.99% MoM and 60.83% YoY. According to March data, China's imports of copper scrap and shredded copper scrap were 189,700 mt in physical terms, down 3,631 mt (-1.88%) MoM and 13.07% YoY. Among them, imports from the US were 22,500 mt in physical terms, down 8,900 mt MoM. With the intensifying impact of Sino-US trade frictions, the volume of imported copper scrap may decline in the later period, leading to a tight supply-demand structure for copper scrap. In February, China's blister copper production was 911,500 mt, down 2.96% MoM and up 10.74% YoY. Among them, mineral-derived blister copper decreased by 26,500 mt from January to 738,700 mt, while scrap-derived blister copper decreased by 1,300 mt to 172,800 mt. In March, China imported 50,200 mt of copper anode, down 11.05% MoM and 47.8% YoY. In March, China's copper cathode production reached 1.1221 million mt, up 6.04% MoM and 12.27% YoY. Entering April, the supply of copper concentrates tightened, prompting some smelters to reduce their feedstock intake of copper concentrates. However, by increasing the intake of copper scrap and anode plates, they managed to maintain stable copper cathode production. Additionally, a new smelter in east China commenced operations, and the capacity utilization rate of smelters in southwest China increased, leading to a slight decline in the total copper cathode production. Due to significant losses in the industry, the operating rate of domestic smelters remained relatively low, while import losses also suppressed the supply of imported copper. Overall, despite the increase in copper cathode production, the overall supply pressure remained relatively small. Looking ahead at capacity increments, it is expected that China will add 1.17 million mt of new copper refining capacity in 2025, with overseas capacity additions reaching around 870,000 mt. Among these, the Kamoa mining area, jointly held by Ivanhoe and Zijin Mining, will contribute the largest increase in overseas capacity. Rebound in downstream operating rates In 2025, China's fiscal policy will become more proactive. Specifically, the scale of ultra-long special treasury bonds is expected to increase from 1 trillion yuan to 2 trillion yuan, while the scale of new special local government bonds is expected to rise from 3.9 trillion yuan to 4.5 trillion-5 trillion yuan. With the continuous strengthening of fiscal policy, it is anticipated that infrastructure investment in 2025 will continue to fluctuate at highs in recent years, with investment growth expected to stabilize at 5%-10%. Infrastructure investment will remain one of the main driving forces for industrial product demand in 2025. In December 2024, China's copper semis production reached 2.27 million mt, up 6.2% MoM and 16.53% YoY. The operating rate of China's copper semis industry in December 2024 was 69.02%. Affected by the Chinese New Year holiday, the operating rate of the copper semis industry was relatively low in January-February 2025 but gradually recovered to 67% in March. With the recovery of downstream consumption, the operating rates of downstream copper processing enterprises continued to rebound. Entering April, copper prices fell sharply, stimulating an increase in downstream orders. It is expected that the operating rate of the copper semis industry may continue to rise, but attention should be paid to the impact of US tariff policies on China's copper consumption. Additionally, the YoY data for overall power grid and NEV production both showed slight increases, providing further bullish support for copper cathode demand. Bulls take the initiative in forward contracts In April, the growth rate of COMEX copper inventories accelerated, approaching 130,000 short tons as of April 23. Domestically, as of April 24, China's social copper inventory stood at 181,700 mt, achieving eight consecutive weeks of weekly destocking. It fell by 195,300 mt from the year's high and was 223,000 mt lower than the 404,700 mt recorded in the same period last year. In April, the decline in LME copper inventories slowed, hovering around 210,000 mt, while the ratio of cancelled warrants dropped from a high of 50% to 37%. As of April 18, both non-commercial long and short positions of COMEX No. 1 copper decreased compared to the previous week, with net long positions dropping by 4,764 lots to 19,477 lots. Meanwhile, LME copper investment fund long and short positions both increased, with net long positions rising by 1,479 lots to 29,842 lots. The domestic futures market exhibited a contango structure, with long positions in far-month contracts dominating, indicating bullish sentiment among major funds regarding future prices. From the supply-demand balance table, as the peak consumption season approaches, downstream demand is rebounding while upstream supply is pulling back, leading to a gradual improvement in the supply-demand structure. The probability of a supply-demand gap in Q2 is increasing. Against this backdrop, market optimism is rising, providing some bullish support for prices. From a macro perspective, the US economic data for March, including ISM Manufacturing PMI, CPI, and PPI, showed steady performance. The impact of US tariff policies is expected to be reflected in April's data, and subsequent attention should be paid to the progress of negotiations between the US and other countries. On the supply side, the tight supply of copper raw materials has intensified, with import concentrate TC continuing to decline, and tariff policies affecting copper scrap imports. However, the current production cuts in copper smelting are relatively small, with April mainly focused on maintenance. By-products such as sulphuric acid and gold can partially offset smelter losses. On the consumption side, as downstream consumption gradually recovers, the operating rate of downstream processing enterprises has significantly increased. The shortage of secondary copper raw materials has also stimulated market consumption of copper cathode. However, the impact of US tariff policies is gradually becoming apparent, making it difficult to be optimistic about future copper consumption. Overall, the fundamentals of copper provide moderate support, but US tariff policies continue to trouble the market, limiting the rebound potential of copper prices. It is expected that SHFE copper prices may struggle to break new highs in May, with caution advised against the risk of jumping initially and then pulling back. (Source: Futures Daily)

[SMM Analysis: Tight Market Conditions Expected in May, with Significant Declines in Domestic Blister Copper and Copper Anode RCs] In April 2025, domestic blister copper RCs in south China were quoted at 950-1,150 yuan/mt, with an average price of 1,050 yuan/mt, up 150 yuan/mt MoM. Domestic blister copper RCs in north China were quoted at 700-1,000 yuan/mt, with an average price of 850 yuan/mt, up 50 yuan/mt MoM...

On April 24, at the CCIE 2025 SMM (20th) Copper Industry Conference & Copper Industry Expo - Secondary Copper Industry Green Development Forum, Zhang Junbing, Director of the Secondary Copper Business Department of Zhejiang Hailiang Co., Ltd., elaborated on the downstream consumption status of secondary copper in China.

Copper prices have recently experienced significant fluctuations, showing a trend of initial decline followed by a rebound. In early April, affected by the US's imposition of "reciprocal tariffs," the entire market was filled with anxiety, which significantly dragged down copper prices. Copper prices plummeted after the Qingming Festival, dropping to a low of 71,320 yuan/mt. After the market collectively vented its pessimism, it gradually returned to calm. Additionally, signs of easing emerged in the tariff war initiated by the US, causing copper prices to refocus on fundamental factors and gradually recover. Weakening Financial Attributes In April, global financial markets closely monitored the US tariff policy, experiencing two phases: a concentrated release of panic sentiment followed by its easing. In early April, affected by the US's "reciprocal tariff" policy, global stock markets suffered heavy losses. Risk-averse sentiment drove US Treasuries and the Japanese yen higher, while the non-ferrous metals sector weakened across the board. After the rapid release of market panic, on April 9, the US announced a temporary suspension of imposing high "reciprocal tariffs" on some trading partners. This led to significant gains in European and US stock markets, with the non-ferrous metals sector staging a broad-based rebound. By this point, most of the impact from the trade conflict had been absorbed by the market, and global markets gradually returned to calm. The US Fed will hold its interest rate-setting meeting in early May. The negative impact of the US tariff policy on the market has already weakened, but its influence on inflation and economic growth will continue to be reflected in US macroeconomic data. The macroeconomic environment in May is expected to remain stable overall, with its impact on copper prices likely to diminish. Tight Supply Recently, overseas mine operations have remained generally stable, with only sporadic disruptions. According to SMM, protesters in the Cusco region of Peru have blocked the entrance to Glencore's Antapaccay copper mine since March 30. Additionally, in mid-April, a worker at KGHM's Sierra Gorda copper mine in Chile died, halting mine production. Sierra Gorda's copper production in 2024 was 146,000 mt, with little actual impact on global copper concentrate production. Since March, there have been signs of easing in the copper concentrate supply environment. In mid-March, the Panamanian government indicated it would allow First Quantum to export 120,000 mt of copper concentrate and permit the restart of the power plant serving the mine. Freeport, which had not exported any copper concentrate this year, obtained an export quota of approximately 1.27 million mt of copper concentrate. Additionally, there is room for some production release from projects like Teck Resources' Quebrada Blanca Phase II and Oyu Tolgoi Phase II. For the week ending April 18, the processing fee for imported copper concentrates was reported at -$34.71/mt, down $3.82/mt WoW. The current level of processing fees for imported copper concentrates has remained negative for three consecutive months and continues to weaken. According to SMM's survey, some domestic smelters still have maintenance plans in May. Considering the potential impact of the downward shift in the copper price center on smelters' production enthusiasm, the tight supply situation for ore is expected to ease in May. Affected by the downward shift in the copper futures price center and suppliers of copper scrap raw materials holding back cargoes, the price spread between copper cathode and copper scrap narrowed significantly in April, even dropping to 450 yuan/mt in mid-April, the lowest level since late October 2023. The sharp decline in copper prices significantly reduced the sales volume of copper scrap suppliers. Copper anode production only saw slight increases from some secondary copper rod enterprises switching production. Copper anode production from ore is constrained by factors such as tight supply in the copper concentrate market and continuously falling spot TCs, making it difficult to significantly increase production. Currently, the impact of the foreign trade environment on copper scrap imports is gradually being reflected, with imported copper scrap volumes unlikely to rebound in April. Additionally, suppliers of copper scrap raw materials are holding back cargoes, waiting for copper prices to rise, which will exacerbate the tight supply of copper scrap in April. Although the processing fee for imported copper concentrates has remained negative, it has not significantly impacted smelter production. Although Tongling Nonferrous Metals announced maintenance in March, the operating rate of domestic copper smelters, as surveyed by SMM, has continued to rise, reaching 87.68% by the end of March. This is mainly due to factors such as high copper prices, as well as high prices for by-products like sulphuric acid and gold. The number of smelters planning maintenance in China in Q2 has significantly increased, with multiple smelters having maintenance plans from April to June. We estimate that the impact of maintenance on copper cathode production will be concentrated in April and May. Stable Consumption Boost The operating levels of copper cathode rod enterprises have been better than in the previous two years this year, mainly due to insufficient production of secondary copper rods rather than driven by growth in end-use demand. The rebound in terminal wire and cable consumption will be offset by high inventory levels in the copper rod industry, making it difficult for the consumption rebound to effectively form new and significant demand. The production and sales of the air conditioning industry exhibit distinct seasonal characteristics. May will mark the beginning of the downward cycle in air conditioning production, with air conditioning inventory likely to accumulate again at high levels. Therefore, copper demand from the air conditioning sector will experience a seasonal decline in May. May is a seasonally recovering period for the automotive industry. As trade-in subsidies for the automotive industry have been in place for several years, some demand has already been fulfilled in advance, and the actual boosting effect of consumption on production is expected to be relatively limited. Overall, driven by supply factors, copper prices are expected to continue their upward recovery in May. (Source: Futures Daily)

After a panic-driven plunge in early April, SHFE copper quickly rebounded, reclaiming the 75,000-point level from an 8-month low in just one trading session, and continued to rise thereafter, filling the significant gap above. Recently, domestic spot copper concentrate TCs have continued to decline, and news of copper mine suspensions in Peru has emerged. Will the tight ore supply further support copper prices? Over the past two weeks, the destocking of domestic refined copper social inventories has accelerated. What are the main factors driving this? How long will the destocking trend last? Considering the current macro and supply-demand dynamics, can the rebound in copper futures be sustained? Webstock Inc.'s [Institutional Diagnosis] section invites SHFE copper futures experts to provide in-depth analysis. [Institutional Diagnosis]: Recently, domestic spot copper concentrate TCs have continued to decline, and news of copper mine suspensions in Peru has emerged. Will the tight ore supply further support copper prices? Wang Yunfei, Head of Investment Consulting Department at Shanjin Futures: Ore supply has recently experienced another phase of tightness. Currently, we believe the main impact remains at the sentiment level, as the effect of specific mine production cuts on the full year still requires further comprehensive observation of supply conditions. From our perspective, against the backdrop of high smelting output, we remain cautious about the supply disruptions caused by the mine level. Overall, we consider the reliability of this support to be unstable. Xiao Jing, Senior Researcher at SDIC Futures Research Institute: In Q1 and throughout April, the supply side has felt the impact of the mine-smelting game, with copper concentrate TCs deepening in negative territory to -$30, continuously providing bullish trading themes for the market. Since March, there have been numerous unexpected incidents at both the mine and smelter levels. In addition to the recent suspension of operations at Peru's Antamina copper mine due to an accident, overseas smelters such as Glencore's Chilean smelter and Southern Mexico Group's smelter have also reported production cuts or suspensions. The low TCs reality, along with themes such as early maintenance or sudden interruptions at smelters like Tongling Nonferrous, has been consistently reflected in the high average copper prices in Q1. However, the extremely low TCs have not led to effective production cuts at smelters. Domestically, for example, against the backdrop of sulfuric acid, by-products, and recycled copper scrap supplementation, SMM's domestic refined copper production in Q1 increased by 9.4%, adding over 270,000 mt, nearing 3.2 million mt. Meanwhile, statistical agencies generally revised down the MoM decline in domestic copper production in April. From a smelter production perspective, the impact of extremely low TCs on production in the first four months has been quite limited. Currently, it is expected that in May and June, as the peak season ends, consumption cools, and average prices decline, if TCs still show no signs of bottoming out, and imported copper scrap raw materials remain tight, smelters may take more proactive measures in maintenance and production cuts. This year, the cumulative growth rate of domestic smelter supply output will likely follow a similar trend to last year, gradually converging. We believe the price support from mine or smelting themes will weaken. Firstly, the impact of the suspension of Peru's major mine on actual production is relatively limited, as the ore processing system may continue to operate. Secondly, as we enter mid-year, the outline of the full-year copper concentrate supply will become more certain after dynamic adjustments. Currently, major copper-producing countries such as Chile, Peru, Congo, and Zambia have clear incremental targets for 2025. As domestic peak season consumption comes to an end, and the global economic growth outlook is significantly disrupted by US tariffs, the market will shift more pricing components to demand in May and June. Liu Chao, Senior Nonferrous Metals Researcher at BOC International Futures Research and Consulting Department: Peru's Antamina mine produced 435,400 mt of copper in 2023. The mine is jointly owned by Glencore, BHP, Teck Resources, and Mitsubishi Group, with a copper grade of 1.23% and a zinc grade of 1.03%. Due to the mine's significant global share of metal production, the sudden accident has caused some disruption to copper and zinc supply, driving copper prices higher again. The duration of the mine's suspension has not yet been finalized, and the short-term impact continues. In the long term, copper concentrate TCs continue to decline, and mine supply tightness is intensifying. Current copper concentrate TCs are significantly lower than the full-year long-term contract TCs, and the suspension of copper mines further strengthens the expectation of tight supply, supporting copper prices. Zhong Yuan, Investment Consulting Department at Anliang Futures: If we view TCs as an asset price, similar to stock prices that accelerate sharply before ending, the continuous decline of TCs in negative territory in 2025 is the final stage of the bullwhip effect transmission in the industry chain. At this stage, positive news for copper mines may reinforce the downward trend of TCs. Conversely, if positive news emerges and TCs do not fall, it may signal a bottoming out. [Institutional Diagnosis]: Over the past two weeks, the destocking of domestic refined copper social inventories has accelerated. What are the main factors driving this? How long will the destocking trend last? Wang Yunfei, Head of Investment Consulting Department at Shanjin Futures: We believe the recent continuous decline in refined copper inventories is mainly due to two reasons: First, the transfer of inventories under the tariff backdrop. From the inventory distribution, the proportion of domestic inventories in the global total has been declining recently, while US copper inventories have risen significantly. The transfer of inventories has undoubtedly accelerated the decline in domestic inventories. Second, the front-loading effect of domestic power copper consumption. Although the planned growth rate of power investment in 2025 appears to slow compared to 2024, data up to Q1 shows that the actual growth rate is significantly better than the same period in 2024, thus providing a significant boost to copper demand. The current destocking trend may slow down in the latter part of Q2. On one hand, the rush export effect brought by tariffs will fade, and overseas inventories will gradually face demand tests. On the other hand, the actual demand growth in China, especially in the power sector, may gradually slow down, and the off-season effect is expected to cool overall demand. Xiao Jing, Senior Researcher at SDIC Futures Research Institute: The reciprocal tariff turmoil had a significant systemic impact on LME copper during the Qingming Festival holiday, with substantial losses for overseas long-positioned funds. In contrast, the early-month copper price slide provided a favorable opportunity for domestic mid- and downstream players to restock. After SHFE copper quickly stabilized near 71,000, the price rebound was mainly supported by peak season consumption. During this period, spot price adjustments led the gains, and the Shanghai-Guangdong premium widened. By late April, SMM's domestic social inventories had also accelerated their decline to below 200,000 mt, close to the destocking levels of 2022 and 2023. Strong domestic consumption is mainly due to: 1) In response to Trump policy risks, the output inertia of various manufacturing sectors has been strong since Q4 last year, and most key tracked industrial products maintained high output and export growth rates in Q1; 2) This year's power grid investment has been strong, with the sector's investment growth rate reaching 24% in Q1, significantly boosting copper wire and cable demand; 3) Under the expectation of US tariffs on the copper industry, US copper prices hit highs, and the US-LME price spread widened, continuously attracting cross-border transfers of copper spot logistics, including from China. Under multiple factors, this year's peak season copper consumption has been strong. Looking ahead, the relatively resilient domestic sector remains the power grid, while other electromechanical products, as the largest export area to the US, face higher uncertainty. In March, the convergence of home appliance product growth rates was already observed, which will negatively impact copper consumption. We initially believe destocking may continue until mid-May, around the 150,000 mt level. Liu Chao, Senior Nonferrous Metals Researcher at BOC International Futures Research and Consulting Department: The decline in copper concentrate inventories is closely related to supply in South America. During the domestic summer, which is winter in South America, copper concentrate production declines, and domestic imported ore port arrivals decrease, leading to a drop in domestic ore inventories. It is expected that domestic ore shortages will persist until late August, when rising temperatures in South America will increase copper mine operating rates, boosting domestic ore supply. Zhong Yuan, Investment Consulting Department at Anliang Futures: Currently in the traditional peak season, periodic destocking is normal, but the statistics I have seen do not show a significant or accelerated destocking trend. Based on experience, destocking will likely continue at least until the end of the 2505 contract. [Institutional Diagnosis]: Currently, copper prices are still in a corrective rebound phase. Considering the current macro and supply-demand dynamics, can the rebound in copper futures be sustained? Wang Yunfei, Head of Investment Consulting Department at Shanjin Futures: From a macro perspective, there are no positive factors on the demand side. The slow progress of US tariff negotiations and the impact of rate hikes on demand will gradually manifest. Domestically, although policies are in place, their implementation remains highly restrained, and we believe this approach will not change in the short term, so a surge in demand is unlikely. On the supply side, although ore supply is tight, smelting output remains high. As long as there is no significant downward adjustment in annual mine output expectations, the full-year refined copper supply-demand balance is unlikely to show a deficit. Therefore, we conclude that copper prices have largely entered a phase of considerable fluctuation, with current prices at the upper end of the range, making further rebound unlikely. Xiao Jing, Senior Researcher at SDIC Futures Research Institute: SHFE copper extended its gains this week, but the most-traded contract has not yet effectively filled the Qingming Festival gap, indicating significant pressure at the gap level. The SHFE copper rebound is largely complete, and the market will likely return to fluctuation, while remaining vigilant against sudden statements from the US government. The impact of systemic shocks has shifted from short-term bursts to medium-term pressure, suggesting a need for greater imagination regarding overseas uncertainties. Copper remains an industrial metal, and with a shift in consumption expectations, it is more likely to be configured as a risk asset. Liu Chao, Senior Nonferrous Metals Researcher at BOC International Futures Research and Consulting Department: Current macro tariff wars and trade barriers have led to a downward revision of global economic growth, reducing overall demand. The pullback in the US dollar and China's policy front-loading have strengthened demand expectations, amplifying market uncertainty. On the fundamental side, US-China tariff increases have significantly impacted imported copper scrap, reducing domestic copper scrap supply. Supply shortages and insufficient demand have made the strong fluctuation characteristics of copper prices evident, and this structure is expected to continue. Zhong Yuan, Investment Consulting Department at Anliang Futures: For the full year of 2025, copper prices are likely to fluctuate considerably, with anything above 80,000 defined as a bubble! Therefore, after copper prices rebound to key levels, the momentum may be hindered!